Group 1 - The report highlights the "stock-bond seesaw" effect, indicating that historically, stock and bond markets tend to move in opposite directions, although this negative correlation has weakened during periods of significant liquidity changes [3][4] - Current disturbances in the bond market are attributed to economic data fluctuations, accelerated special bond issuance, and evolving real estate policy expectations, suggesting that bond market rates may face certain pressures [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring economic data and policy developments to identify further opportunities for bond market investments [4] Group 2 - The overseas pension asset allocation strategies are categorized into asset management and asset-liability management types, with the latter focusing on ensuring long-term fund stability by considering payment pressures [5][7] - Notable pension funds such as GPIF, GPFG, and CPP utilize different strategies for asset allocation, with GPIF adopting a passive investment approach based on indices, while GPFG adjusts standard indices for active investment [5][6] - The report discusses the dynamic liability-driven investment (LDI) approach recommended by PGIM, which emphasizes flexibility in responding to market changes and aligning with retirees' spending preferences [7][8] Group 3 - The company Feirongda is projected to achieve a revenue of 2.886 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 33.06%, with net profit expected to increase by 103.95% to 123.69% [9][10] - The growth is driven by strong performance in the consumer electronics, communication, and new energy vehicle sectors, with significant contributions from key clients and market recovery [10][11] - The company has established a strong position in the liquid cooling solutions market for AI servers, with its 3D VC liquid cooling module recognized by leading AI server manufacturers [12][13] Group 4 - The report notes rising prices for potassium fertilizer, glyphosate, and organic silicon, indicating potential investment opportunities due to expected mid-year performance increases [15][23] - The chemical industry is experiencing a tightening supply of phosphorus ore, with demand expected to grow due to the increasing need for phosphate fertilizers and lithium iron phosphate batteries [17][19] - The report identifies key opportunities in the chemical sector, including low-cost expansion and improving market conditions for chromium salts and phosphorus ore [19][20]

Macro Strategy - The "Great Beautiful Act" has been quickly implemented, but its distribution effects and the tightening fiscal impact from excluding extended and expanded tax cuts limit its growth stimulus for the US economy [1][24] - The act's characteristic of "increasing deficits first, reducing deficits later" implies a risk of a "fiscal cliff" around 2028 [1][24] - In the short term, concerns about the impact of US Treasury issuance on market liquidity and yield premiums are not excessive; however, the long-term path dependency of unsustainable US government debt makes it difficult for Treasury yield premiums to decrease [1][24] Fixed Income - The "stock-bond seesaw" effect is evident as the stock market stabilizes, influencing bond yields; the 10-year government bond yield rose from 1.641% to 1.666% during the week [3][5] - The bond market's reaction to Trump's threats of additional tariffs on BRICS countries was muted, indicating a limited impact on bond yields [3][5] - The bond yield's upward trend is expected to continue, influenced by stock market performance, but the extent of the increase is likely to be limited [5] Industry Insights - Wanda Film's diversified layout in esports and concert live streaming is expected to create new growth points, with net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 1.0 billion, 1.24 billion, and 1.44 billion yuan, respectively [8] - Lianlian Digital is projected to achieve a reasonable P/S valuation of 8.0x and 7.0x for 2025 and 2026, respectively, as it continues to expand its business [10] - Youyou Foods has revised its profit forecast upwards, expecting net profits of 232 million, 285 million, and 329 million yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting a growth rate of 47.2%, 23.2%, and 15.3% [11] - Siyi Electric's net profit for the first half of 2025 is expected to be 1.293 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46%, driven by strong overseas orders [14][15] - The energy sector, represented by Furan Energy, anticipates stable growth in natural gas supply and a steady increase in new energy business, with net profit forecasts of 872 million, 922 million, and 976 million yuan for 2025-2027 [12] - The lithium battery sector, represented by Weilan Lithium Core, has revised its profit expectations upwards, forecasting net profits of 750 million, 1 billion, and 1.31 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting significant growth [13] - The pharmaceutical sector, represented by Lianbang Pharmaceutical, is expected to see revenue growth driven by innovative drug development, with net profits projected at 3.11 billion, 3.10 billion, and 3.38 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [21]

报告导读： 股债跷跷板调节下，现券 - 资金利差或趋于走阔。 近期股债跷跷板效应显著，对债市形成较大的扰动，印证了我们此前在报告《新式股债跷跷板，债市无近 忧有"中虑"》的判断与提示，但与此同时，当前的股债跷跷板有以下三个特征需要注意： 其一、当前股 债涨跌并非完全对称， 7 月以来股市涨幅最大的 7 月 8 日（周二），债市虽然表现弱势但跌幅相对可 控，而在周四、周五股市涨势略有收缩时，债市跌幅反而进一步扩大； 其二，后半周债市在盘中的利率上 行，也是资金（存单利率）相对收紧的共同作用的结果，并非单纯的"股债跷跷板"，股债跷跷板可能需要 通过资金波动的"乘数效应"才能发挥出作用；其三，当前股债的背离的底层机制或仍然是资金在金融股与 债券之间的"高低切换"，而非估值模型分子端"现金流"效应 。 进一步分析，当前股债跷跷板实质上的作用或是"债券资产间 / 债券 - 资金间比价的调节变量"，而非直 接影响国债利率，具体体现在调节资金利率与国债利率关系、长债与权益资产关系、低利率下债市定价逻 辑变化三方面： ①调节国债利率与资金利率利差，或将走扩。即股市持续强势下股债性价比逆转，投机资 金和边际定价力量逐步流失，债 ...

Investment Insights - The bond market experienced a slight decline last week, with the China Bond Composite Wealth Index (CBA00201) down by 0.08% and the China Bond Composite Full Price Index (CBA00203) down by 0.11% [2][12] - Short-term interest rates increased significantly, with 1-year, 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year government bond yields rising by 3.42 basis points, 3.26 basis points, 3.44 basis points, and 2.09 basis points respectively [12] - Credit bond yields mostly increased, leading to an overall compression of credit spreads [12] Market Observations - The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 226.5 billion yuan, tightening the liquidity marginally [13] - New tariff negotiations have raised U.S. Treasury yields, with concerns about inflation impacting market sentiment [14] - The REITs secondary market saw a significant correction, with the CSI REITs Total Return Index dropping by 1.12% [15] Public Fund Market Dynamics - Penghua Fund announced the transformation of its Penghua Qianhai Vanke REIT into an open-end bond fund after its ten-year closed operation period ended [16] - This REIT was the first publicly offered REIT product in China, providing critical practical experience for the development of the C-REITS market [16][17] Fund Performance Tracking - Short-term bond fund index rose by 0.01% last week, with a cumulative return of 4.03% since inception [3][19] - Medium to long-term bond fund index fell by 0.12%, with a cumulative return of 6.56% since inception [4][19] - REITs fund index decreased by 2.28%, but has a cumulative return of 37.20% since inception [10][19]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a fixed - income report released on July 14, 2025 [1] - Analysts are Liang Weichao and Li Shukai [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - In the second week of July, the bond market entered a consolidation phase. Credit bonds declined less than interest - rate bonds. After the adjustment, the short - term participation window for ultra - long - term bonds has likely passed, and the 3 - 5 - year weak - quality riding strategy may offer better cost - effectiveness. Also, 1 - 2 - year short - duration sinking is a good choice [3][5][30] Group 4: Market Performance Summary Overall Bond Market - In the week from July 7 to July 11, 2025, due to multiple negative factors, the "stock - bond seesaw" effect was in play, with the equity market strengthening and interest - rate bonds weakening. Credit bonds followed the trend of interest - rate bonds but declined less [3][10] Yield Changes of Major Bond Types - For Treasury bonds, the 1Y, 2Y, 3Y, 4Y, and 5Y maturity yields increased by 3.40BP, 4.61BP, 3.67BP, 3.58BP, and 3.63BP respectively. For AAA medium - and short - term notes, the yields changed by - 0.58BP, 1.46BP, 3.34BP, 3.59BP, and 3.87BP respectively; for AA+ medium - and short - term notes, they changed by - 1.58BP, 0.46BP, 1.34BP, 4.59BP, and 2.87BP respectively [10][12] Ultra - long - term Credit Bonds - Ultra - long - term credit bonds were also adjusted. The adjustment of urban investment ultra - long - term bonds was the highest. Only AA+ 10Y medium - term notes performed well with a continued decline in valuation yield. AAA/AA+ 10Y medium - term note yields increased by 2.62BP and decreased by 1.38BP respectively. AAA/AA+ 10Y urban investment yields increased by 3.36BP and 4.36BP respectively, while the 10Y Treasury bond yield only increased by 2.20BP [3][11] Perpetual and Secondary Bonds (Er Yong Bonds) - The market of Er Yong bonds weakened and showed the characteristic of a "volatility amplifier". The decline of those with a maturity of less than 5Y was greater than that of general credit bonds of the same maturity, and the decline of those with a maturity of 7Y and above slightly exceeded that of ultra - long - term credit bonds. The yields of 1 - 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y AAA - bank secondary capital bonds increased by 3.94BP, 5.14BP, 5.79BP, 5.32BP, 5.44BP, 4.35BP, and 4.78BP respectively [4][17] Group 5: Market Feature Analysis Curve Shape - The steepness of the 1 - 2Y for all ratings and 3 - 5Y for low - ratings was the highest, but it was slightly lower compared to the end of May, and the 1 - year segment remained relatively flat [13] Historical Quantiles - The ticket - coupon value of credit bonds remained low. In terms of credit spreads, there may be opportunities for participation in the 3Y - 5Y segment. The yields of 1Y - AAA, 3Y - AAA, etc. were at relatively low levels since 2024, and after a week of adjustment, the short - end 1Y still had no cost - effectiveness, while the protection of 3Y - 5Y was enhanced [15] Active Trading - The trading sentiment of Er Yong bonds was relatively weak. The proportion of low - valuation transactions from July 7 to July 11 was 100.00%, 2.44%, 46.34%, 100.00%, 80.49% respectively, and the average trading durations were 5.90 years, 0.59 years, 2.14 years, 6.25 years, 4.02 years respectively. The trading margin of Er Yong bonds below the valuation was small, generally within 3BP; the discount trading margin was also small, generally within 2BP [19][20][22] Ultra - long - term Credit Bonds - Institutions' willingness to sell ultra - long - term credit bonds increased significantly compared to the previous week. The proportion of discount transactions was 2.44%, 85.37%, 70.73%, 95.12%, 60.98% respectively, and the discount margin was mostly within 3BP. The market's willingness to buy ultra - long - term credit bonds weakened, and the trading focus returned to the 3 - 5 - year riding transactions of low - quality urban investment bonds. Although the market adjusted, institutions' willingness to buy was still strong, with about 45% of the transactions below the valuation having a margin of 4BP or more [5][25][26]

国债期货震荡偏空，关注政治局会议 摘 要： 由于 A 股强劲反弹，股债跷跷板使得债市有效跌破 60 日均线， 后续债市或进入趋势性空头行情。目前经济基本面依然具有韧性， 但是持续复苏的动力不强，市场关注 7 月政治局会议是否会有增量 政策出台，如果有增量政策出台，那么债市空头行情或进一步得到 确立，目前股债跷跷板依然是债市主要逻辑。 6 月份，我国制造业、非制造业和综合 PMI 分别为 49.7%、50.5% 和 50.7%，比上月上升 0.2、0.2 和 0.3 个百分点，三大指数均有所 回升。6 月财新中国制造业 PMI 录得 50.4，高于 5 月 2.1 个百分点， 与 4 月持平，重回临界点以上。新订单指数反弹至略高于临界点水 平。生产指数亦重回扩张区间，创近七个月来新高。但是 6 月财新 中国服务业 PMI 录得 50.6，较 5 月回落 0.5 个百分点，下行至 2024 年四季度以来最低。6 月综合 PMI 产出指数反弹 1.7 个百分点至 51.3。经济数据好坏参半，但整体表现出一定的韧性。 今年上半年，各地发行用于置换存量隐性债务的置换债近 1.8 万亿元，总体呈现早发、快发的特点。同时， ...

Market Overview - The equity market has shown a strong upward trend, achieving a weekly three consecutive gains[1] - A-shares continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index successfully surpassing 3500 points, boosting investor confidence[2] - The bond market experienced a downward trend, pressured by the strong performance of the equity market[3] Equity Market Insights - Financial sectors, including banks, securities, and real estate, have taken the lead in driving market growth, especially as the technology sector faced short-term setbacks[2] - The current market environment is characterized by uncertainty due to global trade tensions, particularly with the U.S. threatening to impose tariffs[2] - Short-term strategies suggest maintaining a balanced approach, holding both technology and financial sectors while considering service-oriented consumption[14] Bond Market Analysis - The bond market has shown a flat performance with an overall decline, influenced by the strong equity market which has limited upward potential for bonds[3] - Despite the short-term fluctuations, the overall liquidity remains loose, benefiting short-term bonds[5] Commodity Market Overview - Major commodities like oil and gold have shown lackluster performance, with the market remaining in a low-level oscillation phase[6] - The geopolitical situation and abundant oil supply continue to impact the global oil market negatively, while gold remains stable due to a weakening dollar[6] Investment Recommendations - For the equity market, it is recommended to focus on the financial sector for short-term gains while keeping an eye on the dual innovation sectors for long-term growth[14] - In the commodity market, maintaining a position in gold is advised for the short term, with a watchful eye on market developments for the long term[40]

上周，债券市场经历了一系列的调整波动。尽管股市的人气效应对债市资金产生了一定的吸引力，但业内人士普遍持有短期震荡的观点，依然看好债市的投 资前景。 近期，债券基金领域出现了一些引人注目的现象：不少债基出现大额赎回的情况。而改善目前债券资产供应的难点依然存在，存量债券价格不断被炒高，性 价比偏低。 市场风险偏好抬升，债市短期承压 上周（7月7日~7月13日），债市再次出现调整，体现在债券的价格下降，利率整体上行。十年国债利率从周初1.6425%抬升至1.666%，一年期国股大行存单 发行利率从1.59%升至1.62%。 上周纯债基金收益欠佳，多只产品被大额赎回 从基金的表现来看，上周中长期纯债基金、短债基金表现并不太理想，平均收益率均呈现负数。虽然有前述债市调整的缘故，但投资者情绪的确不高。 Wind统计显示，上周表现最好的纯债基金为淳厚稳荣一年定开，单周收益率达到0.40%，也是纯债基金当中业绩最好的一只。博时裕昂纯债A、创金合信创 和一个月A、圆信永丰兴瑞6个月等基金产品上周业绩排名也靠前。 其实，债市的调整既来自收益率的变化，也来自债券价格的变化。从收益率的角度来说，收益率下降意味着资金配置债券的需求增加 ...

新华财经北京7月14日电（王菁）债市周一（7月14日）延续弱势整理，国债期货主力全线收跌，银行间 现券收益率仍小幅回升；公开市场单日净投放1197亿元，短端资金品种显著上行。 机构认为，上周受"股债跷跷板"行情影响债市情绪有所受挫，但波动幅度尚在可控范围内，跨季后债券 配置需求依然偏强。 【行情跟踪】 国债期货收盘全线下跌，30年期主力合约跌0.18%报120.290，10年期主力合约跌0.08%报108.730，5年 期主力合约跌0.05%报105.920，2年期主力合约跌0.03%报102.380。 银行间主要利率债收益率普遍小幅上行，截至发稿，10年期国开债"25国开10"收益率上行0.75BP至 1.75%，10年期国债"25附息国债11"收益率上行0.5BP至1.671%，30年期国债"25超长特别国债02"收益率 上行0.75BP至1.8835%。 中证转债指数收盘跌0.42%，15只可转债跌幅超2%，惠城转债、汇通转债、志特转债、天源转债、金诚 转债跌幅居前，分别跌8.14%、4.26%、3.35%、3.02%、2.85%。涨幅方面，22只可转债涨幅超2%，锡 振转债、博汇转债、金铜转债、欧通转 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【 短 评 - 螺 纹 钢 】 Mysteel 调 研 247 家 钢 厂 高 炉 开 工 率 83.15%，环比上周减少0.31个百分点；高炉炼铁产能利用率 89.9%，环比上周减少0.39个百分点；钢厂盈利率59.74%，环比 上周增加0.43个百分点；日均铁水产量239.81万吨，环比上周 减少1.04万吨。评：反内卷情绪继续发酵，发改委提到加快新 型城镇化，市场对于棚改重启的预期升温，市场情绪表现积 极。淡季深入，降雨高温天气影响不断，螺纹需求回落，库存 延续去化。淡季基本面矛盾并不明显，"反内卷"政策叠加山 西限产消息形成的供给侧收缩预期，以及"城市更新"等需求 侧改善预期共同推动，宏观情绪升温，预计短期盘面表现震荡 偏强运行。 【短评-原油】IEA在月报：今年全球石油供应量较之前的 预测增加30万桶/日至210万桶/日。但近期石油需求显著放缓， 将2025年平均石油需求增长预期下调至70.4万桶/日，将2026年 平均石油需求增长预期下调至72.2万桶/日；贝克休斯公布的数 据显示，截止7月11日的一周，美国在线钻探油井数量424座， 比前周减少1座，为2021年9月份 ...