Group 1: Report Overview - Report Type: Fixed Income Report - Release Date: October 13, 2025 - Analyst: Liang Weichao - SAC Registration Number: S1340523070001 - Email: liangweichao@cnpsec.com [1][2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The bond market is expected to move in a volatile manner in the fourth quarter. The 30 - 10 and 10 - 1 year Treasury yield spreads have reflected the risk preference repair, and the current bond market has allocation value. Supply pressure is expected to ease, there may be opportunities for monetary easing, and redemption pressure will persist. The bond market may alternate between repair and adjustment, with repair driven by allocation value and adjustment due to redemption pressure. If there is an opportunity for monetary easing, the emotional repair will accelerate, followed by faster unwinding and selling [3][10]. - After the holiday, liquidity enters the seasonal easing window at the beginning of the quarter. The marginal easing of the capital market has intensified, and the current capital price has fallen to the lowest level in the same period of history, with the central level dropping back to the policy rate. The continued decline in capital prices has promoted the warming of easing expectations and the repair of bond market sentiment [3][10]. - The short - end is in a high - allocation value range, and the long - short term spread has fully priced in the risk preference repair. The current pricing level is close to the historical average, so the long - short term spread is reasonably priced, which can control the risk of further upward movement of the long - end. The downward drive of the long - end depends on the decline of risk preference or the opportunity of monetary easing [3][12]. - Recently, the risk - aversion sentiment has increased, and bond market trading is "better to stop than to chase". The risk - aversion sentiment comes from international geopolitics with high uncertainty, the disturbance of redemption problems still exists during the market repair, and the yield is about to fall to the chip - intensive area. Therefore, although the bond market has recovered under the drive of risk - aversion sentiment, the yield is unlikely to return to the state of rapid decline, and chasing the rise requires caution [4][14]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Is it time to chase or stop the risk - aversion sentiment? - **Market Outlook**: The bond market in the fourth quarter may move in a volatile manner. The yield spreads have reflected risk preference repair, and the market has allocation value. Supply pressure may ease, there may be monetary easing opportunities, and redemption pressure will continue. The market may alternate between repair and adjustment [10]. - **Liquidity Analysis**: After the holiday, liquidity enters the seasonal easing window at the beginning of the quarter. The capital price has fallen to the lowest level in the same period of history, and the continued decline has promoted the warming of easing expectations and bond market sentiment. This is related to the calendar effect of funds and the central bank's liquidity management [10]. - **Short - end and Term Spread Analysis**: The short - end is in a high - allocation value range as the risk of capital tightening is low. The long - short term spread has fully priced in the risk preference repair, and the current pricing is close to the historical average, which can control the long - end upward risk. The long - end downward drive depends on risk preference decline or monetary easing [12]. - **Risk - aversion and Trading Advice**: The risk - aversion sentiment comes from international geopolitics with high uncertainty. The redemption problem still disturbs the market, and the yield is about to fall to the chip - intensive area. Bond market trading is "better to stop than to chase" [14][15].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 1.378 trillion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous rate, resulting in a net injection of 1.378 trillion yuan due to no reverse repos maturing on that day [1] - From September 28 to October 11, the central bank's reverse repo net withdrawal reached 1.3304 trillion yuan, with a significant operation of 1.1 trillion yuan 3-month reverse repos announced on October 9, contrasting with a net injection of 300 billion yuan for the month [1] - Despite the large-scale reverse repos maturing after the holiday, funding prices gradually returned to pre-quarter-end levels, with overnight funding rates dropping to 1.33%, down 21 basis points from before the holiday [1] Group 2 - The upcoming week (October 13-17) will see a decrease in reverse repo maturities to 1.021 trillion yuan, with significant amounts maturing on Thursday and Friday, and a total of 8 billion yuan 3-month reverse repos maturing on Tuesday [2] - Analysts expect the funding environment to remain loose, as the central bank's proactive measures and limited government bond net payments will help mitigate external disturbances [2] - The liquidity test in October is anticipated to be concentrated at the end of the month, with tax payment deadlines delayed to October 27, coinciding with the month-end liquidity pressure [3] Group 3 - The PBOC's liquidity injection tools have shifted towards longer-term MLF and reverse repos since the third quarter, reducing the necessity for frequent short-term operations [4] - Despite the increase in reverse repo maturities post-holiday, the central bank's consistent stance on liquidity provision suggests limited impact on the funding environment [4] - Analysts from Citic Securities believe that the liquidity gap in October may be weaker than seasonal trends, with the central bank's monetary policy remaining accommodative [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The liquidity gap in October is expected to be weaker than seasonal trends, with limited risks of liquidity tightening due to the central bank's accommodative monetary policy stance [1] Group 1: Liquidity Analysis - The overall net financing of government bonds in October is projected to be approximately 600 billion yuan, considering the easing supply pressure from local government bond issuance plans [1] - The estimated liquidity gap for October is around 500 billion yuan, excluding factors such as the maturity of Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) and reverse repos [1] - Fiscal spending is expected to be delayed, which may cause disturbances around mid-month [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the liquidity gap in October may be weaker than seasonal trends, with the central bank's monetary policy remaining accommodative, suggesting limited risks of liquidity tightening and a likely stable funding environment [1] - Government debt supply pressure is easing, with an estimated overall net financing of approximately 600 billion yuan in October based on local government bond issuance plans and national bond issuance patterns [1] - Excluding factors such as the maturity of Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) and reverse repos, the liquidity gap for October is projected to be around 500 billion yuan, although fiscal spending timing may cause some disturbances mid-month [1]

// 债市综述 // 1. 公开市场操作 央行 公告称， 10 月 11 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 1160 亿元 7 天期逆回购操 作，操作利率 1.40% ，投标量 1160 亿元，中标量 1160 亿元。 Wind 数据显示，今日无 逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放 1160 亿元。 Wind 数据显示， 10 月 13 日至 17 日当周 央行 公开市场将有 10210 逆回购到期 ，其中 周四到期 6120 亿元，周五到期 4090 亿元。此外，周二还有 8000 亿元 3 个月期买断式 逆回购到期 ，周三有 1500 亿元国库现金定存到期。 （*数据来源：Wind-央行动态PBOC） 资金面方面，银行间市场周六资金面稳定偏宽，存款类机构隔夜回购利率继续逼近 1.30% ； 匿名点击（ X-repo ）系统上，隔夜报价在 1.3% ，供给无虞。长期资金方面，全国和主要 2. 资金面 股份制银行一年期同业存单二级市场利率最新成交在 1.65% 附近，较上日稍降。交易员称， 非银类机构缺席，银行间资金面平稳偏宽局面不改， 央行 逆回购投放呵护下，短期流动性预 期无忧。 海外方面，最新美国隔夜融资 ...

Core Points - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 409 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous rate, resulting in a net withdrawal of 191 billion yuan due to 600 billion yuan of 14-day reverse repos maturing on the same day [1] - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) saw a decline across all tenors, with the overnight Shibor down by 0.30 basis points to 1.3190%, the 7-day Shibor down by 4.40 basis points to 1.4510%, and the 14-day Shibor down by 3.20 basis points to 1.4940% [1][2] Market Rates - In the interbank pledged repo market, rates for various products decreased, with the R007 transaction volume surging to 60.4%. The weighted average rates for DR001 and R001 fell by 1.0 basis points and 8.1 basis points, respectively, while DR007 and R007 dropped by 8.4 basis points and 5.2 basis points [5] - The overall funding environment was described as balanced and slightly loose, with overnight repo rates dipping to around 1.35% and 3-day repo rates falling to approximately 1.40% [9] Certificate of Deposit Market - The primary market for certificates of deposit showed a balanced and slightly loose funding environment, with overall trading sentiment remaining acceptable. The secondary market saw improved sentiment compared to the previous day, although trading sentiment weakened in the afternoon [10] - The 1-month, 3-month, and 6-month yields increased slightly compared to the previous day, while the 9-month and 1-year yields decreased [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Treasury bond futures showed a pattern of rising and then falling after the National Day holiday, with the market expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [4][45][46]. - The official manufacturing PMI in September was 49.8%, still below the boom - bust line, with production expanding and demand slightly weak. The non - manufacturing business activity index decreased slightly, and different industries showed varying degrees of prosperity [10][27]. - During the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday, domestic tourism and consumption increased, while the year - on - year decline in commercial housing transactions in 30 large - and medium - sized cities in early October widened, and the agricultural product wholesale price was relatively low year - on - year [33][36]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bond Market - **Treasury Bond Futures Performance**: After the National Day holiday, Treasury bond futures rose on Thursday and fell on Friday. The 30 - year Treasury bond fell 0.03% for the week, the 10 - year rose 0.09%, the 5 - year was flat, and the 2 - year fell 0.02% [4]. - **Treasury Bond Yield Curve**: Compared with September 30, the 2 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond yields rose slightly on October 10, while the 10 - year yield decreased slightly, and the 5 - year yield remained unchanged [7]. Manufacturing PMI - **Overall PMI**: In September, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, remaining below the boom - bust line for six consecutive months. Large enterprises continued to expand slightly, medium - sized enterprises remained stable, and the decline in small - enterprise sentiment narrowed [10]. - **Production and Demand**: The production index was 51.9%, indicating accelerated expansion. The new order index was 49.7%, showing improved demand. Some industries such as automobile manufacturing had rapid production and demand release, while others were below the critical point. The procurement volume index rose to 51.6% [13]. - **Price Index**: The raw material purchase price index was 53.2%, and the ex - factory price index was 48.2%. The former was in the expansion range for three consecutive months, while the latter declined, which may suppress corporate profits. It is expected that the year - on - year decline of PPI in September will narrow [16]. - **Export and Inventory**: The new export order index was 47.8%, and the import index was 48.1%, both showing an increase. The raw material and finished - product inventory indexes increased. The cumulative year - on - year growth of manufacturing profits from January to August was 7.4% [19][22]. - **Business Expectation**: The employment index and the production and business activity expectation index increased slightly, indicating that enterprises' expectations for future prosperity improved slightly [25]. Non - manufacturing Business Activity Index - **Overall Index**: In September, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.0%, slightly lower than the previous value. The construction industry index was 49.3%, and the service industry index was 50.1% [27]. - **Construction Industry**: The new order index, employment index, and business activity expectation index all showed some changes, with the overall prosperity slightly rising but still weak [29]. - **Service Industry**: The new order index decreased, the employment index remained unchanged, and the business activity expectation index decreased slightly. The input price index and the sales price index both declined [31]. Other Economic Data - **Holiday Consumption**: During the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday, the number of domestic tourists and total tourism spending increased. The daily average sales revenue of national consumption - related industries increased by 4.5% year - on - year, with service consumption growing faster [33]. - **Commercial Housing Transactions**: The year - on - year decline in commercial housing transactions in 30 large - and medium - sized cities in early October widened, and it is expected that the decline in the fourth quarter may exceed that in the third quarter [36]. - **Agricultural Product Prices**: In early October, the agricultural product wholesale price fluctuated narrowly, and it is expected that the year - on - year decline will narrow significantly in the next two months [39]. - **Funding Rate**: After the National Day holiday, the overnight funding rate fell to a low level. The central bank carried out a 1100 - billion - yuan repurchase operation to maintain market liquidity [43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The current bond market has a mix of bullish and bearish factors. The economic data shows that the pattern of "strong supply and weak demand" may continue, and the foundation for the recovery of effective demand is not yet solid. The weak fundamentals provide some support for the current bond market. However, in an environment lacking incremental positive news, the market is sensitive to negative news, and the uncertainty of the new regulations for public bond funds continues to disrupt the market. It is expected that treasury bond futures will continue the pattern of weak oscillation in the short term. Strategically, a band - trading approach is recommended for unilateral operations, and attention should be paid to the reverse - arbitrage opportunities after significant adjustments in long - term bonds [103]. 3. Summary Based on the Directory 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary Policy and Regulation - On October 9, the Ministry of Commerce announced export controls on certain overseas rare - earth items. Specific overseas exporters must obtain export licenses from the Ministry of Commerce before exporting to other countries and regions outside China. Export applications to overseas military users, importers, and end - users on the export control list and the watch list are generally not approved. - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued an announcement on governing price disorderly competition and maintaining a good market price order, proposing measures such as researching and evaluating industry average costs, strengthening price supervision, and standardizing tendering and bidding behaviors [9]. Fundamentals - **Domestic**: During the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday this year, the domestic consumer market showed good growth. Domestic tourism spending reached 809.006 billion yuan, an increase of 108.189 billion yuan compared to the 7 - day National Day holiday in 2024. The average daily sales revenue of consumption - related industries nationwide increased by 4.5% year - on - year. Among them, commodity consumption and service consumption increased by 3.9% and 7.6% respectively year - on - year, and digital products and automobile consumption grew rapidly. In September, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points month - on - month, and the manufacturing sentiment continued to improve; the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points, remaining at the critical point, indicating that the overall non - manufacturing business volume was stable [9]. - **Overseas**: On October 9 local time, a bill proposed by the US Republicans to end the government shutdown failed to get enough votes in the Senate. Affected by the government shutdown, important macro - data such as the US non - farm payrolls for September were postponed. The US ADP employment decreased by 32,000 in September, far lower than the expected increase of 50,000. A senior Hamas official announced a cease - fire agreement, stating that Hamas had received guarantees from mediators including the US that "the Gaza war is over" [10]. Exchange Rate - The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.1048, with a cumulative increase of 7 basis points this week [10]. Capital - This week, the central bank conducted 102.1 billion yuan in reverse repurchases in the open market, with 266.33 billion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net capital withdrawal of 164.23 billion yuan. The weighted average interest rate of DR007 fell back to around 1.42% [10]. Summary - The yields of treasury bond cash bonds varied this week. The yields of 1 - 7Y bonds changed by - 1.5 - 0.01bp, and the yields of 10Y and 30Y bonds changed by about - 0.8bp and 0.4bp respectively, reaching 1.78% and 2.13%. Treasury bond futures also showed mixed performance. The main contracts of TS and TL fell by 0.02% and 0.03% respectively, while the main contracts of TF and T rose by 0.00% and 0.09% respectively [10]. 3.2 Market Review Weekly Data - The main contract of 30 - year treasury bond futures (TL2512) fell by 0.03%, with a trading volume of 57.9847 million; the main contract of 10 - year treasury bond futures (T2512) rose by 0.09%, with a trading volume of 40.07 million; the main contract of 5 - year treasury bond futures (TF2512) had a 0.00% change, with a trading volume of 29.3581 million; the main contract of 2 - year treasury bond futures (TS2512) fell by 0.02%, with a trading volume of 14.9342 million. The prices of the top two CTD bonds also had different changes [12]. Treasury Bond Futures Market Review - The trading volumes and open interests of the main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL all decreased [31]. 3.3 News Review and Analysis - On October 9, the latest data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology showed that from January to August this year, the added value of industrial small and medium - sized enterprises above the designated size in China increased by 7.6% year - on - year, 3.3 percentage points higher than that of large enterprises. In August, the export index of small and medium - sized enterprises was 51.9%, remaining in the expansion range for 17 consecutive months. - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism announced that during the 2025 National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday, the national culture and tourism market was generally stable and orderly. The number of domestic tourist trips reached 888 million, an increase of 123 million compared to the 7 - day National Day holiday in 2024, and domestic tourism spending reached 809.006 billion yuan, an increase of 108.189 billion yuan. - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued an announcement on governing price disorderly competition and maintaining a good market price order. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other three departments adjusted the technical requirements for the exemption of new energy vehicle purchase tax from 2026 - 2027. - The Ministry of Commerce announced export controls on certain overseas rare - earth items and related technologies and included 14 foreign entities in the unreliable entity list. - A senior Hamas official announced a cease - fire agreement. - A bill proposed by the US Republicans to end the government shutdown failed to pass in the Senate, and US President Trump planned to cut some federal projects favored by Democrats [34][35][36]. 3.4 Chart Analysis Spread Changes - The spread between 10 - year and 5 - year treasury bond yields and the spread between 10 - year and 1 - year treasury bond yields oscillated. The spread between the main contracts of 2 - year and 5 - year treasury bond futures and the spread between the main contracts of 5 - year and 10 - year treasury bond futures slightly widened. The inter - term spreads of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond futures oscillated, the inter - term spread of 5 - year treasury bond futures narrowed, and the inter - term spread of 2 - year treasury bond futures oscillated [42][51][55]. Treasury Bond Futures Main Position Changes - The net long positions of the top 20 holders of the T - bond futures main contract increased [68]. Interest Rate Changes - The overnight, 2 - week, and 1 - month Shibor rates all declined, while the 1 - week Shibor rate increased. The weighted average interest rate of DR007 fell back to around 1.42%. The yields of treasury bond cash bonds varied. The yields of 1 - 7Y bonds changed by - 1.5 - 0.01bp, and the yields of 10Y and 30Y bonds changed by about - 0.8bp and 0.4bp respectively, reaching 1.78% and 2.13%. The spread between Chinese and US 10 - year treasury bond yields slightly widened, and the spread between Chinese and US 30 - year treasury bond yields slightly narrowed [72][76]. Central Bank Open Market Operations - This week, the central bank conducted 102.1 billion yuan in reverse repurchases in the open market, with 266.33 billion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net capital withdrawal of 164.23 billion yuan. The weighted average interest rate of DR007 fell back to around 1.42% [81]. Bond Issuance and Maturity - This week, the bond issuance was 29.9541 billion yuan, the total repayment was 28.6595 billion yuan, and the net financing was 1.2946 billion yuan [85]. Market Sentiment - The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.1048, with a cumulative increase of 7 basis points this week. The spread between the offshore and onshore RMB strengthened. The yield of 10 - year US treasury bonds oscillated, and the VIX index increased. The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds in China decreased, and the A - share risk premium slightly decreased [88][94][100]. 3.5 Market Outlook and Strategy - **Domestic Fundamentals**: During the "National Day" holiday, consumption grew steadily, with the average daily sales revenue of the consumer market increasing by 4.5% year - on - year. In September, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8, and the manufacturing sentiment slightly improved; the non - manufacturing PMI fell back to the critical point, and the overall production and business activities remained in the expansion range. Affected by the low base, the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size in August improved significantly, with a year - on - year increase of 21.5%, but the sustainability remains to be observed. Overall, the fundamentals are in a weak recovery rhythm, and although the manufacturing sentiment has improved marginally, it is still in the contraction range. - **Overseas**: The US government has been in a shutdown due to the repeated failure of the appropriation bill to pass, and many key economic data such as the non - farm payrolls for September have been postponed. The market lacks clear guidance in the short term. However, the US ADP employment unexpectedly decreased in September, far lower than the expected increase, and the employment market suddenly cooled down. The market has increased its bets on at least two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve before the end of 2025. - **Market Outlook**: The current bond market has a mix of bullish and bearish factors. It is expected that treasury bond futures will continue the pattern of weak oscillation in the short term. - **Strategy**: A band - trading approach is recommended for unilateral operations, and attention should be paid to the reverse - arbitrage opportunities after significant adjustments in long - term bonds [103].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market started with a positive performance, with all treasury bond futures closing higher. However, bond market sentiment is fragile, and the recovery of risk appetite suppresses the bond market. Meanwhile, the expectation of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the increase in global trade uncertainty add to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market oscillates between stable growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [1][3] - In terms of strategies, for the unilateral aspect, the repurchase rate has declined, and treasury bond futures prices are oscillating; for the arbitrage aspect, attention should be paid to the decline of the basis of the 2512 contract; for the hedging aspect, there is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) had a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 0.40% year - on - year change; China's PPI (monthly) had a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 2.90% year - on - year change [9] - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: The social financing scale was 433.66 trillion yuan, with an increase of 2.40 trillion yuan (0.56% month - on - month); M2 year - on - year was 8.80%, with a 0.00% month - on - month change; the manufacturing PMI was 49.80%, with a 0.40% (0.81% month - on - month) increase [9] - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index was 99.39, up 0.54 (0.55% day - on - day); the offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 7.1296, down 0.003 (- 0.04% day - on - day); SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.50, up 0.09 (6.41% day - on - day); DR007 was 1.51, up 0.07 (4.85% day - on - day); R007 was 1.53, up 0.02 (1.49% day - on - day); the 3 - month interbank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.58, up 0.05 (3.57% day - on - day); the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, up 0.00 (3.57% day - on - day) [9] II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Multiple figures are presented, including the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures, the price change rates of various treasury bond futures varieties, the precipitation funds trend of various treasury bond futures varieties, the position ratio of various treasury bond futures varieties, the net position ratio of the top 20 in various treasury bond futures varieties, the long - short position ratio of the top 20 in various treasury bond futures varieties, the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds, and the treasury bond issuance situation [13][16][19][22] III. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - Figures show the Shibor interest rate trend, the yield - to - maturity trend of interbank certificates of deposit (AAA), the trading statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the local government bond issuance situation [27] IV. Spread Overview - Figures display the inter - term spread trend of various treasury bond futures varieties and the term spread of spot bonds and cross - variety spreads of futures (4*TS - T, 2*TS - TF, 2*TF - T, 3*T - TL, 2*TS - 3*TF + T) [27][28][29] V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures include the implied interest rate and the treasury bond yield - to - maturity of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract [31][34][41] VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures show the implied interest rate and the treasury bond yield - to - maturity of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract [43][48] VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures present the implied yield and the treasury bond yield - to - maturity of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract [50][54][51] VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures include the implied yield and the treasury bond yield - to - maturity of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TL main contract [57][59][63]

Market Performance - Government bond futures closed higher across the board, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.46%, the 10-year main contract up by 0.15%, the 5-year main contract increasing by 0.07%, and the 2-year main contract gaining 0.02% [1] - The yields on major interbank bonds mostly declined, with the 10-year China Development Bank bond "25国开15" yield down by 0.45 basis points to 1.9585%, the 10-year government bond "25附息国债11" yield down by 0.9 basis points to 1.7740%, the 30-year government bond "25超长特别国债02" yield down by 0.8 basis points to 2.1220%, and the 7-year government bond "25附息国债07" yield down by 1.75 basis points to 1.70% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a fixed-rate, quantity tender operation of 612 billion yuan for a 7-day reverse repurchase agreement on October 9, with a bid amount of 612 billion yuan and a winning amount of 612 billion yuan [2] - On the same day, 2,063.3 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1,451.3 billion yuan [2] - The central bank also conducted its first buyout reverse repurchase operation in October, with a fixed quantity and interest rate tender for 1,100 billion yuan for a 3-month term (91 days) [2] - The funding conditions in the interbank market were relatively loose after the long holiday, with overnight repurchase rates for deposit institutions dropping by about 6 basis points to around 1.32% [2] Operational Recommendations - The economic indicators for September showed signs of recovery during the peak season, but structural supply-demand contradictions remain, with slow domestic demand recovery being a constraint [3] - The current monetary policy focuses on execution, and if the third-quarter GDP is weaker than expected, there may be a possibility of policy easing [3] - The bond market is expected to be influenced by fund redemption fee regulations and changes in market risk appetite, with potential policy expectations driving stock market performance until mid-October [3] - The current loose funding conditions and the normalization of the long-short interest rate spread may limit the extent of long bond declines, with a potential increase in allocation value if the 10-year government bond yield rises above 1.8% [3] - Short-term treasury bonds are expected to continue fluctuating within a range, with T2512's fluctuation range likely between 107.4 and 108.3, suggesting a wait-and-see approach for adjustment opportunities [3]