首先，外部环境边际改善，国内市场风险偏好继续回升。近期国际局势有所好转，外部环境开始边 际改善。美联储降息预期较之前有所上升，推动全球资本市场总体反弹。国内市场风险偏好同样明显回 升，沪指上周创出年内新高，深圳成分指数亦有所反弹。展望后期，国内经济数据和上市公司的中报将 成为影响行情的重要影响因素，投资者宜根据最新信息，相机抉择。 风险提示：国际贸易、地缘冲突超出预期；上市公司业绩增速回落超预期；全球经济衰退超预期。 其次，两市震荡，成交略降。周一，两市小幅低开后，逐级向上反弹，沪指收盘于全天高点附近， 并收回五天均线。深圳成指继续反弹，近期表现强于沪市。两市量能 1.4 万亿元左右，较上周五有所下 降。微观结构上，全天个股涨多跌少，涨停股票数量较多。当天市场热点主要集中在国防军工和 TMT 行业。投资风格方面，中小盘和科技风格涨幅领先。 从市场运行节奏看，沪指突破五、六月份的震荡小箱体，重心上移一个台阶。沪指上周突破了五、 六月份来回震荡的小箱体，实现了重心的上移，并创出年内新高。当然，去年四季度的成交密集区仍有 较强技术阻力，在没有实质性利好信息的配合下，预计难以一蹴而就得向上突破。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Malaysian Ringgit has reached its highest level in nine months against the US dollar, driven by easing global trade tensions and a general weakness of the dollar [1] Group 1: Currency Performance - The Ringgit appreciated by 0.7% to 4.1805 against the US dollar, marking the highest level since October of the previous year [1] - The recent appreciation of the Ringgit reflects increased confidence in Malaysia's export-dependent economy due to signs of a resolution in the global trade war [1] Group 2: Trade Agreements - There are indications that trade agreements between the US and up to 12 major trading partners are expected to be finalized before the July 9 deadline, contributing to the rise of the Ringgit [1] Group 3: Dollar Weakness - The decline of the US dollar is attributed to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and concerns over the expanding US fiscal deficit [1]

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-黄金】欧盟决定将针对俄罗斯的制裁措施再延长6 个月，至2026年1月31日。相关措施覆盖俄罗斯贸易、金融、能 源、技术和军民两用产品等多个领域。评：关税谈判及相关制 裁一直存在，但是市场对其已经淡化，市场未来关注焦点是地 缘政治及美联储降息预期。美元指数再度走弱，提振黄金，黄 金短期上涨，但上涨动力有限，关注美元指数走势。黄金中期 震荡格局并未改变，短期震荡偏多，但上方空间有限。 【短评-甲醇】 江苏太仓甲醇市场价2790元/吨，下降30元 /吨；中国甲醇港口样本库存67.05万吨，周上升14.34%；甲醇 样本生产企业库存34.16万吨，周减少2.58万吨；样本企业订单 待发24.07万吨，周下降3.31万吨；甲醇开工91.31%，周上升 2.65%；下游总产能利用率75.57%，周下降0.2%。评：成本端煤 炭价格预期较稳，国内甲醇开工预期高位运行，下游需求较 稳，本周预计进口到货有所减量，港口或去库。内地甲醇市场 偏弱，企业竞拍成交一般，港口甲醇市场基差小幅走弱，整体 商谈成交一般。预计甲醇09合约短期震荡运行，上方压力2400 一线，建议空单谨慎持有。 投资咨询中心 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is experiencing a significant rally, with the S&P 500 index rising nearly 24% since mid-April, prompting discussions about the sustainability of this bull market [1] Group 1: Corporate Earnings Improvement - The primary driver for the continued rise in U.S. stocks is the improvement in corporate earnings, with recent upward revisions in earnings forecasts for S&P 500 constituents [3] - The breadth of earnings improvement is expanding beyond just technology giants, as indicated by the ERB indicator, which has rebounded from -25% in mid-April to -5% currently [3] - Historical data suggests that such turning points often signal a strong return outlook for the market, with large-cap quality stocks benefiting first, followed by small-cap and lower-quality stocks [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Expectations - A shift in expectations regarding Federal Reserve monetary policy is the second catalyst supporting the rise in U.S. stocks, with predictions of up to seven interest rate cuts by 2026 [4] - The market tends to react proactively to anticipated changes in monetary policy rather than waiting for explicit signals [4] - While there are risks associated with rising unemployment potentially disrupting market optimism, this scenario is not included in Morgan Stanley's baseline forecast [4] Group 3: Market Resilience to External Shocks - The strong resilience of the U.S. stock market in absorbing external shocks is the third pillar supporting its future performance, mirroring historical trends following geopolitical conflicts [5] - The easing tensions between Iran and Israel and the subsequent decline in international oil prices have reduced energy cost threats to the economic cycle [5] - The potential removal of "retaliatory tariffs" from tax reform legislation is expected to boost market confidence, alongside a decrease in the yield premium on U.S. Treasuries, indicating alleviated concerns about U.S. fiscal health [5] - Morgan Stanley maintains a target of 6,500 points for the S&P 500 index over the next 12 months, provided that the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.5% [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Cotton prices are expected to oscillate at high levels in the short term, with a high risk of chasing the upward trend. Short - selling at high levels can be attempted [3][4] - The A - share market is expected to continue to rise in a volatile manner this week [7] - Gold is still bullish in the long - term, and it is likely to restart the upward trend after adjusting to an important support level [11][12] - Iron ore should be viewed with an oscillatory mindset. The over - valuation risk is increased due to weak reality [15][16] - Glass should be viewed with an oscillatory mindset, waiting for the effect of real - estate stimulus or major policy announcements [18][19] - Soybean oil is expected to oscillate or strengthen in the short term but is in a mid - term seasonal production and inventory increase period. Short - selling at a light position can be considered when the price reaches the previous high pressure area of 8050 - 8000 [21] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - Recently, cotton futures have risen for five consecutive days. On June 30, the morning session was strong with a nearly 1% increase, but the price turned down near the close [3] - From the supply side, there is an expected increase in global cotton production, the old - crop inventory is being depleted rapidly and at a low level, and the expected additional sliding - scale quota may be small, leading to an expectation of tight inventory at the end of the year [3] - From the demand side, although there were positive signs in China's textile and clothing exports in May, commercial inventory is decreasing, and there is rigid restocking demand, the overall demand is sluggish [3] - The cooling of the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, the weakening of the external market, and the decline in international crude oil prices have increased the substitution cost of chemical fibers, dragging down cotton prices [3] A - share Market - On Monday this week, the three major A - share indices opened lower and closed higher with a mid -阳线. The June manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, better than expected, which is further positive for A - shares [7][8] Gold - The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates in the meeting has reduced the expectation of an interest - rate cut this year, causing gold to adjust. However, the long - term bullish trend remains unchanged [12] Iron Ore - Supply has increased month - on - month, pig iron production has weakened seasonally, and port inventory has started to accumulate again. The weak reality has increased the over - valuation risk of iron ore [16] Glass - There has been no significant cold - repair situation due to losses on the supply side, factory inventory remains high, the restocking motivation of downstream deep - processing orders is weak, and demand has not increased significantly [19] Soybean Oil - Due to the long - term expectation of the US biodiesel policy and the uncertain situation in the Middle East, soybean oil is expected to oscillate or strengthen in the short term. However, the current supply - demand situation is not tight, and it is in a mid - term seasonal production and inventory increase period [21]

受美联储降息预期支撑 黄金在亚洲早盘小幅走高 金十数据7月1日讯，受美联储降息预期支撑，黄金在亚洲早盘小幅走高。Kudotrade分析师Konstantinos Chrysikos表示："在收益率低迷和鸽派预期的背景下，黄金可能获得支撑。市场预计美国今年下半年将 实施三次降息，这可能为黄金等非生息资产提供支撑。" Chrysikos补充道，对美联储独立性的担忧也可 能推动投资者转向贵金属。 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the rising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which is influencing market dynamics and trading signals in the gold order flow [1] Group 1 - The anticipation of interest rate cuts is leading to increased volatility in the market, with both bullish and bearish sentiments competing [1] - The analysis of order flow is highlighted as a method to capture trading signals amidst this volatility [1]

SHMET 网讯： 6月国内精炼锌库存先增后降，处于往年同期偏低位，交割前后上期所锌仓单量有所累积，整体重心较5月有升，上周上期所锌库存43633吨，仓单量6372 吨；截止6月26日，SMM七地锌锭社库7.95万吨，短期内变化不大。6月中旬，各地锌锭现货升水还偏强，近日却是快速回落的态势，锌价快速走高，下游 畏高慎采，贸易商为出货而下调升水。LME锌库存延续4月底以来的降势，由4月中的高位19.5万吨降至最新的11.9万吨，注册仓单在6月中旬有一次攀升， 最新为9.1万吨，总体水平略偏低；关键指标LME0-3锌现货由前期持续小幅贴水已收复至平水附近，谨防出现类似于铜的挤仓风险。 据ILZSG最新报告，今年4月全球锌矿产量101.92万吨，环比微降0.6%，同比增加9.7%；1-4月累计产量393.7万吨，累计同比增长5.07%。一季度，海外矿山 稳步释放产量，Tara矿复产、Kipushi重启均同比有增量，Antamina矿产量虽同比小降但年度指导目标明显提升，还有OZ矿贡献增量。国内，5月SMM锌精 矿产量环比增长9.2%至32.5万吨，季节性恢复中，1-5月累计产量139.84万吨，同比下降3.4%。进 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. In the financial futures and options market, both stock index futures and treasury bond futures are expected to be strong in the short and medium - term. In the commodity futures and options market, different metals and energy materials, as well as agricultural products, have their own unique supply - demand and price trends [1][2][4]. Summary by Category Financial Futures and Options Stock Index Futures (IF, IH, IC, IM) - **Day - to - day view**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias [1] - **Medium - term view**: Bullish [1] - **Reference strategy**: Hold short MO2507 - P - 5800 out - of - the - money put options and IM2507 long positions [1] - **Core logic**: Positive sentiment in the equity market due to Sino - US communication and policy support, and the potential rise of the science and technology sector [1] Treasury Bond Futures (TS, TF, T, TL) - **Day - to - day view**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias [2] - **Medium - term view**: Bullish [2] - **Reference strategy**: Hold T2509 or TL2509 long positions [3] - **Core logic**: Weak domestic fundamentals strengthen policy expectations, and the central bank's continued net investment affects the capital market [3] Commodity Futures and Options Metal and New Energy Materials - **Copper** - **Day - to - day view**: Price range from 79,200 to 81,000 [4] - **Medium - term view**: Price range from 60,000 to 90,000 [4] - **Reference strategy**: Adopt an oscillating and slightly upward trading idea, buy call options [4] - **Core logic**: The "Big and Beautiful" bill in the US, supply shortages, and changes in international demand and inventory levels affect copper prices [4] - **Industrial Silicon** - **Day - to - day view**: Run with a slight upward bias, price range from 8,000 to 8,100 [5] - **Medium - term view**: Face downward pressure, price range from 7,000 to 9,000 [5] - **Reference strategy**: Hold short SI2508 - C - 9000 until expiration, short futures on rallies [5] - **Core logic**: Decreased supply and demand, and high inventory levels [5] - **Polysilicon** - **Day - to - day view**: Run with a slight upward bias, price range from 33,000 to 35,000 [7] - **Medium - term view**: Trade at a low level, price range from 28,000 to 38,000 [7] - **Reference strategy**: Hold short PS2508 - C - 45000 until expiration [7] - **Core logic**: Decreased supply and demand, and high inventory levels [7] - **Aluminum** - **Day - to - day view**: Run with a slight upward bias, price range from 20,400 to 20,700 [9] - **Medium - term view**: Trade at a high level, price range from 19,200 to 21,000 [9] - **Reference strategy**: Sell AL2508 - P - 19300 [9] - **Core logic**: Limited supply increase, low inventory, good performance in the automotive market, and the overall rise of non - ferrous metals [9] - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Day - to - day view**: Run with a slight upward bias, price range from 63,000 to 65,000 [11] - **Medium - term view**: Cost support weakens, prices decline steadily, price range from 56,000 to 68,000 [11] - **Reference strategy**: Short futures on rallies, sell LC2508 - C - 83000 [11] - **Core logic**: Low spot prices, large supply, and high inventory levels [11] Black and Building Materials - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil** - **Day - to - day view**: Downward pressure weakens [14] - **Medium - term view**: Stop falling and stabilize [14] - **Reference strategy**: Exit the strategy of selling call options and buying put options on RB2510, sell out - of - the - money put options on rebar RB2510 [14] - **Core logic**: Potential relief of raw material inventory pressure and changes in supply and demand [14] Livestock, Poultry, and Soft Commodities - **Hogs** - **Day - to - day view**: Run with a slight upward bias [17] - **Medium - term view**: Rebound temporarily and then maintain a weak trend [17] - **Reference strategy**: Short on rallies [17] - **Core logic**: Changes in supply and demand, with supply remaining abundant and demand weak [17] - **Sugar** - **Day - to - day view**: Oscillate weakly [19] - **Medium - term view**: Rise first and then fall [19] - **Reference strategy**: Short on rallies [19] - **Core logic**: Global supply surplus expectations and domestic supply - demand and import situations [19] - **Protein Meal** - **Day - to - day view**: Soybean meal 2509 oscillates in the range of [2,900, 3,000] [22] - **Medium - term view**: Soybean meal 2509 builds a bottom in the range of [2,900, 3,100] [22] - **Reference strategy**: Sell out - of - the - money put options on soybean meal 2508 - P - 2850 [22] - **Core logic**: Uncertainty in the weather of US soybean and Canadian rapeseed growing areas, and changes in international and domestic soybean and rapeseed markets [22] Energy and Chemicals - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)** - **Day - to - day view**: Oscillate within a range [25] - **Medium - term view**: Face downward pressure [25] - **Reference strategy**: Hold short out - of - the - money call options on PG2508 [25] - **Core logic**: Changes in supply, demand, and cost factors [25] - **PVC** - **Day - to - day view**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias [28] - **Medium - term view**: Limited upside potential [28] - **Reference strategy**: Continue to hold the strategy of selling out - of - the - money call options on PVC [28] - **Core logic**: Changes in cost, supply, demand, and inventory levels [28]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic precious metal futures experienced a decline, while international precious metals saw an increase in prices, indicating a divergence in market trends [1][2]. Price Movements - As of June 30, the main contract for Shanghai gold was priced at 767.58 CNY per gram, reflecting a decrease of 0.63% - The main contract for Shanghai silver was priced at 768.58 CNY per kilogram, with a decline of 0.54% - In contrast, COMEX gold was priced at 3306.10 USD per ounce, marking an increase of 0.61% - COMEX silver reached 36.44 USD per ounce, up by 0.75% [1][2]. Market Expectations - Weak U.S. economic data has heightened market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, with a 92.5% probability of a cut in September, and an anticipated total reduction of 65-75 basis points for the year [3]. - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that more time is needed to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation, while consumer confidence data showed a decline in inflation expectations, further supporting rate cut speculation [4]. Recent Trends - Last week, COMEX gold prices fell by 2.90% to 3286.10 USD per ounce, while Shanghai gold futures dropped by 1.50% to 768.64 CNY per gram - The probability of maintaining interest rates in July is at 81.9%, with an 18.1% chance of a 25 basis point cut, and a cumulative 76% probability of a total cut of 25 basis points by September [5].