Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term safe - haven situation shows that trade - war related safe - haven demand has subsided, while geopolitical risks have increased. The weakening US employment and moderate inflation still support the expectation of interest rate cuts. - Geopolitical risks have risen with the Trump administration discussing the acquisition of Greenland and the US arresting Maduro. - Although the US economic growth in the third quarter exceeded expectations, consumer confidence dropped to the lowest level since April. The US November core CPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year, the slowest growth since early 2021, lower than the market expectation of 3%. The November employment rebounded more than expected, but the unemployment rate rose to a four - year high. The Fed cut interest rates in December with differences, hinting at a pause and only one possible rate cut next year. The market expects an 80% probability that the Fed will not cut rates in January 2026, and the next possible rate cut may be in April. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are oscillating weakly. - Silver is supported by tight supply. The expected demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen energy industry is strong. Palladium has short - term demand resilience but faces long - term structural pressure in the fuel - vehicle market. The CRB commodity index is oscillating weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. - It is expected that precious metals will be oscillating strongly in the short term, oscillating at a high level in the medium term, and rising step - by - step in the long term. [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Gold - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. - Price data: Comex gold active contract closed at $4505.70 per ounce, up 1.03% from the previous day and 3.57% from last week; London gold closed at $4490.35 per ounce, up 0.76% from the previous day and 3.53% from last week; Shanghai gold futures main contract closed at 998.90 yuan per gram, down 0.60% from the previous day and 0.82% from last week; Gold T + D closed at 1001.92 yuan per gram, unchanged from the previous day and down 0.30% from last week. - Other data: The long - short positions of the top 10 futures company members in SHFE's gold futures are presented in detail, including net long and net short positions and their changes. [2][3] 2. Silver - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. - Price data: Comex silver active contract closed at $81.22 per ounce, up 6.16% from the previous day and 13.37% from last week; London silver closed at $78.48 per ounce, up 4.54% from the previous day and 5.15% from last week; Shanghai silver futures main contract closed at 19290 yuan per kilogram, down 0.83% from the previous day and up 5.98% from last week; Silver T + D closed at 19495 yuan per kilogram, unchanged from the previous day and up 3.71% from last week. - Other data: The long - short positions of the top 10 futures company members in SHFE's silver futures are shown, including net long and net short positions and their changes. [4][5] 3. Platinum - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. - Price data: NYMEX platinum active contract closed at $2272.90 per ounce, down 2.03% from the previous day and up 17.68% from last week; London platinum closed at $2208 per ounce, unchanged from the previous day and up 15.84% from last week; Platinum futures main contract in GZFE closed at 686.95 yuan per gram, up 4.46% from the previous day and 26.60% from last week; Platinum in SGE closed at 591.25 yuan per gram, down 2.59% from the previous day and 15.56% from last week. - Other data: The long - short positions of the top 10 futures company members in GZFE's platinum futures are provided, including net long and net short positions and their changes. [6][7][9] 4. Palladium - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. - Price data: NYMEX palladium active contract closed at $1821 per ounce, down 7.28% from the previous day and up 5.57% from last week; London palladium closed at $1837 per ounce, up 10.56% from the previous day and 11.81% from last week; Palladium futures main contract in GZFE closed at 529.05 yuan per gram, down 8.54% from the previous day and up 11.01% from last week. [10] 5. Key Data on Precious Metals Fundamentals - Fed - related data: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 3.75%, the discount rate is 3.75%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.65%, and the Fed's total assets are $66908.33 billion. - Key indicators: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.54%, the US dollar index is 98.60, and various bond spreads and interest rate differentials are presented. - US inflation data: The CPI year - on - year is 2.70%, the core CPI year - on - year is 2.60%, etc. - US economic growth data: The GDP annualized year - on - year growth is 2.30%, and the annualized quarter - on - quarter growth is 4.30%. - Other data: Unemployment rate, employment data, real estate market data, consumption data, industrial data, economic survey data, central bank gold reserves, IMF foreign exchange reserve ratios, geopolitical risk index, VIX index, CRB commodity index, and offshore RMB exchange rate are all provided. Also, the Fed's latest interest rate expectations are presented. [11][13][14]

1月7日，在新的一年拉开序幕之际，全球市场依然被浓厚的不确定性迷雾所笼罩。ZFX山海证券 观察 到，被市场视为"避险天堂"的黄金与白银表现尤为亮眼，其总市值一度重返全球资产排行榜的前两名， 力压一众科技巨头。在当前避险情绪升温的环境下，实物资产的价值存储功能再次得到了市场的广泛公 认，而加密资产如比特币目前则维持在第八位。 根据 CompaniesMarketCap 最新的统计数据，黄金以 31.1 万亿美元的庞大市值稳坐全球资产头把交椅。 ZFX山海证券 表示，白银与半导体巨头英伟达（Nvidia）之间的次席争夺战已进入白热化阶段。尽管英 伟达受益于人工智能算力需求的激增而势头强劲，但白银在近期多次反超英伟达，展现出贵金属在动荡 局势中的强劲爆发力。投资者在应对全球性贸易争端与潜在地缘冲突时，倾向于将资金撤出高风险板 块，转而配置具有长久历史背书的贵金属。 宏观层面的政策转向也是驱动这一现象的关键。美联储新管理团队领导下的降息预期，是促使金银价格 屡创新高的核心动能。目前，金价与银价已分别触及 4500 美元和 80 美元附近的历史高点。尽管这股资 金流尚未完全涌入加密货币市场，但ZFX山海证券 认为，随着 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The precious metals market experienced a pullback after an initial rise, particularly influenced by a significant drop in the external market during the afternoon, leading to downward pressure on the domestic market [1] - Spot gold briefly fell below $4,450 per ounce, with a daily decline exceeding 1%, while spot silver dropped below $79 per ounce, with a daily decline of 3% [1] - As of 17:13 Beijing time, spot gold was reported at $4,464.49 per ounce, down 0.65%, and spot silver at $79.31 per ounce, down 2.35% [1] Group 2: Market Drivers - The pullback in precious metals may be driven by two factors: short-term technical profit-taking pressure and market reactions to the upcoming Bloomberg Commodity Index annual rebalancing, prompting some investors to realize profits early [1] - The market outlook suggests that precious metals may enter a high-level consolidation phase to absorb selling pressure [1] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The upcoming release of the ADP employment figures and JOLTs job openings is anticipated, with a focus on the U.S. non-farm payroll report, which could indicate a weakening labor market and influence market expectations for future interest rate cuts [2] - Current market pricing indicates a roughly 50% probability for a rate cut in March, with full pricing expected by June [2] Group 4: Gold Reserves and Predictions - China's gold reserves reached $319.45 billion at the end of December, up from $310.6 billion at the end of November, with a total of 7.415 million ounces (approximately 2306.323 tons), marking a month-on-month increase of 30,000 ounces [2] - The World Gold Council reported that global official gold reserves held by overseas governments exceeded 900 million troy ounces, valued at approximately $3.82 trillion based on November gold prices [5] - Morgan Stanley predicts that gold prices will rise to $4,800 per ounce by Q4 2026, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, continued central bank purchases, and geopolitical risks [5] Group 5: Technical Analysis - From a technical perspective, gold is in a high-level consolidation phase, with prices above the 100-hour moving average around $4,400, which serves as significant dynamic support [6] - The MACD indicator has fallen below the signal line, indicating increased short-term pullback pressure, while the RSI has dropped to around 48, reflecting a temporary balance between bullish and bearish forces [6] - For silver, the technical indicators show that bulls still control the market, although the RSI has entered an overbought state, suggesting a potential for a pullback if prices fall below $80.00 [7]

1月7日，昨日黄金走了一个偏高震荡行情，亚盘开盘小幅上扬，午盘后反弹至4470一线进场空单，美盘 前回落至4440上方，空单小赚20余美金出场。美盘再度反弹，晚间最高是到了4497美元，最终则是收盘 于4493美元，日线收于一根小阳线。 黄金：4460-4465一线做多，止损4450，目标看4500-4520-4550一线。跌破4450则反弹出多做空，看4400 破位。另外，直接突破4500可以回调最多，依次上看。 今日重点关注的财经数据与事件：2026年1月7日周三 21：15美国12月ADP就业人数 23：00美国12月ISM非制造业PMI 23：00美国11月JOLTs职位空缺 23：00美国12月全球供应链压力指数 从技术上来看，在避险情绪未消的情况下今日黄金暂时还是保留一定的看强预期，可以看强但莫要盲从 追高，目前出现的调整动作或许预示多头动能的衰竭，避险情绪的渐减，日内下方可着重关注10日线 4430-20一带的争夺，而如果晚间数据能够有利空加持，那么黄金或可能跌回至5日线4410-00一带内。 日内上方则继续关注4500整数关口，在此之前早间下跌破位口4480也值得加以关注。 总之，对于已持有的 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Aluminum is a good long - position allocation variety under the support of macro and fundamental prospects, and institutions are highly consistent in bullish on Shanghai Aluminum in 2026, with the target price pointed to the 25,000 yuan mark, and the peak may be higher this year [1][2][3] - Short - term capital boosts Shanghai Aluminum to hit historical highs, which deviates from the fundamentals. Speculative participation should be cautious, and aluminum smelters' selling hedging is cost - effective [3] 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Market Performance in 2025 - 2026 - In 2025, precious metals led by gold had the largest annual market since 1979. At the end of the year, silver, platinum, etc. soared, and copper in non - ferrous metals rose over 35%, tin over 40%, while aluminum only rose 15% [1] - At the beginning of 2026, due to the US military action against Venezuela, precious metals strengthened again, and funds were allocated to aluminum, pushing Shanghai Aluminum to 24,000 yuan [1] 3.2 Macro and Policy Environment - In 2026, the commodity rise is driven by macro - easing and tight supply - demand expectations. The Fed may cut interest rates, and a dovish Fed chairman is likely to be appointed, maintaining the global easing trend [2] - In China, as the first year of the "15th Five - Year Plan", there are strong policy expectations. The government has issued policies on equipment renewal, consumer goods replacement, and grid construction, providing support for aluminum's traditional application scenarios [2] 3.3 Aluminum Market Supply and Demand - The demand for aluminum is expected to increase due to policy support, and the consumption scenarios are expanding. However, the supply is restricted, with domestic production capacity approaching the ceiling and overseas production capacity limited by electricity. There is a risk of over 500,000 tons of production suspension at a Mozambique aluminum plant in Q1, and the aluminum market is expected to be in short supply in 2026 with low inventory becoming the norm [2] 3.4 Investment Suggestions and Risks - Shanghai Aluminum's valuation is rising, but the fundamental reality shows weakness, and there is a risk of industrial negative feedback. Short - term speculation should be cautious, and aluminum smelters' selling hedging is cost - effective as the profit per ton of aluminum has soared to around 8,000 yuan [3]

- The macro scoring model is optimistic about Chinese bonds, US stocks, copper, and crude oil[24] - The US stock timing model indicates a potential strengthening of US stocks driven by an upward revision in rate cut expectations[25] - The gold timing model remains positive on gold, with the latest indicator value at -0.51, slightly improved from the previous month[27] - The crude oil timing model maintains a cautious view, with the latest crude oil sentiment index reading at -0.05, remaining below the zero axis[33] - The macro scoring model's latest view shows an improvement in the outlook for US stocks, Chinese bonds, copper, and crude oil[24][26] - The US stock timing model's latest mid-term timing indicator for US stocks is 72.9, showing a slight improvement from the previous month[25][29] - The gold timing model's latest indicator value is -0.51, with the sub-indicators showing weakness mainly due to the significant contraction in US fiscal efforts[27][30] - The crude oil timing model's latest crude oil sentiment index reading is -0.05, indicating a continued cautious outlook[33][34] - The macro scoring model's latest view shows an improvement in the outlook for US stocks, Chinese bonds, copper, and crude oil[24][26] - The US stock timing model's latest mid-term timing indicator for US stocks is 72.9, showing a slight improvement from the previous month[25][29] - The gold timing model's latest indicator value is -0.51, with the sub-indicators showing weakness mainly due to the significant contraction in US fiscal efforts[27][30] - The crude oil timing model's latest crude oil sentiment index reading is -0.05, indicating a continued cautious outlook[33][34]

| | | 免责声明 贵金属期货日报 2026/1/6 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资， 责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可， 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引 用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） 19452 | 1004.980 | 10.0↑ 沪银主力合约收盘价（日，元/千克） | | +1205.00↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) 1,752.00 | 130,227.00 | -2296.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | | -618.00↓ | | | 主力合约成交量:沪金 | 192,491.00 | + ...

Core Viewpoint - The current rise in gold prices is driven by ongoing geopolitical risks and expectations of economic slowdown prompting interest rate cuts, creating a dual support for gold as a safe-haven asset [2][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The US dollar index has retreated from high levels, trading around 98.314, while gold prices are at $4461.06 per ounce, reflecting a 0.29% increase, with a high of $4475.46 and a low of $4426.09 [1]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the US military actions against Venezuela, have heightened risk aversion, leading to increased investment in gold and other safe-haven assets [2]. - Weak US ISM manufacturing PMI data for December has reinforced market expectations for an early interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which has pressured the dollar and supported gold prices [2]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The current upward trend in gold prices is based on the assumptions of sustained geopolitical risks and economic slowdown necessitating rate cuts, indicating a fragile foundation for this rise [3]. - The market is entering a critical verification period where the sustainability of the trend will depend on upcoming economic data supporting the narrative of monetary easing [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to heightened risk aversion following the arrest of Venezuela's president, which has provided strong upward momentum for gold [4]. - Technical indicators show that gold prices are currently above the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, with a clear bullish arrangement in the moving averages [5]. - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4400, while resistance is seen at $4480, with the market currently fluctuating between $4420 and $4460 [6].

Group 1: Japanese Economic Outlook - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, indicated that further interest rate hikes may occur if economic and price trends align with the Bank's expectations [1][6] - Japan's economy showed moderate recovery last year, withstanding the impact of U.S. tariffs on corporate profits [1][6] - Ueda expects wages and prices to rise moderately in sync, emphasizing that adjusting monetary policy is crucial for sustained economic growth [1][6] Group 2: European Economic Forecast - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that Europe's economy will reach $31.4 trillion by 2026, with Germany leading at $5.3 trillion [2][7] - The UK and France are expected to follow with nominal GDPs of $4.2 trillion and $3.6 trillion, respectively, contributing over 40% to Europe's GDP [2][7] - Italy and Spain are anticipated to achieve moderate growth, with nominal GDPs of $2.7 trillion and $2 trillion by 2026 [2][7] Group 3: Gold Market Insights - Gold prices surged, breaking the $4,400 mark and reaching a four-day high, trading around $4,470 [3][9] - The rise in gold prices is primarily driven by heightened geopolitical tensions and ongoing expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts [3][9] - Weak economic data from the U.S. has also provided support for gold prices [3][9] Group 4: Currency Market Movements - The USD/JPY pair experienced slight declines, trading around 156.30, influenced by profit-taking and a weaker dollar index due to soft economic data [4][10] - The USD/CAD pair saw an upward trend, reaching a four-week high near 1.3800, supported by reduced expectations of U.S. rate cuts and geopolitical tensions affecting the Canadian dollar [5][11]

昨天4432附近，再次空获利。 黄金暴力开局，直接闪击4400的关口，一路连涨，整体涨幅超130美金，今天多头不改，续涨箭指4500 的关口。 今天的走势 昨天一路暴走，美盘闪跌后。 再次V转，到今天延续上涨。 而且涨破4460，涨势不停。 继续看涨延续，上方看向4500的关口。 再次决战这个位置，再上破，看向4550的阻力。 当然了，面临此关口。 再次遇阻，下方调整，可再探4448的位置。 短期调整，站稳此位置上方，继续看涨不变。 下方若持续回调，跌破了4448，继续看向4400的关口，进入修正。 黄金10月疯狂跳水后，一路回升，到12月修复跌幅，冲顶新高后，再次跳水收官。每次的跳水，都迎来 回升新高，到本月又迎来爬坡模式，上方空间，可看向4550的历史高位。当然了，下方再次大的调整， 可再看向4300的关口。 操作方面，黄金再次走强，一路看涨为主，关注4448和4400做多的机会。此外，黄金上方面临关键阻 力，关注4500和4550做空的机会。 昨天主要因素： 一方面，地缘风险突袭，美闪击委，再次点燃了一个新的恐慌，直接牵扯到全球的秩序稳定。同时，中 东火药库也是蠢蠢欲动，避险需求急剧升温，利好黄金大涨。 ...