1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, Shanghai copper prices rose first and then fell. The main contract of Shanghai copper decreased by 1.42%, closing at 79,910 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariff issues affected copper prices, and global instability persists. Domestically, the consumption season is approaching, but downstream consumption willingness is average. In the industrial sector, domestic spot trading is mediocre, mainly driven by rigid demand. In terms of inventory, LME copper inventory was 148,875 tons, with a slight decrease last week, while SHFE copper inventory increased by 11,760 tons to 105,814 tons compared to the previous week [3]. - The copper market will be in a tight balance in 2024 and face an oversupply in 2025 [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai copper decreased by 1.42%, closing at 79,910 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariff issues affected copper prices, and global instability persists. Domestically, the consumption season is approaching, but downstream consumption willingness is average. In the industrial sector, domestic spot trading is mediocre, mainly driven by rigid demand. LME copper inventory was 148,875 tons, with a slight decrease last week, while SHFE copper inventory increased by 11,760 tons to 105,814 tons compared to the previous week [3]. 3.2 Fundamentals 3.2.1 PMI - No specific content about PMI is provided in the report. 3.2.2 Supply - Demand Balance - The copper market will be in a tight balance in 2024 and face an oversupply in 2025. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data from 2018 to 2024 [10][13]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Exchange inventory is in the process of destocking, and bonded area inventory remains at a low level [14][18]. 3.3 Market Structure 3.3.1 Processing Fees - Processing fees are at a low level [21]. 3.3.2 CFTC Positions - There is an outflow of non - commercial net long positions in CFTC [23]. 3.3.3 Futures - Spot Price Spread - No specific content about the futures - spot price spread is provided in the report. 3.3.4 Import Profits - No specific content about import profits is provided in the report. 3.3.5 Warehouse Receipts - No specific content about warehouse receipts is provided in the report.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - fiber: In the short - term, it is a volatile market, and in the medium - term, it is weak. In September, the supply and demand are both strong. With low prices, the replenishment support is strong, but the cost support is insufficient, showing a unilateral volatile and weak trend. The recommended strategy is to hold the inter - period positive spread [7]. - Bottle chips: The cost support is insufficient, showing a volatile and weak trend. In September, the supply increases while the demand decreases. The low - price procurement support is strong, but there is a risk of inventory accumulation in the future. The recommended strategy is to go long on TA and short on PR in the far - month contract [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Short - fiber (PF) 1.1 Valuation and Profit - The current spot premium is 1000 - 1100 yuan/ton, which is relatively high; the disk processing fee is 970 yuan/ton, and the processing fee and inter - month spread valuations are basically reasonable, while the basis is high [7]. 1.2 Fundamental Operation - Supply: The factory's average operating rate has slightly increased to 95.4%, and the spinning direct - spun polyester staple fiber operating rate is 98%. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 93% - 95% in the future [7]. - Demand: In the second half of the week, when the price dropped to a low level, downstream procurement increased. The short - fiber inventory decreased, with the 1.4D equity inventory at 7.8 days and the physical inventory at 18 days. In September, the downstream operating load increased month - on - month, and each link was in the trend of seasonal inventory reduction [7]. 1.3 Strategy - Unilateral: None - Inter - period: Hold the inter - period positive spread - Cross - variety: None [7] 2. Bottle chips (PR) 2.1 Valuation and Profit - The spot processing fee is 450 yuan/ton, and the processing fees of the October and November disk contracts are 400 - 420 yuan/ton, all of which are over - estimated [8]. 2.2 Fundamental Operation - Supply: The factory maintains production cuts, with the operating rate at around 81%. The new Fuhai plant is expected to be put into operation in late October or at the end of the month [8]. - Demand: Domestically, the beverage factory's operating rate has dropped to around 85%. The inventory of bottle - chip factories has slightly decreased to 14.5 days. The export volume is expected to maintain at around 600,000 tons in August and September [8]. 2.3 Strategy - Unilateral: None - Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: Go long on TA and short on PR in the far - month contract [8] 3. Cost and Raw Materials - PTA: It is operating weakly, and the warehouse receipts are continuously flowing out [35] - MEG: The subsequent supply pressure will increase month - on - month [44] - Cost and profit: The cost has decreased, and the profit has been repaired. The polymerization cost has dropped to around 5400 yuan/ton, and the bottle - chip processing fee is oscillating at a high level [46] 4. Inventory - Polyester factories' overall PTA inventory has increased, and the domestic polyester bottle - chip factory inventory has slightly decreased to around 14.5 days. It is expected to have a slight inventory accumulation in September [50][55] 5. Device Changes - In September, about 400,000 tons of the planned 1,000,000 - ton device will resume production. Some factories are maintaining production cuts, and new devices such as Fuhai are expected to be postponed [56] 6. Demand - Beverage consumption from January to August 2025 is weaker year - on - year. However, there are still many new beverage factory production lines to be put into operation. The demand for edible oil is neutral, and the demand for sheet materials is driven by the expansion of ready - to - drink beverages in the sinking market and the take - away war [63][67][72] 7. Export - In July 2025, the export volume of polyester bottle chips and slices increased year - on - year. The main export destinations are Southeast Asia, South Asia, Central Asia, Russia, and Eastern Europe. There are anti - dumping policies and investigations in some countries [82][84][93] 8. Supply - demand Balance Sheet - In September 2025, it is in a tight balance to a slightly inventory - accumulating state, and the pressure will increase in the future. The supply assumption is that mainstream factories maintain production cuts, and new devices will be put into operation. The demand assumption is that downstream demand will increase by 5% year - on - year during the peak season, and the export volume will maintain at around 600,000 tons [94][96]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The expectation of interest rate cuts has been realized, and steel inventories continue to accumulate. The glass and soda ash markets show factory inventory destocking and significant downward movement in the futures market. The double - silicon market features firm spot prices and strong alloy performance [1][3]. Group 3: Market Analysis and Strategy for Glass and Soda Ash Glass - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, glass futures fluctuated downward. Downstream procurement was cautious, mainly for immediate needs. With the recent price increase, glass production and sales improved month - on - month. This week, the operating rate of float glass enterprises was 76.01%, unchanged from the previous period, and factory inventory was 60.908 million heavy boxes, a 1.1% month - on - month decrease. There is still a supply - demand contradiction in the glass market, and the short - term premium in the futures market suppresses price increases [1]. - **Strategy**: The price trend is expected to be oscillating and weakening [2]. Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, soda ash futures also fluctuated downward. Downstream demand was mainly for rigid restocking. This week, the operating rate was 85.53%, a 2.02% month - on - month decrease, production was 745,700 tons, a 2.02% month - on - month decrease, and inventory was 1.7556 million tons, a 2.33% month - on - month decrease. The supply - demand imbalance will continue with new production capacity coming online in the fourth quarter, and the current premium in the futures market further suppresses price increases [1]. - **Strategy**: The price trend is expected to be oscillating and weakening [2]. Group 4: Market Analysis and Strategy for Double - Silicon (Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon) Manganese Silicon - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, manganese silicon showed an oscillating and strengthening trend. The manganese ore market maintained a price - supporting sentiment. The final price of the mainstream steel tender was 6,000 yuan/ton, with the price in the northern market at 5,680 - 5,730 yuan/ton and in the southern market at 5,700 - 5,750 yuan/ton. Production and sales slightly increased, but enterprise inventory rose due to continuous production growth. In the long term, the supply - demand pattern tends to be loose [3]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate [4]. Ferrosilicon - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, ferrosilicon futures continued to oscillate and strengthen. The market sentiment was average, with the price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production areas at 5,300 - 5,400 yuan/ton and 75 - grade ferrosilicon at 6,000 - 6,050 yuan/ton. Production and sales were differentiated, and factory inventory reached a high level, suppressing prices. The industry has an obvious supply surplus, and profits are constrained without industrial policies [3]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, the supply has recently returned, and with some major suppliers selling goods, the spot market liquidity is fair. The market supply - demand outlook is weak, and the spot basis is gradually declining. PTA spot prices mainly fluctuate following the cost side. Attention should be paid to polyester upstream - downstream device changes and terminal demand [5]. - For MEG, the port inventory increased slightly this week, but it's unlikely to be persistent this month. Due to pre - holiday stocking, polyester factories still have demand for low - price restocking. In the short term, MEG supply - demand remains tight, and the basis has some support during the delivery period. However, with the progress of new device commissioning, the supply - demand will turn loose in the far - month, and the futures price is under pressure. Attention should be paid to device changes [7]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1.前日回顾 - No relevant content provided 3.2.每日提示 - **PTA Daily View** - **Fundamentals**: PTA futures fluctuated briefly following the cost side yesterday and finally closed slightly lower. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis changed little. September goods were traded at a discount of 75 - 80 to the 01 contract, with the price negotiation range around 4585 - 4670. October goods were traded at a discount of 55 - 60 to the 01 contract. Today's mainstream spot basis is 01 - 77 [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4626, and the 01 contract basis is - 40, with the futures price higher than the spot price [5]. - **Inventory**: PTA factory inventory is 3.8 days, a decrease of 0.04 days compared to the previous period [5]. - **Futures Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [5]. - **Main Position**: The net short position increased [5]. - **Expectation**: As mentioned above, pay attention to polyester device changes and terminal demand [5]. - **MEG Daily View** - **Fundamentals**: On Thursday, the ethylene glycol price fluctuated weakly. In the morning, the MEG futures fluctuated narrowly, with traders mainly conducting swap transactions. Near noon, the futures price declined weakly, and the spot basis strengthened moderately. In the afternoon, affected by a cracking anomaly in a South China device, the market sentiment was boosted. In the US dollar market, the center of the ethylene glycol outer - market price adjusted widely. In the morning, recent shipments were negotiated around 516 - 519 US dollars/ton, and in the afternoon, the negotiation center回调 to 514 - 515 US dollars/ton. The difference between the inner and outer markets was large, and the buying follow - up was weak [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4362, and the 01 contract basis is 94, with the spot price higher than the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in the East China region is 38.17 tons, an increase of 0.93 tons compared to the previous period [8]. - **Futures Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [8]. - **Main Position**: The net short position decreased [7]. - **Expectation**: As mentioned above, pay attention to port shipment conditions and device changes [7]. 3.3.今日关注 - **Influencing Factors Summary** - **Positive Factors**: The average operating load of polyester devices has further increased to 91.3%, a 1 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. With the approaching of the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, the market's expectation of demand start is slightly reflected. Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton device is under maintenance and is expected to restart in November [11]. - **Negative Factors**: The profit margins of each link in the industrial chain continue to be under pressure, and the overall operating atmosphere remains cautious [10]. - **Current Main Logic and Risk Points** - Short - term commodity markets are greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and for the futures price rebound, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [10]. 3.4.基本面数据 - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the PTA supply - demand situation from January 2024 to December 2025, including capacity, output, import, export, consumption, inventory, etc. For example, in September 2025, the PTA capacity is 9172, the output is 626, the total supply is 626, the total demand is 624, and the inventory at the end of the period is 337 [12]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the ethylene glycol supply - demand situation from January 2024 to December 2025, including production, import, supply, consumption, port inventory, etc. For example, in September 2025, the EG output is 58, the total supply is 234, the total demand is 233, and the supply - demand difference is 2 [13]. - **Price Data**: It includes the prices of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, polyester filaments, and their changes from September 17 to September 18, 2025. For example, the spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) increased from 575.5 to 584.5 US dollars/ton, and the CCFEI price index of PTA (domestic) decreased from 4630 to 4590 yuan/ton [14]. - **Inventory Data**: It shows the inventory situation of PTA, MEG, PET chips, polyester filaments, etc. from 2021 to 2025, including factory - inventory available days and port inventory [43][45]. - **Operating Rate Data**: It shows the operating rate situation of PTA, PX, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and downstream weaving machines from 2020 to 2025 [54][56][58][60]. - **Profit Data**: It shows the profit situation of PTA, MEG, polyester fibers, etc. from 2022 to 2025, including processing fees and production gross margins [62][64][66][68][69].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol shows a weak balance, with insufficient momentum for price rebound. It may maintain a low - level oscillation in the short term, and if port destocking continues to fall short of expectations, the price may decline to the previous low. If inventory destocking starts, it is expected to drive a periodic price rebound [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Prices and Basis**: The price of the main ethylene glycol futures contract rebounded for two consecutive days, reaching 4,297 yuan/ton on September 17, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot price in the East China market rose to 4,380 yuan/ton, and the basis narrowed by 25 yuan to 83 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread widened to - 61 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread turned to a premium of 20 yuan [2] - **Positions and Trading Volume**: The position of the main contract decreased slightly by 107 lots to 310,700 lots, and trading volume decreased by 17% to 124,900 lots, indicating a cautious market sentiment [2] - **Supply Side**: The total ethylene glycol operating rate remained at 70.8%, with the operating rates of oil - based, coal - based, and methanol - based plants stable. Coal - based production continued to incur a loss of 402 yuan/ton [2] - **Demand Side**: The load of polyester plants was 89.42%, and that of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 63.43%, remaining flat for many days. Terminal restocking demand was dull [2] - **Inventory Side**: The inventory at the main ports in East China increased by 5.9 tons to 485,700 tons (a weekly increase of 13.7%), and the inventory in Zhangjiagang soared by 52,000 tons to 180,000 tons, reaching a recent high [3] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On September 17, 2025, the main ethylene glycol futures contract price was 4,297 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous day; the spot price in the East China market was 4,380 yuan/ton, and the basis was 83 yuan/ton [5] - **Spreads**: The 1 - 5 spread was - 61 yuan, the 5 - 9 spread was 20 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 41 yuan [5] - **Profits**: Coal - based production profit was - 402 yuan/ton, with no change [5] - **Operating Rates**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate was 70.8%, and the operating rates of various production methods remained unchanged [5] - **Inventory and Arrivals**: The inventory at the main ports in East China was 486,000 tons, and the inventory in Zhangjiagang was 180,000 tons. The arrival volume was 101,700 tons, down 67,000 tons from the previous period [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - On September 17, the spot price of ethylene glycol in Shaanxi remained stable at around 3,980 yuan/ton ex - works. The mainstream market was weak, but coal prices were firm [6] - On September 17, the mainstream market price was weak, while the price quoted by holders in the South China market remained stable, with a dull trading atmosphere at around 4,480 yuan/ton delivered [6] - On September 17, the crude oil market declined during the day, with unstable cost support. The supply - demand fundamentals of ethylene glycol were expected to weaken, and the market negotiation price declined, with the current East China price at around 4,360 yuan/ton [6] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on the closing price and basis of the main ethylene glycol contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, ethylene glycol inventory at the main ports in East China (weekly), and total industry inventory [7][9][11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the recent supply has returned, and with some major suppliers selling goods, the spot market liquidity is fair. The supply - demand outlook is weak, and the spot basis is gradually declining. PTA spot prices mainly fluctuate following the cost side. Attention should be paid to the changes in polyester upstream and downstream equipment and terminal demand [5]. - For MEG, the price center has fluctuated and declined at a high level. The near - term supply - demand remains tight, and the basis during the delivery period still has some support. However, with the advancement of new device production, the supply - demand in the far - month will turn loose, and the disk performance will be under pressure. Future device changes should be monitored [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.前日回顾 - Not provided in the content 2.每日提示 PTA - **Fundamentals**: The PTA futures fluctuated and consolidated yesterday. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis was weak. The September goods were negotiated at a discount of 75 - 85 to the 01 contract, with the price negotiation range around 4590 - 4635. The mid - October goods were traded at 01 - 60. Today's mainstream spot basis is 01 - 80 [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4612, and the 01 contract basis is - 76, with the futures price higher than the spot price, showing a bearish signal [5]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory is 3.84 days, a decrease of 0.06 days compared to the previous period, indicating a bullish signal [5]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish signal [5]. - **Main positions**: The net short position is decreasing, still showing a bearish signal [5]. MEG - **Fundamentals**: On Tuesday, the ethylene glycol price center fluctuated and declined at a high level. The night - session ethylene glycol fluctuated upward, but the buying interest was limited. During the day, the ethylene glycol disk opened flat and then declined. The overall intention of traders to hold goods was weak, and the afternoon spot basis weakened to a premium of about 80 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. In US dollars, the external market price of ethylene glycol corrected downward at a high level [6]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4382, and the 01 contract basis is 110, with the spot price higher than the futures price, showing a bullish signal [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in the East China region is 37.24 tons, a decrease of 0.73 tons compared to the previous period, indicating a bullish signal [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish signal [7]. - **Main positions**: The net short position is increasing, showing a bearish signal [6]. 3.今日关注 - **Likely positive factors**: The average operating load of polyester devices has further increased to 91.3%, a 1 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. With the approaching of the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, the market's expectation of demand start is slightly reflected. Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton device is under maintenance and is expected to restart in November [10]. - **Likely negative factors**: The profit margins of all links in the industrial chain continue to be under pressure, and the overall operating atmosphere remains cautious [9]. - **Main logic and risk points**: In the short term, the commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level should be monitored when the disk rebounds [9]. 4.基本面数据 PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, PTA production capacity has gradually increased. The supply - demand gap has fluctuated, with some months showing a supply surplus and others a supply shortage [11]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the total production and supply of ethylene glycol have changed, and the supply - demand gap has also fluctuated. The port inventory has also shown corresponding changes [12]. Other Data Analysis - **Price**: Multiple price - related charts of PTA, MEG, and PET bottle - chip are provided, including spot prices, production margins, basis, and inter - month spreads, showing the price trends from 2020 to 2025 [14][17][21][24][28][31][35][38]. - **Inventory**: Inventory - related charts of PTA, MEG, PET bottle - chip, and polyester products are presented, including factory inventory and port inventory, showing the inventory trends from 2021 to 2025 [40][42][45][46][49]. - **Operating Rate**: Operating - rate - related charts of polyester upstream and downstream industries are provided, including the operating rates of PTA, paraxylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms, showing the operating rate trends from 2020 to 2025 [51][55]. - **Profit**: Profit - related charts of PTA, MEG, and polyester products are provided, including production margins of different production methods, showing the profit trends from 2022 to 2025 [60][61][64].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][4][6] Core Views Steel Industry - Steel prices are influenced by weak demand and expected contraction in coal supply. In the short - term, prices are expected to rise due to the impact of coking coal and pre - National Day restocking. Consider short - term long positions, with resistance levels at 3350 yuan for rebar and 3500 yuan for hot - rolled coils [1] Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore market is in a tight - balanced state. Unilateral trading should be viewed with a bullish bias, with a reference range of 780 - 850. It is recommended to go long on the iron ore 2601 contract and short on hot - rolled coils in arbitrage [4] Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, it is recommended to go long on the coke 2601 contract at a reference range of 1650 - 1800 and conduct an arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke. For coking coal, it is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2601 contract at a reference range of 1070 - 1300 and also conduct an arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke [6] Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts showed varying degrees of increase. For example, rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China increased by 30 yuan, 20 yuan, and 40 yuan respectively [1] Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices increased by 20 yuan, and the cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar increased by 23 yuan. The profits of hot - rolled coils in East China, North China, and South China decreased by 9 yuan, 9 yuan, and 19 yuan respectively [1] Mills - The daily average pig iron output increased by 11.6 to 240.6, a rise of 5.1%. The output of five major steel products decreased by 3.4 to 857.2, a decline of 0.4% [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 13.9 to 1514.6, a rise of 0.9%. The rebar inventory increased by 13.9 to 653.9, a rise of 2.2% [1] Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 0.1 to 11.8, a rise of 1.0%. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 15.5 to 843.3, a rise of 1.9% [1] Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of various iron ore types in Rizhao Port increased slightly. For example, the price of Carajás fines increased by 10 yuan to 916 yuan/ton. The basis of the 01 contract for various iron ore types decreased significantly [4] Supply - The global iron ore shipment volume increased by 816.9 to 3573.1, a rise of 29.6%, while the 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 85.7 to 2362.3, a decline of 3.5% [4] Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 11.7 to 240.6, a rise of 5.1%. The daily average port clearance volume of 45 ports increased by 13.5 to 337.3, a rise of 4.2% [4] Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 45.1 to 13804.41, a decline of 0.3%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 53.2 to 8993.1, a rise of 0.6% [4] Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - Coke futures contracts 01 and 05 increased by 2.8% and 2.5% respectively. The coking profit (weekly) decreased by 11 [6] Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - Coking coal futures contracts 01 and 05 increased by 4.5% and 3.5% respectively. The sample coal mine profit (weekly) decreased by 12, a decline of 2.9% [6] Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 2.4 to 66.8, a rise of 3.8%. The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines increased by 43.8 to 861.1, a rise of 5.4% [6] Demand - The iron water output of 247 steel mills increased by 11.8 to 240.6, a rise of 5.1%. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 2.4 to 66.8, a rise of 3.8% [6] Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory increased by 11.0 to 906.2, a rise of 1.2%. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.0 to 793.7, a decline of 0.3% [6] Supply - Demand Gap Changes - The calculated coke supply - demand gap decreased by 2.4 to - 3.1, a decline of 75.4% [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: The trend is bearish in the medium term, with a short - term potential for supply fluctuations due to geopolitical factors, but the upside space is limited. The strategy of combining high - level short positions and call options can be continued [2]. - Fuel oil & Low - sulfur fuel oil: FU and LU are expected to follow the crude oil trend, with short - term rebound risks and medium - term downward pressure. It is recommended to focus on the strategy of buying the spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil when the spread is low [3]. - Asphalt: The overall inventory level has decreased, and the futures price has bottom - support [4]. - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): The overseas market is strong, and the short - term price - to - oil ratio is expected to be strong. Pay attention to the peak - season stocking market, and the near - month contract on the futures market is relatively strong [5]. Core Viewpoints - With the end of the gasoline consumption peak season, global refined oil inventory accumulation has accelerated. Considering the return of OPEC+ supply and the end of the summer peak season for oil demand, the market is expected to face greater loosening pressure in the fourth quarter, with the most oversupplied period in the first quarter of next year. The oversupply may reach 1.64 million barrels per day this year and 2.67 million barrels per day next year [2]. - Since Russian refineries have been frequently attacked, the weekly loading volume of Russian fuel oil has continued to decline. The increase in bunker fuel consumption in the Singapore market is concentrated in high - sulfur bunker fuel. The low - sulfur supply pressure has eased marginally, and the spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil is difficult to compress further [3]. - The latest data shows that asphalt plant inventory has decreased slightly, and social inventory has decreased by 50,000 tons weekly. The increase and subsequent decrease of warehouse receipts in East China are conducive to alleviating the downward pressure on spot prices in East China [4]. - The overseas LPG market remains strong. Affected by typhoons in South China, imported goods have decreased, and high - level refinery operating rates can be maintained due to good chemical profit margins [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Since the end of the gasoline consumption peak season, global refined oil inventory has increased by 4.7% and crude oil inventory has decreased by 0.9% since the second half of the year, with an overall increase of 1.2% in total oil inventory, continuing the inventory - building speed in the second quarter [2]. - Considering the supply return of OPEC+ and the end of the oil demand peak season, the market's loosening pressure will increase marginally in the fourth quarter, and the most oversupplied period will be in the first quarter of next year, with oversupply of 1.64 million barrels per day this year and 2.67 million barrels per day next year [2]. - The medium - term bearish trend of crude oil prices remains unchanged. Although short - term geopolitical factors may cause temporary supply fluctuations, the upside space for price rebounds is limited [2]. Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - Since Russian refineries have been frequently attacked, the weekly loading volume of Russian fuel oil has continued to decline. The increase in domestic local refinery operating rates is beneficial to fuel oil feedstock demand [3]. - The increase in bunker fuel consumption in the Singapore market is concentrated in high - sulfur bunker fuel, with an 11.6% year - on - year increase in high - sulfur bunker fuel loading volume in August and a 6% year - on - year increase in cumulative loading volume [3]. - FU and LU are expected to follow the crude oil trend, with short - term rebound risks and medium - term downward pressure. The low - sulfur supply pressure has eased marginally, and the spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil is difficult to compress further [3]. Asphalt - The latest data shows that asphalt plant inventory has decreased slightly, and social inventory has decreased by 50,000 tons weekly, with the overall inventory level decreasing month - on - month [4]. - Warehouse receipts in East China increased by 4,000 tons last Friday and decreased by 2,700 tons in the first two trading days of this week, which is conducive to alleviating the downward pressure on spot prices in East China [4]. - The asphalt futures price has bottom - support [4]. LPG - The overseas LPG market remains strong, and the overall sentiment is positive due to strong import demand and rising geopolitical risks [5]. - Affected by typhoons in South China, imported LPG has decreased. Good chemical profit margins allow high - level refinery operating rates to be maintained [5]. - The short - term price - to - oil ratio is expected to be strong. Pay attention to the peak - season stocking market, and the near - month contract on the futures market is relatively strong [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core contradiction affecting the lithium carbonate futures price stems from the tug - of - war between supply - side expected changes and demand - side support during the peak season. The resumption of production at the Jianxiawo lithium mine under CATL will be a key variable. The supply - side dynamics have led to the market pricing in advance the potential downward pressure on prices due to future supply increases, while the demand side provides solid support. The resumption of production at the lithium mine has significant uncertainties, and before September 30, the lithium carbonate futures price is likely to remain stable, and it is expected to fluctuate between 6,8000 - 76,000 yuan/ton until National Day [3][4]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the time - limit pressure on lithium mines in Jiangxi for report submission and the policy support for new energy vehicles and energy storage. Negative factors include the risk of insufficient restocking during the peak season and the expected resumption of production at the Jianxiawo lithium mine [4][5][6]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Data - **Price and Volatility Forecast**: The strong resistance level of the lithium carbonate main contract is 80,000 yuan/ton, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 39.0%, and the historical percentile of volatility in the past 3 years is 65.9% [2]. - **Futures Contract Data**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract is 73,180 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 500 yuan (0.69%) and a weekly increase of 280 yuan (0.38%); the trading volume is 500,267 lots, with a daily increase of 17,477 lots (3.62%) and a weekly decrease of 91,408 lots (-15.45%); the open interest is 300,437 lots, with a daily decrease of 9,009 lots (-2.91%) and a weekly decrease of 50,903 lots (-14.49%) [9][10]. 2. Spot Data - **Lithium Ore Quotes**: The average daily quotes of various lithium ores, such as lithium mica, lithium spodumene, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone, show different price changes. For example, the average price of lithium mica (Li2O:2 - 2.5%) is 1,815 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 40 yuan (2.25%) and a weekly decrease of 50 yuan (-2.68%) [24]. - **Carbon/Hydrogen Lithium Quotes**: The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 70,600 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 400 yuan (0.57%) and a weekly decrease of 1,750 yuan (-2.42%); the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 72,850 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 400 yuan (0.55%) and a weekly decrease of 1,750 yuan (-2.35%) [27]. - **Downstream Product Quotes**: The average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate is 33,470 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 95 yuan (0.28%); the average price of 523 (consumer - type) ternary materials is 114,375 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 200 yuan (0%) [32][33]. 3. Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis Quotes**: The basis quotes of different lithium carbonate brands, such as Shengxin Lithium Energy, Tianqi Lithium, etc., show different price differences. The four - material comprehensive basis quote for LC2507 is - 237.5 yuan/ton [35]. - **Warehouse Receipt Quantity**: The total number of warehouse receipts is 38,824 lots, a decrease of 139 lots from the previous day [38]. 4. Cost and Profit - **Production and Import Profits**: The report mentions the production profit of lithium carbonate from外购 lithium ore (including lithium spodumene and lithium mica) and the import profit of lithium carbonate, but specific numerical details are not fully presented [42]. Lithium - Ion Enterprise Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - **Procurement Management**: - For enterprises with no correlation between product prices, when worried about rising procurement costs, they can buy 60% of corresponding futures contracts at 67,000 - 71,000 yuan/ton (LC2511) and sell 40% of put options (P - 68,000) [2]. - For enterprises with correlated product prices, they can sell 20% of the futures main contract according to the procurement progress and use 20% of put options + call options [2]. - **Sales Management**: Enterprises worried about falling sales prices can sell 60% of corresponding futures contracts and use 20% of put options + call options according to the production plan [2]. - **Inventory Management**: Enterprises with high lithium carbonate inventory can sell 20% of the futures main contract at 76,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton (LC2511) and sell 40% of call options (C - 77,000) [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - PTA: The PTA futures fluctuated within a range yesterday, and the spot market had a fair negotiation atmosphere with a weakening spot basis. The market is expected to see a supply return, and the spot basis is gradually declining. The spot price of PTA will mainly fluctuate following the cost side. Attention should be paid to the changes in polyester upstream and downstream devices and terminal demand [5]. - MEG: On Monday, the price center of ethylene glycol adjusted at a low level, and the market trading was average. In the short - term, the supply and demand of ethylene glycol are still tight, and the basis has certain support during the delivery period. However, with the advancement of new device production, the supply and demand in the far - month will turn loose, and the disk performance will be under pressure. Attention should be paid to device changes [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1前日回顾 No relevant content provided. 3.2每日提示 - **PTA** - Fundamental: Futures fluctuated, spot negotiation okay, basis weakened, 9 - month goods traded at 01 discount of 80, etc. [5] - Basis: Spot price 4610, 01 contract basis - 62, disk premium, bearish [6] - Inventory: PTA factory inventory 3.84 days, decreased by 0.06 days, bullish [6] - Disk: 20 - day moving average down, closing price below 20 - day moving average, bearish [6] - Main position: Net short, short position decreased, bearish [5] - Expectation: Supply return, basis decline, price follows cost, watch device and demand [5] - **MEG** - Fundamental: Price center adjusted low, trading average, disk fluctuated slightly up at noon [7] - Basis: Spot price 4377, 01 contract basis 89, disk discount, bullish [7] - Inventory: East China inventory 37.24 tons, decreased by 0.73 tons, bullish [7] - Disk: 20 - day moving average down, closing price below 20 - day moving average, bearish [7] - Main position: Net short, short position decreased, bearish [7] - Expectation: Port inventory may rise slightly this week, short - term tight supply - demand, far - month loose, watch device [7] 3.3今日关注 No relevant content provided. 3.4基本面数据 - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the data of PTA capacity, load, output, import, supply, polyester production, consumption, export, demand, inventory, etc. from January 2024 to December 2025 [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the data of EG production, import, supply, polyester production, consumption, port inventory, etc. from January 2024 to December 2025 [12]. - **Price - related Charts**: Include bottle - chip spot price, production margin, capacity utilization, inventory, PTA and MEG basis, month - to - month spread, spot spread, etc. from 2020 - 2025 [14][28][31] - **Inventory Analysis Charts**: Show the inventory days of PTA, MEG, PET chips, and polyester fibers in different regions and time periods from 2020 - 2025 [40] - **Upstream and Downstream开工率Charts**: Display the opening rates of PTA, paraxylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms from 2020 - 2025 [51][55] - **Profit - related Charts**: Illustrate the production margins of PTA, MEG, polyester fibers (short - fiber, DTY, POY, FDY) from 2022 - 2025 [60][61] 3.5利多因素 - The average operating load of polyester devices has further increased to 91.3%, a 1 - percentage - point increase from the previous week [10]. - With the approach of the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, the market's expectation of demand start is slightly reflected [10]. - Yisheng Hainan's 2 - million - ton plant is under maintenance and is expected to restart in November [10]. 3.6利空因素 - The profit margins of all links in the industrial chain continue to be under pressure, and the overall operating atmosphere remains cautious [9].