每周一景： 云南玉龙雪山 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 【 宏观】出口反弹，内需分化 上周高频数据显示，消费方面冷热不均，其中汽车销售仍较强。 投资方面，基建投资加速发力，地产销售 边际改善但土地市场低迷。进出口加速反弹，海外需求韧性犹存，关税缓和期港口数据和出口运价快速回 升，或因前期积压库存集中出货和抢出口。生产呈现行业分化的趋势，光伏生产指数回升，钢铁、石化等 部分行业开工率回落。库存方面，煤炭库存高位回落，钢材加速去库。物价表现一般， CPI 和 PPI 相关 高频指标大多下行。流动性方面，美元指数大幅回落，人民币持续升值。 风险提示： 贸易局势不确定性 。 >>以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已经发布的研究报告 ： 出口反弹，内需分化 ，具体分析内容（包括风险提示等） 请详见完 整版报告。 【 海外策略】贸易摩擦缓和期资产价格如何走 2018-19 年中美贸易摩擦共历时近两年，期间经历四次缓和窗口期。 具体包括： 2018 年 5 月华盛顿 会谈后双方发布联合声明、 2018 年 12 月阿根廷 G20 峰会双方元首会晤、 2019 年 6 月大阪 G20 峰 会后的谈判重启、 2019 年 10 月华盛顿 ...

报告导读： ①回顾2018-19年，中美贸易摩擦具有复杂性和长期性，资产价格表现也因 此受到很大影响。②资产价格变化三点规律：一是其中长期走势仍取决于基本面，例如 中国股市走势与国内基本面高度相关。③二是市场对于贸易领域负面信号的反应更加敏 感，对于缓和信号相对平淡。④三是不同资产敏感度不同，股、汇更敏感，债市则影响 较小，黄金配置价值随贸易摩擦持续而上升。 2018-19 年中美贸易摩擦共历时近两年，期间经历四次缓和窗口期。 具体包括： 2018 年 5 月华盛顿 会谈后双方发布联合声明、 2018 年 12 月阿根廷 G20 峰会双方元首会晤、 2019 年 6 月大阪 G20 峰 会后的谈判重启、 2019 年 10 月华盛顿会谈取得实质性进展。整体来看四轮缓和阶段，缓和期的持续时 间长短不一，此外前三次谈判后均因美国单方面撕毁协议等因素而中断缓和期，可见贸易摩擦期间的谈判 和缓和仍具有较大不确定性。 具体来看： 2018 年 5 月：中美发布经贸磋商联合声明，但缓和期持续仅 10 天。 缓和期内美股走势偏 震荡，此后中美股市走势出现分化：在关税落地叠加金融去杠杆的双重压力下， AH 股持续下跌，而美股 ...

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market continues to decline, with the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 all experiencing a cumulative drop of over 2% for the week [3] - Major tech stocks, including Apple, saw significant losses, with Apple dropping over 3% in a single day and nearly 7.6% for the week, marking its largest weekly decline of the year [3] - Trump's announcement of a potential 25% tariff on phones not produced in the U.S. directly impacts Apple, raising concerns about supply chain costs [3] Commodity and Safe-Haven Assets - Traditional industrial metals and gold have surged, with U.S. Steel rising 21% in a single day due to news of a partnership with Japan's Nippon Steel [3] - Gold prices increased significantly, with spot gold rising 4.83% and futures up 5.4% for the week, driven by heightened market risk aversion [3] - The Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index soared by 7.7%, while copper prices also rose nearly 4% [3] Chinese Concept Stocks - The Golden Dragon Index for Chinese stocks saw a slight increase of 0.05%, but individual stock performance varied widely [4] - Bilibili rose by 3%, while Miniso plummeted by 17%, and companies like NIO and Xpeng also faced declines, likely due to weak consumer data [4] Bond Market Dynamics - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield dropped from 4.6% to 4.44% following Trump's comments but rebounded by the end of the week, indicating market uncertainty regarding trade tensions [5] - The 30-year Treasury yield increased by over 9 basis points for the week, suggesting a divergence in institutional views on inflation and economic outlook [5] Currency and Oil Market - The offshore RMB reached a high of 7.17, the strongest since November, attributed to a weaker dollar [5] - Oil prices, including WTI and Brent, ended a streak of gains, falling over 1% due to OPEC+ plans to potentially increase production by 410,000 barrels per day in July [5] Investment Strategy Insights - The current market environment is characterized by volatility due to high valuations in tech stocks and trade tensions, suggesting a need for careful investment strategies [5] - There is a growing interest in traditional manufacturing and safe-haven assets, indicating potential long-term investment opportunities [5]

3、 苹果中国推出"Trade In换购计划"， 即日起至6月18日，用iPhone 12或后续机型换购新iPhone，预计可享550元到5700元的折抵优惠。此外，Apple Watch、iPad、Mac以及Android设备也都可以在换购时享受折抵优惠。 4、 哈佛大学赢得一项临时法院禁令，美国法官暂时叫停特朗普政府禁止哈佛大学招收国际学生。 该裁决是在哈佛大学于波士顿联邦法院提起诉讼数小时 后作出的。 1、国家主席习近平应约同德国总理默茨通电话。习近平指出，事实充分证明， 中德、中欧关系的正确定位是伙伴。 今年是中国同欧盟建交50周年，双方 要共同总结中欧关系发展成功经验， 发出维护多边主义和自由贸易、深化开放互利合作的积极信号。 2、国务院总理李强主持召开国务院常务会议， 审议通过《制造业绿色低碳发展行动方案（2025-2027年）》，研究进一步健全横向生态保护补偿机制有 关举措， 讨论《中华人民共和国食品安全法（修正草案）》。 1、 央行、外汇局拟完善境内企业境外直接上市资金管理，明确境外上市募集资金、减持或转让股份所得资金原则上应汇回境内 ，股东因增持汇出资金如 有剩余或交易未达成时，应及时汇回境 ...

地产销售动能回落，对美出口需求改善。 上周（ 05.12-05.18 ）中观景气表现分化，值得关注： 1 ） 中美贸易摩擦出现实质性缓和，中国对美出口订单激增，但港口吞吐量环比仅小幅回升，二十大港口离港 船舶载重吨数环比小幅下滑，显示转口订单转向直接对美出口，抢出口对外需的支撑效应仍待观察； 2 ） 国内地产销售依旧偏弱，二手房销售韧性更强，但价格仍待改善。建筑施工需求依旧偏弱，天气转好钢 材、水泥需求小幅回升，但仍处于历史同期低位； 3 ）耐用消费品中汽车消费维持韧性；电影票房收入承 压，同环比均大幅下滑；快递揽收 / 投递量同比实现较快增长，线上零售仍较为活跃。 报告导读： 地产销售动能回落，乘用车销售景气延续；建筑施工需求仍待改善，外需担 忧边际缓和，中国对美出口订单增长，港口货物吞吐量与运价环比回升。 下游消费：地产销售持续偏弱，乘用车景气边际提升。 30 大中城市商品房成交面积同比 -10.7% ，其中 一线 / 二线 / 三线城市商品房成交面积同比 +12.4%/-30.2%/+7.0% 。 10 大重点城市二手房成交面 积同比 +2.6% 。新房销售降幅扩大，二手房增速小幅回升。 05.06-0 ...

以下文章来源于中欧EMBA ，作者黄奇帆 中欧EMBA . 管理干货、大咖分享、活动资讯、申请服务，进入中欧EMBA的第一站。 近日，原重庆市市长黄奇帆解读当下中国经济形势，分享中国制造的破壁之路与新质生产力的突围赛 道。以下是黄奇帆先生演讲内容的整理。 01 「中国制造2025」带来的五大变化 中国式现代化产业体系的基础是制造业。「中国制造2025」设定的奋斗目标，就是要突破技术封锁 实现创新发展，提升中国制造全产业链的竞争力， 从「中国制造大而不强到大而较强」，实现质的 飞跃。 经过10年，中国在五个方面取得了历史性进步和标志性提升： 第一，2024年中国制造的总量规模的比重跃升。 2010中国制造占全球制造业的比重是20%， 2024年达到34%。中国制造业增加值是美国的2倍，日本、德国的4倍。 第二，中国制造的产业链完整度是全球独一无二的。 联合国确认的产业链有41个大类、207个中 类、666个小类，中国是全球唯一产业链类别全覆盖的国家，其中40%的类别生产总量是全球第 一。 第三，中国制造业的进步为出口产品带来了根本性、结构性、趋势性的变化。 2010年中国出口额 16000多亿美元，其中70%是 ...

Core Viewpoint - The tire industry in China is experiencing moderate growth in 2024, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 5.7% but a profit decline of 8.5%, indicating a disparity in economic performance among companies [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - The overall performance of the tire industry is characterized by a significant divergence, with leading companies achieving substantial profit growth while many others face declining profits [4] - Major companies like Linglong Tire, Sailun Tire, and Senqilin have reported impressive profit increases of 26.01%, 31.42%, and 59.74% respectively, while Triangle Tire experienced a profit drop of 21.03% due to rising raw material costs and inventory issues [2][4] - The prices of natural and synthetic rubber have risen significantly, impacting the industry's fundamentals, with natural rubber prices reaching a seven-year high earlier in the year [2] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The automotive sector's growth has slowed, affecting tire demand, with a 2.7% increase in steel radial tire production in the first half of 2024, followed by a 3.2% decline in the second half [3] - The production of semi-steel tires has remained positive, with a 22% increase in the first half and a 15% increase in the second half of the year [3] Group 3: Export and International Market - China's tire exports have shown growth, with a 4.9% increase in weight, a 10.5% increase in quantity, and a 5.5% increase in export value in 2024 [5] - Chinese tires are increasingly replacing foreign brands in the European and American markets due to competitive pricing, with significant demand growth in Asia, Africa, and Latin America [5] Group 4: Future Outlook and Challenges - The tire industry is expected to enter a phase of capacity reduction due to ongoing cost pressures and trade frictions, with raw material prices likely to fluctuate but not significantly increase [7] - The demand for tires is anticipated to be bolstered by the growth of the electric vehicle market, with production and sales of new energy vehicles expected to rise by 34.4% and 35.5% respectively in 2024 [7] - Trade tensions, particularly with the U.S. and Mexico, pose significant risks to the industry, prompting companies to enhance their overseas operations to mitigate these challenges [8]

新华财经北京5月22日电（王晓伟）欧洲央行4月利率决议会议纪要显示，欧洲央行决策者上月表示，欧 元区通胀几乎被遏制，即便贸易途径可能进一步引发通胀，但贸易紧张局势可能在短期内打压物价。欧 洲央行在一年内第七次降息，经济增长将受到美国关税的严重打击，这加大了未来几个月进一步放宽政 策的押注。 欧洲央行在会议纪要中显示，尽管自4月会议以来，贸易紧张局势在很大程度上有所缓解，但普遍存在 的不确定性继续打压市场情绪，使市场坚定地押注欧洲央行将于6月再次降息。不过，一些政策制定者 认为，从长远来看，贸易争端将导致通胀。 货币政策声明要点 利率决定：三大关键利率各降25基点，存款利率调整为主要政策导向工具。 前瞻指引：承诺数据依赖，保持每次会议调整政策的灵活性，重点关注通胀前景、潜在通胀动态和政策 传导效果。 资金从美股转向欧元区股市，基金经理调查显示45%减持美股，欧元区被视为主要经济体中的"亮点"。 全球与欧元区经济分析 全球贸易与增长：美国关税政策导致IMF下调全球增长预期，需依赖财政刺激提振内需。全球供应链可 能因贸易摩擦走向碎片化，推高长期通胀风险。 贸易摩擦冲击：特朗普总统2025年4月2日宣布的高关税引发全 ...

Group 1 - The shift of funds from the US stock market to the Asia-Pacific region, including Japan, India, and Hong Kong, is creating new investment opportunities, but market liquidity must be maintained for long-term trading [1] - Investors are increasingly seeking targeted investment opportunities in the Asia-Pacific region, moving away from broad-based investments like index options [1] - The emergence of DeepSeek technology and escalating trade tensions are significantly altering investment patterns in the region [1] Group 2 - OTC Markets Group has observed a significant withdrawal of funds from the US stock market, with Asian stock trading volume on OTC platforms increasing by over 70% from Q1 2023 to Q1 2024 [2] - European trading volume on OTC platforms has also seen a similar trend, with a 30% increase from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025 due to trade tensions [2] - Companies are realizing the importance of dual market listings to enhance capitalization, as relying solely on US exchanges may not fully address valuation and liquidity issues [2] Group 3 - The Hong Kong stock market is becoming a hub for technology giants, with significant IPOs like CATL's, which raised approximately 35.657 billion HKD, marking it as one of the largest IPOs in recent years [3] - The perception of the Hong Kong market is shifting towards being a center for technology investments, increasing market volatility positively as overall stock performance improves [3] - The demand for technology stocks in Hong Kong is rising, leading to increased activity and opportunities for financial institutions to develop innovative financial products [4] Group 4 - There is a notable shift from broad investment strategies to more precise investment approaches, particularly in the technology sector in mainland China and Hong Kong [4] - The interest in specific financial products, such as Hang Seng Tech Index options and individual stock options, indicates a growing focus on targeted industry investments [4] - The diversification in industry distribution is providing significant opportunities for stock pickers, reflecting changes in market conditions and investor preferences [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 4.69 billion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.7% and a year-on-year increase of 12.9%, with a net profit of 1.8 billion yuan, which is in line with previous expectations and within the company's guidance range [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The net profit margin (take rate) for Q1 2025 was 5.2%, down from 5.9% in Q4 2024 [3]. - The company has adjusted its net profit forecast for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to 7.1 billion, 7.7 billion, and 8.2 billion yuan respectively, with slight upward adjustments of 0.5% for 2025 and 2026, and 0.2% for 2027 [3]. - The company’s guidance for Q2 2025 net profit is between 1.65 billion and 1.75 billion yuan, indicating confidence in achieving this target based on high-quality earnings [3]. Group 2: Loan Performance - The total loan volume for Q1 2025 was 88.9 billion yuan, showing a slight quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1.1% but a year-on-year increase of 15.8% [2]. - The loan balance reached 140.3 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.4% and a year-on-year increase of 5.5% [2]. - The company maintained a cautious lending strategy, with expectations for moderate growth in loan volume for 2025 [2]. Group 3: Risk Indicators - The C-M2 ratio increased to 0.60% in Q1 2025 from 0.57% in Q4 2024, while the first-day overdue rate rose to 5.0% [2]. - The provision coverage ratio improved to 666% in Q1 2025 from 617% in Q4 2024, indicating strong earnings quality [2]. - The cost of funds decreased by 30 basis points, attributed to the issuance of a significant amount of asset-backed securities (ABS) during the quarter [2].