大摩宏观闭门会议 20250609 发言人 00:00 欢迎来到 1 周一度的大摩宏观策略谈，我是邢自强 Robin。今天我们的标题叫中美是否峰回路转。因为 上周双方的领导人有个电话，之后美方领导也预告了中美的贸易谈判会恢复，这周就在伦敦开盘，所以 大家很关注下一步的看点，关税等等，贸易摩擦是变好还是继续恶化。今天我和我们的首席策略师罗会 继续就这个问题对市场的影响做一些前瞻分析。 发言人 00:35 当然跟贸易谈判离不开的一点就是最近愈演愈烈的稀土，这个问题备受关注。这张牌中国为什么这时候 用？会怎么用？是否会重塑全球在科技竞争和产业竞争方面的一些规则和格局？我们也会跟我们基础原 材料行业的首席 Rachel 一起来具体的分析。 发言人 00:58 因为今天早晨追求的团队和我们宏观团队一起发布了对稀土问题的一个深度的问答。就这张牌如何用， 怎么用？国际上的影响和反制大概是怎样？ 发言人 01:13 当然 rita 也会带着他最新的一些从行业中的调研，特别是现在供给侧，大家感觉到内卷还比较厉害。刚 刚发布的 PPI 在半个多小时之前大家也看到了通缩在继续深化。这个过程中供给侧一些反内卷的努力。 能不能做到缩量 ...

以下文章来源于思想钢印 ，作者思想钢印 思想钢印 . 雪球2020年度十大影响力用户，私募基金经理 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：思想钢印9999 来源：雪球 01 924后的 " 分手 " 上半年的股市可谓有惊无险 ， 赚钱机会多多 ， 但隔壁的商品市场就是完全两样的风景 ， 大部 分工业品都是 " 一路南下派 " ， 几乎被空头力量主导 ， 偶尔借停产检修或宏观利好反弹一把 ， 也成为 " 每涨卖机 " 。 国内上市的67个商品期货品种中 ， 主力合约价格年初以来下跌的有39个 ， 看上去没有那么惨 ？ 你再看上涨的28个品种中 ， 几乎都是金银和农产品 ， 工业品只有铜 、 铝 、 锡三个国际定 价的有色品种和尿素这个严格出口管制的农化产品 。 像焦煤 、 玻璃 、 甲醇 、 塑料 、 橡胶 、 纯碱 、 螺纹钢这一类重要的大宗商品 ， 都是跌幅巨大 。 上半年这一轮工业品的下跌 ， 实际上是在延续21年以来的商品熊市 ： 焦煤主力合约上半年跌了34% ， 从21年最高点跌了80% ； 玻璃主力合约上半年跌了25% ， 从21年最高点跌了68 ...

欧洲央行管委森特诺：美国征收的关税具有通缩作用。 ...

智通财经6月6日电，欧洲央行VILLEROY表示，欧洲央行赢得了对抗通胀的胜利，未发现通缩风险。 ...

Group 1 - The OECD report indicates a rapid decline in the overall inflation rate of the G20, projecting a drop from 6.2% in 2024 to 3.6% in 2025, and further to 3.2% in 2026, suggesting a gradual recovery from high inflation globally [2] - Despite the optimistic outlook, there are significant regional disparities, with the United States showing a unique performance that has garnered market attention [2] - Many major economies, excluding the U.S., face the risk of inflation remaining below target levels, with the Eurozone and China actively combating this downward trend [2] Group 2 - The paper gold price opened at 777.95 yuan per gram, reaching a high of 780.62 yuan and a low of 776.01 yuan, closing at 778.70 yuan with a slight increase of 0.11% [1] - Key resistance levels for paper gold are identified in the range of 794-804, while important support levels are noted between 743-753 [3]

Group 1 - Indonesia's government has launched an economic stimulus plan worth 24.44 trillion Indonesian rupiah (approximately $1.5 billion) aimed at boosting consumption and economic growth during the school holiday period from June to July [1] - The stimulus plan includes five key policies: transportation discounts, social assistance, wage subsidies, and toll road incentives, with the goal of maintaining a 5% economic growth rate in the second quarter [1] - Economic challenges are evident, with GDP growth projected at 4.87% in Q1 2025, down from 5.04% in Q4 2023 and 5.02% in Q4 2024, alongside rising unemployment and declining consumer purchasing power [2] Group 2 - The summer economic stimulus plan has sparked discussions domestically, reflecting the government's confidence in achieving the 5% growth target, and emphasizing a long-term strategy to expand domestic demand as a growth engine [3] - The plan aims to enhance the overall investment attractiveness of the Southeast Asian region, showcasing economic resilience, consumer vitality, and industrial upgrades [3] - However, the plan faces challenges due to poor inter-departmental coordination, with several relevant departments unaware of the policy, potentially undermining its effectiveness [3]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call discusses the macroeconomic landscape, focusing on the U.S. and China, highlighting the challenges and opportunities in various sectors, including luxury goods and technology. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **U.S.-China Tariff Levels**: The average tariff between the U.S. and China is expected to remain between 30% and 40%, with limited potential for significant reductions in the short term due to various administrative measures [2][6][3]. 2. **U.S. Fiscal Deficit and Debt**: The U.S. fiscal deficit is projected to increase by approximately $300 billion annually, raising concerns about long-term debt sustainability and its impact on the dollar's status as a safe-haven asset [7][9]. 3. **China's Economic Challenges**: China is facing deflationary pressures and difficulties in achieving rebalancing and reflation, with a negative GDP deflator expected this year [8][12]. 4. **Emergence of Local Luxury Brands**: A local gold brand in China is projected to surpass Cartier in sales within the Greater China region by 2025, indicating a shift towards domestic brands in the luxury market [2][18]. 5. **AI Technology Growth**: China's AI ecosystem is expected to achieve an 82% self-sufficiency rate by 2027, showcasing the competitive edge of local products despite international barriers [2][19]. 6. **Impact of Dollar Weakness**: A weaker dollar is anticipated to benefit emerging markets, with recommendations to overweight investments in India, Singapore, and the UAE while being cautious with sectors linked to macroeconomic deflation in China [2][27]. Additional Important Content 1. **Uncertainties in Global Economy**: Key uncertainties include tariff policies, non-tariff barriers, talent and immigration policies, and the transparency of macroeconomic data, which could affect investment strategies [3][4][5]. 2. **China's Structural Reforms**: The need for structural reforms in China is emphasized, particularly in addressing supply-demand imbalances and enhancing social security to stimulate consumption [15][17][26]. 3. **Automotive Industry Price Wars**: The automotive sector in China is experiencing intense price competition, driven by the need for sales volume and inventory clearance, which is impacting profit margins across the supply chain [37][38]. 4. **Local Government's Role**: Local governments are incentivized to focus on production rather than consumption due to their performance evaluations being tied to GDP growth, which complicates efforts to stimulate consumer spending [24][16]. 5. **Investment Outlook**: Despite the challenges, there are structural investment opportunities in technology and quality large-cap stocks in China, with a cautious approach recommended for sectors affected by deflation [40][30]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape and its implications for investment strategies.

Economic Overview - The domestic economy is entering a deflationary cycle starting in 2024, with the CPI index remaining low, showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.1% in Q1 of this year, primarily due to a sluggish real economy and reduced consumer demand [1][2]. Wage and Employment Trends - Wage income is expected to decline, leading to a significant impact on consumer spending [2][4]. - Many companies are experiencing reduced profitability, resulting in layoffs and salary cuts as a survival strategy, with a notable increase in job seekers, particularly among the 12.22 million new graduates this year [4]. Real Estate Market - Housing prices are projected to continue their downward trend into 2025, driven by poor sales performance of new homes and an increase in second-hand home listings, particularly in major cities like Shanghai and Guangzhou [6][4]. - Real estate companies are likely to resort to price reductions to clear inventory, further exacerbating the decline in property values [6]. Automotive Industry - The automotive market is witnessing widespread price reductions, with domestic mid-range cars dropping by 15,000 to 20,000 yuan and imported luxury cars seeing declines of up to 100,000 yuan [8]. - Factors contributing to this trend include increased competition from new energy vehicles, reduced purchasing power among middle-class families, and overcapacity in the automotive sector due to new entrants like Xiaomi and Huawei [8]. Banking Sector - Major state-owned banks are accelerating interest rate cuts, with the three-year deposit rate dropping from 3.15% to 1.9%, significantly affecting interest income for savers, especially the elderly [11]. - The central bank aims to encourage spending and investment by lowering deposit rates, while also hoping to stimulate loan demand by reducing financing costs for businesses and homebuyers [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising costs of living in various cities, particularly focusing on public transportation fare increases and utility price hikes, indicating a shift in economic dynamics where traditional funding mechanisms are no longer sustainable [4][7][14]. Group 1: Public Transportation Pricing - Cities like Chongqing, Kunming, and Guangzhou are initiating fare increases for public transportation, signaling a broader trend across urban areas [2][3]. - The financial strain on public transportation systems is evident, with Chongqing's metro receiving a subsidy of 4.35 billion yuan and Beijing 24.85 billion yuan, yet still facing deficits [7]. - The previous model of "land financing" for metro systems is failing as real estate sales decline, forcing cities to rely on fare increases for operational sustainability [8][9]. Group 2: Cost of Living and Inflation - The article highlights that while housing prices have decreased, the cost of living is rising, leading to a perception of financial strain among households [4][5]. - The adjustment of utility prices is linked to government fiscal pressures, as subsidies diminish when land sales decline [14][15]. - The government is signaling a need to address low prices in essential services to prevent deflationary pressures, which could undermine market confidence [16]. Group 3: Economic Implications - Rising prices in essential services like transportation and utilities are expected to impact the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), with potential increases of 0.2-0.4 percentage points for CPI and 0.5-1 percentage points for PPI if utility prices rise by 4%-8% [17]. - The article suggests that the current inflation is not widespread but concentrated in unavoidable expenses, leading to a mismatch between stagnant income growth and rising living costs [19][20]. - The focus of asset allocation is shifting from high returns to stable cash flow assets, as households seek to manage cash flow amidst rising living costs [24][29].

最近，中美两国都拉响了通缩警报。中国4月份的CPI指数是-0.1%，国内物价总体呈现"稳中有降"的趋势。而美国同期的CPI指数也突然跳水，从3%跌到 2.3%。美国二手车和房租的价格都下跌。就连硅谷等科技公司都开始暂停招聘。为此，有专家警告：中美两国都迎来了通缩周期，现在物价下降并不是暂 时，而只是刚刚开始。 可能很多人都觉得，通货紧缩对老百姓是好事情，大家手里的钱越来越值钱了。比如，超市猪肉价格从20多元，跌到10多元。各种品牌的汽车降价幅度都是 上万元。就连家电的降幅也都在10%以上。而事实上，通胀和通缩对经济来说，都不是好事情。 以通缩为例，所谓通缩就是物价持续下降，消费需求不断萎缩。这就会导致企业生产的商品卖不出去。于是，只能大幅降价销售。在这种情况下，企业会出 现效益下滑，被迫采取裁员降薪的策略。而员工在收入减少或失业之后，消费能力被严重削弱。如此就形成了恶性循环。 面对当前中美通缩警报的拉响，我们普通人现在最该做的5件事情，要比存钱更加重要。它们分别是：①把之前的债务全都还清；②留出足够的生活费；③ 提高自己的技能；④减少不必要的支出；⑤学习投资理财知识。让我们一起来了解一下： 第一，把之前的债务 ...