电话：0571-87006873 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 6 月 24 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色分化，铜强铝弱 核心观点 沪铜 昨夜铜价夜盘走强，伦铜拉升至 9700 美元一线。盘后特朗普表示 伊朗和以色列将全面停火，美铜拉升至 5 美分/磅一线。今日午间新 华社快讯:据伊朗新闻电视台报道，伊朗 24 日对以色列发动数轮袭击 后，停火开始。产业层面，23 日 Mysteel 电解铜社库为 13.19 万吨， 较上去去库 1.05 万吨。产业补库意愿上升，7-8 月差也有所走强。 此外，近期海外伦铜升水明显走强，这说明了海外电解铜 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 伊以冲突缓和，油价挤出地缘溢价。周末美国下场对伊朗核设施进行轰炸， | | 原油 | 偏弱 | 伊朗扬言封锁霍尔木兹海峡，当地时间 23 日，特朗普宣布，以色列和伊 | | | | 朗已同意全面停火，油价大幅回落。当前油价重回供需基本面定价，走势 | | | | 震荡偏弱。策略：短期建议观望，等待地缘风险进一步释放。SC【510-540】 | | | | 地缘缓和，成本端大幅下降，液化气承压。特朗普宣布，以色列和伊朗已 | | LPG | 偏弱 | 同意全面停火，成本端油价大幅回落；下游化工需求继续回升，PDH、烷 | | | | 基化、MTBE 开工率上升；库存端利好，港口库存连续下降。策略：成本 | | | | 端利空，可轻仓试空。PG【4200-4350】 | | | | 地缘降温，社库大幅去化，停车比例升至 19%，华北基差为-54（环比-29）。 | | L | 2024 | 年自伊朗进口 LL、HD、LD 占比分别为 2%、9%、13%，进口存缩量 | | | 空头盘整 | 预期。本周检修力度增 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-06-24 地缘政治驱动油价⾛向，化⼯格局偏震 荡 美国总统周一表态，希望维持低油价，并要求美国能源生产商在美军 袭击伊朗后压低油价，原油价格因此回落。同时美国表示彻底摧毁了伊朗 的核基础设施，这一点可能也达到了美国的目的。与此同时，以色列战机 继续对伊朗的导弹系统、空军基地及福尔多核设施发动空袭。船舶跟踪数 据显示，周日有44艘油轮霍尔木兹海峡，这符合本月初以来的正常水平。 地缘政治动向决定油价波动，当前格局仍有不确定性。 板块逻辑： 油品和油化工相对于原油的估值已经出现了连续三周的压缩，假设原 油不会快速趋势走弱，化工品的格局相对原油将略略偏强，诸多品种的利 润在原油的上涨中大幅压缩，短期继续加工化工相当于在做空油价。另一 方面化工品的下游及终端对当前的高价格仍难以跟随，化工自身的上行空 间也有限。未来很可能是油价小幅调整，化工延续震荡的格局。 原油：地缘担忧缓解，油价重回弱势 LPG：地缘风险仍存，成本端支撑PG盘面 沥青：等待地缘降温，沥青期价震荡 高硫燃油：等待地缘降温，燃油期价震荡 低硫燃油：低硫燃油期价跟随 ...

2025 年 06 月 24 日 短纤：地缘降温，产业链压力重回主导 瓶片：地缘降温，产业链压力重回主导 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅（联系人） 从业资格号：F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 短纤2507 | 昨日 6922 | 前日 6926 | 变化 -4 | PF07-08 | 昨日 96 | 前日 102 | 变化 -6 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PF | 短纤2508 | 6826 | 6824 | 2 | PF08-09 | 102 | 128 | -26 | | | 短纤2509 | 6724 | ୧୧୨୧ | 28 | PF基差 | 89 | 66 | 23 | | | 短纤持仓量 | 283319 | 296360 | -13041 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6. 915 | 6.890 | 25 | | | 短纤成交量 | 305007 | 324104 | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about the industry investment ratings in the provided content. Core Views - Gold: Geopolitical ceasefire [2] - Silver: Continue to surge [2] - Copper: Decreasing inventory supports prices [2] - Aluminum: Awaiting direction selection [2] - Alumina: Range-bound oscillation [2] - Aluminum alloy: Under pressure [2] - Zinc: Short - term upward movement with position reduction [2] - Lead: Bullish in the medium - term [2] - Tin: Tight current situation but weak future expectations [2] - Nickel: Loosening expectations at the distal nickel ore end, and smelting end restricts upward elasticity [2] - Stainless steel: Both supply and demand are marginally weak, and steel prices fluctuate at a low level [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals Gold - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2508 was 781.30, with a daily increase of 0.35%. The trading volume of Comex Gold 2508 decreased by 86,664 compared to the previous day, and the position decreased by 3,014 [5]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of Shanghai Gold remained unchanged, and the spread between Gold T + D and London Gold was 392.59 [5]. Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2508 was 8770, with a daily increase of 1.20%. The trading volume of Comex Silver 2508 decreased by 53,919 compared to the previous day [5]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of Shanghai Silver decreased by 12,761 kg, and the spread between Silver T + D and London Silver was 3,741 [5]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 78,290, with a daily increase of 0.38%. The trading volume of the London Copper 3M electronic disk decreased by 3,657 compared to the previous day [10]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of Shanghai Copper decreased by 8,354 tons, and the inventory of London Copper decreased by 3,325 tons. The spread between Shanghai copper spot and LME cash decreased by 280 [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Israel and Iran agreed to a comprehensive cease - fire. In May 2025, China's exports of unwrought copper and copper products decreased by 23.6% year - on - year [10][12]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy Aluminum - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20,365, down 100 from the previous day. The trading volume of the LME Aluminum 3M increased by 19,786 compared to the previous day [13]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The LME注销仓单占比 was 5.62%, down 0.52% from the previous day. The spread between the near - month contract and the consecutive - first contract was 100 [13]. Alumina - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2,906. The trading volume of the Shanghai Alumina main contract increased by 11,654 compared to the previous day [13]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The spread between the near - month contract and the consecutive - first contract was 58, down 3 from the previous day [13]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 19,680, up 40 from the previous day. The trading volume of the aluminum alloy main contract decreased by 1,426 compared to the previous day [13]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The spot premium was 160, down 20 from the previous day [13]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 21,780, with a daily increase of 0.48%. The trading volume of the London Zinc increased by 38 compared to the previous day [16]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of Shanghai Zinc decreased by 1,024 tons, and the LME CASH - 3M premium was - 24.65, up 2.24 from the previous day [16]. - **News**: Israel and Iran agreed to a comprehensive cease - fire [17]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 16,920, with a daily increase of 0.65%. The trading volume of the London Lead increased by 157 compared to the previous day [19]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of Shanghai Lead decreased by 100 tons, and the LME CASH - 3M premium was - 28.49, up 2.72 from the previous day [19]. - **News**: Israel and Iran agreed to a comprehensive cease - fire [20]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 261,880, with a daily increase of 0.51%. The trading volume of the London Tin 3M electronic disk decreased by 9 compared to the previous day [23]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of Shanghai Tin increased by 32 tons, and the SMM 1 tin ingot price decreased by 1,500 compared to the previous day [23]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Israel and Iran agreed to a comprehensive cease - fire [24]. Stainless Steel and Nickel Nickel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 117,440, down 840 from the previous day. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract increased by 34,478 compared to the previous day [27]. - **Industry Chain Data**: The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 1, and the spread between nickel plate and high - nickel iron was 264 [27]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 12,390, down 115 from the previous day. The trading volume of the stainless steel main contract increased by 55,928 compared to the previous day [27]. - **Industry News**: Some nickel - related projects in Canada, Indonesia, and the Philippines have new developments, and an Indonesian cold - rolling mill will continue to shut down for maintenance [27][28][30].

伊朗和以色列没有立即对特朗普的声明发表评论。美国副总统万斯说，特朗普总统周一一直在"不停地打电话"，目标是达成一项协议。 就在特朗普宣布这一消息的同时，伊朗媒体报道称德黑兰和其他几个城市发生了强烈爆炸。与此同时，伊朗外交部长阿拉格奇（Abbas Araghchi）表示，德 黑兰并不寻求紧张局势升级，但已准备好应对美国的任何进一步侵略。 特朗普宣布停火后，万斯在接受福克斯新闻采访时说，美国上周末的轰炸已经达到了目的。 万斯说："我们知道他们无法制造核武器，"他补充说，伊朗现有的高浓缩铀库存已被这次袭击"掩埋"。"如果伊朗将来不顾一切地要制造核武器，那么他们 将不得不面对非常、非常强大的美国军队。" 周二亚市盘初，美国总统特朗普宣布，以色列和伊朗已完全达成一致，将实现全面停火。 WTI原油高开后闻讯转跌，截止发稿，短线大跌3%，跌破65美元/桶，隔夜国际油价已经暴跌9%！同时，现货黄金跌破3360美元/盎司，日内跌0.26%。 美股股指期货早盘延续反弹，标普500指数期货涨幅达0.5%，纳指期货上涨0.6%。比特币站上106000美元/枚，日内涨4.99%。 特朗普在Truth Social上表示，以色列和伊朗已 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the deepening energy cooperation between China and Russia amidst complex geopolitical dynamics and Russia's economic challenges [1][3][4] - In April 2025, Chinese and Russian energy officials met to discuss enhancing energy cooperation, emphasizing the strategic nature of their partnership [3][4] - Russia has increased its oil supply limit to China from 10 million tons to 12.5 million tons, reflecting its reliance on China to alleviate economic pressures [3][4] Group 2 - The "Power of Siberia 2" gas pipeline project faces challenges regarding its route, with considerations of passing through Mongolia or Kazakhstan, both presenting logistical and financial hurdles [4][6] - Mongolia's role in the energy cooperation is complicated by its geopolitical stance, which may affect the stability and cost of energy transit [6][8] - The long-term prospects of Sino-Russian energy cooperation are promising, but require careful navigation of mutual interests and geopolitical factors [8][9]

【上周商品市场整体收涨，各板块走势分化】上周，商品市场整体收涨2.29%。其中，能化涨幅较大， 达4.11%；农产品和黑色分别上涨2.10%和0.91%；贵金属和有色金属分别下跌1.76%和0.09%。从具体品 种收盘价看，原油、甲醇和短纤涨幅居前，分别为8.82%、5.86%和5.31%；黄金、纸浆和白银跌幅较 大，分别为1.99%、1.50%和1.44%。资金方面有所下降，主要受贵金属资金流出影响。 展望后市，伊以 局势演化受关注，决定短期大类资产走向和定价逻辑。周末美国攻击伊朗核设施，市场有伊朗封锁霍尔 木兹海峡预期，能源价格偏强。但美国有维稳诉求，短期不确定性仍存，需观察伊朗反击力度。风险偏 好短期承压，人民币稳定下冲击有限，需跟踪能源隐含波动率和离岸美元流动性情况。 贵金属方面， 国际金价高位整理。因美联储官员释放偏鸽信号、市场对年内降息预期升温，美元指数回落助推资金流 入黄金市场。地缘政治紧张未缓和，全球央行购金持续，为黄金提供支撑。白银受制造业数据波动影 响，呈区间震荡。 有色金属板块整体窄幅震荡。铜价高位整理，受海外库存偏紧、全球新能源投资延 续支撑，但受美联储利率政策及高位消费乏力影响，动能 ...

【上周商品市场整体收涨，多板块走势分化】上周，商品市场整体收涨2.29%。其中，能化涨幅较大， 达4.11%；农产品和黑色分别上涨2.10%和0.91%；贵金属和有色金属分别下跌1.76%和0.09%。从具体品 种收盘价看，原油、甲醇和短纤涨幅居前，分别为8.82%、5.86%和5.31%；黄金、纸浆和白银跌幅较 大，分别为1.99%、1.50%和1.44%。资金方面有所下降，主要受贵金属资金流出影响。 展望后市，伊以 局势演化受关注，决定短期大类资产走向和定价逻辑。周末美国攻击伊朗核设施，市场有伊朗封锁霍尔 木兹海峡预期，能源价格偏强。但美国有维稳诉求，短期不确定性仍在，需观察伊朗反击力度。风险偏 好短期承压，人民币稳定下冲击有限，需继续跟踪能源隐含波动率和离岸美元流动性稳定情况。 贵金 属方面，国际金价高位整理，受美联储官员偏鸽信号、市场降息预期升温影响，美元指数回落助推资金 流入。地缘政治紧张、全球央行购金提供支撑。白银受制造业数据影响区间震荡。有色金属板块整体窄 幅震荡。铜价高位整理，海外库存偏紧、新能源投资延续提供支撑，但受美联储政策和消费乏力影响动 能放缓；铝价在成本线附近获支撑，市场关注电力成本 ...

Core Viewpoint - Mobileye's stock experienced a significant increase of 11.6% due to geopolitical events and macroeconomic factors, outperforming the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite which both gained 0.9% [1] Geopolitical Factors - Investors reacted positively to Iran's missile strikes on U.S. bases in Iraq and Qatar, interpreting them as a sign that military tensions might deescalate [2][5] - The U.S. had conducted airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, raising concerns about potential escalation in the Middle East, but the nature of Iran's retaliatory strikes appeared largely symbolic and preemptively communicated to U.S. officials, resulting in no reported casualties [4][5] - Mobileye, being headquartered in Israel, could face challenges if geopolitical stability worsens, but the current signs of deescalation have positively impacted its stock price [6] Macroeconomic Factors - Comments from Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman suggested that a rate cut could be possible next month, which contributed to the bullish sentiment in the stock market [7][8] - Bowman's remarks indicated that the macroeconomic environment might be more favorable for a rate cut than previously thought, potentially benefiting Mobileye and other growth stocks if the Fed decides to lower rates [8]