Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive industry [1] Core Views - The automotive sector is expected to benefit from the continuation of the vehicle replacement policy, which is anticipated to support consumer demand and sales growth in 2025 [16] - The report highlights a new phase of domestic brands entering a strategic offensive towards high-end development, with companies offering quality products priced above 300,000 yuan likely to benefit significantly [16] - The report emphasizes the potential for high-level intelligent driving technologies to become more affordable, which could increase their penetration rates [16] Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The automotive sector underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly decline of 0.4% from July 7 to July 11, 2025, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.1% [17] - In June 2025, the wholesale volume of automobiles reached 2.904 million units, a year-on-year increase of 13.8% [30] Key Company Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - Li Auto, JAC Motors, Geely, SAIC Group, BYD, Great Wall Motors for high-end supply [16] - XPeng Motors, Huayang Group, Desay SV, and Coboda for intelligent driving technologies [16] - Top Group, Sanhua Intelligent Control, and Beite Technology for robotics production [16] - Fuyao Glass, Xingyu Co., and Yinlun Co. for quality auto parts [16] - Foton Motor and China National Heavy Duty Truck for commercial vehicles [16] Earnings Forecasts - Key companies and their projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025E, and 2026E include: - Yinlun Co.: 0.92, 1.28, 1.59 [49] - Baolong Technology: 1.44, 2.56, 3.22 [49] - BYD: 13.84, 18.15, 22.13 [49] - Li Auto: 4.16, 5.43, 8.33 [49]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the home appliance industry, particularly highlighting the white goods sector as undervalued with high dividend yields and stable growth potential [4][5]. Core Insights - The report identifies three main investment themes: 1. **White Goods**: The reversal of real estate policies is expected to boost the white goods sector, with a projected domestic production increase of 8% in the upcoming months. The report recommends stocks like Hisense Home Appliances, Midea, Haier, and Gree [5]. 2. **Exports**: Companies like Ousheng Electric and Dechang Co. are highlighted for their stable profit growth driven by large customer orders and recovering overseas demand [5]. 3. **Core Components**: The report emphasizes the unexpected demand for core components in the white goods sector, recommending companies such as Huaxiang Co., Shun'an Environment, and Sanhua Intelligent Control for their competitive advantages and growth prospects [5]. Summary by Sections A. Clean Appliances Data - In June 2025, online sales of sweeping machines reached 352,300 units, up 34.11% year-on-year, with sales revenue of 576 million yuan, an increase of 44.07%. The average price rose by 7.43% to 1,634.50 yuan per unit [4][31]. - For washing machines, sales were 257,400 units, up 32.43% year-on-year, with revenue of 411 million yuan, a 20.31% increase. The average price decreased by 9.15% to 1,598.10 yuan per unit [4][31]. B. Personal Care Data - In June 2025, hair dryer sales fell by 28.23% to 918,300 units, but revenue increased by 1.57% to 30.5 million yuan, with an average price rise of 41.52% to 332.0 yuan per unit [5][39]. - Electric shaver sales decreased by 1.81% to 1,140,900 units, while revenue grew by 5.76% to 25 million yuan, with an average price increase of 7.68% to 218.7 yuan per unit [5][39]. C. Industry Dynamics - The home appliance sector underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with a 0.3% decline in the home appliance index while the CSI 300 rose by 0.8% [6][7]. - The announcement of a 50% tariff on copper imports by the U.S. is expected to impact the industry, as copper is a key material for many appliances [6][13]. D. Material Prices - As of July 11, 2025, copper prices were 78,730 yuan per ton, down 1.19% year-on-year, while aluminum prices rose by 3.25% to 20,785 yuan per ton [16][20].

Group 1 - The market trend has shifted from policy-driven to fundamental and liquidity-driven since September last year, with expectations for a new upward phase in the second half of the year, potentially surpassing the peak in the second half of 2024 [4] - The U.S. is accelerating the Section 232 investigation, with a high likelihood of imposing tariffs on copper, while the feasibility of drug tariffs remains low; results are expected to be announced in the second half of the year [10] - The net profit forecast for Qiu Tai Technology has been raised by 20%/31%/40% for 2025/2026/2027, driven by the strong growth in IoT module shipments and product specification upgrades [14] Group 2 - Northern Rare Earth expects a net profit of 900 million to 960 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 1882.54% to 2014.71%, supported by rising prices and reduced processing costs [20] - Juhua Co. anticipates significant profit growth due to the ongoing high demand for refrigerants, with net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 adjusted upwards by 11%/10%/8% [24] - Miao Ke Lan Duo expects a net profit of 120 million to 145 million yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 68.1% to 103.1%, driven by strong market positioning in cheese [31] Group 3 - Tesla's global delivery volume showed a recovery in Q2 2025, while domestic new energy vehicle brands are intensifying competition, indicating potential shifts in consumer behavior [36] - China Hongqiao expects a net profit increase of approximately 35% for the first half of 2025, reaching about 12.36 billion yuan, supported by stable aluminum prices and resource availability [42] - Honglu Steel Structure reported double-digit growth in order volume and production in Q2 2025, with ongoing improvements in smart manufacturing processes enhancing competitive advantages [46]

Legal Dispute Update - Sichuan Changhong's subsidiary, Changhong Jiahua, is involved in a legal dispute with Suning, with the case amount exceeding 890 million yuan [1] - The first instance ruling ordered Suning to pay 722 million yuan in principal and 173 million yuan in funds occupation fees, with additional interest calculated based on the loan market rate [2][3] - Suning has appealed the first instance ruling, and the case is currently in the second instance stage [2][3] Financial Performance - Sichuan Changhong announced a cash dividend of 0.05 yuan per share, totaling 231 million yuan, with a payout ratio of 65.62% of the net profit for 2024 [4] - The company reported a revenue of approximately 103.7 billion yuan for 2024, a 6.4% increase year-on-year, and a net profit exceeding 700 million yuan, up 2.3% [4] - For the first half of 2025, the company expects a net profit of 439 million to 571 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 56.53% to 103.59% [4] Strategic Outlook - The company aims to enhance its competitive advantages and optimize operational efficiency in response to a complex macro environment and market competition [5]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of boosting consumption to expand domestic demand and strengthen the domestic circulation, with Shaanxi province actively implementing consumption-boosting initiatives in response to national strategies [1] Group 1: Consumption Growth Data - From January to May, Shaanxi's retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.2% year-on-year, building on last year's rapid growth, with commodity retail sales up by 6.3% and catering revenue up by 5.9% [1] - Eight cities, including Tongchuan, Baoji, and Xianyang, achieved double-digit growth in retail sales of consumer goods [1] - Specific categories such as grain and oil, tobacco and alcohol, and cultural office supplies saw year-on-year growth of 15.9%, 7.2%, and 6.3% respectively [1] Group 2: Impact of Trade-in Policies - The trade-in policy has been a significant driver of consumption upgrades, continuously releasing policy dividends and injecting momentum into economic growth [1] - In the first half of the year, the sales revenue of Shaanxi Suning increased by 40% year-on-year, with store foot traffic up by 45%, attributed to various subsidies [2] - The sales of new energy vehicles in Shaanxi saw a year-on-year increase of 18.5% in the first five months, fueled by ongoing automotive consumption subsidies [2] Group 3: Financial Support and Policy Implementation - Shaanxi secured 7.4 billion yuan in national subsidy funds to support the trade-in policy, implementing a combination of strategies including policy stacking, category expansion, service optimization, market regulation, and promotional guidance [3] - As of June 18, Shaanxi's trade-in program facilitated the exchange of 737.77 million items, with 5.845 billion yuan in funds applied for, driving a total consumption of 48.675 billion yuan, resulting in a leverage ratio of 8.33 [4] Group 4: Innovative Consumer Experiences - Shaanxi's commercial institutions are innovating shopping experiences, enhancing service offerings, and creating diverse and personalized experiences for consumers [4] - The Seg International Shopping Center in Xi'an introduced an immersive shopping experience with activities like bird performances and interactive elements, aiming to attract consumers through engaging experiences [4] - New types of shopping districts are emerging, integrating tourism and commerce to provide enhanced consumer experiences, supported by various promotional measures [5] Group 5: Future Consumption Strategies - Shaanxi plans to continue optimizing consumption policies and innovating consumption models in the second half of the year to further tap into consumption potential [5] - Collaborative efforts with local governments, cultural tourism enterprises, and financial institutions are being made to promote high-quality service consumption and organize large-scale cultural events [5]

Economic Overview - The overall economic performance in the first half of the year is stable, supported by strong external demand and improving internal demand, with GDP growth expected to exceed 5% [2][3] - The first quarter saw a GDP growth rate of 5.4%, and the positive trend continued into the second quarter [2][3] - Key drivers of economic growth include the "old-for-new" consumption policy, large-scale equipment updates, and robust infrastructure investment [3][4] Consumption and Investment - The "old-for-new" policy significantly boosted consumption, with retail sales of consumer goods growing by 5% year-on-year from January to May [4][5] - Fixed asset investment increased by 3.7% during the same period, driven by strong service sector investment and equipment upgrades [4][6] - Exports grew by 6% from January to May, supported by "grabbing exports" and "turning exports" strategies [4][6] Monetary and Fiscal Policies - Monetary policy remained flexible and moderately loose, with a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio in May, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [7][8] - Fiscal policy showed a high intensity and rapid pace, with government debt net financing increasing by 3.8 trillion yuan year-on-year from January to May [9][10] - The issuance of special bonds and ultra-long-term treasury bonds accelerated, with nearly 2.2 trillion yuan in new special bonds issued by the end of June [9][10] Future Outlook - In the second half of the year, there is still room for further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to lower financing costs for the real economy [16][20] - New policy financial tools are expected to be introduced in the third quarter, focusing on technology innovation and digital economy sectors [16][17] - The government plans to dynamically adjust budgets and expand fiscal spending to counter global trade uncertainties and support employment [17][20]

CPI Outlook for the Second Half of the Year - The core CPI has been rising since the beginning of the year, with June's core CPI at 0.7%, the highest since May 2024, driven mainly by core goods rather than services [2] - Service retail growth has slowed, with a year-on-year increase of 5.2% from January to May 2025, significantly lower than the 20% and 6.2% growth rates in 2023 and 2024 respectively [2] - The core goods CPI is expected to remain resilient in Q3, supported by the "old-for-new" policy, while facing high base pressure in Q4 [5][6] Service Prices - Service prices have shown a downward trend since 2020, with a year-on-year increase of only 0.4% expected in 2025 [8] - Tourism prices have weakened significantly, with a monthly average growth rate of -0.4% from January to June 2025, indicating a bottleneck in domestic cultural and tourism consumption recovery [9] Food Prices - Food items account for about 18% of the CPI, with pork prices being particularly volatile due to the pig cycle [13] - Pork prices are expected to remain low in Q3, with a potential slight recovery in Q4 as seasonal demand increases [14] Oil Prices - Oil-related products account for approximately 3.5% of the CPI, with Brent crude oil prices averaging $71.9 per barrel in the first half of the year, down 14.7% year-on-year [18] - Oil prices are expected to face downward pressure in the second half due to weak demand and ongoing supply pressures [19] PPI Outlook for the Second Half of the Year - The PPI has been in negative territory for 33 consecutive months, with significant price pressures across various industries [20] - Real estate investment and traditional infrastructure growth are dragging down building materials prices, contributing to a 0.9 percentage point decline in PPI [21] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to impact prices in certain industries, potentially providing some support to related commodity prices [29] Overall Economic Indicators - The forecast for PPI in the second half of the year is a slight recovery to around -2.3%, with Q3 PPI growth expected at -2.5% [30] - The GDP growth target for the second half of the year is set at 4.6%-4.7% to achieve an annual growth rate of 5.3%-5.4% [30]

Economic Indicators - As of June 2025, PPI has experienced 33 consecutive months of year-on-year negative growth, while CPI has remained below 1% for 28 months[3] - The GDP deflator index has shown negative growth for 8 consecutive quarters, with an estimated -1% for Q2 2025[3] - For Q3 and Q4 2025, CPI is projected to grow at -0.1% and 0%, while PPI is expected to decline by -2.5% and -2.1% respectively[3] GDP Growth Projections - The actual GDP growth rate for the first half of 2025 is likely to be around 5.3-5.4%, requiring a second-half growth of 4.6-4.7% to meet the annual target[3] - The nominal GDP growth rate needs to stabilize above 4% for the year[3] CPI Insights - Core CPI has shown an upward trend, reaching 0.7% year-on-year in June 2025, the highest since May 2024[5] - Service retail sales growth from January to May 2025 was 5.2%, significantly lower than the 20% and 6.2% growth rates in 2023 and 2024 respectively[5] - The contribution of service CPI to overall CPI growth was only 0.17 percentage points, much lower than the previous year's 0.9%[5] Food and Energy Price Trends - Food prices, particularly pork, are expected to face high base pressure in Q3, with a projected negative growth in pork prices due to supply chain factors[24][26] - Oil prices are anticipated to decline further, with Brent crude averaging around $66 per barrel in the second half of 2025, leading to a significant drag on CPI growth[35][36] Risks and Uncertainties - Global economic recovery may fall short of expectations, impacting domestic price levels and potentially leading to further declines in export and commodity prices[4] - The effectiveness of industrial policy adjustments and "anti-involution" measures remains uncertain, which could prolong price pressures in certain sectors[4]

Core Viewpoint - The automotive market is experiencing a slowdown in price wars, with a significant reduction in promotional activities by car manufacturers, indicating a shift in market dynamics [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - In June, the retail sales of passenger cars reached 2.084 million units, a year-on-year increase of 18.1%, marking the highest sales record for June [2]. - For the first half of the year, retail sales of passenger cars totaled 10.9 million units, growing by 10.8%, an increase of nearly two percentage points compared to the growth rate of 9% in the first five months [3]. - The strong performance in June was attributed to increased government subsidies under the "two new" policy and a rush by consumers to take advantage of expiring subsidies [3]. Group 2: Pricing and Profitability - The automotive industry is facing a "revenue growth but profit decline" scenario, with revenues of 4.1283 trillion yuan in the first five months, up 7%, while profits fell by 11.9% to 178.1 billion yuan [4]. - The profit margin for the automotive industry stands at 4.3%, which, although improved from 4.1% in the previous months, remains lower than the average profit margin of 5.7% for downstream industrial enterprises [5]. Group 3: New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) - The NEV market continues to show strong growth, with retail sales of 1.111 million units in June, a year-on-year increase of 29.7%, and cumulative sales of 5.468 million units in the first half, up 33.3% [6]. - The market share of pure electric vehicles is increasing, while the share of plug-in hybrid and range-extended hybrid vehicles is declining [6]. - In June, the penetration rate of NEVs reached 53.3%, an increase of 4.8 percentage points year-on-year, with significant differences in penetration rates among different brands [7]. Group 4: Brand Performance - Domestic brands achieved retail sales of 1.34 million units in June, a year-on-year increase of 30%, capturing a retail market share of 64.2% [8]. - Mainstream joint venture brands saw a slight increase in sales but a decline in market share, with German brands' share dropping by 2.4 percentage points [8]. - Luxury car sales faced challenges, with a year-on-year decline of 7% in June [9]. Group 5: Export Trends - In June, passenger car exports reached 480,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 23.8%, with NEVs accounting for a growing share of exports [10]. - NEV exports in June totaled 198,000 units, up 116.6%, representing 41.1% of total exports [10]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The automotive market is expected to enter a consolidation phase in July, influenced by high sales bases and tightening credit policies affecting car loans [10]. - Positive factors include the potential for NEVs to penetrate rural markets and the ongoing impact of the vehicle replacement subsidy policy [11].

具体来看，今年上半年，我国汽车产销量分别为1562.1万辆和1565.3万辆。其中，新能源汽车产销量分 别为696.8万辆和693.7万辆，同比分别增长41.4%和40.3%，新能源汽车新车销量达到汽车新车总销量的 44.3%。 7月1日在合肥市新桥智能电动汽车产业园蔚来第二工厂拍摄的新能源汽车生产线。新华社记者 周牧 摄 今年以来，以旧换新政策持续显效，带动内需市场明显改善，对汽车整体增长起到重要支撑作用。1至6 月，汽车国内销量达到1257万辆，同比增长11.7%。6月单月，汽车国内销量环比同比双增。 河北省保定轩宇俊鹏汽车集团市场总监范振达表示，集团旗下的20多个品牌、40多个店的百余款车型， 都可以享受国家以旧换新的政策，领取最高额度15000元的"国补"，很多客户也是奔着这个政策来的。 0:00 中国汽车工业协会10日发布的数据显示，2025年上半年我国汽车产销量首次双超1500万辆，均同比实现 两位数增长，汽车产业活力持续释放。 7月1日在合肥市新桥智能电动汽车产业园蔚来第二工厂拍摄的新能源汽车生产线。新华社记者 周牧 摄 蔚来第二先进制造基地生产负责人殷亮告诉记者，"我们工厂有300多万种的配置 ...