1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On October 13, equity indices fell while CGB futures rose. Most commodities fell, with energy & chemicals performing weakly [2][10][13]. - China's exports increased by 7.1% and imports decreased by 0.2% in the first three quarters year-on-year [1][3][43][44]. - Gold may enter a high-level consolidation phase in the short term, and remains in a long-term bull market. Silver may continue its upward trend in the short term, and its mid-term price level is expected to move upward [21][22][23][24]. - Oil prices still show a downward trend. If tariff concerns do not improve, the short-term downward trend of oil prices is expected to continue; if tariff concerns ease or phased geopolitical risks emerge, oil prices will rebound accordingly, but the downward trend will still be hard to reverse [27][28][29]. - Glass prices are expected to mainly fluctuate in line with macroeconomic trends in the short term, and high inventories in the midstream and downstream sectors may suppress glass prices for forward-month contracts in the medium to long term [35][40]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - On October 13, equity indices fell while CGB futures rose. Most commodities fell, with energy & chemicals performing weakly [10]. - The top three gainers of China's commodity futures are rapeseed, silver, and methanol, while the top three decliners are glass, LSFO, and synthetic rubber [11][12]. - Equity indices fell, with IF decreasing by 0.7%. CGB futures rose, among which TL increased by 0.4% [13]. 3.1.2 Daily Raise - Gold/Silver - On October 13, gold increased by 2.0% to 927.56 yuan/gram, and silver increased by 2.8% to 11531 yuan/kg [18][23]. - Gold may enter a high-level consolidation phase in the short term. In the long term, it remains in a long-term bull market. Silver may continue its upward trend in the short term, and its mid-term price level is expected to move upward [19][20][21][22][23][24]. 3.1.3 Daily Drop 3.1.3.1 Crude Oil - On October 13, crude oil decreased by 2.7% to 453.7 yuan/barrel. Oil prices still show a downward trend [27][29]. - Fundamental pressures persist, geopolitical support is marginally weakening, and macro risks are intensifying again. If tariff concerns do not improve, the short-term downward trend of oil prices is expected to continue; if tariff concerns ease or phased geopolitical risks emerge, oil prices will rebound accordingly, but the downward trend will still be hard to reverse [27][28][29]. 3.1.3.2 Glass - On October 13, glass decreased by 3.7% to 1179 yuan/ton [34][40][41]. - Short-term demand is seasonally recovering, but long-term demand lacks upward flexibility. Recently, industrial contradictions have been limited, and glass prices are expected to mainly fluctuate in line with macroeconomic trends. In the medium to long term, high inventories in the midstream and downstream sectors may suppress glass prices for forward-month contracts [35][40]. - The resumption of U.S. tariff hikes on China has a limited impact on glass supply and demand, but it may make the overall macro atmosphere relatively pessimistic, leading to a decline in the macro premium of glass futures prices [39][40]. 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - Canadian provincial governments call for the removal of tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles [43][44]. - China's goods trade import and export reached 33.61 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of this year, up 4% year-on-year. Among them, exports reached 19.95 trillion yuan, up 7.1% year-on-year; imports stood at 13.66 trillion yuan, down 0.2% year-on-year [43][44]. - The Dutch government will impose restrictive measures on Nexperia under Wingtech Technology, and China responds by opposing the overgeneralization of the concept of "national security" and discriminatory practices [43][44]. 3.2.2 Industry News - Multiple banks execute the first batch of cross-border bond repurchase transactions, with the trading volume on the first day reaching 5.8 billion yuan. The cross-border RMB repurchase market is expected to achieve steady growth in scale and activity, marking China's bond market moving towards a deeper "rule- and system-based" opening-up [45].

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the market was triggered by the U.S. President's threat of a 100% tariff on Chinese goods, which was later softened, leading to a significant market recovery [1][2][3]. Market Reaction - Following the President's initial threat, the market experienced a sharp decline, but rebounded strongly with the Dow gaining 588 points, S&P climbing 1.56%, and NASDAQ jumping 2.21% after the President reassured that talks with China were back on [2]. Trade Dynamics - China's exports to countries other than the U.S. increased by nearly 15%, while exports to the U.S. fell by 27%. Despite this decline, China's total exports rose by 8% in September, indicating a potential adaptation to reduced U.S. trade [4][5]. Political Rhetoric - The President's softened rhetoric over the weekend suggested a more optimistic outlook on U.S.-China relations, contrasting sharply with the earlier threats of tariffs [5][6].

Group 1 - The new demands from the U.S. government may undermine a recently reached trade agreement with the EU, which had previously eased tensions between the allies [1] - The U.S. has proposed a new trade proposal aimed at achieving "reciprocal, fair, and balanced" trade, but EU officials view these demands as excessive [1] - The U.S. is seeking discussions on EU legislation, including digital and technology rules, while the EU insists on maintaining regulatory autonomy [1] Group 2 - In return for concessions, the EU has submitted legislation to lower tariffs on U.S. industrial goods and some non-sensitive agricultural products, pending approval from the European Parliament [2] - Discussions regarding the reduction of U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum have made little progress, with the EU planning to impose tariffs on foreign steel imports exceeding certain quotas [2] - Concerns have been raised that the U.S. is expanding the list of products subject to the 50% tariff, potentially affecting medical devices and technology, which could weaken the EU's hard-won 15% tariff cap [2]

Core Points - EU officials express concerns that new US demands could undermine a recently reached trade agreement that helped avoid a trade war [1] - The US has proposed a new "reciprocal, fair, and balanced" trade principle, which EU officials find excessively demanding [1] - The ongoing negotiations are focused on the implementation of a trade agreement that imposes a 15% tariff on most EU imports [1] Group 1 - The US is seeking discussions on EU legislative matters, including digital and technology rules, corporate compliance, and climate-related regulations [1] - The EU emphasizes the importance of maintaining regulatory autonomy while being open to negotiations on each topic [1] - Recent measures have been taken by both parties to implement the trade agreement, confirming a 15% tax rate on European cars [1] Group 2 - The EU has proposed legislation to lower tariffs on US industrial products and some non-sensitive agricultural goods, pending approval from the European Parliament [2] - Negotiations to reduce the 50% tariffs on US steel and aluminum products have made little progress, with the EU planning to impose similar tariffs on foreign steel imports exceeding certain quotas [2] - Concerns arise over the US expanding the scope of tariffs on steel and aluminum while potentially imposing additional tariffs on medical devices and related technologies [2]

Trade Relations - The meeting between President Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Carney focused on trade issues, with Trump announcing plans to impose tariffs on Canada, which he believes Canada will accept willingly [1][2] - The trade relationship between the U.S. and Canada, valued at $900 billion, is under significant strain due to ongoing tariff disputes [3] - Canada’s exports to the U.S. have dropped to their lowest level since 2021, while imports have returned to 2022 levels, indicating a decline in trade activity [4] Tariffs and Economic Impact - U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminum, automobiles, and lumber are severely impacting key Canadian industries, leading to job losses and a slowdown in business investment [4] - Trump increased tariffs on non-compliant goods under the USMCA from 25% to 35%, exacerbating the trade conflict [4] - Carney's government has attempted to ease tensions by canceling most retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products, focusing only on sectors still affected by U.S. tariffs [4] Future Agreements and Cooperation - Carney aims to negotiate a short-term agreement to lower or eliminate certain industry tariffs, with a focus on collaboration in various sectors [4] - The Canadian government is also preparing for the 2026 review of the North American Free Trade Agreement, indicating a long-term strategy for trade relations [4] - In response to U.S. criticisms regarding defense spending, Canada has committed to reaching NATO's defense spending target of 2% of GDP this year, with plans to increase it to 5% by 2035 [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The resilience of the US economy is re - verified, and the game of interest rate cuts continues. In China, policy expectations are rising due to increased economic pressure in August. The US inflation outlook is clearer, and the Fed has restarted interest rate cuts, with the market expecting a more extended easing cycle [1][2]. - For commodities, it is recommended to go long on industrial products and precious metals on dips. The black and new - energy metal sectors are sensitive to domestic supply - side factors, while precious metals and agricultural products are related to overseas inflation expectations [3][4]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - In China, economic data in August showed signs of weakness, with features such as slow industrial growth, weak investment, and sluggish consumption. External tariff pressure increased, leading to an increase in domestic policy expectations for stable growth. There were positive developments in Sino - US economic and trade relations, including talks and a phone call between the leaders. On September 25, A - shares showed a mixed performance, and domestic commodity futures generally rose [1]. US Economic Situation - The US 8 - month ISM manufacturing index contracted for the sixth consecutive month, but new orders improved, and the price index declined again. The CPI increased year - on - year, while the PPI growth rate declined. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the dot - plot shows a more conservative outlook on future rate cuts than the market. There are deepening differences within the Fed on future monetary policy paths, and the US is facing a potential government shutdown [2]. Commodity Analysis - The black and new - energy metal sectors are sensitive to domestic supply - side factors. The black sector is still affected by downstream demand expectations. The non - ferrous sector has long - term supply constraints, and a major copper mine accident may reduce production. The energy sector has a relatively loose supply in the medium - term. In the chemical sector, some products have "anti - involution" potential. Agricultural products are driven by tariffs and inflation expectations but need fundamental support. Precious metals are expected to strengthen due to de - dollarization and the interest - rate cut cycle [3]. Strategy - It is recommended to go long on industrial products and precious metals on dips in the commodity and stock index futures markets [4]. Key News - The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated narrowly, while the ChiNext Index rose over 1.5%. US new - home sales reached a new high, and the second - quarter GDP growth rate was revised up. There were statements from Fed officials on interest - rate policies. The US government may shut down, and there were developments in US - EU trade agreements and new trade investigations. US EIA crude oil inventories decreased [5].

Market Overview - The three major US stock indices closed down, with the Dow Jones falling by 0.37%, the S&P 500 down by 0.28%, and the Nasdaq down by 0.33% [3] - Despite the overall market decline, Intel and Tesla saw gains, with Intel's stock price increasing by 6.41% to $31.22 per share [4][3] Chinese Stocks Performance - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 2.83%, led by Alibaba's significant increase of 8.21%, while JD.com and Baidu both rose over 5% [7] Federal Reserve Interest Rate Outlook - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October has increased to 91.9% [11][15] - Divergence among Federal Reserve officials regarding future rate cuts has emerged, with some supporting further cuts while others express caution [12][14] Trade Policy Changes - The US has officially reduced tariffs on EU automobiles to 15%, effective from August 1, 2025 [18][19] - This tariff reduction follows a trade agreement between the US and the EU, which previously included additional tariffs on the automotive sector [21] Intel's Strategic Moves - Intel is reportedly seeking investment from Apple to revitalize its operations, as both companies explore closer collaboration [6] - This potential partnership could validate Intel's transformation efforts, although Apple has shifted to self-developed processors in recent years [6] Gold Market Trends - Gold prices have experienced a decline, with spot gold dropping below $3720 per ounce, reflecting a daily decrease of over 1% [10][10]

Core Viewpoint - The new trade agreement between the US and the EU imposes a 15% tariff on EU imports of automobiles and automotive products, which is significantly higher than the previous tariff rate before Trump's administration [1][8]. Group 1: Trade Agreement Details - The US confirmed the implementation of a 15% tariff on EU automotive imports starting August 1 [1]. - The agreement includes exemptions for certain pharmaceutical compounds, aircraft parts, and other imported goods [1]. - The EU has agreed to reduce its tariff on US automobiles from 10% to zero, highlighting an imbalance in the trade agreement [8]. Group 2: Implications for the Automotive Industry - The 15% tariff represents a substantial increase from the previous 2.5% tariff that was in place before the global tariff imposition by the Trump administration [8]. - The German automotive industry, which heavily exports to the US, may face significant challenges due to the new tariffs on automotive products [8][6]. - EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that the 15% tariff was the best outcome achievable under the current circumstances [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment of Argentina's export tax policy has led to a significant decline in domestic soybean product prices, with expectations of increased imports from Argentina affecting the market dynamics in China [1][2]. Group 1: Argentina's Export Tax Policy - On September 22, the Argentine government announced the cancellation of export tariffs on soybeans, grains, and their products until October 31, reducing soybean export tariffs from 26% to zero and those on soybean oil and meal from 24.5% to zero [1][2]. - The policy has a cap of $7 billion on the total tax exemption, which will be suspended once this limit is reached [1]. Group 2: Impact on Chinese Market - Analysts predict that the zero tariff on Argentine soybeans could lower the CNF price for November shipments to $2.00 per bushel, making it approximately $0.70 per bushel cheaper than Brazilian soybeans, translating to a cost reduction of about 200 yuan per ton [1][2]. - Following the announcement, Chinese oil mills have reportedly begun purchasing 10 to 15 shipments of Argentine soybeans [1]. Group 3: Changes in Import Dynamics - Historically, China has imported limited quantities of Argentine oil and meal, with almost no soybean meal imports and only a few thousand tons of soybean oil [2]. - The price advantage of Argentine soybeans may lead to a shift in China's import patterns, increasing competition in the South American oil and meal market and posing challenges to U.S. soybean production [2]. Group 4: Domestic Supply and Demand - As of mid-September, Argentina had exported 8.76 million tons of soybeans in 2025, significantly higher than the 4.5 million tons exported during the same period last year, with an expected additional export of 2 to 3 million tons by year-end [2]. - The domestic soybean market is experiencing a supply gap, with the expectation that increased imports of Argentine soybeans could fill this gap, particularly in the first quarter of 2026 [2][3]. Group 5: Market Outlook - The domestic soybean meal market is expected to remain under pressure due to high inventory levels and the anticipated increase in imports of Argentine soybeans and meal [4]. - Analysts suggest that the demand for soybean meal remains strong due to high livestock and poultry inventory levels, but the overall market may experience downward pressure on prices due to increased supply from domestic production and imports [4].

Group 1 - The EU and Indonesia have reached a "near-zero tariff" trade agreement, which is expected to enhance their economic relationship amidst changing global trade dynamics due to US policies [1][2] - The agreement aims to reduce tariffs on 96% of goods between the EU and Indonesia to zero within five years, potentially increasing EU exports to Indonesia by at least 30%, equivalent to €3 billion [1] - Tariffs on Indonesian automotive imports from the EU will decrease from 50% to zero over five years, while tariffs on machinery and electrical goods will drop from 30% to zero in the short term [1] Group 2 - The trade agreement is part of the EU's strategy to diversify supply chains and explore new markets, following nearly a decade of negotiations [2] - Indonesia plays a crucial role in ASEAN and this agreement may set a precedent for other Southeast Asian countries, potentially boosting Indonesia's exports and investment growth [2] - The China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 negotiations have been completed, strengthening economic cooperation between China and ASEAN countries, which remains significant despite the new EU-Indonesia agreement [2]