Core Points - The European Central Bank (ECB) consensus from the October meeting indicates a reluctance to lower interest rates, citing high uncertainty and the adequacy of current monetary policy [1] - The ECB decided to maintain interest rates, believing the current policy is in a "good state" due to economic resilience and inflation being close to target levels [1] - Market sentiment suggests that there is only about a one-third chance of further monetary easing by the ECB until 2026 [1] Summary by Sections Monetary Policy Stance - The ECB's October meeting minutes reveal a preference for maintaining a wait-and-see approach, with current policy rates viewed as robust enough to handle shocks [1] - Some officials believe the rate-cutting cycle may have ended, as favorable economic prospects are expected to persist unless risks materialize [1] Economic Indicators - Subsequent economic data released since the meeting has reinforced market expectations, showing that the Eurozone economy continues to grow, albeit at a slow pace [1] - Inflation rates remain anchored near the ECB's target of 2%, contributing to the confidence in the current monetary policy stance [1] Future Inflation Concerns - There is a potential for next year's inflation rate to fall below the target level due to the base effect from declining energy prices, which could reignite discussions on rate cuts [2] - Despite the ECB's traditional disregard for inflation fluctuations caused by energy price volatility, some board members warn that sustained low inflation readings could lower inflation expectations and lead to prolonged weak price growth [2]

土耳其财政部长穆罕默德·希姆谢克表示，家庭与实业部门通胀预期下降反映出政府自2023年中期实施 的"去通胀计划"正在发挥越来越明显的效果，预期持续改善将有助于逐步缓和企业定价行为。 虽然家庭与实业部门通胀预期下降支持官方"去通胀"叙事，但市场预期上行也表明通胀风险仍受到投资 者关注。值得注意的是，通胀预期下降的同时，认为未来一年通胀会回落的家庭比例也在下降，显示消 费者对价格稳定的节奏与持续性存疑。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经伊斯坦布尔11月26日电（记者许万虎）土耳其央行25日发布的一项调查显示，尽管市场机构的 通胀预期小幅上升，但11月家庭与实业部门对未来12个月的通胀预期整体回落。 根据调查结果，市场专业人士预计未来12个月的年通胀率为23.49%，较上月上升0.23个百分点。相比之 下，实业部门与家庭的预期继续走弱，其中，实业部门将未来12个月通胀预期下调0.6个百分点至 35.70%，家庭部门则将预期下调2.15个百分点至52.24%。 ...

来源：金融界AI电报 斯里兰卡央行：理事会认为，当前的货币政策立场将有助于引导通胀朝着5%的目标水平发展。预计通 胀率的上升速度将比此前预测的更为缓慢，并在2026年下半年趋近目标水平。预计核心通胀将以温和的 速度加速上升。中期通胀预期仍围绕通胀目标保持稳定。随着外汇流动性改善，卢比贬值压力得到缓 解。斯里兰卡法定准备金率设定为2%。 ...

A hiring sign is displayed in the window of a business in Manhattan on Nov. 27, 2025 in New York City.Consumers soured on the current economy and their prospects for the future, with worries growing over the ability to find a job, according to a Conference Board survey released Tuesday.The board's Consumer Confidence Index for November slumped to 88.7, a drop of 6.8 points from the prior month for its lowest reading since April. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones were looking for a reading of 93.2.In addition ...

Group 1 - U.S. Treasury prices have declined ahead of key economic data releases, with expectations of rising inflation pressures that may weaken market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [1][3] - The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose by 1 basis point to 4.04%, ending a three-day upward trend, while earlier it had dropped to the lowest level of the month [1] - Economists anticipate a rebound in the Producer Price Index (PPI) data, which is set to be released soon [1] Group 2 - Traders are betting on an approximately 80% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve on December 10, but a rebound in inflation could impact future policy direction [3] - The Chief Investment Officer at Northern Trust Asset Management indicated that delayed economic data due to government shutdowns may lead the Fed to implement a "preventive rate cut" next month [3] - The U.S. Treasury is set to auction 5-year notes and restart the issuance of 2-year notes, with investors showing avoidance in recent short-term Treasury auctions [3] Group 3 - There is a risk that yields may retreat from current levels as the 10-year yield approaches the critical 4% level, which has previously acted as resistance [4]

·摩根士丹利：印度财政赤字目标面临严峻挑战，收支失衡加剧 ·澳洲联邦银行：澳储行或于2026年重启加息，潜在增长放缓推升通胀风险 ·澳新银行-罗伊摩根数据显示，新西兰11月下旬通胀预期升至5.4%，创2023年12月以来新高，较10月上 升0.4个百分点。过去六个月周度预期均值维持在5.0%高位，持续高企的通胀预期将显著制约新西兰联 储进一步降息的空间，加大货币政策决策难度。 ·穆迪分析指出，亚太地区GDP增速将从2025年的4.1%放缓至2026年的3.6%，2027年进一步降至3.5%。 报告指出，今年出口激增主要受美国关税上调前的抢运效应驱动，难以持续；叠加疲弱的亚太多国国内 需求，不仅削弱抵消外部冲击的能力，也加剧通缩压力，区域增长前景面临挑战。 ·AMP经济学家指出，澳大利亚住房短缺约20万至30万套，主因移民增长长期超出住房供应能力。建议 将年度净移民从当前31.6万人削减至约20万人，以重建供需平衡，缓解日益严峻的住房负担能力危机。 ·澳联邦银行经济学家指出，若澳大利亚通胀压力持续、劳动力市场趋紧，澳洲联储可能在2026年重启 加息。尽管当前概率不高，但受生产率疲软拖累，澳大利亚潜在经济增长放缓 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that the market experienced a weak opening last Friday, with a minimum drop to 4022, close to the support level of 4000, followed by a strong rebound during the European and American sessions, peaking at 4102 before retreating [3] - The U.S. November one-year inflation expectation final value showed a decrease in concerns compared to the previous value, leading to a reduced expectation of rising inflation [4] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December increased to 69.4%, up from 39.6% just a week prior, influenced by comments from influential Federal Reserve officials [4] Group 2 - Short-term gold prices are fluctuating between the 4000-4100 range, with a higher probability of a decline, and there is a need to be cautious about the 4000 support level [5] - Last Friday, gold prices showed a rebound from a low, but the daily line indicates a potential for a bearish trend if the price does not break above 4101 [8] - The current key resistance level for gold is at 4073.2, and if this level is not surpassed, a bearish outlook is favored, with support around 4035 [8]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in precious metals is primarily driven by cyclical demand for gold, with silver prices outpacing gold [1] Group 1: Price Projections - By 2026, COMEX gold prices are expected to reach $4,500 per ounce, while silver prices are projected to rise to $55 per ounce, indicating further upside potential from current levels [1] Group 2: Investment Demand - The cyclical investment demand for precious metals has not peaked, as the U.S. monetary policy may shift towards easing in the short term, and long-term inflation expectations could remain unanchored [1] Group 3: Structural Support - The unique value of physical gold and the strategic nature of silver are expected to provide structural support for global central bank gold purchases, private physical investments, and regional stockpiling [1]

Core Viewpoint - The cyclical demand and structural trends in the precious metals market are expected to resonate through 2026, with projected COMEX gold prices rising to $4,500 per ounce and COMEX silver prices to $55 per ounce, indicating further upward potential compared to current forward curves [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The U.S. tariff policy in 2025 disrupted the global macro environment, leading to a cumulative increase of over 50% in international gold prices and over 70% in silver prices, outperforming other major asset classes [2] - The strong performance of precious metals this year has been primarily driven by cyclical buying demand from European and American ETFs, with silver's price increase surpassing that of gold [2][3] - The return of cyclical buying demand to the European and American ETF markets has been a key factor in the further price breakthroughs of gold this year, contrasting with the previous three years where emerging market central banks were the marginal source of gold investment demand [3] Group 2: Investment Trends - The unique value of physical gold and the strategic resource attributes of silver are expected to be further highlighted in the new macro order, providing structural support for global central bank gold purchases and private sector physical investments [2][5] - The development of investment products such as futures, options, and gold ETFs has provided more investment avenues, but physical gold remains irreplaceable in asset allocation [5] Group 3: Risks and Opportunities - The potential for significant price corrections in gold is a growing concern, with historical triggers identified, although the likelihood of cyclical turning points occurring in 2026 is considered low [4] - The recent "short squeeze" in the silver market has led to the U.S. including silver in its critical minerals list, which may increase the risk of tariffs on silver and heighten trade disruption risks [6]

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年11月21日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 黄金 1、基本面：美国9月非农新增就业人口11.9万大超预期，金价回落；美国三大股指 全线收跌，欧洲三大股指收盘全线上涨；美债收益率集体下跌，10年期美债收益率 跌4.83个基点报4.085%；美元指数涨0.10%报100.22，离岸人民币对美元小幅升值报 7.1179；COMEX黄金期货跌0.15%报4076.7美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货932.56，现货930.2，基差-2.36，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单90426千克，增加810千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向下，k线在20日 ...