Group 1: Major Asset Performance - The Hang Seng Index and other major indices saw mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.0% and the Nasdaq falling by 1.5% [2][8][13] - In the US, the S&P 500 sectors mostly declined, with energy and utilities up by 3.3% and 0.9% respectively, while consumer discretionary and information technology fell by 3.2% and 1.5% [8] - Emerging market indices generally increased, with the Korean Composite Index rising by 4.4% and the Ho Chi Minh Index by 3.2% [2] Group 2: Bond Yields - Developed countries' 10-year bond yields mostly increased, with the US yield rising by 5.0 basis points to 4.19% [19] - Emerging market 10-year bond yields also saw increases, with Turkey's yield up by 133.0 basis points to 29.06% [22] Group 3: Currency Movements - The US dollar index rose by 0.4% to 98.46, while other currencies depreciated against the dollar, including the euro and the British pound [25][35] - The offshore and onshore RMB appreciated against the dollar, with the onshore rate at 6.9890 [35] Group 4: Commodity Prices - Most commodity prices increased, with WTI crude oil rising by 1.0% to $57.3 per barrel, while gold and silver prices fell significantly, with gold down by 5.0% to $4317.8 per ounce [40][46] - Base metal prices saw an overall increase, with LME copper up by 2.4% to $12,510 per ton [46] Group 5: Geopolitical Events - The US military conducted airstrikes in Venezuela, escalating tensions in the region [56] - The Japanese government announced a record-high budget for the fiscal year 2026, totaling 122.3 trillion yen, a 6.3% increase from the previous year [61] Group 6: Trade Policy Updates - The US postponed tariff increases on soft furniture and kitchen cabinets from January 1, 2026, to January 1, 2027, maintaining the current 25% tariff rate [66] - The US Trade Representative announced a delay in additional tariffs on Chinese semiconductors for 18 months, starting with an initial rate of 0% [66] Group 7: Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes revealed a division among officials regarding future interest rate cuts, with some advocating for a pause to assess the impact on the economy [68] - Many participants noted that tariffs' inflationary effects are expected to diminish over time [68]

Group 1: Core Insights - The report predicts that the Producer Price Index (PPI) will slowly rebound to near zero in the first half of 2026, with the AR-gap and Phillips curve models indicating a mild recovery in PPI year-on-year, although the support from macro variables is weaker than the momentum of inflation itself [7][19]. - Beneficiary sectors during the historical periods when PPI rises from negative to positive include non-ferrous metals, real estate, building materials, machinery, electricity, home appliances, agriculture, coal, electronics, food and beverage, and pharmaceuticals [7][21]. - The liquidity-sensitive mode of major assets indicates that market sentiment has reached the upper range of historical thresholds, leading to a decrease in the explanatory power of sentiment on equity asset gains, suggesting a potential decline in momentum driven by sentiment [7][39]. Group 2: Inflation and Beneficiary Sectors - The report highlights that the "anti-involution" policy has led to market expectations of "price recovery," which helps to change the deflationary mindset, although the upward space for inflation is constrained by demand [19]. - Historical analysis shows that during periods when PPI rises from the bottom to near zero, sectors such as non-ferrous metals, real estate, building materials, machinery, steel, electricity, and public utilities exhibit significant positive marginal impacts on overall equity markets [21][27]. - The report identifies that the structural opportunities in the consumer sector are present, while the dividend sector faces both profit and valuation pressures [7][27]. Group 3: Macro and Funding Perspectives - The macro liquidity environment is characterized by a "price soft and volume stable" pattern, with marginal recovery in base currency issuance but still relying on rapid declines in interest rates to improve the overall funding situation [46]. - Global macro liquidity is also showing marginal recovery, primarily driven by strong expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to significant capital inflows into the Hong Kong stock market [46][48]. - The report notes that the recent surge in new applications for equity funds indicates a warming market sentiment, with expectations that major funds will concentrate their investments around the end of the first quarter of 2026 [53][60]. Group 4: Style Allocation - The report indicates that the information ratio for dividend and consumer sectors continues to decline, with no reversal signals currently, while the information ratio for cyclical sectors is rapidly strengthening, suggesting a shift in focus towards growth sectors to capture momentum gains [74]. - The growth sector's net value is approaching previous highs, but there is still significant room for the information ratio to rise, indicating a potential for better performance in this area [74].

发布时间：2026年01月05日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 冠通期货研究报告 冠通期货研究报告 冠通期货研究报告-- 宏观与大宗商品周报 冠通期货研究报告 冠通期货研究报告 冠通期货研究咨询部王静 执业资格证书编号：F0235424/Z0000771 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 市场综述 最近一周，岁序更替市场波动。海外地缘局势骤然紧张，美国突袭委内瑞拉活捉总统马杜罗，英法联合空袭叙利亚，投资者避险情绪抬升， VIX指数大幅上扬。风险资产涨跌互现，全球股市与大宗商品跌多涨少，A股震荡分化，BDI指数小幅回落。美元反弹，人民币强势依旧，大宗商 品整体承压分化延续，内部风格转换，贵金属大幅回落拖累商品，有色表现坚挺，油价延续弱势，黑色系延续反弹小幅上扬领跑商品。 冠通期货研究报告 冠通期货研究报告 国内债市全线回落近强远弱、股指震荡承压多数收跌，商品大类板块多数下挫表现弱势；股市震荡承压多数收跌，成长型风格表现相对于价 值型抗跌，中证5 ...

Geopolitical Risks - The U.S. military action against Venezuela is expected to cause significant fluctuations in international oil prices, with short-term production and exports being impacted, leading to a potential rise in oil prices[1] - If the U.S. invests in Venezuelan oil, it may lead to a downward shift in the price equilibrium in the medium to long term[1] Economic Impact - Short-term oil price increases may exacerbate inflation expectations in the U.S., potentially affecting the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut schedule[1] - The U.S. refinery utilization rate slightly increased to 94.7% in the week of December 26, 2025, compared to 94.6% the previous week[9] Market Performance - Emerging market stock indices rose by 2.27%, while developed market indices fell, with the S&P 500 down by 1.03%[8] - Commodity prices mostly declined, with the S&P-Goldman Commodity Index down by 0.37% and COMEX copper down by 2.62%[8] Inflation and Interest Rates - The 10-year inflation expectation in the U.S. rose by 3 basis points to 1.94% as of January 2, 2026[15] - The Federal Reserve is expected to be cautious with interest rate cuts due to geopolitical tensions affecting inflation[25] European Economic Indicators - Germany's manufacturing PMI decreased to 47.0%, while France and the UK saw increases to 50.7% and 50.6%, respectively[19] - Eurozone bond yields fell, with the 1-year yield decreasing from 2.0269% to 2.0237%[19]

周度报告-黄金 多头获利了结，贵金属高位回落 [走Ta势bl评e_级Ra：nk] 黄金：震荡 报告日期： 2026 年 1 月 4 日 [★Ta市bl场e_综Su述mm：ary] 伦敦金跌 4.4%至 4332 美元/盎司。10 年期美债收益率升至 4.19%， 通胀预期 2.26%，实际利率微升至 1.93%，美元指数涨 0.46%至 98.4， 标普 500 指数跌 1.03%，人民币升值破 7，沪金维持折价。 贵 金 属 贵金属冲高回落，白银剧烈波动，国际银价一度上涨至 82 美元/ 盎司后下跌至 72.8 美元/盎司，当周收跌 8.2%。随着 12 月交割月 的结束白银短期逼空行情告一段落，CME 一周两度上调黄金、白 银等贵金属保证金，上海期货交易所亦小幅上调贵金属保证金， 交易所降温意图明显，多头在元旦假期前获利了结离场。1 月 8-14 日，Bloomberg 商品指数迎来年度权重调整，由于 2025 年贵金属 涨幅显著高于能源、农场品等其他大宗商品，贵金属权重需要被 动降低，跟踪该指数的基金也需要相应做出调整，短期会给贵金 属带来抛压，波动预计仍会增加，但不改变长期趋势。 基本面维度关注即将公 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the Treasury bond futures market showed a pattern of oscillating downward, the yield curve became steeper, and the TL contract broke below the support platform. In the medium term, due to reasons such as the relatively restrained monetary policy of the central bank, the change in inflation expectations, the orientation of long - and medium - term capital entry into the market, and the inability to falsify the 14th Five - Year Plan policy expectations, the view of an overall oscillating and bearish trend is maintained [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Focus and Market Tracking - This week, the Treasury bond futures market showed an oscillating downward pattern, with the yield curve becoming steeper and the TL contract breaking below the support platform. In the medium term, due to factors like the central bank's relatively restrained monetary policy, inflation expectation change, long - and medium - term capital inflow orientation, and unfalsifiable 14th Five - Year Plan policy expectations, the overall view is oscillating and bearish [1][3]. - The market showed a differentiated feature of short - end stability and increased long - end volatility this week. Short - end interest rates were supported by loose liquidity, while the long - end was pressured by policy expectations. After the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Office proposed to implement a "more proactive fiscal policy" in 2026 on December 25th, market concerns about the supply pressure of ultra - long bonds increased. Currently, the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds has risen to a nearly two - year high, and the value of the ultra - long end is emerging [5]. 3.2. Liquidity Monitoring and Curve Tracking - Not provided 3.3. Seat Analysis - On December 29th, the market opening was expected to trigger a quantitative selling signal, leading to an increase in trading volume. Private funds reduced their positions intraday, intensifying the position reduction of allocation - type institutions. Currently, the cost - effectiveness of the ultra - long end is gradually emerging, and various institutions have a slight willingness to test positions intraday [10].

（原标题：巴西通胀预期持续回落，预期2025年为4.32%） 巴西媒体12月30日报道，据巴金融市场预计，2025年通胀率将为4.32%，低于通胀目标容忍度上限 的4.5%水平。市场维持此前预期，预计巴2025年国内生产总值（GDP）增速为2.26%。目前巴基准利率 维持在15%水平不变。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the gold and silver markets are expected to maintain a strong trend driven by the transformation of the macro - financial order and the tight micro - supply - demand structure, but their logical paths will significantly diverge [1][2][3]. - Gold's core narrative revolves around the deepening of "de - dollarization" and the revaluation of credit assets. It is expected to rise in a high - level shock in 2026, with the price range between $4,700 - $5,055 per ounce [2]. - Silver will enter an independent bull market dominated by "rigid industrial demand" and "supply bottlenecks". It is expected to challenge the $75 - $100 per ounce range in 2026 [3]. - For trading strategies, gold should be allocated as a "ballast stone" in the portfolio on dips; silver can be considered for trend - following long positions driven by industrial demand, but strict stop - losses are required. Attention can be paid to the arbitrage window brought by the mean - reversion of the gold - silver ratio [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. 2025: Gold and Silver Continued to Shine 1.1 K - shaped Differentiation in the Performance of Major Asset Classes in 2025 - Equity and fixed - income assets: Chinese stocks rose 17.60% in 2025, and global stocks rose 17.63%. In the bond market, domestic bonds' returns dropped to 0.64%, while global bonds were relatively stable at 3.02% [9]. - Precious metals: Gold's return reached 53.91% in 2025, and silver's return was as high as 132.11%, becoming the best - performing asset class of the year [10]. - Energy and commodities: Crude oil had a return of - 10.82% in 2025, falling for two consecutive years. Industrial products and agricultural products also showed negative growth [11]. - Other assets: Real estate continued to slump, while foreign exchange and cash had stable and moderate positive returns [13][14]. 1.2 Liquidity Release and Demand Imagination Space Boosted the Surge of Gold and Silver - Gold showed strong anti - decline ability, with positive returns in 9 out of 12 observed years. In 2025, its increase was as high as 53.91% [15]. - Silver had higher volatility and elasticity. In 2025, it soared by 132.11%, driven by strong industrial demand and financial speculation funds [15]. 1.3 Multiple Narratives Drove the Soaring of Gold and Silver in 2025 - Gold market: It had two clear bull markets in 2025. The first wave was triggered by Trump's radical policies, and the second wave was due to the Fed's dovish turn and the revaluation of the US dollar's credit. At the end of the year, the price fluctuated at a high level [17][18]. - Silver market: It lagged behind in the first half of the year and then led the rise. In December, a "short - squeeze" market pushed the silver price to a new high [21]. 2. Multiple Factors May Push the Gold Price Higher 2.1 Global Monetary System Reconstruction: Gold Value Revaluation under the De - dollarization Wave - Dollar's decline in global reserves: The dollar's share in global official reserves dropped to 56.3% in Q2 2025, and it is expected to continue to decline. Gold's share in global official reserves has increased, and it is expected to reach the historical median level of 34% in 2026 [25][32]. - Emerging market central banks' gold purchases: Since 2022, emerging market central banks have been accelerating their gold purchases to hedge against the dollar risk. In 2022 - 2024, the average annual gold demand of central banks was 1072.3 tons, more than double the previous level [33]. 2.2 Monetary Policy Easing of Countries Led by the Fed - Global monetary policy has shifted from tightening to easing since 2025. The Fed's interest - rate cuts will reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, which is beneficial to the gold price [41][43]. 2.3 Long - term Benefits of Expansionary Fiscal Policy and Global Debt Levels to the Gold Price - The continuous expansion of fiscal deficits and government debts in major economies, especially the US, has weakened the credibility of sovereign - credit currencies. Gold, as a hard asset, has become the preferred choice to hedge against such risks [45]. 2.4 Re - evaluation of Inflation Expectations and Gold's Safe - haven Attribute - In 2026, global inflation shows significant differentiation. Whether inflation is high or there is a deflation risk, the value of gold as an ultimate safe - haven asset will be reflected [51][55]. 2.5 Market Investment Demand: Resonance of Institutional Allocation and ETF Fund Inflows - Global gold ETFs: In 2025, the inflow of funds into global gold ETFs reached a new high since 2020. In 2026, the return of ETF investors and the continuous buying of central banks will jointly push up the gold price [56][58]. - Institutional investors' re - balance of gold asset allocation: In 2026, adding gold to the investment portfolio can reduce volatility and improve risk - adjusted returns. The proportion of gold assets held by institutional investors has increased from 1.5% to 2.8% [60]. 2.6 Geopolitical Risks: Ultimate Safe - haven Asset in an Uncertain Environment - Geopolitical conflicts: In 2025, geopolitical tensions provided support for the gold price. In 2026, although the risk may be reduced, it cannot be completely eliminated, and gold's strategic value will continue to exist [62][63]. - Global elections: The elections in major economies in 2025 - 2026 will bring policy uncertainties, which will strengthen the allocation value of gold as a tool to hedge against policy risks [66]. 2.7 Gold Supply Side: Fundamental Constraint of Scarcity - Gold supply is limited. The annual growth rate of new gold mining is slow, and the production cost has increased significantly. The cost - support effect on the gold price will be reflected in the pricing [69][72][73]. 2.8 Gold Demand Side: Strong and Diverse - Global gold demand has been increasing in the past three years. The consumption structure is changing from jewelry - dominated to investment and official - reserve - driven. Central bank gold purchases and gold ETF investments have become the key driving forces [77][79][80]. 3. The Global Silver Supply - Demand Gap is an Important Driver of Capital Inflows 3.1 Silver Supply Status and Capacity Bottlenecks - Silver supply has been in a state of tightness. The annual compound growth rate of global silver mine production has been negative since 2019. More than 70% of silver comes from associated mines, which restricts supply growth. It is expected that the supply growth will remain slow in the future [81][83]. 3.2 Photovoltaic Industry: Core Growth Engine of Silver Demand - The photovoltaic industry is the core driver of silver demand growth. The demand for silver in the photovoltaic field accounts for 17% of the total silver demand in 2024. The replacement of P - type batteries by N - type batteries will increase the demand for silver [88][89]. 3.3 Silver Demand Potential in the New - Energy Vehicle Field - New - energy vehicles have become an important growth engine for silver demand. The silver consumption of pure electric vehicles is 1.7 times that of fuel - powered vehicles. It is predicted that the annual growth rate of silver consumption in the automotive industry will be 4.5% - 12.5% from 2025 - 2027 [94][96]. 3.4 Silver Demand Potential in the Fields of Artificial Intelligence, 5G, and the Internet of Things - These emerging fields provide new application spaces for silver. The silver demand in these fields is expected to increase significantly in the future, and they will jointly form the "four pillars" of silver industrial demand [97][98]. 3.5 Support of Continuous Inventory Depletion to the Silver Price - As of December 2025, global silver inventories are at a low level. The low - inventory problem is caused by the long - term contradiction between the explosion of photovoltaic demand and the rigidity of mineral supply, which will support the silver price in the future [100][103][104]. 4. Forecast of Gold and Silver Price Trends in 2026 4.1 Forecast of Gold and Silver Price Trends in 2026 by This Report - Gold: It is expected to rise in a high - level shock in 2026, with the price range between $4,700 - $5,055 per ounce. The price may fluctuate around $4,700 in the first half of the year, break through $5,000 in the middle of the year, and may be adjusted in the second half of the year, but the decline will be limited [105][106]. - Silver: It will enter an independent bull market driven by "structural shortages" in 2026, with the price range between $75 - $100 per ounce. The price is more determined by inventory and delivery risks [108][109]. 4.2 Forecast of Gold and Silver Price Trends in 2026 by Other Institutions - Gold: Most international investment banks are optimistic about the gold price in 2026, with target prices concentrated in the $4,500 - $5,055 range [111][112]. - Silver: The current price has exceeded most institutions' forecasts. Some institutions expect the silver price to reach $100 per ounce [113][114]. 5. Gold and Silver Trading Strategies in 2026 5.1 Unilateral Strategies for Gold and Silver in 2026 - Gold: Adopt a strategy of buying on dips and use it as a core allocation in the investment portfolio. Buy in batches when the price corrects by 5% - 10% [117]. - Silver: Closely monitor the development of key industries such as photovoltaics and new - energy vehicles. Adopt an active long - position strategy when the industrial demand is strong, and set strict stop - losses [118]. - Hedging strategy: Adding precious metals to the investment portfolio can reduce the overall asset volatility and effectively disperse risks [119]. 5.2 Arbitrage Trading Based on the Mean - Reversion of the Gold - Silver Ratio - The gold - silver ratio has a characteristic of mean - reversion. When the ratio is at an extreme level, buy the undervalued one and sell the overvalued one. In 2026, pay attention to the extreme changes in the gold - silver ratio for arbitrage opportunities [122][123].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in copper prices, with LME three-month copper prices increasing over 40% and reaching a historical high of $12,960 per ton by December 29, 2025, driven by macroeconomic factors and supply-demand dynamics [1][2][5] - The surge in copper prices has positively impacted the stock market, particularly in the non-ferrous metal sector, with the industry index rising over 92% in 2025, and leading companies like Zijin Mining and Jiangxi Copper seeing stock price increases of over 125% and 153%, respectively [2][5] - Analysts predict that the upward trend in copper prices will continue into 2026, supported by a tight supply of copper concentrate and strong demand driven by AI and energy infrastructure developments [5][6] Group 2 - The analysis indicates that the copper market is experiencing a "copper rush," influenced by both the monetary attributes of commodities and fundamental supply-demand factors, with a notable increase in demand from AI data centers and global energy facility reconstruction [3][4][5] - The supply side is facing challenges, including production disruptions and a tightening of copper concentrate availability, which are expected to persist and contribute to price increases [4][6] - The outlook for 2026 suggests that copper prices could range between 83,000 yuan/ton and 130,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai copper futures, and between $10,300/ton and $16,000/ton for LME three-month copper, driven by ongoing supply constraints and robust demand [5][6]

Group 1: Precious Metals Market - Gold and silver futures prices have significantly declined due to the CME Group's decision to raise margin requirements for trading these metals, leading to profit-taking by investors before the new rules took effect, causing international metal prices to drop multiple times, with gold prices falling below $4500 per ounce [2][7] - The recent surge in silver prices, which have increased over 185% this year, is attributed to speculative inflows and supply disruptions, with analysts noting a high demand premium for physical silver [3][8] - A rumor regarding a major bank's short position in silver futures led to a sharp decline in precious metal prices, with silver dropping over 10% and platinum and palladium experiencing declines of around 15% [9] Group 2: Fund and Stock Market Developments - The National Investment Silver LOF has seen a significant drop in premium from nearly 70% to below 30% after two consecutive days of trading halts, highlighting issues of product innovation and premium risks in the public fund market [2][7] - The stock of *ST Dongyi is set to resume trading with an adjusted opening reference price of 8.14 yuan per share following a capital reserve increase [2][7] - Several high-performing stocks have issued risk warnings, indicating potential rapid declines in stock prices due to deviations from fundamental values [4][9] Group 3: Regulatory and Corporate Governance - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission emphasized the need for reforms in state-owned enterprises to enhance competitiveness and governance structures [3][8] - *ST Panda is under investigation by the China Securities Regulatory Commission for alleged information disclosure violations, facing delisting risks if conditions are not met by 2025 [4][9] Group 4: Banking and Financial Issues - A case involving the misappropriation of over 10 million yuan by a bank employee has raised questions about the accountability of the bank, with ongoing civil litigation initiated by affected depositors [10] - The bond futures market has seen a decline across the board, attributed to inflation expectations and rising yields on government bonds in China, Japan, and the U.S. [10]