Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Platinum: Amidst the geopolitical issues that continue to disrupt the market, platinum prices are expected to oscillate. In the short - term, due to the interplay of multiple factors, the price lacks a clear driving force. In the long - term, the weakening of the US dollar index is beneficial for the release of platinum price elasticity, with an outlook of a moderately upward trend [2]. - Palladium: The supply of palladium remains uncertain, and the demand faces structural pressure. In the long - term, the supply - demand situation tends to ease, but in the short - term, supply disruptions still exist. Currently, it mainly follows the overall fluctuations of the precious metals sector, with an outlook of a moderately upward trend [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - On March 10, 2026, the platinum main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange rose 4.26% to 562.55 yuan/gram, and the palladium main contract rose 4.02% to 423.55 yuan/gram [1]. Platinum Analysis - **Main Logic**: In the short - term, the US - Iran conflict provides support for precious metal prices, but high oil prices and delayed Fed rate - cut expectations suppress platinum prices. The US February non - farm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 92,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. In the long - term, the weakening of the US dollar index is favorable for platinum prices, but the US - Iran conflict also has an impact [2]. - **Outlook**: Moderately upward. The fundamental resilience and the weakening of the US dollar credit support this view [2]. Palladium Analysis - **Main Logic**: The supply of palladium remains uncertain. The US imposed anti - dumping duties on Russian palladium, and Europe is considering new sanctions. The demand side faces structural pressure. Overall, the long - term supply - demand is loosening, and short - term supply disruptions exist, mainly following the overall precious metals market [3]. - **Outlook**: Moderately upward. The shortage of physical palladium and the weakening of the US dollar credit support this view [3]. Index Information - **Special Index**: The commodity index was 2572.74, down 0.45%; the commodity 20 index was 2930.42, down 0.23%; the industrial products index was 2509.90, down 0.69% [50]. - **Sector Index**: On March 10, 2026, the non - ferrous metals index had a daily increase of 0.25%, a 5 - day increase of 0.31%, a 1 - month decrease of 0.05%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.82% [52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of double粕 (soybean meal and rapeseed meal) and oils followed the decline of crude oil, and the development of the Middle - East situation remains the dominant factor. The prices of these products are expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the development of the Middle - East situation [1][5][6]. - Corn experienced a high - level correction due to macro - emotional disturbances. In the short term, it is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, and in the medium - term, it is generally bullish [6][7]. - The supply of live pigs remains loose, and the price is weak. In the short - term, it is expected to be volatile and weak, and in the long - term, the price may bottom out and pick up in the second half of 2026 [8]. - Natural rubber rebounded slightly after the expected easing of the Middle - East situation. The market is expected to be volatile [9][11]. - Synthetic rubber's fluctuations follow the oil price and showed a correction. If the crude oil price continues to rise, the market will be short - term strong, but attention should be paid to the rapid change of geopolitical sentiment [12]. - Cotton continued to fluctuate slightly, waiting for new news. In the medium - and long - term, it is recommended to allocate more [12]. - Sugar prices fluctuated due to the sharp short - term fluctuations of oil prices. The market is expected to be volatile [13][14]. - Pulp futures continued to decline, and the relative weakness remained unchanged. It is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [15]. - Double - gum paper fluctuated as commodities corrected. The market is expected to show a trend of rising first and then falling from March to May [16][17]. - Logs' prices were under pressure as the geopolitical situation cooled. The market is expected to be volatile [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils - **View**: Oils followed the crude oil to adjust and consolidate. - **Logic**: Due to the US President's remarks on the Middle - East geopolitical issue, the market expects the war situation to ease, and the crude oil price dropped rapidly, affecting the vegetable oil price. The fundamentals of the vegetable oil market are related to the Middle - East situation. The production and export of Malaysian palm oil in February 2026 were lower than expected, and the inventory was higher than expected. The market should continue to pay attention to the USDA report, the implementation of the US biodiesel policy, and Indonesia's biodiesel policy adjustment. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to be volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the phased low - level buying strategy [5]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **View**: Double粕 followed the crude oil to decline, and the development of the Middle - East situation remains the dominant factor. - **Logic**: Internationally, the market's concern about the risk of the Strait of Hormuz interruption has decreased, and the crude oil price has fallen. The adjustment of the USDA's March supply - demand report is expected to be limited. The progress of China's policy - based procurement before Trump's visit to China at the end of the month and the announcement of the US biodiesel details this month may limit the decline of US soybeans. Domestically, affected by the weakening of the external crude oil price and US soybean futures price, the import cost has decreased, and the market sentiment has cooled. The follow - up trend still needs to pay attention to the evolution of the Middle - East situation and whether the imported soybeans will be resold. - **Outlook**: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to be volatile [1][5][6]. 3.1.3 Corn - **View**: Affected by macro - emotional disturbances, corn experienced a high - level correction. - **Logic**: Most commodities declined today. Affected by macro - funds and emotions, corn also corrected. In terms of fundamentals, the upstream grain sales progress is 68%. In March, with the warming of the temperature, the wet grain supply increased, but the supply pressure is limited. The downstream deep - processing and feed enterprises have a demand for replenishing inventory. The supply increase is slower than the demand for replenishment, and the industry is in a tight and high - turnover state. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. In March, the wet grain is expected to increase gradually, and the spot price increase is expected to narrow. In the medium - term, based on the tight annual balance sheet, corn is generally bullish [6][7]. 3.1.4 Live Pigs - **View**: The supply remains loose, and the price is weak. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the breeding end did not complete the slaughter plan in February, and the daily planned slaughter volume in March increased. In the medium - term, the supply pressure is still large. In the long - term, the process of reducing production capacity is not smooth. The demand is in the off - season after the festival, the pig - meat price ratio and the fat - lean price difference have declined, and the average weight of pigs and the utilization rate of secondary fattening pens have increased. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be volatile and weak. In the first half of the year, the industry is recommended to pay attention to the hedging opportunity of short - selling at high prices. It is expected that the pig cycle will bottom out and pick up in the second half of 2026 [8]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: After the expected easing of the Middle - East situation, natural rubber rebounded slightly. - **Logic**: The short - term trading logic is still related to the Middle - East geopolitics. Although it has little impact on the supply of this variety, the tire orders to the Middle - East are affected, which is negative for the price. The market sentiment is weak, and it is difficult to rise further in the short - term. The fundamentals are difficult to show positive factors. However, due to the warm market expectation, the decline range is limited. The inventory pressure is large, but it is about to enter the low - production period, and the downstream demand remains, so the price is easy to rise and difficult to fall. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals change little, and the market is expected to be volatile [9][11]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The fluctuations follow the oil price, and it showed a correction yesterday. - **Logic**: Affected by the decline of crude oil, the price of BR (butadiene rubber) declined. The short - term trading logic has switched to geopolitics. As long as the crude oil remains strong, even if the fundamentals of BR are weak, the downstream has shown signs of negative feedback after the sharp rise of butadiene, and the BR has a premium over NR again, the price is easy to rise and difficult to fall. The price of butadiene rose sharply last week due to geopolitical factors, and the supply - side support of the butadiene market has strengthened. - **Outlook**: The market follows the sector sentiment. If the crude oil price continues to rise, the market will be short - term strong, but attention should be paid to the rapid change of geopolitical sentiment [12]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **View**: It continued to fluctuate slightly, waiting for new news. - **Logic**: The market entered a consolidation period last week. On the one hand, the bullish factors in the cotton market were fully traded in the first week after the Spring Festival, and there is no new driving force. On the other hand, affected by the conflict between the US and Iran, funds flowed into hot varieties, and the cotton price lacked the driving force to rise. The domestic cotton commercial inventory is in the de - stocking period, and the fundamentals are good, which supports the cotton price. The overseas supply and demand are loose this year, and it is expected to improve next year. The external market has room for upward movement in the long - term. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. It is recommended to allocate more in the medium - and long - term [12]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **View**: The sharp short - term fluctuations of oil prices drove the sugar price to fluctuate. - **Logic**: In the long - term, the internal and external sugar prices are expected to continue to fluctuate weakly at the bottom. In the short - term, affected by the large fluctuations of oil prices, the market may fluctuate, but it is difficult to reverse the oversupply pattern. The global sugar market is expected to have an oversupply in the 25/26 crushing season, and the main producing countries are expected to increase production. If the oil price continues to rise significantly, it may lead to a decrease in the sugar - making ratio in Brazil's new crushing season, which will tighten the sugar supply and push up the sugar price. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be volatile. The price range of the domestic market can be moderately widened to 5100 - 5500 yuan/ton [13][14]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **View**: The futures continued to decline, and the relative weakness remained unchanged. - **Logic**: The pulp futures showed a trend of rising first and then falling, and the fluctuations were mainly affected by the transmission of crude oil fluctuations. From the perspective of fundamentals, the current situation is weak, but the seasonal expectation is getting stronger. The demand in the industrial chain is not strong, and the trading volume is average during the price increase. In the future, the demand is expected to improve seasonally. The supply of broad - leaf pulp has a positive impact on the overall pulp price, but the high overseas inventory of coniferous pulp and the flat import price have a negative impact on the pulp futures. Overall, the new changes in supply and demand tend to strengthen the positive impact of demand, but the long - term pressure is still large. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. The expectation of marginal improvement in demand forms a positive factor, and the pulp market will maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend within the range [15]. 3.1.10 Double - Gum Paper - **View**: As commodities corrected, double - gum paper fluctuated. - **Logic**: On March 10, 2026, the market price of double - gum paper in Shandong was stable. Yesterday, the commodity sentiment corrected, and the pulp and double - gum paper followed the weak trend, with no clear short - term driving force. The supply pressure of double - gum paper still exists, the downstream demand is weak, and the industry is waiting and seeing. The downstream paper enterprises have a strong intention to raise prices after the festival, and the spot price in Shandong has increased slightly. The paper enterprises' quotations at the beginning of the month have been partially raised, but the actual transactions are mostly stable. From March to April, the supply and demand of the double - gum paper market are expected to increase. In May, the price may decline due to the negotiation behavior of publishers and the lack of social orders. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be volatile. After the festival, the supply and demand are expected to increase. The paper mills' quotations have been raised at the beginning of the month, and the short - term market will fluctuate within the range [16][17]. 3.1.11 Logs - **View**: As the geopolitical situation cooled, the market was under pressure. - **Logic**: On March 10, 2026, the price of logs in Shandong and Jiangsu was stable. Recently, the log market was affected by geopolitics, and the cost increase drove the spot and market prices to rise. But the fundamentals changed little. After the geopolitical conflict eased, the market showed a correction trend. The overseas quotation is expected to remain strong. The key points are the pressure on the domestic spot price after a large number of radiata pine arrives in March and April, and the geopolitical risks such as freight and US dollar exchange rate changes. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be volatile. The increase in overseas quotations drives up the domestic spot price, and the support below is strong. But due to the repeated geopolitical disturbances, the log market will maintain a range - bound operation [19]. 3.2 Commodity Index - On March 10, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities was 2572.74, a decrease of 0.45%; the commodity 20 index was 2930.42, a decrease of 0.23%; the industrial products index was 2509.90, a decrease of 0.69%. The agricultural products index was 968.25, with a daily decline of 1.33%, a 5 - day increase of 2.03%, a 1 - month increase of 3.36%, and a year - to - date increase of 3.77% [182][184].

Group 1: Core Insights - The equity market is experiencing significant volatility due to external geopolitical tensions, particularly the escalating conflict in the Middle East, which has led to a sharp decline in global risk appetite and market downturns [2][3][9] - Despite the initial panic, the equity market shows resilience, with indices rebounding after sharp declines, indicating a rational market response to geopolitical developments [2][3][11] - The government work report emphasizes a stable and pragmatic approach for 2026, with a focus on consistent monetary policy, which is expected to provide reassurance to the market [2][4][11] Group 2: Equity Market Analysis - The report suggests maintaining confidence in the market despite current turbulence, as the likelihood of prolonged large-scale conflict is low, and the impact of geopolitical tensions is expected to diminish over time [3][11] - There are structural opportunities in the innovation and technology sectors, particularly in computing and communications, which are expected to benefit from government support and upcoming earnings reports [5][12] - Dividend-paying sectors may also present investment opportunities as risk-averse capital may flow into these areas amid geopolitical uncertainties [12] Group 3: Bond Market Insights - The bond market is becoming more attractive as global risk appetite declines, with funds flowing from equities to bonds, supported by a loose monetary policy that enhances liquidity [5][34] - Short-term bonds are recommended as a more flexible investment choice in the current environment, given the increased appeal of the bond market [34] Group 4: Commodity Market Overview - The commodity market has shown upward trends driven by rising oil prices due to geopolitical tensions, but there are concerns about potential price corrections if tensions ease [6][41] - The long-term outlook for commodities remains positive, driven by inflationary pressures and a global shift towards lower interest rates [41]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term geopolitical factors face significant uncertainties, and most commodities are expected to oscillate in the short term. The mid - to long - term strategy for some commodities can consider building long positions by leveraging the discount advantage of stock index futures [1]. - The energy price increase raises inflation risks and suppresses interest - rate cut expectations, but the unexpected February non - farm payrolls in the US increase the risk of economic stagflation, which also supports the prices of precious metals and platinum - palladium [1]. - The ongoing geopolitical conflicts have a wide - ranging impact on the commodity market, affecting supply, demand, and cost factors of various commodities [1]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Metals - **Precious Metals**: Affected by factors such as inflation risk, economic stagflation risk, and geopolitical games, precious metals are expected to oscillate in the short term, and platinum - palladium prices may fluctuate within a range [1]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Due to the deterioration of the Middle East situation and the continuous accumulation of domestic and foreign copper inventories, copper prices are running weakly [1]. - **Aluminum**: The supply disturbances in the Middle East and the increase in energy costs are expected to drive aluminum prices to be strong. Attention should be paid to the supply disturbances in the Middle East [1]. - **Alumina**: The operating capacity has slightly declined, but the inventory has further accumulated, with a weak fundamental situation, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [1]. - **Zinc**: The concerns about zinc ore supply support zinc prices, but the short - term fundamental contradictions are limited, and zinc prices are expected to oscillate [1]. - **Nickel**: The supply of Indonesian nickel ore is tightening, and nickel prices may oscillate at a high level, affected by the resonance of the non - ferrous sector. It is recommended to go long on dips [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The raw material prices have risen after the festival, and the steel mills' production schedule in March has increased significantly. The social inventory has slightly decreased. The stainless steel futures are expected to oscillate widely, and low - buying opportunities can be focused on [1]. - **Tin**: Tin prices are highly volatile and oscillating. Investors are advised to focus on risk management and profit protection [1]. - **Ferrous Metals** - **Steel Products** - **Rebar**: The inventory is at a relatively high historical level, and the price is expected to oscillate. After taking profits on the long - basis positions, wait for the next entry opportunity [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The price has significant upward pressure, but due to geopolitical conflicts, it is difficult for iron ore to have a unilateral downward trend. The short - term supply and demand are weak, but geopolitical conflicts, policy benefits, and cost support are positive factors [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The short - term supply and demand are weak, but geopolitical conflicts, policy benefits, and cost support are positive for the price [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: The short - term supply and demand are weak, but the expected reduction in supply and geopolitical conflicts provide cost support [1]. - **Glass**: The cost is supported by the increase in energy prices due to geopolitical conflicts, and the supply and demand are weak in the short term [1]. - **Soda Ash**: It mainly follows the trend of glass. In the short term, it is affected by geopolitical conflicts, and the supply and demand will be more relaxed in the medium term, with price pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The first round of spot price cuts has begun, but the market has already priced in 2 - 3 rounds of cuts. The market is waiting to see, and industrial players can establish cash - and - carry positions in the 05 contract on rebounds [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical factors drive up the price, which in turn affects the prices of related energy and chemical products [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: Affected by geopolitical factors such as the Middle East conflict, the market sentiment is positive, and the risk appetite of funds has recovered [1]. - **Asphalt**: The impact of Iranian imports on the domestic market is relatively small, but the price is affected by the cost transmission of crude oil [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: After the festival, the downstream demand is gradually recovering, the basis difference has expanded to a high level in the same period, and the raw material cost has strong support [1]. - **BR Rubber**: Due to the impact of the shutdown of upstream production, the inventory may turn into a deficit. The cost of butadiene has strong support, and the profit of private cis - butadiene rubber plants is in a loss state, with an increasing expectation of maintenance and production reduction [1]. - **PTA**: Geopolitical factors lead to a strong expectation of crude oil prices. Northeast Asian refineries are facing a shortage of crude oil supply, and the supply of PX is tight, which affects the downstream polyester industry [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Due to the reduction of raw materials caused by geopolitical factors, domestic ethylene glycol plants have seen a sharp increase in prices [1]. - **Styrene**: The overseas pure benzene and styrene markets are strongly rising due to multiple disturbances on the supply side, and the spot supply of styrene is extremely tight [1]. - **Methanol**: The import from Iran is affected by geopolitical conflicts, but the domestic production is at a high level, and the inventory is at a historical high [1]. - **PE and PP**: Geopolitical factors drive up the price of crude oil, but the fundamentals are weak [1]. - **PVC**: In 2026, the global production capacity is expected to be reduced, and the geopolitical conflict has an impact on the raw material supply, with a relatively optimistic future expectation [1]. - **LPG**: The price is affected by factors such as the Middle East geopolitical conflict, the CP price, and the domestic and overseas demand. The basis difference is expected to repair and expand, and the demand side is short - term bearish [1]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Internationally, the global cotton inventory is expected to tighten in the 2026/27 season. Domestically, the inventory is high, but the price is expected to rise gradually with the recovery of demand and the expectation of reduced planting [1]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar market is in a state of structural surplus in the 2025/26 season, and the domestic sugar supply is also relatively abundant. The price of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to have limited fluctuations, with a pattern of strong domestic and weak international prices [1]. - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: The Middle East conflict supports the prices of soybean and soybean meal. The short - term focus should be on international situation dynamics, and unilateral operations should be cautious [1]. - **Pulp**: The fundamental situation of pulp futures is weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to the pressure level of 5350 - 5450 [1]. - **Logs**: The spot price of logs has risen, and the arrival volume in February has decreased. The external quotation is expected to rise, providing upward momentum for the market [1]. - **Livestock**: The recent spot price has stabilized, the demand is supported, and the production capacity needs to be further released [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The current container shipping European line (EC) market is dominated by geopolitical sentiment, showing a strong - fluctuating pattern, centered around the game between geopolitical unrest and industry fundamentals, fitting the recent "off - season not off" theme [4]. - The core contradiction is the tug - of - war between the upward momentum brought by geopolitical sentiment and the constraints of the off - season fundamentals. The European line is in a seasonal off - season with insufficient cargo volume support, and the effectiveness of shipping companies' price - holding actions remains to be verified. There is also a potential risk of capacity spillover from the suspended Middle - East routes [4]. - In the short term, the market is mainly affected by geopolitical news with large fluctuations and is relatively strong; in the long term, it depends on the progress of the geopolitical situation, the seasonal recovery schedule of April cargo volume, and the dynamic balance of capacity allocation, gradually returning to fundamentals. There is a risk of market correction if geopolitical sentiment eases [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News - Israel carried out air strikes on multiple targets in Iran. Iran launched ballistic missiles at all Gulf countries except Oman. The Houthi rebels will resume attacks on shipping in the Red Sea corridor [2] Shipping Price Index - **China Export Container Freight Index**: The current values of SCFI - US West, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - US East, SCFI - Northwest Europe, CCFI, and the comprehensive SCFI index are 1489, 2717, 1452, 1054, 1121, and 1940 respectively, with corresponding increases of 11.71%, 0.93%, 4.47%, 7.27%, 0.97%, and 2.25%. The current values of SCFI - Mediterranean and SCFIS - Northwest Europe are 2360 and 1545 respectively, with increases of 5.60% and 2.39% [1][2] Market Trend - The overall market situation is rising. The European line market is mainly influenced by geopolitical sentiment, with short - term strength and large fluctuations, and long - term return to fundamentals [3][4] Strategy - Adopt a wait - and - see approach and consider 4 - 5 reverse arbitrage [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - On March 9, platinum and palladium prices opened lower and then fluctuated upward, with the decline narrowing. The PT2606 contract closed down 1.43% to 549.35 yuan/gram, and the PD2606 contract closed down 2.18% to 412.7 yuan/gram [5]. - On the macro - level, the continuous tension in the Middle East geopolitical situation has pushed up crude oil prices, increasing inflation risks, weakening interest - rate cut expectations, and rising concerns about economic recession, which put pressure on platinum and palladium prices. However, the unexpected weakness of the US February non - farm payrolls increased the risk of economic stagflation, combined with the risk of the US private - credit crisis and the G7's plan to coordinate the release of oil reserves, causing oil prices to give back gains and the US dollar index to weaken, providing support for platinum and palladium prices [5]. - Fundamentally, the WPIC estimates that the global platinum market will face a supply shortage for the fourth consecutive year, and the imbalance between supply and demand may continue to support platinum prices, but the narrowing of the shortage in 2026 may limit its upward space. The palladium fundamentals are weaker than platinum, and its overall performance may continue to be inferior to platinum. In the short term, platinum and palladium are expected to maintain wide - range fluctuations. After the Middle East geopolitical situation becomes clear, investors can consider going long on platinum at low prices or continue to hold the [long platinum, short palladium] strategy [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Domestic Prices (yuan/gram) - Platinum futures main contract closing price: 549.35, previous value 560.5, down 1.99% [5]. - Platinum (99.95%) spot price: 536.5, previous value 547.5, down 2.01% [5]. - Platinum basis (spot - futures): - 12.85, previous value - 13, down 1.15% [5]. - Palladium futures main contract closing price: 412.7, previous value 421.5, down 2.09% [5]. - Palladium (99.95%) spot price: 407.5, previous value 422.5, down 3.55% [5]. - Palladium basis (spot - futures): - 5.2, down 620.00% [5]. International Prices (15:00, dollar/ounce) - London spot platinum: 2112.3, previous value 2155.4, down 2.00% [5]. - London spot palladium: 1605.7, previous value 1662.08, down 3.39% [5]. - NYMEX platinum: 2134, previous value 2154.9, down 0.97% [5]. - NYMEX palladium: 1634, previous value 1676, down 2.51% [5]. Internal - External 15:00 Spread (yuan/gram,含税) - Dollar/yuan central parity rate: 6.9158, previous value 6.9025, up 0.19% [5]. - Guangzhou platinum - London platinum: 18.63, previous value 19.99, down 6.82% [5]. - Guangzhou platinum - NYMEX platinum: 13.18, previous value 20.12, down 34.50% [5]. - Guangzhou palladium - London palladium: 9.26, previous value 4.70, up 97.07% [5]. - Guangzhou palladium - NYMEX palladium: 2.15, previous value 1.21, up 77.95% [5]. Platinum - Palladium Price Ratio - Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum/palladium price ratio: 1.3311, previous value 1.3298, increase of 0.0013 [5]. - London spot platinum/palladium price ratio: 1.3155, previous value 1.2968, increase of 0.0187 [5]. Inventory (Troy Ounces) - NYMEX platinum inventory: 205098, previous value 205098, unchanged [5]. - NYMEX palladium inventory: 582441, previous value 583452, down 0.17% [5]. Position - NYMEX total platinum position: 70154, previous value 72351, down 3.04% [5]. - NYMEX non - commercial net long position of platinum: 13832, previous value 13240, up 4.47% [5]. - NYMEX total palladium position: 16093, previous value 16423, down 2.01% [5]. - NYMEX non - commercial net long position of palladium: 161, previous value 664, down 75.75% [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - High oil prices have lifted the cost center of aromatics, and constrained feedstock supply has affected aromatic production. With downstream demand steadily improving, pure benzene and styrene prices are expected to remain strong and volatile. Near - term supply - demand fundamentals are supported by geopolitical factors, and long calendar spreads in pure benzene and styrene are recommended [9][11] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Movement - Ongoing geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have pushed up oil prices, raising the cost center of aromatic hydrocarbons and impacting production due to restricted feedstock supply. On March 9 morning trading, styrene and pure benzene hit price limit up. The main pure benzene contract rose 9.99% to 8,155 yuan per tonne, and the main styrene contract increased 8.99% to 9,587 yuan per tonne, reaching recent multi - year highs [5][6] Benzene - **Supply side**: Many producers plan to reduce operating rates due to expectations of rising feedstock prices and tight supply [7][10] - **Demand side**: Bullish price expectations have led to active buying from downstream sectors, enabling smooth price transmission and improved profitability for most pure benzene downstream industries [7][10] Styrene - **Supply side**: Gulei Petrochemical has entered maintenance, and Sinochem Quanzhou has reduced operating rates due to feedstock issues, with further production cuts expected. Ethylene, another key feedstock, has been affected by geopolitical tensions. Rising naphtha and methanol prices have widened ethylene production losses, leading to expectations of reduced operating rates or maintenance at some plants, which may disrupt non - integrated styrene units [8][11] - **Demand side**: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused feedstock shortages at Asian refineries and disrupted Middle Eastern styrene exports, widening the global styrene supply gap and boosting China's styrene export transactions. Rising styrene prices have triggered active restocking by downstream and end - users, with improved profits across the three major styrene downstream sectors and strong bullish sentiment [8][11]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical issues have led to a significant increase in crude oil prices, pushing up the cost of PTA. Market concerns about PX enterprise production cuts have caused the PX market to rise, and downstream polyester factory quotes have increased significantly, creating a strong bullish sentiment in the market [2] - The Northeast Asian refineries are highly dependent on crude oil supplies from the Middle East. Due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, these refineries are facing a shortage of crude oil supply and have to reduce their production. The speculative sentiment in the Asian PX market has rebounded, but the physical supply is tight, and PX physical goods are starting to become scarce [2] - The Middle East situation is tense, and the market is in chaos. The large - scale reduction and shutdown of Asian naphtha cracking units, along with domestic refineries' production cuts, have led to a sharp rise in domestic ethylene glycol prices due to concerns about raw material shortages [2] Group 3: Summaries by Directory Market Data - INE crude oil price rose from 664.8 yuan/barrel on March 6, 2026, to 771.8 yuan/barrel on March 9, 2026, an increase of 107 yuan/barrel [2] - PTA - SC decreased from 1238.8 yuan/ton to 707.3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 531.58 yuan/ton; PTA/SC ratio decreased from 1.2564 to 1.1261, a decrease of 0.1303 [2] - CFR China PX increased from 1079 to 1346, an increase of 267; PX - naphtha spread increased from 303 to 570, an increase of 267 [2] - PTA main contract futures price increased from 6070 yuan/ton to 6316 yuan/ton, an increase of 246 yuan/ton; PTA spot price increased from 5865 yuan/ton to 7200 yuan/ton, an increase of 1335 yuan/ton [2] - PTA spot processing fee decreased from 367.3 yuan/ton to - 732.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1099.9 yuan/ton; PTA futures processing fee decreased from 447.3 yuan/ton to - 711.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1158.9 yuan/ton [2] - MEG main contract futures price increased from 4377 yuan/ton to 4597 yuan/ton, an increase of 220 yuan/ton; MEG - naphtha increased from - 238.87 yuan/ton to - 199.06 yuan/ton, an increase of 39.8 yuan/ton [2] - MEG domestic price increased from 4267 yuan/ton to 4813 yuan/ton, an increase of 546 yuan/ton [2] Industry Chain Operation - PX operating rate decreased from 83.68% to 80.79%, a decrease of 2.89%; PTA operating rate remained unchanged at 79.81%; MEG operating rate decreased from 57.93% to 56.02%, a decrease of 1.91%; polyester load increased from 80.92% to 84.50%, an increase of 3.58% [2] Product Data - POY150D/48F price increased from 7700 yuan/ton to 9800 yuan/ton, an increase of 2100 yuan/ton; POY cash flow increased from 6 to 782, an increase of 776 [2] - FDY150D/96F price increased from 7910 yuan/ton to 10260 yuan/ton, an increase of 2350 yuan/ton; FDY cash flow increased from - 284 to 742, an increase of 1026 [2] - DTY150D/48F price increased from 8745 yuan/ton to 11140 yuan/ton, an increase of 2395 yuan/ton; DTY cash flow increased from - 149 to 922, an increase of 1071 [2] - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price increased from 7375 yuan/ton to 8510 yuan/ton, an increase of 1135 yuan/ton; polyester staple fiber cash flow decreased from 31 to - 158, a decrease of 189 [2] - Semi - bright chip price increased from 6600 yuan/ton to 8150 yuan/ton, an increase of 1550 yuan/ton; chip cash flow increased from - 194 to 32, an increase of 226 [2] Sales Data - Filament sales decreased from 107% to 19%, a decrease of 88%; polyester staple fiber sales decreased from 93% to 41%, a decrease of 52%; chip sales decreased from 205% to 21%, a decrease of 184% [2] Device Maintenance - A 2.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China that was shut down for maintenance around February 10 has returned to normal operation. A 3.6 - million - ton PTA device in East China that was operating at 50% capacity has also returned to normal. A 1.25 - million - ton PTA device in South China that was under maintenance in mid - January has returned to normal [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Crude oil is expected to strengthen significantly due to geopolitical impacts. Northeast Asian refineries are facing tight crude oil supplies and have to reduce their production loads because of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The speculative sentiment in the Asian PX market has rebounded, but the physical supply is tight, and PX physical goods are in short supply. Downstream replenishment is rapid, the polyester operating load is lower than expected, and the post - Spring Festival downstream start - up is average. South Korea, India, and Thailand may face significant operational difficulties, and the floating spread of PX has reached +40. The PX - naphtha spread has rebounded to $300. Tensions in the Middle East bring short - term energy price volatility risks, and the upstream price increase has begun to be transmitted downstream [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Price Changes - PTA spot price increased from 5865 to 7200, with a change of 1335; MEG inner - market price rose from 4267 to 4813, a change of 546; PTA closing price increased from 6070 to 6316, a change of 246; MEG closing price rose from 4377 to 4597, a change of 220; 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price increased from 7375 to 8510, a change of 1135; short - fiber basis increased from - 48 to 1071, a change of 1119; 4 - 5 spread decreased from 0 to - 2, a change of - 2; polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, a change of 6; 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price increased from 5650 to 6215, a change of 565; the spread between 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber increased from 1725 to 2295, a change of 570; East China water bottle chip price increased from 7039 to 8562, a change of 1523; hot - filled polyester bottle chip price increased from 7039 to 8562, a change of 1523; carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price increased from 7139 to 8662, a change of 1523; outer - market water bottle chip price increased from 950 to 1050, a change of 100; bottle - chip spot processing fee increased from 595 to 794, a change of 199; T32S pure polyester yarn price increased from 11450 to 12500, a change of 1050; T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee decreased from 4075 to 3990, a change of - 85; polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price increased from 17200 to 17700, a change of 500; cotton 328 price increased from 16400 to 16425, a change of 25; polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 1111 to 849, a change of - 262; primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price increased from 7955 to 9275, a change of 1320; hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D cash flow decreased from 311 to 307, a change of - 4; primary low - melting - point staple fiber price increased from 8470 to 9400, a change of 930 [2]. Market Conditions - **Short - fiber market**: The main short - fiber futures rose 516 to 7864. In the spot market, due to the escalation of geopolitical tensions and strong cost support, polyester staple fiber production factories significantly and successively raised prices. Traders' prices refer to futures and factory offers, but downstream acceptance of high prices is poor, and on - site transactions are light. The price of 1.56dtex*38mm semi - gloss (1.4D) polyester staple fiber in the East China market is 7860 - 9450 cash on delivery including tax for self - pick - up, 7980 - 9570 cash on delivery including tax for delivery in the North China market, and 8500 - 9550 cash on delivery including tax for delivery in the Fujian market [2]. - **Bottle - chip market**: The polyester bottle - chip market price showed a wide - range upward trend. PTA and bottle - chip futures were strong and hit the daily limit. Tensions in the geopolitical situation and market concerns about raw material supplies strongly supported the market. Most suppliers suspended quotes, downstream demand was cautious, and market transactions were sporadic [2]. Operating Load and Production and Sales - Direct - spun short - fiber load (weekly) decreased from 76.98% to 84.13%, a change of - 7.15%; polyester staple fiber production and sales increased from - 28.00% to 70.00%, a change of 42.00%; polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) increased from 70.00% to 70.32%, a change of 0.32%; recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) decreased from - 0.63% to 55.44%, a change of 54.81% [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical situation, especially the conflict between the US and Iran, significantly impacts the prices of various commodities. Oil - related products are particularly sensitive to the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, with supply disruptions leading to price fluctuations. - Different industries face different supply - demand dynamics. For example, some industries have supply shortages due to geopolitical factors, while others are affected by domestic policies and seasonal demand. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Oil Products 3.1.1 Crude Oil - Logic: Oil prices dropped significantly during the day as the US - Iran situation showed signs of cooling. - Fundamentals: The Strait of Hormuz is not navigable. Kuwait has stopped oil production, and Iraq has cut production by 70%. Refineries have reduced their operating loads, causing a shortage of refined oil products. The G7 and the IEA are discussing the release of oil reserves, and Saudi Aramco is providing spot oil supplies, which has eased market pressure [3]. - Macro: Geopolitical tensions have led to soaring oil prices, impacting inflation and economic growth. Middle - Eastern countries face increased fiscal pressure, and the market has a short - term risk - aversion tendency [3]. - Geopolitical: The US - Iran conflict is the focus. Trump said the war would end soon, and the oil price showed a downward trend with the cooling of geopolitical tensions. Geopolitical premiums are expected to remain high in the short term [3]. 3.1.2 Fuel Oil - Logic: High - sulfur fuel oil continues to be strong due to supply disruptions in the Middle East, while low - sulfur fuel oil has limited fundamental support [5][6]. - Fundamentals: High - sulfur fuel oil: On March 9, FU hit the daily limit again due to supply cuts in the Middle East. The G7 is discussing the release of strategic oil reserves. The war - risk insurance rate in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz has increased. The high - sulfur internal - external price difference has decreased but is still high. Russian supply disruptions also support high - sulfur fuel oil. Low - sulfur fuel oil: It has risen with crude oil, but the fundamentals are weak. There are new supplies from some refineries, and the demand for low - sulfur marine fuel is weak [5][6]. 3.1.3 LPG - Logic: Be wary of the risk of price decline after continuous increases. - Fundamentals: Geopolitical tensions persist, the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, and the supply of LPG from the Middle East is expected to shrink. Crude oil prices have soared, strengthening cost support. LPG prices at home and abroad have risen significantly. However, there is a risk of a price correction after continuous increases [7]. 3.2 Aromatics - Polyester 3.2.1 PTA - Logic: Pay attention to the latest developments in the geopolitical conflict. - Fundamentals: The TA2605 contract rose 7.53% overnight and significantly reduced its positions. The spot market has a weak trading atmosphere, and the spot basis is strong. PTA production capacity utilization is 81% (+4.4 pct). An PX device in East China has stopped unexpectedly. The demand side shows that the production capacity utilization of polyester, texturing, weaving, and dyeing has increased. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang over the weekend were good, but weak on the day of the report [9]. 3.3 Coal Chemical Industry 3.3.1 Urea - Logic: Supply and policies limit the emotional premium. - Fundamentals: The guidance price restricts the price increase. Factories stabilize prices to fulfill orders, and downstream demand is cautious. The domestic urea market has a situation of both supply and demand being strong. Spring plowing demand is ongoing, and industrial demand is recovering, providing some support to the price. However, the high daily production and the stable guidance price limit the price increase space [11]. 3.3.2 Methanol - Logic: Be wary of the risk of a high - level correction after the overnight plunge in oil prices. - Fundamentals: The energy - chemical sector rose collectively on Monday, but the night session opened high and went low. The near - month contracts did not continue to hit the daily limit due to high port inventories and exchange risk - control measures. The market is worried about the supply disruption of Middle - Eastern goods in the long - term, increasing the activity of far - month contracts. There is a risk of negative feedback from downstream and a disconnection between futures and spot prices [12][13]. 3.4 Salt Chemical Industry 3.4.1 Soda Ash - Logic: High - level fluctuations intensify. - Fundamentals: The short - term spot sentiment follows the futures market. The cost of coal has not increased, and the supply remains high, but the daily output has decreased slightly. The demand is mainly speculative. In the long - term, the high - inventory situation needs to be improved through factory production cuts or increased exports, but the upward driving force is not clear [14]. 3.4.2 Glass - Logic: High - level fluctuations intensify. - Fundamentals: The spot sentiment has improved, following the futures market. Two production lines were shut down, reducing the supply. The short - term speculative demand has been released, but the actual rigid demand is still weak. The supply is expected to continue to decline, and the market will fluctuate between weak demand and low supply. The real improvement in the supply - demand situation may come after the real - estate market recovers in the second quarter [15][17]. 3.4.3 Caustic Soda - Logic: High - level fluctuations intensify. - Fundamentals: The shortage of ethylene affects foreign production capacity. Although the domestic caustic soda market has a contradiction between high production and high inventory, the expected improvement in exports supports the price increase. The key to the price increase lies in the navigation time of the Strait of Hormuz. If the export demand, new alumina production demand, and spring inspection demand of caustic soda factories resonate, the price may rise further [18]. 3.5 Non - ferrous Metals 3.5.1 Copper - Logic: The conflict may end, and copper prices are oscillating strongly. - Fundamentals: Inventories in Shanghai and London have increased, and the short - term macro - risk aversion has declined, with the US dollar falling, supporting copper prices. Although downstream demand has improved, it is suppressed by the strong US dollar. After the Lantern Festival, the resumption of work has accelerated, and the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down. Trump's hint that the war is about to end has led to an increase in copper prices [19]. 3.5.2 Gold - Logic: The employment market has declined, and gold prices are oscillating strongly. - Fundamentals: The Middle - East situation may lead to long - term inflation through the energy channel, which may cause central banks to tighten monetary policies, reducing the anti - inflation appeal of gold. Trump's statement that the war is about to end has led to a weakening of the US dollar, supporting the rise of gold prices [20][21]. 3.5.3 Silver - Logic: The price has broken through the resistance and risen. - Fundamentals: The US non - farm unemployment rate has risen to 4.4%, and the weak data has made the market expect the Fed to accelerate interest rate cuts. However, the strong US dollar and the escalation of the Middle - East conflict have suppressed silver prices. Trump's statement that the war may end soon has led to a decline in the US dollar's safe - haven function, and silver prices have broken through [22].