Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Gold: Powell's fake resignation letter caused a stir, the US-Japan agreement may be reached, and gold prices continued to rise. The risk - preference increased, but the gold price still went up due to high Fed rate - cut expectations. The premium of Shanghai gold converged to - 2.3 yuan/gram, and the domestic sentiment did not heat up [4]. - Silver: With the domestic commodity boom, Shanghai silver continued to hit a record high. The high Fed rate - cut expectations and the commodity upsurge supported the silver price. The premium of Shanghai silver slightly expanded to about 380 yuan/kg, and the domestic sentiment heated up [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: US stock indices closed mixed, European stock indices closed mixed, US bond yields declined across the board (10 - year US bond yield fell 3.17 basis points to 4.344%), the US dollar index dropped 0.49% to 97.36, and COMEX gold futures rose 1.10% to $3444.00 per ounce [4]. - **Silver**: US and European stock indices closed mixed, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.83% to $39.66 per ounce [6]. 3.2. Daily Hints - **Gold**: The basis was - 4.29 (spot at a discount to futures, bearish); the inventory of gold futures remained unchanged at 28,857 kg (bearish); the 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average (neutral); the main net position was long, and the main long position decreased (bullish) [5]. - **Silver**: The basis was - 36 (spot at a discount to futures, neutral); the warehouse receipts of Shanghai silver futures decreased by 5,420 kg to 1,199,046 kg (neutral); the 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average (bullish); the main net position was long, and the main long position decreased (bullish) [6]. 3.3. Today's Focus - 09:30: Speech by Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Uchida Shinichi - 10:00: Press conference on Hainan Free Trade Port construction - Time TBD: Precision Manufacturing Forum for Humanoid Robots from July 23 - 25 - Time TBD: 2025 OpenAtom Open - Source Ecosystem Conference - Time TBD: 24th China Internet Conference from July 23 - 25 - Time TBD: First Shanghai International Low - Altitude Economy Expo from July 23 - 26 - Time TBD: Japan's Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru hosts EU - Japan annual summit - 22:00: US existing home sales in June, preliminary reading of Eurozone consumer confidence index in July - Time TBD: US President Trump's speech on "Winning the AI Race" [15] 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The fundamental situation was neutral. The Fed rate - cut expectations were high, and the commodity upsurge supported the gold price. The premium of Shanghai gold converged, and the domestic sentiment did not heat up [4]. - **Silver**: The domestic commodity boom led to Shanghai silver hitting a record high. The high Fed rate - cut expectations and the commodity upsurge supported the silver price, and the domestic sentiment heated up [6]. 3.5. Position Data - **Gold**: The main net position was long, and the main long position decreased. The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai gold increased by 2.46% to 210,949, the short position decreased by 1.35% to 61,692, and the net position increased by 4.12% to 149,257 [5][31]. - **Silver**: The main net position was long, and the main long position decreased. The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai silver decreased by 0.25% to 466,291, the short position increased by 1.38% to 372,943, and the net position decreased by 6.26% to 93,348 [32].

Group 1 - President Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, calling him a "dummy" for maintaining high interest rates, which he believes are detrimental to the economy [2] - Trump stated that Powell will leave his position in eight months, specifically by mid-March, although it is unclear why this timeframe was chosen [2] - Economists warned that efforts to push the Federal Reserve to loosen monetary policy could backfire, potentially leading to rising inflation expectations [2] Group 2 - Trump emphasized that the economy is strong, but high interest rates are making housing unaffordable for many [3] - Despite the Federal Reserve lowering policy rates by 1 percentage point last year, mortgage rates have increased, following the rise in U.S. Treasury yields [3] - Concerns were raised about the Federal Reserve's mission being misaligned, with criticism directed at the spending on new buildings and renovations [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although the recent market risk appetite remains high and the US signals on tariff negotiations are optimistic, with the upcoming tariff deferral period in early August, gold is expected to gradually return to the safe - haven logic in the short term, but the rise may be slow due to the strong US economic data and the post - poned Fed rate - cut expectation to September. It is recommended to buy on dips. For silver, while the recovery of risk appetite benefits its industrial attributes, there is a risk of weakening in the medium - term real demand, so cautious chasing of gains is advised [4]. - In the medium - to - long term, considering the ongoing trade war, the probability of Fed rate cuts this year, global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified great - power games, and the trend of de - dollarization, the center of gravity of gold prices is likely to continue to move up [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking of Precious Metals - **Precious Metal Prices**: On July 21, 2025, London gold spot was at $3367.28/ounce, London silver spot at $38.30/ounce, COMEX gold at $3374.80/ounce, and COMEX silver at $38.60/ounce. The prices of domestic gold and silver futures and spot also had corresponding values. Compared with July 18, the price of London gold spot increased by 0.8%, London silver spot decreased by 0.1%, etc. [3] - **Price Spreads and Ratios**: On July 21, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread was - 2.02 yuan/gram, and the silver TD - SHFE active price spread was - 14 yuan/kg. Compared with July 18, the changes in price spreads and ratios varied, such as the gold TD - SHFE active price spread increasing by 1.0% [3] 3.2 Position Data - **COMEX and ETF Positions**: As of July 15, 2025 (weekly data), for COMEX gold, non - commercial long positions were 270227 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 57112 contracts, and the net long position was 213115 contracts. For gold ETF - SPDR, the position on July 18 was 943.62 tons, a decrease of 0.51% compared with July 17 [3] - **Inventory Data**: On July 21, 2025, SHFE gold inventory was 28857 kg, with no change compared with July 18; SHFE silver inventory was 1204466 kg, a decrease of 0.55% compared with July 18 [3] 3.3 Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Stock Market Data - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: On July 21, 2025, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 4.44%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 3.88%, the US dollar index was 98.46, etc. Compared with July 18, the 2 - year US Treasury yield increased by 0.03%, the US dollar index decreased by 0.18%, etc. [4] 3.4 Market News and Analysis - **Economic Data**: The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the US in July was 61.8, higher than the expected 61.5. The preliminary value of the 1 - year inflation expectation was 4.4%, lower than the expected 5% [4] - **Policy and Geopolitical News**: US President Trump is promoting a minimum tariff increase of 15% - 20% on all EU goods. The LDP in Japan suffered a historic defeat in the Senate election, but Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru said he would continue to govern [4]

星展银行与新加坡管理大学联合调查表明，尽管面临不确定性，新加坡通胀预期已降至2021年12月以来 最低水平，释放出积极企稳信号。6月份未来一年整体通胀预期从3月的3.8%降至3.5%。（新华财经） ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年7月22日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：美元走低，贸易担忧再起，降息预期高涨，金价走高；美国三大股指收 盘涨跌不一，欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一；美债收益率全线走低，10年期美债收益 率跌3.38个基点报4.3757%；美元指数跌0.64%报97.83，离岸人民币对美元小幅升值 报7.1810；COMEX黄金期货涨1.55%报3410.30美元/盎司；中性 6、预期：今日关注国新办发布会、人社部二季度新闻发布会、美联储主席鲍威尔及 委员讲话。国内风险偏好改善，贸易担忧再起，降息预期高涨，美元走弱，金价震 荡收涨。沪金溢价收敛至-1.1元/ ...

加拿大央行调查：五年期通胀预期已从第一季度的3.39%上升至3.45%。 ...

Group 1 - The core theme for 2025 is the weakness of the US dollar, which has shown its worst performance since 1973 in the first half of this year [1] - The performance of US Treasury bonds has also been poor, with a noticeable slowdown in capital inflow during periods of heightened uncertainty [1] - In contrast, demand for gold ETFs has significantly increased, with total assets under management (AUM) rising by 41% to $383 billion, and total holdings increasing by 397 tons to 3,616 tons, marking the highest level since August 2022 [1] Group 2 - As of July 18, spot gold closed at $3,350.05, showing slight fluctuations, with a "deep V" pattern reflecting intensified market dynamics [1] - Economic data has been strong, suppressing rate cut expectations and boosting the dollar, while tariff policies have raised inflation expectations, driving investors to allocate to gold for risk hedging [1] - Gold is currently at a balance point between short-term economic strength and long-term inflation concerns, highlighting its safe-haven value [1] Group 3 - Recent reports indicate that US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin privately advised President Trump against attempting to dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, suggesting potential rate cuts by the Fed before the end of the year [2]

Economic Overview - In July, economic prices increased while volumes decreased, indicating a search for rebalancing in supply and demand, with marginal economic growth expected to slow down[1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a month-on-month increase, with the year-on-year decline in growth narrowing, primarily driven by the "anti-involution" policy expectations[1][45] Real Estate Market - The sales sentiment in the real estate market weakened, with both month-on-month and year-on-year growth turning negative; the average daily transaction area in 30 major cities decreased by 15.85% compared to June[2][11] - It is anticipated that first-tier city housing prices may stabilize by the end of the year, while second-tier cities may see stabilization by June next year[2][48] Industrial Demand - Industrial demand showed a mild recovery, with the rebar production rate increasing to 43.06%, up 0.87 percentage points from June, while prices slightly decreased by 0.16%[15] - The average operating rate for asphalt plants rose to 32.4%, indicating a recovery in demand, with asphalt inventory decreasing by 7.31%[18] Consumer Behavior - July consumer spending is expected to remain resilient, supported by a surge in tourism during the summer, with domestic tourism projected to exceed 2.5 billion trips, recovering to over 115% of 2019 levels[26] - The average daily subway ridership in major cities increased, reflecting a rebound in travel demand during the summer[23] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include unexpected intensification of global trade frictions, geopolitical conflicts, and policy effects falling short of expectations[3]

宏 观 研 究 美国：居民消费仍具韧性 [Table_Authors] ——海外经济政策跟踪 本报告导读： 本周高频数据显示美欧经济仍具有一定韧性，美国市场调查层面和交易层面通胀预 期出现分化，关税对美国通胀的影响或逐渐体现，美联储对后续降息仍有耐心。 投资要点： 风险提示：海外货币政策调整超预期，关税政策的不确定性。 宏 观 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.07.20 [Table_Report] 2025-07-21 [Table_Summary] 全球大类资产表现。本周（2025.7.11-2025.7.18），大宗商品价格涨 跌互现。其中，COMEX 铜下跌 1.2%，伦敦金现下跌 0.15%，标普-高 盛商品指数上涨 0.35%。 主要经济体股市普遍上涨，其中恒生指数 上涨 2.8%，日经 225 上涨 0.6%，标普 500 上涨 0.6%。债市方面， 10 年期美债收益率较前一周回升 1BP 至 4.44%，国内 10Y 国债期货 价格下跌 0.04%。外汇市场方面，美元指数较前一周回升，报收 98.5， 日元和人 ...

瑞典北欧斯安银行：日本政坛不稳定性加剧，高额债务下的财政压力增加 巴克莱：解雇鲍威尔或适得其反，美联储独立性对货币政策走向至关重要 【机构分析】 瑞典北欧斯安银行首席经济学家Robert Bergqvist在报告中指出，日本执政联盟在周日参议院选举中的重 大失利，将加剧本已紧张的美日关系。在美日关系紧绷的背景下，此次败选将进一步放大日本政坛的不 稳定性。根据国际货币基金组织（IMF）预测，日本政府债务到2025年将达GDP的235%。日本政界人 士仍需兑现竞选时承诺的财政刺激措施。这意味着即使面临高额债务，日本政府也面临着实施财政刺激 以满足选民期望的压力。 巴克莱分析指出，解雇现任美联储主席鲍威尔并不会促使联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）更快地进行降 息。实际上，这种行为可能会导致相反的效果。如果市场开始质疑美联储的独立性，这可能导致通胀预 期上升以及长期利率（收益率）的攀升。这样的市场反应可能会迫使FOMC采取更为保守的态度，甚至 有可能延长维持现有利率的时间，或者在必要时重启加息以应对潜在的通胀压力。美联储即使任命了一 位新的美联储主席，这位新主席也很难单方面改变货币政策的方向。任何货币政策的变化都需要得 ...