摩根士丹利乐观，认为美元走弱、ETF买盘、央行增持和避险需求会把金价往上推，这种观点逻辑上没有错，但有点像给干旱季节里的种子打保温针，可能 会发芽，也可能被下一场风吹散，金融市场不是历史课本，预期会变化，利率路径会变化，地缘政治会变化，任何单一要素都不足以撑起长期趋势。 而哈塞特那句"我相信鲍威尔也认同一点——我们可能应该继续降低利率"更像一句暗示，既肯定了降息方向，又留下了退路，言下之意是政策要看数据，但 也要照顾预期，这不是经济学的纯粹，是政治与市场共同编织的现实，这种半公开的谋合，让市场每一个风吹草动都放大了。 地缘政治呢，不是不存在，而是在不同时间点发挥不同作用，泽连斯基要去伦敦拉援助，俄罗斯又宣布禁止黄金金条出口将于2026年生效，这两个消息并列 放在一起，像两只老虎在笼子里打架，各自的吼声都能震动市场，但并不意味着市场会持续转向避险，避险只是情绪的通道，资金才是决定性的搬运工，资 金一旦决定离场，金银也会被拉着走。 回到现在，短线的急跌说明了两件事，第一，市场的杠杆在动，第二，信息的节律被放大，交易员在用更细的尺子量任何措辞、任何评论、任何时间点的新 闻，都会成为放大器，市场因此更像一面敏感的铜镜 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas markets focus on the Fed's policy trends and the expected appointment of the next Fed Chair. The market anticipates more aggressive rate cuts if Hassett is elected, but there is uncertainty due to Powell's term, economic factors, and inflation. Asset prices will show structural differentiation. Domestically, the economy shows marginal improvement, but the foundation for growth is not yet solid, and attention should be paid to the pace of policy implementation [2]. - The Fed's rate cut and bond - buying are interpreted as "QE - like" measures, which are negative for the US dollar index. The RMB exchange rate is affected by US economic data, the appointment of the next Fed Chair, and domestic economic policies. Seasonal settlement effects may support the RMB's appreciation [4]. - The current inflation data supports low interest rates, and the bond market has rebounded. Although there are rumors of mortgage subsidy policies, the bond market reaction is limited. The medium - term bond market still has room for growth [5]. - The container shipping market on the European route has a mix of long and short factors. There is a possibility of price cuts in late December, and the price of the 02 contract may be pushed up due to the shipping companies' price - holding intentions [6][7]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, platinum and palladium are expected to have their price centers lifted in the medium and long term, while copper prices will be mainly driven by fundamentals after the Fed's rate cut. Aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong in the long term, while alumina is expected to be weak. Zinc will maintain a high - level shock, tin will be in a wide - range shock, and lithium carbonate will have a short - term callback pressure [11][13][15]. - In the energy and chemical market, oil prices are affected by the US - Venezuela tension and the Fed's rate cut. LPG will maintain a shock, PTA - PX will follow the weakening of demand and commodity sentiment, MEG - bottle chips will face a decline in terminal demand, and urea will be in a range between fundamentals and policies [34][37][40]. - In the agricultural products market, the supply and demand of live pigs in the peak season need to be verified, the oilseeds market is in a positive spread, the oil market will continue to be sorted, cotton prices may have room to rise, sugar prices will remain weak, egg prices have a long - term over - capacity problem, apple prices will remain strong, and jujube prices will be in a low - level shock [73][74][76]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and the market focuses on the appointment of the next Fed Chair. China's November CPI rose year - on - year, and the real estate sector had a significant rise in the afternoon session [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the Fed's rate cut and bond - buying are negative for the US dollar index. Attention should be paid to US economic data and domestic economic policies [3][4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market rebounded, and the current inflation data supports low interest rates. The medium - term bond market still has room for growth [5]. - **Container Shipping on the European Route**: The market has a mix of long and short factors, and there is a possibility of price cuts in late December [6][7]. Commodities Non - Ferrous Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: Prices oscillated and corrected. The Fed's rate cut and bond - buying are factors, and in the medium and long term, the price centers are expected to be lifted [11]. - **Gold and Silver**: The market generally rose, and in the short term, it is expected to be in shock, while in the long term, it is expected to rise [12][13]. - **Copper**: Prices were strongly sorted, and after the Fed's rate cut, they were mainly driven by fundamentals [14][15]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong in the long term, alumina is expected to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and strong [15][16]. - **Zinc**: Prices maintained a high - level shock [17][18]. - **Tin**: Prices were affected by the conflict in Congo (Kinshasa) and are expected to be in a wide - range shock [18][19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There is short - term callback pressure, but in the long term, it has the value of bottom - fishing allocation [21]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The fundamentals have not improved, and the prices are expected to be weak [22][23]. - **Lead**: Prices are expected to be in shock, with support at the bottom [24]. Steel - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Prices rebounded slightly, and the overall market is expected to be in a range shock, with the rebar in the range of 3000 - 3300 and the hot - rolled coil in the range of 3200 - 3500 [25][26]. - **Iron Ore**: Prices were affected by real - estate news, and the downward space is expected to be limited [27][28]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The second - round price cut has started, and coking coal prices are under pressure in the short term, while coke may face inventory accumulation pressure [29][30][31]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: Demand is gradually weakening, and prices are expected to be weakly shocked [32]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Prices were lifted due to the US - Venezuela tension, and the Fed's rate cut has a limited impact on prices [34][35][36]. - **LPG**: Prices maintained a shock, with a relatively stable supply and demand situation [37][38][39]. - **PTA - PX**: Prices followed the weakening of demand and commodity sentiment, and the supply - demand structure is relatively good in the energy and chemical sector [40][41][42]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: Terminal demand declined comprehensively, and supply - side negative feedback began to appear. Prices are expected to be short - term in shock and long - term in a downward trend [43][44][46]. - **Urea**: Transactions weakened, and prices are expected to be in a range shock [47][48]. - **PP**: The spot market's pessimistic sentiment dragged down prices, and further short - selling is not recommended [49][50][51]. - **PE**: The supply - increase and demand - decrease pattern continued, and prices are expected to maintain a bottom - level shock [52][53][54]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Prices were weakly shocked, with different supply - demand situations for pure benzene and styrene [55][56]. - **Fuel Oil**: Prices were in a narrow - range shock, with a stable supply and a mixed demand situation [57]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The cracking spread was low, and the fundamentals have improved, but it is recommended to wait and see [58]. - **Asphalt**: Prices fluctuated in a narrow range, and attention should be paid to the winter - storage policy [59][60]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices rebounded due to weather disturbances and geopolitical conflicts, and are expected to be in a range shock [61][62]. - **Soda Ash and Caustic Soda**: Soda ash prices are under pressure due to over - supply expectations; glass prices are affected by cold - repair expectations and inventory levels; caustic soda prices are expected to be weakly shocked [65][66][67]. - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: Pulp futures prices reached a four - month high, and both pulp and offset paper are recommended to wait and see [67][68]. - **Log**: Newly registered warehouse receipts suppressed the price, and it is recommended to participate with caution [69][70]. - **Propylene**: Prices were weakly shocked, with a relatively loose supply - demand situation [71][72]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The supply and demand in the peak season need to be verified, and the long - term trend can be bullish, but the short - term is mainly based on fundamentals [73]. - **Oilseeds**: The positive spread continued, and the market is affected by import and domestic supply - demand situations [74][75]. - **Oils**: The MPOB report was negative, and prices are expected to continue to be sorted [76]. - **Cotton**: Prices broke through the pressure level, and if they hold steady, there may be further upward space [77]. - **Sugar**: Prices remained weak [78][79]. - **Eggs**: The long - term egg - laying hen capacity is still in excess, and short - term rebounds can be lightly speculated [80]. - **Apples**: The near - month contract was strong, and the overall market remained strong [81][82]. - **Jujubes**: Prices were in a low - level shock, and the short - term downward space may be limited [83][84].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-11 几内亚GIC矿预期复产在即 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价21770元/吨，较上一交易日变化-110元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-90元/吨， 较上一交易日变化0元/吨；中原A00铝价21660元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化30元/吨至-200元/吨；佛山 A00铝价录21670元/吨，较上一交易日变化-100元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化10元/吨至-190元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-12-10日沪铝主力合约开于21805元/吨，收于21935元/吨，较上一交易日变化-55元/吨，最 高价达22025元/吨，最低价达到21735元/吨。全天交易日成交159863手，全天交易日持仓185806手。 库存方面，截止2025-12-10，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存59.5万吨，较上一期变化-0.1万吨，仓单库存68587 吨，较上一交易日变化724吨，LME铝库存520800吨，较上一交易日变化-2500吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-12-10SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2790元/吨，山东价格录得2740元/吨，河南价格录得 2820 ...

交易员最近普遍押注美联储会在这次FOMC会议上降息，市场对降息的期待在升温，但与此有消息说到2026年底前的降息空间可能不足75个基点，这让人又 开始琢磨到底能降多少； | 道琼斯工业平均 | DJIA 纳斯达克 | IXIC 标普500 | SPX | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 47739.32 | -215.67 23545.90 | -32.22 6846.51 | -23.89 -0.35% | | 4828805 | | | | CME"美联储观察"给出的概率显示，12月降息25个基点的概率高达89.4%，维持不变的概率仅10.6%，而到明年1月累计降25个基点的概率为68.5%，累计降 50个基点的概率为23.8%，这些数字成了市场短线波动的重要参照； 与此纳斯达克中国金龙指数微涨0.08%，热门中概股涨跌互现，百度和名创优品领涨，小鹏、网易等表现各异，投资者情绪出现分化； COMEX黄金期货在当天收盘下跌0.54%，报4219.9美元每盎司，黄金短线走低，显然对降息预期和股市反应做出即时调整； 美国劳工统计局方面则宣布，10月份的生产者价格指数不会单独公布，而是与1 ...

这轮金价的波动，核心驱动力离不开美联储的政策动向。 现在市场上最关注的，就是美联储下周即将召开的议息会议。 根据芝商所FedWatch工具的数 据，目前市场预计12月降息25个基点的概率已经高达86.2%，这种强烈的降息预期直接推动了此前金价的持续走高。 金价真的是一夜变天，12月9日报价，黄金市场可能迎来更大变盘。 市场情绪就像坐过山车，前阵子还在接连刷新高位，转眼就出现震荡调整。 12月8 日的报价透出微妙信号，伦敦金现报4201.93美元/盎司，微涨0.03%；国内黄金T D报950.91元/克，小幅下跌0.26%，而周大福、周大生等金店的足金价格 仍稳稳站在1328元/克的高位。 看似涨跌互现的背后，实则是多重力量的激烈博弈。 随着12月9日市场开启新的交易时段，一场更大规模的变盘可能正在酝酿。 中国、土耳其等国一直在持续加仓，核心目的就是通过配置黄金来实现"去美元化"，筑牢外汇储备的安全垫。 这种官方层面的大规模、持续性购金，就 像给金价装上了"压舱石"，即便短期出现波动，也很难出现大幅跳水的情况。 同时，全球的避险需求也在为金价提供支撑。 现在地缘政治冲突还在持续，贸易摩擦的风险也没有完全消除，再 ...

分析师Anna Wong表示："我的评估是政策声明和更新后的预测总体基调偏向鸽派——尽管也存在一些 鹰派的潜在信息。在鸽派方面，委员会大幅上调了增长轨迹，同时下调了通胀前景，并保持了'点阵 图'不变。联邦公开市场委员会还宣布开始进行准备金管理购买。另一方面，政策声明中的一个信号表 明委员会倾向于长期暂停降息。"她继续指出："尽管'点阵图'显示2026年仅降息一次——而市场预期是 两次——我们的观点是美联储明年最终将降息100个基点。这是因为我们预计薪资增长疲软，并且目前 看不到2026年上半年通胀重燃的明显迹象。" 来源：滚动播报 ...

钛媒体App 12月10日消息，债券交易员押注美联储未来一年的降息幅度将更为温和，这反映出全球范围 内押注主要央行将放缓或停止货币宽松政策的趋势。期货和期权交易数据显示，除周三预期中的25个基 点降息外，交易员目前预计美联储在2026年总降息幅度为50个基点。这与一周前的预期形成突然转向， 当时利率互换市场还定价明年将降息近三次。（广角观察） ...

来源：市场资讯 12月10日，贵金属价格今日稳步走高，投资者在本月FOMC会议后即将公布的货币政策决议前主动调整 仓位。NCE平台认为，市场当前的关注核心在于美联储即将发布的政策信号以及会后新闻发布会对2025 年政策路径的指引。随着交易时点临近，市场情绪呈现出明显的前瞻博弈特征，使金银价格维持温和升 势。 高概率降息预期主导市场 并非所有机构都认可贵金属持续走强的逻辑。部分分析师认为，若明年的宽松节奏放缓，贵金属可能面 临阶段性压力。近期衍生品市场对2025年的降息预期已从三次下调至两次，反映市场对进一步宽松的谨 慎态度。若通胀粘性高于预期或经济韧性超出假设，政策可能更趋克制，从而限制贵金属的上行空间。 不过当前金价走势显示，市场定价显然已包含利率之外的多重结构性因素。 期货定价工具显示，本周出现25个基点降息的概率接近确定性，这一点与NCE平台监测到的机构预期方 向基本一致。根据市场数据，当前降息概率约为87%，表明整体共识偏向温和宽松，同时仍保留"鸽中 带鹰"的可能性，即若政策沟通暗示2025年初存在暂停节奏，短期宽松路径可能被重新定价。NCE平台 表示，这种结构性的概率分布也推动了贵金属的前置上涨。 ...

文 |姑苏九歌 编辑 |姑苏九歌 12月5号这天，美股投资者估计比高考查分还紧张，推迟了一个多月的9月PCE数据终于要公布了。 要知道，这数据原该10月底就出来，结果美国政府一停摆，硬生生拖到现在，成了悬在市场头顶的"薛 定谔的猫"。 现在的美股有意思了，11月刚经历过一阵暴跌，转头又蹭蹭往历史高点冲，跟坐过山车似的。 这背后全靠一个信念撑着，美联储要降息了。 可经济信号又拧巴得很，一边通胀还没完全老实，另一边就业市场又开始冒凉风，搞得大家心里七上八 下。 之前8月核心PCE同比涨2.7%，已经连续55个月高于2%的目标，这次9月数据要是再不听话，之前的乐 观估计得打水漂。 市场提前狂欢，降息预期下的美股"蹦迪"时刻 要说最近的市场情绪，那真是把"预期先行"四个字玩明白了。 CMEFedWatch那个工具显示，现在赌12月降息的人，恨不得排到法国去，概率高得吓人。 就因为这股劲儿，美元指数连着跌了四周，亚洲欧洲的股指期货也跟着沾光，每天开盘跟打了鸡血似 的。 这波上涨多少有点"透支"的意思，大家生怕错过行情，得了"踏空焦虑症"，不管三七二十一先买了再 说。 行为金融学里管这叫FOMO情绪，翻译过来就是"怕错过 ...

乌克兰局势仍未出现降温迹象，泽连斯基再度表态拒绝任何领土交换方案，使避险需求维持在黄金上 方，为价格在事件公布前提供稳定支撑。 短线来看，XAU/USD仍在既有区间内运行。 上方阻力集中在4245至4250美元区间。一旦突破，该结构有望推动价格进一步指向4277至4280美元，并 测试4300美元一线。 周三欧洲早盘，黄金继续在高位下方区间运行。美元短线承压，加上避险情绪维持温和，使金价得到一 定支撑，但多头缺乏进一步突破的动能。随着为期两天的美联储会议将在今日凌晨公布结果，交易端情 绪明显趋向保守，市场普遍将最新经济预测、未来政策路径暗示以及鲍威尔的讲话视为本周方向的核心 线索。 围绕下一任美联储主席的内部讨论意外升温。据《华尔街日报》报道，特朗普将在数日内与候选人进行 最终面谈，前理事凯文·沃什与国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特均在名单之列。由于哈塞特与白宫政策 立场一致，其被视为更有可能获提名。一些机构提醒，如果市场认为政策独立性可能受影响，美联储或 选择在本次会议中呈现更偏鹰的沟通，以巩固公信力。 欧洲盘中，金价仍维持在周线高位下方整理。此前虽然自低位出现反弹，但上行空间受限，整体走势符 合重大事件前的 ...