Core Viewpoint - The central bank's "loose monetary" signal is becoming clearer, and the liquidity remains balanced and loose. The issuance of special government bonds has begun, and the issuance of special bonds is accelerating, leading to increased government debt supply pressure in May [2][5] Group 1: Changes in Central Bank Attitude and Liquidity - In April, funding rates decreased, aligning closer to policy rates, with R007 and DR007 average monthly rates down by 19 basis points and 15.4 basis points to 1.77% and 1.72% respectively [6][7] - The central bank shifted from net absorption to net injection in mid-April, releasing supportive signals, with a net injection of 500 billion yuan through MLF in late April [7][10] - The 10-year government bond yield fell by 18.9 basis points to 1.62% by the end of April, reflecting a strong bond market amid rising expectations for loose monetary policy [10][19] Group 2: Government Debt Supply Pressure - In May, the issuance of ordinary government bonds is expected to reach 1.12 trillion yuan, with special long-term bonds at 227 billion yuan, totaling approximately 1.34 trillion yuan in government bonds, with a net financing scale of around 763 billion yuan [3][20] - Local government debt issuance is projected at 840 billion yuan in May, with a net financing scale of about 620 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase in government debt supply [26] Group 3: Maintaining Loose Liquidity - The liquidity gap in May is estimated to be around 490 billion yuan, indicating increased pressure compared to April, primarily due to the significant rise in government debt net financing [4][36] - The central bank's proactive stance is evident with a slight increase in MLF maturity to 125 billion yuan and a decrease in reverse repo maturity to 900 billion yuan, suggesting a potential for maintaining balanced liquidity [4][36] - Historical trends indicate that May typically sees net fiscal spending, with an expected fiscal deficit of approximately 830 billion yuan, further influencing liquidity dynamics [28]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 1.2 trillion yuan on April 30, 2025, using a fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multiple price bidding method [1][6] - The operation included 700 billion yuan for a 3-month term and 500 billion yuan for a 6-month term [5] - Additionally, the PBOC carried out a reverse repurchase operation of 530.8 billion yuan with a fixed interest rate of 1.5% on the same day [6][11] Group 2 - The PBOC did not conduct any public market treasury bond transactions in April 2025 [12] - The liquidity in the market showed mixed trends, with the overnight Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) decreasing by 6.2 basis points to 1.541%, while the 7-day Shibor increased by 2.5 basis points to 1.748% [15] - Analysts predict a relatively large liquidity gap in May, but expect the PBOC to maintain a supportive stance on liquidity, keeping interest rates loose [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - As the focus of monetary policy shifts from "stabilizing the exchange rate and preventing idle circulation" in Q1 to "stabilizing growth" since the start of the trade - war, the capital market re - balances. The capital market in April was generally balanced and loose, with capital interest rates moving closer to the 7D OMO policy rate. It is expected to cross the month smoothly [2][6]. - There may be a certain gap in the medium - and long - term liquidity of banks. The government bond supply in May is the biggest factor affecting the capital market, with an estimated net financing scale between 1.44 - 2.19 trillion yuan. The pressure on the bank's liability side and the accelerated supply of government bonds in May indicate the need for the central bank to provide liquidity support, especially medium - and long - term support. The order of loose monetary policy remains "reserve requirement ratio cut + structural monetary policy tools first, interest rate cut later" [2][7][8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Current Situation and Future Concerns - In April, the capital market was balanced and loose, with DR001 dropping from around 1.8% to around 1.6%, and the DR007 - R007 spread remaining within 10bp and even within 5bp from the middle of the month. It is expected to cross the month smoothly [6]. - In April, the net lending balance fluctuated around 3 trillion yuan, a historically low level, and the decline of certificate of deposit (CD) interest rates faced resistance after mid - April, indicating a possible gap in medium - and long - term bank liquidity. The government plans to use 5 trillion yuan in investment funds this year, with the ultra - long - term special treasury bonds starting issuance on April 24 and 7 more issues to be issued from May to June. As of April, 1.19 trillion yuan of new local government special bonds have been issued [7]. - The government bond supply in May is the biggest factor affecting the capital market, with an estimated net financing scale between 1.44 - 2.19 trillion yuan. The bank's liability side pressure and the accelerated supply of government bonds in May require the central bank to provide liquidity support. The mid - and long - term liquidity roll - over pressure in May has significantly decreased compared to April. If the "timely reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut" is implemented in May, it is expected to drive down the capital interest rate center [8][11]. 3.2 Money Market Interest Rate Tracking - From April 21 to April 25, the central bank conducted 600 billion yuan of MLF operations, with a net injection of 500 billion yuan for medium - and long - term liquidity support. The capital market became loose after being balanced. DR001 dropped from 1.72% to 1.58%, R001 from 1.74% to 1.58%, DR007 from 1.71% to 1.64%, and R007 from 1.73% to 1.66%. The spread between R007 and DR007 remained within 5bp [12]. - From April 21 to April 25, the bank's capital lending scale increased slightly, with the daily net lending balance of state - owned and joint - stock banks rising from 2.81 trillion yuan to 3.27 trillion yuan, and that of money market funds decreasing from 2.13 trillion yuan to 1.93 trillion yuan [18]. - From April 21 to April 25, the bill interest rate changed little, with the 3M state - owned and joint - stock discount rate fluctuating slightly around 1%, and the six - month state - owned and joint - stock transfer discount rate rising from 1.04% to 1.09% [22]. 3.3 Open Market Operation Tracking - As of April 27, the central bank's open market operation balance was 10.3 trillion yuan, including 97.2 billion yuan in pledged repurchase balance, 5.1 trillion yuan in outright repurchase balance, and 4.657 trillion yuan in MLF balance. From April 21 to April 27, the central bank's open market operations had a net injection of 86.4 billion yuan. From April 28 to April 30, 50.45 billion yuan of repurchase agreements matured [28]. 3.4 Government Bond Tracking 3.4.1 Government Bond Issuance - From April 21 to April 25, 326 billion yuan of treasury bonds were issued, with a net financing of - 181.83 billion yuan; 191.123 billion yuan of local bonds were issued, including 75.066 billion yuan of new local bonds and 116.056 billion yuan of refinancing local bonds, with a net financing of 162.512 billion yuan. It is estimated that from April 28 to April 30, no treasury bonds will be issued, and 93.092 billion yuan of local bonds will be issued, with a net financing of 92.665 billion yuan [35]. 3.4.2 Government Bond Payment - From April 21 to April 25, the net payment of government bonds was - 80.13 billion yuan, including - 131.83 billion yuan for treasury bonds and 51.7 billion yuan for local bonds. It is estimated that from April 28 to April 30, the net payment of government bonds will be 121.08 billion yuan, all for local bonds [42]. 3.5 Certificate of Deposit (CD) Tracking 3.5.1 Primary Market of CDs - From April 21 to April 25, 749.6 billion yuan of CDs were issued, a month - on - month increase of 40 billion yuan; the net financing was - 19.7 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 16.2 billion yuan. From April 28 to April 30, 331.6 billion yuan of CDs matured, with significantly reduced maturity pressure. State - owned banks had the highest issuance scale. In terms of maturity types, 3M CDs had the highest issuance scale. The overall issuance success rate was 95%, with state - owned banks having the highest success rate of 99%, and 3M, 6M, and 1Y CDs having a success rate of 95% [45]. - In terms of issuance interest rates, from April 21 to April 25, the issuance interest rates of CDs of various types of banks and different maturities basically remained at the previous week's level (changes within 1bp) [46]. 3.5.2 Secondary Market of CDs - From April 21 to April 25, although the capital market became loose after being balanced, the primary market of CDs still needed to raise prices to attract demand, indicating a medium - and long - term liquidity gap in banks. The yields of CDs of various maturities in the secondary market changed little, with a change range of no more than 1bp. The CD yield curve showed a local inversion of 1bp at 9M and 1Y [66]. 3.6 Excess Reserve Ratio Tracking - The excess reserve ratio in late March 2025 was estimated to be 1.05%. From April 21 to April 27, the central bank's open market net injection was 86.4 billion yuan, and the net payment of government bonds was - 80.13 billion yuan, increasing the excess reserve scale by 94.413 billion yuan [73].

国新办举行新闻发布会，介绍稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展政策措施有关情况。央行副行长邹澜表示， 将根据国内外经济形势和金融市场运行情况，适时降准降息，保持流动性充裕，发挥好货币政策工具箱 总量和结构双重功能，创设新的结构性货币政策工具，围绕稳就业、稳增长的重点领域精准发力，做好 金融支持。还在研究丰富政策工具箱，将适时推出增量政策，助力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期。 【操作建议】 【资金面】 央行公告称，4月28日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了2790亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.50%， 投标量2790亿元，中标量2790亿元。当日1760亿元逆回购到期，据此算，单日净投放1030亿元。资金面 方面，存款类机构隔夜和七天质押式回购利率一降一升，前者下行近2个bp，后者因跨月原因上行超3个 bp。长期资金方面，全国和主要股份制银行一年期同业存单最新成交在1.78%附近，较上日略有上行。 央行在上周进行了超预期规模的MLF续做后，近两日公开市场也维持稳步净投放，资金面预期跨月平 稳。 【政策面】 【市场表现】 国债期货收盘多数上涨，30年期主力合约涨0.30%报120.180元，10年期主力合约涨0.03%报 ...

新华财经北京4月28日电（王春霞）人民银行28日进行了2790亿元逆回购操作，中标利率为1.5%。当日公开市场有1760亿元逆回购到期，净投放1030亿元。 上海银行间同业拆放利率（Shibor）短期品种涨跌互现。具体来看，隔夜Shibor下跌0.30BP，报1.6030%；7天Shibor上涨8.20BP，报1.7230%；14天Shibor下 跌0.10BP，报1.7690%。 上海银行间同业拆放利率（4月28日） | | | | CULD | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期限 | Shibor(%) | 涨跌(BP) | | 中 | O/N | 1.6030 | 0.30 | | 1 | 1W | 1.7230 | 8.20 | | 0 | 2W | 1.7690 | 0.10 | | 中 | 1M | 1.7470 | 0.10 | | 1 | 3M | 1.7500 | 0.00 | | 中 | 6M | 1.7600 | 0.00 | | 11 | 9M | 1.7670 | 0.10 | | | 1Y | 1.7680 | 0.10 | 来源：全国银行间同业拆借中 ...

证券研究报告 流动性跟踪周报（2025.4.21-4.27） 华泰研究 2025 年 4 月 28 日│中国内地 流动性周报 资金面边际转松，资金利率下行 上周公开市场到期 8080 亿元，均为逆回购到期，公开市场投放 15820 亿元， 其中逆回购投放 8820 亿元，MLF 投放 6000 亿元，国库现金定存投放 1000 亿元，合计净投放 7740 亿元。资金面边际转松，DR007 均值为 1.68%， 较前一周下行 2BP，R007 均值为 1.72%，较前一周下行 1BP，DR001 和 R001 均值分别为 1.65%和 1.67%。交易所回购利率整体上行，GC007 均 值为 1.77%，较前一周上行 4BP。截至上周最后一个交易日，逆回购未到 期余额为 8820 亿元，较前一周上行。 存单和 IRS 收益率上行 上周存单合计到期 7906.4 亿元，发行 9782.4 亿元，净融资规模 1876 亿元。 截至上周最后一个交易日，存单到期收益率（1 年期 AAA）为 1.76%，较 前一周上行。本周存单单周到期规模在 3353.1 亿元左右，到期压力较前一 周减小。利率互换方面，上周 1 年期 ...

最近管理层动作有多猛？降准降息预期、设备更新贷款贴息、科技产业扶持政策三连击，这就好比给市场装了涡轮增压。看看估值，沪深300市盈率才13 倍，红利指数股息率6.35%，这放在全球资本市场都是白菜价。 各位老铁周日好，这里是帮主郑重的盘前策略时间。干了20年财经记者，见过太多人五一前手忙脚乱割肉，节后拍大腿；也见过聪明人提前布局，假期躺着 吃肉。今天这篇，我就用最接地气的方式，拆解持股持币的底层逻辑——帮主郑重今天掏的不是攻略，是能让你账户曲线逆势飞扬的密码！ 第一招：看政策底——国家队的钱袋子已经掏出来了 但别被短期波动忽悠！4月7日全球暴跌那晚，中央汇金直接下场增持央企，单日买入超200亿。这操作就像暴雨中撑伞——市场越冷，国家队越暖。记住帮 主口诀：政策底出现时，优质资产就是硬通货。 第二招：盯资金面——聪明钱正在悄悄抄底 节前市场有个魔咒：资金会提前撤退避险。但今年不一样！4月25日单日股票ETF净流入9.49亿，连续三天抄底半导体、AI算力。这说明什么？机构资金根 本不慌，反而趁机囤积弹药。 具体怎么看？盯住两个指标： 1. 北向资金：连续3天净流入超50亿，说明外资看好节后行情； 2. 融资余额： ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report predicts a 385.3 billion yuan liquidity gap in May 2025, mainly due to a significant month - on - month increase in government debt net financing. Despite the large gap, considering the central bank's positive attitude towards maintaining the money market, the money market interest rate is expected to remain loose in May. The DR007 central rate is expected to decline, driving down short - term bond yields [6][21][26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 5 - Month Liquidity Gap Prediction Analysis - **Factor 1: Government Debt Issuance and Fund Allocation** - In May, the net financing scale of government debt is expected to increase significantly compared to April, with a potential impact on the money market. The estimated net financing scale of national debt in May is 609.3 billion yuan, a 343.6 - billion - yuan increase from April, and the proportion of ultra - long national debt issuance may rise. The estimated new local debt in May is 516.7 billion yuan, a 263.3 - billion - yuan increase from April. The total government debt supply scale in May may reach 1.13 trillion yuan, a 606.9 - billion - yuan increase from April [8][10]. - **Factor 2: Regular Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure** - Historically, May is usually a month of fiscal net expenditure, but the scale is small. Excluding the impact of "tax refund for excess input VAT" in 2022, the average net fiscal expenditure from 2020 - 2021 and 2023 - 2024 was 11.57 billion yuan, which is used to estimate the fiscal net income in May 2025 and will supplement the money market [14]. - **Factor 3: Credit Delivery** - May is not a peak month for credit delivery, so the impact on liquidity consumption is small. Given the improvement in credit delivery indicated by the increase in the six - month national and joint - stock bank bill transfer discount rate in late April and the high year - on - year growth rate of "deposits subject to reserve requirements" in March 2025, it is assumed that the growth rate will drop to 6.5% in May, and the required reserve for deposits will increase by 7.22 billion yuan, supplementing the corresponding liquidity [17][18]. - **Factor 4: Changes in M0 and Foreign Exchange Holdings** - After the May Day holiday, residents' cash flows back to the banking system, and historically, the M0 scale in May usually decreases month - on - month, supplementing 9.76 billion yuan of liquidity. The change in foreign exchange holdings in May is assumed to be the average of the previous three months, with a potential consumption of 6.39 billion yuan of liquidity [20]. - **Summary** - After comprehensive calculation of the above four factors, there is expected to be a 385.3 - billion - yuan liquidity gap in May 2025, mainly due to the significant month - on - month increase in government debt net financing [21]. Outlook on Short - Term Bonds - The central bank's positive attitude towards maintaining the money market can be observed from two aspects: the decline in the money market interest rate near the end of April, indicating low cross - month pressure; and the 50 - billion - yuan net MLF injection in April, a significant increase from before. - The Politburo meeting on April 25 proposed "timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts" and other measures. It is expected that monetary policy will cooperate, the money market will remain loose, the DR007 central rate will decline, and short - term bond yields will follow suit [22][24][26].

Monetary Policy and Market Liquidity - The central bank conducted a net liquidity injection of 674 billion CNY this week, with a significant 600 billion CNY MLF operation on Friday, marking a net MLF injection of 500 billion CNY for April, the highest since 2024[2][6]. - The average daily transaction volume of pledged repos increased by 0.01 trillion CNY to 6.34 trillion CNY, indicating a recovery in market activity[14]. Interest Rate Trends - The DR007 rate fell to 1.64%, the lowest since mid-January, reflecting stable liquidity conditions despite the central bank's shift to net absorption in the latter half of the week[6][21]. - The expectation for interest rate cuts has diminished, with the market showing a muted response to the political bureau's reiteration of "timely cuts" in monetary policy[21][22]. Government Debt Issuance - In April, the total issuance of government bonds reached 2.16 trillion CNY, with a net financing scale of 793.8 billion CNY, a decrease of approximately 680 billion CNY compared to March[29]. - The upcoming week will see a net repayment of government debt increasing from -130.1 billion CNY to 121.1 billion CNY, indicating a shift in cash flow dynamics[23][25]. Institutional Behavior - The net financing from banks returned above 3 trillion CNY, reflecting the central bank's commitment to maintaining stable liquidity, although there is no intention to significantly lower funding costs in the short term[21][22]. - The cross-month progress of various institutions reached 37.7%, the highest level in five years, influenced by the unique trading calendar of April[18].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the external environment is severe, leading to a balanced and slightly loose funding situation, with expectations of a slight decline in market interest rates in April [3][5][87] - In March, the central bank increased liquidity, resulting in a slight easing of the funding environment, with average interbank and exchange repo rates mostly declining [3][12][55] - The average overnight transaction volume in the interbank market increased compared to the previous month, while the exchange's overnight transaction volume decreased [42][49] Group 2 - Key indicators in the overseas currency market show that the Federal Reserve paused interest rate cuts in March, and short-term U.S. Treasury rates remained stable [7][9] - Domestic monetary market indicators reveal a slight easing in March, with average repo rates declining, while fiscal deposits increased significantly [5][11] - The report predicts that fiscal deposits will continue to rise in April, with a slight decrease in the excess reserve ratio expected [56][66][81] Group 3 - The report highlights that the average yield on short-term bonds increased in March, with specific changes in yields for various types of bonds [13][32] - The average annualized yield of money market funds decreased slightly in March, indicating a trend of declining yields [37][41] - The report notes that the central bank may use monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts to counter external pressures [76][87]