Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View The report anticipates that PP will continue to perform weakly. The overall fundamental support at the end of the year is limited. Although the PDH profit is at a new low, the upstream has locked in raw materials and made some pre - sales, so the willingness to cut production is not strong. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices under the deep - loss PDH profit [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of PP2601 was 6254, with a daily increase of 2.04%. The trading volume was 806,493, and the open interest changed by 193,360. The 01 - contract basis was - 154 (compared to - 49 the previous day), and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 76 (compared to - 39 the previous day) [1]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 6040 yuan/ton, 6100 yuan/ton, and 6230 yuan/ton respectively, showing an increase compared to the previous day [1]. 3.2 Spot News - The futures market rebounded slightly, some coal - chemical plant prices were raised, and the cost support for goods strengthened. Some wire drawing offers from traders increased slightly, while most non - standard prices remained stable. The daily trading volume improved partially [1]. - Some PDH devices are planned to shut down in January, but the scale is not large for now. The year - end demand lacks elasticity, and the industry's willingness to hold goods is limited under the continuous decline, putting pressure on the basis. The PP US dollar market prices partially declined, overseas suppliers' enthusiasm for offering to China is low, and downstream procurement remains based on rigid demand with difficult trading improvement [1]. 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - **Cost**: Crude oil is expected to fluctuate narrowly, providing limited support for the PP cost side. Sentiment was slightly repaired on Friday night due to approaching position limits and the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission's mention of resisting "involution - style" competition [2]. - **Supply**: There will be no new production before the 2605 contract, intensifying the game between existing supply and demand [2]. - **Demand**: Downstream new orders are weakening, and downstream factories' procurement remains cautious, resulting in weak demand [2]. 3.4 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of PP is 0 [3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report LLDPE has limited upside potential, and the basis has weakened again. The supply and demand pressure caused by high existing production capacity and weakening demand should be noted in the medium term [1][2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of L2601 on the previous day was 6557, with a daily increase of 1.09%, trading volume of 619,069, and an open - interest change of 9,111. The 01 - contract basis was - 57 (previous day: 4), and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 35 (previous day: - 10) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The previous day's spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 6500, 6650, and 6500 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of +10, +50, and 0 yuan/ton compared to the day before [1]. Spot News As the position - limit approaches, the futures market rebounds, and coal - chemical prices rise slightly. However, some ex - factory prices of petrochemical and oil companies are lowered, traders lack confidence, and the industry's willingness to hold goods is poor under weakening demand. The basis weakens again, and the destocking of warehouse receipts stops. The offering volume from the Middle East and the US decreases, and the prices are at a premium to the domestic market. Shipments from the Middle East and the US are delayed, and more arrivals are expected in Q1 2026 [1]. Market Condition Analysis - **Raw Materials and Supply - demand**: Crude oil prices fluctuate, the monomer segment is weakly stable, and the supply profit of PE ethylene and ethane is compressed. The PE market oscillates at a low level. The demand for downstream agricultural films weakens, while the packaging film industry maintains rigid demand. After the recent price decline, the willingness of the middle and lower reaches to hold goods weakens. The upstream offers discounts to sell at the end of the year, and the factory inventory decreases slightly, with a weak basis. On the supply side, Guangxi Petrochemical is gradually starting up, and the current maintenance plan in December is neutral [2]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of LLDPE is 0 [2].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates a seasonal reduction in domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories from December to January 2025, with uncertainties in soybean meal supply in Q1 2026. The overall market is expected to be stronger in the near - term and weaker in the long - term [6][7] - Delays in customs clearance in China are favorable for near - month contracts and positive spreads. Weak US soybean exports, lack of significant weather - related speculation in South America, and expected pressure on Brazilian premiums suggest that the M05 contract may be relatively weak [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Basis and Spread Data - The basis of the 43% soybean meal spot (against the main contract) varies by region, with values such as 97 in Dalian, 37 in Tianjin, 32 in Rizhao, etc. on December 12 [4] - The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong is 113, with a change of 74 [4] - Various spread data are provided, including the RM1 - 5 spread of 64 with a change of - 14, and the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread (spot in the east) of 300 and (main contract) of 672 with a change of - 2 [4][5] 3.2 International and Inventory Data - The USDA's current forecast for 2025/26 US soybean yield is 53 bushels per acre, with an ending inventory of 2.9 billion bushels (corresponding to a stock - to - use ratio of 6.7%). Brazilian new - crop production in 25/26 is predicted to reach 1.776 billion tons [6] - As of November 29, the Brazilian soybean planting rate was 86%, compared to 78% last week, 90% last year, and a five - year average of 84.4%. As of November 26, the Argentine 2025/26 soybean planting progress was 36% [6] - Data on Chinese port soybean inventory, major oil - mill soybean inventory, feed - enterprise soybean meal inventory days, and major oil - mill soybean meal inventory are presented, showing that domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historical highs, and the soybean meal inventory is being depleted slowly [5][7] 3.3 Supply, Demand, and Market Outlook - In terms of supply, US soybean yield may be further adjusted downwards due to less rainfall in the production area from August to September, and there is uncertainty in exports. Brazilian and Argentine planting progress and future precipitation conditions are also mentioned. In China, the supply of soybean meal in Q1 2026 is uncertain [6][7] - On the demand side, high livestock and poultry inventories in the short - term support feed demand, but low breeding profits and national policies may affect long - term supply. Soybean meal has relatively high cost - effectiveness, with normal downstream trading and good提货 performance recently [7] - Overall, the market is expected to be near - strong and far - weak, with customs clearance delays in China being a positive factor for near - month contracts and positive spreads [7]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bearish investment view on LPG, indicating that the current market news is generally "bullish for中下游 PP and propylene, and bearish for upstream crude oil and LPG." The crude oil fundamentals remain loosely and weakly, and the near - term LPG prices are expected to continue the high - level decline trend [5]. 2. Core View of the Report - The LPG market shows a divergence in domestic and international trends, with an overall supply - demand imbalance in the domestic market. The supply has increased due to the production increase of some refineries in South and East China last week. Although the winter heating demand is gradually improving, the economic efficiency of LPG as a cracking raw material has weakened, and the downstream olefin demand is sluggish. The inventory has increased, and the price is expected to continue to decline [5][6]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The LPG futures main contract trended downward, with a fluctuation range of 4,180 - 4,330 yuan/ton. The international LPG price was still strong, but the international crude oil price fluctuated downward, and the propylene futures price was weak. The domestic PDH plant profit continued to lose money, and the market supply exceeded demand. As of Thursday this week, the basis in East China was 195 yuan/ton, in South China was 200 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 180 yuan/ton. The lowest deliverable product was in Shandong [6]. 3.2 Supply - Last week, the total LPG commodity volume was about 52.29 million tons, including 21.87 million tons of civil gas, 19.35 million tons of industrial gas, and 17.12 million tons of ether - after C4. The LPG arrival volume was 283.44 million tons. Some refineries in South and East China increased production last week, so the supply increased. There is no news of refinery start - up or shutdown this week, but there are both some plant shutdowns and start - ups, and the domestic commodity volume is expected to change little [5]. 3.3 Demand - The winter heating demand is gradually coming, and the LPG combustion demand is gradually improving, with a slow recovery in demand. However, the absolute value of the PN spread has narrowed, the economic efficiency of LPG as a cracking raw material has weakened, and the substitution effect is limited due to the weak downstream olefin demand. The domestic propylene market has a serious oversupply, and the high - load operation of PDH plants suppresses the procurement demand for raw material propane. The European and American blenders have a strong demand for MTBE driven by the structural shortage of gasoline in the Atlantic Basin. The domestic isobutane dehydrogenation plants are operating at a high start - up rate, and although the profit loss has increased with the rise of raw material prices, the rigid demand is relatively resilient [5]. 3.4 Inventory - Last week, the LPG factory inventory was 201.00 million tons, and the port inventory was 215.20 million tons. Affected by the short - term weakness of international crude oil, the prices in various regions rose first and then fell. Coupled with the supply increase in some regions, downstream buyers chose to wait and see, which led to an increase in factory inventory. At the port, the arrival of ships increased, and the inventory of some ships arriving at the end of last week was reflected this week, with sufficient imported resources. With the continuous arrival of ships, the port shipping volume increased, but the port still showed an inventory accumulation trend [5]. 3.5 Basis and Position - The weekly average basis was 195 yuan/ton in East China, 200 yuan/ton in South China, and 180 yuan/ton in Shandong. The total LPG warehouse receipt volume was 5,476 lots, an increase of 0 lots, and the lowest deliverable location was in Shandong [5][6]. 3.6 Chemical Downstream - The start - up rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation were not fully filled in the data. The profits of PDH to propylene, MTBE isomerization, and Shandong alkylation were - 555 yuan/ton, - 172 yuan/ton, and - 484 yuan/ton respectively [5]. 3.7 Valuation - The PG - SC ratio was 1.27, and the PG main - secondary monthly difference was - 1.13% (84 yuan/ton). In the fourth quarter, the gas price was firm, while the crude oil returned to a bearish trend, and the oil - gas cracking spread showed a weakening trend [5]. 3.8 Other Factors - The IEA raised the global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 and slightly narrowed the supply surplus forecast. OPEC+ slightly increased crude oil production in November, and OPEC maintained the global oil demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026. The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the continued implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy, stabilizing the real estate market, and implementing a special action to boost consumption. The Fed cut interest rates in December, and the expectation of further rate cuts in the future has increased, with Morgan and Citi unanimously expecting another rate cut in January [5]. 3.9 Investment Strategy - For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see temporarily. For arbitrage, pay attention to the PG3 - 4 reverse spread, long PG and short SC, and long PP and short PG [5].

Group 1: Sugar Investment Rating Not provided Core View The sugar market is expected to remain weak next week due to a lack of positive factors and weak price rebound. The supply outlook is loose, which restricts the rebound of raw sugar prices. The increase in supply has led to a decline in futures prices and a subsequent drop in basis sugar prices. [2] Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The prices of sugar futures contracts have generally declined, while the ICE raw sugar主力 has increased slightly. The main contract's open interest has increased, and the number of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts remains unchanged. [2] - **Spot Market**: Spot prices have decreased, and the basis has changed. The price of imported Brazilian sugar has increased, and the spread between imported and domestic sugar has also changed. [2] - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative production and sales of sugar have decreased year - on - year, and the national sales rate has declined, while the sales rate in Guangxi has increased. Industrial inventories in most regions have decreased, except for an increase in Yunnan. Sugar imports have increased. [2] Group 2: Cotton Investment Rating Not provided Core View Internationally, US cotton maintains a volatile market. Domestically, the market expects a decline in Xinjiang's planting area next year, with a long - term optimistic outlook. However, the downstream industry is weak, and cotton prices face some upward pressure. [5] Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of some cotton futures contracts has declined slightly, and the open interest of the main contract has decreased. The number of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts has increased. [5] - **Spot Market**: Some spot prices have increased, and the basis has also changed. [5] - **Industry Situation**: The shortage has increased, industrial inventories have increased slightly, imports have decreased, and the inventory in bonded areas has decreased. The inventory of the textile industry has decreased year - on - year, and the inventory days of yarn and grey cloth have changed. Cotton outbound shipments have increased, while the processing profit of spinning enterprises has decreased. Retail sales and export volumes in the textile and clothing industries have increased. [5] Group 3: Corn Investment Rating Not provided Core View The current grain sales progress is relatively fast, but the effective market circulation of grain is limited. The price is relatively stable in the short term due to factors such as farmers' reluctance to sell and low terminal inventory, but the supply pressure restricts the upward space of corn prices. [7] Summary by Directory - **Corn**: The price of the corn 2601 contract at Jinzhou Port has declined slightly, and the basis has increased. The 1 - 5 spread remains unchanged. The price at Shekou Port remains stable, and the north - south trade profit remains unchanged. The arrival - at - port duty - paid price has decreased slightly, and the import profit has increased. The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning has decreased significantly, the open interest has decreased, and the number of warehouse receipts has decreased. [7] - **Corn Starch**: The price of the corn starch 2601 contract has increased slightly, and the spot prices in Changchun and Weifang remain unchanged. The basis has decreased, the 1 - 5 spread has increased, the 01 - contract spread between starch and corn has increased, and the profit of Shandong starch has increased. The open interest has decreased, and the number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged. [7] Group 4: Oils Investment Rating Not provided Core View For palm oil, there is a risk of further decline after breaking through the 4000 - ringgit support. Dalian palm oil futures are in a weak and volatile adjustment. For soybean oil, the potential reduction in US biodiesel production is negative for CBOT soybean oil, but the rebound of BMD palm oil provides some support. The domestic supply is sufficient, and the demand is limited, but the decline in basis quotes may be limited in the short term. [10] Summary by Directory - **Palm Oil**: The price of palm oil has declined, and the basis has changed. The import cost has decreased, and the import profit has increased. The number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged. [10] - **Soybean Oil**: The price of soybean oil remains unchanged, and the basis has increased. The supply of domestic factories is sufficient, and the demand is limited. [10] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The price of rapeseed oil has increased slightly, and the basis has also changed. [10] Group 5: Pigs Investment Rating Not provided Core View The spot price of pigs is stable, and the downward support has increased with the increase in southern curing demand. However, there is great uncertainty in the December - January market due to factors such as the increase in the epidemic and the potential entry of secondary fattening, and the overall supply pressure is still large. [12] Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The prices of some pig futures contracts have increased, and the 3 - 5 spread has changed. The open interest of the main contract has increased, and the number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged. [12] - **Spot Market**: Spot prices in different regions have changed, and the slaughter volume of sample points has increased. The weekly prices of pork strips remain unchanged, while the prices of piglets and sows have decreased slightly. The average slaughter weight has decreased slightly, and the breeding profits of self - breeding and purchased pigs have increased. The number of fertile sows has decreased. [12] Group 6: Eggs Investment Rating Not provided Core View The egg market is expected to be in a state of oversupply this week. Egg prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, but the downward space is limited due to insufficient terminal demand. [15] Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The prices of egg futures contracts have declined, and the basis has increased. The 1 - 2 spread has decreased. [15] - **Spot Market**: The price of eggs in the producing areas has decreased slightly, the price of egg - laying chicken seedlings has decreased, the price of culled chickens has increased, the egg - to - feed ratio has increased, and the breeding profit has increased. [15] - **Industry Situation**: The number of culled chickens has decreased slightly, and the number of newly - laying hens is still low. The inventory of laying hens is still at a high level, and the inventories at all links in the industry chain need to be digested. The terminal consumption is lower than expected, and the downstream purchasing sentiment has declined. [15] Group 7: Meal Investment Rating Not provided Core View US soybeans lack trading highlights, and the market is not optimistic about the medium - and long - term price of US soybeans. The domestic soybean meal supply is loose, but there is a sentiment of supporting prices in the market, and attention should be paid to the performance of the 1 - 5 positive spread. [17] Summary by Directory - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price of soybean meal has increased, the futures price has increased slightly, and the basis has increased. The import crushing profit has increased, and the number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged. [17] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price of rapeseed meal remains unchanged, the futures price has increased, and the basis has decreased. The import crushing profit has decreased, and the number of warehouse receipts is zero. [17] - **Soybeans**: The spot price of soybeans in Harbin remains unchanged, the futures price has decreased, and the basis has increased. The spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu remains unchanged, the futures price has decreased slightly, and the basis has increased. The number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged. [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the documents 2. Core Views - The reports mainly present daily data on various futures, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metal futures, and container shipping index futures, covering aspects such as price differences, price changes, and related fundamental data [1][2][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures - **Price Differences**: The IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts have different current - futures price differences, inter - period price differences, and cross - variety ratios. For example, the IF current - futures price difference is - 6.95, and the historical 1 - year percentile is 68.80% [1] - **Percentiles**: Different contracts have different historical percentiles, reflecting their positions in historical data distributions [1] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - **Basis and Cross - Period Price Differences**: Contracts like TS, TF, T, and TL have their respective basis and cross - period price differences, along with changes compared to the previous trading day and percentiles since listing. For example, the TS basis on December 12, 2025, is 1.7040, with a change of - 0.0662 from the previous day [2] - **Cross - Variety Price Differences**: There are cross - variety price differences among different treasury bond futures contracts, such as TS - TF, TS - T, etc. [2] 3.3 Precious Metal Futures - **Prices**: Domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices of precious metals (gold, silver, platinum, palladium) have different degrees of changes. For example, the AU2602 contract on December 12, 2025, closed at 970.66 yuan/gram, up 1.33% from the previous day [5] - **Basis and Ratios**: There are basis and price ratios between different precious metal contracts. For example, the basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract is - 5.86, and the historical 1 - year percentile is 2.80% [5] - **Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, Inventory, and Positions**: Information on interest rates (such as 10 - year US Treasury yields), exchange rates (such as the US dollar index), inventory (such as Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory), and positions (such as SPRD gold ETF positions) is also provided [5] 3.4 Container Shipping Index Futures - **Index Prices**: The settlement price index of container shipping (SCFIS for European and US - West routes) and Shanghai export container freight rates (SCFI) have different changes. For example, the SCFIS (European route) on December 8, 2025, is 1509.10, up 1.72% from December 1 [7] - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures prices of different contracts (EC2602, EC2604, etc.) and their basis (such as the basis of the main contract) have corresponding changes [7] - **Fundamental Data**: Data on container shipping supply capacity, port - related indicators (port punctuality rate, port calls), export amounts, overseas economic indicators (euro - zone PMI, US manufacturing PMI, etc.) are presented [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, oil prices should not be overly shorted in the short - term. A low - buy and high - sell range strategy is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to test OPEC's export price - support willingness [2]. - For methanol, after the bullish factors are realized, the market enters short - term consolidation. With high import arrivals and expected port olefin plant maintenance, there is still pressure on the port. The supply is at a high level, and the market is expected to consolidate at a low level. A wait - and - see approach is recommended for single - side trading [3]. - For urea, the market is rising in a volatile manner. Demand has improved in the short - term due to reserve needs and increased compound fertilizer production. Supply is expected to decline seasonally. With export policy and cost support, the downside space is limited, and it is expected to build a bottom in a volatile manner. Buying on dips is recommended [6]. - For rubber, a neutral approach is taken, suggesting short - term operations. Holding a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is advised [12]. - For PVC, the enterprise's comprehensive profit is at a historical low, but supply reduction is limited, and demand is under pressure. With strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market, shorting on rallies is recommended before significant industry production cuts [13][15]. - For pure benzene and styrene, when the inventory reversal point appears, going long on the non - integrated profit of styrene can be considered. Currently, styrene's non - integrated profit is neutral to low, with potential for upward valuation repair [18]. - For polyethylene, OPEC +'s plan to suspend production growth in Q1 2026 may lead to a bottoming of oil prices. With high inventory and seasonal demand decline, shorting the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies is recommended [21]. - For polypropylene, with expected supply surplus in the cost side and high inventory pressure, the market may be supported when the supply - surplus pattern changes in Q1 next year [24]. - For PX, it is expected to slightly accumulate inventory in December. With a neutral valuation, opportunities for going long on dips can be considered [27]. - For PTA, supply maintenance is expected to decrease, and demand will decline due to the off - season. With limited upside for processing fees, opportunities for going long on expected trading can be watched [29]. - For ethylene glycol, although domestic supply has improved due to unexpected maintenance, overall load is still high, and ports are in a inventory - accumulation cycle. Attention should be paid to the risk of a rebound caused by increased maintenance [31]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 3.60 yuan/barrel, a 0.82% decline, at 437.60 yuan/barrel. Singapore's ESG gasoline inventory increased by 1.86 million barrels to 14.99 million barrels, a 14.20% increase; diesel inventory decreased by 0.68 million barrels to 8.36 million barrels, a 7.48% decrease; fuel oil inventory increased by 0.50 million barrels to 26.06 million barrels, a 1.97% increase; total refined oil inventory increased by 1.69 million barrels to 49.41 million barrels, a 3.54% increase [8]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see in the short - term, and maintain a low - buy and high - sell range strategy [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu rose 13, in Lunan rose 20, in Inner Mongolia fell 2.5, in Henan remained unchanged, and in Hebei remained unchanged. The main futures contract fell 7 yuan/ton, to 2067 yuan/ton, with a basis of +31. MTO profit was - 72 yuan [2]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see for single - side trading as the market is expected to consolidate at a low level [3]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shanxi fell 10, in Shandong remained unchanged, and in Hebei remained unchanged. The total basis was reported at 65 yuan/ton. The main futures contract fell 13 yuan/ton, to 1625 yuan/ton [5]. - **Strategy**: Buy on dips as the market is expected to build a bottom in a volatile manner [6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices fluctuated. Exchange RU inventory warrants were low. As of December 4, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 62.99%, down 0.92 percentage points from the previous week but up 4.16 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 73.50%, up 1.13 percentage points from the previous week but down 5.15 percentage points from the same period last year. As of December 7, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 112.3 tons, a 1.9% increase; the total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 73 tons, a 2.4% increase; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 39.3 tons, a 1% increase. Qingdao's rubber total inventory was 48.48 (+0.98) tons [10]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral approach, short - term operations, and hold a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract fell 56 yuan, to 4220 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4250 (- 50) yuan/ton, with a basis of 30 (+6) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 253 (+33) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 79.4%, a 0.5% decrease; the downstream operating rate was 48.9%, a 0.2% decrease. Factory inventory was 34.4 tons (+1.8), and social inventory was 105.9 tons (unchanged) [12]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies before significant industry production cuts due to strong supply and weak demand [13][15]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5225 yuan/ton, a 40 - yuan decrease; the closing price of the active contract was 5420 yuan/ton, a 41 - yuan decrease; the basis was - 195 yuan/ton, a 1 - yuan increase. The spot price of styrene was 6120 yuan/ton, an 80 - yuan decrease; the closing price of the active contract was 6442 yuan/ton, an 82 - yuan decrease; the basis was - 322 yuan/ton, a 2 - yuan increase. The BZN spread was 101 yuan/ton, a 0.5 - yuan decrease; the non - integrated device profit of EB was - 225.25 yuan/ton, a 15.5 - yuan increase; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was - 6 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan increase. The upstream operating rate was 67.29%, a 1.66% decrease; the inventory in Jiangsu ports was 16.42 tons, an increase of 1.59 tons. The weighted operating rate of three S was 42.34%, a 0.10% increase; the PS operating rate was 57.60%, a 1.70% increase; the EPS operating rate was 54.75%, a 1.52% decrease; the ABS operating rate was 71.20%, a 1.20% decrease [17]. - **Strategy**: Go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene when the inventory reversal point appears [18]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6486 yuan/ton, a 121 - yuan decrease; the spot price was 6500 yuan/ton, a 100 - yuan decrease; the basis was 14 yuan/ton, a 21 - yuan weakening. The upstream operating rate was 84.12%, a 0.05% decrease. The production enterprise inventory was 45.4 tons, a decrease of 4.93 tons; the trader inventory was 4.71 tons, a decrease of 0.33 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 44.8%, a 0.11% increase. The LL1 - 5 spread was - 10 yuan/ton, a 18 - yuan increase [20]. - **Strategy**: Short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [21]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6129 yuan/ton, a 73 - yuan decrease; the spot price was 6130 yuan/ton, a 70 - yuan decrease; the basis was 1 yuan/ton, a 3 - yuan strengthening. The upstream operating rate was 77.97%, a 0.8% increase. The production enterprise inventory was 54.63 tons, a decrease of 4.75 tons; the trader inventory was 20.05 tons, a decrease of 1.29 tons; the port inventory was 6.53 tons, a decrease of 0.05 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 53.7%, a 0.13% increase. The LL - PP spread was 347 yuan/ton, a 30 - yuan decrease [22][23]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the supply - surplus pattern in the cost side to change in Q1 next year for potential support [24]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract fell 48 yuan, to 6786 yuan; the PX CFR fell 5 dollars, to 831 dollars; the basis was 8 yuan (+13), and the 1 - 3 spread was 28 yuan (+10). China's PX load was 88.1%, a 0.1% decrease; Asia's load was 79.3%, a 0.7% increase. In December, South Korea's PX exports to China in the first ten days were 13.9 tons, a 0.5 - ton decrease year - on - year. The inventory at the end of October was 407.4 tons, a 4.8 - ton increase month - on - month. The PXN was 282 dollars (+9), the South Korean PX - MX was 144 dollars (+15), and the naphtha crack spread was 103 dollars (+2) [26]. - **Strategy**: Consider going long on dips as it is expected to slightly accumulate inventory in December with a neutral valuation [27]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract fell 50 yuan, to 4614 yuan; the East China spot price fell 30 yuan, to 4610 yuan; the basis was - 20 yuan (+1), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 60 yuan (- 2). The PTA load was 73.7%, unchanged. The downstream load was 91.2%, a 0.6% decrease. The social inventory (excluding credit warrants) on December 5 was 216.9 tons, a decrease of 0.4 tons. The PTA spot processing fee remained unchanged at 172 yuan, and the futures processing fee fell 12 yuan to 181 yuan [28]. - **Strategy**: Watch for opportunities to go long on expected trading as supply maintenance is expected to decrease and demand will decline in the off - season with limited upside for processing fees [29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract rose 28 yuan, to 3627 yuan; the East China spot price fell 28 yuan, to 3603 yuan; the basis was - 18 yuan (- 3), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 84 yuan (+24). The ethylene glycol load was 69.9%, a 2.9% decrease. The downstream load was 91.2%, a 0.6% decrease. The import arrival forecast was 15.5 tons, and the East China departure on December 11 was 1.3 tons. The port inventory was 81.9 tons, a 6.6 - ton increase. The naphtha - based profit was - 1015 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based profit was - 1005 yuan, and the coal - based profit was 121 yuan [30]. - **Strategy**: Be aware of the risk of a rebound caused by increased maintenance as the overall load is high and ports are in an inventory - accumulation cycle [31].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily research and analysis on various energy and chemical futures, including trends, fundamentals, and market news for each product [2]. - Overall, the market shows a mixed trend, with some products in a high - level or low - level shock state, while others face supply - demand pressures or have short - term rebound opportunities. Summary by Product PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: In a high - level shock market. Demand is seasonally weakening, but supply remains tight. The upside space is limited due to weakening demand and the end of the blending logic. The recommended operation range is 6550 - 7000, and some hedging positions should be closed [2][10]. - **PTA**: In a high - level shock market. The cost - side PX supply is tight, but polyester is accumulating inventory and incurring losses, so the upside space is limited. The recommended operation range is 4500 - 4800, and some hedging positions should be closed [2][11]. - **MEG**: The unexpected load reduction improves the inventory accumulation pressure, and there is short - term support below. The price has reached the cost line of most production devices, and some factories have stopped operating [2][11]. Rubber - In a shock operation state. The price has a small increase, and the inventory has increased. The trend strength is neutral [12]. Synthetic Rubber - The shock center moves up. The inventory of domestic butadiene rubber has decreased slightly, and the supply of butadiene has decreased marginally. The industry is under pressure but supported by valuation [15][18]. Asphalt - Affected by the rising situation in Venezuela. The price shows a shock trend, with changes in production capacity utilization and inventory in different regions [19][30]. LLDPE - Unilateral decline, with limited basis strengthening. The futures price is under pressure, and the demand is weakening. The supply pressure from high - capacity and weak demand needs to be concerned in the medium term [33][34]. PP - Under upstream selling pressure, with the price difference between powder and granular materials inverted. The cost support is limited, the demand is weak, and it is expected to continue the weak trend. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [37][38]. Caustic Soda - Short - term rebound, but still under pressure later. Although the futures price rebounded due to macro and alumina factors, it is still in a high - production and high - inventory pattern, and the demand is difficult to support [40][41]. Pulp - In a wide - range shock state. The upward momentum comes from external cost and supply tightening expectations, while the downward pressure comes from high domestic inventory and weak terminal demand [44][47]. Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The futures price has a slight decline, and the spot price shows mixed trends in different regions. The northern region is affected by snowfall [52]. Methanol - Shock rebound. The port inventory is decreasing, and the fundamentals have improved. However, the MTO fundamentals are weak, and there is a price limit above, while the cost provides support below [54][58]. Urea - Short - term shock operation. The enterprise inventory is decreasing, and the fundamentals have improved marginally. The policy and cost form a support below, and there is a pressure level above [60][62]. Styrene - Short - term shock. The pure benzene market is in a shock state, with weak current situation and strong future expectations. The styrene downstream is in a high - start, high - inventory, and medium - profit pattern [63][64]. Soda Ash - The spot market changes little. The enterprise production is stable, and the downstream demand is flat, with poor procurement enthusiasm [67][68]. LPG - Short - term shock, with a downward trend in the long term. The price shows a shock trend, and there are changes in PDH and other operating rates [71][72]. Propylene - Short - term narrow - range adjustment. The price and relevant operating rates show certain changes [72]. PVC - Low - level shock. The market is in a high - production and high - inventory pattern, and there is a short - term rebound expectation, but the large - scale production reduction expectation may occur after the 03 contract [80][81]. Fuel Oil - The night - session rebounds, temporarily getting rid of the weak state. The low - sulfur fuel oil is weaker than the high - sulfur fuel oil, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the external market rebounds slightly [83]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Short - term sentiment is optimistic, and it is in a medium - term shock market. The freight rate index shows an upward trend, and there are changes in shipping capacity and schedules [85]. Short - fiber and Bottle - chip - Medium - term pressure. It is recommended to hold long PTA and short short - fiber/bottle - chip positions. The futures prices are in a low - level shock state, and the spot prices show certain changes [94][95]. Offset Printing Paper - It is recommended to wait and see. The spot price is stable, and the market demand is weak, with strong wait - and - see sentiment [97][98]. Pure Benzene - Short - term shock. The port inventory has increased, and the market is affected by factors such as supply and demand and overseas market conditions [102][103].

新 加 坡 燃 料 油 现 货 | 日期 | FOB 380cst | FOB VLSFO | 380基差 | 高硫内外价差 | 低硫内外价差 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/08 | 343.53 | 425.03 | -6.40 | 2.1 | 4.5 | | 2025/12/09 | 333.81 | 415.01 | -5.22 | 1.7 | 4.2 | | 2025/12/10 | 330.84 | 416.96 | -5.85 | -0.2 | 3.8 | | 2025/12/11 | 328.65 | 410.80 | -5.35 | 0.8 | 3.7 | | 2025/12/12 | 331.79 | 416.24 | -4.45 | 3.3 | 6.1 | | 变化 | 3.14 | 5.44 | 0.90 | 2.5 | 2.4 | | 国 内 F U | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | FU 01 | FU 05 | FU ...

原油市场上，在OPEC+持续增产的同时，美国原油产量处于高位，且俄乌地缘冲突结束预期增强，油 价承压。不过，美国对委内瑞拉原油的制裁以及俄乌和谈结束前冲突不断等对油价存在一定支撑。 PX市场上，12月，亚洲PX装置检修不多，供应整体维持偏高水平。截至12月12日，国内PX装置负荷稳 定在88.1%。沙特Satorp和日本出光的装置重启，加之越南NSRP装置的负荷恢复，亚洲PX装置负荷提升 至79.3%。不过，12月以来，PX取价周期转向明年1—2月，且华东PX大厂降负预期较强，PX基本面预 期好转。 PTA供应上，11月，英力士年产能110万吨、能投年产能100万吨、逸盛宁波年产能220万吨的装置检 修，PTA装置负荷维持在75%以下，供应减量明显。12月，PTA无新增检修装置。 PTA需求上，聚酯装置在内外需支撑下，降负节点延后，叠加印度BIS认证取消后，PTA及下游聚酯产 品出口预期增加，聚酯装置负荷维持偏高水平。12月截至目前，聚酯装置平均负荷仍在91%的偏上水 平，超出此前预期。 综合分析，12月，PTA平衡表可能去库20万吨。在此过程中，PTA基差持续走强，自11月中旬的-75元／ 吨运行至当前的- ...