Core Viewpoint - China's manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7% in June, indicating a rebound due to effective policy measures, although export pressures remain [1][2]. Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI increased by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, marking the second consecutive month of growth [2]. - The non-manufacturing PMI also rose by 0.2 percentage points to 50.5% [2]. - New export orders index increased by 0.2 percentage points, continuing its upward trend for two months [2]. - Special bond issuance reached approximately 21,607 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, a 44.7% increase compared to 14,935 billion yuan in the same period of 2023 [2]. Policy Measures - The government is expected to implement proactive fiscal policies in the second half of the year, particularly through special bonds and local government financing to support economic growth and counteract tariff impacts [3][5]. - The upcoming Politburo meeting at the end of July is anticipated to be a critical point for policy adjustments [3][5]. Inflation and Economic Growth - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has recorded negative growth for 32 consecutive months since October 2022 [2]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year decline of 0.1% in May, with four consecutive months of negative growth [2]. - The actual GDP growth rate for the first half of the year is projected to be around 5.2%, with a target of 5% for the full year [4]. Future Outlook - Economic downward pressure persists, influenced by tariff fluctuations and weak domestic demand [5]. - The government may introduce additional policies to support key sectors and stabilize the economy, including potential monetary easing if external conditions worsen [6].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-7-9 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，6 月PMI为 49.7%，较上月上升 0.2 个百分点，连续三个月位于收缩 区间，6 月财新PMI 为 50.4，高于 5 月 2.1 个百分点，与 4 月持平，重回临界点以上。7月5 日opec发增产声明，连续第四个月增产。供需端，农膜淡季，包装膜下游持续偏弱，多数企业降 负荷，下游需求整体弱势，后续新产能投产压力仍存。近期中美交流有缓和迹象，关注谈判形势。 当前LL交割品现货价7250（-20），基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2509合约基差5，升贴水比例0.1%，中性； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存50万吨（-0.5），中性； • 4. 盘面 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IF主力合约（2509） | 3958.6 | +39.2↑ IF次主力合约（2507） | 3982.4 | +36.0↑ | | | IH主力合约（2509） | 2727.8 | +18.8↑ IH次主力合约（2507） | 2733.0 | +18.2↑ | | | IC主力合约（2509） | 5858.0 | +106.6↑ IC次主力合约（2507） | 5958.0 | +95.2↑ | | | IM主力合约（2509） | 6235.8 | +123.0↑ IM次主力合约（2507） | 6379.8 | +110.6↑ | | | IF-IH当月合约价差 | 1249.4 | +18.0↑ IC-IF当月合约价差 | 1975.6 | +61.4↑ | | 期货盘面 | IM-IC当月合约价差 | 421.8 | +13.8↑ IC-IH当月合约价差 | 3225.0 | +79.4↑ | | | IM-IF当月合约价差 | ...

Employment Data - The unemployment rate in the U.S. unexpectedly decreased to 4.1% in June 2025, with 147,000 new non-farm jobs added, surpassing market expectations[9] - Nearly half of the new jobs were contributed by local governments, with 60,000 potentially affected by seasonal adjustments in the education sector[1] - The average wage growth in June was lower than expected, indicating a loosening labor market[1] Economic Outlook - The overall employment market appears weaker than suggested by the unemployment rate and job additions, with declining wage growth and PMI survey data[1] - Due to prior inventory replenishment effects and weakened demand, the impact of tariffs on inflation may be less significant than anticipated[1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates three times in September, October, and December 2025[1] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected increases in goods prices due to tariffs, higher-than-expected tariff rates, significant energy price hikes from international conflicts, stricter immigration policies, and unexpected labor supply shortages in the U.S.[2]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI - In June, China's manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7%, up from 49.5% in the previous month, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing activity [1] - The production index increased by 0.3 percentage points to 51%, while the new orders index rose by 0.4 percentage points to 50.2%, suggesting improving demand [1] - The current PMI is primarily affected by the backlog of finished goods inventory, but as inventory is gradually digested, new order growth momentum is expected to be released further [1] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing PMI - The non-manufacturing PMI for June was 50.5%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous value [1] - The construction PMI rose by 1.8 percentage points to 52.8%, likely linked to the acceleration of "two heavy" projects and stronger policies to stabilize the real estate market [1] - The service sector PMI slightly declined by 0.1 percentage points to 50.1%, possibly due to reduced offline travel activity after holiday effects [1] Group 3: Government Debt Supply and Funding - In the first half of the year, the fiscal supply was robust, with 6.66 trillion yuan of government bonds issued, representing 51% of the annual quota [3] - Local government special bond issuance accelerated in June, with 4.4 trillion yuan of new quotas, and 48% already issued [3] - The overall issuance volume is expected to remain stable in the second half, with a projected issuance of 5.8 trillion yuan, keeping liquidity pressure manageable [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - The third quarter is expected to see a peak in local government special bond issuance, which may enhance funding for local-led projects [4] - The central bank's monetary policy tools are anticipated to support financing for "two heavy" and "two new" projects, potentially increasing infrastructure investment [4] - The economic recovery remains weak, with external demand showing marginal improvement, but internal economic momentum still requires strengthening [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, domestic commodities continued a slight rebound, with both industrial and agricultural products extending their upward trends. The main reasons were the economic resilience of China and the US, a mitigation of geopolitical risks, and a weakening US dollar, which improved market risk appetite and led to the commodity market rebound [3]. - The US labor market showed some resilience in June, but due to a high proportion of government employment and potential future downward revisions, continued monitoring is needed. The Fed may increase the flexibility of interest - rate cuts, and there is a possibility of a rate cut in September [3]. - The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill passed by the US Congress is expected to boost the GDP by an average of 1.0% over ten years (2025 - 2034) and increase long - term GDP by 1.2%. However, it may widen the wealth gap and raise concerns about US fiscal sustainability [3]. - The US is in the final stage of trade negotiations, and Trump has signed tariff letters for 12 countries with tariff rates ranging from 10% to 70%, set to take effect on August 1 [3]. - China's official manufacturing PMI in June was 49.7, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous value, indicating an overall improvement in the domestic economy. However, the manufacturing sector has not emerged from contraction, and small enterprises and emerging industries face significant pressure. There are still concerns about the domestic economic development, and new incremental policies may be introduced in the second half of the year [3]. - In the short term, uncertainty in the commodity market has increased, and market volatility may intensify. Although there are positive factors such as economic resilience and geopolitical easing, the approaching end of the US tariff suspension period and slow negotiation progress may cause market disruptions [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - **US Labor Market**: In June, the US added 147,000 non - farm jobs, higher than the expected 106,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and the previous value of 4.2%. However, due to a high proportion of government employment and potential future downward revisions, continued monitoring is required. The Fed may increase the flexibility of interest - rate cuts, and a rate cut in September is possible [3]. - **US Tax Bill**: The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill passed by the US Congress is expected to boost the GDP by an average of 1.0% over ten years (2025 - 2034) and increase long - term GDP by 1.2%. But it may widen the wealth gap and raise concerns about US fiscal sustainability [3]. - **US Trade Negotiations**: The US is in the final stage of trade negotiations. Trump has signed tariff letters for 12 countries with tariff rates ranging from 10% to 70%, set to take effect on August 1 [3]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - **China's PMI**: China's official manufacturing PMI in June was 49.7, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous value, indicating an overall improvement in the domestic economy. However, the manufacturing sector has not emerged from contraction, and small enterprises and emerging industries face significant pressure. The Strategic Emerging Industries PMI (EPMI) decreased by 3.1 percentage points to 47.9%, a new low for the year [3][21]. - **Domestic Economic Concerns**: There are still concerns about the domestic economic development. Externally, the end of the US tariff suspension period is approaching, and the progress of trade negotiations is slow. Domestically, the real estate market has seen a decline in both volume and price, and emerging industries face pressure. New incremental policies may be introduced in the second half of the year [3]. PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial Data**: On July 4, the operating rates of PTA plants, polyester plants, and POY were 76%, 89%, and 64% respectively [32]. - **Automobile Sales Data**: The data shows the trends of factory wholesale and retail sales and their year - on - year changes [35]. - **Agricultural Product Prices**: The data presents the average wholesale prices of various agricultural products such as vegetables, pork, fruits, and the Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index [40].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Report's Core View - The PMI in June shows that the domestic economic prosperity generally maintains an expansion trend, suggesting an increase in stock market holdings based on fundamentals. The State Council's emphasis on strengthening the main position of enterprise technological innovation is expected to bring more benefits to growth - style technology stocks. However, the potential restart of the US - China trade war poses a negative impact on the market. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see strategy for now [2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Disk - IF main contract (2509) is at 3918.0, down 12.0; IF sub - main contract (2507) is at 3945.0, down 12.4. IH main contract (2509) is at 2708.0, down 3.2; IH sub - main contract (2507) is at 2713.6, down 3.8. IC main contract (2509) is at 5747.6, down 12.4; IC sub - main contract (2507) is at 5859.2, down 10.8. IM main contract (2509) is at 6111.6, up 4.4; IM sub - main contract (2507) is at 6267.2, up 8.0 [2] - IF - IH current - month contract spread is 1231.4, down 9.4; IC - IF current - month contract spread is 1914.2, up 3.8. IM - IC current - month contract spread is 408.0, up 20.2; IC - IH current - month contract spread is 3145.6, down 5.6. IM - IF current - month contract spread is 2322.2, up 24.0; IM - IH current - month contract spread is 3553.6, up 14.6 [2] - IF current - quarter minus current - month is - 27.0, up 0.8; IF next - quarter minus current - month is - 62, up 2.8. IH current - quarter minus current - month is - 5.6, up 0.2; IH next - quarter minus current - month is - 5.8, up 2.2. IC current - quarter minus current - month is - 111.6, down 2.8; IC next - quarter minus current - month is - 235.4, down 3.4. IM current - quarter minus current - month is - 155.6, down 5.8; IM next - quarter minus current - month is - 340.6, down 10.8 [2] Futures Position - IF top 20 net position is - 30,779.00, up 4.0; IH top 20 net position is - 12,713.00, down 181.0. IC top 20 net position is 8,978.00, down 99.0; IM top 20 net position is - 34,962.00, down 2800.0 [2] Spot Price - CSI 300 is at 3965.17, down 17.0; IF main contract basis is - 47.2, down 1.0. SSE 50 is at 2731.53, down 8.9; IH main contract basis is - 23.5, down 0.3. CSI 500 is at 5900.41, down 11.0; IC main contract basis is - 152.8, down 6.8. CSI 1000 main contract basis is - 2274.53 [2] Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume is 6327.14 billion yuan, up 14.9%. Margin trading balance is 18,529.27 billion yuan, down 15.5%. Northbound trading volume is 1591.20 billion yuan, up 127.31 billion yuan. Reverse repurchase (maturity, operation amount) is - 3315.0 billion yuan, up 1065.0 billion yuan. Main funds (yesterday, today) are - 321.43 billion yuan and - 178.63 billion yuan respectively [2] - The proportion of rising stocks is 60.08%, up 38.50%. Shibor is 1.312%, down 0.001%. IO at - the - money call option closing price (2507) is 31.80, down 10.40; IO at - the - money call option implied volatility is 11.05%, up 0.37%. IO at - the - money put option closing price (2507) is 35.20, up 8.00; IO at - the - money put option implied volatility is 11.05%, up 0.32% [2] - CSI 300 index 20 - day volatility is 9.33%, up 0.19%. Volume PCR is 60.51%, up 12.79%. Position PCR is 70.09%, down 2.52% [2] Wind Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - All A - shares score 5.40, up 2.00; technical aspect scores 6.00, up 3.90; capital aspect scores 4.80, up 0.10 [2] Industry News - China's official manufacturing PMI in June is 49.7, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; non - manufacturing business activity index is 50.5%, up 0.2 percentage points; comprehensive PMI output index is 50.7%, up 0.3 percentage points [2] - US President Trump said on July 4th that the US government will start sending letters to trading partners to set new unilateral tariff rates, which are likely to take effect on August 1st, and the new tariff rates may range from 10% - 20% to 60% - 70% [2] - As of July 6th, 54 A - share listed companies have disclosed their semi - annual performance forecasts for 2025, including 11 with slight increases, 3 turning losses into profits, 4 with continued profits, and 21 with pre - increases [2] Market Performance - A - share major indices generally declined. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.02%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.7%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.21%. Trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets decreased significantly. About 3200 stocks rose. Industry sectors showed mixed performance, with the comprehensive and public utilities sectors strengthening and the coal sector leading the decline [2]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.7.4」 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 联系电话：4008-8787-66 取 更 多 资 讯 关 注 我 们 获 业务咨询 添加客服 「摘要」 • 周度观点：A股主要指数本周普遍上涨，除科创50外均录得上涨。四期指表现分化，大盘蓝 筹股强于中小盘股。本周一，国内6月PMI公布，三大PMI指数均较上月回升，市场情绪受到 推动；周二至周四市场震荡整理；周五午间，商务部发言人表示中美双方将各自解除经贸限 制，带动A股午后拉升。本周，市场成交活跃度较上周小幅回落。 2 来源：瑞达期货研究院 股指期货周报 作者：廖宏斌 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息面概览 3、周度市场数据 4、行情展望与策略 1、行情回顾 2020.06.30 厦门 「行情回顾」 | 期货 | 合约名称 | 周涨跌幅% | 周五涨跌幅% | 收盘价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IF2509 | 1.53 | 0.46 | 3936.0 | | | IH2509 | 1.39 | 0.62 | 2717.2 | | | IC2509 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View of the Report The bond market is currently in a period of limited fundamental data and policy calm, lacking a clear main line. The liquidity situation is the key variable affecting the bond market. With loose liquidity at the beginning of the month, the bond market is expected to oscillate strongly. However, the current interest rate curve is relatively flat, and the downward space for long - term interest rates can only be opened after a further decline in short - term interest rates [23]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Important Event Review - **PMI Data**: In June, the manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and composite PMI output index were 49.7%, 50.5%, and 50.7% respectively. The manufacturing production index rose 0.3 percentage points to 51.0%, and the new order index rose 0.4 percentage points to 50.2%. The new export order index rose 0.2 percentage points to 47.7%. The contraction of raw material purchase prices and ex - factory price indices slowed down. The destocking pace of raw materials and finished products slowed down. In non - manufacturing, the construction business activity index rose 1.8 percentage points to 52.8%, while the service business activity index dropped 0.1 percentage points to 50.1%. Considering the influence of high - temperature and typhoon weather, the manufacturing industry may face seasonal decline in economic prosperity [9]. 2. Funding Price - **Post - Quarter Funding Eased**: From June 27 to July 3, the central bank net - withdrew over 50 billion yuan in the open market. After the quarter, the funding situation returned to a loose state. DR007 fell below 1.50%, and R007 dropped to around 1.52%, both lower than the levels in the first half of June. The yield of 1 - year inter - bank certificates of deposit also dropped significantly, reaching a new low of around 1.61% [10]. 3. Primary Market - **Slower Issuance at the Beginning of the Quarter**: From June 27 to July 3, 56 interest - rate bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 335 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 202.1 billion yuan. The scale of newly - added local special bonds increased significantly at the end of June, possibly due to quarterly or semi - annual issuance progress requirements, and decreased significantly at the beginning of July [15]. 4. Secondary Market - **Strong Oscillation and Steeper Curve**: From June 27 to July 3, the yields of all - term treasury bonds declined, with relatively larger declines in medium - and short - term treasury bond yields, mainly driven by loose funding. The bond market had limited incremental information, and the interest rate oscillation range was small. In this market situation, investors pursued spreads such as those between new and old bonds [16]. 5. Market Outlook - **Fundamentals**: Recent incremental information mainly focuses on changes in the trade environment, such as the indirect impact of trade agreements between the US and other countries on China [21]. - **Policy**: At the central level, the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission on July 1 discussed issues such as promoting the construction of a unified national market and high - quality development of the marine economy, which is helpful for improving the current low - inflation situation. In terms of monetary policy, compared with the first - quarter meeting, the second - quarter meeting communiqué had three main changes. The possibility of introducing incremental policies in July is limited, and the monetary policy mainly focuses on "implementing existing policies + flexible adjustment", with attention on open - market operations [22]. - **Funding**: Liquidity remains the key variable affecting the bond market. Liquidity is mainly loose at the beginning of the month, and the main point of contention is whether the central bank will buy short - term treasury bonds in the open market [22].

德国6月建筑业PMI 44.8，前值44.4。 ...