降息预期

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非农报告成黄金市场关键风向标
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-07-03 02:08
周四(7月3日)亚市早盘,现货黄金短线冲高回落,黄金价格失守3350美元关口,ADP就业数据的疲软 点燃了降息预期,成为金价上涨的直接催化剂,今日即将发布的非农就业报告将进一步决定市场走势的 方向。 黄金价格周三震荡上行,当天最低3327,最高3360,日线小阳收于3356,日线看今日金价还将继续上 涨,上方关注3400一线,四小时线,震荡上行,小时线,早间冲高3365回落,目前处于3350下方,下方 关注3330和3300,重点关注晚间非农数据。 高盛分析师的预测更为悲观,认为新增就业岗位可能仅为8.5万个,且联邦政府职位减少1.5万个,特朗 普政府的移民政策收紧及关税对制造业的持续拖累可能进一步加剧就业市场的压力。 Kitco Metals高级分析师Jim Wyckoff警告,如果非农数据远超预期,可能会削弱降息预期,对金价走势 构成利空。 非农就业报告的重要性不仅在于其数据本身,还在于其对美联储货币政策路径的指引。就业市场的任何 意外表现都可能引发市场剧烈波动。如果数据继续显示劳动力市场疲软,投资者对降息的信心将进一步 增强,金价有望延续涨势。反之,若数据强劲,美联储可能放缓降息步伐,短期内对金价形成压 ...
《有色》日报-20250703
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-07-03 02:03
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Short - term copper prices are strong. The core drivers are the ongoing "232" investigation in the US and the unresolved LME warehouse receipt issue, which provide strong support for copper prices. Before the "232" investigation is finalized, the tight supply situation in non - US regions is difficult to reverse, and the main contract is expected to trade between 80,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to be weak in the short - term, with the main contract trading in the range of 2,750 - 3,150 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate widely at high levels in the short - term, with the main contract trading between 20,000 - 20,800 yuan/ton [4]. Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum alloy prices are expected to be weak and fluctuate, with the main contract trading between 19,200 - 20,000 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - Short - term zinc prices have rebounded due to higher interest rate cut expectations and a weak US dollar. However, the fundamentals have not improved substantially, and a short - on - rallies strategy is recommended in the medium - to - long - term, with the main contract trading between 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [8]. Nickel - The macro - sentiment provides support, but the nickel fundamentals have not changed much. The cost support for refined nickel has weakened, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose. The price upside is limited. The short - term price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract trading between 116,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton [10]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term under macro - support, with the main contract trading between 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to policy trends and steel - mill production cut rhythms [12]. Tin - In the short - term, tin prices are expected to be strong and fluctuate. However, considering the pessimistic demand outlook, a short - on - rallies strategy based on inventory and import data is recommended [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term fundamentals of lithium carbonate still face pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the performance around 65,000 yuan/ton and changes in macro - expectations [17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper rose 0.98% to 80,990 yuan/ton. The premium of SMM 1 electrolytic copper decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 120 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap spread increased by 11.18% to 2,403 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, a decrease of 0.30%. In May, the import volume was 253,100 tons, an increase of 1.23%. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 12.44% week - on - week [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum rose 0.14% to 20,810 yuan/ton. The premium of SMM A00 aluminum decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, alumina production was 7.2581 million tons, a decrease of 0.19%. Electrolytic aluminum production was 3.609 million tons, a decrease of 3.22%. The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic aluminum increased by 0.86% week - on - week [4]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 20,100 yuan/ton. The 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to 85 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 100% to 0 tons. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 0.38% to 26,100 tons. The import volume of unforged aluminum alloy ingots increased by 11.75% [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot rose 0.04% to 22,290 yuan/ton. The import loss decreased by 262.82 yuan/ton to - 911 yuan/ton [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, refined zinc production was 585,100 tons, an increase of 6.50%. The social inventory of Chinese zinc ingots in seven regions increased by 3.60% week - on - week [8]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel rose 0.49% to 122,050 yuan/ton. The premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel decreased by 3.85% to 2,500 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, Chinese refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, a decrease of 10.04%. The import volume was 19,157 tons, an increase of 116.90%. The SHFE inventory decreased by 1.51% week - on - week [10]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) rose 0.40% to 12,700 yuan/ton. The spot - futures spread decreased by 23.08% to 200 yuan/ton [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, the production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) was 1.7912 million tons, an increase of 0.36%. The social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan decreased by 0.28% week - on - week [12]. Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin rose 0.75% to 268,500 yuan/ton. The import loss decreased by 17.60% to - 13,401.25 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, tin ore imports were 13,449 tons, an increase of 36.39%. SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, a decrease of 2.37% [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate rose 0.57% to 61,650 yuan/ton. The 2507 - 2508 spread increased by 160 yuan/ton to 140 yuan/ton [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, lithium carbonate production was 78,090 tons, an increase of 8.34%. The demand was 918,866 tons, a decrease of 0.15%. The total inventory increased by 2.27% month - on - month [17].
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:贵金属及基本金属-20250703
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-03 01:40
国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025年07月03日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金:降息预期升温 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银:继续冲高 | 2 | | 铜:美元承压,价格坚挺 | 4 | | 锌:区间运行 | 6 | | 铅:中期偏强 | 7 | | 锡:宏观环境带动上行 | 8 | | 镍:矿端支撑有所松动,冶炼端限制上方弹性 | 10 | | 不锈钢:库存边际小幅去化,钢价修复但弹性有限 | 10 | 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 3 日 黄金:降息预期升温 白银:继续冲高 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | -- ...
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20250703
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-03 01:38
2025年07月03日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金:降息预期升温 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银:继续冲高 | 3 | | 铜:美元承压,价格坚挺 | 5 | | 锌:区间运行 | 7 | | 铅:中期偏强 | 8 | | 锡:宏观环境带动上行 | 9 | | 镍:矿端支撑有所松动,冶炼端限制上方弹性 | 11 | | 不锈钢:库存边际小幅去化,钢价修复但弹性有限 | 11 | | 碳酸锂:治理内卷式竞争主要影响下游汽车行业需求,关注宏观情绪扰动放大波动率 | 13 | | 工业硅:短期情绪扰动,关注上方空间 | 15 | | 多晶硅:盘面预计冲高回落 | 15 | | 铁矿石:预期反复,宽幅震荡 | 17 | | 螺纹钢:宏观情绪提振,偏强震荡 | 18 | | 热轧卷板:宏观情绪提振,偏强震荡 | 18 | | 硅铁:宏观情绪提振,震荡偏强 | 20 | | 锰硅:宏观情绪提振,震荡偏强 | 20 | | 焦炭:反内卷信号发酵,震荡偏强 | 22 | | 焦煤:反内卷信号发酵,震荡偏强 | 22 | | 动力煤:日耗修复,震荡企稳 | 24 | | 原木:主力切换,宽 ...
五矿期货贵金属日报-20250703
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-07-03 01:34
贵金属日报 2025-07-03 贵金属 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号:F03112694 交易咨询号:Z0022090 电话:0755-23375141 邮箱: zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 沪金涨 0.26 %,报 779.66 元/克,沪银涨 0.71 %,报 8845.00 元/千克;COMEX 金涨 0.07 %, 报 3362.20 美元/盎司,COMEX 银涨 0.12 %,报 36.77 美元/盎司; 美国 10 年期国债收益率 报 4.3%,美元指数报 96.74 ; 市场展望: 昨日公布的美国 ADP 就业数据显著偏弱,进一步加强市场对于联储宽松的货币政策预期,对 贵金属价格形成利多因素。 美国 6 月 ADP 就业人数减少 3.3 万人,大幅低于预期的新增 9.5 万人以及前值的新增 2.9 万人。 鲍威尔在欧洲央行活动中强调联储决策的数据依赖性,而昨夜的 ADP 就业数据则体现了美国劳 动力市场的弱化。当前需重点关注今夜将公布的美国 6 月非农就业人口变动数,市场预期 6 月 新增非农就业人口数为 11 万人,低于前值的 13.9 万人。若非农数据再度低于预期,则市场的 ...
大型科技股反弹,标普500指数创新高
新华网财经· 2025-07-03 01:29
美东时间7月2日,美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一,道指跌0.02%; 标普500指数涨0.47%,创历史新高; 纳指涨0.94%,创收盘历史新高 。 当地时间7月2日,美国公布6月ADP报告(由美国自动数据处理公司发布的就业数据报告,通常被视为 非农就业数据的先行指标,被称为"小非农")。私营部门就业人数6月减少3.3万人,创2023年3月以来 最大降幅,而预估为增加9.8万人。 | 新版 成分 | 资讯 | 相关基金 | | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 ◆ | | 特斯拉(TESLA) | 315.650 | 4.97% | | TSLA.O | | | | 英伟达(NVIDIA) | 157.250 | 2.58% | | NVDA.O | | | | 苹果(APPLE) | 212.440 | 2.22% | | AAPL.O | | | | 谷歌(ALPHABET)· | 179.760 | 1.61% | | GOOG.O | | | | 微软(MICROSOFT | 491.090 | -0.20% | | MSFT.O | | | | 亚马逊(AMAZON) | ...
宝城期货贵金属有色早报-20250703
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-03 01:28
宝城期货贵金属有色早报(2025 年 7 月 3 日) ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明:短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2508 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 | 降息预期和关税预期升温,利好 金价 | | 铜 | 2508 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 短线看强 | 宏观风险偏好回升,铜价上行 | 说明: 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格,无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格,当日日盘收盘价为终点价格, 计算涨跌幅度。 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌,跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱,涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强,涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点,短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种:黄金(AU) 日内观点:震荡偏强 中期观点:震荡 参考观点:观望 核心逻辑:近期金价维持强势运行,海外金价拉升至 3350 美元一线,国内 ...
广发早知道:汇总版-20250703
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-07-03 01:23
金融衍生品: 金融期货: 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属: 黄金、白银 集运欧线 广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话:020-88830760 E-Mail:zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录: 商品期货: 有色金属: 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂 黑色金属: 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭 农产品: 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工: 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品: 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 7 月 3 日星期四 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息: 张晓珍(投资咨询资格:Z0003135) 电话:020- 88818009 邮箱:zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂(投资咨询资格:Z0016336) 电话:020-88818026 邮箱:qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁(投资咨询资格:Z0016628) 电话:020- 88818017 邮箱:yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波(投资咨询资 ...
美国6月ADP就业人数减少:申万期货早间评论-20250703
申银万国期货研究· 2025-07-03 00:29
首席点评: 纵深推进全国统一大市场建设 铜: 夜盘铜价收涨。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价,考验冶炼产量。根据国家统计局数据来 看,国内下游需求总体稳定向好,电力行业延续正增长;汽车产销正增长;家电产量增速趋缓;地产持 续疲弱。多空因素交织,铜价可能区间波动。关注美国关税进展,以及美元、铜冶炼和家电产量等因素 变化。 美国 6 月 ADP 就业人数意外减少 3.3 万人,自 2023 年 3 月以来首次负增长,预期为增长 9.8 万人, 5 月份数据在向下修正后仅增加 2.9 万人。服务业就业在 6 月份减少 6.6 万个就业岗位,遭遇自疫情以来 的最大降幅。美国利率期货完全消化美联储 9 月降息预期。证监会党委召开扩大会议强调,要持续优化 股债融资、并购重组等资本市场机制安排,促进要素向最有潜力的领域高效集聚。牢记我国资本市场中 小投资者众多的最大市情,不断完善投资者保护制度体系。深入推进以"两创板"改革为抓手的新一轮全 面深化资本市场改革。全力抓好资本市场自主开放重点举措落地。始终把维护市场稳定作为监管工作首 要任务,推动健全常态化稳市机制安排,平稳有序防控债券违约、私募基金等领域风险。央行近日发文 明 ...
【环球财经】美国6月ADP数据弱于预期提振纽约金价2日续涨0.56%
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-07-02 23:58
美国最新ADP就业数据意外疲软提振市场降息预期,在此背景下,7月2日国际金价再度震荡攀高。 与此同时,长期支撑黄金的因素未改,仍使得机构继续看好年内金价走势。 世界银行经济学家团队发布展望称,贵金属价格在2025至2026年将维持高位运行。黄金上半年已上涨 25%,预计全年涨幅达35%,地缘紧张与央行购金是主要驱动力。即使2026年不确定性缓解,金价仍将 较2015-19年均值高150%。 当天纽约市场成交最活跃的9月白银期货上涨54.5美分,报每盎司36.790美元,涨幅为1.50%。 (文章来源:新华财经) 当天纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2025年8月黄金期价收盘上涨18.8美元,收于每盎司 3368.70美元,涨幅为0.56%。 周三晚间公布的数据显示,美国私人企业6月份减少了3.3万个就业岗位,这一数字不仅远远低于市场预 期的9.5万人增长,而且也是自2023年3月以来的最大降幅。这一数据也凸显了美国就业市场的隐忧。 随着市场愈发关注美联储在就业和通胀方面的双重目标,在通胀压力放缓的背景下,市场分析认为,美 国就业市场转弱,无疑将强化对美联储尽早开启降息的押注,这令贵金属市场在短期内获益。 ...