Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The copper market is experiencing a decrease in prices, with LME copper down 1.65% to $12,855.0 per ton and Shanghai copper down 3.45% to ¥100,100 per ton. Supply-side indicators show an increase in copper inventory and a decrease in processing fees, while demand remains stable due to ongoing orders from major clients [1][14] - The aluminum market has seen LME aluminum prices drop by 3.49% to $3,026.00 per ton, with domestic aluminum rod inventory increasing. The overall operating rate for aluminum processing has decreased, indicating a mixed demand scenario [2][15] - Gold prices have risen by 6.57% to $4,988.6 per ounce, driven by geopolitical risks and changes in U.S. Treasury yields. The market is showing strong volatility, influenced by expectations of interest rate cuts and inflation concerns [3][16] - The rare earth sector is witnessing price increases, particularly in praseodymium and neodymium, with exports showing signs of recovery. The report suggests a positive outlook for demand and pricing in this sector [4][35] - Tungsten prices have increased significantly, supported by tight supply conditions and strategic stockpiling initiatives in the U.S. The report indicates a bullish outlook for tungsten prices [4][38] - Lithium prices have decreased, with carbonate lithium averaging ¥148,000 per ton, reflecting a decline in production and market adjustments. The report notes a potential turning point in the lithium market [4][52] - Cobalt prices have decreased by 5.6% to ¥420,000 per ton, with market conditions remaining stable but facing supply concerns. The report anticipates upward pressure on prices in the long term due to structural shortages [5][53] Summary by Sections Copper - LME copper price decreased by 1.65% to $12,855.0 per ton, with an increase in domestic inventory and a decrease in processing fees. The operating rate for copper processing is expected to decline as the industry approaches the Chinese New Year [1][14] Aluminum - LME aluminum price fell by 3.49% to $3,026.00 per ton, with an increase in aluminum rod inventory. The overall operating rate for aluminum processing decreased, indicating a mixed demand scenario [2][15] Precious Metals - Gold price increased by 6.57% to $4,988.6 per ounce, influenced by geopolitical risks and changes in U.S. Treasury yields. The market is experiencing strong volatility [3][16] Rare Earths - Prices for praseodymium and neodymium increased, with exports showing signs of recovery. The report suggests a positive outlook for demand and pricing in this sector [4][35] Tungsten - Tungsten prices increased significantly, supported by tight supply conditions and strategic stockpiling initiatives in the U.S. The report indicates a bullish outlook for tungsten prices [4][38] Lithium - Lithium prices decreased, with carbonate lithium averaging ¥148,000 per ton. The report notes a potential turning point in the lithium market [4][52] Cobalt - Cobalt prices decreased by 5.6% to ¥420,000 per ton, with market conditions remaining stable but facing supply concerns. The report anticipates upward pressure on prices in the long term [5][53]

科技股反弹能否持续？ 6日美股迎来久违反弹，道指突破50000点历史关口。然而这背后板块轮动加剧，道指年内涨幅大幅跑赢纳指和标 普500指数，多家软件企业受利空冲击，市场担忧人工智能技术会加剧行业竞争、挤压企业利润，同时投资者也对 人工智能相关股票估值高企的问题感到焦虑。 未来一周，市场将迎来多项重磅数据，可能对风险偏好产生影响，权重科技股反弹能否持续悬念重重。 美联储内部继续分裂 本周公布的经济数据较少，对美联储政策预期的改变影响相对有限。 劳动力市场方面，多项信号显示美国劳动力市场走弱——ADP就业报告显示新增就业人数惨淡，职位空缺数降至 五年最低；职场咨询公司Challenger Gray & Christmas最新发布的《挑战者裁员报告》显示，1月美企宣布的裁员数 创下2009年以来新高，即便近期一直保持低位的周度首次申领失业金人数，也触及两个月高点。 不过市场也迎来积极信号：标普全球制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）显示，美国工厂产出录得2022年以来的最强 表现。密歇根大学的初步调查结果显示，美国本月消费者信心指数升至去年8月以来的最高水平。然而密歇根大学 消费者调查主管乔安妮·许表示："高物价导致个 ...

美元指数承压提供额外助力。部分美元抛售现象出现，削弱美元对黄金的压制。美联储政策预期继续支 撑金价：CME FedWatch工具显示，交易员定价2026年内至少两次25基点降息概率较高。本周美国劳动 力市场数据疲软加剧这一预期——ADP私营部门1月新增就业仅2.2万，远低于前值3.7万(修正后)和预期 4.8万；JOLTS职位空缺降至654.2万(前值692.8万修正)；初请失业金人数升至23.1万，高于前值20.9万和 预期21.2万。这些数据强化经济放缓担忧，推动降息预期升温，有利于无息黄金。 【技术分析】 从技术面来看，4月黄金期货上周日线图形成看空"关键反转"形态，或预示阶段性顶部。但今日强势反 弹已突破前期高点，多头力量重新占据上风。多头下一目标为站稳5250.00美元关键阻力位上方并收盘 其上；空头下行目标为跌破本周低点4423.20美元关键支撑。黄金期货第一阻力位5000.00美元（已接近 或突破），第二阻力位周四高点5045.00美元；第一支撑位4800.00美元，第二支撑位隔夜低点4670.00美 元。 【要闻速递】 避险情绪回升是当前金价的主要支撑力量。全球股市延续抛售，尤其是科技股暴跌加 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the long term, precious metals are expected to continue an upward trend as the economic system restructuring drives currency system restructuring. However, in the medium term, with the easing of risk aversion and low interest - rate cut expectations, precious metals may continue to oscillate and build a bottom. The gold - silver ratio may rebound in the medium term and is expected to return to a downward trend in the long term [6][69]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Recent Market Review - During the current bull market, the Fed has been cautious about interest - rate cuts, while the market has shown obvious over - anticipation. Gold's performance is significantly affected by the risk - aversion logic, and it faces greater short - term correction pressure when risk aversion eases. Silver had higher volatility than gold in previous bull markets but has had a lower average increase in recent years due to the drag of its industrial attributes. Since the second half of 2025, silver has rapidly made up for the increase, but there is a risk that the demand may be disproven after the price rises. Platinum and palladium have started to make up for the increase since 2025. After the domestic futures were launched, platinum quickly corrected after breaking through the previous high, and palladium is still far from its previous high, with the platinum - palladium ratio remaining at a low level [5][9][10]. 3.2 Investment Logic Evolution - The monetary policies of global central banks have been highly differentiated in recent years. In the process of "de - dollarization", non - US currencies have a significant impact on precious metals, and the difference in interest - rate cut expectations between them and the US is particularly crucial. The Fed has more room for interest - rate cuts in the later stage. The market currently expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in March and April, with the next possible rate cut in June, and the remaining rate - cut space is about 50 basis points, indicating that rate cuts will end this year [6][19][23]. - Inflation in major economies has been generally mild recently, and the inflation pressure from the trade war has not emerged. The US economic growth has slowed down but remains strong overall, while non - US economies are showing an upward trend from the bottom. The IMF has raised its forecast for the global economic growth rate in 2026 to 3.3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the October forecast. It also expects the US economic growth rate to be 2.4% in 2026, higher than the 2.1% forecast in October, and has raised China's growth forecast to 4.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the October forecast [6][28][34]. - The expected high deficits and increased supply of government bonds in major economies have led to rising yields, and the global debt problem is expected to continue to support the risk pricing of precious metals [6][37]. 3.3 Precious Metals Future Trend Outlook - In the long run, as an ultra - sovereign currency, precious metals may continue to move upward as the path of least resistance due to economic and currency system restructuring. In the process of "de - dollarization", the share of the US dollar in the global central bank's foreign exchange reserves and international payments has decreased, while the share of gold has increased significantly. However, the US dollar still holds a dominant position, and "de - dollarization" is a long - term process [40][42]. - The inversion of the 3 - month to 10 - year US Treasury yield spread, which the Fed is concerned about, has continued to decline recently, reducing the risk of a US economic recession. The US - Europe interest - rate spread has been oscillating at a high level, and the US - China interest - rate spread has significantly declined. The real yield of US Treasury bonds has rebounded after encountering resistance in its downward movement, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold. The US dollar index is in a downward trend in the large cycle, but the support near the lower break is still strong [43][47]. - In terms of the risk - aversion attribute of precious metals, the S&P 500 volatility index is in an ultra - low range in recent years and has shown recent fluctuations. The uncertainty of US economic policies has declined after Trump took office [48]. - In terms of the capital side, the net long positions of gold and silver in CFTC positions have recently declined from high levels this year. SPDR Gold ETF and iShare Silver ETF have shown a trend of increasing positions recently after continuous position reductions since 2021. The net long positions of platinum in CFTC positions have declined from high levels, and the net long positions of palladium have continuously decreased from high levels. The net long positions of Shanghai gold futures companies have recently increased rapidly, while the net positions of Shanghai silver have declined at a low level [51][54][57]. - The global gold supply is expected to be stable. The demand for gold jewelry is less affected by high gold prices, and there is still potential for private and central - bank investment demand. The World Silver Association states that due to a 1% decrease in demand and a 2% increase in total supply, the global silver supply - demand gap is expected to narrow by 21% to about 3,658 tons in 2025. Platinum mining is highly concentrated, and production growth is limited. Driven by diversified applications, there is a long - term strong expectation for the demand for platinum - based catalysts in the hydrogen - energy industry. Palladium is expected to face a structural surplus in the long term due to the decline in demand from the fuel - vehicle market [63][65][67].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - This week, a series of macro - events led by the Wash nomination triggered a significant shock in the market, causing the global precious metals market to experience an accelerated correction. In the short - term, market volatility may remain high, but geopolitical uncertainties provide bottom support for gold prices. In the medium - to - long - term, as market sentiment stabilizes, the precious metals market may return to a pricing framework dominated by macro and fundamentals. With the cooling of inflation and employment data, there may be a mid - term easing expectation, and the logic of bottom - fishing in the precious metals market still holds, but it is recommended to wait and see due to short - term high volatility [6]. - The actual impact of Wash's election as the Fed Chairman on the interest - rate policy path may be relatively limited. If the cooling trend of inflation and employment data continues, the new Fed Chairman may adjust the interest - rate path and implement moderate interest - rate cuts. The support of medium - term easing expectations makes the logic of bottom - fishing in the precious metals market still valid, but short - term market fluctuations are intense, so it is advisable to wait and see. Pay attention to the support levels of London gold at $4400 - 4500 per ounce and London silver at $55 - 60 per ounce [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: Macro - events led to market shocks and a correction in the precious metals market. The cooling of the US employment market increased the expectation of interest - rate cuts. Profit - taking and market liquidity tightening increased the selling pressure on precious metals. The cancellation of the Iran - US negotiation provided bottom support for gold prices. The increase in margin requirements for gold and silver futures may intensify short - term market fluctuations [6]. - **Market Outlook**: In the medium - to - long - term, the precious metals market may return to a macro - and fundamental - driven pricing framework. With the support of medium - term easing expectations, the logic of bottom - fishing still holds, but short - term high volatility suggests a wait - and - see approach. Focus on the support levels of London gold and silver [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **ETF Holdings**: This week, the net position of gold ETFs decreased slightly, while that of silver ETFs increased [10]. - **COMEX Net Long Positions**: As of January 27, 2025, the net long positions of both COMEX gold and silver decreased [15][20]. - **Basis**: This week, the basis of gold and silver weakened week - on - week [21][25]. - **Domestic - Foreign Price Difference**: This week, the domestic - foreign price difference of gold and silver continued to converge [26][28]. - **Inventory**: This week, the inventory of gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, while the inventory of silver continued to decline significantly [29][31]. - **Gold - Silver Ratio**: This week, the gold - silver ratio continued to rebound [32][35]. 3. Industry Supply and Demand - **Silver Industry**: As of December 2025, the import of silver and silver ore increased significantly. The output of semiconductor integrated circuits increased due to the growth of silver demand in the semiconductor industry [37][41][43]. - **Gold Supply and Demand**: In 2025, the investment demand for gold ETFs increased significantly, and central banks of emerging countries continued to buy gold. The total global gold demand reached a record high [45][47]. - **Silver Supply and Demand**: In 2025, the improvement in silver supply - demand was due to the recovery of mine production and a slight increase in recycled silver. Investment and industrial demand decreased slightly, narrowing the market shortage [48][50]. 4. Macro and Options - **Macro Data**: This week, the US dollar index strengthened, and the real yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond rose by nearly 2%. The 10Y - 2Y Treasury bond yield spread widened, the CBOE gold volatility declined, and the ratio of the S&P 500 to the London gold price increased significantly. Central banks of emerging countries continued to buy gold, providing long - term structural support for gold prices [51][56][60].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the platinum and palladium markets weakened significantly due to the continuous rebound of the US dollar index, the shift in macro - expectations driven by the nomination event of Fed's Waller, and the concentrated release of long - position profit - taking in the precious metals market. The platinum main 2606 contract fell 19.75% to 506 yuan/gram, and the palladium main 2606 contract fell 11.54% to 410.50 yuan/gram [7]. - US macro data such as ISM services PMI and ADP employment data were slightly below market expectations, and the domestic lay - off level remained at a historical high. The labor market's cooling trend continued, strengthening the mid - term interest rate cut expectation. Although the Waller nomination event caused a shock in the precious metals market and was interpreted as hawkish, there is still an expectation of an interest rate cut this year, which may potentially support the precious metals market in the medium term [7]. - The EU postponed the 2035 internal combustion engine ban at the end of last year and strengthened vehicle exhaust emission standards, increasing the platinum loading intensity. Although global passenger car sales are slightly adjusted downwards due to recession concerns, the increasing penetration rate of hybrid and hydrogen fuel - cell commercial vehicles may improve the medium - to - long - term demand curve for platinum [7]. - In the short term, the high - volatility market of precious metals may continue, and the platinum and palladium markets may show a wide - range shock pattern affected by the price fluctuations of gold and silver. The support level range for London platinum is 1,800 - 1,900 US dollars/ounce, and for London palladium is 1,500 - 1,600 US dollars/ounce [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - Platinum and palladium markets weakened significantly this week, with the platinum main 2606 contract down 19.75% to 506 yuan/gram and the palladium main 2606 contract down 11.54% to 410.50 yuan/gram [7]. - US macro data supported mid - term interest rate cut expectations, and although the Waller event was hawkish - interpreted, there is still an interest rate cut expectation this year, potentially supporting the precious metals market [7]. - EU policies and the development of new - energy commercial vehicles may improve the medium - to - long - term demand for platinum [7]. - Short - term high - volatility in the precious metals market may continue, and platinum and palladium will likely show a wide - range shock pattern [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - The precious metals market had a deep correction this week. Platinum and palladium futures prices on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange dropped significantly. As of February 6, 2026, the palladium main 2606 contract was at 410.50 yuan/gram, down 11.54% for the week, and the platinum main 2606 contract was at 506 yuan/gram, down 19.75% for the week [8][12]. - The net long positions of NYMEX platinum and palladium continued to diverge. As of January 27, 2026, the net long position of NYMEX platinum was 22,026 contracts, a 1.12% increase, and that of palladium was - 2,840 contracts, a 2.82% decrease [13][16]. - The basis of NYMEX platinum and palladium main contracts strengthened this week. As of February 5, 2026, the NYMEX platinum basis was - 56 US dollars/ounce, and the palladium basis was 124 US dollars/ounce [17][21]. - NYMEX platinum inventory increased slightly, and palladium inventory decreased significantly. As of February 5, 2026, platinum inventory was 662,618.73 ounces, a 1.14% increase, and palladium inventory was 190,873.50 ounces, a 14.80% decrease [22][25]. - Platinum and gold prices showed high synchronicity, with more significant platinum price fluctuations, and the gold - platinum ratio rebounded this week [26]. 3.3 Industry Supply and Demand Situation - As of December 2025, the import and export volumes of platinum and palladium both increased [31]. - The demand for platinum in automobile exhaust catalysts decreased marginally, and the total demand for global platinum and palladium showed a mild slowdown [36][40]. - Due to geopolitical conflicts and power supply disturbances, the global supply of platinum and palladium declined [45]. - The price difference between domestic and foreign platinum and palladium converged [49]. 3.4 Macro and Options (Macro Data) - This week, the US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury yield rebounded [53].

Group 1 - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under scrutiny due to political pressures from the Trump administration regarding monetary policy and signs of a cooling labor market [1][2] - Kevin Warsh has been nominated as a potential candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, leading to political tensions and market speculation about interest rate cuts [1][2] - The market is pricing in potential interest rate cuts around mid-year, with expectations for two to three adjustments throughout the year [2][3] Group 2 - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of weakness, with initial jobless claims exceeding expectations and job vacancies dropping to their lowest levels since 2020 [3][4] - The yield curve for U.S. Treasury bonds is steepening, indicating that the market is preparing for potential rate cuts, with investors anticipating the Federal Reserve may act as early as June [3][4] - Political signals regarding Federal Reserve intervention are creating uncertainty, while economic data reflects a trend towards weakening employment and demand, complicating market assessments of future rate cuts [4]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar reached a two-week high but remained stable as investors overlooked weak US employment data [1] Group 1: Employment Data - The US Labor Department reported that job openings in December fell to the lowest level in over five years [1] - The upcoming non-farm payroll data, which was delayed due to a recent government shutdown, is a key focus for the market [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Dollar Strength - President Trump nominated Kevin Walsh to chair the Federal Reserve, boosting the dollar as the market bets on his restrictive policy stance and commitment to central bank independence [1] - Data from the London Stock Exchange Group indicates that the market does not fully anticipate another rate cut before June [1] Group 3: Market Indicators - The DXY dollar index remained flat at 97.819 [1]

期货市场交易指引 2026 年 02 月 06 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 短线交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 逢低做多 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： 观望 | | | ◆铝： | 建议加强观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 区间震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡调整 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡运行 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 反弹滚动空机会 | | ◆鸡蛋： | ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury yield curve has reached its steepest level in nearly four years, influenced by rising expectations for interest rate cuts, concerns about inflation persistence, and fiscal deficit pressures [1]. Group 1 - The yield spread between the 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds has widened to 73.7 basis points, nearing the high of 73.8 basis points reached in April 2025 [1]. - This yield spread is the highest level observed since January 2022 [1].