Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views - Geopolitical risks are driving up oil prices, but short - term upside is limited due to supply surplus and the lack of confirmed conflicts. Precious metals remain bullish, and various commodities and financial products show different trends affected by factors such as supply - demand, policies, and geopolitical situations. [2][3] Summary by Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: US December CPI data boosts market expectations for a rate cut in April. API shows a significant weekly inventory build. Geopolitical tensions in Iran drive up oil prices, but short - term upside is limited due to supply surplus in Q1 2026. [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil follows crude oil price movements. High - sulfur fuel oil may see increased demand as a substitute for asphalt if Venezuelan heavy - oil supply is disrupted. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is expected to increase, with a weakening fundamental outlook. [22] - **Asphalt**: Iranian geopolitical tensions lead to a rebound in crude oil prices, but asphalt's price increase is limited. Attention should be paid to the arrival of Venezuelan crude oil. [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: US December CPI data and Iranian tensions make precious metals bullish. [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: LME copper shows signs that support domestic refined copper exports. Chile raises its copper production target. [4] - **Aluminum**:沪铝 tests historical highs, but the break - through is unconfirmed. High profits prompt aluminum plants to consider selling - hedging. [5] - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rise, but high prices may have a negative impact on downstream consumption. [8] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**:沪镍 falls, while stainless - steel market activity is high. Inventory changes show different trends for pure nickel, nickel - iron, and stainless steel. [10] - **Tin**:沪锡 trading is driven by increased funds. Indonesian tin exports are significant, and option trading amplifies price fluctuations. [11] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The market is active. Upstream sales strategies change, and demand remains strong. Inventory changes vary among different sectors. [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: It has a weak supply - demand situation. Reduced production in the north is not enough to offset weak demand from downstream industries. [13] - **Polysilicon**: Prices continue to decline. The market trading logic has changed, and caution is advised. [14] Steel - **Iron Ore**: The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is weak. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. [16] - **Coke & Coking Coal**: Both are expected to have a bullish - oscillating trend. Carbon element supply is abundant, and downstream iron - water production may bottom - out and rebound. [17][18] - **Silicon Manganese & Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Both suggest a strategy of buying on dips. They are affected by factors such as raw material prices, inventory, and demand from the iron - making industry. [19][20] - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: Steel prices are in a range - bound pattern. Demand is weak, and supply is gradually recovering. [15] Chemicals - **Urea**: The market is in a stalemate. Production increases, and downstream demand shows mixed trends. Short - term prices may decline slightly, but the downward space is limited. [24] - **Methanol**: Geopolitical factors cause significant price fluctuations. Overseas supply is low, but domestic demand is weakening, and the driving force for price increases is weakening. [25] - **Pure Benzene**: Cost - driven short - term price increases, but the fundamental situation is weak, and long - term de - stocking is difficult. [26] - **Styrene**: Cost - support is strengthened, and the supply - demand is in a tight balance. [27] - **Polypropylene, Plastic, & Propylene**: Rising oil prices are beneficial to the market. Supply and demand show different trends for each product. [28] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC may strengthen in the long - term with potential de - capacity. Caustic soda is in a weak state, and the profit of chlor - alkali integration may be compressed. [29] - **PX & PTA**: Geopolitical risks drive up prices, but downstream demand is weakening. [30] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is expected to increase domestically and decrease overseas. Short - term attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations, and the long - term outlook is still under pressure. [31] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Demand for both is weakening in the short - term. Cost is the main driving factor, and long - term over - capacity is a pressure. [32] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The USDA report is bearish. South American weather and US soybean exports are important factors to watch. [36] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The market is affected by bio - diesel expectations and supply - side factors. It is expected to be range - bound. [37] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The US Department of Agriculture report indicates a loose supply - demand situation. The market is affected by Sino - Canadian relations and inventory levels. [38] - **Soybean No. 1**: Domestic soybean prices are回调. Supply is tight at the grassroots level, but demand is cautious. [39] - **Corn**: The US corn harvest is large, and the domestic market is affected by supply and demand factors. It is expected to fluctuate widely. [40] - **Livestock & Poultry Products** - **Pig**: The futures market is oscillating. Short - term supply pressure is high, and long - term prices may form a double - bottom pattern. [41] - **Egg**: Egg prices are expected to strengthen in the first half of 2026 due to reduced supply and increased demand. [42] - **Cotton**: The US cotton report is bullish, but the domestic market is in the off - season. Demand is stable, and the planting area policy in Xinjiang is uncertain. [43] - **Sugar**: International sugar production shows different trends in different countries. Domestic sugar production in Guangxi is expected to increase, and the rebound of Zhengzhou sugar is limited. [44] - **Apple**: Apple futures prices rise. The market focus shifts to demand, and the high - quality fruit supply is tight. [45] - **Wood & Pulp** - **Wood**: Wood prices are at a low level. Supply is expected to decrease, and demand is in the off - season. Low inventory provides some support. [46] - **Pulp**: Pulp prices are stable. Downstream demand is weak, and inventory is increasing. [47] Financial Products - **Stock Index**: A - share markets are expected to be range - bound and strong. Geopolitical situations need to be closely monitored. [48] - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury bond futures show a bullish - flattening trend. The strategy of flattening the yield curve is recommended. [49] Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Route)**: Maersk's price cuts indicate a weakening market. The 04 - contract valuation lacks a clear anchor, and far - month contracts are under pressure due to the expected resumption of Red Sea shipping. [21]

美国劳工部发布的2025年12月消费者价格指数（CPI）数据意外"爆冷"，核心CPI环比增速低于市场普遍预期，打破了此前对通胀反弹的 担忧，直接推动市场对美联储的降息预期升温。尽管整体通胀同比增速与前一月持平，但核心通胀的温和表现让市场重新评估美联储的 政策路径，叠加美联储内部本就存在的政策分歧，全球金融市场随之出现短期波动，后续降息节奏的不确定性仍未消散。 数据公布后，金融市场迅速做出反应，降息预期升温的信号显著。美股三大指数盘前直线拉升，但随后涨幅回落，最终道琼斯工业平均 指数下跌0.8%，纳斯达克综指微跌0.1%，标普500指数下跌0.19%。债券市场方面，美债收益率短期下行后趋于平稳，2年期美债收益率 小幅回落2个基点至3.53%，10年期美债收益率短暂下行后持平于4.17%。贵金属市场延续强势，现货白银首次站上88美元/盎司，年内累 计涨幅超23%；美元指数则收复前一日跌幅，推动美元兑日元汇率突破159。 市场对降息预期的定价明显调整，据CME"美联储观察"工具数据，交易员对4月降息的概率预期从数据公布前的38%升至42%，尽管6月 仍被视为最可能的首次降息时间，但降息节奏前移的预期已显现。当前市场 ...

Group 1: Copper Market - The main copper futures in Shanghai closed at 103,540 yuan, while London copper slightly retreated to 13,142 USD [3][13] - The core CPI in the US for December 2025 was 2.6%, lower than expected, leading to a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, which limits expectations for interest rate cuts [4][14] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange saw an increase in copper warehouse receipts by 5,505 tons to 122,100 tons, while LME copper inventories rose by 4,325 tons to 141,500 tons [4][14] - Chile's copper exports to China in December 2025 were approximately 751,000 tons, showing a month-on-month improvement but still relatively low [4][14] - Market sentiment is currently warm, supported by strong fundamentals and pre-holiday stocking, with expectations for copper prices to maintain high-level fluctuations [4][14] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel prices continue to operate at high levels due to uncertainties regarding Indonesian policies [4][14] - The Indonesian government is currently calculating the 2026 RKAB quota, aiming to match supply and demand, which has somewhat alleviated market concerns [4][14] - Nickel prices are expected to remain volatile until Indonesian policies are clarified, with the Shanghai nickel reference range set between 130,000 and 160,000 yuan per ton [4][14] Group 3: Silicon and Aluminum - The price of polysilicon remains low due to a decline in market sentiment, with global production expected to drop to around 110,000 tons in January [5][15] - The cancellation of export tax rebates for the photovoltaic downstream may temporarily benefit exports, but the impact on polysilicon demand is expected to be limited [5][15] - Aluminum prices are under pressure, with the 05 contract experiencing a significant drop and overall supply remaining excessive at around 96 million tons [5][15] - The 05 aluminum contract is expected to operate within a range of 2,500 to 2,800 yuan per ton, with a recommendation to hold short positions [5][15] Group 4: Zinc and Lead - Zinc prices showed strong fluctuations, with domestic TC prices stabilizing around 1,100 yuan, while the willingness to accept prices below 1,000 yuan is low [7][17] - The lead market is experiencing a slight recovery in supply due to adjustments in primary smelter maintenance plans, although demand remains weak [8][18] - The lead price is expected to fluctuate within a range of 16,800 to 17,800 yuan per ton, with a recommendation for range trading [8][18] Group 5: Precious Metals - The US December CPI data met expectations, leading to a slowdown in the upward momentum of precious metals, with only silver continuing to perform strongly [9][19] - Geopolitical risks remain, particularly with rising tensions between the US and Iran, and ongoing concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve [9][19] - The market is awaiting further guidance on tariffs and geopolitical developments, with current precious metal prices at high levels and significant volatility expected [9][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed up 1.01%, the main contract of Shanghai silver closed up 5.90%, the main contract of platinum closed down 3.32%, and the main contract of palladium closed down 5.22% [1] - In the short - term, the risk aversion from the trade war has subsided, while the risk of geopolitical fluctuations has increased. The weakening of the US employment and moderate inflation still support the expectation of interest rate cuts [1] - The "black swan" event that Fed Chairman Powell was deeply involved in a criminal investigation due to the headquarters renovation case directly shook the independence of monetary policy and the cornerstone of the US dollar's credit, leading to the de - anchoring of long - term inflation expectations. Geopolitical risks such as the US - Iran situation and the US arrest of Maduro have increased [1] - In December, US employment growth almost stagnated, and the decline in the unemployment rate alleviated concerns about the deterioration of the labor market. In November, the core CPI in the US increased by 2.6% year - on - year, the slowest growth rate since early 2021, lower than the market expectation of 3%. In December, the Fed cut interest rates amidst many differences, hinting at a pause in action and only one possible interest rate cut next year. Currently, the market expects the probability that the Fed will not cut interest rates in January 2026 to remain around 80%, and the next interest rate cut may be in April. The US dollar index and US bond yields are oscillating strongly [1] - Silver is supported by tight supply. The demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen energy industry is expected to be strong. The short - term demand for palladium is still resilient, but it faces long - term structural pressure from the fuel - vehicle market. The CRB commodity index is oscillating weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [1] - It is expected that precious metals will be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term, oscillate at a high level in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term [1] 3. Summary of Each Section Gold - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and strictly set stop - loss and take - profit levels [2] - Price: Comex gold active contract closed at $4608.80 per ounce, up 2.00% from the previous day and 3.34% from last week; London gold was at $4612.95 per ounce, up 2.65% from the previous day and 3.51% from last week; Shanghai gold main contract closed at 1027.18 yuan per gram, up 0.09% from the previous day and 2.21% from last week; Gold T + D closed at 1025.52 yuan per gram, up 0.33% from the previous day and 2.36% from last week [2] - Other data: The net long position of the top 10 futures companies in Shanghai gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed different changes, with the total net long position of the top 10 increasing by 34.94% [2][3] Silver - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and strictly set stop - loss and take - profit levels [4] - Price: Comex silver active contract closed at $79.79 per ounce, up 4.04% from the previous day and 10.41% from last week; London silver was at $78.14 per ounce, up 3.90% from the previous day and 5.29% from last week; Shanghai silver main contract closed at 21004.00 yuan per kilogram, up 0.28% from the previous day and 7.98% from last week; Silver T + D closed at 21048.00 yuan per kilogram, up 0.70% from the previous day and 7.97% from last week [4] - Other data: The net long position of the top 10 futures companies in Shanghai silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed different changes, with the total net long position of the top 10 increasing by 16.83% [4][5] Platinum - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and strictly set stop - loss and take - profit levels [6] - Price: NYMEX platinum active contract closed at $2272.90 per ounce, down 2.03% from the previous day but up 17.68% from last week; London platinum was at $2208.00 per ounce, unchanged from the previous day but up 15.84% from last week; Platinum main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 686.95 yuan per gram, up 4.46% from the previous day and 26.60% from last week; Platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange closed at 591.25 yuan per gram, down 2.59% from the previous day but up 15.56% from last week [7] - Other data: The net long position of the top 10 futures companies in platinum on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange showed different changes, with the total net long position of the top 10 increasing by 16.03% [7][9] Palladium - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and strictly set stop - loss and take - profit levels [10] - Price: NYMEX palladium active contract closed at $1821.00 per ounce, down 7.28% from the previous day but up 5.57% from last week; London palladium was at $1837.00 per ounce, up 10.56% from the previous day and 11.81% from last week; Palladium main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 529.05 yuan per gram, down 8.54% from the previous day but up 11.01% from last week [10] Precious Metals Fundamental Key Data - Fed: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 3.75%, the discount rate is 3.75%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.65%, and the Fed's total assets are 66245.58 billion US dollars, down 0.01% from last week [11] - US economy: GDP growth is 2.30% year - on - year and 4.30% quarter - on - quarter; CPI is 2.70% year - on - year and 0.30% month - on - month; Core CPI is 2.60% year - on - year [11] - Other data: The unemployment rate is 4.40%, down 0.10 percentage points; The geopolitical risk index is 196.96, up 51.03% from the previous day but down 28.01% from last week; The VIX index is 15.12, up 4.35% from the previous day and 1.48% from last week; The CRB commodity index is 304.04, up 0.85% from the previous day and 0.65% from last week; The offshore RMB exchange rate is 6.9733 [12][13][15] Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market expects different probabilities of interest rate ranges in different meetings from January 2026 to December 2027 [16]

美元指数在窄幅区间内徘徊，市场情绪谨慎，等待更明确的政策线索。尽管美联储当前维持利率不变， 但经济表现偏强、通胀仍具黏性，再加上围绕美联储独立性的争议发酵，使得市场对降息的押注从年初 明显向后推延，政策路径的不确定性显著上升。 美联储政策基调偏鹰，内部分歧加剧 多家大型投行近期调整预测，将首次降息时间从3月延后至年中。机构普遍认为，美联储今年的降息次 数将少于此前预期，宽松周期的启动更可能是"慢起步"。 市场定价也同步收紧，对上半年降息的预期大幅降温，年中已成为多数交易员认可的启动窗口。 美联储独立性争议升温，加剧政策不确定性 鲍威尔近日就检方调查发表声明，称相关行动是试图影响美联储决策、削弱其独立性的"借口"。该事件 引发市场波动，美元指数一度从近期高点回落。政策中立性的不确定性，使投资者对未来利率路径的判 断更加谨慎。 在去年12月完成连续第三次降息后，美联储已进入观望模式。鲍威尔强调，只有在看到通胀持续下行的 更多证据后，才会考虑进一步宽松，暗示短期内更倾向于按兵不动。 值得注意的是，12月会议出现了多年来最多的反对票，委员们在经济前景、通胀风险以及政策节奏上的 分歧明显扩大，这也让市场对未来政策走向更 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 主要逻辑，焦炭的供需格局直接受制于上游的焦煤成本、下游钢铁需求以及 宏观政策导向；焦炭综合库存已至中等偏高水平、供需整体偏弱。下游钢厂季节 性累库阶段，铁水产量继续回升，对焦炭短期需求有所提振。宏观方面国内央行 和美联储降息预期仍存。综合来看，预期焦炭短期延续反弹为主、低多思路对待。 【期现行情】 期货盘面：05 焦炭开盘 1774，收盘 1745，日内减仓 1031 手，前高 1817.5， 前低 1719；短期延续反弹为主，关注前低支撑和前高压力。 【行情分析】 焦炭库存，截至 1 月 9 日独立焦企焦炭库存环比回落 6.04%至 86.07 万吨， 钢厂焦炭库存累增 0.27%至 645.73 万吨，港口焦炭库存回升至 249.1 万吨，焦 炭综合库存增加 2.22 万吨至 980.9 万吨，为 3 个月高位，同比降逾 1%。 利润方面，全国 30 家独立焦化厂平均吨焦盈利-45 元/吨；山西准一级焦平 均盈利-30 元/吨，山东准一级焦平均盈利 17 元/吨，内蒙二级焦平均盈利-86 元/吨，河北准一级焦平均盈利 9 元/吨。 下游需求，247 家钢厂高炉开工率环增 0.37%至 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has revised its expectations for the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut from January and April to June and September, shifting the focus from the labor market to inflation as the core rationale for policy changes [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Conditions - Recent improvements in economic momentum and a decrease in unemployment have reduced the urgency for the Federal Reserve to implement emergency rate cuts to stabilize the labor market [2][7]. - The focus of policy is now on inflation, with the need to wait for the full price transmission effects of tariffs and to confirm a clear and sustainable trend of inflation returning to the 2% target before initiating a rate cut cycle [2][7]. Group 2: Market Expectations - The anticipated process of inflation slowing is expected to begin in the second quarter of 2026, leading to the adjustment of the first rate cut expectations to June and September, with each cut projected to be 25 basis points [7]. - The current market pricing of the policy rate terminal value (approximately 3.11%) is closely aligned with Morgan Stanley's economists' scenario analysis (3.22%), but the market is still underestimating downside risks [8][13]. Group 3: Risk Assessment - The market's probability distribution for various macroeconomic scenarios shows a significant underpricing of "tail risks," with only 7% allocated to mild recession scenarios, indicating a need for a more dovish pricing path [8][13]. - As time progresses, if economic or inflation data deviates from expectations, there remains potential for further downward adjustments in the market's pricing of the policy rate's lowest point, likely occurring after mid-2026 rather than in the short term [13].

2）影响因素分析: 一方面，特朗普发表关于伊朗局势的较为激进言论、令市场对美伊局势或进一步升级的担忧加剂，超险需求升温推开贵金属价格，另一方面, 同帮班，美联储主席鲍威尔遭刑事调查加剧市场对美联储独立性的担忧，同时在政治施压下市场或提前博弈降息加码预期，也对责金属价格构成利好。其次，从基本面上来 取提微微青，白银现货维持升水，现货偏紧格局不改、加上光伏出口退税政策短期或改善自银需求预期，都进一步助力报价弹性释放。综上、展望后市，短期在宏观和基本 赌《个》面支撑的双重利好下，预计贵金属价格科维持筛强运行，但在上期所、芝商所均领赛出台风控指施以利制投机亲度和贵金属市场获利了结压力仍较大等背景下、其 ■39. 以 价格波动幅度或仍会较为剧烈、建议控制仓位。后续，需继续密切关注伊朗局势进展、美联储主席鲍威尔调查和新任主席人选、特朗普夫税期决、美国2030直结果 供参考) 、美国CPI 等一系列事件。长期来看，贵金属的上涨逻辑并未逆转，策略上仍以逢低做多或卖浅虚看跌期权为主。 3）中长期现点：中长期来看，美联储仍处于宽松周期、大国博弈加剧和进全球化趋势将令全球地缘不确定性持续、美国巨额债务承美联储独立性削弱将进一步增 ...

Group 1 - The report maintains a bullish outlook on A-shares, commodities, and gold, indicating that the expected changes continue to favor risk assets as domestic fundamental concerns ease and risk evaluations decline [7][51] - A-share style and industry allocation focus on mid-cap blue chips, with small and micro-cap stocks potentially having a catch-up opportunity, highlighting sectors such as non-ferrous metals, media, defense, chemicals, and electronics [7][51] - The report emphasizes the continued strength of trends in A-shares, gold, and commodities, while noting a slight increase in medium-term uncertainty for commodities [31][51] Group 2 - Recent macroeconomic events impacting asset prices include a rise in CPI and a narrowing decline in PPI, alleviating concerns about the domestic economic downturn [19][21] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data indicates weak demand, with a drop in new jobs and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate, suggesting that the labor market remains fragile [23][26] - Adjustments to export tax rebate policies for various products, including solar energy and battery products, are expected to enhance China's competitive advantage in industries with high energy consumption and pollution [27] Group 3 - The report highlights the significant outperformance of CTA strategies, with the highest return reaching 7.45%, while other strategy categories lagged behind [14] - A-share market sentiment has shown a short-term increase, while medium-term risks remain stable, with fluctuations in various asset classes indicating changes in trading sentiment [36][40] - The report notes that the trends in non-ferrous metals and defense industries are strong, with both short-term sentiment and medium-term uncertainty rising [34][44]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stocks, with the entry of incremental funds at the beginning of the year, the financing scale has increased significantly, and the market trading volume has rapidly expanded. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. Strategically, the idea of buying on dips is recommended [4]. - For bonds, the improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market, but the sustainability of economic recovery momentum needs to be observed. The central bank's attitude of caring for funds remains, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and weak [8]. - For precious metals, if the silver price stabilizes, it will continue a new upward trend, and the driving force for the gold price remains strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff adjustment nodes and buy on dips after short - term negative factors end [10]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metal prices are expected to be volatile. For example, copper prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term; aluminum prices are expected to remain high; zinc and lead prices are expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [13][15][18]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom; iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at a relatively high level; glass and soda ash markets are generally weak; coking coal and coke prices are expected to fluctuate in a range [32][34][37]. - For energy and chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended to be treated neutrally; the valuation of heavy - quality oil products is raised; methanol has the feasibility of buying on dips; urea is recommended to take profits on rallies [55][57][59]. - For agricultural products, the short - term trend of hog prices is expected to be stable or slightly rising, and different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods; egg prices are expected to be stable or rising, and different strategies are also recommended for different contract periods [79][80][81]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products promoted a "soft landing" of the EU's anti - subsidy case on electric vehicles; Lihong No.1 completed its first sub - orbital flight test; Brain - Machine Haihe Laboratory completed the first "space brain - machine interface experiment"; prices of multiple non - ferrous and precious metal futures reached new highs [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: Different ratios are provided for IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts in different periods [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With incremental funds entering at the beginning of the year, the financing scale has increased significantly, and the market trading volume has rapidly expanded. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. Strategically, the idea of buying on dips is recommended [4]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Monday, the closing prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts changed by 0.30%, 0.07%, 0.05%, and 0.00% respectively. The Canadian Prime Minister will visit China, and the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued relevant policies on government investment funds [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 861 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Monday, with a net investment of 361 billion yuan [6][7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market, but the sustainability of economic recovery momentum needs to be observed. The central bank's attitude of caring for funds remains, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and weak [8]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold rose 1.31%, and Shanghai silver rose 7.23%. The US federal prosecutor launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, which impacted the Fed's independence [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: If the silver price stabilizes, it will continue a new upward trend, and the driving force for the gold price remains strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff adjustment nodes and buy on dips after short - term negative factors end [10]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals 3.2.1 Copper - **Market Information**: Silver prices were strong, and the domestic equity market strengthened, driving copper prices to rise. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has weakened, and short - term sentiment may cool down. The copper mine supply is in a tight pattern, and copper prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [13]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Market Information**: The general atmosphere of bulk commodities was strong, and aluminum prices fluctuated and rose. LME aluminum inventory decreased, and domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories increased [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The high - level fluctuations of precious metals and non - ferrous metals have increased, and short - term sentiment may cool down. Aluminum prices are expected to remain high [15]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose, and LME zinc also increased. Zinc ingot social inventory decreased slightly [16][17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc price has a large room for catch - up compared with copper and aluminum. It is expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [18]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index rose, and LME lead also increased. Lead ingot social inventory increased [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The lead price is approaching the upper edge of the long - term oscillation range, and it is expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [19]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded, and the prices of nickel ore and nickel iron also changed accordingly [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oversupply pressure of nickel is still large, and it is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [20][21]. 3.2.6 Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rose significantly. The supply in Myanmar is gradually recovering, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin market demand is weak, and the supply is expected to improve. It is recommended to wait and see. The price is expected to fluctuate following the market risk preference [22]. 3.2.7 Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The spot index of carbonate lithium rose, and the futures price also increased [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The "rush to export" effect has increased the demand expectation, but the rapid rise may increase the callback risk. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [23]. 3.2.8 Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index rose, and the inventory continued to accumulate [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The mine price is expected to decline, and the alumina market continues to face over - capacity. It is recommended to wait and see and consider shorting on rallies [25]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract price was stable, and the social inventory decreased [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The optimistic expectation of Indonesia's RKAB supports the price. The price is expected to remain high and volatile in the short term [27]. 3.2.10 Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy rose, and the inventory increased slightly [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost is strong, and the supply is disturbed. The price is expected to remain high in the short term [29]. 3.3 Black Building Materials 3.3.1 Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased, and the inventory of rebar increased slightly while that of hot - rolled coil decreased slightly [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom. It is necessary to pay attention to the de - stocking of hot - rolled coil and relevant policies [32]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore main contract price rose, and the port inventory continued to accumulate [33]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas iron ore shipment is in the off - season, and the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate at a relatively high level. It is necessary to pay attention to the steel mill's replenishment and iron - making rhythm [34]. 3.3.3 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass main contract price decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The soda ash main contract price increased, and the inventory increased [35][37]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see. The soda ash market is generally weak [36][37]. 3.3.4 Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke rose. The spot prices of coking coal and coke also changed [38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The commodity market sentiment is positive, but the fundamental support for the price is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate in a range [40][41]. 3.3.5 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose. The spot prices also changed [42]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future market trend is mainly affected by the overall market sentiment and cost factors. It is recommended to pay attention to manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [45]. 3.3.6 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon rose slightly, and the price of polysilicon decreased. The inventory of industrial silicon may increase, and the supply of polysilicon may be adjusted [46][48]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon is expected to face inventory pressure, and polysilicon is expected to be weak and volatile. It is necessary to pay attention to relevant policies and production plans [47][49]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals 3.4.1 Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price fluctuated and rebounded. The tire start - up rate had marginal fluctuations, and the inventory increased [51][53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overall commodity atmosphere is positive, but the rubber seasonality is weak. A neutral strategy is recommended, and short - selling can be considered if the price falls below a certain level [55]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main contract price of INE crude oil rose, and the inventories of refined oil products changed [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Latin American geopolitical situation does not have enough positive impact on the overall oil price, but the valuation of heavy - quality oil products is raised [57]. 3.4.3 Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of methanol changed, and the main contract price decreased [58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current valuation of methanol is low, and it has the feasibility of buying on dips [59]. 3.4.4 Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of urea changed slightly, and the main contract price increased [60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The import window has opened, and it is recommended to take profits on rallies [62]. 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene rose. The inventory of pure benzene increased, and the inventory of styrene decreased [63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene can be long - bought before the first quarter [64]. 3.4.6 PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic PVC market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to short on rallies [66]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ethylene glycol market needs to increase production cuts to improve the supply - demand pattern. It is necessary to beware of rebound risks [68]. 3.4.8 PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA main contract price rose, and the inventory decreased [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage. It is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities on dips [70]. 3.4.9 p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The p - xylene main contract price rose, and the inventory decreased [71][72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The p - xylene load is high, and it is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities following the crude oil price [73]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price may be supported, and it is recommended to long - buy the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [75]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP main contract price rose, and the inventory situation was complex [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year [77]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Hogs - **Market Information**: The domestic hog price was mixed, and the price may stabilize or rise slightly [79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term hog price may support the futures price, but in the medium - term, supply pressure exists. Different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods [80]. 3.5.2 Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price mostly rose, and the price is expected to be stable or rise [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term egg price may support the futures price, but in the medium - term, supply pressure exists. Different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods [82]. 3.5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The protein meal futures price fluctuated. The import cost of soybeans may have a bottom, but the fundamental situation is weak [83][84]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term due to the combination of long - and short - term factors [84]. 3.5.4 Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The oil futures price fluctuated. The palm oil inventory in Malaysia increased, and the domestic three - major oil inventories were at a relatively high level [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current fundamental situation is weak, but the long - term expectation is optimistic. The oil price may be close to the bottom [86]. 3.5.5 Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The spot price of sugar decreased slightly [87]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The international sugar price may rebound after February, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [89]. 3.5.6 Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price decreased. The cotton supply and demand situation changed [90]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cotton price may fluctuate after rising. It is recommended to wait for a callback to buy [91].