Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2] Core Views - The report highlights the positive outlook for metal prices driven by interest rate cuts and seasonal demand in September and October [1] - Geopolitical tensions are increasing, which benefits gold's safe-haven appeal [1] - The copper price is expected to rise due to macroeconomic factors and seasonal demand, while aluminum prices are anticipated to experience strong fluctuations [1] - Lithium prices are projected to decline due to increased supply and cautious demand from downstream industries [1] Summary by Sections Weekly Data Tracking - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a general increase in prices, with a notable rise in various metal prices [6][20] - The copper price reached over $10,000 per ton, influenced by rising interest rate expectations and seasonal demand [1][22] - Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong due to seasonal demand and macroeconomic factors [1][22] Precious Metals - The report indicates that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates in September and October, which is expected to support gold prices [1][34] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and Ukraine, are contributing to the bullish sentiment for gold [1][34] Industrial Metals - Copper: The price is expected to rise due to seasonal demand and macroeconomic conditions [1] - Aluminum: Short-term price fluctuations are anticipated due to seasonal demand and supply adjustments [1] - Nickel: Prices are expected to rise steadily as seasonal demand materializes [1] Energy Metals - Lithium: Prices are experiencing a downward trend due to increased production and cautious demand from the electric vehicle market [1][25] - Cobalt: Supply tightness combined with seasonal demand may lead to a potential price increase [1] - Silicon Metal: The market is expected to remain stable with limited price fluctuations [1] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include: - Xiamen Tungsten Co., Ltd. (厦门钨业) [5] - Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd. (紫金矿业) [5] - China Hongqiao Group Limited (中国宏桥) [5] - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co., Ltd. (赤峰黄金) [5] - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. (洛阳钼业) [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of cast aluminum alloy is oscillating at a high level due to the continuous shortage of scrap aluminum supply, and the ADC12 - A00 spread has converged significantly [2][4]. - In the short term, driven by the gradually recovering demand in the peak season and cost - side support, the price of cast aluminum alloy may continue to oscillate at a high level. Although the downstream demand has slightly improved in the "Golden September and Silver October" season, the increase in enterprise orders is limited, and the performance of the peak season needs further observation. The supply - side start - up rate has slightly increased, but the market is waiting and seeing due to the uncertainty of the tax - refund cancellation policy. Some enterprises are purchasing at high prices across regions to ensure order delivery, and the raw material supply remains tight [6]. - The inventory of aluminum alloy ingots has increased. As of September 12, the combined factory and social inventory of aluminum alloy ingot factories increased by 14,400 tons to 131,300 tons compared with the previous week, and the inventory accumulation rate has increased. The supply shortage of raw materials has intensified due to the tight circulation of domestic and foreign scrap aluminum and increased demand. The domestic automobile sales in the last week of September decreased, but the "trade - in" policy is expected to boost automobile consumption, and the automobile sales are expected to improve month - on - month [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction End - Volume and Price - The report presents data on trading volume, open interest, price spreads between different contracts (such as AD00 - 01, AD01 - 02, AD02 - 03), and capital precipitation in the cast aluminum alloy market [9]. 3.2 Transaction End - Arbitrage 3.2.1 Inter - period Positive Arbitrage Cost Calculation - The cost of inter - period positive arbitrage for cast aluminum alloy is calculated. For the AD2511 and AD2512 contracts on September 12, 2025, the fixed cost is 5.28 yuan/ton, mainly including value - added tax on the spread and trading fees. The floating cost is 70.92 yuan/ton, including storage fees, capital costs for holding warehouse receipts, and futures capital costs. The total cost is 76 yuan/ton [12]. 3.2.2 Spot - Futures Arbitrage Cost Calculation - The cost of spot - futures arbitrage is calculated. Based on the reference price of Baotai Group, considering storage fees, capital costs, warehousing fees, inspection fees, trading fees, etc., the warehouse receipt cost is 20,815.9 yuan/ton [14]. 3.3 Supply End - Scrap Aluminum - The production of scrap aluminum is at a high level, and the social inventory is at a medium - high level in history. The import of scrap aluminum is also at a high level, with a relatively fast year - on - year growth rate. The price spread between refined and scrap aluminum has shown a downward trend [16][21][25]. 3.4 Supply End - Recycled Aluminum - The price of Baotai ADC12 has increased, and the spread between recycled and primary aluminum has converged significantly. The regional price spread of cast aluminum alloy has strengthened and shows certain seasonal patterns. The weekly start - up rate of recycled aluminum has rebounded, while the monthly start - up rate has slightly decreased. The production of recycled aluminum alloy has certain regional distribution characteristics. The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of scrap aluminum, and it is currently estimated to be above the break - even line. The factory inventory of cast aluminum alloy has decreased, while the social inventory accumulation rate has increased. The import window of cast aluminum alloy is currently closed [33][38][43][48][53][58]. - The production and inventory of recycled aluminum rods are also presented. The production and factory inventory of recycled aluminum rods have certain regional distribution characteristics [60][62]. 3.5 Demand End - Terminal Consumption - The production of fuel - powered vehicles has declined, which has affected the die - casting consumption. Data on the production of new energy vehicles, motorcycles, and small household appliances are also provided, as well as the PPI of auto parts manufacturing and the automobile inventory warning index [66][67].

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to experience an upward turning point in the industry, driven by clear improvement factors, with sales showing signs of recovery after a challenging period in early 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In August 2025, China's narrow passenger car wholesale sales reached 2.458 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.5% and a month-on-month increase of 9.6% [1]. - The overall inventory of passenger car manufacturers decreased by 90,000 units in August, with a notable reduction of 50,000 units in new energy vehicle inventory, indicating a clear trend of destocking [1]. - The upcoming peak sales season in September and October, along with year-end sales efforts, is expected to strengthen the industry's beta [1]. Group 2: Company Performance - The company launched several new models with positive market responses, including the new Sea Lion 06 EV+DM-i, which achieved retail sales of 25,400 units in August, ranking second in SUV sales in China, just behind the Model Y [1]. - The company's brand positioning for the Equation Leopard series has evolved, with the Titanium series combining ruggedness and comfort, meeting consumer demands for design and personalization. The Titanium 3 model sold 9,000 units in August, while the Titanium 7, launched on September 9, is expected to further contribute to sales recovery due to its strong cost-performance ratio [1]. - The average selling price (ASP) is expected to rise as terminal discounts stabilize, with industry discount rates decreasing from 19.4% in June to 17.8% in July [2]. - The company’s overseas sales from May to August 2025 were 89,000, 90,000, 81,000, and 81,000 units, showing year-on-year increases of 137%, 234%, 169%, and 157% respectively, with expectations of maintaining over 150% growth in 2025 [2]. Group 3: Financial Projections - Based on sales data from January to August, the company may adjust its annual targets, with revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 at 969.99 billion, 1,049.53 billion, and 1,126.33 billion yuan, and net profits at 47.89 billion, 55.49 billion, and 61.15 billion yuan respectively [3]. - The projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025-2027 are 20.2, 17.4, and 15.8, with a "recommend" rating suggested [3].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a dip and recovery during the session, with the ChiNext Index falling over 1% while the Hong Kong market saw a strong rise, with the Hang Seng Technology Index increasing by over 2% [1] - The three major A-share indices closed lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.12% at 3870.6 points, the Shenzhen Component down 0.43% at 12924.13 points, and the ChiNext Index down 1.09% at 3020.42 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 25,486 billion yuan, an increase of 837 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] Sector Performance Non-ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a strong rally, with several stocks hitting the daily limit, including Electric Alloy (300697) up 20%, New Weiling up nearly 12%, and Northern Copper and Hunan Silver also reaching their limits [3][4] - Yunnan Copper rose nearly 9%, indicating strong demand and price support in the sector [3] Semiconductor - The semiconductor sector was notably active, with Chip Origin (688521) hitting a 20% limit up after announcing a restructuring plan to acquire a majority stake in Chip Technology [7][9] - Other semiconductor stocks like Beijing Junzheng (300223) and Jiangbolong saw increases of approximately 14% and 13.83%, respectively [7][8] - The company reported a record high in orders, with a total of 30.25 billion yuan in hand orders, and new orders signed amounting to 12.05 billion yuan, a significant increase of 85.88% year-on-year [9] Hong Kong Market Highlights - In the Hong Kong market, pharmaceutical company Yaojie Ankang surged by 77%, with intraday gains exceeding 130% [2] - Baidu Group and Alibaba also saw increases of over 8% and 5%, respectively, while Jay Chou's company, Giant Star Legend, experienced a rise of over 20% during the session [2][11] Strategic Developments - The semiconductor equipment domesticization rate is expected to reach 18% by 2025, indicating a 4 percentage point increase year-on-year, highlighting the ongoing trend towards domestic production [10] - The establishment of Changchun Phase III (Wuhan) Integrated Circuit Co., with a registered capital of 20.72 billion yuan, reflects the growing investment in the semiconductor industry [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Henan provincial government has introduced a series of measures to support housing consumption, aiming to meet both rigid and diverse housing demands and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market [1][2] - The measures include increasing housing purchase subsidies for families buying their first or second new homes between September 1, 2025, and December 31, 2025, with existing subsidy policies potentially extended to the end of 2025 [1] - The housing provident fund policy will be adjusted to allow a 10% increase in personal housing loan limits, with the maximum loan amount not exceeding the difference between the total purchase price and the down payment [1] Group 2 - The initiative emphasizes the acquisition of existing commercial housing for use as affordable housing, with a target of acquiring 1 million square meters in Zhengzhou by 2025 [1] - The measures also include increasing the supply of quality housing and enhancing the regulation of real estate intermediary agencies to lower service fees and standardize transaction information [1] - The timing of these policies coincides with the traditional peak sales season in the real estate market, which is expected to boost market confidence and activate housing demand [2]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate stocks have shown significant upward movement, driven by policy adjustments in major cities like Shenzhen, which have relaxed purchase restrictions, leading to increased trading activity in the sector [4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On September 12, the Hong Kong real estate index rose by 1.54%, with 129 stocks increasing, 91 remaining flat, and 65 declining [2]. - Notable stock performances included Evergrande Property with a rise of 20.65%, followed by Oceanwide Holdings at 13.07%, and Hongyang Real Estate at 12.24% [2]. - In the A-share market, the real estate index increased by 1.5%, ranking fourth among industry sectors, with 86 stocks rising and 11 falling [2]. Group 2: Policy Changes - Major cities, including Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, have relaxed purchase restrictions, with Shenzhen's adjustments being more significant than those in Beijing and Shanghai [4]. - The new policies in Shenzhen include optimizing housing purchase policies and eliminating distinctions in interest rates for first and second homes [4]. Group 3: Market Response - Following the policy changes, Shenzhen's second-hand housing transactions recorded a 37% increase over the previous weekend [4]. - The number of second-hand contracts signed in Shenzhen increased by 45% in the six days following the policy changes compared to the six days prior [4]. - Specific areas like Luohu saw a remarkable 109% increase in transactions, indicating strong market responsiveness to the new policies [4].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate sector has seen a significant increase in stock prices, driven by policy adjustments in major cities like Shenzhen, which have relaxed purchase restrictions, leading to heightened trading activity and market optimism [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - In the Hong Kong market, the real estate index rose by 1.54%, with 129 stocks increasing, 91 remaining flat, and 65 declining [1]. - Notable stock performances include Evergrande Property up by 20.65%, and other companies like Far East Horizon, Hongyang Real Estate, and Greenland Hong Kong also showing substantial gains [1]. - In the A-share market, the real estate index increased by 1.5%, ranking fourth among industry sectors, with 86 stocks rising and 11 falling [1]. Group 2: Policy Changes - Major cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen have relaxed purchase restrictions, with Shenzhen's new policies allowing for more flexible home buying conditions [3]. - The Shenzhen government has adjusted policies regarding the purchase of residential properties, including changes to the pricing mechanism for loans [3]. - The impact of these policy changes is evident, with a reported 8.2% increase in second-hand home transactions in Shenzhen during the week prior to the policy change [3]. Group 3: Market Activity - Following the policy adjustments, there has been a 45% increase in second-hand home signing volumes in Shenzhen compared to the previous week [3]. - Specific districts like Luohu have seen a remarkable 109% increase in transactions, indicating strong market responsiveness to the new policies [3]. - The traditional peak season for real estate transactions, "Golden September and Silver October," is expected to further stabilize the market, warranting ongoing observation of market trends [3].

Report Information - Report Title: Black Series Weekly Report - Report Date: 9/12/2025 - Author: Shi Lei, Shi Zhuoran [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Mid - long term: The rebar 01 contract mainly oscillated at a low level this week. Steel mills have fully resumed production, and the supply of rebar is expected to increase. The PPI continued to decline in August but the decline narrowed, the PMI data was still below the boom - bust line, and the real estate data remained weak, lacking support on the finished product demand side. The new policy proposed by the Guinean government regarding the Simandou iron ore development has a shrinking impact. The daily average hot metal output has significantly increased, strengthening the support on the iron ore demand side, and it will continue to oscillate in the short term. For glass, the start - up rate was flat with last week, the weekly output increased, the factory inventory decreased, and the demand side recovered slowly. For soda ash, the factory inventory continued to decline, with mainly rigid demand procurement from downstream, and the improvement in the supply - demand fundamentals was limited, and the main contract oscillated weakly and steadily [64][68]. - Short term: Recently, the main contracts of the black series mainly oscillated within a range. Pay attention to the demand start - up situation during the "Golden September and Silver October". This week, the fundamentals of glass and soda ash improved limitedly, and the disk continued to consolidate at the bottom [65][69]. Summary by Directory Black Series Weekly Market Review - Rebar (RB2601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 3143.0 on 9/5/2025 to 3127.0 on 9/12/2025, a decrease of 16.0 (-0.5%), the spot price was 3220.0, and the basis was 93.0 [3]. - Hot - rolled coil (HC2601): The closing price of the futures main contract increased from 3340.0 on 9/5/2025 to 3364.0 on 9/12/2025, an increase of 24.0 (0.7%), the spot price was 3400.0, and the basis was 36.0 [3]. - Iron ore (I2601): The closing price of the futures main contract increased from 789.5 on 9/5/2025 to 799.5 on 9/12/2025, an increase of 10.0 (1.3%), the spot price was 796.0, and the basis was - 3.5 [3]. - Coke (J2601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 1646.5 on 9/5/2025 to 1625.5 on 9/12/2025, a decrease of 21.0 (-1.3%), the spot price was 1620.0, and the basis was - 5.5 [3]. - Coking coal (JM2601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 1158.5 on 9/5/2025 to 1144.5 on 9/12/2025, a decrease of 14.0 (-1.2%), the spot price was 1280.0, and the basis was 135.5 [3]. - Glass (FG601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 1189.0 on 9/5/2025 to 1180.0 on 9/12/2025, a decrease of 9.0 (-0.8%), the spot price was 1240.0, and the basis was 60.0 [3]. - Soda ash (SA601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 1302.0 on 9/5/2025 to 1290.0 on 9/12/2025, a decrease of 12.0 (-0.9%), the spot price was 1280.9, and the basis was - 9.1 [3]. Rebar - Profit: On September 11, the rebar blast furnace profit was - 23 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton compared with September 4 [7]. - Supply: As of 9/12/2025, the blast furnace start - up rate was 83.83%, an increase of 3.43 percentage points; the daily average hot metal output was 2.4055 million tons, an increase of 117,100 tons; the rebar output was 2.1193 million tons, a decrease of 67,500 tons [12]. - Demand: In the week of September 12, the apparent consumption of rebar was 1.9807 million tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons compared with the previous week; as of September 11, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 91,912 tons [17]. - Inventory: In the week of September 12, the social inventory of rebar was 4.8723 million tons, an increase of 185,700 tons compared with the previous week; the factory inventory was 1.6663 million tons, a decrease of 47,100 tons [22]. Iron Ore - Supply: In the week of September 5, the global iron ore shipment volume was 2.7562 million tons, a decrease of 800,600 tons compared with the previous week; the arrival volume at 47 ports in the country was 2.5729 million tons, a decrease of 72,100 tons [27]. - Inventory: In the week of September 12, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was 14.45612 million tons, an increase of 30,400 tons compared with the previous week; the inventory of imported iron ore of 247 steel enterprises was 8.99305 million tons, an increase of 53,180 tons [30]. - Demand: In the week of September 12, the daily average port clearance volume of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was 344,390 tons, an increase of 14,060 tons compared with the previous week; as of September 11, the trading volume at major Chinese ports was 112,400 tons [35]. Float Glass - Supply: In the week of September 12, the number of float glass production lines in operation was 225, the same as last week; the weekly output was 1.121225 million tons, an increase of 4,200 tons compared with the previous week; as of September 11, the capacity utilization rate was 80.08%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points; the start - up rate was 76.01%, the same as last week [38]. - Inventory: In the week of September 12, the factory inventory of float glass was 61.583 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.467 million weight boxes compared with September 5; the available days of factory inventory were 26.3 days, a decrease of 0.6 days compared with the previous week [43]. - Demand: As of September 1, the order days of glass deep - processing downstream manufacturers were 10.4 days [47]. Soda Ash - Supply: In the week of September 12, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 87.29%, an increase of 1.07 percentage points compared with last week; the output was 761,100 tons, an increase of 9,400 tons compared with the previous week [52]. - Inventory: As of September 12, the factory inventory of soda ash was 1.7975 million tons, a decrease of 24,600 tons compared with the previous week [57]. - Sales - to - production ratio: As of September 12, the sales - to - production ratio of soda ash was 103.23%, a decrease of 2.81 percentage points compared with the previous week [61].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The dual - coking futures prices maintained a sideways consolidation with a narrowing amplitude this week. Overseas economic data is weak, and the finished product market performs poorly. The inventory pressure of coking coal upstream has been significantly reduced. After the parade, the supply and demand sides of dual - coking are slowly recovering, and the increase in hot metal production supports the demand for dual - coking, weakening the downward price drive. The firmness of raw material prices erodes steel mill profits, and steel mills' willingness to lower coke prices is increasing. In the short term, the dual - coking fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and the futures prices will mainly fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the demand of finished products during the "Golden September and Silver October" and the downstream replenishment rhythm before the National Day [6][35]. Summary by Directory Report Summary - As of September 9, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.24%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.16 percentage points. The capital availability rate of non - housing construction projects increased slightly, while that of housing construction projects decreased significantly [5]. - The US revised down its non - farm employment figures by 911,000 from March last year to March this year, and the number of initial jobless claims last week reached the highest level since October 2021. From January to August 2025, the sales of 16 key real - estate enterprises decreased by 17% year - on - year. In August, China's steel exports decreased by 3.3% month - on - month [7]. - The supply of coking coal increased slightly, and the upstream inventory continued to decline. Independent coking enterprises continued to reduce coking coal inventory, and steel mills mainly made rigid - demand purchases. Coke production increased, and consumption followed the rise in hot metal production. The first round of coke price cuts was implemented, and the second round began [7]. Multi - empty Focus - Bullish factors include reduced coking coal inventory pressure, increased hot metal production driving up coke demand, and replenishment expectations before the National Day [10]. - Bearish factors include the recovery of Mongolian coal imports, low enthusiasm for downstream coking coal replenishment, and weak US economic data affecting overseas demand expectations [10]. Data Analysis - Coking coal supply: The operating rate of 314 sample coal - washing plants decreased slightly, but the daily output of clean coal increased. The operating rate and daily output of 523 sample mines increased. The customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port also increased [13]. - Coking coal upstream inventory: As of September 12, the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines, 314 sample coal - washing plants, and ports all decreased, reducing the overall inventory pressure [16]. - Independent coking enterprises: As of September 12, the coking coal inventory decreased, and the inventory - available days decreased. The coke inventory increased slightly, and the replenishment enthusiasm for coking coal remained weak [19]. - Steel mills: As of September 12, the coking coal inventory decreased, and the coke inventory increased. The overall raw materials were mainly purchased for rigid demand [23]. - Coke production: As of September 5, the capacity utilization rate and daily output of independent coking enterprises and 247 steel enterprises increased after the parade [25]. - Coke consumption: As of September 12, China's coke consumption increased, and the daily hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises exceeded 2.4 million tons, driving up coke demand [27]. - Coke price cuts: After the first - round coke price cut, the profit of coking enterprises was compressed. Steel mills' willingness to cut prices increased, and the second - round price cut was planned to be implemented on September 15 [30]. - Dual - coking far - month basis structure: The spot and futures prices of dual - coking fluctuated at high levels [32]. 后市研判 - From a macro perspective, overseas economic data is weak, and the finished product market performs poorly. The inventory pressure of coking coal upstream has been reduced, and after the parade, the supply and demand of the black series are recovering. In the short term, the dual - coking market will mainly fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the downstream replenishment rhythm before the National Day [35]. - The steel spot market performs poorly, and the firmness of raw material prices erodes steel mill profits. Steel mills' willingness to lower coke prices is increasing. Coke prices are supported by coking coal costs at the bottom and restricted by steel mill profits at the top, and will fluctuate within a range [38].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for both the real estate and building materials sectors [2][4]. Core Insights - The "anti-involution" policies in the building materials sector are being implemented, leading to improved industry profitability [2]. - Recent policy adjustments in major cities like Shenzhen are expected to stimulate short-term market activity, although long-term recovery will depend on sales data and corporate performance [2][25]. - The cement industry is showing signs of recovery due to self-regulation and cost optimization, with expectations for further profit increases in the second half of 2025 [2][44]. - The glass and fiberglass sectors are experiencing weak supply-demand balance, but potential improvements in demand could lead to price recovery [2][45]. Summary by Sections Real Estate Sector - As of September 11, 2025, the Shenwan Real Estate Index has increased by 2.86% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.72 percentage points [11]. - The average price of new residential properties in 100 cities rose by 0.20% month-on-month and 2.73% year-on-year, while second-hand housing prices fell by 0.76% month-on-month and 7.34% year-on-year [23][25]. - Major real estate companies are facing continued pressure, with mid-year losses widening compared to the previous year [25]. - Recommended companies include Poly Developments (600048), Binjiang Group (002244), and China Merchants Shekou (001979) for their strong performance in first and second-tier cities [2][25]. Building Materials Sector - The Shenwan Building Materials Index has increased by 0.31% over the past two weeks, ranking 23rd among 31 sectors [26]. - The average price of cement is currently at 314 RMB/ton, with a slight decrease of 1 RMB/ton from the previous week [30]. - The glass industry is in a weak supply-demand balance, with limited price rebound potential in the short term, but a possible recovery as construction activity increases [45]. - Recommended companies in the cement sector include Conch Cement (600585), Taipai Group (002233), and Huaxin Cement (600801) for their solid fundamentals and attractive dividend yields [44][46].