2025 年 06 月 26 日 苏州银行 (002966) 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 | 市场数据： 2025 年 06 月 26 日 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 9.13 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 9.24/6.60 | | 市净率 | 0.8 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 4.38 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 40,071 | | 上证指数/深证成指 3,448.45/10,343.48 | | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 03 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 10.90 | | 资产负债率% | 91.73 | | 总股本/流通 A 股(百万) | 4,471/4,389 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 06-26 07-26 08-26 09-26 10-26 11-26 12-26 01-26 02-26 03-26 04-26 05-26 06-26 -20% 0% 20% 40% 苏州 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market has shown a stronger performance compared to the A-share market this year, leading to increased investor attention on the lower valuations of Hong Kong stocks [1] - The AH share premium index has fallen below 130, indicating a convergence in valuation between A-shares and H-shares, with instances of leading stocks like CATL having higher H-share prices than A-shares [1][2] - The decline in AH share premium is attributed to changes in investor sentiment towards value investing, capital market openness, and the transition of the macro economy towards high-quality development [2] Group 2 - The influx of mainland capital into the Hong Kong market through the Stock Connect program has significantly improved liquidity, with over 720 billion HKD net inflow this year, accounting for nearly one-sixth of the total since the program's inception [1] - The presence of high-quality internet technology companies in the Hong Kong market enhances its attractiveness, especially with significant investments in artificial intelligence [2] - The trend of leading A-share companies, such as CATL, listing in Hong Kong to expand overseas business aligns with market perceptions of how Chinese enterprises can break through, thereby boosting valuations of Hong Kong-listed companies [2][3] Group 3 - The increasing number of non-traditional financial and energy companies listing in Hong Kong suggests a future influx of quality Chinese assets, which will attract additional trading capital [3] - As the scarcity of companies in the Hong Kong market continues and southbound capital flows increase, the pricing power of mainland investors over Hong Kong stocks is expected to rise, potentially leading to further convergence of liquidity discounts [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the A-share total market value has reached a historical high primarily due to the valuation recovery of quality blue-chip stocks, which continues to provide upward momentum for the market value [1][2][3] - Valuation recovery reflects a rational correction of the market towards the intrinsic value of quality enterprises, aligning stock prices more closely with their profitability and growth potential [1][2] - The influx of capital into core asset stocks has driven up their prices, significantly contributing to the overall increase in A-share market value, particularly in sectors like consumption and finance [1][2] Group 2 - Valuation recovery not only contributes to the current high of the A-share total market value but also lays a solid foundation for future market development, enhancing overall market quality [2][3] - The recovery of blue-chip stock valuations is expected to attract more long-term capital into the market, creating a virtuous cycle that optimizes resource allocation towards more competitive enterprises [2] - Future prospects indicate that if the valuation of quality blue-chip stocks continues to rise, the A-share total market value is likely to keep increasing, supported by steady economic recovery and ongoing policy support [2][3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant rise of the innovative drug sector, with the Hang Seng Innovative Drug Index increasing by 55.61% year-to-date, outperforming the Hang Seng Index's 17.30% growth [1] - The innovative drug industry is transitioning from experience-based competition to technology-driven competition, positioning itself as a "tech-like" asset [1][2] - The trend of Chinese innovative drugs going global is irreversible and expected to strengthen, with a focus on whether Chinese companies can outperform their overseas counterparts in new target selection [2][6] Group 2 - The current price-to-sales (PS) valuation of innovative drugs is around 4 times, which is considered neutral in the context of asset scarcity, indicating potential for continued stock price increases as clinical data and business development improve [2][7] - The innovative drug market is characterized by high unmet medical needs, particularly in areas with few available treatment options, which presents opportunities for the development of blockbuster drugs [3][8] - The "double 10" rule in new drug development indicates an average development cycle of 10 years and costs exceeding $1 billion, highlighting the high-risk nature of the industry [4] Group 3 - China's innovative drug sector has made significant progress, with over 50% contribution to the top 20 global drug targets and surpassing Europe in original drug numbers as of 2021 [5][6] - The competition landscape is evolving into a scenario where both China and the U.S. are advancing in the innovative drug sector, with increased global competitiveness for Chinese companies [6] - The innovative drug sector is expected to continue its strong performance, driven by its alignment with current market trends and the recovery of valuations after years of pressure [7][8] Group 4 - Specific areas with strong potential for new drug development include antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs), GLP-1 metabolic disease drugs, and gene therapy for rare diseases [8] - For investors looking to enter the innovative drug market, a systematic investment approach through funds is recommended due to the high barriers and complexities involved in the sector [9]

风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 清楚也晴天 来源：雪球 关于我，一个热爱市场先生的90后程序员。 很高兴 ， 这是我在雪球发布的第一篇文章 。 希望借此与同道中人 ， 共同探讨投资理财之路 。 理财入门 2025年是我正式踏入投资理财第六个年头 ， 之所以冠以 " 正式 " 二字 ， 是因为在2019年之前主要以余额宝 为主 ， 并没有理财的思维 。 在一次刷抖音短视频时 ， 刷到有位财商老师 在讲解富爸爸与穷爸爸的故事 ， 因此点燃了我强烈的兴趣 。 此 后便利用坐地铁的碎片化时间 ， 从富爸爸穷爸爸 ， 巴比伦最富有的人 ， 共同基金常识 ， 聪明的投资者 ， 证券分析 ， 从财报看经营本质 ， 财富自由之路 ， 怎样选择成长股 ， 投资学 ， 诺贝尔经济学奖丛书…慢慢 补课 。 初次购买基金 在2019年九月 ， 开始了我正式理财之路 。 因为做了些功课 ， 故而主要买的是管理费低的ETF联接基金 ， 或 许是运气太好 ， 赶上了牛市上升期 ， 买啥啥赚钱 ， 不知道的还以为水平多强 ， 夸夸其谈述说着科技是未来 。 第一次恐慌时刻 在一路顺 ...

红利低波ETF（512890）成立于2018年12月19日，该基金管理费率每年0.50%，托管费率每年0.10%。红 利低波ETF（512890）业绩比较基准为中证红利低波动指数收益率。红利低波ETF（512890）现任基金 经理为柳军。柳军自2018年12月19日管理（或拟管理）该基金，任职期内收益140.10%。对于偏好稳健 收益、低风险波动，或寻求债券替代资产的没有股票账户的投资者，可通过关注红利低波 ETF （512890）的联接基金（包括 A 类 007466、C 类 007467、I 类 022678、Y 类 022951）参与投资。 6月26日，红利低波（512890）收盘涨0.42%，最新价1.206元，成交额3.30亿元。流动性上看，20个交 易日资金净流入17亿，60个交易日资金净流入31.72亿元。截止6月25日，红利低波ETF（512890）最新 份额为158.73亿份，最新规模为190.56亿元。回顾2024年12月31日，红利低波ETF（512890）份额为 122.62亿份，规模为137.50亿元。即该基金今年以来份额增加29.45%，规模增加38.59%。 | 代码 7 | 简 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expansion rhythm of index constituent bonds is significantly slower than the growth rate of credit bond ETF scale. Amid the bond - snatching market, low - valuation transactions of constituent bonds emerge. There are three aspects to consider: "far", "发", and "扩". "Far" involves the conduction mechanism of corporate bond - China Securities - China Bond interest rates; "发" means that buying in the primary market can still be profitable during the bond - snatching period; "扩" refers to the analysis of constituent bonds benefiting from the issuance and expansion of science and technology innovation bond ETFs [1]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Review of the Bond - Snatching Market Driven by the Expansion of Credit Bond ETFs - As of June 20, 2025, the total scale of 8 benchmark market - making credit bond ETFs reached 106.6 billion yuan, an increase of 77.7 billion yuan compared to the end of March, with a 41.7 - billion - yuan increase since June. The expansion rhythm of index constituent bonds is significantly slower than the growth rate of credit bond ETF scale. In the Shanghai market - making aspect, the scale of Shanghai - based benchmark market - making ETFs accounts for 11.0% of the credit bond index constituent bonds, a 4.5 - percentage - point increase compared to the end of May. In the Shenzhen market - making aspect, it accounts for 12.4%, a 4.8 - percentage - point increase compared to the end of May [1][3]. - During the bond - snatching market, low - valuation transactions of constituent bonds emerge. ETF product preferences lean towards constituent bonds with larger outstanding scales and higher valuation stability. For example, in the Shanghai market, the number of low - valuation transactions and transaction amounts of the top 3 constituent entities have significantly increased since June, with an average low - valuation amplitude of - 1.7BP, a 1BP increase compared to May, and the transaction amount from June 1 to June 20 was 5.37 billion yuan, a 1.61 - billion - yuan increase compared to the whole of May. In the Shenzhen market, trading volume has increased significantly since the second quarter, with an average low - valuation transaction amplitude of - 4.5BP in June, a 0.9BP increase compared to May, and the transaction amount from June 1 to June 20 was 3.94 billion yuan, a 1.26 - billion - yuan increase compared to the whole of May [1][7]. 2. Game "Far": The Conduction Mechanism of Corporate Bond - China Securities - China Bond Interest Rates - The impact of low - valuation transactions on bond valuations is mainly reflected in two dimensions. Firstly, the valuation divergence between exchange - traded corporate bonds and comparable inter - bank bonds. For example, the valuation difference between 24 Zhonghua 16 and its comparable inter - bank bond 25 Zhonghua MTN001 was within 2BP before the end of May, but has widened to 7BP since June. Secondly, the impact of the surge in credit bond ETFs on the yield curve. The duration of Shenzhen credit bond ETF is 3.05 years, and that of Shanghai credit bond ETF is 4.11 years. The surge in credit bond ETFs boosts the allocation demand for 3 - 5 - year credit bonds, flattens the yield curve, narrows the credit spreads of medium - and high - grade bonds, and drives down the overall valuation of high - grade credit bonds [1][12]. 3. Game "发": Buying in the Primary Market Can Still Be Profitable During the Bond - Snatching Period - Newly issued science and technology innovation bonds in the primary market are mainly issued at low valuations, with the coupon rate at issuance being on average - 6BP lower than the valuation. Among 53 non - financial science and technology innovation bonds with comparable bonds, 13 are issued at high valuations, 40 at low valuations, 13 with a low - valuation exceeding - 10BP, and the maximum low - valuation is - 25BP. Currently, most science and technology innovation bonds' valuations are within ±2BP of comparable bonds. The secondary bond - snatching market may spread to the primary market. Since May, the situation of weak profit - making effects caused by low - valuation issuance of science and technology innovation bonds may change. Some low - valuation issued bonds still have potential for discovery, and it is recommended to focus on science and technology innovation bonds with a low - valuation of within - 5BP in the primary market [1][17]. 4. Game "扩": Analysis of Constituent Bonds Benefiting from the Issuance and Expansion of Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETFs - There are two main lines for constituent bond discovery: bonds with a remaining term of over 5 years and an outstanding scale of over 1.5 billion yuan. Long - term science and technology innovation bonds can significantly enhance the portfolio duration and scale expansion. Bonds included in both the science and technology innovation bond index and the credit bond benchmark market - making index may benefit from both the expansion of credit bond ETFs and the issuance of the science and technology innovation bond index. Among them, non - perpetual bonds may have stronger allocation potential [1][19].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market is increasingly recognized as a vital platform for capital operations, particularly in fund investment exits and mergers and acquisitions (M&A) [1][3] - The Hong Kong Company Secretarial Association emphasizes the importance of Hong Kong as a key international market for asset restructuring and fund exits for Chinese enterprises [1] - Recent discussions highlighted the growing trend of diversified exit strategies for investment institutions due to declining IPO valuations and increased liquidity demands [3] Group 2 - Legal experts discussed critical issues for funds and financial investors when exiting through the Hong Kong stock market, including special shareholder rights and compliance with Hong Kong Stock Exchange regulations [5] - The importance of understanding the differences in lock-up periods for various types of investors during the IPO stage was emphasized [5] - The regulatory requirements for cornerstone investors in the IPO process were outlined, along with potential exemptions [5] Group 3 - Cross-border M&A legal due diligence now requires a focus on trade compliance and risks associated with economic sanctions [7] - Geopolitical factors may lead to stricter antitrust reviews and foreign investment scrutiny in cross-border transactions [7] - Key clauses in M&A agreements may vary by region, with a trend towards enhanced guarantees and indemnities to increase transaction certainty [7] Group 4 - Recent updates to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange guidelines have introduced specific requirements for valuation disclosures in transactions [9][10] - Various valuation methods were discussed, including their principles, applicability, and key considerations during practical implementation [10] - Tax considerations for fund exits and M&A were addressed, including the tax treatment of RMB and USD fund structures [11]

截至2025年6月20日，中泰资管风险系统对各大资本市场的系统评分情况如下： 沪深300指数的中泰资管风险系统评分为45.39，较上月42.04有所上升，权益评分仍属中等偏低风险区间。 当前市场在政策支持与经济复苏预期的双重作用下，基本面和情绪回暖，但全球不确定性及内部结构分化 仍对整体风险水平形成制约，并带来情绪与预期的折返跑。 沪深300估值较上月有所上升（本月46.58，上月43.53）。虽然估值整体有所回升，行业间估值分化现象依 然延续。目前，28个申万一级行业中钢铁、房地产、商业、国防军工、计算机的行业估值高于历史60%分 位数；农林牧渔、食品饮料、非银金融等行业的估值低于历史10%分位数。市场整体估值的调整，反映了 市场对经济复苏节奏和企业盈利预期的重新评估。 市场预期分数较上月有所下滑（本月48.00，上月55.00）。宏观分析师认为经济仍待政策呵护。消费高速 增长，但持续性需要观察。一些分析师认为美国关税战带来的出口转弱的预期对民间制造业投资的意愿有 较大抑制。月度房地产投资持续下降，商品房销售下滑，也对市场预期带来较大的负面冲击。中美互降关 税的后续政策协同效应仍在评估中。 市场情绪较上月有 ...

Group 1 - Foreign investors have shifted to net selling of Japanese stocks for the first time since March, selling 524.3 billion yen (approximately 3.62 billion USD) after 11 consecutive weeks of buying totaling 7.236 trillion yen [1] - Analysts attribute the shift to high market valuations, as the market continues to rise despite weak earnings, leading to concerns about overvaluation [1] - The geopolitical tensions, particularly the Israel-Iran conflict, may also be influencing foreign investors' decisions due to potential impacts on Japan's oil imports and inflation levels [1] Group 2 - Despite the recent net selling, foreign investment in Japanese stocks this quarter has reached approximately 6.81 trillion yen, marking the largest inflow in two years [2] - In the bond market, foreign investors sold 368.8 billion yen of Japanese long-term bonds, ending a three-week buying streak, but purchased 1.5 trillion yen in short-term notes, the highest level in nine weeks [2] - Japanese investors have been net sellers of foreign stocks for six consecutive weeks, selling 88.2 billion yen, while buying about 615.5 billion yen in long-term foreign bonds [2]