Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for local governments to scientifically analyze the economic development environment and growth conditions during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on new growth points in industries, expanding demand, and improving enterprise efficiency to solidify new economic momentum for the "15th Five-Year Plan" period [5][6][9]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Development Goals - The article highlights that China is entering a new phase of stable economic growth, necessitating a careful determination of growth targets by local governments [6][7]. - It notes that internal demand has become the core driving force for economic growth, with consumption's contribution to GDP increasing from 50% at the end of the "11th Five-Year Plan" to 57% at the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [7]. - The article stresses the importance of setting realistic growth targets that are neither overly ambitious nor pessimistic, based on local resources and industrial foundations [8][9]. Group 2: Industry Development and Innovation - The article suggests that economic growth fundamentally relies on the cultivation and release of new industrial growth points, urging local governments to respect industrial evolution and identify promising sectors [11][12]. - It points out the significant shift in China's industrial structure, with the service sector's contribution to GDP rising to 56.7% by the end of 2024, while the industrial sector's contribution is declining [11][12]. - The article recommends focusing on enhancing the service sector's role in economic growth, particularly in lower-tier cities where its importance is often overlooked [12][14]. Group 3: Consumption and Demand Expansion - The article emphasizes the critical role of consumer purchasing power and market demand in driving economic growth, advocating for a focus on consumption-driven opportunities [15][16]. - It distinguishes between goods consumption and service consumption, noting that service consumption has a more direct local economic impact [16]. - The article highlights the need to adapt to changing consumer trends, particularly among younger and older demographics, to stimulate new consumption growth [18][19]. Group 4: Enterprise Development and Innovation - The article underscores the importance of enterprise vitality and development levels in determining local economic quality and efficiency, advocating for systematic policies to enhance enterprise efficiency and innovation [19][20]. - It calls for a dual focus on technological and model innovation to improve enterprise competitiveness, especially in the context of digital transformation [20][22]. - The article stresses the need for tailored strategies to enhance innovation capabilities across different regions, considering their unique industrial bases and development stages [23][24].

Group 1: Economic Growth Drivers - The article emphasizes the need for local economies to identify new growth drivers during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on supply-side, demand-side, and enterprise development [1][5][6] - The contribution of the industrial sector to GDP is declining, with industrial value added expected to account for 30% of GDP by 2024, down 9.3 percentage points from the end of the "11th Five-Year Plan" [1][2] - The service sector has become the core driver of economic growth, projected to account for 56.7% of GDP by the end of 2024, increasing by 11.6 percentage points since the end of the "11th Five-Year Plan" [1][2] Group 2: Role of Service Industry - The service industry is crucial for economic resilience and sustainability, requiring local governments to enhance service systems and urban service capabilities [2][3] - Regions with rapid service industry revenue growth, such as Hainan, Fujian, and Shandong, should prioritize service sector development as a key component of modern industrial systems [2][4] - The article highlights the need for western regions to balance industrial growth with the development of local service industries, particularly in production-related and lifestyle services [2][4] Group 3: Consumer Demand and Trends - Consumer demand is shifting towards service consumption, with service retail expected to grow by 6.2% in 2024, outpacing goods retail growth by 3 percentage points [3][4] - The article notes a transformation in consumption patterns, driven by demographic changes and technological integration, leading to new consumption trends such as the "single economy" and "silver economy" [4][5] - Local governments are encouraged to innovate service offerings and consumption scenarios to stimulate economic growth [4][5] Group 4: Enterprise Development and Innovation - The vitality and development level of market entities are critical for local economic quality and efficiency, necessitating a focus on innovation across various sectors [5][6] - The article stresses the importance of both original technology and model innovation, with traditional industries also needing to embrace technological upgrades for efficiency gains [5][6] - Regional disparities in R&D investment are highlighted, with eastern regions leading in R&D spending, while western regions show strong growth in external R&D funding [6]

Quantitative Factors and Construction 1. Factor Name: Market Style Factor - **Construction Idea**: This factor tracks the relative performance and volatility of different market styles, such as large-cap vs. small-cap and value vs. growth styles, to understand market preferences and dynamics[10][12] - **Construction Process**: - **Style Performance**: Measure the relative returns of large-cap vs. small-cap stocks and value vs. growth stocks over the week - **Style Volatility**: Calculate the weekly changes in the volatility of these style returns - **Evaluation**: The factor effectively captures the market's preference for growth over value and the balanced performance between large-cap and small-cap stocks during the observed period[10][12] 2. Factor Name: Market Structure Factor - **Construction Idea**: This factor evaluates the dispersion of industry returns, the speed of industry rotation, and the concentration of trading activity to assess market structure and dynamics[10][12] - **Construction Process**: - **Industry Return Dispersion**: Compute the standard deviation of excess returns across industry indices - **Industry Rotation Speed**: Measure the rate of change in leading industries over the week - **Trading Concentration**: Calculate the proportion of total trading volume contributed by the top 100 stocks and the top 5 industries - **Evaluation**: The factor highlights an increase in industry return dispersion and trading concentration, indicating a more focused market structure[10][12] 3. Factor Name: Market Activity Factor - **Construction Idea**: This factor tracks market volatility and turnover rates to gauge overall market activity levels[11][12] - **Construction Process**: - **Volatility**: Measure the weekly changes in index-level volatility - **Turnover Rate**: Calculate the weekly changes in market turnover rates - **Evaluation**: The factor shows a rise in both market volatility and turnover, reflecting heightened market activity during the week[11][12] 4. Factor Name: Commodity Market Factor - **Construction Idea**: This factor monitors the strength of trends, basis momentum, volatility, and liquidity in commodity markets to understand their dynamics[19][25] - **Construction Process**: - **Trend Strength**: Assess the directional movement of commodity indices - **Basis Momentum**: Measure the changes in the basis (spot price vs. futures price) for energy and precious metals - **Volatility**: Calculate the weekly changes in commodity price volatility - **Liquidity**: Track the weekly changes in trading volume and bid-ask spreads - **Evaluation**: The factor indicates a decline in trend strength and volatility, while basis momentum for energy and precious metals increased, and liquidity showed a downward trend[19][25] 5. Factor Name: Option Market Factor - **Construction Idea**: This factor evaluates implied volatility, skewness, and discount rates in the options market to assess market sentiment and hedging activity[28] - **Construction Process**: - **Implied Volatility**: Track the implied volatility levels of the SSE 50 and CSI 1000 indices - **Skewness and Discount Rates**: Measure the skewness of put options and the implied discount rates for these indices - **Evaluation**: The factor reveals high implied volatility levels, with an increase in put skewness and discount rates for the CSI 1000 index, suggesting rising hedging activity and market divergence[28] 6. Factor Name: Convertible Bond Market Factor - **Construction Idea**: This factor examines the premium rates and trading activity in the convertible bond market to understand its dynamics[30] - **Construction Process**: - **Premium Rates**: Analyze the average premium rates for bonds with low conversion premiums - **Trading Activity**: Measure the weekly changes in trading volume - **Evaluation**: The factor shows an increase in the proportion of low-premium bonds and stable trading activity, indicating potential short-term adjustments in the market[30] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Market Style Factor - **Large-Cap vs. Small-Cap Performance**: Balanced[10][12] - **Value vs. Growth Performance**: Growth outperformed value[10][12] - **Style Volatility**: Large-cap/small-cap volatility decreased; value/growth volatility increased[10][12] 2. Market Structure Factor - **Industry Return Dispersion**: Increased[10][12] - **Industry Rotation Speed**: Peaked and then declined[10][12] - **Trading Concentration**: Increased for both top 100 stocks and top 5 industries[10][12] 3. Market Activity Factor - **Volatility**: Increased[11][12] - **Turnover Rate**: Increased[11][12] 4. Commodity Market Factor - **Trend Strength**: Declined[19][25] - **Basis Momentum**: Increased for energy and precious metals[19][25] - **Volatility**: Declined[19][25] - **Liquidity**: Declined[19][25] 5. Option Market Factor - **Implied Volatility**: High for SSE 50 and CSI 1000[28] - **Skewness and Discount Rates**: Increased for CSI 1000[28] 6. Convertible Bond Market Factor - **Premium Rates**: Low-premium bonds increased[30] - **Trading Activity**: Stable[30]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for local governments to scientifically analyze the economic development environment and growth conditions during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on identifying new growth points in industries, expanding consumption, and improving enterprise efficiency to ensure sustainable economic growth in China [4][5][6]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Development Goals - The economic growth in China is transitioning from high-speed to stable growth, necessitating a shift in how local governments set growth targets during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [5][6]. - The contribution of consumption to GDP has increased, with its share rising from 50% at the end of the "11th Five-Year Plan" to 57% by the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [7]. - Local governments should set realistic growth targets based on local resources, industry foundations, and development realities, ensuring that these targets are both feasible and positively guiding [8][9]. Group 2: Industry Development and Structural Changes - The service sector has become a core driver of economic growth, with its contribution to GDP increasing from approximately 45% during the "11th Five-Year Plan" to 60% currently [10][11]. - Local governments are encouraged to focus on the service industry, especially in lower-tier cities, to enhance employment and improve living standards [11][12]. - The industrial structure is shifting, with traditional industries declining while high-end manufacturing is on the rise, necessitating targeted policies to support these transitions [12][13]. Group 3: Consumption as a Growth Driver - The article highlights the importance of consumer purchasing power and market demand as fundamental to economic growth, advocating for a focus on consumption-driven growth [16][17]. - Service consumption is identified as having a more direct impact on local economies compared to goods consumption, which often benefits external regions [17][18]. - The growth of service consumption is expected to continue, with a projected increase in service retail sales by 6.2% in 2024, outpacing goods retail sales [18][19]. Group 4: Innovation and Enterprise Development - The vitality and development level of enterprises directly influence the quality and efficiency of local economic operations, making enterprise development a priority [21][22]. - Local governments should promote both technological and model innovations within enterprises to enhance efficiency and competitiveness [23][24]. - There is a need for tailored policies that consider regional characteristics to boost the innovation capabilities of enterprises across different areas [25][26].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term market is expected to maintain a cautiously optimistic attitude with a priority on defensive allocation, while in the medium - term, one should firmly grasp the technology mainline and Hong Kong stock dividends [6]. - Despite the approaching September 3rd parade which may keep the market optimistic, there is a risk of increased volatility in mid - to early September [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Review - **Market Performance**: Last week, most major market indices rose, with the ChiNext 50 having a significant increase of 9.27%. Among major industries, the Information Technology Index and the Materials Index performed well, with weekly increases of 5.69% and 3.38% respectively, while the Energy Index and the Financial Index declined by 1.74% and 1.44% respectively. Among the 30 Shenwan primary industries, 14 industries rose, with Communication, Non - Ferrous Metals, and Electronics leading the gains at 12.38%, 7.16%, and 6.28% respectively, and Textile and Apparel, Coal, and Banking experiencing the largest declines at 2.87%, 2.76%, and 2.13% respectively [7][15][18]. - **Trading Heat**: The average daily trading volume of the Wind All - A Index last week was 298.3131 billion yuan (previous value: 258.748 billion yuan), at a historically high level (three - year historical quantile of 100.00%) [7][22]. - **Valuation Tracking**: As of August 29, 2025, the valuation (PE_TTM) of the Wind All - A Index was 22.15, up 0.28 from the previous week, at the 89.30% quantile of the past five - year history. Among the 30 Shenwan primary industries, 13 industries saw a valuation (PE_TTM) recovery [7][29]. Market Observation - **Analysis of Recent Market Liquidity Changes** - The A - share market has been oscillating and differentiating this week. The Shanghai Composite Index adjusted significantly mid - week and rebounded slightly at the end, closing down for the week. The market is currently focused on the Fed's future stance and the next - stage trends of the market and tech stocks [5]. - The Fed's future stance depends on whether Powell gets re - elected. Before the Fed chair change next mid - year, whether Trump changes his stance on Powell's non - re - election is the core variable for the Fed's policy direction in the next year [5]. - From the perspective of fund inflows, the total trading volume of ETFs tracking the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices has been rising, while the net redemption of ChiNext and STAR Market ETFs has increased. Since August, the margin trading balance has been rising, and the growth rate of margin trading and securities lending balance has accelerated in the past two weeks. Retail funds turned slightly net - outflows this week, while institutional funds have been in a net - outflow state since early August, with the trend intensifying this week [5]. - **Market Outlook and Investment Recommendations** - Market trends may show the following characteristics: the broader market/CSI 300 Index will mainly oscillate with limited upside potential; the defensive allocation value of the dividend sector is emerging; short - term fluctuations in the STAR Market and ChiNext will increase, but the medium - term mainline remains unchanged. If there is an adjustment in September, it should be seen as a strategic opportunity for mid - term technology layout [6]. - With the approaching September 3rd parade, the market may remain optimistic in the near term. However, considering the current liquidity situation, one should be aware of the risk of increased volatility in mid - to early September. Short - term investment should be cautiously optimistic with a priority on defensive allocation, and in the medium - term, one should firmly grasp the technology mainline and Hong Kong stock dividends [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for local governments to scientifically analyze the economic development environment and growth conditions during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on identifying new growth points in industries, expanding consumer demand, and enhancing enterprise efficiency to ensure sustainable economic growth during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period [7][10][29] Group 1: Economic Growth Dynamics - The fundamental driving force for economic growth comes from the cultivation and release of industrial growth points, necessitating a respect for industrial evolution and a focus on identifying potential development sectors [7][12] - By the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan," domestic consumption has become the core driving force for economic growth, with consumption's contribution to GDP rising from 50% at the end of the "11th Five-Year Plan" to 57% [9][10] - The number of legal entities in China has increased significantly, with a year-on-year growth of 52.7%, indicating a robust support for industrial transformation and upgrading [9] Group 2: Service Industry and Economic Structure - The service industry has become a core driver of economic growth, with its contribution to GDP rising from approximately 45% during the "11th Five-Year Plan" to 60% [13][14] - The article highlights the need for local governments to recognize the importance of the service sector, especially in lower-tier cities, where there is often a focus on industrial projects at the expense of service industry development [14][18] - The structural changes in the industrial sector show a decline in traditional industries while high-end manufacturing is on the rise, necessitating a shift in policy focus towards sectors with greater growth potential [15][16] Group 3: Consumer Demand and Economic Development - Consumer purchasing power and market demand are critical for sustainable economic growth, with a call for local governments to focus on opportunities from the consumption side [19][20] - Service consumption has a more direct impact on local economies compared to goods consumption, as it tends to generate local employment and income [21][22] - The article suggests that local governments should enhance support for various types of consumption, particularly in service sectors, to stimulate economic growth [22][23] Group 4: Innovation and Enterprise Development - The vitality and development level of enterprises directly influence the quality and efficiency of local economic operations, highlighting the need for a focus on enhancing enterprise efficiency and innovation capabilities [24][25] - The article advocates for a dual approach to innovation, emphasizing both technological and model innovation to improve enterprise competitiveness [25][26] - Different regions in China exhibit varying levels of innovation capacity, with eastern regions leading in R&D spending, while western regions are encouraged to leverage external innovation resources [27][28]

数据来源于沪深交易所、公开资料等。 9月2日，大市回调，国防军工板块延续调整行情。高标股领跌，华丰科技重挫12.38%，菲利华跌9%， 航天科技、中国长城跌超4%。长城军工、中航成飞宽幅震荡，顽强收涨。 风险提示：国防军工ETF被动跟踪中证军工指数，该指数基日为2004.12.31，发布于2013.12.26。2020- 2024年分年度历史收益分别为：67.91%、14.28%、-25.74%、-11.02%、8.20%。指数成份股构成根据该 指数编制规则适时调整，其回测历史业绩不预示指数未来表现。以上个股均为标的指数成份股，仅作展 示，个股描述不作为任何形式的投资建议，也不代表管理人旗下任何基金的持仓信息和交易动向。基金 管理人评估的本基金的风险等级为R3-中风险，适宜平衡型（C3）及以上投资者，适当性匹配意见请以 销售机构为准。任何在本文出现的信息（包括但不限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形 式的表述等）均只作为参考，投资人须对任何自主决定的投资行为负责。另，本文中的任何观点、分析 及预测不构成对阅读者任何形式的投资建议，亦不对因使用本文内容所引发的直接或间接损失负任何责 任。基金投资有风险 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a short-term adjustment, particularly in the technology sector, but the overall bullish trend remains intact with potential for recovery after the current fluctuations [1][5][9]. Market Performance - A-shares faced a decline today, with the ChiNext Index dropping nearly 3% and over 4,000 stocks falling [2][5]. - The total trading volume in the two markets reached 2.87 trillion yuan, with defensive sectors like banking and precious metals rising against the backdrop of a struggling technology sector [4][8]. Reasons for Market Adjustment - The technology sector had previously accumulated significant gains, leading to strong profit-taking sentiment and a technical need for adjustment [8]. - External market influences, particularly a drop in the US tech sector, raised concerns about the global AI chip industry's performance, negatively impacting sentiment in the A-share market [8]. - There is a structural shift in capital from high-valuation growth sectors to lower-valuation defensive sectors, exacerbating market volatility [8]. Bull Market Outlook - Despite the current adjustments, many institutions believe the upward trend in the A-share market has not changed, and a recovery is expected post-adjustment [9][12]. - The margin trading balance has reached a historical high, indicating sustained market enthusiasm [9][12]. Institutional Insights - Morgan Stanley and other institutions do not view the market as overheated, citing that current trading volumes and margin balances are not at historical highs, suggesting manageable risk levels [12]. - Analysts expect the market to maintain a high-level operation with potential for structural rotation among sectors, particularly focusing on technology and finance [12][13]. Recommended Investment Sectors - Institutions are optimistic about five key sectors for investment: technology growth (AI, semiconductors), high-end manufacturing (military, new energy), consumer goods (liquor), cyclical sectors (aquaculture, resources), and financials (brokerage, insurance) [13][14]. - Specific recommendations include focusing on resource, innovative pharmaceuticals, consumer electronics, and military sectors for September [14]. Fund Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to review their holdings, especially those heavily invested in sectors that have recently declined, and adjust their positions based on risk tolerance [16]. - Defensive strategies, such as "fixed income plus" products, are recommended to balance equity risks in a low-interest environment [17]. - Long-term investment strategies, including dollar-cost averaging in promising sectors like AI and semiconductors, are encouraged to capitalize on market corrections [18].

Group 1 - The Huatai Securities 2025 Autumn Investment Summit was held in Shanghai, focusing on global macro and market outlook for the second half of 2025, with discussions on growth opportunities in digital assets, Hong Kong market allocation, AI+, new consumption 3.0, and innovative pharmaceuticals [1] - Experts from various institutions discussed key topics such as the 14th Five-Year Plan, structural changes in global trade and financial systems, and current international situations [1][3] - The summit highlighted the importance of the upcoming 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session and the 14th Five-Year Plan proposals as critical policy windows for China's next five years [3] Group 2 - Huatai Securities' Chief Macro Economist Yi Han noted that domestic fiscal policies have exceeded expectations, improving liquidity for residents, government, and markets, with a continued focus on stable growth policies [5] - The firm anticipates that the trend of "stocks outperforming bonds" will continue, with market attention shifting towards whether corporate performance can follow the recovery in valuations and sentiment [5][6] - The current A-share market is seen as being in an upward cycle, with optimism about future performance, while the U.S. stock market is expected to face greater risks in the coming months [6][7] Group 3 - The report suggests that the Hong Kong market is gaining importance as a capital market with core and scarce assets, moving beyond being viewed merely as an alternative to A-shares [8] - The analysis indicates that the current liquidity in the market is relatively abundant, and there are opportunities for left-side positioning in the consumer sector, driven by long-term fundamentals [7] - The focus on industry allocation and structural opportunities in the Hong Kong market is emphasized, particularly in sectors like internet, software, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes three main development lines during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period: the fourth industrial revolution led by AI, the construction of a new development pattern based on a new security framework, and the internal structural transformation of China [2][3][4]. - The first main line focuses on AI as a key driver of the fourth industrial revolution, with significant global attention and investment in AI technologies from major economies like the US and EU [3][4]. - The second main line addresses the need for a new development pattern in response to the changing global landscape and the strategic restructuring of economic globalization led by the US, which poses new challenges for China [4][5]. Group 2 - The third main line involves internal structural transformation, which includes three major tasks: adjusting demand structure, managing the relationship between emerging and traditional industries, and optimizing urban-rural structures [5][6]. - The adjustment of demand structure aims to enhance domestic consumption as a fundamental strategy to address overcapacity and economic downturns, requiring a long-term approach [5][8]. - The optimization of urban-rural structures necessitates significant breakthroughs in reducing disparities in social security and public services, particularly addressing the urbanization of approximately 300 million migrant workers [5][6]. Group 3 - Governance system reform is identified as the core to overcoming internal structural transformation challenges, emphasizing the need for government reform to modernize governance capabilities [6][7]. - The government should shift its focus from a rough assessment system based on industrialization and urbanization to a more refined management approach that prioritizes service industries and consumer welfare [7][8]. - Expanding domestic demand is crucial, with a focus on increasing consumption through income distribution reforms and innovative consumption scenarios, rather than relying solely on short-term stimulus [8][9]. Group 4 - The phenomenon of "involution" in industries like solar energy and electric vehicles has become a pressing issue, necessitating strategies to address overcapacity and avoid excessive competition [9][10]. - Differentiated strategies are required for managing overcapacity, with traditional industries facing potential shutdowns while new industries should be allowed to innovate and maintain competitive advantages [10][11]. - The government's "anti-involution" actions have transitioned from a slogan to a structured initiative, with regulatory measures being implemented to ensure fair competition and address the root causes of overcapacity [11][12].