【导读】多家私募竟然联手拍短剧，背后是什么原因？ 中国基金报记者 吴君 短剧的风，终于还是吹到了私募基金行业。 基金君获悉，一部《重生千禧年，我靠期货走上复仇之路》的短剧，于今年 8 月 5 日正式在 横店开拍， 9 月或将上映。 本周，该短剧的一张海报在网上流传，里面提到资本、霸总、重生、爱情、复仇等元素，非 常符合当下流行的爽剧风格。该剧出品方是三家私募基金管理人 —— 洼盈投资、山海基金、 深涵资本，据了解，该剧的剧本由某知名期货公司操刀。 根据相关海报信息，该短剧的剧情梗概是： 47 岁的盈顺（男主）原来是规模上百亿元的私募 基金的老板，他为人单纯，沉迷交易。 2025 年 4 月，特朗普宣布关税计划，国内外期货大 宗商品出现大幅波动，盈顺的资金巨亏。而盈顺妻子周雅（反派）早就出轨、借机离婚分割 财产，合作伙伴赵天阳（反派）挪用了资金，盈顺意识到被妻子和伙伴出卖，心力交瘁，突 发心梗去世。但后来盈顺重生了，并且靠期货走上复仇之路，报复害死自己的真凶赵天阳等 人。 这部短剧还是双女主设定，女主之一苏小曼是盈顺的初中同学和初恋，父亲因 "327" 国债期 货事件跳楼自杀，她深受其累未能考上大学，平日里和母 ...

【冠通研究】 沥青：震荡下行 制作日期：2025年8月8日 【策略分析】 逢高做空 供应端，本周沥青开工率环比回落1.4个百分点至31.7%，较去年同期高了5.2个百分点，沥青开 工率转而回落，仍处于近年同期偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据，8月份国内沥青预计排产241.3万吨， 环比减少12.9万吨，减幅为5.1%，同比增加35.3万吨，增幅为17.1%。本周，沥青下游各行业开工率 涨跌互现，其中道路沥青开工环比上涨2个百分点至29%，略高于前两年同期水平，受到资金和南方 降雨高温制约。本周，华东地区主力炼厂高负荷生产，加之天气好转后船发发货量良好，出货量增 加较多，全国出货量环比增加2.90%至28.03万吨，处于中性偏低水平。沥青炼厂库存存货比上周环比 继续下降，仍处于近年来同期的最低位。美国允许雪佛龙恢复在委内瑞拉开采石油，或将导致中国 购买沥青原料的贴水幅度缩小。下周江苏新海、山东个别炼厂计划复产，部分地区降雨仍将影响沥 青刚需，加之船期集中到港，原油成本支撑走弱，预计近期沥青偏弱震荡。 【期现行情】 期货方面： 今日沥青期货2510合约下跌1.58%至3478元/吨，5日均线下方，最低价在3467元/吨， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC futures oscillated within a range this week due to the game between weak supply - demand and favorable coal costs. As of August 8, 2025, the V2509 contract closed at 4,993 yuan/ton, down 0.44% from last week's close [8]. - In August, after the new production capacity is put into operation, the operating load will gradually increase, and PVC supply is expected to show an upward trend. Next week, the 900,000 - ton plant of Fujian Wanhua will operate at full capacity, and some maintenance plants will restart, so the capacity utilization rate is expected to rise month - on - month. Domestic downstream demand is in the off - season, with only rigid procurement. Although the Indian BIS certification is postponed to mid - December and the anti - dumping policy release is delayed, the rainy season still hinders the transmission of overseas demand [8]. - In terms of cost, next week, the supply and demand of domestic calcium carbide will tend to be loose, and the price may fall; the ethylene US dollar market has sufficient supply, and the price is expected to remain stable. Currently, the premium of the V2509 contract is not large, and it is expected to fluctuate slightly in the range of 4,900 - 5,100 yuan in the short term; the V2601 contract still faces pressure in the future, and technically, attention should be paid to the support around 5,040 yuan [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Price**: The V2509 contract closed at 4,993 yuan/ton, down 0.44% from last week [8]. - **Fundamentals**: - **Supply**: The PVC capacity utilization rate increased by 2.62% week - on - week to 79.46% due to the restart of plants such as Zhongyan and Zhongtai [8]. - **Demand**: The downstream PVC operating rate increased by 0.8% week - on - week to 42.85%. Among them, the pipe operating rate decreased by 0.87% week - on - week to 32.09%, and the profile operating rate decreased by 0.09% week - on - week to 36.91% [8]. - **Inventory**: The PVC social inventory increased by 7.49% week - on - week to 776,300 tons [8]. - **Cost**: The average national cost of calcium carbide method increased by 138 yuan/ton to 4,977 yuan/ton due to the shortage of calcium carbide caused by power rationing; the average national cost of ethylene method decreased by 9 yuan/ton to 5,596 yuan/ton due to the stable CFR Northeast Asia price of ethylene and slight exchange - rate fluctuations [8]. - **Profit**: The profit of calcium carbide method decreased by 231 yuan/ton to - 252 yuan/ton, and the profit of ethylene method decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 489 yuan/ton [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - **Price and Warehouse Receipts**: The V2509 contract oscillated within a range, and the number of registered warehouse receipts increased week - on - week [9]. - **Position and Spread**: As the delivery month approaches, the position of the main 09 contract decreased this week, and the 9 - 1 spread fluctuated slightly [12]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - **Spot Price - Import and Export**: The CFR China quotation was 700 US dollars (+0), and the Southeast Asian quotation was 680 US dollars (+0) [18]. - **Spot Price - Overseas**: The Indian quotation was 720 US dollars (+0) [23]. - **Spot Price - Domestic Calcium Carbide and Ethylene Methods**: The spot prices of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC in East China decreased slightly this week [26]. - **Basis**: The basis fluctuated slightly, and the futures market remained in a premium state [30]. 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Upstream - **Blue Coke and Calcium Carbide**: The prices of blue coke and calcium carbide increased this week. The blue coke operating rate was 54.22%, and the calcium carbide operating rate was 62.55% [34][39]. - **EDC and VCM**: The CIF intermediate price of VCM was 520 US dollars/ton, and the international price of EDC was 189 US dollars/ton [43]. 3.3.2 Industry Chain - **Supply - Capacity and Output**: The PVC capacity growth rate in 2025 is expected to be 10.77%. The output in July was 2.0046 million tons, a month - on - month increase [47]. - **Supply - Capacity Utilization and Maintenance**: The PVC capacity utilization rate increased slightly this week [51]. - **Demand - Downstream Operating Rate**: The pipe operating rate was 32.09%, and the profile operating rate was 36.91% [54]. - **Demand - PVC Floor Export**: The export of PVC floor products decreased month - on - month in June [58]. - **Import and Export**: In June, imports increased month - on - month and year - on - year, while exports decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year [61]. - **Inventory**: The PVC social inventory continued to accumulate [66]. - **Cost**: The cost of calcium carbide method increased month - on - month this week, while the cost of ethylene method decreased month - on - month [70]. - **Profit**: The losses of calcium carbide method and ethylene method processes deepened this week [76]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was reported at 29.19%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options was around 14.44% [81].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views Steel - Short - term steel inventory pressure is not significant, but off - season demand has low acceptance of high prices. The price of the main contract is expected to fluctuate at high levels. It is recommended to hold long positions and be cautious about chasing high prices [1]. Iron Ore - Unilateral strategy: It is recommended to short 2601 at high prices. Arbitrage strategy: It is recommended to go long on coking coal 01 and short iron ore 01 [5]. Coke - Speculative strategy: It is recommended to go long on coke 2601 at low prices. Arbitrage strategy: It is recommended to switch to a long - 9 short - 1 coke spread [8]. Coking Coal - Speculative strategy: It is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 at low prices. Arbitrage strategy: It is recommended to switch to a long - 9 short - 1 coking coal reverse spread [8]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - For rebar, prices in East, North, and South China decreased or remained flat. Futures contract prices also declined slightly. For hot - rolled coils, prices in different regions decreased or were stable, and futures contract prices dropped [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar increased by 1 yuan/ton, and the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar increased by 6 yuan/ton. Profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions increased to varying degrees [1]. Production - The daily average pig iron output decreased slightly by 0.2 to 240.5, a decline of 0.1%. The output of five major steel products increased by 1.8 to 869.2, an increase of 0.2%. Rebar output increased by 10.1 to 221.2, a growth of 4.8%, with electric - arc furnace output rising by 15.4% and converter output increasing by 3.3%. Hot - rolled coil output decreased by 7.9 to 314.9, a decline of 2.4% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 23.5 to 1375.4, an increase of 1.7%. Rebar inventory increased by 10.4 to 556.7, a growth of 1.9%. Hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 8.7 to 356.6, an increase of 2.5% [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building material trading volume decreased by 0.9 to 9.7, a decline of 8.7%. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 6.3 to 845.7, a decline of 0.7%. Rebar apparent demand increased by 7.4 to 210.8, a growth of 3.6%. Hot - rolled coil apparent demand decreased by 13.8 to 306.2, a decline of 4.3% [1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of some iron ore powders changed, with PB powder and Jinbuba powder decreasing, and Bahun powder increasing. The basis of 09 contracts for different powders also changed. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.5 to - 40.5, a decline of 1.3%, the 9 - 1 spread increased by 1.5 to 18.5, a growth of 8.8%, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 1 to 22, a decline of 4.3% [5]. Supply and Demand - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 267.3 to 2507.8, a growth of 11.9%. The global weekly shipping volume decreased by 139.1 to 3061.8, a decline of 4.3%. The monthly national import volume increased by 782 to 10594.8, a growth of 8.0%. The weekly average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.5 to 240.7, a decline of 0.6%. The weekly average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports decreased by 12.4 to 302.7, a decline of 3.9%. The monthly national pig iron output decreased by 220.9 to 7190.5, a decline of 3.0%. The monthly national crude steel output decreased by 336.1 to 8318.4, a decline of 3.9% [5]. Inventory - The port inventory increased by 83.1 to 13740.97, an increase of 0.6%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 126.9 to 9012.1, an increase of 1.4%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 1 to 20, a decline of 4.8% [5]. Coke Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged, and the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke increased by 20 to 1440, an increase of 1.4%. Coke futures contracts increased, and the coking profit decreased [8]. Supply and Demand - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.3 to 65.1, an increase of 0.4%. The daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.2 to 46.8, a decline of 0.4%. The 247 - steel - mill pig iron output decreased by 0.4 to 240.3, a decline of 0.24% [8]. Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased by 8.3 to 907.2, a decline of 0.9%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 3.9 to 69.7, a decline of 5.34%. The coke inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 7.4 to 619.3, a decline of 1.24%. The port inventory increased by 3.1 to 218.2, an increase of 1.4% [8]. Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of coking coal warehouse receipts in Shanxi and Mongolia increased. Coking coal futures contracts increased, and the basis decreased. The sample coal mine profit increased by 65 to 418, a growth of 18.4% [8]. Supply and Demand - The raw coal output increased by 6.4 to 868.7, an increase of 0.7%. The clean coal output increased by 3.1 to 444.1, an increase of 0.7% [8]. Inventory - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 13.9 to 118.8, a decline of 10.5%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 4.8 to 987.9, a decline of 0.54%. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 4.9 to 808.7, an increase of 0.6%. The port inventory decreased by 4.8 to 277.3, a decline of 1.7% [8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoint of the Report - On August 7th, industrial silicon fluctuated strongly, with the main contract 2509 closing at 8,655 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 0.46%, and the position increasing by 15,654 lots to 224,000 lots. Polysilicon fluctuated weakly, with the main contract 2509 closing at 50,110 yuan/ton, an intraday decrease of 2.8%, and the position decreasing by 2,072 lots to 136,000 lots. The policy expectation of polysilicon has peaked, and the market focus has shifted to the industrial supply pressure and weak demand structure. Continuously track the opportunity to short SI and long PS during the concentrated integration of polysilicon production capacity and the resumption of production in Southwest China of industrial silicon. Industrial silicon will be based on the cost after the cancellation of electricity price subsidies, and the resumption of production in Southwest China will be the marginal driving factor [2]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Research Viewpoint - Industrial silicon fluctuated strongly on August 7th, and polysilicon fluctuated weakly. The policy expectation of polysilicon has peaked, and the market focuses on supply pressure and weak demand. Continuously track the short SI and long PS opportunity, and industrial silicon is affected by the resumption of production in Southwest China and electricity price subsidies [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract's futures settlement price increased slightly, and most spot prices remained stable. The current lowest delivery product price was 8,800 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased to 155 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipt decreased by 105, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 4,030. The factory warehouse inventory decreased by 1,100, and the social inventory decreased by 1,100 [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract's futures settlement price decreased, and some spot prices increased. The current lowest delivery product price was 44,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount decreased to 5,500 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipt increased by 60, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 5,000 tons. The factory warehouse inventory increased slightly, and the social inventory increased slightly [4]. - **Organic Silicon**: Most of the DMC and other organic silicon spot prices remained stable, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,500 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Chart Analysis 3.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost-side Prices - Include charts of various industrial silicon brand prices, brand spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][12] 3.2 Downstream Product Prices - Include charts of DMC prices, organic silicon product prices, polysilicon prices, silicon wafer prices, battery cell prices, and component prices [13][16] 3.3 Inventory - Include charts of industrial silicon futures inventory, factory warehouse inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [19][22] 3.4 Cost and Profit - Include charts of the average cost level and average profit level of main producing areas, industrial silicon weekly cost and profit, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost and profit, and polysilicon cost and profit [25][27][31] 4. Non - core Content (Team Introduction) - The non - core content includes the introduction of the non - ferrous metals team, including the background and achievements of members such as Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi [32][33][34]

商 品 研 究 豆粕：出口较好、美豆收涨，连粕或跟随反弹 豆一：移仓换月，盘面震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2509 （元/吨） | 4134 | +16（+0.39%） 4127 -1 | （-0.02%） | | 货 期 | （元/吨） DCE豆粕2509 | 3031 | +4（+0.13%） 3036 | +16（+0.53%） | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 994.5 | +9.25（+0.94%） | | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 285.2 +4.1 | n a （+1.46%） | | | | | | （43%） 豆粕 | | | | | 2950～3000， 较昨-20至持平； M2509-60， 持平； | 现货基差M2509-100/-60/-30 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 08 月 08 日 铜：美元下跌，支撑价格 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 78,460 | 0.23% | 78360 | -0.13% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 9,671 | -0.04% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜主力合约 | 42,710 | -13,679 | 157,601 | -973 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 10,901 | -1,982 | 263,000 | -2,005 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 20,145 | -201 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 156,000 | -125 | 7.13% | 0.13% | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel Products (including Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil)**: Policy still has disturbances, with high-level fluctuations. The short - term trend is volatile, and the overall view is cautious, with a tendency towards a bearish outlook [3][4][5]. - **Iron Ore**: Industry fundamentals are weakening, and prices are likely to face pressure. The investment rating is to be cautiously bearish [7][8][9]. - **Coke**: Policy still has disturbances, with short - term high - level fluctuations. The investment rating is to be cautiously bullish [10][11][12]. - **Coking Coal**: Policy still has disturbances, with short - term high - level fluctuations. The investment rating is to be cautiously bullish [13][14][15]. - **Ferroalloys (including Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon)**: Market sentiment is volatile, and a cautious bearish approach is recommended [16][17][18]. Core Views Steel Products - **Rebar**: Supply - demand shows that hot metal production decreased slightly month - on - month, but the absolute level remains high. Rebar production and apparent demand increased month - on - month, and inventory increased. Construction steel trading is at a low level, still showing off - season characteristics. Market sentiment has cooled, and the market oscillates between strong expectations and weak reality, with a short - term volatile trend [4][5]. - **Hot Rolled Coil**: Production and apparent demand decreased month - on - month, inventory increased slightly, and the fundamentals are relatively stable. Export profits have declined significantly, and future exports may be affected. Market sentiment has generally cooled, but strong macro - expectations support the downside, with a short - term volatile trend [4][5]. Iron Ore - Fundamentally, hot metal production decreased again, supply - side shipments decreased significantly, and arrivals increased. Port inventories increased, the fundamentals are moderately weak, and the anti - involution trading has ended. Under the dominance of fundamentals, ore prices are under pressure [8]. Coke - Coke spot prices have increased in five rounds. Coke enterprises' profit margins have improved marginally, but the absolute level is still limited, and production enthusiasm is average. Coke supply and demand are generally balanced, with relatively stable production and inventory. Recent news of coal production restrictions has boosted market sentiment again, leading to short - term high - level fluctuations [11]. Coking Coal - In terms of supply - demand, domestic coking coal production decreased significantly month - on - month, and inventory also decreased. Although hot metal production has decreased, the absolute level remains high, and raw material demand is relatively stable. The supply - demand margin has improved. Recent trading around anti - involution policies and news of production restrictions have boosted market expectations again, leading to short - term high - level fluctuations [14]. Ferroalloys - **Manganese Silicon**: The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The operating rate has increased in some regions due to profit restoration. A new round of demand has been concentratedly released. The indicative steel mill's inquiry price for manganese silicon tender in August is 6000 yuan/ton (acceptance), a 150 - yuan increase from July, and the procurement volume is 16100 tons, a 1500 - ton increase from the previous round. Current port ore quotes are firm, providing strong short - term support for alloy prices. Market sentiment is volatile [17]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Fundamentals are weakening. Factory inventories continue to increase significantly, and delivery inventories are at a high level for the same period, with significant near - end warehouse receipt pressure. A new round of steel tenders has been launched, and most steel mills' tender volumes and prices have increased. The indicative steel mill's inquiry price for ferrosilicon tender in August is 5700 yuan/ton, a 100 - yuan increase from last month, and the procurement volume is 2835 tons, a 135 - ton increase from the previous round [17]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Futures Prices**: Rebar 01 is at 3304 with a decline of 5; Rebar 05 is at 3330 with a decline of 7; Rebar 10 is at 3231 with a decline of 3. Hot Rolled Coil 01 is at 3440 with a decline of 15; Hot Rolled Coil 05 is at 3449 with a decline of 11; Hot Rolled Coil 10 is at 3440 with a decline of 11 [2]. - **Spot Prices**: Tangshan billet is at 3090 with no change; Rebar in Tangshan is at 3240 with a 10 - yuan decline; Rebar in Shanghai is at 3360 with a 10 - yuan decline. Hot Rolled Coil in Tianjin is at 3400 with a 10 - yuan decline; Hot Rolled Coil in Shanghai is at 3460 with a 10 - yuan decline [2]. - **Basis**: Rebar 01: Shanghai is at 56 with a 5 - yuan decline; Rebar 05: Shanghai is at 30 with a 3 - yuan decline; Rebar 10: Shanghai is at 129 with a 7 - yuan decline. Hot Rolled Coil 01: Shanghai is at 20 with a 5 - yuan increase; Hot Rolled Coil 05: Shanghai is at 11 with a 1 - yuan increase; Hot Rolled Coil 10: Shanghai is at 20 with a 1 - yuan increase [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: RB 10 - 01 is at - 73 with a 2 - point increase; RB 01 - 05 is at - 26 with a 2 - point increase; RB 05 - 10 is at - 4. HC 10 - 01 is at 0 with a 4 - point increase; HC 01 - 05 is at - 9 with a 4 - point decrease; HC 05 - 10 is at 0 [2]. - **Spot Spreads**: Rebar: Shanghai - Tangshan is at 120 with no change; Rebar: Guangzhou - Tangshan is at 160 with a 10 - yuan increase. Hot Rolled Coil - Rebar: Shanghai is at 100 with no change; Hot Rolled Coil - Rebar: Guangzhou is at 70 with no change [2]. Iron Ore - **Futures Prices**: Iron Ore 01 is at 775 with a 3 - point decline; Iron Ore 05 is at 753 with a 2 - point decline; Iron Ore 09 is at 793 with a 2 - point decline [6]. - **Spot Prices**: PB powder is at 773 with a 3 - point decline; Yangdi powder is at 670 with no change; BRBF powder is at 812 [6]. - **Spreads/Ratios**: i01 - 05 is at 22 with a 2 - point increase; i05 - 09 is at - 41 with a 1 - point decrease; i09 - 01 is at 19 with a 2 - point decrease. RB01/i01 is at 4.27 with a 0.18 - point decrease; RB05/i05 is at 4.43 with no change; RB10/i09 is at 4.07 with no change [6]. - **Basis**: PB powder: 01 is at 50 with no change; PB powder: 05 is at 72 with a 1 - point decrease; PB powder: 09 is at 31 with a 2 - point decrease [6]. - **Freight and Index**: Brazil - Qingdao freight is at 24 with a 0.2 - point increase; West Australia - Qingdao freight is at 10 with a 0.5 - point increase. The Platts price index is at 101.2 with a 0.5 - point decrease; the Platts index converted to RMB price is at 844 with a 4 - point decrease [6]. Coke - **Futures Market**: Coke 1 - month contract 01 basis is at 1744.0 - 239 (previous value: 1732.5 - 249), with a 11.5 - 10.0 increase; Coke 5 - month contract is at 1823.5 (previous value: 1814.0), with a 9.5 - point increase; Coke 9 - month contract is at 1667.5 (previous value: 1644.5), with a 23.0 - point increase [10]. - **Spot Quotes**: Lvliang quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke ex - factory price is at 1230 with no change; Rizhao Port first - grade metallurgical coke FOB price is at 1470 with no change; Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke FOB price is at 1440 (previous value: 1420), with a 20 - point increase [10]. - **Weekly Data**: The capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coke enterprises is at 74.0% (previous value: 73.7%), with a 0.3 - percentage - point increase; 247 steel mills' daily average hot metal production is at 240.3 (previous value: 240.7), with a 0.4 - point decrease; sample coking plants' daily average coke production is at 65.1 (previous value: 64.8), with a 0.3 - point increase [10]. Coking Coal - **Futures Market**: Coking Coal 1 - month contract is at 1229.5 (previous value: 1221.0), with an 8.5 - point increase; 01 basis is at 51 (previous value: 59), with an 8.5 - point decrease; Coking Coal 5 - month contract is at 1265.0 (previous value: 1268.0), with a 3.0 - point decrease; 05 basis is at 15 (previous value: 12), with a 3.0 - point increase; Coking Coal 9 - month contract is at 1087.0 (previous value: 1074.0), with a 13.0 - point increase [13]. - **Spot Quotes**: Lvliang main coking coal (A<10.5, S<1%, G>75) is at 1480 with no change; Gujiao main coking coal (A<11, S<1.5%, G<65) is at 1300 with no change; Mongolian 5 clean coal self - pick - up price at Wubulangkou Jinquan Industrial Park is at 1150 with no change; Jingtang Port Australian main coking coal (A<9, S<0.4%, G>87) is at 1540 (previous value: 1520), with a 20 - point increase [13]. - **Weekly Data**: The operating rate of sample coal washing plants is at 61.5% (previous value: 62.3%), with a 0.8 - percentage - point decrease; sample coal washing plants' daily average clean coal production is at 52.1 with no change; sample coking plants' daily average coke production is at 52.0 (previous value: 51.8), with a 0.2 - point increase; 247 steel mills' daily average coke production is at 46.8 (previous value: 47.0), with a 0.2 - point decrease [13]. Ferroalloys - **Futures Prices**: Manganese Silicon 01 is at 6160 with a 34 - point decline; Manganese Silicon 05 is at 6202 with a 26 - point decline; Manganese Silicon 09 is at 6064 with a 32 - point decline. Ferrosilicon 01 is at 6012 with a 56 - point decline; Ferrosilicon 05 is at 6090 with a 44 - point decline; Ferrosilicon 09 is at 2834 with a 74 - point decline [16]. - **Spot Prices**: Silico - manganese 6517: Inner Mongolia is at 5820 with a 30 - point decline; Silico - manganese 6517: Ningxia is at 5800 with no change; Silico - manganese 6517: Guizhou is at 5850 with no change. Ferrosilicon 72: Inner Mongolia is at 5600 with no change; Ferrosilicon 72: Ningxia is at 5600 with no change; Ferrosilicon 72: Qinghai is at 5600 with a 50 - yuan increase [16]. - **Basis**: Manganese Silicon 01: Inner Mongolia is at - 40; Manganese Silicon 05: Inner Mongolia is at - 82 with a 4 - point decrease; Manganese Silicon 09: Inner Mongolia is at 56 with a 2 - point increase. Ferrosilicon 01: Ningxia is at - 62 with a 56 - point increase; Ferrosilicon 05: Ningxia is at - 140 with a 44 - point increase; Ferrosilicon 09: Ningxia is at 116 with a 74 - point increase [16]. - **Spread Analysis**: SM 09 - 01 is at - 96 with a 2 - point increase; SM 01 - 05 is at - 42 with an 8 - point decrease; SM 05 - 09 is at 138 with a 6 - point increase. SF 09 - 01 is at - 178 with an 18 - point decrease; SF 01 - 05 is at - 78 with a 12 - point decrease; SF 05 - 09 is at 256 with a 30 - point increase [16]. - **Weekly Data**: The operating rate of manganese silicon enterprises is at 43.43% (previous value: 42.18%), with a 1.25 - percentage - point increase; the operating rate of ferrosilicon enterprises is at 34.32% (previous value: 33.76%), with a 0.56 - percentage - point increase. The production of 187 manganese silicon enterprises is at 195825 tons (previous value: 190820 tons), with a 5005 - ton increase; the inventory of 63 manganese silicon enterprises is at 161500 tons (previous value: 164000 tons), with a 2500 - ton decrease. The production of 136 ferrosilicon enterprises is at 109100 tons (previous value: 104400 tons), with a 4700 - ton increase; the inventory of 60 ferrosilicon enterprises is at 71770 tons (previous value: 65590 tons), with a 6180 - ton increase [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: The PTA futures fluctuated and declined yesterday, with the spot market negotiation atmosphere being average and the spot basis stabilizing. The recent macro - atmosphere has cooled down, commodities have corrected, the cost - side support is insufficient, and the downstream terminal demand is weak in the off - season. Although there have been many changes in PTA devices recently, the spot market liquidity is relatively abundant, and there is a lack of upward driving force for PTA. However, as the basis weakens, the buying sentiment of traders has slightly recovered, and the downward space is limited. Also, the PTA processing margin was once compressed below 200 this week, and attention should be paid to whether there are new variables in PTA devices under continuous low processing fees [5]. - MEG: On Thursday, the price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated downward, and the basis weakened. It is expected that the visible inventory of ethylene glycol may show a phased increase this week. In August, the fundamentals of ethylene glycol are mainly in a loose balance. The restart of Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase II 1 is moderately postponed to around the middle of the month, and the increase in domestic output is delayed. It is expected that ethylene glycol will be mainly adjusted in a wide range in the short term. Currently, the port inventory is low, and attention should be paid to the cost - side and device changes [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.前日回顾 No information provided in the content. 3.2.每日提示 - **PTA** - **Fundamentals**: The PTA futures fluctuated and declined yesterday, with the spot market negotiation atmosphere being average and the spot basis stabilizing. The mainstream spot basis today is 09 - 20 [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4685, and the 09 - contract basis is - 3, with the futures price at a discount, which is neutral [6]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory is 3.7 days, a decrease of 0.12 days compared to the previous period, which is bullish [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [6]. - **Main positions**: The net position is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [5]. - **Expectation**: Lack of upward driving force, but limited downward space. Pay attention to whether there are new variables in PTA devices under continuous low processing fees [5]. - **MEG** - **Fundamentals**: On Thursday, the price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated downward, and the basis weakened. The night - session opened higher and adjusted, and the negotiation in the market was light. The market was weak in the morning, and the buying was average. The market stabilized in the afternoon, and the mainstream spot negotiation was around a premium of 67 - 75 yuan/ton over the 09 - contract. In US dollars, the center of the external market of ethylene glycol fluctuated weakly, and the recent shipments were negotiated around 522 - 527 US dollars/ton, with the negotiation being stalemate [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4475, and the 09 - contract basis is 79, with the futures price at a discount, which is neutral [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in the East China region is 47.22 tons, a decrease of 4.48 tons compared to the previous period, which is bearish [7]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [7]. - **Main positions**: The main net position is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: The visible inventory may increase in the short term. It is expected to be adjusted in a wide range, and attention should be paid to the cost - side and device changes [7]. 3.3.今日关注 No information provided in the content. 3.4.基本面数据 - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Shows the supply - demand data of PTA from January 2024 to December 2025, including PTA capacity, output, import, total supply, polyester production, polyester demand for PTA, PTA export, total demand, and inventory, etc. [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Presents the supply - demand data of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025, including the operating rate, output, import, total supply, polyester production, polyester demand for ethylene glycol, total demand, and port inventory, etc. [11]. - **Price - Related Data**: There are historical price data of PET bottle chips, production profit data, capacity utilization rate data, inventory data, as well as PTA and MEG's inter - month spread, basis, spot spread data, and upstream and downstream operating rate data and profit data of the polyester industry [13][16][20].

期货研究 烧碱：估值低位，旺季合约偏多对待 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 烧碱基本面数据 09合约期货价格 山东最便宜可交割 现货32碱价格 山东现货32碱折盘面 基差 2413 800 2500 87 2025 年 8 月 8 日 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 【趋势强度】 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 商 品 研 究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 液碱碱出货压力较大，液碱累库，伴随省内主力下游企业采购液碱价格下调，省内东部地区 32 碱出货 情况一般，价格下行。 【市场状况分析】 近期烧碱下跌主要因为企业开工偏高，而烧碱又处于需求淡季，同时 50 碱的出口处于价格博弈阶段， 订单较少，导致 50 碱价格承压。50 碱-32 碱价差低于蒸发成本，进一步加大华东地区 32 碱现货压力。此 外，08 合约仓单对市场形成冲击，低价仓单回流现货市场，加剧了市场负反馈。 从后期行情看，烧碱 09 合约盘面估值抛开交割因素，已处于这轮预计降价的合理估值。成本端，液氯 偏弱影响，烧碱成本支撑强。而烧碱旺季需 ...