免责声明 | 贵金属期现日报 | | | | TE FEAR | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | 2026年1月8日 | | | | | | | 国内期货收盘价 | | | | | | | 品种 | 1月7日 | 1月6日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | AU2602合约 | 998.90 | 1004.98 | -6.08 | -0.60% | 元/克 | | AG2604合约 | 19290 | 19452 | -162 | -0.83% | 元/千克 | | PT2606合约 | 598.50 | 616.80 | -18.30 | -2.97% | 元/克 | | PD2606合约 | 475.95 | 471.90 | 4.05 | 0.86% | | | 外盘期货收盘价 | | | | | | | 品种 | 1月7日 | 1月6日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | COMEX黄金主力合约 | 4467.10 | 4505.70 | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Pulp: ★★★, suggesting a clearer long - term trend and suitable investment opportunities [1] - Sugar: ★★★, showing a clearer long - term trend and current investment prospects [1] - Apple: ★★★, representing a clearer long - term trend and available investment chances [1] - Timber: ★★★, meaning a clearer long - term trend and proper investment opportunities [1] - 20 - rubber: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term balance between long and short trends with poor operability on the current market [1] - Natural rubber: ☆☆☆, representing a short - term balance of long and short trends and poor market operability [1] - Butadiene rubber: ★★★, suggesting a clearer long - term trend and appropriate investment opportunities [1] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes multiple soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, providing market conditions, supply - demand situations, and inventory data for each, and giving corresponding operation suggestions [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton prices dropped significantly today with a large reduction in positions, and the recent rise was mainly driven by expectations. The downstream situation is average, and spot sales are normal with a stable - to - weak basis [2] - Although new cotton production has increased significantly, commercial inventory is lower year - on - year, and the sales progress is faster, providing strong support to the market. Demand remains stable during the off - season [2] - As of December 25th, cumulative processed lint reached 669.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 75.8 million tons. As of December 15th, national commercial cotton inventory was 534.9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.63 million tons [2] - Spinning mills' demand for raw materials is resilient, with low finished - product inventory, but downstream orders are average. It is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar prices fluctuated. Internationally, the focus is on the production expectation gap in the Northern Hemisphere. In the 25/26 sugar - making season, India's production progress is fast with a significant year - on - year increase in sugar output, while Thailand's progress is slow and output is lower than expected [3] - Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar prices fluctuated. In December in Guangxi, both production and sales decreased. December production was 180.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 43.1 million tons; sales were 79.54 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 55.18 million tons; industrial inventory was 105.71 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.21 million tons [3] - The significant drop in sales is due to strong bearish sentiment in the market. Although there is a strong expectation of increased production in Guangxi in the 25/26 season, the production progress is slow. If production cannot increase later, futures prices will rise. It is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - Futures prices fluctuated at a high level. Spot prices remained stable, and demand increased. In Shaanxi, some soft - semi - commodity fruit farmers lowered their asking prices, and their willingness to sell increased [4] - Cold - storage merchants in the origin mainly packed their own goods for the market and had less procurement of farmers' goods. Due to pre - Spring Festival stocking by merchants, cold - storage trading volume increased [4] - As of December 26th, national cold - storage apple inventory was 702.1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.76%. The destocking volume was 10.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.17% [4] - The market trading logic has shifted to demand. This year's apple quality is poor, but the purchase price is high, and the reluctance of traders and farmers to sell may affect the destocking speed. It is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, the futures prices of natural rubber RU and 20 - rubber NR dropped slightly, while the futures price of butadiene rubber BR rose slightly. Domestic natural rubber spot prices were stable, synthetic rubber spot prices rose, and the port price of external butadiene continued to rise. The price of the Thai raw - material market was stable with a slight increase [5] - Globally, natural rubber supply has entered the production - reduction period. In China, the Yunnan production area has completely stopped tapping, the Hainan production area is accelerating the stop of tapping, and the Vietnam production area will gradually stop later. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants was stable, with some plants under maintenance, and the operating rate of upstream butadiene plants continued to rise [5] - Last week, the domestic tire operating rate dropped significantly, and the finished - product inventory of Shandong tire enterprises continued to rise [5] - This week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased to 54.83 million tons. Before the festival, the social inventory of Chinese cis - butadiene rubber continued to drop to 1.47 million tons, and this week, the upstream Chinese butadiene port inventory dropped to 4.13 million tons [5] - After the festival, demand is expected to recover, natural rubber supply will decrease, synthetic rubber supply will be stable, natural rubber inventory will continue to accumulate, synthetic rubber inventory will continue to decline, cost support will strengthen, and market sentiment will weaken. It is recommended to wait and see [5] Pulp - Pulp prices dropped today. Limited by weak downstream demand, the short - term upward space may be restricted. Attention should be paid to macro and capital trends [6] - As of January 8, 2026, the sample inventory of China's main pulp ports was 200.7 million tons, an increase of 1.0 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.5%. The inventory continued to accumulate [6] - The price difference between softwood and hardwood pulp is narrowing, providing some support for softwood pulp. Recently, the external quotes of softwood and hardwood pulp have increased. Paper mills mainly purchase pulp based on rigid demand, and the rise of base - paper prices is relatively weak. It is recommended to go long at low prices [6] Timber - Futures prices fluctuated. Spot prices remained stable. Externally, quotes decreased, and domestic spot prices were weak. The short - term arrival volume will decrease [7] - As of January 2nd, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 national ports was 5.65 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 3.09%. Demand has entered the off - season, and the outbound volume has decreased recently [7] - As of January 2nd, the total national port log inventory was 267 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 5.12%. The total national log inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. Low inventory provides some support for prices. It is recommended to wait and see [7]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 www.itf.com.cn ITG国贸期货 数据日报 ----- 20/21 ----- 21/22 ------22/23 ------23/24 24/25 25/26 RM1-5 1000 258 11 800 价差数据 豆粕-菜粕 656 36 现货价差(广东) 200 豆粕-菜粕 392 6 盘面价差(主力) 07/27 08/22 10/22 10/23 11/23 12/24 01/24 02/24 升贴水-连续月 产地 美元兑人民币汇率 涨跌 盘面榨利(元/吨) (美分/蒲) 157. 00 品显 6. 9594 158 0 2025年大豆CNF升贴水走势图-连续月 (美分/蒲式耳) 2025年进口大亨盘面毛利(元/吨) 一巴西2月 一 巴西3月 巴西1月 ====== 巴西4月 · 巴西1月 巴西2月 一巴西3月 ===== 巴西4月 ----- 巴西8月 ----- 巴西6月 ----- 巴西7月 ----- 巴西8月 ==== 巴西6月 ====== 巴西7月 ====== 巴西5月 ==== 巴西5月 400 250 国际数据 200 2 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The market sentiment has pushed up the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, and their futures prices are oscillating upwards [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The price of FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5350 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the price of FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 5650 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; the price of Mn44 lump ore is 43 yuan/ton - degree; the price of small - sized semi - coke in Shenmu is 760 yuan/ton [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The spot - 03 futures price spread of ferrosilicon is - 510 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton; that of silicomanganese is - 350 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan/ton. The 2603 - 2605 spread of ferrosilicon is 28 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; that of silicomanganese is - 20 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton. The 2603 spread between silicomanganese and ferrosilicon is 140 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton; the 2605 spread is 188 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Futures Data - **Futures Contracts**: The closing price of ferrosilicon 2603 is 5860 yuan/ton, up 84 yuan; the trading volume is 329,099, and the open interest is 245,565. The closing price of ferrosilicon 2605 is 5832 yuan/ton, up 94 yuan; the trading volume is 68,763, and the open interest is 60,892. The closing price of silicomanganese 2603 is 6000 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan; the trading volume is 317,087, and the open interest is 284,324. The closing price of silicomanganese 2605 is 6020 yuan/ton, up 86 yuan; the trading volume is 242,633, and the open interest is 253,950 [3]. 3.3 Macro and Industry News - **Price Information**: On January 6, the price range of 72 ferrosilicon in different regions was 5200 - 5350 yuan/ton; the price range of 75 ferrosilicon increased, with the range in different regions being 5600 - 5800 yuan/ton. The FOB prices of 72 and 75 ferrosilicon also increased by 10 dollars/ton. The northern quotation of 6517 silicomanganese is 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton, and the southern quotation is 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton, both up 25 yuan/ton. An East - China steel mill set the price of silicomanganese at 5900 yuan/ton (acceptance, tax - included, delivered to the factory), with a purchase volume of 2000 tons. Hegang set the purchase price of 75B ferrosilicon in January at 5760 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from December, and the purchase volume was 3313 tons, an increase of 563 tons from December [3]. - **Policy News**: From July 1, 2026, restricted ferroalloy enterprises in Shaanxi will be charged an additional 0.1 yuan/kWh of electricity. Among the ferroalloy enterprises in Yulin, Shaanxi, 7 restricted - type ferrosilicon enterprises in Fugu and 2 in Shenmu are in operation. The current total daily output of ferrosilicon in Shaanxi is 2535 tons, of which the daily output of restricted - type enterprises is 845 tons, accounting for 5.72% of the national total daily output [4]. 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of ferrosilicon is 1, and that of silicomanganese is also 1 [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The peak of freight rates for the Container Shipping Index (European Line) has emerged. For the EC2602 contract, it is advisable to wait and see, while for the EC2604 contract, consider shorting at high prices. The 2602 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 1750 - 1900 points in the short term, and the 2604 and 2610 contracts should be approached with a strategy of shorting at high prices [1][12][13]. Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: On January 8, 2026, the closing price of EC2602 was 1,779.1, down 3.62% from the previous day, with a trading volume of 43,604 and an open interest of 21,811, a decrease of 3,185. The closing price of EC2604 was 1,182.0, down 1.92%, with a trading volume of 22,083 and an open interest of 26,339, an increase of 2,409 [1]. - **Freight Rate Index**: The SCFIS European route index was 1,795.83 points, up 3.1% week - on - week; the SCFIS US West route index was 1,250.12 points, down 3.9% week - on - week. The SCFI European route index was $1,690/TEU, up 10.2% bi - weekly; the SCFI US West route index was $2,188/FEU, up 9.8% bi - weekly [1]. - **Spot European Line Freight Rates**: Different carriers' spot European line freight rates from Shanghai to Rotterdam varied, with prices for $/40'GP ranging from 2,610 to 3,510 and for $/20'GP from 1,533 to 2,255 [1]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 98.74, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 6.98 [1]. 2. Market Influencing Factors - **News and Market Reaction**: After the market closed on Wednesday, MSK's fourth - week cabin opening continued to rise slightly, driving the market up on Thursday morning. Later, Yang Ming and Maersk adjusted their prices, causing the 2602 contract to decline mainly due to long - position liquidation after the peak, and the 2604 contract to decline mainly due to short - position increase [10]. - **Capacity Changes**: In the fourth week, the PA Alliance's FE4 route changed from normal operation to a blank sailing, and in the fifth week, Evergreen's CES route changed from a blank sailing to normal operation. The CES sailings in the sixth and seventh weeks were delayed by one week. The weekly average capacity in January was about 310,000 TEU, and in February, it was 287,000 TEU/week (excluding the capacity of 4 pending voyages) [10][11]. 3. Contract Valuation Analysis - **2602 Contract**: Its valuation depends on freight rate height, inflection point time, and decline rate. The 1900 - 2000 point range of the SCFIS index is estimated based on the static quotes of major carriers. After the freight rate peaks, the initial decline may not be significant, and the short - term valuation center is expected to oscillate between 1750 - 1900 points [12]. - **2604 Contract**: April is a traditional off - season for the European line. With the supply - demand situation further relaxing and the freight rate center moving down, the valuation of the 2604 contract is expected to be lower than that of the 2510 contract. It is recommended to short at high prices [13]. - **2610 Contract**: Due to geopolitical risks such as Iran's missile reconstruction and Israel's strike signals, the market's resumption of navigation expectations has declined. In the short term, focus on capital games, and in the long term, maintain a strategy of shorting at high prices [13]. 4. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) is 0, indicating a neutral trend [14].

Report Overview - The report is the Baocheng Futures Iron Ore Morning Report on January 8, 2026, analyzing the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of iron ore 2605 [1][2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Report's Core View - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is weakly stable, and the outlook for ore prices is cautiously optimistic. Although the futures price of iron ore continues to run strongly at a high level due to warm market sentiment, the supply pressure remains and the demand improvement is limited, so the upward driving force needs to be tracked [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For iron ore 2605, the short - term trend is oscillating and slightly strong, the medium - term is oscillating, and the intraday is oscillating and slightly weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is the weakly stable supply - demand pattern and cautious optimism about ore prices [2] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The commodity sentiment is warm and the positive factors remain, so the iron ore futures price continues to run strongly at a high level. However, the supply - demand pattern has not improved substantially. Steel mills have resumed production, and the terminal consumption of ore has increased, but the improvement in their profitability is limited, and the off - season steel market can't bear the increased production, so the demand increase space is limited. Meanwhile, the arrival at domestic ports has increased again and there is still room for growth in the future. Even if the shipments of miners and domestic ore production decline seasonally, the ore supply pressure remains. The subsequent changes should be monitored [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an investment rating for the soybean meal and soybean industries. Instead, it suggests a "wait - and - see" approach due to market sentiment [1] Core View - Due to market sentiment, it is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach for both soybean meal and soybean markets. The price movements of related futures and spot markets are influenced by factors such as China's soybean purchases and the expected decline in Brazil's soybean exports to China [1][3] Summary by Relevant Content 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: DCE soybean 2605 closed at 4404 yuan/ton during the day session, up 140 yuan (+3.28%), and 4388 yuan at night, up 42 yuan (+0.97%); DCE soybean meal 2605 closed at 2811 yuan/ton during the day, up 48 yuan (+1.74%), and 2807 yuan at night, up 16 yuan (+0.57%); CBOT soybean 03 closed at 1066 cents/bushel, up 9.5 cents (+0.90%); CBOT soybean meal 03 closed at 305.3 dollars/short - ton, up 6.2 dollars (+2.07%) [1] - **Spot Data**: In Shandong, the spot price range is 3100 - 3170 yuan/ton, up 10 - 30 yuan compared to the previous day; in different regions and time periods, the spot prices are related to different contract premiums. For example, in January, it is M2605 + 350/+380. In East China, the price range is 3090 - 3170 yuan/ton, up 10 - 25 yuan compared to the previous day [1] - **Industrial Data**: The daily trading volume of soybean meal (43%) is 16.35 million tons, and the weekly inventory is 105.05 million tons, showing a decrease compared to the previous period [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - On January 7, 2026, CBOT soybean futures closed higher as the US Department of Agriculture confirmed that China continued to purchase US soybeans. Private exporters reported selling 33.6 million tons of US soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/26 season. It is estimated that China has purchased more than 1000 million tons of US soybeans. However, once China's purchase volume reaches 1200 million tons, the demand for US soybeans may slow down. The head of the Brazilian Grain Exporters Association (ANEC) said that the US soybean sales to China will suppress Brazil's soybean demand this year, and ANEC estimates that Brazil's soybean exports to China will drop to 7700 million tons in 2026, a year - on - year decrease of 1000 million tons [3] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal and soybean is 0, indicating a neutral situation in the main contract price fluctuations of the day session on the reporting day [3]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The report indicates that platinum is in a state of shock to find direction, and palladium maintains a shock state [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Platinum and Palladium Fundamental Data - **Price**: The closing price of platinum futures 2606 was 598.50, with a decline of 2.97%; the price of gold - exchange platinum was 605.53, with no change; the New York platinum main - continuous (previous day) was 2290.40, with a decline of 6.74%; the London spot platinum (previous day) was 2289.70, with a decline of 4.58%. The price of palladium futures 2606 was 475.95, with an increase of 0.86%; the RMB spot palladium was 434.00, with an increase of 3.09%; the New York palladium main - continuous (previous day) was 1817.00, with a decline of 3.96%; the London spot palladium (previous day) was 1767.50, with a decline of 3.39% [2]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of Guangzhou platinum (kg) was 82,828, an increase of 17,632 compared with the previous day, and the position was 41,037, a decrease of 1,130. The trading volume of NYMEX platinum (kg) was 59,305, an increase of 2,751, and the position was 107,002, an increase of 899. The trading volume of Guangzhou palladium (kg) was 44,238, an increase of 8,209, and the position was 15,106, a decrease of 1,227. The trading volume of NYMEX palladium (kg) was 28,313, a decrease of 635, and the position was 57,529 [2]. - **ETF Position**: The platinum ETF position (ounces) (previous day) was 3,307,142, a decrease of 3,425; the palladium ETF position (ounces) (previous day) was 1,175,361, an increase of 3,495 [2]. - **Inventory**: The NYMEX platinum inventory (ounces) (previous day) was 645,366, with no change; the NYMEX palladium inventory (ounces) (previous day) was 211,306, with no change [2]. - **Spread**: The spread between PT9995 and PT2606 was 7.03, an increase of 18.30 compared with the previous day; the spread between Guangzhou platinum 2606 contract and 2610 contract was - 3.95, a decrease of 1.50. The cross - period arbitrage cost of buying Guangzhou platinum 2606 and selling 2610 was 7.37, a decrease of 0.22. The spread between the Guangzhou platinum main contract and London platinum (considering VAT) was 16.54, an increase of 9.18. The spread between the RMB spot palladium price and PD2606 was - 41.95, with no change; the spread between Guangzhou palladium 2606 contract and 2610 contract was - 4.35, with no change; the cross - period arbitrage cost of buying Guangzhou palladium 2606 and selling 2610 was 5.91, with no change; the spread between the Guangzhou palladium main contract and London palladium (considering VAT) was 27, an increase of 15.41 [2]. - **Exchange Rate**: The US dollar index was 98.74, an increase of 0.14%. The US dollar against the RMB (CNY spot) was 7.00, an increase of 0.15%; the US dollar against the offshore RMB (CNH spot) was 6.99, an increase of 0.14%; the US dollar against the RMB (6M forward) was 6.91, an increase of 0.06% [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Zelensky said that the Russia - Ukraine conflict is expected to end in the first half of 2026 [5]. - Sources said that 50 million barrels are only the first batch, and Venezuela will supply oil to the US indefinitely. The White House plans to reduce sanctions against it [5]. - US Energy Secretary Wright said that the US government plans to control Venezuela's future oil sales and hopes to fill the strategic petroleum reserve [5]. - Trump said that Venezuela's oil revenue will only be used to buy US - made products [5]. - The US said it seized a Russian - flagged oil tanker "Bella 1" related to Venezuela and an un - flagged oil tanker named "Sophia" [5]. - Trump said that the military budget in 2027 should be $1.5 trillion instead of $1 trillion [5]. - The US ADP employment in December increased by 41,000, lower than the market - expected median of 47,000 [5]. - Traders reduced their bets on the European Central Bank's monetary policy, expecting the first interest rate hike to be in March 2027 [5]. - The People's Bank of China conducted a 1.1 - trillion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation on January 8, with a term of 3 months [5]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of platinum is 0, and the trend intensity of palladium is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The agricultural products sector shows a mixed performance, with cotton and soybean meal rising strongly, while other products such as live pigs, palm oil, sugar, and eggs also present different trends [1]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Cotton - The cotton main contract 2605 continued to rise sharply, breaking through the 15,000 integer mark. The expected decline in cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026 and strong downstream demand supported the price increase [1][2]. - The new cotton sales rate increased significantly year - on - year, and downstream textile enterprises had stable orders. The operating rate of Xinjiang textile enterprises remained above 90% for a long time. The improvement of Sino - US economic and trade relations led to optimistic expectations for textile and clothing exports [2]. - The strategy is to continue to go long with a light position on dips, with support at 14,730 - 14,840 [2]. (2) Soybean Meal - The soybean meal main contract 2605 rose significantly, hitting a one - month high. The bullish atmosphere in the commodity market and the decline in domestic soybean meal inventory boosted the price [1][3]. - The inventory of domestic soybean meal was 1.135 million tons as of the end of the first week of 2026, a month - on - month decrease of 3.52%. Attention should be paid to the subsequent oil mill crushing volume and spot trading [3]. - The strategy is to close short positions [3]. (3) Live Pigs - The live pig main contract 2603 first rose and then fell, reaching a phased high. After the peak slaughter in December 2025, the slaughter plan of breeding enterprises decreased in January, and the demand was expected to pick up as the Chinese New Year approached [5]. - The strategy is to continue to go long with a light position on dips, with support at 11,700 - 11,760 [5]. (4) Palm Oil - The palm oil main contract 2605 oscillated upwards, driven by the decline in Malaysian palm oil production. Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 4.64% month - on - month to 1.84 million tons in December 2025, and the production from January 1 - 5, 2026 decreased by 34.48% month - on - month [7]. - The strategy is to conduct short - term trading for the time being [7]. (5) Sugar - The Zhengzhou sugar main contract 2605 continued to oscillate upwards. The sugar production in Guangxi in the 2025/26 season as of the end of December 2025 was 1.9419 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8095 million tons. The demand was expected to pick up during the Spring Festival [10]. - The strategy is to continue to go long with a light position [10]. (6) Eggs - The egg main contract 2603 continued to rise. The culling of old hens increased month - on - month, and farmers reduced replenishment. The Spring Festival stocking started, and market trading was active [11][13]. - The strategy is to go long with a light position on dips [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - Propylene: ★★★ [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend and poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting waiting and seeing) [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Short - fiber: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chips: ★★★ [1] 2. Core Views - The prices of various chemical futures show different trends, affected by factors such as supply and demand, cost, and policies [2][3][4] - Some products are expected to have supply - demand changes in the short - and medium - term, which will impact their prices [5][6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - The main contract of propylene futures continued to rise. Enterprises had smooth shipments and raised offers. Downstream demand was good, and the transaction center shifted upward [2] - The main contracts of plastic and polypropylene futures rose. For polyethylene, the market improved macroscopically after the holiday, and factors like cost support and reduced market supply increased trading activity. For polypropylene, stable or rising factory prices supported costs, and the pressure of spot circulation was controllable, but downstream factories were cautious [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The main contract of pure benzene futures rose slightly. The spot price in East China rebounded, and trading in Shandong improved. Imports were sufficient, and port inventory in Jiangsu continued to accumulate. Domestic supply increased, and downstream demand rose slightly. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term, and a long spread trade can be considered in the medium - term [3] - The main contract of styrene futures continued to move sideways under the suppression of the half - year line. Production and sales of enterprises were stable, and the spot trading atmosphere was average. Export news supported market sentiment, but the continuous inventory build - up of raw material pure benzene suppressed the rebound [3] Polyester - The prices of PX and PTA futures fluctuated widely, and positions decreased. Terminal demand weakened, and polyester cash flow was still poor. Before the Spring Festival,开工 is expected to decline, and demand has negative feedback pressure. In the short - term, external disturbances increase; in the medium - term, the strong expectation of PX remains, and PTA's main driver is raw materials [4] - For ethylene glycol, new domestic plants are about to be put into operation, and overseas plants are shutting down due to poor profitability. Polyester is expected to reduce production around the Spring Festival, and port inventory continues to accumulate. In the long - term, it is still under pressure, but there may be a phased improvement in the second quarter [4] - Short - fiber enterprises have low inventory, but downstream demand is weak. The absolute price fluctuates with raw materials. Band trading can be carried out according to production and demand rhythms [4] - Demand for bottle chips has weakened. The price of the futures follows raw materials, and the spot price has loosened in some areas. There are new investments in the short - term and maintenance in the future. Overcapacity is a long - term pressure, and cost is the main driver [4] Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol futures market adjusted in a fluctuating manner. Overseas plant operating rates are low, and shipments in the Middle East have slowed down. South American supply is uncertain. High coastal inventory may suppress the market in the short - term, but imports are expected to decrease significantly in the medium - term, and the port is expected to gradually reduce inventory [5] - The urea market oscillated strongly. Gas - fired plants were shut down for maintenance, commercial reserves increased at low prices, and industrial demand was mainly for rigid needs. The market is expected to rise slightly in the near future, and production enterprises are continuously reducing inventory. The supply - demand situation is temporarily tight, and the market is expected to be strong in the short - term [5] Chlor - Alkali - Affected by Shaanxi's policy on high - energy - consuming industries, PVC continued to rise. Maintenance scale decreased, supply increased, but downstream demand was weak. Production enterprises were reducing inventory, and social inventory pressure was high. In 2026, PVC is expected to reduce production capacity, and the price center is expected to rise [6] - Affected by Shaanxi's differential electricity price policy and positive macro sentiment, caustic soda oscillated strongly. The chlorine market is good, and integrated enterprises still have profits, supporting high - level operation of production. Alumina production is at a high level, but the industry is generally losing money. The future production reduction of alumina will suppress the rebound of caustic soda [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Driven by rising upstream costs and improved trading, soda ash rose strongly. The market sentiment led to inventory replenishment, and some enterprises stopped taking orders. Future supply pressure is high. Float glass and photovoltaic glass are expected to continue to reduce production capacity, and the demand for heavy soda ash is expected to decline. In the short - term, pay attention to coal price changes; in the long - term, soda ash faces over - supply pressure [7] - Driven by positive macro sentiment, glass rose strongly. Recent spot trading was good. Four production lines were shut down recently, and all three types of fuel - based production lines are losing money. Future production capacity is expected to continue to be reduced. Processing orders are still weak, and demand is insufficient. The industry is expected to reduce production capacity in the long - term, and daily melting is expected to fall below 150,000 tons [7]