据王世江介绍，行业当前正处于新一轮深度调整期，行业深层次的供需错配尚未解决，企业的经营依然 面临较大挑战。 编辑 岳彩周 校对 赵琳 不久前的1月28日，工业和信息化部党组书记、部长李乐成主持召开光伏行业企业家座谈会，深入贯彻 落实党中央、国务院决策部署，听取重点企业及光伏行业协会对"反内卷"工作的意见建议，研究部署推 进光伏行业治理工作。 上述会议强调，当前形势下，"反内卷"是光伏行业规范治理的主要矛盾，各部门要加强协同、同向发 力，综合运用产能调控、标准引领、质量监督、价格执法、防范垄断风险、知识产权保护、促进技术进 步等手段，以市场化、法治化手段共同推动光伏行业回归良性竞争、理性发展的轨道。光伏行业协会要 积极履行职能，依法依规推进行业自律，创新方式方法，坚决破除行业"内卷式"竞争。 新京报贝壳财经讯（记者朱玥怡）2月5日，工业和信息化部电子信息司副司长王世江在中国光伏行业协 会主办的光伏行业2025年发展回顾与2026年形势展望研讨会上表示，治理行业内卷将是今年工作的重中 之重。 ...

Macro Strategy - The report discusses the impact of liquidity shocks on commodity markets, highlighting that certain commodities, which are fundamentally supported by supply and demand improvements, have been "misjudged" during these shocks. As the risk center stabilizes, these commodities may return to their fundamental pricing logic, presenting better entry opportunities compared to previous rotation phases [1][10]. Financial Products - The report reviews the performance of gold ETFs in January 2026, noting that macro data and policy expectations fluctuated, with interest rate cut expectations providing temporary support for gold asset allocation. The report emphasizes the importance of U.S. macro data, monetary policy statements, and geopolitical developments in influencing gold prices in February 2026 [2][12]. - The report indicates that as of January 30, 2026, the total market value of the Huaan Gold ETF reached 127.526 billion yuan, with a trading volume of 74.397 billion yuan on that day [2][12]. Fixed Income - The report analyzes the outflow of deposits under different scenarios, estimating that by the end of 2026, the total amount of term deposits could reach 188.62 trillion yuan under a low growth scenario, with an excess outflow of 32.3 trillion yuan. In a medium growth scenario, the total could reach 193.11 trillion yuan with an excess outflow of 27.8 trillion yuan, and in a high growth scenario, it could reach 197.60 trillion yuan with an excess outflow of 21.5 trillion yuan [3][4][16]. Industry Recommendations - Huatai Securities plans to issue zero-coupon convertible bonds worth 10 billion yuan to support its overseas business development. The initial conversion price is set at 19.7 HKD per share, with a dilution effect on H shares but minimal impact on A shares. This financing method is seen as beneficial for the company's international business growth [5][17]. - Baba Foods reported a revenue of 1.859 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 11.2%. The company is expected to accelerate growth in 2026 through new store formats and acquisitions, with projected net profits of 270 million, 330 million, and 400 million yuan for 2025-2027 [7][20]. - Fute Technology, a leading player in the vehicle power supply industry, is expected to see significant profit growth, with projected net profits of 230 million, 365 million, and 535 million yuan for 2025-2027, driven by expanding customer bases and technological advancements [8][21].

Core Viewpoint - The luxury car market in China is experiencing dramatic changes in 2026, with Mercedes-Benz facing pressure to lower prices despite its long-standing commitment to avoiding price wars, leading to a complex situation between maintaining brand value and responding to market realities [1][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Mercedes-Benz has historically positioned itself against price wars, emphasizing the importance of brand value and customer interests, as stated by the CEO during a media communication event [3]. - In 2025, the company faced a challenging market environment, resulting in a 19% year-on-year decline in sales to 575,000 units, highlighting the increasing difficulties faced by its dealer network [4][5]. Group 2: Dealer Network Challenges - Dealers reported significant operational challenges, including high inventory levels, severe price discrepancies, long rebate cycles, and excessive business assessment pressures, prompting the dealer association to communicate these issues to Mercedes-Benz [5]. - Following three letters from the dealer association, Mercedes-Benz agreed to reduce the suggested retail prices of key models by 10% starting February 1, 2026, with some models seeing price cuts exceeding 60,000 yuan [5][6]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - The decision to lower prices poses a risk to Mercedes-Benz's brand perception, potentially leading to consumer concerns about asset depreciation and affecting the resale value in the second-hand market [6]. - The year 2026 marks significant anniversaries for Mercedes-Benz, including the 140th anniversary of the invention of the automobile and the 40th anniversary of its entry into the Chinese market, making the price reduction a critical balancing act for the company [6].

Macro and Strategy - The report discusses the "anti-involution" policy aimed at addressing overcapacity and disorderly competition, marking a significant shift in the construction of a unified national market [6][8] - The policy evolution is divided into three phases, with the current phase focusing on systematic implementation to eliminate local protectionism and market segmentation [6][7] - The report emphasizes the need for administrative coordination to break down local protection and industry barriers, while also advocating for a long-term focus on reasonable profit margins for enterprises [8][9] Industry and Company - The electronic industry report highlights the rapid emergence of AI applications, with a focus on the computing power chain becoming a central investment theme [16] - The automotive industry report notes that the penetration rate of NOA (Navigation on Autopilot) in urban areas has exceeded 20%, with significant investments in autonomous driving technologies [23][24] - The agricultural sector report indicates a rise in potassium fertilizer contract prices and increased demand for phosphate rock driven by energy storage needs [3] - The real estate sector in Hong Kong shows signs of recovery, with a 21% increase in private residential transaction volume in 2025, marking the second-highest level since 2013 [33][34] - The report on public REITs indicates a continued divergence in performance across different asset types, with a strong long-term allocation value expected as the market matures [10][11] Investment Strategies - The report suggests focusing on sectors benefiting from policy support and strong fundamentals, such as affordable housing and new infrastructure related to digital economy upgrades [10][11] - In the automotive sector, recommendations include investing in companies with strong new product cycles and those involved in intelligent driving technologies [26][29] - The report advises on maintaining a balanced asset allocation strategy, particularly in light of potential market volatility and economic recovery signals [12][13]

登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 分析师：张刚 资料来源：Wind,中原证券 -8% -1% 6% 14% 21% 28% 35% 42% 2025.02 2025.06 2025.10 2026.02 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | 上证指数 | | 4,102.20 | 0.85 | | 深证成指 | | 14,156.27 | 0.21 | | 创业板指 | | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 | 300 | 4,698.68 | 0.83 | | 上证 | 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 | 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 | 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 | 100 | 4,591.65 | 0.86 | | 中证 | 500 | 8,299.06 | 0.15 | | 中证 | 1000 | 6 ...

| | | | Millio | 国投期货 | 黑色金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2026年02月04日 | | 螺纹 | ☆☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | ☆☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆☆ | | | 器联 | ★☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★☆☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面小幅反弹。淡季螺纹表需环比下滑，产量短期趋稳，库存继续累积。热卷需求、产量均小幅上升，库存继续下降，压 力逐步缓解。钢厂利润欠佳，下游承接能力不足，高炉复产放缓，铁水产量趋稳。从下游行业看，地产投资降幅继续扩大，基 建、制造业投资增速持续回落，内需整体依然偏弱，钢材出口 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The core contradiction of glass lies in the game between "supply contraction expectation" (cold repair + policy) and "weak real - demand" (real - estate downturn + seasonal off - season), and high inventory is the biggest pressure for the market rebound. Although the anti - involution and the withdrawal of the three - red - line policy for real - estate enterprises provide short - term emotional support, and the market strengthens in the short term due to the sharp rise in energy costs and the possible shutdown of Dongtai Zhongbo's production line, the glass supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially improved. With the approaching Spring Festival, downstream demand is ending, and the short - term price may run with a slight upward trend but the increase may be limited. Attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - **Futures Market**: The glass main contract opened and closed higher today, showing a strengthening trend within the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands' three tracks opened upward, indicating a short - term slightly upward trend. The pressure is near the previous high, and the support is near the 30 - day moving average of the daily line. The trading volume increased by 764,000 lots compared with yesterday, and the open interest decreased by 1,452 lots. The intraday high was 1,120, the low was 1,085, and the closing price was 1,109, up 36 yuan/ton or 3.36% compared with yesterday's settlement price [1] - **Spot Market**: In North China, prices were stable, shipments were okay, and trading weakened; in East China, enterprises mostly kept prices stable, downstream demand was weak, and purchases were mainly for rigid needs; in Central China, the market was stable, middle and downstream buyers were rational, and the focus was on collecting payments; in South China, except for a few processing plants rushing to work, most downstream enterprises were on holiday, and the purchasing sentiment declined [1] - **Basis**: The spot price in North China was 1,020, and the basis was - 89 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 29, the total output of float glass this week was 1.057 million tons, the same as the previous week and - 3.375% year - on - year. The industry average operating rate was 71.86%, up 0.24% week - on - week; the industry average capacity utilization rate was 75.7%, the same as the previous week (data has been revised since August 31, 2025) [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 52.564 million heavy boxes, down 652,000 heavy boxes or 1.22% week - on - week and up 21.24% year - on - year. The inventory days were 22.8 days, 0.3 days less than the previous period. As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand of most enterprises from north to south is gradually coming to an end [2] - **Import and Export**: In December 2025, the domestic float glass export was 87,000 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons or 2.59% compared with the previous month; the net export was 72,400 tons, a 4.51% increase month - on - month. The cumulative export volume from January to December was 1.0292 million tons, an increase of 497,700 tons or 93.63% compared with the same period last year [2] - **Profit**: The weekly average profit of natural - gas float glass was - 155.12 yuan/ton, up 3.57 yuan/ton week - on - week; the weekly average profit of coal - gas float glass was - 68.5 yuan/ton, down 3.39 yuan/ton week - on - week; the weekly average profit of petroleum - coke float glass was 1.07 yuan/ton, up 2.85 yuan/ton week - on - week [2][3] Main Logic Summary - The core contradiction of glass is the game between "supply contraction expectation" and "weak real - demand", and high inventory is the biggest pressure for the market rebound. Although there is short - term emotional support, the supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially improved. The short - term price may run with a slight upward trend but the increase may be limited. Attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Market Perform" for the basic chemical industry [3][4]. Core Insights - In January 2026, the CITIC Basic Chemical Industry Index rose by 10.13%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 6.37 percentage points and the CSI 300 Index by 8.48 percentage points, ranking 6th among 30 CITIC first-level industries [3][7]. - The report highlights a significant recovery in chemical product prices, with notable increases in liquid chlorine, lithium hydroxide, acetonitrile, lithium carbonate, and butadiene [3][8]. - The investment strategy for February 2026 suggests focusing on industries benefiting from anti-involution policies, such as chlor-alkali, pesticides, and polyester filament, as well as coal chemical sectors benefiting from rising oil prices [3][8]. Market Review - The basic chemical sector saw 30 out of 33 sub-industries increase in January 2026, with the dye chemicals, chlor-alkali, and spandex industries leading with increases of 30.94%, 26.69%, and 20.16% respectively [3][8]. - Among 529 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 424 stocks rose while 104 fell, with the top gainers including SDIC, Hongbaoli, and Runtu, which saw increases of 90.53%, 68.92%, and 68.54% respectively [3][8]. Product Price Tracking - In January 2026, international oil prices surged, with WTI crude oil increasing by 13.57% to $65.21 per barrel and Brent crude oil rising by 16.17% to $70.69 per barrel [3][8]. - Of the 319 products tracked, 207 saw price increases, with the largest gains in liquid chlorine (71.43%), lithium hydroxide (44.10%), acetonitrile (32.86%), lithium carbonate (25.58%), and butadiene (25.31%) [3][8]. Industry and Company News - In 2025, the chemical raw materials and products manufacturing industry achieved a total profit of 376.62 billion yuan, although this represented a 7.3% decline from the previous year [15][17]. - The report notes that the chemical industry is expected to benefit from ongoing anti-involution policies, which may strengthen supply-side constraints and favor certain sub-industries [3][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "In line with the market" for the basic chemical industry [3][4]. Core Insights - In January 2026, the CITIC Basic Chemical Industry Index rose by 10.13%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 6.37 percentage points and the CSI 300 Index by 8.48 percentage points, ranking 6th among 30 CITIC first-level industries [3][7]. - The report highlights a significant recovery in chemical product prices, with notable increases in liquid chlorine, lithium hydroxide, acetonitrile, lithium carbonate, and butadiene [3][8]. - The investment strategy for February 2026 suggests focusing on industries benefiting from anti-involution policies, such as chlor-alkali, pesticides, and polyester filament, as well as coal chemical sectors benefiting from rising oil prices [3][8]. Market Review - The basic chemical sector saw 30 out of 33 sub-industries increase in January 2026, with the dyeing chemicals, chlor-alkali, and spandex industries leading with increases of 30.94%, 26.69%, and 20.16% respectively [3][8]. - Among 529 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 424 stocks rose while 104 fell, with the top gainers including SDIC, Hongbaoli, and Runtu, which saw increases of 90.53%, 68.92%, and 68.54% respectively [3][8]. Product Price Tracking - In January 2026, international oil prices saw significant increases, with WTI crude oil rising by 13.57% to $65.21 per barrel and Brent crude oil increasing by 16.17% to $70.69 per barrel [3][8]. - Among 319 tracked products, 207 saw price increases, with the largest gains in liquid chlorine (71.43%), lithium hydroxide (44.10%), and acetonitrile (32.86%) [3][8]. Industry and Company News - In 2025, the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry achieved a total profit of 376.62 billion yuan, although this represented a 7.3% decline from the previous year [15][17]. - The report notes that the chemical industry is expected to benefit from ongoing anti-involution policies, which may strengthen supply-side constraints and favor certain sub-industries [3][8].

Group 1: Market Overview - On February 3, 2026, SHFE silver futures closed at 21,446 CNY/kg, down 16.71% from the previous day[1] - The premium of SHFE silver futures over LME silver decreased from 29.8% at the end of January to 7.46% by February 3[1] - SHFE silver futures rose by 5.93% in the night session on February 4, closing at 22,393 CNY/kg[1] Group 2: Precious Metals Insights - The long-term narrative for precious metals remains unchanged, with expectations of continued support for gold prices due to "de-dollarization" and loose fiscal and monetary policies[3] - The volatility of silver futures remains high, with implied volatility reaching 148% on February 2 and remaining above 100% on February 3, compared to an average of 27% in 2025[5] - Gold futures implied volatility was close to 40% as of February 3, significantly higher than the 19% average for 2025[5] Group 3: Commodity Market Dynamics - The liquidity shock has ended, as indicated by the opening of the silver futures limit down on February 3, suggesting a stabilization in market risks[5] - The commodity market is expected to return to fundamental pricing logic for certain products that were "wronged" during the liquidity crisis[5] - The core logic of the commodity market remains intact despite the liquidity shock, with solid fundamentals for certain commodities still offering investment value[5] Group 4: Sector-Specific Analysis - Non-ferrous metals like copper and aluminum are expected to benefit from new economic demands driven by AI and green energy, despite recent price adjustments[6] - The chemical sector is experiencing a structural demand shift, with emerging industries driving growth, indicating potential for continued market improvement in 2026[6] - New energy metals, particularly lithium carbonate, are projected to achieve supply-demand balance, presenting bullish investment opportunities[6]