Core Viewpoint - Fitch maintains Poland's GDP growth forecast at 3.2% for 2026 and 2.9% for 2027, expecting a 25 basis point rate cut by the monetary policy committee in both years [1] Group 1: Economic Growth and Investment - The implementation of projects funded by the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) has been slow, leading to only a moderate recovery in investment activity so far [1] - RRF-funded investments are expected to have a greater impact on economic growth in 2026 [1] - Bank loan growth continues to improve, driven by the corporate sector [1] Group 2: Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation has been lower than expected, with the overall inflation rate dropping to 2.4% in November [1] - Core inflation is also gradually decreasing, reaching 3% in October [1] Group 3: Credit Ratings - Among the three major rating agencies, Moody's has the highest credit rating for Poland at "A2" [1] - Fitch and S&P have rated Poland at "A-", one level lower than Moody's [1] - In the recent fall rating adjustments, Fitch and Moody's changed Poland's rating outlook from stable to negative, while S&P maintained a stable outlook [1]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年12月17日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：美国11月非农新增就业超预期，但失业率意外升至四年高位，金价冲高 回落；美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，欧洲三大股指收盘全线下跌；美债收益率集体 下跌，10年期美债收益率跌3.12个基点报4.143%；美元指数跌0.06%报98.22，离岸 人民币对美元小幅升值报7.0361；COMEX黄金期货跌0.07%报4332.2美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货971.42，现货966.39，基差-5.03，现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：黄金期货仓单91302千克，增加3千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向 ...

金、铜布局期！20251216 摘要 2026 年碳酸锂供需拐点明确，预计储能需求增速国内约 54%，海外 58%，全球 55%，高于预期，主要受益于终端需求旺盛，企业春节加 班及超级订单频现。 铜板块被严重低估，铜价已从 1.05 万美元/吨涨至 1.2 万美元/吨，但相 关股票未充分反映利润增长，建议关注铜板块投资机会，尤其是紫金矿 业等估值处于历史低位的标的。 黄金股同样处于低估状态，目前市场给予每吨黄金仅 3 亿元净利润，远 低于实际单吨净利润至少 14 亿元的水平，存在显著的估值修复空间。 铜市场供给受限，预计 2025 年全球铜矿供给减少 25-26 万吨，2026 年减少 23 万吨，主要由于矿区停产及矿山减产，导致 2026 年前 17 大 生产厂商整体供给增速下修至 0.1%。 铜需求端，美国囤货需求增加，AI 数据中心用电量大幅增加，预计到 2028 年 AI 数据中心耗铜量达 257 万吨，占全球总需求近 10%，储能 电池需求强劲，预计 2026 年用铜量达 55 万吨。 Q&A 近期能源金属和电机板块的表现如何？未来有哪些值得关注的投资机会？ 铜市场供给方面，由于印度尼西亚格拉斯伯格 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年12月17日 (原油) 夜盘油价大幅下探，布伦特原油跌破60美元/桶。API公布数据显示美国至12月12日当周API原油库 存大幅下降932.2万桶，远超市场预期，然而该数据并未对油价构成提振。美乌柏林谈判整体进展 非常积极，在多个关键议题上已形成初步共识,并正向达成和平协议迈进。全球原油供需愈发宽松 背景下,和谈取得进展导致市场担忧达成协议后俄油供应释放进一步增大供应压力,油价承压下 行。 【贵金属】 隔夜美国公布11月非农就业人口增加6.4万人好于预期的5万人，但失业率升至4.6%创2021年9月以 来新高且10月就业减少10.5万人，此外美国12月标普全球制造业PMI、服务业PMI以及10月零售销售 均低于预期，数据验证经济降温轨迹，市场维持2026年降息两次预期。黄金偏强运行逼近历史高 点,如果实现突破则贵金属强势表现有望延续。 【铜】 隔夜内外铜价收阴震荡在MA10日均线，市场反复消化美国10月与11月非农就业相抵消后的增量，1 月降息预期概率小增至三成。市场继续等待通胀指标。国内现铜91700元，上海贴水125元，广东升 ...

COMEX黄金期货周二（12月16日）日K收涨，此前公布的一系列经济数据显示，美国经济既未呈现过 热态势，也未出现过快降温。2月交割的黄金期货盘中报4341.4美元/盎司（一般高于现货金十几美 元），上涨6.2美元。 展望后市，本周四晚将公布美国11月CPI数据，通胀表现将为降息预期提供进一步指引。此外，日本央 行会议临近，市场情绪谨慎，短期黄金大概率延续震荡走势，需关注关键数据对方向的催化作用。 【最新黄金期货行情解析】 技术面来看，2月黄金期货多头的下一个上行目标是收盘价突破关键阻力位——合约历史高点4433.00美 元/盎司。空头的近期下行目标是推动期货价格跌破关键技术支撑位4200.00美元/盎司。第一阻力位见于 今日高点4367.90美元/盎司，随后是上周高点4387.80美元/盎司；第一支撑位为隔夜低点4297.40美元/盎 司，其次是4250.00美元/盎司。 【要闻速递】 美国非农数据偏弱但分歧犹存，黄金波动加剧昨晚美国劳工部公布的数据显示，11月非农就业人口增加 6.4万人，高于市场预期的5万人，但制造业就业人数降至2022年3月以来最低;与此同时，失业率意外升 至4.6%，创2021年9月 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are expected to maintain a long - position strategy on dips, with a price range of $10,800 - $12,000 in December 2025, due to a structural supply - demand gap in 2026 and uneven global inventory distribution [1] - Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, but demand may be weak in early 2026 and then tighten with demand growth, as the easing of interest - rate cut expectations and weak terminal demand have affected the market [2] - Zinc prices are difficult to fall deeply at the end of the year due to a potential supply reduction, but the domestic fundamentals are poor. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and foreign markets, and pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity between contracts 01 - 03 [6] - Nickel's short - term fundamentals are weak with supply decline, weak demand, and continuous inventory accumulation. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities due to potential price - supporting policies in Indonesia [9] - Stainless steel's fundamentals are weak with high production, weak demand, and high inventory. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities due to potential price - supporting policies in Indonesia [12] - Lead prices are expected to oscillate between 17,000 - 17,600, with the supply - demand contradiction relieved by the resumption of secondary lead production, but there is still a risk of low - warehouse receipts [13] - Tin prices may fluctuate greatly in the short term if there is a macro - systematic correction, and there is a risk of supply over - release and downstream negative feedback. It can be a long - position allocation in the first half of 2026, but beware of correction risks [15] - Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate with costs in the short term and move in a cycle at the bottom in the long term, as the supply and demand are balanced in December 2025 and there is still high over - capacity [18] - Lithium carbonate prices are in a short - term pattern of strong supply and demand. The upper - price limit needs inventory reduction, speculative demand improvement, or stronger holding willingness [20] Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - **Price and Inventory**: Copper prices hit a new high this week and then fell. The inventory is unevenly distributed globally, and there is a supply - demand gap in 2026. Domestic inventory may accumulate slightly until the Spring Festival [1] - **Strategy**: Maintain a long - position strategy on dips, with a price range of $10,800 - $12,000 in December [1] Aluminum - **Price and Inventory**: Aluminum prices fluctuated this week, affected by interest - rate cut expectations and weak terminal demand. The inventory remained unchanged [2] - **Strategy**: Volatile and strong in the short term, but demand may be weak in early 2026 [2] Zinc - **Price and Inventory**: Zinc prices rose this week, and the LME 0 - 3M premium declined. The domestic social inventory decreased, and the overseas LME inventory increased [6] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of domestic and imported zinc concentrates is tightening, and some smelters are under maintenance. The domestic demand is seasonally weak, and the overseas demand is average [6] - **Strategy**: Wait and see on the long - short side, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and foreign markets, and pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity between contracts 01 - 03 [6] Nickel - **Price and Inventory**: Nickel prices fell this week. The supply decreased slightly, the demand was weak, and the inventory increased continuously at home and abroad [9] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities due to potential price - supporting policies in Indonesia [9] Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory**: Stainless steel prices decreased slightly this week. The production remained high, the demand was mainly for rigid needs, and the inventory remained high [12] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities due to potential price - supporting policies in Indonesia [12] Lead - **Price and Inventory**: Lead prices fell slightly this week. The supply - demand contradiction was relieved by the resumption of secondary lead production, and the downstream replenishment provided support [13] - **Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate between 17,000 - 17,600, and beware of the risk of low - warehouse receipts [13] Tin - **Price and Inventory**: Tin prices rose rapidly this week. The supply may increase marginally under high prices, and the demand was mainly for rigid needs with weak downstream orders [15] - **Strategy**: May fluctuate greatly in the short term if there is a macro - systematic correction. It can be a long - position allocation in the first half of 2026, but beware of correction risks [15] Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory**: The basis of industrial silicon decreased slightly this week, and the warehouse receipts increased [16] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply and demand are balanced in December 2025, and there is still high over - capacity [18] - **Strategy**: Oscillate with costs in the short term and move in a cycle at the bottom in the long term [18] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory**: Lithium carbonate prices rose slightly this week. The supply and demand are both strong in the short term, but the actual trading volume is light [20] - **Strategy**: The upper - price limit needs inventory reduction, speculative demand improvement, or stronger holding willingness [20]

贵金属日报 2025-12-17 贵金属 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： 【行情资讯】 沪金跌 0.14 %，报 974.22 元/克，沪银跌 0.24 %，报 14731.00 元/千克；COMEX 金报 4334.90 美元/盎司，COMEX 银报 63.81 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率报 4.15%，美元指数报 98.21 ； 昨日公布的美国关键经济数据全面低于预期，令市场交易后续联储货币政策的进一步宽松，金 银价格短线得到支撑。 美国 11 月新增非农就业人口数为 6.4 万人，高于预期的 5 万人，但十月份新增非农就业数 据则录得 10.5 万人的下跌。 从 10 月和 11 月非农就业数据来看，建筑业撑起商品生产就业，而医疗保健几乎是服务业新增 就业的唯一支撑，政府就业由于关门影响扰动较大。总体就业格局从分项来看表现疲乏，符合 鲍威尔所说的劳动力市场具备风险的情况：建筑业新增就业人口数在 11 月录得 2.8 万人，十 月份下降一千人，在九月份也出现 2.5 万人的新增，是近三个月商品生产的 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, although there is some uncertainty in the market at the end of the year, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. - For treasury bonds, the short - term bond market is expected to fluctuate under the background of weak domestic demand and institutional behavior disturbances. Attention should be paid to the repair of the supply - demand relationship at the end of the year and the rebound after over - decline, while being vigilant against redemption risks [6]. - For precious metals, the weak US non - farm payroll data boosts the expectation of interest rate cuts. It is recommended to hold long positions in gold and maintain a wait - and - see attitude towards silver [8]. - For non - ferrous metals, copper is expected to fluctuate at a high level; aluminum prices are strongly supported and may rise after adjustment; zinc may give back some gains; lead is expected to fluctuate weakly in a wide range; nickel is recommended to wait and see; tin is recommended to wait and see; lithium carbonate is expected to adjust weakly in a range; alumina is recommended to wait and see; stainless steel is recommended to wait and see; and cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate within a range [11][13][16][17][19][21][22][24][26][28]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom; iron ore prices are expected to oscillate weakly; glass is expected to oscillate narrowly; soda ash is expected to continue to decline under pressure; for manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, attention should be paid to the cost - push factors and the direction of the black sector; industrial silicon is expected to run weakly; and polysilicon should pay attention to the pressure at the 60,000 - yuan mark [31][34][36][37][40][42][45]. - For energy and chemicals, for rubber, a neutral short - term operation is recommended; for crude oil, a wait - and - see attitude is recommended; for methanol, a wait - and - see attitude is recommended; for urea, it is recommended to go long at low prices; for pure benzene and styrene, it is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year; for PVC, it is recommended to go short on rallies; for ethylene glycol, there is a risk of rebound due to unexpected maintenance; for PTA, attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on dips; for p - xylene, attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on dips; for polyethylene, it is recommended to shrink the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies; and for polypropylene, it may be supported by the change of the cost - supply pattern in the first quarter of next year [52][54][55][57][59][62][64][66][68][70][72]. - For agricultural products, for live pigs, it is recommended to short after the consumption rebound and go long on the far - end contracts; for eggs, it is recommended to short on rallies for the near - end contracts and pay attention to the upper pressure for the far - end contracts; for soybean and rapeseed meal, it is expected to oscillate; for oils and fats, short - term operation based on high - frequency data is recommended; for sugar, a short - term wait - and - see attitude is recommended; and for cotton, it is unlikely to have a unilateral trend [75][77][80][82][85][87]. Summary by Directory Stock Index - **Market Information**: The top priority for next year is to expand domestic demand, and efforts will be made to boost consumption from both supply and demand sides. Morgan Stanley predicts a copper supply gap of 260,000 tons in 2025 and 600,000 tons in 2026. The US added 64,000 non - farm jobs in November, with an unemployment rate of 4.6% [2]. - **Strategy**: Although there is uncertainty at the end of the year, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On December 16, the Ministry of Commerce imposed anti - dumping measures on imported pork and pork by - products from the EU. The National Development and Reform Commission proposed to improve the mechanism for expanding domestic demand. The central bank conducted a net injection of 18 billion yuan through reverse repurchase operations on Tuesday [5]. - **Strategy**: The short - term bond market is expected to fluctuate, with attention to supply - demand repair and rebound, and vigilance against redemption risks [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold fell 0.14% to 974.22 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver fell 0.24% to 14,731 yuan/kg. The weak US non - farm payroll data supported the prices of gold and silver in the short term [7]. - **Strategy**: Hold long positions in gold and maintain a wait - and - see attitude towards silver [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The US non - farm data affected the dollar index, and copper prices oscillated. LME copper inventory increased, and the domestic spot premium changed. The import loss of domestic copper spot narrowed [10]. - **Strategy**: Copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level, with the Shanghai copper main contract ranging from 91,200 - 93,000 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M from 11,500 - 11,800 dollars/ton [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: South32's Mozal aluminum plant will enter maintenance in March 2026, and aluminum prices oscillated upward. Global aluminum inventory continued to decline [12]. - **Strategy**: Aluminum prices are strongly supported and may rise after adjustment, with the Shanghai aluminum main contract ranging from 21,700 - 22,100 yuan/ton and LME aluminum 3M from 2,850 - 2,910 dollars/ton [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices fell. Zinc ore inventory decreased, and LME zinc inventory slowly increased. The Lun zinc had a large - scale warehouse delivery on December 16 [14][16]. - **Strategy**: Zinc may give back some gains [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices fell. Lead ore inventory was basically flat, and domestic social inventory increased slightly [17]. - **Strategy**: Lead prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in a wide range [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices were weak. Nickel ore prices were stable, and nickel iron prices fell slightly [18]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see, with the Shanghai nickel price ranging from 110,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M from 13,000 - 15,500 dollars/ton [19]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices fell. The smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi faced problems such as low processing fees and insufficient raw material supply. The demand was affected by high prices, and inventory increased [20]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see, with the domestic main contract ranging from 300,000 - 335,000 yuan/ton and overseas LME tin from 39,000 - 43,000 dollars/ton [21]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The spot index of lithium carbonate rose. The market is divided on supply release and demand fulfillment [22]. - **Strategy**: Lithium carbonate is expected to adjust weakly in a range, with the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's LC2605 contract ranging from 97,800 - 103,200 yuan/ton [22]. Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina prices rose slightly. The Guinea ore price was stable, and the inventory decreased [23]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see, with the domestic main contract AO2601 ranging from 2,400 - 2,700 yuan/ton [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices fell. The raw material prices were stable, and the social inventory decreased [25]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see as the market is in a tight - balance state and lacks a clear direction [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Cast aluminum alloy prices fell. The inventory decreased slightly, and the trading volume was low [27]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate within a range due to cost support and demand pressure [28]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices changed slightly. The rebar production decreased, and the inventory declined. The hot - rolled coil production continued to decline, and the inventory removal was difficult. Export license management will be implemented from January 1, 2026 [30][31]. - **Strategy**: Steel prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom and may gradually digest the policy impact [31]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices rose. Overseas shipments increased, and the port inventory continued to rise. The iron water output decreased [32][33]. - **Strategy**: Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate weakly [34]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices rose, and the inventory decreased. Soda ash prices rose, and the inventory decreased [35][37]. - **Strategy**: Glass is expected to oscillate narrowly, and soda ash is expected to continue to decline under pressure [36][37]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices fell. The manganese silicon supply is loose, and the ferrosilicon supply - demand is balanced [38]. - **Strategy**: The market is affected by the black sector and cost factors. Attention should be paid to the manganese ore and electricity price changes [39][40]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices rose slightly. The production decline was limited, and the demand was weak. Polysilicon prices rose. The production is expected to decline, and the inventory pressure is high [41][45]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon is expected to run weakly, and polysilicon should pay attention to the 60,000 - yuan mark [42][45]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices oscillated. The inventory was low, and there was buying demand for winter storage. There were different views on the market [47][48]. - **Strategy**: Neutral short - term operation, and hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [52]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil and refined oil prices fell. The Chinese crude oil and refined oil inventories increased [53]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see, and test the OPEC's export - price support willingness [54]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices fluctuated. The port inventory decreased, but the import is expected to be high, and the olefin plant has maintenance expectations [55]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see as the fundamentals have some pressure [55]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices rose slightly. The demand improved, and the supply is expected to decline seasonally [56][57]. - **Strategy**: Go long on urea at low prices [57]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure benzene and styrene prices changed. The non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral - low, and the inventory situation is different [58]. - **Strategy**: Go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [59]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices rose. The production was high, the demand was weak, and the cost was stable [60]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies due to strong supply and weak demand [62]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. The supply was expected to improve, but the inventory continued to rise [63]. - **Strategy**: There is a risk of rebound due to unexpected maintenance [64]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices fell. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand will decline in the off - season [65]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [66]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: PX prices fell. The production load changed, and the inventory is expected to increase slightly [67]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [68]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices fell. The upstream production decreased, the inventory was high, and the downstream demand was weak [69]. - **Strategy**: Shrink the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [70]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices rose slightly. The upstream production increased, the inventory situation was complex, and the downstream demand oscillated seasonally [71]. - **Strategy**: It may be supported by the change of the cost - supply pattern in the first quarter of next year [72]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices fluctuated slightly. Some regions had different trends in sales [74]. - **Strategy**: Short after the consumption rebound and go long on the far - end contracts [75]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were mostly stable. The supply was stable, and the demand increased slightly [76]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies for the near - end contracts and pay attention to the upper pressure for the far - end contracts [77]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: Soybean and rapeseed meal prices changed. The US soybean sales were slow, and the South American production was expected to be high. The domestic inventory was high [78][79]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to oscillate [80]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Oil prices fell. The palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia was high, and the export was poor. The soybean planting progress in Brazil was good, and the US soybean oil inventory increased [81]. - **Strategy**: Short - term operation based on high - frequency data is recommended [82]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar prices fell. The production in major producing countries is expected to increase, and the domestic import profit window is open [83][84]. - **Strategy**: A short - term wait - and - see attitude is recommended [85]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton prices fluctuated. The downstream开机率 was stable, and the global cotton production was adjusted [86]. - **Strategy**: It is unlikely to have a unilateral trend [87].

Group 1 - The core market sentiment is characterized by a loss of calculability regarding the future rather than a loss of confidence [2] - The market reactions to the non-farm payroll data were mixed, with the dollar index initially falling before recovering, gold prices spiking then declining, and S&P 500 futures showing volatility before closing lower [2][3] - The U.S. Treasury bonds experienced a comprehensive rise, with yields dropping by 2 to 3.5 basis points, indicating a preference for assets that do not require narrative justification [2] Group 2 - The overall market response was moderate, suggesting that it was not a significant trading day, with expectations of increased volatility compared to the previous day [3] - The market is currently in a state of risk avoidance, with defensive sectors like healthcare, utilities, and real estate performing poorly, while technology stocks managed to show slight gains [4] - The implications of the non-farm data are troubling for the Federal Reserve, as it disrupts the sense of direction in the market, creating uncertainty in pricing models [4]

Core Viewpoint - The significant rise in platinum prices, exceeding 90% year-to-date, is driven by a combination of fundamental supply-demand gaps and macroeconomic liquidity easing, particularly influenced by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movement and Drivers - On December 16, platinum prices reached a peak of $1834.94 per ounce, with domestic prices surpassing 400 yuan per gram [1][2]. - The price surge is attributed to two main factors: increased expectations of the Federal Reserve's reduced independence and expanded rate cut potential, alongside tightening supply in the spot market [2]. - The one-month leasing rate for platinum rose to 14.12% as of December 12, indicating a tight supply situation [1]. Group 2: Investment Insights - The World Platinum Investment Council suggests that new futures contracts offer efficient and flexible investment tools for experienced investors, while physical platinum or linked financial products are recommended for ordinary investors [1]. - Analysts maintain a long-term optimistic outlook for platinum prices, with expected trading ranges for NYMEX platinum between $1400 and $2400 per ounce, translating to approximately 370 to 630 yuan per gram domestically [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The ongoing supply shortage and liquidity easing are expected to support platinum prices in the medium to long term, despite potential short-term volatility influenced by other precious metals [3]. - The domestic platinum futures market is developing, which may enhance pricing power in China, as domestic prices have shown a premium over international prices [3].