Summary of Glass Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The glass industry is currently experiencing a turbulent phase, with expectations for a potential rebound in the fourth quarter of 2025. However, a fundamental reversal in the long-term trend appears unlikely due to persistent challenges in the real estate market, supply-side constraints, and significant inventory pressures [2][5][9]. Key Points and Arguments - **Inventory and Price Dynamics**: In H1 2025, glass inventory in Hubei increased by 44% year-on-year, leading to a decline in futures prices. The futures market is under pressure due to regional price arbitrage in the spot market [1][2]. - **Cost and Losses**: Futures prices fell below the cash flow cost of petroleum coke facilities in Hubei by 25%, resulting in severe losses that contributed to a recent price rebound [1][3]. - **Production Capacity**: Current daily production capacity stands at 158,000 tons, the lowest in five years, but only a 10-12% reduction from historical peaks. Approximately 22% of production facilities have been operational for 8-10 years and are nearing a cold repair period [1][6]. - **Market Expectations**: The market is expected to remain volatile in Q3 2025, with no significant recovery in the real estate sector to drive demand. If demand does not improve and inventory continues to accumulate, market-driven production cuts may occur in Q4 without government intervention [1][6][9]. - **Future Supply Needs**: To achieve supply-demand balance, the industry needs to reduce production by about 10%. Current supply is estimated at 4.5-4.7 million tons, necessitating an increase of approximately 500,000 tons to reach a demand level of 5 million tons [3][8]. - **Regulatory Impact**: The establishment of a unified national market and related policies may reduce ineffective competition and encourage the exit of low-quality production capacities, which could have a positive long-term impact on the industry [5][10]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Feedback Loop**: The main factors affecting the negative feedback loop in the glass industry include a weak real estate market, lack of significant production cuts, and ongoing inventory pressures. Breaking this cycle requires effective production cuts or sustained demand improvement, neither of which is currently in place [9][10]. - **Production Decisions**: The industry typically avoids production cuts in H1 due to seasonal demand, with reductions more likely in Q3 or Q4 when many facilities reach their operational limits and require maintenance [11][12]. - **Cost Structure**: The cash costs for petroleum coke and natural gas are approximately 1,200-1,220 RMB and 1,300-1,350 RMB, respectively, while coal gas is cheaper at about 950-1,000 RMB. Current glass prices are around 1,000 RMB, close to the bottom [13][14]. - **Profitability Context**: Despite current losses of about 200 RMB per ton, the glass industry has historically seen profits exceeding 30% from 2016 to 2021, indicating that supply decisions are more influenced by cash flow and operational age rather than immediate profitability [15]. Regional Supply Disturbances - In the Shahe region, coal-to-gas projects are underway but face operational instability. Hubei plans to phase out petroleum coke facilities over the next few years, increasing the proportion of clean energy, although no definitive timeline has been established [16][17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current geopolitical risks in the crude oil market remain uncertain. Although OPEC has increased production slightly more than expected, the fundamentals are still in a tight - balance, with the market in a long - short game between strong reality and weak expectations. Investors are advised to control risks and wait and see [2]. - For methanol, the upstream maintenance has increased, and the start - up rate has fallen from a high level. The demand side is weak, and the spot valuation is still high. In the off - season, the upside space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - Regarding urea, the domestic supply and demand are acceptable, the price has support at the bottom, but the upside space is also limited by high supply. It is more advisable to pay attention to short - long opportunities on dips [4]. - For rubber, NR and RU have risen significantly, but they should guard against the risk of correction. The overall tire start - up rate is relatively high, and it is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view in the second half of the year, with a neutral - to - long or neutral short - term view [7][8][10]. - For PVC, the supply is strong and the demand is weak. The disk's main logic is the transition from destocking to stockpiling. Although it has strengthened recently following the black building materials sector, it will still face pressure in the future [12]. - For benzene - ethylene, there are different views from both long and short sides. The short - term geopolitical impact has subsided, and the price is expected to fluctuate following the cost side [13][14]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to fluctuate due to global trade policy uncertainties and seasonal off - season factors [17]. - For polypropylene, the price is expected to be bearish in July due to the supply - demand weakness in the seasonal off - season [18]. - For PX, after the end of the maintenance season, the load remains high. In the third quarter, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, it is expected to continue destocking. It is recommended to pay attention to long opportunities on dips following crude oil [20][21]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to increase, and the demand is under pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to long opportunities on dips following PX [22]. - For ethylene glycol, the Saudi plant's unexpected situation is expected to make it run strongly in the short term, but the fundamentals are weak in the long term [23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Situation**: WTI主力原油期货收跌1.92美元，跌幅2.79%，报66.83美元；布伦特主力原油期货收跌1.49美元，跌幅2.11%，报69.14美元；INE主力原油期货收涨13.60元，涨幅2.65%，报527.5元 [5]. - **Data**: China's weekly crude oil data shows that the crude oil arrival inventory increased by 0.75 million barrels to 206.30 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 0.36%. Gasoline commercial inventory increased by 1.86 million barrels to 89.83 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 2.12%. Diesel commercial inventory increased by 1.76 million barrels to 102.59 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 1.75%. Total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 3.63 million barrels to 192.42 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 1.92% [5]. Methanol - **Market Situation**: On July 14, the 09 contract rose by 26 yuan/ton, reporting 2396 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose by 12 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 16 [2]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Upstream maintenance has increased, and the start - up rate has fallen from a high level. The overseas device start - up rate has returned to the middle - high level. The demand side is in the off - season, with the port olefin load reduction and the traditional demand start - up rate falling [2]. Urea - **Market Situation**: On July 14, the 09 contract fell by 9 yuan/ton, reporting 1764 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell by 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 46 [4]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The domestic start - up rate has increased slightly, with a daily output of 19.9 tons. The demand side, such as compound fertilizer start - up rate, has bottomed out and rebounded, and the export collection is still continuing [4]. Rubber - **Market Situation**: NR and RU have risen significantly [7]. - **Industry Data**: As of July 10, 2025, the full - steel tire start - up load of Shandong tire enterprises was 64.54%, 0.81 percentage points higher than last week and 5.59 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The semi - steel tire start - up load of domestic tire enterprises was 72.55%, 2.51 percentage points higher than last week and 6.36 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of June 29, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 129.3 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.7 tons, an increase of 0.6% [8]. PVC - **Market Situation**: The PVC09 contract rose by 30 yuan, reporting 5010 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4850 (- 10) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 160 (- 40) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 113 (- 1) yuan/ton [12]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The overall start - up rate of PVC this week was 77%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%. The demand side was weak, and the domestic start - up rate was still lower than in previous years and was gradually entering the off - season. Exports were expected to weaken [12]. Benzene - Ethylene - **Market Situation**: Spot prices and futures prices have risen, and the basis has weakened [14]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The cost side of pure benzene start - up rate has increased, and the supply is relatively abundant. The supply side of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation profit has decreased, but the benzene - ethylene start - up rate has continued to rise. The port inventory has increased, and the demand side is in the seasonal off - season [14]. Polyethylene - **Market Situation**: Futures prices have fallen [17]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Global trade policy uncertainties have returned. The spot price has fallen, and the PE valuation has limited downward space. The trader inventory is fluctuating at a high level, and the demand side is in the seasonal off - season [17]. Polypropylene - **Market Situation**: Futures prices have fallen [18]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the start - up rate is expected to gradually recover. The demand side is in the seasonal off - season, with the downstream start - up rate seasonally fluctuating downward [18]. PX - **Market Situation**: The PX09 contract rose by 84 yuan, reporting 6778 yuan. The PX CFR rose by 15 dollars, reporting 852 dollars, and the basis was 243 (+ 42) yuan, with the 9 - 1 spread of 94 (+ 20) yuan [20]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: China's PX load was 81.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3%. Asian load was 73.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%. The PTA load was 79.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5% [20]. PTA - **Market Situation**: The PTA09 contract rose by 40 yuan, reporting 4740 yuan. The East China spot price rose by 25 yuan, reporting 4735 yuan, with a basis of 8 (+ 8) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 40 (+ 2) yuan [22]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The PTA load was 79.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5%. The downstream load was 88.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.4% [22]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Situation**: The EG09 contract rose by 52 yuan, reporting 4357 yuan. The East China spot price rose by 14 yuan, reporting 4398 yuan, with a basis of 67 (+ 2), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 12 (+ 14) yuan [23]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The ethylene glycol load was 68.1%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5%. The downstream load was 88.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.4%. The port inventory decreased by 2.7 tons to 55.3 tons [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - This week, steel price fluctuations increased again, with significant increases in rebar and hot-rolled coil prices and a weakening of the basis. The black prices started to stabilize in June due to environmental inspections and production cuts in coking coal. Market sentiment improved in July, leading to a general increase in commodities. The fundamentals show that weekly steel production decreased with the decline in apparent demand, and inventory remained flat in July, indicating a balanced supply and demand situation. In the second half of the year, demand is likely to decline, and the supply will remain abundant, resulting in insufficient price increase momentum. Currently, low inventory and improved market sentiment support valuation repair trading, but the upward elasticity of actual demand is limited. The next macro observation window is the Politburo meeting at the end of July. [1] Iron Ore Industry - Last week, the iron ore 09 contract showed a strong upward trend. Fundamentally, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased week-on-week, while the arrival volume at 45 ports slightly increased. The subsequent average arrival volume is expected to continue to decline. On the demand side, due to increased steel mill maintenance and production restrictions in Tangshan, the pig iron output decreased from its high level but remained at around 240,000 tons per day. In the short term, the resilience of pig iron production will be maintained. Although the terminal demand faces the risk of weakening in the off-season, the current export rush provides some support. In the future, the pig iron output in July will continue to decline, with an average expected to be maintained at 230,000 - 240,000 tons, and steel mill profits will continue to improve. In the short term, iron ore will fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to buy on dips for single-side operations and conduct a 9 - 1 calendar spread long operation. [4] Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Last week, the coke and coking coal futures showed strong upward trends. For coke, the fourth round of price cuts was implemented on June 23, and the market expects the first round of price increases to be implemented soon. On the supply side, some coal mines and coking plants have resumed production, but the overall production recovery is slow. On the demand side, due to environmental production restrictions in Tangshan, the operating rates of independent coking plants and blast furnaces decreased slightly. In July, the pig iron output may remain at 230,000 - 240,000 tons per day. For coking coal, the spot market showed a bottoming - out and rebound trend. The overall production recovery of coal mines was slow, and the supply was still in short supply. The price of imported Mongolian coal rebounded slightly, and the port inventory pressure decreased. It is recommended to conduct a calendar spread long operation for both coke and coking coal and buy on dips for single - side operations. [7] 3. Summary by Catalog Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts increased to varying degrees. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China increased from 3190 yuan/ton to 3220 yuan/ton, and the spot price of hot - rolled coil in East China increased from 3280 yuan/ton to 3300 yuan/ton. [1] Cost and Profit - The prices of steel billets and plate billets increased, and the costs of different types of steel production also changed. The profits of steel products in different regions showed varying degrees of increase, such as the East China hot - rolled coil profit increasing by 50 yuan/ton to 223 yuan/ton. [1] Supply - The daily average pig iron output decreased by 1.2 tons to 239.8 tons, a decrease of 0.5%. The production of five major steel products decreased by 12.4 tons to 872.7 tons, a decrease of 1.4%. The production of rebar and hot - rolled coil also decreased. [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products remained basically unchanged, with a slight decrease in rebar inventory and a slight increase in hot - rolled coil inventory. [1] Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 1.5 tons to 10.1 tons, a decrease of 12.7%. The apparent demands of five major steel products, rebar, and hot - rolled coil all decreased. [1] Iron Ore Industry Price and Spread - The basis of different iron ore varieties for the 09 contract changed, with some increasing and some decreasing. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 0.5 to - 47.0, an increase of 1.1%, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 0.5 to 27.5, a decrease of 1.8%. [4] Supply - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 120.9 tons to 2483.9 tons, an increase of 5.1%, while the global shipment volume decreased by 362.7 tons to 2994.9 tons, a decrease of 10.8%. The national monthly import volume decreased by 500.3 tons to 9813.1 tons, a decrease of 4.9%. [4] Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.0 tons to 239.8 tons, a decrease of 0.4%. The national monthly pig iron and crude steel production increased slightly. [4] Inventory - The inventory at 45 ports decreased by 56.8 tons to 13765.89 tons, a decrease of 0.4%, while the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 61.1 tons to 8979.6 tons, an increase of 0.7%. [4] Coke and Coking Coal Industry Price and Spread - The prices of coke and coking coal futures increased, and the basis of different contracts decreased. For example, the coke 09 contract increased by 23 yuan/ton to 1520 yuan/ton, and the coking coal 09 contract increased by 16 yuan/ton to 897 yuan/ton. [7] Supply - The daily average coke production of the full - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills decreased. The weekly production of raw coal and clean coal in Fenwei sample coal mines increased slightly. [7] Demand - The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.0 tons to 239.8 tons, a decrease of 0.4%. The daily average coke production of the full - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills also decreased. [7] Inventory - The total coke inventory increased slightly, with a significant decrease in the coking plant inventory and an increase in the port inventory. The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased, while the inventories of the full - sample coking plants and ports increased. [7]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - Last week, Shanghai copper continued to decline, with the main contract of Shanghai copper falling 1.63% to close at 78,430 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariff issues affected copper prices, and there were still many global uncertainties. In China, consumption entered the off - season, and downstream consumption willingness was average. In the industrial sector, domestic spot trading was general, mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory was 108,725 tons, showing a slight increase last week, while SHFE copper inventory decreased by 3,127 tons to 81,462 tons [4]. - The supply - demand balance of copper in 2024 is in a tight balance, and there will be an oversupply in 2025 [11]. 3) Summary by Directory a) Market Review - Shanghai copper continued to decline last week, with the main contract falling 1.63% to 78,430 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariff issues affected copper prices, and downstream consumption entered the off - season. Domestic spot trading was mainly for rigid demand. LME inventory increased slightly, and SHFE inventory decreased by 3,127 tons [4]. b) Fundamentals - **PMI**: No detailed information provided [9]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of copper in 2024 is in a tight balance, and there will be an oversupply in 2025. The China annual supply - demand balance table shows specific data from 2018 - 2024 [11][14]. - **Inventory**: LME copper inventory was 108,725 tons, showing a slight increase last week, while SHFE copper inventory decreased by 3,127 tons to 81,462 tons. The bonded area inventory remained at a low level [4][18]. c) Market Structure - **Processing Fees**: Processing fees were at a low level [21]. - **CFTC Positioning**: CFTC non - commercial net long positions flowed out [23]. - **Futures - Spot Price Difference**: No detailed information provided [26]. - **Import Profit**: No detailed information provided [29]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: No detailed information provided.

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with limited trading opportunities on the market) [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, suggesting a short - term balanced state with poor market operability, advising to wait and see) [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Not explicitly rated, assumed to follow the general fuel - oil situation [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with limited trading opportunities on the market) [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with limited trading opportunities on the market) [1] Core Viewpoints - The international oil price declined overnight, and the SC08 contract dropped 1.65% during the day. The uncertainty in the economy and oil demand persists due to the flip - flopping of tariff policies. The supply - demand balance will face pressure from production resumption and a decline in demand in the fourth quarter [2]. - The fuel - oil futures followed the decline of crude oil. The high - sulfur fuel oil has weak demand and the supply risk is lifted, while the low - sulfur fuel oil lacks obvious demand drivers [2]. - Asphalt showed the strongest resistance to decline among oil - product futures. The inventory pattern has changed, and the demand recovery is expected to be delayed [3]. - The international LPG market has a loose supply. The import cost decline promotes PDH profit repair, but the market will maintain a low - level oscillation [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices went down, with the SC08 contract dropping 1.65% during the day. Trump's threat to increase tariffs on Brazil and the uncertainty of tariff policies affect economic and oil demand. OPEC+ may pause production increase after September, but production resumption and a demand decline in Q4 will pressure supply - demand. The market is supported by the strong physical market in the peak season and the expectation of Russian oil sanctions, but the upside space above $70/barrel for Brent is limited [2]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - As crude oil fell today, fuel - oil futures declined. High - sulfur fuel oil has weak demand in shipping and deep - processing, and the demand from power generation in the Middle East and North Africa is insufficient. The supply risk is lifted as the Middle East conflict eases. Low - sulfur fuel oil's supply advantage from the coking profit decline fades, and the demand lacks a clear driver [2]. Asphalt - Crude oil futures declined today, and asphalt showed the strongest resistance among oil - product futures. The actual production in June exceeded the plan, and the inventory shifted from destocking to stocking in late June. The accumulated shipment of 54 sample refineries has increased significantly year - on - year. The demand recovery is expected to be delayed due to high - temperature and rainy weather. The current asphalt price mainly follows the crude - oil direction, and the BU crack spread rebounded today [3]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The international LPG market has a loose supply. Although crude oil has strengthened recently, LPG prices are stable. The new maintenance last week led to a decline in chemical demand, while the decline in import cost promoted PDH profit repair. The market will maintain a low - level oscillation due to the supply pressure in summer and limited upward momentum [4].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-7-11 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、下游玻璃盘面回升，提振纯碱市场情绪。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修零星启动，供给仍处高位；下游浮法和光伏玻璃日熔量平稳，终端需求一 般，纯碱厂库下滑但仍处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1194元/吨，SA2509收盘价为1231元/吨，基差为-37元，期货 升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存186.34万吨，较前一周增加2.98%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方运行，20日线向上；偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，短期预计低位震荡运行为主。 利空： 主要逻辑和风险点 1、主要逻辑：纯碱 ...

Report Overview - Report Name: PTA&MEG Morning Report - July 11, 2025 - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department - Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0015557 - Contact Information: 0575 - 85226759 Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - PTA: The short - term driving force is weak, and the price follows the cost fluctuation. The supply is expected to increase in July, while the terminal demand is in the off - season, and the polyester factories have inventory pressure, which is negative for the PTA spot market [5]. - MEG: The supply - demand structure is gradually changing, with an obvious inventory accumulation expectation in the third quarter. The price will be mainly sorted in the low - range, and attention should be paid to the return efficiency of the supply side and cost changes [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review No relevant content provided. 2. Daily Tips - **PTA Daily View** - Fundamental: The PTA futures followed the cost side to fluctuate and close higher. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis weakened. The 7 - month cargo was traded at 09 + 0~20, and the price negotiation range was around 4720 - 4750. The current mainstream spot basis is 09 + 7 [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 4735, and the 09 - contract basis is - 7, with the futures price at a premium [5]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 3.95 days, a decrease of 0.14 days compared to the previous period [5]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [5]. - Main Position: The net short position is decreasing [5]. - Expectation: In July, there are few maintenance plans, and the Sanfangxiang PTA device is expected to be put into production. The supply increases year - on - year, while the terminal demand is in the off - season, and the polyester factories have inventory pressure. The PTA spot market is bearish, and the price follows the cost [5]. - **MEG Daily View** - Fundamental: On Thursday, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated upward, and the market trading was acceptable. The intraday disk fluctuated upward, and the near - term cargo negotiation was around a premium of 68 - 71 yuan/ton over the 09 - contract. The afternoon spot was traded at a high of 4400 yuan/ton [6]. - Basis: The spot price is 4386, and the 09 - contract basis is 61, with the futures price at a discount [7]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 53.20 tons, an increase of 2.73 tons compared to the previous period [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [7]. - Main Position: The net short position is decreasing [6]. - Expectation: The supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol is gradually changing, with an obvious inventory accumulation expectation in the third quarter. The price will be mainly sorted in the low - range, and attention should be paid to the return efficiency of the supply side and cost changes [6]. 3. Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the PTA production capacity, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [12]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the ethylene glycol total production, supply, polyester consumption, and port inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [13]. - **Price and Basis Data**: It includes the price changes of spot and futures of PTA, MEG, and related products on July 10 and July 9, 2025, as well as the basis and profit data [14]. 5. Influence Factor Summary - **Positive Factors**: The PX operating rate remains at a high level [9]. - **Negative Factors**: Iran confirmed a cease - fire, and the terminal demand is in a downward trend due to the end of the export rush and the off - season of domestic demand [10]. 6. Current Main Logic and Risk Points The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level, and there is still an inventory accumulation expectation at the raw material end. Attention should be paid to the upper resistance level after the disk rebounds [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current geopolitical risks in the crude oil market are still uncertain. Although OPEC has increased production slightly more than expected, the current fundamentals remain in a tight - balance. Crude oil is in a long - short game between strong reality and weak expectations. It is recommended that investors control risks and adopt a wait - and - see approach [2] - Methanol is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. With the improvement of domestic commodity sentiment, the upward and downward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [3] - The supply and demand of domestic urea are acceptable, and the price has support at the bottom, but the upside is also restricted by high supply. The current valuation is neutral to low, and it is more advisable to pay attention to short - long opportunities on dips [5] - For rubber, it is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the second half of the year. Adopt a long - term bullish mindset, build positions opportunistically, and use a neutral - to - bullish short - term strategy [8][12] - PVC is expected to have strong supply and weak demand. The main logic of the market is inventory reduction and weakening. It will be under pressure in the future [14] - The price of styrene is expected to fluctuate following the cost side [17] - The price of polyethylene is expected to remain volatile [19] - The price of polypropylene is expected to be bearish in July [20] - For PX, after the end of the maintenance season, the load remains high. It is expected to continue to reduce inventory in the third quarter. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil [23] - For PTA, the supply is expected to continue to accumulate inventory, and the demand side is slightly under pressure. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [24] - For ethylene glycol, the fundamentals are weak, and pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rallies [25] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures fell $1.42, or 2.08%, to $66.87; Brent main crude oil futures fell $1.30, or 1.85%, to $68.88; INE main crude oil futures rose 2.80 yuan, or 0.54%, to 522.5 yuan [1] - **Data**: Singapore ESG weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventory decreased by 0.37 million barrels to 12.00 million barrels, a 2.97% decrease; diesel inventory decreased by 0.15 million barrels to 9.74 million barrels, a 1.51% decrease; fuel oil inventory increased by 1.33 million barrels to 24.71 million barrels, a 5.68% increase; total refined oil inventory increased by 0.81 million barrels to 46.46 million barrels, a 1.78% increase [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 10, the 09 contract rose 26 yuan/ton to 2398 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 15 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 8 [3] - **Supply**: Domestic operating rate continued to decline by 3.89%, coal - to - methanol profit increased slightly, and overseas plant operating rate returned to medium - high levels [3] - **Demand**: Port MTO load decreased slightly, traditional demand operating rates varied, and it is currently the off - season. Downstream profit levels are generally low, and methanol valuation is still high [3] - **Inventory**: Both port and enterprise inventories increased during the off - season [3] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 10, the 09 contract rose 7 yuan/ton to 1777 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 53 [5] - **Supply**: Domestic operating rate increased slightly, with a daily output of 19.6 tons, and the overall corporate profit is at a medium - low level [5] - **Demand**: The operating rate of compound fertilizers has bottomed out and rebounded, and exports are still ongoing. Future demand is concentrated in compound fertilizers and exports [5] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: Due to the bullish expectations in the real estate market, most industrial products rose, and NR and RU rose significantly [8] - **Long - Short Views**: Bulls believe that factors in Southeast Asia may lead to rubber production cuts, and rubber usually rises in the second half of the year. Bears think that the macro - economic outlook has deteriorated, demand is in the off - season, and the production cut may be less than expected [8] - **Industry Situation**: As of July 10, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 64.54%, up 0.81 percentage points from last week and 5.59 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 72.55%, up 2.51 percentage points from last week and down 6.36 percentage points from the same period last year. Tire enterprises' shipment rhythm has slowed down, and inventory is under pressure [9] - **Inventory**: As of June 29, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 129.3 tons, a 0.6% increase; the total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 78.9 tons, a 1.2% increase; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 50.5 tons, a 0.3% decrease. As of July 7, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 50.52 (- 0.14) tons [10] - **Spot Prices**: Thai standard mixed rubber was 14150 (+ 300) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1735 (+ 30) dollars, STR20 mixed was 1740 (+ 30) dollars, Jiangsu and Zhejiang butadiene was 9100 (+ 50) yuan, and North China butadiene was 11200 (0) yuan [11] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 77 yuan to 5040 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4860 (+ 70) yuan/ton, the basis was - 180 (- 7) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 103 (- 8) yuan/ton [14] - **Cost**: The price of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2250 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 620 (- 10) yuan/ton, ethylene was 820 (0) dollars/ton, and the cost remained flat. The spot price of caustic soda was 820 (+ 10) yuan/ton [14] - **Supply**: The overall PVC operating rate was 77.4%, a 0.7% decrease; among them, the calcium carbide method was 80.8%, a 0.2% decrease; the ethylene method was 68.5%, a 1.9% decrease [14] - **Demand**: The overall downstream operating rate was 42.9%, a 0.1% increase [14] - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 38.6 tons (- 0.9), and social inventory was 59.2 tons (+ 1.7) [14] Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Spot prices remained unchanged, while futures prices rose, and the basis weakened [17] - **Cost**: The operating rate of pure benzene increased, and the supply was relatively abundant [17] - **Supply**: The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation increased, and the operating rate of styrene continued to rise. Port inventory increased [17] - **Demand**: In the off - season, the overall operating rate of the three S products decreased [17] Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices rose. The spot price remained unchanged, and the PE valuation has limited downward space [19] - **Supply**: The upstream operating rate was 77.82%, a 0.34% increase. Production enterprise inventory increased by 5.47 tons to 49.31 tons, and trader inventory decreased by 0.09 tons to 6.05 tons [19] - **Demand**: In the off - season, the demand for agricultural films was weak, and the overall operating rate fluctuated downward [19] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices rose [20] - **Supply**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the operating rate is expected to gradually recover, increasing the supply of propylene [20] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate decreased seasonally. In the off - season, both supply and demand are weak, and the price is expected to be bearish in July [20] PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose 58 yuan to 6782 yuan, and PX CFR rose 2 dollars to 852 dollars. The basis was 240 yuan (- 45), and the 9 - 1 spread was 64 yuan (- 10) [22] - **Supply**: The operating rate in China was 81%, a 2.8% decrease; the Asian operating rate was 74.1%, a 1.1% increase. Some domestic plants reduced production, while some overseas plants restarted or increased loads [22] - **Demand**: The PTA operating rate was 79.7%, a 1.5% increase [22] - **Inventory**: In late May, the inventory was 434.6 tons, a 16.5 - ton decrease from the previous month [23] - **Valuation**: PXN was 261 dollars (+ 9), and the naphtha crack spread was 84 dollars (+ 11) [23] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 24 yuan to 4742 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 15 yuan to 4735 yuan. The basis was 7 yuan (- 29), and the 9 - 1 spread was 12 yuan (- 16) [24] - **Supply**: The PTA operating rate was 79.7%, a 1.5% increase. Some plants increased production, and a plant in Taiwan, China restarted [24] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate was 88.9%, a 1.3% decrease. Some plants restarted or underwent maintenance [24] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 213.5 tons, a 1.9 - ton increase [24] - **Valuation**: The spot processing fee of PTA decreased by 24 yuan to 128 yuan, and the futures processing fee decreased by 14 yuan to 293 yuan [24] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 42 yuan to 4325 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 27 yuan to 4374 yuan. The basis was 70 (- 1), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 33 yuan (- 4) [25] - **Supply**: The EG operating rate was 68.1%, a 1.5% increase; among them, the syngas - based method was 73.1%, a 3.8% increase; the ethylene - based method was 64.2%, a 0.6% decrease. Some domestic and overseas plants restarted [25] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate was 88.9%, a 1.3% decrease. Some plants restarted or underwent maintenance [25] - **Inventory**: The import forecast was 9.6 tons, and the East China port outbound volume on July 9 was 1.24 tons. Port inventory increased by 3.5 tons to 58 tons [25] - **Valuation**: The profit of naphtha - based production was - 644 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production was - 704 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production was 951 yuan [25]

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in June increased by 0.1% year-on-year, ending a four-month decline, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, indicating a mixed price trend in the economy [3][4][16] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.7% year-on-year, marking a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous month and reaching a 14-month high, reflecting improvements in supply-demand structures in certain industries [3][17] - The persistent low prices in the market are attributed to an oversupply situation, which could lead to a negative cycle affecting corporate expectations and investment, potentially dragging the economy into a "low inflation trap" [5][18] Group 2 - The decline in PPI is primarily driven by seasonal factors and the construction progress of infrastructure projects, along with an oversupply of raw materials like steel and cement, which has negatively impacted production material prices [4][17] - Key factors contributing to the current supply-demand imbalance include a decline in real estate investment, high tariff barriers affecting exports, and weak consumer income expectations leading to insufficient consumption willingness [4][18] - The overall economic recovery is influenced by a combination of supportive incremental policies and complex external environments, with expectations for CPI to show a trend of low-to-high throughout the year [8][10]

Core Viewpoint - The decision by President Trump to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper is shocking in both timing and scale, significantly impacting the copper market and global supply chain [1][4][6]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following the announcement of the tariff, COMEX copper prices surged by 17%, reaching historic highs, while LME copper prices experienced volatility, with a price range between $9,769.50 and $9,553.00 per ton [1][4]. - Analysts predict that the price differential between New York and London copper will continue to widen, potentially reaching 50% as U.S. importers rush to purchase copper ahead of the tariff implementation [5][6]. Group 2: Supply Chain Implications - The U.S. is heavily reliant on copper imports, with the U.S. Geological Survey estimating a consumption of 3.4 million tons in 2024, nearly half of which will be imported [1][2]. - The U.S. domestic copper production is only 1.1 million tons, a 3% decline year-on-year, which is minimal compared to the global production of 23 million tons [1][2]. Group 3: Long-term Industry Outlook - Analysts express concerns that the U.S. has underinvested in copper mining and refining for decades, making self-sufficiency nearly impossible in the short term [2]. - The International Energy Agency forecasts global copper demand to reach 26.7 million tons in 2024, with a 7% increase over the past three years and a projected 17% growth by 2030 [4]. Group 4: Economic Impact on U.S. Companies - U.S. companies are expected to bear the brunt of the tariff, leading to increased costs for copper, especially as the dollar has depreciated by approximately 15% this year [6][7]. - The uncertainty created by the tariff announcement has left many in the copper trading and production sectors confused, with potential negative implications for all domestic copper consumers [7].