Core Viewpoint - Indonesia's trade surplus for the first half of the year reached $19.48 billion, a 26% increase from $15.45 billion in the same period last year, driven by strong exports in June, particularly in palm oil and gold jewelry [1] Trade Performance - The trade surplus for January to June 2023 was $19.48 billion, up from $15.45 billion in the same period of 2022, marking a 26% growth [1] - June exports amounted to $23.44 billion, reflecting an 11.29% year-on-year increase [1] - Key contributors to the strong trade performance included a surge in palm oil and gold jewelry exports, as well as preemptive exports to the U.S. before tariff implementation [1] Export Dynamics - In June, Indonesia's non-oil and gas exports to the U.S. increased by 33.5% year-on-year, with major products including electronic machinery, clothing, footwear, palm oil, rubber, and seafood [1] U.S.-Indonesia Trade Agreement - A recent agreement between the U.S. and Indonesia will reduce U.S. import tariffs on Indonesian goods from 32% to 19%, with potential further reductions on certain U.S. products lacking domestic production [1] - Indonesia has agreed to eliminate tariffs on 99% of U.S. industrial goods, food, and agricultural products, and has committed to purchasing more U.S. goods [1] Future Trade Outlook - Economists suggest that the new U.S. tariffs could pressure Indonesia's trade surplus, as increased imports may coincide with declining prices for major commodities like coal [1]

值得注意的是，公告说，除另有明确规定外，没有被列入附件一的贸易伙伴商品将适用10%的额外从价 关税。来自中国产品所适用的关税税率不受这一行政令的影响。 白宫31日晚发布公告说，美国总统特朗普当日援引1977年美国《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）等法 律签署行政令，调整从69个贸易伙伴进口商品所适用的从价关税税率。 白宫发布的附件一信息显示，包括欧盟在内，绝大多数这些贸易伙伴的商品在进入美国市场时将适用从 10%至40%不等的所谓"对等关税"税率。其中，适用15%税率的国家或地区有40个，适用19%或20%税 率的国家或地区有10个。 公告表示，新的关税税率将在行政令发布7天后开始实施，但有些情况则例外。一些附件中的贸易伙伴 已经同意或接近完成与美国达成贸易和安全协议，但在这些协议完成并正式确认前仍将适用新的税率。 通过转运以逃避关税的物品将适用40%的从价关税并接受其他处罚和税费等。 此外，多个民主党籍参议员31日举行新闻发布会对特朗普加征关税和对贸易协议夸大其词等做法进行抨 击。参议院少数党领袖舒默说，美国企业需要确定性，但从中得到是混乱和通胀。他说："特朗普的关 税贸易战是对美国人民的一场贸易战。" ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [9] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [10] Core Viewpoints - The Fed's interest rate meeting maintained the interest rate level, but there are still differences within the Fed regarding the future interest rate path. If there are no significant changes in interest rates and inflation, the consolidation period of gold may be extended. It is recommended to buy gold on dips in the range of 750 yuan/gram - 762 yuan/gram [9]. - The trend of silver is generally similar to that of gold. In the long run, there is a need to repair the gold-silver ratio. If the tariff situation eases and risk sentiment rises, silver may outperform gold. However, the non - implementation of the 50% tariff on refined copper may drag down silver prices. It is recommended to buy silver on dips in the range of 8900 yuan/kg - 8950 yuan/kg [9][10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Policy News - Trump signed an executive order to modify reciprocal tariff rates for certain countries. Countries not listed in Annex I will be imposed a 10% tariff, and the tariff on Canada will be raised from 25% to 35% effective August 1, 2025. Goods transshipped to avoid the 35% Canadian tariff will be subject to a 40% transshipment tariff. US Treasury Secretary Besent said that the nomination for the Fed chairman is expected to be announced by the end of the year, and there will be two vacancies on the Fed Board. Trump also said that appointing Powell as Fed chairman was a mistake [2] Futures Market - On July 31, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 771.30 yuan/gram and closed at 770.28 yuan/gram, down 0.45% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The overnight session closed at 770.92 yuan/gram, up 0.12% from the afternoon session. The Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 9,145.00 yuan/kg and closed at 9,008.00 yuan/kg, down 2.00% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,100,640 lots, and the open interest was 371,110 lots. The overnight session closed at 8,935 yuan/kg, down 1.37% from the afternoon session [3] US Treasury Yields - On July 31, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.38%, up 0.04% from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury yields was 3%, down 1 basis point from the previous trading day [4] Position and Volume Changes - On July 31, 2025, in the Au2508 contract, long positions decreased by 2,312 lots, and short positions decreased by 1,280 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Gold contracts was 324,304 lots, up 27.56% from the previous trading day. In the Ag2508 contract, long positions decreased by 9,760 lots, and short positions decreased by 6,881 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 1,394,017 lots, up 65.29% from the previous trading day [5] ETF Holdings - On the previous trading day, the gold ETF holdings were 954.51 tons, down 0.86 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 15,062.32 tons, down 87.58 tons from the previous trading day [6] Arbitrage Tracking - On July 31, 2025, the domestic gold premium was 5.91 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 443.13 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main contract prices of gold and silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 85.51, up 1.58% from the previous trading day, and the ratio of foreign gold and silver prices was 87.86, up 0.70% from the previous trading day [7] Fundamental Data - On July 31, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 32,458 kg, up 23.61% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 675,762 kg, up 139.90% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 9,836 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 70,050 kg [8]

值得一提的是，早在今年2月，特朗普政府便依据1977年颁布的美国《国际紧急经济权力法》 （IEEPA），以芬太尼及其他违禁药物经由北部边境流入本国为由，宣布全国进入紧急状态，并随之对 加拿大输美商品开征25%的关税。而此次于31日公布的最新关税调整政策，同样是援引该法律作为其施 行依据。 【最新黄金期货行情解析】 今日沪金期货需重点关注的关键阻力位区间为794元/克至840元/克，而重要支撑位区间则位于766元/克 至815元/克。 在当日，美国总统特朗普正式签署行政命令，明确规定自8月1日起，将针对加拿大输往美国的商品所征 收的关税税率由25%提升至35%。 回溯至7月10日，特朗普曾向加拿大总理卡尼寄出信件，在其中宣告了自8月1日开始对源自加拿大的进 口商品实施35%关税的新举措。不仅如此，在31日凌晨时分，特朗普还通过社交媒体平台发声指出，鉴 于加拿大方才宣布支持巴勒斯坦的国家地位这一情况，此举极有可能使美加两国达成贸易协议的进程面 临重重阻碍，变得愈发艰难。 今日周五（8月1日)亚盘时段，黄金期货目前交投于768.50附近，截至发稿，黄金期货暂报770.08元/ 克，涨幅0.02%，最高触及773.1 ...

经济观察网 据央视新闻消息，当地时间7月31日，白宫表示，美国总统特朗普已签署行政令，将对加拿 大的关税税率从25%上调至35%，新关税将于8月1日生效。 白宫在声明中指出，此次加税是"为应对加拿大持续的不作为和报复行为"，并称总统"认定有必要以提 高税率的方式，有效应对当前的紧急局势"。 白宫方面还表示，该举措是特朗普政府近期一系列关税调整的一部分。此前，白宫还发布行政令，对部 分国家重新设定"对等关税"税率标准：行政令附件1中列明国家将适用个别税率，未列明国家则统一适 用10%的税率；如有国家或地区通过第三地转运方式规避关税，其商品将被征收40%的转运税。 ...

金十数据8月1日讯，新西兰贸易部长表示，新西兰将推动特朗普降低对美出口商品征收的15%关 税。"我们将提出理由，说明为什么不应该发生这种情况，并非常迅速地与美国官员进行接触，以澄清 这一点，并寻求改变。"周四晚些时候，白宫在华盛顿公布了一系列新关税。美国官员表示，对美国有 贸易顺差的国家至少要缴纳15%的关税。 新西兰欲说服特朗普削减15%的新关税 ...

市场消息：新西兰将推动美国降低关税，此前美国上调关税至15%。 ...

白宫在声明中指出，此次加税是"为应对加拿大持续的不作为和报复行为"，并称总统"认定有必要以提高税率 的方式，有效应对当前的紧急局势"。 白宫方面还表示，该举措是特朗普政府近期一系列关税调整的一部分。此前，白宫还发布行政令，对部分国 家重新设定"对等关税"税率标准：行政令附件1中列明国家将适用个别税率，未列明国家则统一适用10%的税率； 如有国家或地区通过第三地转运方式规避关税，其商品将被征收40%的转运税。 记者获悉，当地时间7月31日，白宫表示，美国总统特朗普已签署行政令，将对加拿大的关税税率从25%上调 至35%，新关税将于8月1日生效。 ...

Core Points - President Trump signed an executive order on July 31 to modify the "reciprocal tariff" policy, adjusting additional tariff rates on goods from multiple countries to address what the U.S. claims is a "national security emergency" due to long-standing trade deficits [1][2] - The new tariff rates include an increase for Canada from 25% to 35%, effective August 1, and a uniform 10% tariff for countries not listed in the executive order [2][6] - The order also stipulates a 40% tariff on goods found to be rerouted through third countries to evade tariffs, with a public "evasion list" updated semi-annually [1][2] Tariff Adjustments - For Japan, South Korea, and New Zealand, the tariff rate is set at 15% [1] - For EU countries, if the current tariff is below 15%, it will be raised to 15%, while those above 15% will not see additional increases [1] - The executive order is part of a broader series of tariff adjustments by the Trump administration [2] Specific Measures - An additional 50% tariff will be imposed on imported copper semi-finished products and high-copper content derivatives starting August 1 [6][7] - From August 29, the U.S. will suspend the tax exemption for imported packages valued at $800 or less [6] - A 40% tariff will be applied to products imported from Brazil starting August 6, with certain exceptions for specific goods [7] Trade Negotiations - President Trump indicated that Canada's stance on Palestine will not affect the tariff agreement, emphasizing that Canada must "pay a fair tax rate" [4] - The U.S. and Mexico have agreed to extend their tariff agreement for 90 days, during which they will negotiate further [5]

（原标题：特朗普签令：关税税率上调至35%！） 来源：央视新闻客户端 当地时间7月31日，美国总统特朗普表示，加拿大对巴勒斯坦的立场不会影响关税协议达成，加拿大必 须"支付一个公平的税率"。特朗普称他尚未与加拿大总理卡尼交谈。 据悉，加拿大贸易谈判团队目前在华盛顿，官方对相关细节守口如瓶。特朗普的言论表明美加关税协议 仍处于不确定状态，加拿大尚未达成协议以避免关税上调。 当地时间7月30日，加拿大总理卡尼表示，如果约旦河西岸管理机构满足某些条件，加拿大将于今年9月 召开的联合国大会上宣布承认巴勒斯坦国。 特朗普称美国与墨西哥的关税协议将延长90天 当地时间7月31日，美国总统特朗普在其社交平台"真实社交"上发文称，他与墨西哥总统辛鲍姆进行了 电话交谈。特朗普表示，与墨西哥达成协议的复杂性与其他国家达成协议有所不同，双方同意延长两国 的协议90天，即墨西哥将继续支付25%的芬太尼关税、25%的汽车关税以及50%的钢铁、铝和铜关税。 特朗普称，墨西哥已同意立即取消其设置的许多非关税贸易壁垒。美国将在未来90天内与墨西哥进行磋 商，目标是在90天或更长时间内签署贸易协议。双方将继续在边境安全的各个方面开展合作，包括 ...