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海外高频 | 中东地缘推涨金油(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
赵伟宏观探索· 2025-06-17 03:53
关注、加星,第一时间接收推送! 文 | 赵伟、 陈达飞、李欣越 联系人 | 李欣越 关注、加星,第一时间接收推送! 摘要 美元指数大幅下跌,原油价格暴涨。 当周,海外涨跌分化,韩国综合指数上涨2.9%,德国DAX 下跌 3.2%,道指下跌1.3%。10Y美债收益率下行10bp至4.41%;美元指数下跌1.1%至98.15。 WTI原油大涨 13%至73.0美元/桶,COMEX黄金上涨3.8%至3432.6美元/盎司。 中美第二轮贸易谈判结束,等待领导人批准协议。 6月11日,中美双方于伦敦举行的第二轮贸易谈判结 束,重点聚焦于落实日内瓦协议执行细节,涉及设立出口监督机制、放开稀土出口、优化学生签证等问 题。目前,谈判已完成,正等待双方领导最终批准。 5月美国核心CPI弱于市场预期,失业金申领人数上升。 5月美国核心CPI环比0.1%,低于市场预期,其中 服装、新车大幅降温,家电、玩具等分项仍有所升温,美国CPI在三、四季度或仍将进入上行区间;截止 6月7日当周,美国失业金初申领人数24.8万人,高于市场预期。 风险提示 地缘政治冲突升级;美国经济放缓超预期;国内政策变化超预期。 报告正文 1 大类资产:美元指 ...
日本央行:通胀预期已温和上升。
news flash· 2025-06-17 03:36
日本央行:通胀预期已温和上升。 ...
长城基金汪立:全球通胀预期增强
Xin Lang Ji Jin· 2025-06-17 01:32
Market Overview - The market experienced a slight decline with reduced trading volume, averaging approximately 10,939 billion yuan in daily transactions, as it awaits new breakthrough opportunities [1] - Growth stocks outperformed value stocks, with small-cap stocks leading the overall market performance [1] Macro Outlook - Domestic fundamentals may have passed the fastest decline phase, but PPI remains under pressure; attention is on credit data for the second half of the year [2] - New home transactions have seen a rebound, while automotive consumption has weakened; manufacturing activity remains low, and commodity price pressures persist [2] - CPI showed a month-on-month decrease in May, with a year-on-year decline for four consecutive months; core CPI's year-on-year growth has expanded, primarily due to energy and food prices [2] Market Sentiment - The overall negative impact of fundamentals on the market is still present, but the influence is being priced in; there is a need for early policy intervention to support domestic demand and alleviate supply pressures [3] - Internationally, U.S. soft data has improved, with consumer and business confidence rising, while hard data showed May CPI below expectations [3] Market Outlook - Current risk appetite is adjusting, with fundamental pressures and strong policy expectations; the market is expected to remain in a volatile state [4] - The market's pricing logic is gradually shifting from fundamentals to policy and liquidity expectations, with potential for recovery if favorable policies are introduced [4] Investment Strategy - Short-term market volatility is anticipated, with a focus on avoiding risks from event shocks; a barbell strategy is recommended [5] - Key sectors to watch include precious metals, military industry, and high-dividend assets, which are expected to perform well under current conditions [5]
黄金今日行情走势要点分析(2025.6.17)
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-17 00:56
1、地缘政治风险 黄金周一(6月16日)早盘高开上涨3452附近受阻后开始慢跌走势,欧盘维持在3410-3423区间震荡,美盘延续下跌,在跌至3383附近后反弹测试3405,尾盘 再次下跌3383附近,日线收出一根阴线。 一、基本面 以伊冲突升级:以色列空袭伊朗核设施,纳坦兹约1.5万台离心机可能受损或被毁,伊朗以导弹袭击回应,造成平民伤亡,推高市场避险情绪。 局势缓和与不确定性并存:伊朗外长称若美国迫使以色列停火,伊方将在核谈判中展现灵活性;但特朗普敦促伊朗签署核协议并要求德黑兰市民撤离,增加 了局势不确定性。 2、美联储政策会议 市场预期:美联储周三将结束政策会议,市场普遍预期维持利率不变,但关注其对2025年点阵图的调整及降息预期。 利率影响:芝商所数据显示,市场对12月底前降息50个基点或更多的可能性定价为65.2%,高利率环境对黄金(无息资产)构成压力,但地缘政治和通胀预 期可能抵消部分利空。 3、经济数据与通胀预期 即将公布数据:周二将出炉美国5月零售销售月率(预期-0.7%)和进口价格数据(预期下降0.2%),影响美联储首选通胀指标PCE,进而影响货币政策。 4、全球贸易与经济不确定性 G7峰会 ...
延迟降息让美国经济付出代价
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-06-16 22:06
Group 1 - The expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates has risen again due to cooling employment and inflation data in the U.S. [1] - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose to 247,000, exceeding market expectations and reaching the highest level in eight months, indicating a slowdown in the job market [1] - The core Producer Price Index (PPI) for May increased by 3.0% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 3.1%, further supporting the view of a cooling economy [1] Group 2 - The persistent high interest rates are causing structural pressures on the U.S. economy, particularly affecting investment in interest-sensitive sectors like manufacturing and real estate [2] - High financing costs are forcing some companies to delay equipment upgrades and capacity expansion plans, while households are burdened by rigid interest payments on mortgages and auto loans, leading to reduced disposable income [2] - The combination of weak demand and stagnant supply is weakening the growth momentum of the U.S. economy, with rising government debt interest burdens further constraining fiscal policy space [2] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve prioritizes maintaining price stability over short-term economic pain, influenced by historical lessons from the 1970s stagflation [3] - The Fed's unusual caution in the face of inflation risks reflects a deep-seated dilemma within the monetary policy framework, as current core inflation remains above the 2% target [2][3] - The U.S. economy is experiencing a rare contradiction, with simultaneous labor shortages and increased layoffs, complicating the traditional monetary policy response [3] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve is facing the consequences of previous policy misjudgments during the pandemic, which has led to an overly tight monetary policy to restore credibility [4] - The misalignment of political and business cycles forces monetary policy to address structural issues that should be handled by fiscal policy, complicating the decision-making process regarding interest rate cuts [4] - The Fed's cautious approach reflects a fear of reigniting inflation while also being wary of an economic slowdown leading to recession, indicating the limitations of a single monetary policy tool in navigating complex economic realities [4]
洪灏:2025下半年展望-周期与平衡(下)
2025-06-16 15:20
06-16 07:01 阅读 1817 2025年下半年全球、中国香港市场和主要资产类别的 预测和机遇。 在去年十一月展望今年的时候,我们旗帜鲜明地提出了几 个与当时的市场共识完全相悖的预测:1)美股在未来三个 月左右将出现大级别的暴跌; 2)中国是今年最逆共识的 交易;3)美元将开启贬值的趋势,黄金、贵金属将暴 沿。 这些与当时的市场共识完全相悖的预测,在过去的几个月 都 -- 得到了验证: 1) 美股在二、三月份见顶,并开始下 跌。同时,美股四月的暴跌以及伴生的市场波动率历史性 飙升,都是历史上最暴烈的一次;2)中国香港市场是今 年以来表现最好的主要市场之一,同时上市融资总量也回 到了世界之巅;3)美元是今年表现最差的主要货币,没 有之一。从我们预测至今,美元已经贬值了逾10%,而趋 势正在逐步加强,黄金则创了人类历史的新高,其它贵金 属如银和铂金已经开始暴涨。在四月二日美股史诗级暴跌 前、三月二十九日的那个周末,我在深圳和上海两地的读 者见面会上清晰地与读者们分享了我对于接踵而至的市场 暴跌的预测,以及如何做好风险管理的策略(图一) 洪瀬: 2025下半年展望 - 周期与平 衡 (下) 图一: 上半年的 ...
美国续请失业金人数大幅提升——海外周报第94期
一瑜中的· 2025-06-16 12:47
报告摘要 (一)未来一周重要经济数据及事件 美国: 6 月纽约联储制造业指数( 6/16 )、 5 月零售销售、 5 月制造业产出( 6/17 )、 5 月新屋开工、 5 月营建许可( 6/18 )、美联储议息会议( 6/19 )、 6 月费城联储制造业指数( 6/20 )。 文 : 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜(执业证号:S0360518090001) 联系人: 殷雯卿(19945767933) 欧元区: 欧洲央行首席经济学家连恩发表讲话( 6/18 )、 6 月消费者信心指数( 6/20 )。 日本: 日本央行公布利率决议( 6/17 )、 4 月核心机械订单、 5 月进出口数据( 6/18 )、 5 月 CPI 、核心 CPI 、日本央行行长植田和男发表讲话( 6/20 )。 (二)过去一周重要数据回顾 美国: 1 、纽约联储调查数据显示, 5 月美国消费者未来通胀预期全面下降,为 2024 年来首次,其中一年期通胀预期降幅最大,从 4 月的 3.6% 降至 3.2% ; 2 、 5 月美国 CPI 同比增长 2.4% ,核心 CPI 同比上涨 2.8% , 5 月 CPI 数据初步体现 ...
每日机构分析:6月16日
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-06-16 08:46
Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - Russell Investments suggests that the Federal Reserve may maintain current interest rates throughout the summer, with potential rate cuts of one to two times by the end of the year [1] - Goldman Sachs has downgraded the U.S. recession outlook, citing that the impact of tariffs is lower than expected and the financial environment has returned to pre-tariff levels [2] - The current inflation data in the U.S. indicates that the impact of tariffs on consumer prices may be less significant than anticipated, although future CPI increases are expected due to tariff effects [2] Group 2: Global Economic and Market Trends - Analysts from Deutsche Bank note that the market's inflation and interest rate expectations in Japan are rising, putting pressure on the long-term bond market [1] - The performance of German and U.S. government bonds is influenced by inflation concerns and safe-haven demand amid escalating tensions in the Middle East [2] - The decline in new home sales in Singapore is attributed to a lack of new launches, reflecting uncertainty in the macroeconomic outlook due to global trade challenges [3] Group 3: Currency and Oil Market Dynamics - The recent appreciation of the U.S. dollar is primarily driven by a rebound in oil prices rather than traditional safe-haven dynamics [4] - The U.S. has become one of the largest oil producers globally, which means that rising oil prices not only benefit oil-producing countries but also support the dollar through improved trade conditions [4] - Investors are advised to focus on global oil price changes and their impact on U.S. trade conditions for a more accurate prediction of the dollar's performance in international markets [5]
贵金属周报:中东紧张局势升级,金价再度走强-20250616
贵金属周报 2025 年 6 月 16 日 中东紧张局势升级,金价再度走强 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号:F0297587 投资咨询号:Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号:F0307990 投资咨询号:Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号:F03099478 投资咨询号:Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号:F3084165 投资咨询号:Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号:F03112296 投资咨询号:Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 ⚫ 上周黄金价格震荡上行,COMEX期金主力合约再度站上 3450美元/盎司上方,最高至3468美元/盎司,创近两个月 新高。主要因为中东地缘局势恶化,以色列空袭伊朗,再 次引发市场对中东地区爆发更广泛冲突的担忧,资金纷纷 涌向避险资产。而白银价格则呈震荡偏弱走势,COMEX期 银主 ...
2025年下半年全球市场展望:沉浮之间
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-16 06:04
Global Economic Outlook - The global economy in the second half of 2025 is characterized by "weak reality, strong shocks, and high volatility," with significant uncertainty and concerns about recession [1][8] - The U.S. economy shows signs of weakening core growth, with consumer spending support for GDP diminishing and inflation pressures re-emerging, potentially pushing CPI back to 3% by mid-year [2][26][32] - European economic improvement is limited, with weak domestic demand despite temporary boosts from fiscal deficits, and the European Central Bank expected to maintain a loose monetary policy with 1-2 rate cuts [2][9] - Japan's economy is under pressure from high inflation, with wage growth offset by rising prices, and a potential interest rate hike expected by the end of 2025 [2][9] Major Economies - The U.S. faces multiple pressures including consumption, inflation, and employment challenges, with rising fiscal deficit risks and delayed interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [3][12] - U.S.-China trade relations are undergoing adjustments, with some tariffs being suspended, but structural issues remain unresolved, leading to ongoing tensions in non-tariff areas [3][4] - The overall economic landscape is marked by a fragile balance, with the potential for a weak recovery amid high volatility [8] Asset Markets - Global asset markets are expected to experience high volatility in the second half of 2025, with the S&P 500 potentially testing previous highs around 6150 points, but facing risks from inflation and trade negotiations [4][10] - U.S. Treasury yields are projected to remain elevated, fluctuating between 4.2% and 4.7%, with 4.5% acting as a critical support and resistance level [4][10] - The Japanese market is anticipated to fluctuate between 36,000 and 40,000 points, influenced by currency volatility and persistent inflation [4][10] - Precious metals, particularly gold, are expected to continue their upward trend, presenting ongoing investment opportunities [4][10] Market Logic - The core market logic revolves around the interplay between policy expectations and economic realities, with high uncertainty stemming from U.S. fiscal and trade policies [5][8] - The weakening dollar may lead to capital inflows into emerging markets, enhancing the attractiveness of emerging market equities [5][8] - Investors are advised to navigate the complexities of the economic landscape by understanding policy directions and identifying structural opportunities amid volatility [5][8]