Paymentus (PAY) Q1 2025 Earnings Call May 05, 2025 05:00 PM ET Company Participants Scott Eckstein - Senior VP, Investor RelationsDushyant Sharma - Founder and Chief Executive OfficerSanjay Kalra - Senior VP, CFO & Principal Accounting OfficerJohn Davis - Managing DirectorMatthew O'Neill - Managing DirectorDarrin Peller - Managing DirectorWill Nance - Vice President Conference Call Participants David Koning - Senior Research AnalystNone - Analyst Operator Good day, and welcome to the First Quarter twenty tw ...

人民币走势强劲。 5月5日，离岸人民币兑美元升穿7.20关口，为去年11月以来首次，日内涨超100点。 富时中国A50指数期货直线拉升，最新报涨0.84%。 美元指数盘中跳水，再度跌破100大关，最低下探至99.673。 | < W | | | 美元指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | USDX.FX | | | | | | 99.7721 | | 前收 | 100.0424 | 开盘 | 99.9947 | | -0.2703 | -0.27% | 卖品 | 99.7721 | 买入 | 99.7721 | | 最高 | 100.0524 | 今年来 | -8.03% | 20日 | -3.60% | | 最低 | 99.6730 | 10日 | 1.44% | 60日 | -7.90% | | 分时 | 五日 | 目K | 周K | 月K | 更多 ( | | 叠加 | | | | | | | 100.4118 | | | | | 0.37% | | 100.0424 | | | | | 0.00% | | 99.6730 | | | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in both revenue and profitability for Q1 2025, indicating ongoing challenges in the market and operational performance [2][4]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.97 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.3% year-on-year [2][3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 660 million yuan, compared to a loss of 280 million yuan in the same period last year [2][3]. - The comprehensive gross margin fell to 12.5%, down 2.4 percentage points year-on-year [2][3]. Sales and Market Position - The company's sales amounted to 8.15 billion yuan, reflecting a substantial decline of 51.3% [3]. - Sales volume and price both decreased, with a sales area of 540,000 square meters, down 45.1%, and an average selling price of 15,000 yuan per square meter, down 11.2% [3]. - The company ranked 21st in the industry according to CRIC, down from 14th in the previous year [3]. Debt and Financing - As of the end of 2024, the company's interest-bearing debt totaled 73.52 billion yuan, a reduction of 20.0% [4]. - The company maintains a conservative approach to debt, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 64.8% and a net debt ratio of 49.1% [4]. - The average cost of debt financing decreased to 4.05%, down 0.31 percentage points [4]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to face continued pressure on revenue and performance due to market demand decline and industry credit tightening [4]. - The company plans to focus on cash flow management through sales recovery and asset disposal [4]. - Projections for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 are 200 million, 300 million, and 500 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 117, 57, and 37 times [4].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing significant volatility in 2025, contrasting sharply with the favorable conditions of 2024, leading to disappointing returns for investors in pure bond funds [1][3]. Group 1: Bond Market Performance - In 2024, the bond market thrived under a loose monetary policy, with some pure bond funds achieving annualized returns exceeding 15%, such as Huatai Baoxing Anyue, which reached 17.96% [1][3]. - However, in the first quarter of 2025, the bond market faced tightening liquidity, resulting in a slowdown in net value growth for pure bond funds, with some even showing negative returns [3][4]. - The 10-year government bond yield saw a notable increase of approximately 30 basis points at the beginning of 2025, impacting the asset values of pure bond funds [3][4]. Group 2: "Fixed Income +" Products - In contrast to the bond market, the A-share market showed strong performance in early 2025, driven by sectors like humanoid robots and AI, benefiting "fixed income +" products that combine equity investments with bonds [4][5]. - "Fixed income +" products, which include a mix of stable bond assets and more aggressive equity investments, outperformed pure bond funds, with average returns of 0.42% compared to 0.37% for pure bond funds by April 30, 2025 [7][8]. - The total scale of "fixed income +" products saw significant growth, with several fund managers reporting increases exceeding 100 billion yuan in 2025 [8][9]. Group 3: Fund Management Strategies - Fund managers are increasingly focusing on diversified strategies to mitigate risks associated with market volatility, emphasizing the importance of a systematic approach to investment [10]. - The performance of "fixed income +" products is heavily influenced by the underlying equity assets, which can lead to greater net value fluctuations compared to pure fixed income products [11][13]. - Investors are advised to carefully select "fixed income +" products that align with their risk preferences to avoid significant deviations from expected outcomes [13].

Group 1 - The article discusses the potential for gold prices to stop declining, with a focus on the impact of the upcoming May non-farm payroll data [1][3] - Gold has experienced a significant drop, reaching a low of around 3200, but there are signs of a potential rebound, with a current price around 3245 after a midnight rebound [5] - The dollar index has risen to around 100, which serves as a critical threshold for determining the strength of gold; if the dollar weakens, gold is likely to strengthen [5] Group 2 - The non-farm payroll data is crucial, with a previous value of 228,000 and a market forecast of 130,000; a result close to the forecast could negatively impact the dollar and positively affect gold [5] - Technical analysis indicates that gold's daily price has touched the middle Bollinger band support, suggesting a normal rebound; a sustained price above 3260 could indicate further upward movement [5] - International silver has also seen a significant pullback, with a low of 31.6, but there are indications of a potential upward trend, closing around 32.5 [6]

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 螺丝钉祝大家五一节快乐～ 有朋友留言，希望螺丝钉把一些有数据、有知识、有指导方法的精华文章汇总出来，方便学习。 如下，整理出了4月份的精华文章，点击对应的文章链接即可查看。 同时，螺丝钉也将相关文章的完整内容，汇总成了一个PDF文档，方便大家保存。 长按识别下面二维码，添加 @课程小助手 微信，回复「 202504 」即可领取PDF文档。 （提示：回复后可以耐心等待几秒哦～） 红利估值表 螺丝钉也汇总了本周的红利指数的估值，以及有定期分红的红利指数基金。供大家做个参考～ | 指数代码 | 指数名称 | 盈利收益率 | 市盈率 市净率 股息率% ROE% | | | 近十年市盈率 | 近十年市净率 | 近十年股息率 | 场内代码 场外代码 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 分位数% | 分位数% | 分位数% | | | | 930839.CSI | 港股红利 | 10.36% | 9.65 96 | 5.13 | 9.95 | 57. ...

经纪、自营收入高增，管理费率压降助推净利润表现优于营收。1Q25 公司证券主营收入72.6 亿/yoy+29.1%。1）主营收拆分看：1Q25 公司经纪、投行、资管、净利息、净投资、长股投收入分别为 19.4、5.4、4.2、9.6、25.8、7.5 亿元，收入占比26.7%、7.5%、5.8%、13.3%、35.5%、10.3%；分别同 比+42.6%、-5.9%、-61.7%、+319%、+39.7%、+240%。2）成本管控良好：1Q25 公司管理费用31.4 亿/yoy-11.6%，管理费率（管理费用/证券主营收入）为43.2%/yoy-19.9pct，推动公司净利润表现优于营 收。 投资杠杆环比扩张、边际增配权益OCI，投资收益率同比提升。1Q25 末公司经营杠杆3.27x/yoy- 0.69x/qoq-0.01x，期末投资杠杆1.97x/ yoy-0.54x/qoq+0.04x，金融投资规模为3855 亿元/yoy- 15.6%/qoq+4.2%，其中其他权益工具投资规模19.6 亿（年初仅1.3 亿）。投资业务方面，1Q25 公司净投 资收入25.8 亿元/yoy+39.7%/qoq-24.1% ...

分行业看，申万所属行业中，融资余额增加的行业有12个，增加金额最多的行业是公用事业，融资余额 增加3.15亿元；其次是汽车、通信行业，融资余额分别增加2.60亿元、1.06亿元。 具体到个股来看，融资余额出现增长的股票有1490只，占比40.40%，其中，220股融资余额增幅超过5% 。融资余额增幅最大的是唯科科技，该股最新融资余额1.60亿元，较前一交易日增幅达73.04%；股价表 现上，该股当日上涨16.78%，表现强于沪指；融资余额增幅较多的还有春光智能、速达股份，融资余 额增幅分别为41.16%、38.74%。 融资余额增幅前20只个股中，从市场表现来看，平均上涨4.27%，涨幅居前的有大叶股份、联合化学、 唯科科技，涨幅分别为19.98%、18.19%、16.78%。跌幅居前的有湖南裕能、森马服饰、三峡水利，跌 幅分别为12.16%、9.76%、6.04%。 4月29日沪指下跌0.05%，市场两融余额为18022.72亿元，较前一交易日减少15.36亿元。 与杠杆资金大幅加仓股相比，有2197股融资余额出现下降，其中，融资余额降幅超过5%的有229只。拾 比佰融资余额降幅最大，最新融资余额122.7 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trade tensions and tariff issues between the U.S. and other countries, particularly China, are leading to a significant reduction in trade dependencies, which is becoming a necessary reality for many exporters and importers [2][3]. Group 1: Trade Relations and Dependencies - Many exporters to the U.S. and importers from the U.S. are recognizing the need to drastically reduce trade ties with the U.S. due to the persistent nature of trade issues, regardless of tariff changes [2]. - There is a growing consensus among countries that reducing interdependence with the U.S. is essential, as they navigate trade, capital market, geopolitical, and military relationships [2]. Group 2: Economic Imbalances and Sustainability - The current global economic situation is characterized by unsustainable consumption patterns in the U.S., which is the largest consumer of manufactured goods and the largest producer of debt assets [3]. - The significant trade and capital imbalances are creating unsustainable conditions, necessitating a reduction in these imbalances to avoid severe risks [3]. Group 3: Global Order and Political Challenges - The world is on the brink of a collapse in monetary order, domestic politics, and international relations, driven by unsustainable fundamentals that are measurable and evident [4]. - Historical parallels can be drawn from past events, indicating that the current chaos is a contemporary version of how monetary, political, and geopolitical orders evolve [4]. Group 4: Strategic Planning and Solutions - A calm, analytical, and coordinated approach is essential to address the challenges of imbalances and self-sufficiency, aiming for a "perfect" deleveraging and rebalancing [5]. - There is a proposed "three-part, 3% solution" to tackle U.S. government debt issues, which could yield better outcomes than the current trajectory [5].

最近跟着某大V买入两倍做空恒生科技ETF 07552作为港股的对冲仓位。对于杠杆ETF的磨损成 本之前有所耳闻，但具体多大没有量化过。今天拿两倍做空恒科和做多恒科画了一张图，简直震 惊了。 上图是17年至今这两个ETF的数据，发现平均值（绿线）是先跌后涨的，趋势基本和做多恒指 03037是一致的，这难道说明1倍做多恒指跟踪得好点，1倍做空恒指跟踪得差一点？ 最后，本文的目的是，提醒一下买带杠杆ETF的同学：阿祖，醒醒吧，别买了，损耗太大了。 拉格纳罗斯 美股的三倍做多纳指，tqqq。很多大v都在推，用来对冲之类的。但我就信一条。纳指这么大牛 市。他是三倍杠杆，市值竟然只有30亿。看曲线，也没看出来纳指的三倍牛市，咱也不懂，咋也 不问。但咱知道，不懂不做。 这次惊人地发现，1倍做空恒指07300和1倍做多恒指03037的每日平均值居然是上升的，由11.4 涨到了12.9，涨幅为13%，好嘛，买点做空的ETF对冲，除了实现对冲，该做空产品未来期望居 然还是涨的。 如果完全没有磨损的话，那么两倍做空07552和两倍做多07226的平均值那条线（即上图绿 线），就应该是一条笔直的水平线，但是过去一年，这个平均值居然由 ...