供给侧改革

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ETF盘中资讯|化工板块开盘下挫,化工ETF(516020)盘中跌超2%!回调或迎上车时机?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-31 02:35
化工板块今日(7月31日)出现回调。反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF(516020)开盘后持续走弱,盘中场内价格跌幅一度达到2.25%。 成份股方面,石化、氮肥、农药等板块部分个股跌幅居前。截至发稿,齐翔腾达、新凤鸣、鲁西化工等多股大跌超3%,拖累板块走势。 图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等)均只作为参考,投资人须对任何自主决定的投资行为负责。另,本文中的任何观点、分析及预测不构成对 阅读者任何形式的投资建议,亦不对因使用本文内容所引发的直接或间接损失负任何责任。基金投资有风险,基金的过往业绩并不代表其未来表 现,基金管理人管理的其他基金的业绩并不构成基金业绩表现的保证,基金投资须谨慎。 | | | 分时 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 60分 = | | | | | | F9 盘前盘后 叠加 九转 画线 工具 √ ② > | | | 4. TETE 1 | | 516020 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0.683 | | | | | 516020[化工E ...
锌:新一轮“供给侧改革”能否带来“锌”一轮牛市?
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 02:16
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report In early 2016, the zinc industry cycle was characterized by tight zinc ore supply and loose zinc ingot supply, with strong expectations but weak reality. The introduction of supply - side reform policies coordinated with the industry cycle, leading to a significant bull market in zinc prices. Currently, the zinc industry is in a situation of loose supply of both zinc ore and zinc ingot, with weak expectations and reality. Although policies such as anti - involution, elimination of backward production capacity, and stable growth have been introduced, the zinc industry cycle fails to resonate with domestic macro - policies, making it difficult for zinc prices to show a sustained upward trend. With the expected increase in zinc ingot supply, if speculative sentiment cools down and the macro - environment weakens, zinc prices still face significant downward risks [1][26]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Side: Loose Supply of Both Ore and Ingot - **Zinc Ore**: In the first half of the year, the increase in zinc ore supply mainly occurred overseas. From January to June in China, the cumulative year - on - year growth of net zinc ore imports was 48%, driving the cumulative year - on - year growth of total zinc ore supply to 13.5%. The significant growth in zinc ore supply is reflected in higher inventories than in previous years and rising processing fees. The current port inventory of zinc concentrates is 275,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory is 599,000 physical tons, with the total inventory increasing by 286,800 physical tons compared to the visible inventory of the same period last year. The current average domestic TC of zinc concentrates is 3,800 yuan/metal ton, and the import TC index is 76 dollars/dry ton, increasing by 2,350 yuan/metal ton and 115 dollars/dry ton respectively compared to the low points of the same period last year [4]. - **Zinc Ingot**: The increase in zinc ingot supply lags behind that of zinc ore by about 4 months. China's smelting output began to rise in June. In June, the zinc ingot output was 585,100 tons, with a year - on - year change of 7.2% and a month - on - month change of 6.5%. With abundant raw materials, it is expected that the average monthly total supply of domestic zinc ingots will remain above 600,000 tons in the second half of the year. Due to relatively limited downstream demand, the visible inventory of domestic zinc ingots has been rising since early June. From June to July, the total inventory of domestic zinc ingots increased by 24,500 tons to 196,300 tons, and the basis and monthly spread of SHFE zinc also declined significantly [4]. Demand Side: Weak Reality with Marginally Strengthening Expectations - **Current Demand Situation**: The operating conditions of primary enterprises are worse than in previous years. The weekly operating rate of galvanized coils is 3% lower than the same period last year, and that of die - cast zinc alloy enterprises is 4.6% lower. However, some primary enterprises carried out strategic stockpiling as zinc prices declined. The sharp drop in zinc prices in the first half of 2025 brought forward the apparent demand for zinc ingots, and Trump's tariff policy brought forward galvanized exports. These early stockpiling/consumption behaviors may lead to weaker actual consumption in the second half of 2025 compared to the same period of previous years [12]. - **Demand Expectations**: The Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project started on July 19, with a total investment of 1.2 trillion yuan. As a large - scale infrastructure project, it has increased the consumption expectation of zinc ingots to some extent. Zinc used in hydropower station construction is mainly for the anti - corrosion of metal structural parts. However, due to the long expected construction period of the project, the actual annual demand for zinc ingots is relatively limited, and it mainly has a boosting effect on market sentiment [12]. Market Sentiment and Capital Disturbance - **Overseas**: The Trump administration's influence on the Fed's monetary policy is increasing, raising the market's expectation of a loose Fed monetary policy, which provides some support for zinc prices. As the end - of - month Fed interest rate meeting approaches, the market is waiting for the Fed's interest rate decision [17]. - **Domestic**: On July 18, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released a work plan for stable growth and elimination of backward production capacity. Coupled with the anti - involution policy, it has ignited a bull market in domestic bulk commodities. Polysilicon, coking coal, and other black - series commodities have all risen significantly. SHFE zinc, as a non - ferrous metal variety highly correlated with black - series commodities, has also been affected by market sentiment to some extent. After the July delivery in the domestic zinc market, the registered warehouse receipts of zinc ingots on the SHFE returned to over 10,000 tons, the monthly spread of SHFE zinc declined significantly, and the domestic structural risk decreased significantly. Since early July, the concentration of long positions in the LME zinc market has been relatively high. On July 21, the cancelled warehouse receipts of LME zinc increased by 38,400 tons, and the cancelled warehouse receipts dropped to a low of 58,300 tons, pushing the LME zinc monthly structure to strengthen continuously, and the overseas structural risk remains high. Under the pattern of weak domestic and strong overseas markets, the SHFE - LME ratio has continued to decline, and the zinc ingot import window has closed [17]. Comparison of Current and 2016 Market Conditions In 2016, the zinc industry entered a period of zinc ore shortage. According to SMM data, the average profit of zinc ore enterprises entered a loss since the second half of 2015, and in early 2016, the average profit was - 2,300 yuan/metal ton. The zinc ore processing fee was at a high level and showed a marginal weakening trend. Some high - cost zinc mines suffered severe losses. From the end of 2015 to early 2016, Glencore's zinc mines reduced production by 500,000 tons due to heavy losses, and MMG and Vedanta's zinc mines reduced production by 670,000 tons due to resource depletion. In contrast, the current zinc ore market is still in a state of oversupply. The average profit of SMM zinc ore is still 4,300 yuan/metal ton, and the zinc ore processing fee is on an upward trend without any signs of stagnation or weakening. According to the quarterly reports of overseas mining enterprises, the production of major mining enterprises is normal, and there is no tendency for profit - related production cuts [25].
石油ETF(561360)涨超1%,市场关注央国企资产整合与资本开支周期变化
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-07-31 00:42
光大证券指出,地方国资委负责人研讨班强调加强国有资产重组整合,推动国有资本优化配置,形 成新的国有资本布局结构,建议关注央国企资产整合投资机会。在经历了2021、2023年的资本开支高峰 后,2024年化工央国企的资本开支放缓,全年实现资本开支2485亿元,与2019年2420亿元的规模接近, 表明石化化工上市央国企资本开支强度有望得到控制,资本开支周期反转有望来临。2024年以来,中央 针对"反内卷"频繁发声,工信部新一期《石化化工行业稳增长工作方案》有望出台,政策目标为调整行 业结构、推动供给侧优化和淘汰落后产能,炼油、PTA/PX、化肥、颜料染料、有机硅/工业硅、纯碱、 氯碱/PVC等子行业的供给侧改革有望深化,相关央国企有望受益。石化化工央国企近年来加大研发投 入,研发费用率持续提升,2019-2024年,央企的研发费用率从0.55%增长至0.77%,地方国企从1.44% 增长至2.49%,重视新质生产力的发展,大力攻关"卡脖子"技术,支撑和引领炼化新材料产业转型升 级。 石油ETF(561360)跟踪的是油气产业指数(H30198),该指数从市场中选取涉及石油、天然气的 勘探、开采、炼制及销售等业务 ...
宏观政策适时加力,巩固拓展经济回升向好势头
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-07-30 22:58
Economic Policy and Strategy - The central government emphasizes the need for continuous and stable macroeconomic policies to enhance flexibility and foresight, focusing on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations to promote domestic and international dual circulation [1][2] - A more proactive fiscal policy will be implemented, including the issuance of ultra-long special government bonds and local government special bonds to improve fund utilization efficiency [2][3] - Monetary policy should be adjusted appropriately to lower the comprehensive financing costs for society while maintaining ample liquidity, with a focus on supporting technological innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade [2][3] Consumer Demand and Market Dynamics - The government aims to support consumption as a priority to effectively release domestic demand potential, including a continuation of the 138 billion yuan subsidy for replacing old consumer goods [3] - Policies will be developed to enhance service consumption in areas such as elderly care, childcare, culture, and tourism, alongside financial support for personal consumption loans [3] - Structural reforms will be pursued to improve supply quality and stimulate market vitality, focusing on fostering internationally competitive emerging industries and integrating technological and industrial innovation [3][4] Capital Market and Economic Stability - The capital market is increasingly seen as a barometer for the macroeconomy, with efforts to enhance its attractiveness and inclusivity to support economic recovery [4] - The implementation of urban renewal actions and the promotion of a healthy real estate market are viewed as essential for economic stability [4] - A systematic approach combining short-term goals with long-term tasks is necessary to ensure the effectiveness of policies and release economic potential [4]
玻璃期货先涨后跌,政策预期与需求的博弈谁将胜出?
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-07-30 14:31
周三,玻璃期货呈现先涨后跌的震荡走势,主力合约最终收涨0.76%,报1191元/吨。市场分析指出,波 动可能受到政策预期与基本面现实的双重影响,在"反内卷"政策支撑下,玻璃期货夜盘反弹,但午后市 场情绪转弱,涨幅明显收窄。 上涨动因:政策预期与库存改善 中共中央政治局7月30日会议关于"推进重点行业产能治理"的表态进一步强化了市场对玻璃行业供给侧 改革的预期。光大期货分析指出:"中共中央政治局召开会议表示要依法依规治理企业之间的无序竞 争,推进重点行业产能治理。这一表态再次在一定程度上带动了市场的积极情绪。" 除此之外,本次玻璃价格上涨还受到两方面因素推动。玻多多调研显示:"月末市场稳中偏强运行,受 期货盘面提振,期现商提货积极性较高,同时中下游阶段性补库和出口订单表现亮眼对价格形成支 撑。" 库存数据呈现改善迹象。截至7月24日,全国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存6189.6万重箱,环比下降304.3万 重箱或4.69%,创今年2月份以来新低。华联期货指出:"厂家库存持续下降低于去年同期水平",但同时 也提醒"后续仍需关注终端需求跟进以及产线冷修情况"。值得注意的是,库存下降主要源于企业库存向 中下游转移,而非终端 ...
政治局会议召开,商品后市如何?【陈兴团队•财通宏观】
陈兴宏观研究· 2025-07-30 11:38
Core Viewpoint - The recent Politburo meeting emphasizes stability over innovation for the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan, contrasting with the previous focus on seizing opportunities during the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] Policy Direction - The urgency for macroeconomic policy has decreased, shifting from "accelerated implementation" in April to "timely reinforcement" in July, indicating less pressure to boost domestic demand due to strong external demand [2] - The meeting highlighted the need for policy continuity and stability, focusing on the implementation of existing policies rather than introducing new ones, with limited incremental policies [2] - Key areas of focus include technology innovation, boosting consumption, supporting small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade, with major economic provinces taking a leading role [2] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Fiscal policy aims to improve the efficiency of fund usage, gradually phasing out inefficient investments, and prohibits new hidden debts for local governments, which may pressure local infrastructure investments [3] - Monetary policy has shifted from supporting the real economy to promoting a reduction in social financing costs, benefiting residents and enterprises broadly, with a focus on interest rate transmission mechanisms [3] - Consumer demand remains a priority, with an emphasis on nurturing new growth points in service consumption and improving livelihoods rather than just increasing income [3] Market Regulation and Competition - The meeting introduced the need to standardize local investment attraction practices, continuing the "anti-involution" policy direction, and aims to reshape market competition order [5] - The approach to supply-side reform differs from 2015, focusing on market-driven measures rather than administrative shutdowns, leading to a more moderate impact on prices [5] Foreign Trade and Capital Markets - Increased support for foreign trade enterprises was noted, with a focus on enhancing financing support for those significantly impacted by tariffs [5] - The capital market is expected to further open up, with an emphasis on maintaining a healthy market trend and enhancing its attractiveness and inclusivity [6] Urban Development - The meeting underscored the transition of urban development from large-scale expansion to quality improvement, aligning with the central urban work meeting's spirit [6] Commodity Market Outlook - The supply-side reform's impact on market competition is expected to be less forceful compared to previous measures, while demand-side policies are shifting towards the implementation of existing measures, leading to a moderate overall stimulus [8] - The previous bullish sentiment in commodities may stabilize as capacity reduction and demand expansion efforts are yet to be fully realized [8]
永安期货有色早报-20250730
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 05:26
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views - For copper, the current demand is seasonally weak due to the downstream off - season and weakened trans - shipment motivation, but the balance will be tight after August. The annual apparent demand is expected to be in the range of 4.8% - 5.5%. A short - term cautious but long - term bullish view is maintained on Shanghai copper, and virtual inventory can be considered for establishment in the third quarter [1]. - For aluminum, supply increased slightly from January to May, and August is a seasonal off - season for demand. Inventory may continue to accumulate slightly in August. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand, as well as far - month and inside - outside reverse arbitrage opportunities under the low - inventory pattern [1][2]. - For zinc, the price fluctuated narrowly this week. Supply is expected to increase, demand is seasonally weak, and inventories at home and abroad show different trends. Short - term suggestions are to wait and see, pay attention to commodity sentiment, and manage positions. Inside - outside positive arbitrage can be held, and attention can be paid to month - spread positive arbitrage opportunities [5]. - For nickel, the supply of pure nickel remains high, demand is weak, and inventories at home and abroad are stable. The short - term fundamentals are average, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [6]. - For stainless steel, supply has been reduced, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventories have decreased slightly. The fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to policy trends [6][7]. - For lead, the price declined slightly this week. Supply and demand have small changes, and there are expectations of inventory accumulation. The price is expected to fluctuate between 16,800 and 17,500 next week [8][9]. - For tin, the price fluctuated widely. Supply may decline slightly in July - August, demand is weak, and the domestic market is in a situation of both supply and demand being weak. Short - term suggestions are to wait and see or short - sell lightly at high prices [12]. - For industrial silicon, the production of Hesheng may change the supply - demand balance. If the start - up rate does not recover significantly, the disk is expected to fluctuate. If the resumption of production accelerates, the supply will be in excess, and the price may decline [15]. - For lithium carbonate, the current situation is strong supply and demand, with significant inventory pressure in the intermediate links. The trading focus has shifted to potential supply disturbances. If the risks are resolved, the price may remain low and fluctuate [17]. 3. Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the spot premium of Shanghai copper decreased from 180 to 110, and the warehouse receipt increased by 251. The spot import profit increased by 216.25, and the three - month import profit increased by 203.83 [1]. - **Analysis**: The demand is currently weak, but the balance will be tight after August. The annual apparent demand is expected to be in the 4.8% - 5.5% range. A short - term cautious but long - term bullish view is maintained, and virtual inventory can be considered for establishment in the third quarter [1]. Aluminum - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 40, and the domestic alumina price increased by 1. The social inventory showed a small change, and the exchange inventory remained the same [1]. - **Analysis**: Supply increased slightly from January to May, August is a seasonal off - season for demand, and inventory may continue to accumulate slightly. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand and arbitrage opportunities [1][2]. Zinc - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the zinc price fluctuated narrowly. The domestic social inventory increased slightly, and the LME inventory decreased by 3,350. The import profit of Shanghai zinc increased [5]. - **Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase, demand is seasonally weak, and inventories at home and abroad show different trends. Short - term suggestions are to wait and see, pay attention to commodity sentiment, and manage positions. Inside - outside positive arbitrage can be held, and attention can be paid to month - spread positive arbitrage opportunities [5]. Nickel - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, and the price of Shanghai nickel decreased by 900. The import profit of spot nickel decreased by 660.34 [6]. - **Analysis**: The supply of pure nickel remains high, demand is weak, and inventories at home and abroad are stable. The short - term fundamentals are average, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [6]. Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the prices of 304 cold - rolled, 304 hot - rolled, 201 cold - rolled, and 430 cold - rolled stainless steel remained unchanged [6]. - **Analysis**: Supply has been reduced, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventories have decreased slightly. The fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to policy trends [6][7]. Lead - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the spot premium of lead increased by 10, and the LME inventory increased by 6,700. The import profit of spot lead increased by 71.14 [8]. - **Analysis**: The price declined slightly this week. Supply and demand have small changes, and there are expectations of inventory accumulation. The price is expected to fluctuate between 16,800 and 17,500 next week [8][9]. Tin - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the spot import profit of tin decreased by 2,016.08, and the LME inventory increased by 35. The LME C - 3M increased by 31 [12]. - **Analysis**: The price fluctuated widely. Supply may decline slightly in July - August, demand is weak, and the domestic market is in a situation of both supply and demand being weak. Short - term suggestions are to wait and see or short - sell lightly at high prices [12]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the 421 Yunnan basis and 421 Sichuan basis changed, and the 553 East China basis and 553 Tianjin basis also changed. The number of warehouse receipts changed slightly [15]. - **Analysis**: The production of Hesheng may change the supply - demand balance. If the start - up rate does not recover significantly, the disk is expected to fluctuate. If the resumption of production accelerates, the supply will be in excess, and the price may decline [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 750, and the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 700. The basis of the main contract increased by 1,530 [17]. - **Analysis**: The current situation is strong supply and demand, with significant inventory pressure in the intermediate links. The trading focus has shifted to potential supply disturbances. If the risks are resolved, the price may remain low and fluctuate [17].
策略动态跟踪报告:“反内卷”政策部署和市场定价行至何处?
Ping An Securities· 2025-07-30 02:59
Group 1 - The "anti-involution" policy has been progressively implemented since July, with a clear framework established by the Central Financial Committee, focusing on regulating low-price disorderly competition and promoting product quality improvement [2][5][6] - The revised Price Law strengthens the determination to govern low-price competition, introducing specific clauses targeting unfair pricing behaviors such as price collusion and price discrimination [5][6] - The scope of the "anti-involution" policy is expanding from emerging manufacturing sectors like photovoltaics and new energy vehicles to traditional cyclical industries such as coal, cement, and steel, as well as consumer sectors like internet platforms, pharmaceuticals, and finance [6][7] Group 2 - The capital market has reacted positively to the "anti-involution" policy, with significant increases in both equity and commodity markets, particularly in cyclical sectors, driven by rising inflation expectations [2][13][16] - From July 1 to July 25, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 4.3%, with cyclical sectors such as steel, building materials, and non-ferrous metals leading the gains, reflecting a strong market response to the policy [13][16] - The commodity market showed even greater elasticity, with the Nanhua Commodity Index increasing by 6.2%, and specific commodities like polysilicon and coking coal seeing price increases of 58.0% and 46.8%, respectively [16][17] Group 3 - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to improve industry fundamentals and inflation expectations, creating more investment opportunities, particularly in traditional cyclical industries and emerging manufacturing sectors [19][20] - The report suggests focusing on two main lines for investment: traditional cyclical industries (coal, non-ferrous metals, building materials, steel) and emerging manufacturing sectors (photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, pharmaceuticals) [20][21] - The ongoing policy implementation and market reactions indicate a potential for sustained investment opportunities as the market consensus continues to solidify [19][20]
“反内卷”引发债市调整,然后呢?
2025-07-30 02:32
Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the bond market and its relationship with commodity prices and macroeconomic factors, particularly in the context of recent market adjustments due to rising commodity prices and policy changes. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Indices Performance**: The Shanghai Composite Index surpassed 3,600 points, and the Nanhua Industrial Products Index increased by 8.5%, which has exerted pressure on the bond market [3][1]. 2. **Bond Yield Changes**: The yields on 10-year and 30-year government bonds rose by 9 basis points and 11 basis points, reaching 1.67% and 1.89% respectively [3][1]. 3. **Commodity Price Drivers**: The current rise in commodity prices is primarily driven by supply contraction expectations due to "anti-involution" policies rather than improvements in demand, which does not pose a significant downside risk to the bond market [5][1]. 4. **Historical Context**: - During the 2016 supply-side reform, commodity price increases did not significantly translate to CPI, allowing the central bank to maintain a loose monetary policy until October 2016 [5][1]. - From February to August 2021, rising international commodity prices increased PPI, but the central bank did not tighten significantly, leading to a decline in bond yield central [5][1]. - In September to October 2021, concerns over stagflation due to rising coal prices were alleviated when prices returned to reasonable levels, resulting in a decline in bond yields [5][1]. 5. **Current Market Sentiment**: - Bond yields are at absolute low levels, with insufficient downward momentum, and investors are more sensitive to negative news due to high market congestion [6][1]. - A rebound in risk appetite has suppressed bullish sentiment, with funds being diverted to equity and commodity markets [6][1]. - Expectations for loose monetary policy are diminishing, contributing to the current market adjustment [6][1]. 6. **Short-term Trading Outlook**: Long-term interest rates currently offer a certain value proposition, and new regulations limiting futures positions have dampened bullish sentiment in commodities, creating some recovery opportunities. However, market risk appetite fluctuations and ongoing uncertainties regarding growth policies and US-China trade negotiations suggest limited short-term trading space, necessitating cautious entry timing [7][2]. Other Important Insights - The impact of commodity price changes on the bond market is complex and varies depending on the underlying causes of price increases, which can influence central bank actions and market performance differently [4][1]. - The current adjustment in the bond market is seen as similar to past instances where commodity price fluctuations did not lead to significant tightening of monetary policy, indicating a potential for recovery if conditions stabilize [5][1].
建信期货铁矿石日评-20250730
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 02:30
Report Information - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: July 30, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The recent rise in iron ore prices is mainly due to the spill - over effect of rising steel prices. From a long - term perspective, the center of ore prices has risen. However, the black sector may face an overall correction, and iron ore prices will follow suit. It is recommended to take profits on long - term contracts after the rebound and pay attention to policy implementation [10][11][12] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Futures Market**: On July 29, the main 2509 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated strongly, opened lower, rebounded after a slight decline, turned from a loss to a gain, and closed at 798.0 yuan/ton, up 0.63%. Other steel futures also showed different trends, with RB2510 up 1.98%, HC2510 up 2.01%, and SS2509 down 0.12% [7][5] - **Spot Market**: On July 29, the main iron ore foreign market quotes increased by $1.5/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port were raised by 5 - 15 yuan/ton [9] - **Technical Indicators**: The daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2509 contract continued to decline; the red column of the daily MACD indicator of the iron ore 2509 contract narrowed for 5 consecutive trading days [9] 2. Future Outlook - **Influence of Policies**: The recent black - sector market is mainly affected by the "anti - involution" policy. Iron ore may experience a decline in demand due to steel mill production cuts, and the recent price increase is mainly due to the spill - over effect of rising steel prices. From a long - term perspective, the center of ore prices has risen [10][11] - **Supply Side**: Last week, Australia's shipping volume rebounded, and Brazil's shipping volume was basically the same as the previous week. The total shipping volume recovered after a seasonal decline. Currently, the weekly shipping volume of 19 ports in Australia and Brazil is around 27 million tons, and the arrival volume last week dropped to 22.405 million tons. Considering shipping schedules, the arrival volume may fluctuate at this level until mid - August [11] - **Demand Side**: Downstream steel demand is in a seasonal decline, and hot metal production has slightly decreased but remains above 2.4 million tons. Steel mill profitability has increased, and steel mills are maintaining high - volume production. The subsequent production - cut process is expected to be slow, which will support ore prices [11] - **Short - term Forecast**: The current futures price is mainly affected by macro - sentiment. In the short term, the ore price has rebounded due to Sino - US negotiations and the Politburo meeting. However, considering the reversal of coking coal trends and the ebbing of anti - involution hype, the black sector may face a correction, and ore prices will follow [12] 3. Industry News - On July 29, China Chang'an Automobile Group Co., Ltd. was included in the list of central enterprises directly managed by the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council. Zhu Huarong was appointed as the Party Secretary and Chairman of China Chang'an Automobile Group Co., Ltd. [13] - On July 28, Jiangxi Province successfully issued the seventh batch of government bonds on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with a total scale of 27.255 billion yuan, including 14.743 billion yuan in new special bonds [13] 4. Data Overview - The report provides various data charts related to the iron ore and steel industry, including prices, shipping volumes, arrival volumes, inventory, production, and consumption [19][22][23][28][30][34][39][40]