【华通白银网5月6日讯】•黄金上涨2%，美元指数下跌，尽管ISM服务业PMI显示美国经济有弹性。 •特朗普宣布对外国电影征收100%关税，称鲍威尔不会被提前撤职，但敦促降息。 •市场为美联储周三决定做好准备；市场关注鲍威尔新闻发布会政策信号。 周一，由于美元受到重创，黄金价格涨幅逾2%，上涨70多美元，尽管来自美国的积极经济数据表明经济仍然稳固。黄金从日低点3,237美 元反弹后，报3,321美元。 美国供应管理协会（ISM）的一份报告称，服务提供商重申了美国经济的稳健，随后市场情绪有所改善。数据暗示，由于特朗普的关税 政策，价格正在上涨 上周末，特朗普宣布对外国电影征收100%的关税，并表示美联储应该降低利率。他称，在2026年5月任期结束前，他不会撤换美联储主 席鲍威尔。 特朗普称，美国正在与包括中国在内的许多国家会晤，他的主要任务是与中国达成协议。 与此同时，交易员正在为美联储周三的货币政策会议做准备。市场已经完全消化了美联储将维持利率不变的预期，尽管他们将关注美联 储主席鲍威尔的新闻发布会。决策者在6月份的会议之前不会更新他们的预测，这可能会提供一些有关货币政策的暗示。 每日市场动向：黄金价格未受美国 ...

Group 1: Energy and Petrochemicals - Oil prices declined weakly during the domestic holiday. Brent 07 contract dropped 3.8% compared to the closing on April 30. OPEC+ plans to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June and may continue in July. The short - term oil market is expected to be volatile and weak [2]. - Precious metals fluctuated widely during the May Day holiday. The Fed is likely to keep interest rates unchanged in May. The long - term upward trend of gold prices is supported, but it's advisable to wait for a pullback before layout [3]. - Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil are expected to follow the decline of international oil prices. The 380cst high - sulfur fuel oil spot is at a discount, and the ultra - low - sulfur fuel oil spot shows a strong spread [21]. - Asphalt is expected to follow the decline of international oil prices. However, with improved supply - demand, the BU crack spread is expected to be volatile and strong [22]. - LPG has support in the overseas market due to chemical demand, but the domestic market is under pressure as PDH plants enter maintenance. The price is expected to be volatile [23]. Group 2: Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices fluctuated during the holiday. LME copper inventories dropped to 197,700 tons, and COMEX copper inventories increased to 146,500 short tons. Hold short positions above 78,000 for the 2507 contract [4]. - Aluminum prices may face resistance in the 20,000 - 20,300 yuan range due to uncertain demand in the off - season [5]. - Alumina production has decreased, but capacity may resume. The price is expected to be volatile, and it's advisable to short on rallies [6]. - Zinc prices are weak. With expected imports and weak downstream consumption in the off - season, it's advisable to short on rallies [7]. - Lead prices are weak due to high inventories. The spot import window may open after the holiday, and the price is expected to range between 16,300 - 17,000 yuan/ton [8]. - Nickel prices are at the end of a rebound. Observe for new short - building opportunities [9]. - Tin prices declined due to weak Korean manufacturing and concerns about demand. Hold short positions against 265,000 [10]. - Lithium carbonate prices are in a downward channel. Hold short positions as supply is elastic and inventories are increasing [11]. - Industrial silicon prices are under pressure. Supply - demand structure is poor with slow production resumption and weak demand in the photovoltaic and organic silicon industries [12]. - Polysilicon prices are expected to follow the downward trend of the photovoltaic industry. Supply and demand are in a tight balance, but inventories are rising slightly [13]. Group 3: Ferrous Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices are volatile. Rebar demand improved, and inventories decreased. Hot - rolled coil supply - demand stabilized, and inventories continued to decline. Pay attention to demand in the peak season and policy implementation [14]. - Iron ore prices are expected to be volatile. Supply is increasing seasonally, and domestic port inventories are rising. Pay attention to the pressure when iron - water production peaks [15]. - Coke's second price increase was rejected. Inventories remain high, and pay attention to steel exports [16]. - Coking coal prices are expected to be weakly volatile. Production is gradually recovering, but inventories are high, and downstream procurement is for rigid demand [17]. - Silicomanganese prices are under pressure. Inventories are increasing, and it's advisable to short on rallies [18]. - Ferrosilicon prices are weak. Supply is decreasing, but inventories are rising. Short on rallies [19]. Group 4: Chemicals - Urea prices may decline after the holiday. Supply is sufficient, and pay attention to export dynamics [24]. - Methanol prices are expected to be weak. Supply is increasing, and demand is entering the off - season [25]. - Styrene prices face increasing supply - demand contradictions. Costs are weakening, and production is expected to increase while demand is weak [26]. - Polypropylene and plastic prices are volatile and weak. Demand is weak, and inventories increased during the holiday, but supply pressure may ease with more maintenance [27]. - PVC and caustic soda prices: PVC may be low - level volatile due to weak domestic demand. Caustic soda's profitability improved, but downstream demand is weak [28]. - PX and PTA prices are driven by oil prices. Supply is contracting, but polyester industry's centralized production cuts are a potential risk [28]. - Ethylene glycol prices are weak. Supply is temporarily contracting, but short - term imports are high, and the price is affected by oil prices [29]. - Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices are mainly driven by raw materials. Pay attention to trade frictions and terminal orders after the holiday [30]. Group 5: Agricultural Products - Soybean and soybean meal prices are volatile. The US soybean planting season is important. The domestic supply pattern will shift from tight to loose. Soybean meal futures may be strong in the short - term [34]. - Soybean oil and palm oil prices are expected to be volatile. Palm oil is in the production - increasing cycle, and the domestic soybean supply pattern will change [35]. - Rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil: The supply of rapeseed meal may ease in the long - term. Pay attention to Sino - US - Canada trade policies [36]. - Corn prices are volatile. Port inventory pressure decreased, and downstream starch production increased. Pay attention to market divergence [38]. - Hog prices are stable during the holiday. Future supply is expected to increase, and pay attention to the decline in spot prices [39]. - Egg prices are expected to be weak. Supply is sufficient, and demand will be weak in the off - season and during the rainy season [40]. - Cotton prices: US cotton rebounded, and pay attention to Sino - US trade negotiations. Domestic demand is in the off - season, and external demand is under pressure [41]. - Sugar prices are volatile. Brazil's new - season supply is expected to be sufficient, and pay attention to weather in Guangxi [42]. - Apple prices are volatile. Spot sales are good, and inventory is low. Pay attention to new - season production [43]. Group 6: Others - Container shipping index (European line) is expected to be volatile and weak. The near - month contract is under pressure, and the far - month contract is affected by tariff expectations and geopolitical risks [20]. - Wood prices are weak. Supply is decreasing, and demand is entering the off - season. The price is expected to be weak, and it's advisable to wait and see [44]. - Pulp prices are weak. Inventory is high, and downstream procurement is cautious. The fundamental situation remains weak [45]. - Stock index futures may recover in the short - term following the improvement of global risk appetite. The market style may shift to technology - growth [46]. - Treasury bond futures are expected to be in a range - bound pattern. Manufacturing expansion slowed, and risk appetite recovered [47].

金十数据5月5日讯，本周 ，保持独立的美联储肯定会维持利率不变。毫无疑问，经济正在走软，但还没有到 迫使政策制定者做出过于强烈反应的地步。尤其是在物价压力（尤其是个人消费支出）仍在持续的情况下。 在这种背景下，关税的潜在影响肯定会让美联储保持警惕。从目前的情况来看，市场并未将本周降息的预期 纳入其中。鲍威尔周末重申无意解除鲍威尔，但请注意，他在周末也抽时间发文称："没有通胀，美联储应该 降低利率！！"因此，如果美联储本周不这么做，我们将看到特朗普对鲍威尔的目光会有多犀利。我不排除特 朗普会就这一决定再次猛烈抨击鲍威尔，届时只会让我们再次回到旋转木马上。（财经网站Forexlive） 本周美联储不降息时，准备迎接特朗普的"狂轰滥炸" ...

Core Viewpoint - A significant options trader has placed an $18 million bet that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates this year, contrasting with broader market expectations for rate cuts in July and potentially two more times later in the year [1] Group 1: Options Market Activity - A major position has accumulated in options contracts betting that the Federal Reserve will maintain or raise rates before 2025, with approximately 180,000 contracts now held, representing about 75% of the total open interest [1] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) reported a surge in open contracts this week, indicating increased risk exposure linked to the secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) [1] - Recent trading activity has focused on SOFR options with a strike price of 95.6875, particularly due to new trades in put options aimed at maintaining current interest rates over the next year [7] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Positioning - Investor sentiment is mixed as many on Wall Street are betting that tariffs imposed by Trump could slow the economy, prompting the Fed to lower rates, while recent trades have diminished this expectation [4] - A Morgan Stanley client survey indicated a slight increase in both long and short positions in the Treasury market following a sell-off triggered by tariff announcements [4] - CFTC data shows asset managers have increased net long positions in 10-year Treasury futures by approximately 370,000 contracts, while hedge funds have also raised their net long positions by about 170,000 contracts [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The actual impact of OPEC+ production increase and the updated over - production compensation plan remains to be seen. The probability of OPEC+ unitedly cutting production to support prices at the current oil price level is lower than before. The demand side may focus on the market's expectation of the US debt scale, and a halt in US debt growth may affect crude oil demand. Geopolitical factors are trending towards缓和 but still require sensitivity to emergencies. In a macro - pressured situation, the probability of new geopolitical information is higher. The short - term rebound of oil prices is facing resistance, and the medium - term weak pattern is difficult to change. It is recommended to sell high in the medium term and try to place short positions or bearish positions near the pressure level in the short term, and consider placing out - of - the - money put options due to the approaching holiday in China [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On April 25, the Sc crude oil futures price was 496.10 yuan/barrel, up 0.55% from the previous day and 1.10% from the previous week; WTI was 63.17 dollars/barrel, up 0.64% from the previous day; Brent was 66.91 dollars/barrel, up 0.62% from the previous day [2] - **Price Spreads**: The Sc - WTI spread was 5.67 dollars/barrel, up 0.09% from the previous day; the Sc - Brent spread was 1.93 dollars/barrel, down 0.26% from the previous day; the Brent - WTI spread was 3.74 dollars/barrel, up 93.32% from the previous day [2] - **Spot Prices**: OPEC's basket of crude oil was 68.83 dollars/barrel, unchanged from the previous day and down 1.18% from the previous week; Brent DTD was 67.51 dollars/barrel, unchanged from the previous day and down 1.13% from the previous week; Oman was 67.45 dollars/barrel, unchanged from the previous day and down 1.45% from the previous week; Dubai was 67.45 dollars/barrel, unchanged from the previous day and down 1.45% from the previous week; ESPO was 63.99 dollars/barrel, unchanged from the previous day and up 2.55% from the previous week [2] - **Product Spot Prices**: Diesel in East China was 6680.09 yuan/ton, down 0.02% from the previous day and down 0.64% from the previous week; gasoline in East China was 7888.91 yuan/ton, down 0.00% from the previous day and down 0.59% from the previous week [2] 3.2 Inventory and Position Data - **Inventory**: The US strategic petroleum reserve was 397.48 million barrels, up 0.12% from the previous week; commercial crude oil was 443.10 million barrels, up 0.06% from the previous week; Cushing crude oil was 25.02 million barrels, down 0.34% from the previous week; gasoline was 229.54 million barrels, down 1.91% from the previous week; distillates were 106.88 million barrels, down 2.15% from the previous week [2] - **Position**: The non - commercial net position of CFTC was 17.10 million contracts, up 16.80% from the previous week; the commercial net position was - 17.39 million contracts, down 13.12% from the previous week; the non - report net position was 0.29 million contracts, down 60.11% from the previous week [2] 3.3 Geopolitical and Policy News - US Secretary of State Rubio said the US would not expand sanctions on Russia to avoid interfering with the peace process in the Ukraine conflict, but Trump proposed possible financial or secondary sanctions on Putin. Russia and Ukraine are closer to a peace agreement. The Iran's Abbas Port explosion injured 195 people, and the explosion did not affect energy facilities. The US - Iran talks will continue next week, and a high - level meeting is tentatively scheduled for May 3. Trump said he would not cancel tariffs on China unless China made substantial concessions, while China emphasized that the US should correct its mistakes and cancel all unilateral tariffs [3][5] 3.4 Market and Macro News - The probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate in May is 90.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in June is 58.6%. European Central Bank policymakers are more confident about a rate cut in June due to continuous inflation decline. The impact of US tariff policies will start to show nationwide at the end of next month, and it will have a greater impact on low - income Americans. Crude oil futures have rebounded strongly from the trough earlier this month, but in euro terms, Brent oil futures have fallen 11% this year, and European buyers' actual oil purchase cost has dropped more significantly, which may boost oil demand marginally [6][7]

Group 1 - Gold futures experienced a significant drop today, with the latest Shanghai gold futures reported at 787.28 CNY per gram, reflecting a decline of 4.18% [1] - The opening price for today was 820.58 CNY per gram, with a maximum price reaching 828.74 CNY per gram and a minimum of 785.02 CNY per gram [1][4] - Short-term resistance levels for gold are identified between 840-845 CNY, while support levels are noted between 740-745 CNY [4] Group 2 - Recent interest rate futures indicate that traders have lowered the expectation for interest rate cuts this year from four times to three, each by 25 basis points [3] - The current federal funds rate remains in the range of 4.25%-4.50%, with the Federal Reserve maintaining its stance despite external pressures [3] - The probability of a rate cut in May is now below 5%, and the likelihood for June has decreased from 78% to 67% following comments from former President Trump [3]

Inflation Data - The core CPI inflation rate in the U.S. fell to 0.06% in March, down 0.17 percentage points from February, significantly below the market expectation of 0.3%[1] - Overall CPI growth turned negative at -0.05% in March, down from 0.22% in February, also below the market expectation of 0.1%[1] - Year-on-year, the overall CPI and core CPI decreased by 0.4 and 0.3 percentage points to 2.4% and 2.8%, respectively[1] Employment Data - Non-farm payrolls increased by 228,000 in March, exceeding market expectations of 140,000 and significantly up from 117,000 in February[2] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.15% in March, compared to 4.14% in February[2] Tariff Impact - The weighted average tariff rate in the U.S. increased from 20.5% to 25.9% since Trump's administration, potentially raising inflation by 1.1 to 2.3 percentage points[3] - If the "reciprocal tariff" policy is fully implemented, the inflation impact could rise to 1.4 to 2.7 percentage points[3] Interest Rate Outlook - The forecast remains for 2-3 rate cuts of 25 basis points each throughout the year, although uncertainty due to tariff policies has increased[4] - The Federal Reserve may need to observe the situation before making decisions, as tariffs could push inflation higher[5] Economic Risks - Risks include slow rate cuts leading to recession and the potential for stagflation due to aggressive tariff policies[6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating is "sideways" [1] Core Viewpoints - In the short term, after the sharp decline of the index on Monday, there are still "aftershocks" in the sentiment, combined with continuous international fluctuations and strengthening technical pressure. The short - term trend is expected to turn to weak sideways movement, and there is a possibility of a second bottom - testing. It is recommended that investors continue to be defensive this week. In the medium term, the underlying logic of the starting point of the A - share bull market has not changed. After the short - term pessimistic expectations reach the extreme, the impact of external factors such as subsequent tariffs tends to be the exhaustion of negative factors. Referring to the market from H2 2019 to H1 2020, wait for the opportunity of a second upward attack after the sharp decline [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Stock Market Information - The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in May is 73.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 26.6%. By June, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 13.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 64.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 21.5% [4] - The US CPI in March increased by 2.4% year - on - year, significantly down from the 2.8% level of the previous month, hitting a six - month low and lower than the market forecast of 2.6%. The CPI in March unexpectedly decreased by 0.1% month - on - month, far lower than the market forecast (an increase of 0.1%), with the previous value being an increase of 0.2% [4] Stock Index Disk Review - **Disk Tracking**: In the previous trading day, the A - shares continued to rebound. The four major indexes opened higher and then fluctuated. The Shanghai Composite 50 Index closed up 0.60%, the CSI 300 Index closed up 1.31%, the CSI 500 Index closed up 1.92%, and the CSI 1000 Index closed up 2.34%. In terms of sectors, motorcycles (+6.22%) and precious metals (+5.30%) led the gains yesterday, while telecommunications (-1.12%) and soft drinks (-0.96%) lagged. More than 4,900 stocks rose, and the number of daily limit stocks was 178, with the profit - making effect warming up [4] - **Technical Tracking**: Affected by the spill - over of external market risks, the indexes gapped down collectively this week. The technical indicators quickly turned bearish, the short - term rebound strength was weak, and the pressure at the daily and weekly levels strengthened [4] - **Fund Flow**: The trading volume of A - shares increased slightly, rising to the level of 1.6 - 1.7 trillion this week. The willingness of funds to bottom - fish was acceptable, but it was hard to say that the market had stabilized. It is expected that the divergence will continue today [4] Core Logic Summary - **Short - term Outlook**: Due to post - decline sentiment "aftershocks", international fluctuations, and strengthening technical pressure, the short - term trend is expected to be weakly sideways, with a possible second bottom - testing. Investors are advised to be defensive this week [3] - **Medium - term Outlook**: The underlying logic of the A - share bull market remains unchanged. After short - term pessimism, external factors may turn from negative to positive. Refer to the 2019H2 - 2020H1 market and wait for the second upward attack opportunity after the sharp decline [3] - **Key Factors to Watch**: Whether the Fed will make a compromise rate cut after the uncertainty of the US economic outlook; whether the intensity of domestic policies will increase after the earnings window at the end of April [3] Operation Suggestions - **Futures Operations**: The discounts of stock index futures contracts generally widened, especially for IF and IH. There is room for correction. It is recommended to continue to hold the long - IF and short - IM portfolio; for single - side operations, stay on the sidelines or close positions on the same day according to the trend [3] - **Options Operations**: The implied volatility of stock index options continued to decline. The IV of the at - the - money contracts of the CSI 300 Index in the current month reached the 20 - 21% level. The short - term volatility is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with few certain operation opportunities. You can participate in short - term put option buying or hold the current - month written options until maturity, but risk control should be set in advance [3]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs initially predicted a 65% chance of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months but retracted this forecast shortly after [1] - Goldman Sachs has frequently revised its recession expectations, raising the probability from 20% to 35% just a week prior, and then to 45% [2] - Notable economist Nouriel Roubini believes the U.S. will avoid recession, suggesting that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates for the remainder of the year after tariff-related disputes ease [2] Group 2 - Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Larry Summers warns that the economy is still in danger, criticizing the current administration's strategies and highlighting potential losses for middle-class families due to tariffs [2] - Market reactions have been volatile, with significant stock market gains following Trump's comments on tariffs, including a more than 9% rise in the Nasdaq and over 10% increases in stocks like Apple and Nvidia [1] - The Federal Reserve is under pressure to respond to economic impacts from new tariffs, with traders speculating on multiple rate cuts in the near future [2]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley predicts that President Trump's tariff policy will initially raise inflation before slowing economic growth, leading the Federal Reserve to maintain a wait-and-see approach throughout 2025 [1][2] - The forecast indicates that the U.S. GDP growth will nearly stagnate, with core inflation expected to rise significantly above the Fed's 2% target by the end of the year [1][2] - The Fed's key overnight lending rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.25% to 4.5%, with core PCE inflation projected to increase from 2.8% in February to 3.9% by year-end [1] Group 2 - Actual GDP growth is anticipated to slow to 0.8% in 2025 and 0.7% in 2026, with the Fed likely prioritizing inflation control over stimulating economic growth [2] - No interest rate cuts are expected until March 2026, with a potential reduction of the federal funds rate to a range of 2.5% to 2.75% following seven 25 basis point cuts [2] - A recession could alter this outlook, potentially leading to earlier and more significant rate cuts [2] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve is not expected to intervene to support the stock market amid recent sell-offs, with the S&P 500 index potentially needing to drop to 4600 points to find a bottom [3] - The government is not anticipated to provide stimulus measures to counteract the impact of tariffs, as fiscal policy is seen as part of the problem [3] - The weakening of the U.S. "exceptionalism" aura may lead to capital outflows from the U.S., affecting financial markets [3]