Report's Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The macroeconomic data in June was mixed. The domestic economy showed strong resilience, with robust industrial production, better-than-expected exports, and a comprehensive rebound in financial data. However, the upward pressure on price indices increased, the growth rate of real estate sales declined, and the rebound of the manufacturing PMI was weak. The domestic economy is in a state of having a bottom but lacking upward momentum, and the pressure on nominal GDP is higher than that on real GDP. Macroeconomic policies need to increase support to boost market confidence. "Boosting domestic demand and combating cut - throat competition" will be important policy approaches. Despite the twists and turns, the macroeconomy and asset prices in 2025 are expected to continue the upward repair trend [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Manufacturing PMI Continues to Rebound but Remains Weak - In June, the manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Large - scale enterprises' PMI was 51.2%, up 0.5 percentage points; medium - sized enterprises' PMI was 48.6%, up 1.1 percentage points; small - sized enterprises' PMI was 47.3%, down 2.0 percentage points. Among the five classification indices of the manufacturing PMI, the production index, new order index, and supplier delivery time index were above the critical point, while the raw material inventory index and employment index were below it [4]. - The production index was 51.0%, up 0.3 percentage points, indicating accelerated production activities. The new order index was 50.2%, up 0.4 percentage points, showing improved market demand. The raw material inventory index was 48.0%, up 0.6 percentage points, indicating a narrowing decline in raw material inventory. The employment index was 47.9%, down 0.2 percentage points, showing a slight decline in employment. The supplier delivery time index was 50.2%, up 0.2 percentage points, indicating faster delivery [4][5]. - In May, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage point. In June, it was 50.5%, up 0.2 percentage points. The construction business activity index in June was 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points, and the service business activity index was 50.1%, down 0.1 percentage point. The rebound of the manufacturing PMI was weak, indicating that the recovery momentum of the domestic economy still needs to be strengthened [7]. 2. CPI Rose 0.1% Year - on - Year in April, and PPI Fell 2.7% Year - on - Year - In June 2025, the national CPI rose 0.1% year - on - year. Urban CPI rose 0.1%, rural CPI fell 0.2%. Food prices fell 0.3%, non - food prices rose 0.1%. Consumer goods prices fell 0.2%, service prices rose 0.5%. The CPI in the first half of the year fell 0.1% compared with the same period last year. The CPI fell 0.1% month - on - month. The core CPI excluding food and energy rose 0.7% year - on - year, reaching a seven - month high, showing signs of bottoming out [8][9]. - In June 2025, the national PPI fell 3.6% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month. The industrial producer purchase price fell 4.3% year - on - year and 0.7% month - on - month. In the first half of the year, the PPI fell 2.8% compared with the same period last year. Industries such as coal, ferrous metals, and petrochemicals had large year - on - year declines, dragging down the PPI. The "anti - cut - throat competition" policy is expected to improve the over - capacity situation and boost the PPI's recovery [11]. 3. Both Exports and Imports in June Were Better than Expected - In June, China's exports increased 5.8% year - on - year in US dollars, 1.0 percentage point faster than in May. Imports increased 1.1% year - on - year, up 4.5 percentage points from a decline in May. The trade surplus was $114.77 billion, an increase of $11.55 billion. Domestic exports showed strong resilience despite overseas tariff impacts [13]. - In June, China's exports to the US were $38.17 billion, with the year - on - year decline narrowing to - 16.1%. Exports to the EU were $49.22 billion, with a growth rate of 7.6%. Exports to ASEAN countries were $58.185 billion, up 16.8% year - on - year. Exports to Japan were $13.435 billion, up 6.6% year - on - year. Exports in the second quarter were better than expected, and exports in 2025 are likely to remain strong [15][16]. 4. Financial Data in June Rebounded Comprehensively, and the M1 - M2 Gap Narrowed Further - In the first half of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing was 22.83 trillion yuan, 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. By the end of June, the stock of social financing was 430.22 trillion yuan, up 8.9% year - on - year. The growth rate of social financing rebounded due to increased government bond issuance [18][19][24]. - In terms of resident credit, in May, short - term loans increased by 262.1 billion yuan, 15 billion yuan more than the same period last year, and medium - and long - term loans increased by 335.3 billion yuan, 15.1 billion yuan more than the same period last year. Consumption credit demand was weak, but mortgage loans were stable. In terms of enterprise credit, in May, short - term loans increased by 1160 billion yuan, 490 billion yuan more than the same period last year, and medium - and long - term loans increased by 1010 billion yuan, 40 billion yuan more than the same period last year. Enterprise confidence and expectations were weak, and financing demand was not strong [20][22]. - At the end of June, the balance of broad - money (M2) was 330.29 trillion yuan, up 8.3% year - on - year, and the balance of narrow - money (M1) was 113.95 trillion yuan, up 4.6% year - on - year. The M1 - M2 gap narrowed to 3.7%. M1 and M2 were in an upward trend [22]. 5. Industrial Production Was Stable, and the Consumption Growth Rate Slightly Declined - In June, the added value of large - scale industries increased 6.8% year - on - year in real terms and 0.50% month - on - month. From January to June, it increased 6.4% year - on - year. Industrial production remained at a relatively high level. In June, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 4,228.7 billion yuan, up 4.8% year - on - year. From January to June, they were 24,545.8 billion yuan, up 5.0% year - on - year. The growth rate of consumer goods was within a reasonable range, benefiting from consumption subsidies and trade - in policies [25][26]. - In the first half of 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 24,865.4 billion yuan, up 2.8% year - on - year. Manufacturing investment remained at a high level, while the growth rates of infrastructure investment and real - estate development investment further declined [27]. 6. The Growth Rate of Real Estate Sales Declined but Remained at the Bottoming - Out Stage - From January to June, the sales area of new commercial housing was 458.51 million square meters, down 3.5% year - on - year, and the sales volume was 4,424.1 billion yuan, down 5.5% year - on - year. In June, the growth rates of real - estate sales volume and area continued to decline but were still within a reasonable range. The construction, new - start, and completion areas of real estate were still in a downward trend. The inventory of commercial housing slightly decreased [29][31][33]. - In June, the real - estate market cooled in the second quarter, but it is still in an improving trend, including the stabilization of commercial - housing sales growth and a significant rebound in second - hand housing transactions. The real - estate market is at the bottoming - out stage. With the decline of the base, the year - on - year decline in the sales area and volume of commercial housing will further narrow. Real - estate policies still have room for further strengthening [36][37][39]. 7. Summary and Outlook - In general, the domestic economic data in June was mixed. Industrial production was strong, and exports maintained high growth. However, the recovery momentum of the domestic economy needs to be strengthened, the price index was weak, the real - estate market was still at the bottoming - out stage, and the endogenous consumption demand was weak. The macroeconomy is in a state of having a bottom but lacking upward momentum [40]. - The main factors affecting the poor perception of the macroeconomy and the repair of asset prices are the overall lack of market demand and the structural over - capacity in multiple industries, leading to downward pressure on the price index and weak recovery of corporate profits. "Boosting domestic demand and combating cut - throat competition" will be important policy approaches. In 2025, the macroeconomy and asset prices are expected to continue the upward repair trend, and patience is needed [40].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The crude oil market is affected by factors such as the weakening of the near - month spread, stubborn CPI in the US, and potential sanctions on Russia, with short - term volatility and a mid - term bearish outlook [1][2]. - The asphalt market has a neutral - to - high valuation, with short - term supply - demand weakness and expected high - level fluctuations in unilateral prices and a strengthening trend in crack spreads [3][5]. - The liquefied gas market has sufficient supply and weak demand, and the price is expected to run weakly [5][8]. - The natural gas market in the US is expected to see higher prices due to strong demand and increased LNG exports, while the European market is expected to be volatile due to stable supply and weak demand [8][9]. - The fuel oil market has different situations for high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils, with a wait - and - see attitude for trading [10][12]. - The PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, PR, and other polyester - related markets are expected to fluctuate and be sorted out, with a wait - and - see attitude for trading [13][15][16]. - The styrene market is expected to show an oscillating trend due to factors such as supply and demand changes and inventory accumulation [23][25]. - The PVC market has a weak supply - demand situation, with a bearish view on prices in the medium and short term, while the caustic soda market has a reduced upward drive, and short - term long positions are recommended to take profits on rallies [26][28]. - The PP and PE markets have a large capacity release pressure in the third quarter, with a bearish view on prices in the medium and short term [29][31]. - The soda ash market is expected to show a relatively strong performance in price, with a wait - and - see attitude for trading [32][35]. - The glass market is affected by the adjustment of real - estate expectations, and attention should be paid to possible logical conversions [35][37]. - The methanol market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with a wait - and - see attitude for trading and selling call options [37][40]. - The urea market is expected to be strong in the short term but weak in the short - term operation due to factors such as supply, demand, and export policies [40][42]. - The log market has a wait - and - see attitude for trading, and attention should be paid to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [43][46]. - The corrugated paper market is in a weak pattern, with a wait - and - see attitude for trading [46]. - The double - offset paper market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with paper mills having a strong willingness to support prices [48][50]. - The pulp market has a wait - and - see attitude for trading, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the high point on Tuesday [51][53]. - The butadiene rubber market has a wait - and - see attitude for trading, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the high point last Thursday [54][56]. - The natural rubber and 20 - number rubber markets have a wait - and - see attitude for trading, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the high points, and the RU2509 - NR2509 spread can be considered for intervention [57][59]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2508 contract settled at $66.52, down $0.46/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of - 0.69%; Brent2509 contract settled at $68.71, down $0.50/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of - 0.72%. SC main contract 2509 fell 2.6 to 509.3 yuan/barrel, and at night it fell 3.7 to 505.6 yuan/barrel. The Brent main - to - next - month spread was $0.94/barrel [1]. - **Related News**: US June CPI rebounded to 2.7% year - on - year, core CPI rose 2.9% year - on - year. There are potential sanctions on Russia, and the US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 19.1 million barrels in the week ending July 11, 2025 [1][2]. - **Logical Analysis**: The near - month spread of crude oil weakened, the short - term supply - demand contradiction was slightly weakened. The US CPI in June was still stubborn, the expectation of interest rate cuts was weakened, and the uncertainty of the macro - economic outlook increased. Potential sanctions on Russia may increase market disturbances [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term volatility is weak, and pay attention to the support around $68.2 for Brent. Gasoline and diesel crack spreads are stable, and options are on hold [2][3]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2509 closed at 3612 points at night (- 0.14%), BU2512 closed at 3433 points at night (- 0.17%). The spot price in Shandong on July 15 was 3550 - 4070 yuan/ton, and in the East China region it was 3670 - 3800 yuan/ton [3]. - **Related News**: The mainstream transaction prices in different regions were stable, with some price adjustments due to factors such as supply and demand and weather [3][4]. - **Logical Analysis**: Oil prices fell from a high level, the asphalt crack spread increased passively, the industrial chain profit was repaired, and the valuation was neutral - to - high. The supply and demand were weak in the short term, and both were expected to increase before the peak season at the end of the third quarter [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level fluctuations, the asphalt - crude oil spread is strong, and options are on hold [5]. Liquefied Gas - **Market Review**: PG2508 closed at 4106 at night (- 1.3%), PG2509 closed at 4016 at night (- 1.06%). The spot prices in different regions varied [5]. - **Related News**: The market trends in different regions were different, with fluctuations and adjustments [5][6]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply decreased last week, the international ship arrivals increased, the demand in the combustion and chemical fields was weak, and the inventories at ports and factories increased [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to run weakly [8]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: TTF closed at 34.445 (- 2.85%), HH closed at 3.521 (+ 1.64%), JKM closed at 12.3 (- 2.88%) [8]. - **Logical Analysis**: In the US, the natural gas inventory increased last week, the production increased, the demand was strong, and the LNG export volume increased, so the price was expected to rise. In Europe, the supply was stable, the demand was weak, and the price fell [8][9]. - **Trading Strategy**: For HH, buy on dips; for TTF, it is expected to oscillate [9]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 contract closed at 22873 at night (+ 0.21%), LU09 closed at 3642 at night (- 0.14%). The Singapore paper - cargo market had different month - spreads [10]. - **Related News**: Malaysia will implement regulations on illegal ship - to - ship crude oil transfers, and the sales volume of marine fuel oil in Singapore in the first half of 2025 decreased slightly [11]. - **Logical Analysis**: The high arrival of domestic high - sulfur spot hit the domestic high - sulfur price. The high - sulfur feed demand was expected to increase, and the low - sulfur supply increased with no specific demand driver [12][13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for unilateral trading, and pay attention to the digestion rhythm of near - term high - sulfur spot for arbitrage [13]. PX - **Market Review**: The PX2509 main contract closed at 6688 (- 90/- 1.33%) yesterday and 6712 (+ 24/+ 0.36%) at night. The spot price of PX decreased [13]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [14]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply of PX was still tight, the downstream demand was lack of support in the off - season, and it was expected to oscillate following the cost side [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate and sort out, wait and see for arbitrage and options [14]. PTA - **Market Review**: The TA509 main contract closed at 4696 (- 44/- 0.93%) yesterday and 4702 (+ 6/+ 0.13%) at night. The spot basis was stable [15]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [15]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply of PTA was expected to increase, the downstream demand was weak, and the processing fee was compressed [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate and sort out, wait and see for arbitrage and options [16]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: The EG2509 futures main contract closed at 4322 (- 35/- 0.80%) yesterday and 4301 (- 21/- 0.49%) at night. The spot basis was stable [16]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [17]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply of ethylene glycol was expected to increase, and there was an expectation of inventory accumulation in August - September, which would put pressure on the price [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate and sort out, wait and see for arbitrage and options [18]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: The PF2508 main contract closed at 6368 (- 68/- 1.06%) during the day and 6358 (- 10/- 0.16%) at night. The spot price in different regions was stable [18]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [18]. - **Logical Analysis**: The short - fiber price followed the decline of polyester raw materials, the processing difference continued to expand, and the production and sales were average [18][19]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific strategy provided, wait and see attitude implied [19]. PR (Bottle Chips) - **Market Review**: The PR2509 main contract closed at 5870 (- 50/- 0.84%) yesterday and 5874 (+ 4/+ 0.07%) at night. The spot market trading atmosphere was average [19]. - **Related News**: The export quotation of polyester bottle - chip factories was slightly reduced [19]. - **Logical Analysis**: The raw material futures fell, the bottle - chip processing fee strengthened, and the production was reduced. It was expected to oscillate and sort out following the raw material end [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate and sort out, wait and see for arbitrage and options [21]. Styrene - **Market Review**: The BZ2503 main contract closed at 6144 (- 45/- 0.73%) during the day and 6164 (+ 20/+ 0.33%) at night. The EB2508 main contract closed at 7340 (- 138/- 1.85%) during the day and 7332 (- 8/- 0.11%) at night. The spot price of pure benzene and styrene changed [23]. - **Related News**: The styrene inventory in the East China main port increased, and some styrene devices were shut down for maintenance [23][24]. - **Logical Analysis**: The pure benzene price was expected to oscillate and sort out, and the styrene price was expected to show an oscillating trend due to supply and demand changes and inventory accumulation [24][25]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate and sort out, wait and see for arbitrage and options [25][26]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The PVC spot market was slightly weak, and the caustic soda spot price in different regions was stable or slightly increased [26][27]. - **Related News**: The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong decreased [27]. - **Logical Analysis**: The PVC supply and demand were weak, the inventory increased, and there was a risk of new device production. The caustic soda price had a peak - season expectation, but the upward drive was reduced [27][28]. - **Trading Strategy**: For caustic soda, take profits on rallies for short - term long positions; for PVC, be bearish on the price in the medium and short term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [29]. PP and PE - **Market Review**: The LLDPE market price was slightly weak, and the PP spot price in different regions decreased [29]. - **Related News**: The PP and PE maintenance ratios increased [29]. - **Logical Analysis**: There was a large capacity release pressure in the third quarter, the terminal demand was weak, and the price was bearish in the medium and short term [31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Be bearish on the price in the medium and short term, wait and see for arbitrage and options [32]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The soda ash futures main 09 contract closed at 1214 yuan/ton (- 27/- 2.2%), and at night it closed at 1211 yuan (- 15/- 1.22%). The spot price in different regions changed [32]. - **Related News**: The domestic soda ash factory inventory increased, and some devices had maintenance or production plans [33]. - **Logical Analysis**: The soda ash supply decreased, the demand was weak, the inventory increased, and the profit decreased. The market expected the real - estate sector to adjust [33][34]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be relatively strong, wait and see for arbitrage and options [35]. Glass - **Market Review**: The glass futures main 09 contract closed at 1071 yuan/ton (- 31/- 2.81%), and at night it closed at 1069 yuan/ton (- 13/- 1.2%). The spot price in different regions was stable or slightly increased [35]. - **Related News**: The glass market price was stable with some increases, and the deep - processing order days decreased [35][37]. - **Logical Analysis**: The glass price was affected by the adjustment of real - estate expectations, the supply decreased last week, and attention should be paid to production and sales in the short term and cost and cold - repair in the medium term [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to possible logical conversions, wait and see for arbitrage and options [37]. Methanol - **Market Review**: The methanol futures closed at 2374 at night (- 18/- 0.75%). The spot price in different regions varied [37][38]. - **Related News**: The weekly signing volume of methanol production enterprises in the Northwest increased [39]. - **Logical Analysis**: The international methanol device start - up rate increased, the import recovered, the domestic supply was loose, and the price was expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [39][40]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate weakly, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell call options [40]. Urea - **Market Review**: The urea futures fell to 1731 (- 33/- 1.87%). The spot price decreased slightly [40][41]. - **Related News**: The urea daily production increased, and the new Indian tender price was announced [41]. - **Logical Analysis**: The urea supply was large, the demand was weak, the inventory was high, and the price was expected to be strong in the short term but weak in the short - term operation [41][42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate weakly in the short term, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell call options on rallies [42][43]. Log - **Market Review**: The log spot market was stable with some price decreases. The 9 - month contract price rose slightly [43][44]. - **Related News**: The import volume of logs and sawn timber in June decreased, and the real - estate development data was not good [43]. - **Logical Analysis**: The downstream demand was weak, and the price support and trading volume needed to be considered. The scale difference supported the disk price [44][46]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for the near - month contract, pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread, and wait and see for options [46]. Corrugated Paper - **Market Review**: The corrugated and box - board paper market was stable with some individual adjustments [46]. - **Related News**: The price of waste yellow - board paper increased, and the market trading atmosphere was average [46]. - **Logical Analysis**: The corrugated paper market was in a weak pattern, with sufficient supply and weak demand [46

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. Core Views of the Report The report provides trend forecasts and fundamental data for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc. Each commodity has its own unique market situation and influencing factors, and the report gives corresponding trend judgments and strength indicators for each commodity. Summary by Commodity Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to oscillate upward with a trend strength of 1 [2][10] - **Silver**: Expected to break through and move upward with a trend strength of 1 [2][10] Base Metals - **Copper**: Domestic spot prices are firm, supporting the price, with a trend strength of 0 [2][14] - **Zinc**: Under pressure, with a trend strength of -1 [2][16] - **Lead**: The downside may be relatively limited, with a trend strength of 0 [2][19] - **Tin**: Prices are weakening, with a trend strength of -1 [2][24] - **Aluminum**: Under pressure in the off - season; Alumina is expected to oscillate within a range; The operating rate of cast aluminum alloy is declining. Trend strengths for aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy are all 0 [2][27] - **Nickel**: The support at the ore end is loosening, and global refined nickel is accumulating marginally. Trend strength is 0 [2][33] - **Stainless Steel**: There is a game between reality and macro factors, and steel prices are oscillating. Trend strength is 0 [2][33] Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Supply - side news is causing disruptions, and high volatility may continue. Trend strength is 1 [2][36] - **Industrial Silicon**: Warehouse receipts are starting to accumulate, and attention should be paid to the upside space. Trend strength is 0 [2][39] - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to spot trading. Trend strength is 0 [2][39] - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro expectations, it is expected to oscillate strongly. Trend strength is 1 [2][40] - **Rebar**: Expected to oscillate widely. Trend strength is 0 [2][46] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Expected to oscillate widely. Trend strength is 0 [2][46] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Expected to oscillate widely. Trend strength is 0 [2][50] - **Manganese Silicide**: Expected to oscillate widely. Trend strength is 0 [2][50] - **Coke**: Expected to oscillate widely. Trend strength is 0 [2][54] - **Coking Coal**: Expected to oscillate widely. Trend strength is 0 [2][54] - **Steam Coal**: Daily consumption is recovering, and it is expected to stabilize with oscillations. Trend strength is 0 [2][57] - **Para - Xylene**: There is a negative demand feedback, and the unilateral trend is weak. [2] - **PTA**: In the off - season of demand, the unilateral trend is weak. [2] - **MEG**: With low inventory, positive spreads can be taken when the monthly spread is low. [2] - **Rubber**: Expected to oscillate. [2] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Slightly回调. [2] - **Asphalt**: Expected to oscillate within a range. [2] - **LLDPE**: Expected to oscillate weakly. [2] - **PP**: Spot prices are loosening, and trading is light. [2] - **Caustic Soda**: Costs are declining, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. [2] - **Pulp**: Expected to oscillate. [2] - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. [2] - **Methanol**: Expected to oscillate in the short term. [2] - **Urea**: Spot trading continues to be weak, and it is under pressure with oscillations. [2] - **Styrene**: Spot liquidity is being released, and it is expected to oscillate weakly. [2] - **Soda Ash**: There are few changes in the spot market. [5] - **LPG**: Expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. [5] - **PVC**: Expected to oscillate weakly. [5] - **Fuel Oil**: It fell sharply during the day session, and it may temporarily stabilize in the short term. [5] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The weakness continues, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market oscillates at a high level. [5] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Hold 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 reverse spreads lightly. [5] - **Short - Fiber**: Expected to be in a short - term oscillating market. [5] - **Bottle Chip**: Expected to oscillate in the short term, go long PR and short PF. [5] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Expected to oscillate. [5] - **Pure Benzene**: Expected to oscillate weakly. [5] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: There are doubts about the复产 in the producing areas, waiting for the evolution of contradictions. [5] - **Soybean Oil**: There is insufficient speculation about the weather of US soybeans, lacking driving forces. [5] - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans declined slightly, and Dalian soybean meal may oscillate. [5] - **Soybean No. 1**: Technically strong, the market rebounds and oscillates. [5] - **Corn**: Expected to oscillate and adjust. [5] - **Sugar**: Mainly expected to consolidate within a range. [5] - **Cotton**: Expected to maintain a slightly strong oscillation. [5] - **Egg**: The expectation of a rebound in the peak season has been fulfilled, and the sentiment of culling has declined. [5] - **Pig**: Expected to maintain oscillations. [5] - **Peanut**: There is support at the bottom. [5] Others - **Log**: Expected to oscillate repeatedly, with a trend strength of 1 [2][61]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - On July 14, equity indices and CGB futures declined, while commodity futures showed a relatively balanced performance with new energy metals leading the gains [12][15]. - For lithium carbonate, the short - term price increase is driven by supply speculation, and in the long run, the surplus logic remains. It is recommended to wait for inventory to rise and price to rebound before short - selling [19][24]. - Crude oil's production increase negative impact is being digested, and under the pattern of strong reality and weak expectation, it is expected to fluctuate. The rebound space is limited by the inventory build - up expectation [27][31]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term due to macro sentiment and inventory build - up rhythm. In the medium - and long - term, there are concerns about consumption, and a high - level short - selling strategy is advisable [33][36]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On July 14, equity indices and CGB futures declined. Among commodity futures, new energy metals led the gains. The top three gainers were lithium carbonate, silicon metal, and crude oil, while the top three decliners were Chinese jujube, aluminum, and cast aluminum alloy [12][13][15]. 1.2 Daily Rise 1.2.1 Lithium Carbonate - On July 14, lithium carbonate rose 3.7% to 66480 yuan/ton. The price increase is due to supply speculation under improved fundamentals, with weak supply - demand drive. In the long run, the surplus logic remains. Short - term upstream - downstream game is intense, and warehouse receipts have decreased rapidly. It is recommended to avoid risks and short - sell at a high level after inventory rises and price rebounds [19][23]. - Market attention to the photovoltaic industry's "anti - involution" and supply - side reform has increased, and lithium carbonate has followed the upward trend. The "Yichun Mines Approval Problem" news had no impact on production. Supply - demand fundamentals have not changed much, and warehouse receipt volume is the key. Supply has increased, but imports may decline in July - August. Demand growth was high from January to June, and the July off - season impact is limited. Social inventory is accumulating, and warehouse receipt inventory has decreased in July, but may recover in August. Policy changes include domestic "anti - involution" sentiment and the US "Big Beautiful Act" affecting demand [20][22][24]. 1.2.2 Crude Oil - On July 14, crude oil rose 2.6% to 527.5 yuan/barrel. The negative impact of production increase is being digested, and inventory build - up is limited. Under the pattern of strong reality and weak expectation, it is expected to fluctuate. The rebound space is limited by the inventory build - up expectation. Refinery operating rates are high during the peak demand season, but wait for refinery gross profit and operating rate to decline and inventory to accumulate [27][30][31]. 1.3 Daily Drop 1.3.1 Aluminum - On July 14, aluminum fell 1.4% to 20415 yuan/ton. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate due to macro sentiment and inventory build - up rhythm. In the medium - and long - term, there are concerns about consumption. China's electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increased in June, and downstream industry average operating rate decreased slightly this week. Short - term anti - involution expectation supports the price, but fundamentals show marginal weakening, and the subsequent price depends on real consumption [33][34][36]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - China's goods trade import and export in the first half of the year reached 21.79 trillion yuan, a YoY increase of 2.9%. Exports were 13 trillion yuan, up 7.2%, and imports were 8.79 trillion yuan, down 2.7%. In June, import and export growth rates were positive and rising [39]. - China will implement zero - tariff treatment for 53 African countries having diplomatic relations with it. Since December 1 last year, China has given zero - tariff treatment to all least - developed countries having diplomatic relations with it, and imports from these countries achieved double - digit growth in the first half of this year [39]. - China - US trade decreased by 9.3% YoY in the first half of the year. Affected by the US "reciprocal tariffs", it changed from growth in Q1 to decline in Q2. Recent Geneva and London talks have achieved progress, and both sides are implementing the London Framework outcomes [39][40]. 2.2 Industry News - The increment of China's social financing scale from January to June was 22.83 trillion yuan, 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. RMB loans to the real economy increased by 12.74 trillion yuan, corporate bond net financing was 1.15 trillion yuan, and government bond net financing was 7.66 trillion yuan [40]. - It is reasonable for small and medium - sized banks to appropriately increase bond holdings within the supervision - permitted scope, but they need to balance investment returns and risk - taking [40].

Equity Market - Deutsche Bank's July Macroeconomic Observations cover US and European stock markets [1] Fiscal & Bond Market - The report includes observations on US and European fiscal and bond markets [1]

Core Viewpoint - The chief economist of CITIC Securities, Mingming, indicates that the highlights of China's incremental policies in the second half of the year may stem from innovations in policy tools, given the strong economic performance in the first half of the year, with a growth rate of 5.3% exceeding market expectations [1] Group 1 - In the first half of the year, China's economic total showed steady improvement and structural optimization, achieving a growth rate of 5.3% [1] - The government has historically implemented expansionary total policies in the second half of the year to effectively support growth [1] - Given the satisfactory macroeconomic results in the first half and the full utilization of annual policy funding, incremental policies in the second half may focus on innovative policy tools [1] Group 2 - The innovative policy tools are expected to target weak links in the current macroeconomic landscape [1] - Key areas for continued support in the second half include real estate storage, service industry, consumption, and the continuation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and "15th Five-Year Plan" [1]

今天上午10时，国务院新闻办举行新闻发布会，国家统计局公布了今年上半年经济数据。国家统计局副局长盛来运表示，上半年，我国有效实施更加积极 有为的宏观政策，国民经济顶住压力、迎难而上，经济运行总体平稳、稳中向好。初步核算， 上半年国内生产总值660536亿元，按不变价格计算，同比 增长5.3% 。 盛来运表示， 今年以来，国际环境复杂多变、国际经贸秩序遭受重创，不稳定性、不确定性增加，面对复杂局面在以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领 导下，各地区各部门认真贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署，坚持统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，着力稳就业、 稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，国民经济顶压前行、稳定运行，主要指标好于预期，高质量发展扎实推进，经济保持了稳中有进、稳中向好的发展态势。在 此，我想用四句话来概括上半年经济运行的主要特点： . . 来源 |国家统计局、央视新闻 编辑丨丁开艳 一是"稳"的态势持续。 上半年一个很突出的特点就是经济运行"稳"。从观察宏观经济的四大指标来看，增长是稳中略升，上半年GDP同比增长5.3%，其 中一季度是5.4%，二季度是5.2%，上半年的增速比去年同期和全年均提升 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the overall stability and positive trends in China's economy during the first half of the year, driven by effective macroeconomic policies and a focus on high-quality development [1][12]. Group 1: Agriculture and Livestock - Agricultural value added increased by 3.7% year-on-year, with summer grain production totaling 149.74 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.1% from the previous year [2]. - Livestock production saw a growth of 2.8%, with pork, beef, and poultry production increasing by 1.3%, 4.5%, and 7.4% respectively [2]. Group 2: Industrial Production - Industrial value added for large enterprises grew by 6.4% year-on-year, with manufacturing increasing by 7.0% [3]. - Equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors showed strong growth, with increases of 10.2% and 9.5% respectively [3]. Group 3: Service Sector - The service sector's value added grew by 5.5%, with significant contributions from information transmission, software, and IT services, which increased by 11.1% [5]. - The service industry production index rose by 6.0% year-on-year, indicating robust growth in modern service sectors [5]. Group 4: Consumer Market - Total retail sales of consumer goods reached 2,454.58 billion yuan, growing by 5.0% year-on-year, with urban retail sales increasing by 5.0% [6]. - E-commerce sales amounted to 742.95 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.5% increase, with physical goods online retail sales growing by 6.0% [6]. Group 5: Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 2,486.54 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.8% [7]. - Manufacturing investment grew by 7.5%, while real estate development investment declined by 11.2% [7][8]. Group 6: Trade and Exports - Total goods import and export value reached 2,178.76 billion yuan, with exports growing by 7.2% [9]. - Private enterprises accounted for 57.3% of total trade, indicating a shift in trade dynamics [9]. Group 7: Price Stability and Inflation - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) saw a slight decline of 0.1% year-on-year, with food prices decreasing by 0.3% [10]. - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.4%, indicating moderate inflationary pressures [10]. Group 8: Employment and Income - The urban unemployment rate averaged 5.2%, showing a slight decrease, while the average disposable income per capita reached 21,840 yuan, a nominal increase of 5.3% [11][12]. - Rural residents experienced a faster income growth rate compared to urban residents, with rural disposable income increasing by 6.2% [12].

铜价中长期或震荡上行 ◎记者 霍星羽 今年上半年，铜价先是震荡上行，4月初急剧下降，后又返身上行。上海钢联数据显示，上半年国内电 解铜价格在72073元/吨至82725元/吨的区间内震荡。展望下半年，业内人士认为，短期内，伦敦、纽约 两市期铜的价差或走阔。矿端扰动仍未休，铜的基本面仍然偏紧。若美联储下半年降息节奏符合市场预 期，铜价或获得宏观经济层面的支撑。中长期看，铜价或仍震荡上行。 短期内伦铜、沪铜补跌 美国总统特朗普7月8日表示，将对所有进口到美国的铜征收50%的新关税，但没有透露新关税生效具体 时间。 华鑫期货研究所所长章孜海在接受上海证券报记者采访时表示，目前纽约铜价较伦铜价格高出2500美 元/吨左右，两个交易所之间呈现非常割裂的状态。短期内，美国进口铜的成本跃升，纽约铜价或上 涨，而伦铜、沪铜近期因库存增加、资金离场，面临调整可能。 中信建投期货高级分析师张维鑫表示，伦敦金属交易所、纽约商品交易所、上海期货交易所三个市场价 格将有一定分歧，最终目标是伦铜、纽约铜价差达到50%左右，实现方式是美国铜价格增长放缓或轻微 下跌，同时沪铜、伦铜补跌。 也有一些国际巨头的铜产量同比下滑。2025年一季度， ...

Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-frequency Macro Diffusion Index A turned negative, while Index B showed seasonal decline, indicating stable economic growth momentum[1] - Consumer sector performance improved, while real estate remained stable and investment showed a decline[1] - Index B standardized decreased by 0.14, aligning with historical averages[1] Price Trends - Food and non-food prices increased, with July CPI expected to rise by approximately 0.5% month-on-month, maintaining a year-on-year rate of 0.1%[2] - PPI is projected to remain flat month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline expected to reach -3.4%[2] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, while the Shanghai Composite Index is high, suggesting a potential rise in the ten-year government bond yield and a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index next week[1][18] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of July 18, 2025, is 2.24%, compared to the current average of 1.65%[19] Key Economic Data - Fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth stands at 3.70%[3] - Retail sales year-on-year growth for the month is at 6.40%[3] - Export growth for the month is recorded at 4.80%[3] - M2 money supply growth is at 7.90%[3]