Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Mid - and long - term bond bull market may still be expected, but in the short term, due to the phase - out results of Sino - US tariff negotiations and the release of interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cut benefits, the market risk - aversion sentiment has cooled significantly, and the bond market has weakened in a volatile manner. Considering the obvious short - term differentiation in the market, there may be no high - quality trading opportunities in the short term, and attention should be paid to the risk of long - end bond price correction [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market - **Closing Prices and Volumes**: T, TF, and TS main contracts' closing prices increased by 0.01%, 0.01%, and 0% respectively, while TL main contract decreased by 0.12%. T, TF, TS main contracts' trading volumes increased by 12458, 4789, and 4013 respectively, while TL main contract decreased by 5858 [2] - **Price Spreads**: Some price spreads increased, such as TL2509 - 2506 (+0.09), T06 - TL06 (+0.18), TF06 - T06 (+0.01), and TS06 - T06 (+0.00); some decreased, like T2509 - 2506 (-0.01), TF2509 - 2506 (-0.03), TS2509 - 2506 (-0.00), and TS06 - TF06 (-0.01) [2] - **Open Interest**: T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts' open interests decreased by 5054, 6486, 3050, and 3764 respectively. The net short positions of T, TF, TS, and TL among the top 20 changed by 0, - 1238, - 685, and +980 respectively [2] 2. CTD Bonds - The net prices of some CTD bonds decreased, such as 220010.IB (-0.0199), 250007.IB (-0.2800), 200012.IB (-0.1172), and 210005.IB (-0.0029); some increased, like 240020.IB (+0.0207), 220027.IB (+0.0535), 250006.IB (+0.0005), and 240010.IB (0) [2] 3. Active Treasury Bonds - Yields of 1 - 7Y active treasury bonds decreased by about 0.5bp, while 10Y increased by 0.8bp [2] 4. Short - term Interest Rates - Some short - term interest rates increased, such as silver - pledged overnight (+9.72bp), Shibor 14 - day (+0.90bp); some decreased, like Shibor overnight (-4.40bp), silver - pledged 7 - day (-4.17bp), and Shibor 7 - day (-2.60bp) [2] 5. Industry News - The central bank governor chaired a symposium on financial support for the real economy, emphasizing the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy. The latest LPR decreased by 10bp, and major banks cut deposit interest rates [2] 6. Market Performance - On Thursday, the yields of treasury bonds showed a short - strong and long - weak pattern. Treasury bond futures also showed a similar pattern. The central bank had a net injection, and the weighted average DR007 rate rebounded [2] 7. Fundamental Analysis - In April, domestic economic data was stable, with social retail sales slightly falling, fixed - asset investment shrinking, and industrial added - value exceeding expectations. Financial data was divided, and price data showed that core inflation improved but industrial prices were weak. Overseas, the US economic data in April was mixed, and the market expected the Fed to postpone interest rate cuts to July [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the asymmetric interest rate cuts benefiting the bond market, particularly highlighting the significant growth of the 10-year government bond ETF (511260) by over 30% this year [1] - According to China International Capital Corporation (CICC), the downward adjustment of deposit rates creates more room for long-term interest rate declines, which is favorable for the bond market [1] - The decline in deposit rates is expected to lead to lower rates in other cash-like instruments, which will help reduce banks' funding costs and further support the downward trend in actual interest rates [1] Group 2 - The 10-year government bond ETF (511260), established on August 4, 2017, is currently the only 10-year government bond ETF in the market, with a scale exceeding 3.4 billion yuan and good liquidity [1] - Investors are advised to actively allocate to Chinese bonds, including extending duration to seek higher capital gains as the yield curve steepens [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustments in LPR and deposit rates indicate a significant shift in monetary policy, which is expected to impact the bond market and investment strategies in the near future [2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of May 22, 2025, the 30-year Treasury ETF (511090) increased by 0.03%, with the latest price at 123.38 yuan [1]. - The trading volume for the 30-year Treasury ETF reached 17.79 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 9.93% [1]. - The latest scale of the 30-year Treasury ETF hit 17.875 billion yuan, marking a new high for the past month [1]. - The number of shares for the 30-year Treasury ETF reached 14.5 million, also a new high for the past month [1]. - The net inflow of funds into the 30-year Treasury ETF was 164 million yuan, with a total of 456 million yuan net inflow over the last five trading days [1]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Impact - The recent LPR adjustments show a decrease of 10 basis points, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5% [1]. - Major state-owned banks have lowered deposit rates, initiating a new round of rate cuts, with the current demand deposit rate at 0.05% [1]. - The market anticipates that the next window for monetary easing may not occur until the third quarter, depending on domestic demand and trade negotiations [2]. Group 3: Bond Market Outlook - Following the recent monetary policy changes, the central rate of funding has decreased, but bond market rates have shown volatility [2]. - If deposit rate cuts lead to a short-term easing of funds, there may be further downward movement in bond yields, with the 10-year Treasury potentially approaching 1.6% [2]. - The 30-year Treasury ETF closely tracks the China Bond 30-Year Treasury Index, which serves as a benchmark for this category of bonds [2][3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the bond market is experiencing slight fluctuations, with the 10-year main contract showing a minor increase of 0.03% while overall yields on major interbank bonds are rising by approximately 1 basis point [1] - The central bank has increased its net reverse repurchase operations, leading to a positive sentiment in the short-term funding market, despite upcoming tax payments. Future MLF operations are expected to stabilize funding expectations [1] - Major banks have lowered deposit rates and the May LPR, which initially caused the 10-year bond yield to drop to 1.65% before rebounding. This suggests that the bond market may have anticipated these changes, leading to profit-taking by some institutions [1] Group 2 - The recent trading activity of the government bond ETF (511520) has been robust, with transaction amounts exceeding 100 billion for three consecutive days, and over 14 billion on the last day. This ETF is the largest in the market and the only long-duration government bond ETF available [1] - The ETF has a duration of approximately 7.5 years and offers good liquidity, making it suitable for clients looking to extend duration easily. It serves as an effective tool for both trading and allocation in the bond market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market experienced slight weakness with the first LPR reduction of the year, leading to a potential observation period for policy effectiveness and possible increased liquidity supply from the central bank [1][5] Market Performance - Government bond futures mostly declined, with the 30-year main contract down 0.03% and the 10-year main contract up 0.03% [2] - The interbank major interest rate bond yields mostly rose, with the 10-year government bond yield increasing by 0.75 basis points to 1.6625% [2] Overseas Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields fell, with the 2-year yield at 3.97% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields rose significantly, with the 30-year yield reaching a new high of 3.1% [3] - In the Eurozone, the 10-year French bond yield decreased by 0.4 basis points to 3.256% [3] Primary Market Activity - The China Development Bank's financial bonds had lower winning yields than market estimates, with 5-year and 10-year yields at 1.5195% and 1.6495%, respectively [4] - Local government bonds in Heilongjiang showed strong demand, with bid multiples exceeding 23 times [4] Liquidity and Monetary Policy - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 3570 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 1770 billion yuan [5] - The LPR was lowered by 10 basis points for both 1-year and 5-year terms, which is expected to reduce financing costs for enterprises and residents [5] Institutional Perspectives - Huatai Fixed Income suggests that the 10-year government bond yield may fluctuate between 1.6% and 1.8%, advocating for a strategy of increasing holdings during adjustments [7] - Citic Fixed Income notes that the average weighted loan interest rate has dropped to a historical low of 3.75%, with expectations for further declines following the LPR cut [8]

4 月经济运行总体保持平稳；资金面收敛态势有所缓解，债市明显回暖 【内容摘要】5 月 19 日，央行公开市场继续净投放，资金面收敛态势有所缓解；债市明显回 暖；转债市场主要指数集体收涨，转债个券多数上涨；各期限美债收益率走势分化，主要欧洲 经济体 10 年期国债收益率走势分化。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【4 月份经济运行保持总体平稳】国家统计局 5 月 19 日发布的数据显示，4 月全国规模以上 工业增加值同比增长 6.1%，社会消费品零售总额同比增长 5.1%。1-4 月，全国固定资产投资 （不含农户）同比增长 4.0%。国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖表示，4 月份，我国经济运行保持 总体平稳。面对外部冲击，我国经济能够顶住压力稳定增长，既得益于我国经济基础稳、优势 多、韧性强、潜能大，也得益于宏观政策协同发力、各方面积极应变，更是坚定不移推动高质 量发展、加快构建新发展格局的结果。 【4 月 70 大中城市中有 22 城新建商品住宅价格环比上涨】5 月 19 日，国家统计局公布数据 显示，中国 4 月 70 大中城市中有 22 城新建商品住宅价格环比上涨，3 月为 24 城；其中，上 海、大连涨幅 0. ...

Group 1 - The company bond ETF (511030) has seen a recent increase of 0.03%, with the latest price at 105.72 yuan, and a cumulative increase of 1.09% over the past six months [1] - The latest scale of the company bond ETF reached 14.066 billion yuan, marking a new high in nearly one year [1] - The latest share count for the company bond ETF is 133 million shares, also a new high in nearly one month [1] Group 2 - The company bond ETF has experienced continuous net inflows over the past four days, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 263 million yuan, totaling 390 million yuan, averaging 97.48 million yuan per day [2] - Major banks in China, including China Construction Bank and China Merchants Bank, have announced a reduction in RMB deposit rates, with the one-year fixed deposit rate dropping below 1% to 0.95% [2] Group 3 - Industry insiders suggest that since the fourth quarter of 2024, due to debt repayment and large banks lowering deposit rates, the interest margin for small and medium-sized banks has significantly increased, indicating a higher necessity for interest rate cuts [3] - Huashan Securities believes that the bond market sentiment has shifted from "bullish but not buying" to a partial bullish "loosening" phase, with short-term trading focusing on loose monetary policy and fundamentals [3] Group 4 - The national debt ETF for 5 to 10 years (511020) has increased by 0.10%, with the latest price at 117.3 yuan, and a cumulative increase of 3.13% over the past six months [4] - The latest scale of the national debt ETF for 5 to 10 years reached 1.493 billion yuan, marking a new high in nearly three months [4] Group 5 - The latest share count for the national debt ETF for 5 to 10 years is 12.7225 million shares, also a new high in nearly three months [5] - The national development bond ETF (159651) has increased by 0.03%, with the latest price at 106.03 yuan, and a cumulative increase of 2.06% over the past year [5] - The national development bond ETF has seen a significant growth in scale, increasing by 430 million yuan over the past six months, ranking in the top half among comparable funds [6]

Trade Relations and Economic Indicators - The significant reduction in tariffs between China and the U.S. has improved trade expectations, with the U.S. comprehensive tariff rate on China remaining around 40%[2] - April export data exceeded expectations, but PPI showed a year-on-year decline of 2.7%, indicating underlying economic weaknesses[2] - New loan issuance in April was below expectations, with cumulative new household loans in the first four months at a near ten-year low[2] Market Trends and Monetary Policy - The bond market has entered a defensive phase, with yields generally rising; the 10-year government bond yield increased to 1.68% (+5bp) and the 30-year yield to 1.88% (+4bp)[11] - Market sentiment is shifting towards a "trend over volatility" approach, delaying expectations for further interest rate cuts until after Q2 data is released in July[2] - The likelihood of a return to a tight funding environment similar to Q1 is low due to several factors, including stable bank liabilities and a supportive central bank stance[3] Investment Strategy and Bond Valuation - The bond market is expected to experience a period of volatility, with the 10-year yield fluctuating between 1.6% and 1.7%[26] - In the short-term, the focus should be on evaluating price-performance ratios, particularly in the 1-3 year bond segment, which currently shows a high liquidity advantage[26] - For mid-term bonds (5-7 years), the pricing uncertainty is moderate, while the 10-year agricultural development bonds offer attractive spreads[6] Financial Products and Risk Assessment - The total scale of wealth management products decreased by 771 billion yuan to 31.49 trillion yuan, reflecting a seasonal decline[32] - The proportion of wealth management products with negative returns has slightly increased to 1.96%, but remains relatively low compared to historical levels[38] - The overall performance of wealth management products not meeting expectations has decreased to 17.4%, indicating improved performance across various institutions[44]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is expected to remain volatile in the short - term. Although there are uncertain positive factors, the duration of the bond market should be maintained. If the funding rate declines, leverage can be appropriately increased [2][7][13][14]. - The relative loosening of funds lower than expected is the current main line of interest - rate trading. However, the loosening of funds should not be a continuous reason for bulls to be optimistic about the bond market. The significant decline of the funding rate is "unrealistic" according to experience, and if the expectation of loose funds persists, a lower - than - expected situation may lead to a bond - market correction [3][4][13][14]. - To be more bullish on the bond market, the main factors should revolve around the fundamental situation and risk appetite. There are uncertainties in the fundamental situation, such as the possible recurrence of trade frictions and the lower - than - expected results of "front - loading exports" [4][14]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Institutional Behavior Review: What Cards Do Bond Bulls Still Have? - This week, the credit market was strong, but interest rates fluctuated upward. The 3 - year medium - and short - term notes decreased by about 5bp, while the 10 - year Treasury bonds fluctuated up by nearly 5bp, and the credit spread narrowed overall [2][13]. - The relative loosening of funds lower than expected is the current main line of interest - rate trading. The funding rate (DR007) rose from 1.50% to around 1.60% this week, which impacted short - term bonds and caused long - term bonds to fluctuate weakly. After a 10bp interest - rate cut, some lower funding rates have formed a positive carry with many credit - bond varieties, so the credit market performed relatively strongly [3][13]. 3.2 Bond Market Yield Curve and Term Spread 3.2.1 Yield Curve: Yields of Treasury Bonds and China Development Bank Bonds Generally Rose - Treasury bond yields: The 1 - year yield rose 3bp, the 3 - year yield rose 4bp, the 5 - year yield rose 8bp, the 7 - year yield rose 6bp, the 10 - year yield rose 4bp, the 15 - year yield rose 6bp, and the 30 - year yield rose 4bp. The percentile points also increased to varying degrees [17]. - China Development Bank bond yields: The 1 - year yield rose 3bp, the 3 - year yield rose 3bp, the 5 - year yield rose 6bp, the 7 - year yield rose 6bp, the 10 - year yield rose 5bp, the 15 - year yield rose 4bp, and the 30 - year yield rose 4bp. The percentile points also changed accordingly [17]. 3.2.2 Term Spread: The Inversion of Treasury Bond Yield Spreads Eased, while that of China Development Bank Bonds Deepened; Treasury Bond Spreads Widened at the Short End, and China Development Bank Bond Spreads Widened Overall - Treasury bonds: The inversion of interest - rate spreads eased, and the term spread widened at the short end and narrowed at the long end. The 1Y - DR001 interest - rate spread inversion eased by 14bp, and the 1Y - DR007 interest - rate spread inversion eased by 11bp. The 3Y - 1Y spread widened by 3bp, the 5Y - 3Y spread widened by 2bp, the 7Y - 5Y spread narrowed by 1bp, the 10Y - 7Y spread narrowed by 2bp, the 15Y - 10Y spread widened by 1bp, and the 30Y - 15Y spread narrowed by 1bp. The percentile points also changed [18]. - China Development Bank bonds: The inversion of interest - rate spreads deepened, and the term spread widened overall. The 1Y - DR001 interest - rate spread inversion deepened by 11bp, and the 1Y - DR007 interest - rate spread inversion deepened by 7bp. The 3Y - 1Y spread changed by less than 1bp, the 5Y - 3Y spread widened by 3bp, the 7Y - 5Y spread changed by less than 1bp, the 10Y - 7Y spread narrowed by 1bp, the 15Y - 10Y spread changed by less than 1bp, and the 30Y - 15Y spread widened by 1bp. The percentile points also changed [20]. 3.3 Bond Market Leverage and Funding Situation 3.3.1 Leverage Ratio: Maintained at 106.70% From May 12 to May 16, 2025, the leverage ratio first rose and then fell during the week. As of May 16, the leverage ratio was about 106.70%, the same as last Friday and 0.19pct lower than Monday [24]. 3.3.2 This Week's Average Daily Turnover of Pledged Repurchase was 7.1 Trillion Yuan, with an Average Daily Overnight Proportion of 88.36% The average daily repurchase turnover increased compared with last week. From May 12 to May 16, the average daily turnover of pledged repurchase was about 7.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.3 trillion yuan from last week. The average overnight repurchase turnover was 6.3 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 0.47 trillion yuan, and the average overnight trading proportion was 88.36%, a month - on - month increase of 2.57pct [29][34]. 3.3.3 Funding Situation: Banks' Fund Lending First Rose and then Fell From May 12 to May 16, the net lending of bank - related funds first rose and then fell. On May 16, the net lending of large - scale and policy banks was 3.24 trillion yuan; joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks had an average daily net borrowing of 0.05 trillion yuan, and on May 16, the net borrowing was 0.2 trillion yuan. The net lending of the banking system was 3.05 trillion yuan. The main fund - borrowing party was funds, and the lending of money - market funds first decreased and then increased [35]. 3.4 Duration of Medium - and Long - Term Bond Funds 3.4.1 The Median Duration Decreased to 2.73 Years This week (from May 12 to May 16), the median duration of medium - and long - term bond funds was 2.73 years (de - leveraged) and 2.95 years (including leverage). On May 16, the median duration (de - leveraged) was 2.73 years, a decrease of 0.05 years from last Friday; the median duration (including leverage) was 2.95 years, a decrease of 0.01 years from last Friday [48]. 3.4.2 The Duration of Interest - Rate Bond Funds Rose to 3.90 Years In terms of different types of bond funds, the median duration of interest - rate bond funds (including leverage) rose to 3.90 years, an increase of 0.12 years from last Friday; the median duration of credit - bond funds (including leverage) decreased to 2.64 years, a decrease of 0.03 years from last Friday. The median duration of interest - rate bond funds (de - leveraged) was 3.35 years, a decrease of 0.02 years from last Friday; the median duration of credit - bond funds (de - leveraged) was 2.55 years, a decrease of 0.02 years from last Friday [52]. 3.5 Comparison of Category Strategies 3.5.1 Sino - US Interest - Rate Spread: The Overall Inversion Deepened The inversion of the Sino - US Treasury - bond spread deepened overall. The 1 - year spread inversion deepened by 5bp, the 2 - year by 5bp, the 3 - year by 6bp, the 5 - year spread inversion eased by 2bp, the 7 - year spread changed by less than 1bp, the 10 - year spread inversion deepened by 2bp, and the 30 - year spread inversion deepened by 2bp [54]. 3.5.2 Implied Tax Rate: The Short - End Narrowed, and the Long - End Widened As of May 16, the spread between China Development Bank bonds and Treasury bonds changed by less than 1bp for the 1 - year, narrowed by 1bp for the 3 - year, narrowed by 2bp for the 5 - year, changed by less than 1bp for the 7 - year, changed by less than 1bp for the 10 - year, narrowed by 1bp for the 15 - year, and widened by 1bp for the 30 - year [58]. 3.6 Changes in Bond - Lending Balances - On May 16, the concentration trend of lending for the active 10 - year China Development Bank bonds rose, while that for the active 10 - year Treasury bonds, the second - active 10 - year Treasury bonds, the second - active 10 - year China Development Bank bonds, and the active 30 - year Treasury bonds declined [60]. - In terms of institutions, the lending balance of securities companies increased, while that of large - scale and small - and medium - sized banks decreased [61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Stock Index: Neutral [1] - Treasury Bonds: Bearish [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The internal policy drive is the main theme for stock indices in 2025. A series of policies are beneficial for enterprises to repair their balance sheets, promote the stable development of the real - economy, and steadily increase stock market valuations [1]. - The bond market previously relied on expectations of monetary policy and weak fundamentals due to tariffs. However, with the implementation of a package of measures and the Sino - US joint statement on tariff cuts, the bond market is expected to run bearishly, and the yield curve is expected to steepen [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Stock Index**: On May 15, the A - share market generally declined, with the Wind All - A down 1.14% and a trading volume of 1.19 trillion yuan. Credit demand in April was weak, with cumulative new RMB loans of 10.06 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.86%, and M2 year - on - year growth of 8%. The Sino - US joint statement laid a good foundation for further trade negotiations. The central bank announced reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and the financial regulatory authority will promote long - term capital to enter the market. The CSRC will optimize the fee model of active equity funds. In the first quarter, the decline in the revenue growth rate of A - share listed companies narrowed for three consecutive quarters, net profit increased by about 4% year - on - year, and ROE is in the bottoming - out stage [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures closed with mixed performance. The central bank conducted 645 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 2.191 billion yuan. The bond market's previous support factors have changed. After the implementation of policies and the Sino - US tariff cut agreement, the bond market is expected to run bearishly, and the yield curve is expected to steepen [1][2]. 3.2 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On May 15, IH decreased by 0.53%, IF by 0.89%, IC by 1.31%, and IM by 1.56% compared to May 14 [3]. - **Stock Indices**: On May 15, the Shanghai Composite 50 decreased by 0.49%, the CSI 300 by 0.91%, the CSI 500 by 1.45%, and the CSI 1000 by 1.68% compared to May 14 [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On May 15, TS decreased by 0.02%, TF by 0.02%, T increased by 0.02%, and TL increased by 0.15% compared to May 14 [3]. - **Treasury Bond Yields**: On May 15, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds changed by 1.32, 1.19, - 0.43, and - 0.65 respectively compared to May 14 [3]. 3.3 Market News - The People's Bank of China, the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission, and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority plan to enrich the product types of the "Swap Connect". They will extend the contract term of interest rate swaps to 30 years and launch interest rate swap contracts based on the LPR [5]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report provides trend charts of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts, and the corresponding basis trend charts [7][8][10][11]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report provides trend charts of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rate charts [14][16][17][18]. - **Exchange Rates**: The report provides charts of the central parity rate of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and exchange rates between major currencies [21][22][23][25][26]