当地时间5月22日周四，美股收盘涨跌不一，道指基本持平，标普500指数跌0.04%，纳指涨0.28%。 美国众议院以微弱票数批准特朗普税改方案后，市场忧虑美国财政赤字风险上升。受此影响，美国长期国债市场面临抛售压力，30年期国债收益率持续上 行，创下自2023年10月以来新高。 美股三大指数走势分化 美国国债收益率大幅攀升 当地时间周四，美股三大指数走势分化。Wind数据显示，截至收盘，道指基本收平，报41859.09点；标普500指数跌0.04%，报5842.01点；纳指涨0.28%， 报18925.73点。 板块方面，大型科技股多数上涨，万得美国科技七巨头指数涨0.6%。个股方面，特斯拉涨近2%，谷歌涨逾1%，亚马逊涨近1%，英伟达涨0.78%，微软涨 0.51%，脸书涨0.17%，苹果跌0.36%。 银行股多数上涨，摩根大通跌0.14%，高盛涨0.77%，花旗跌0.03%，摩根士丹利涨0.76%，美国银行涨0.12%，富国银行涨0.2%。 能源股全线走低，埃克森美孚跌0.68%，雪佛龙跌0.21%，康菲石油跌超1%，斯伦贝谢跌0.38%，西方石油跌0.15%。 中概股多数下跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌1. ...

美股整体市场维持窄幅震荡格局，但美债市场的动荡仍在持续。其中，美国30年期国债收益率一度升至5.149%，为2023年10月以来最高水平；美国5—30年期国债 收益率曲线陡峭程度一度扩大至100个基点。美联储理事沃勒表示，美联储不会在一级拍卖中购买债券。 有分析称，随着大型投资者开始逐步将美国国债换成其他避险资产，美国的偿债成本将继续攀升，这可能给美元带来进一步的下行压力，并降低美国股市的吸引 力。 美股太阳能板块突遭重击。 今晚，美股开盘后，美股太阳能板块全线暴跌，Sunrun一度暴跌超42%，SolarEdge盘初大跌超26%，Complete Solaria大跌超17%。消息面上，美国总统特朗普签署 的减税法案在众议院以微弱优势通过，该法案可能会终止支持可再生能源行业的众多绿色能源补贴。 美股太阳能板块重挫 北京时间5月22日晚间，美股开盘后，三大指数震荡分化，截至22:30，道指跌0.2%，纳指涨0.51%，标普500指数微跌0.06%。 其中，美股太阳能板块全线暴跌，Sunrun一度暴跌超42%，SolarEdge一度大跌超26%，Complete Solaria大跌超17%，Enphase Ene ...

"当收益率上升与经济增长强劲挂钩时，股市尚可消化，"瑞士宝盛股票策略主管马蒂厄·拉赫特指出，"但若由通胀恐惧或财政忧虑驱动利率走高，则往往会 削弱股票估值。" 智通财经APP注意到，在特朗普总统的税改法案以微弱优势通过众议院后，美国长期国债和股指期货重返跌势。 30年期国债收益率逼近5.14%，距离金融危机时期高点仅一步之遥。标普500指数期货下跌0.3%，预示该基准指数可能连续第三日收跌。美元汇率震荡波 动，比特币则继续刷新历史高位。原油价格回落。 美国立法者推进的这项涉及数万亿美元的庞大法案，虽避免了年终增税，却以加重联邦债务负担为代价。 此前穆迪评级下调已将不断膨胀的财政赤字问题推向风口浪尖。这种担忧体现在国债市场上——就在标普500指数反弹至牛市边缘之际，债市情绪再度受 挫。 花旗集团策略师贝娅塔·曼特在接受采访时表示，"债券义警卷土重来，""市场正在担忧债务可持续性。考虑到股市刚刚出现的强劲反弹，这种局面相当不 利。" 周四，10年期美债收益率上升1个基点至4.61%。债市担忧在于，当投资者对美国资产的兴趣减弱时，该税法案将使本已庞大的赤字再增数万亿美元。 策略师马克·克兰菲尔德分析称，法案通过虽不 ...

美元，再遭抛售！ 最近几天，美元持续下挫。5月21日，衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数再次跌破100，这也是美元连续第三 天下跌。5月22日盘中，美元指数继续弱势震荡，盘中最低触及99.43。其中，美元兑日元一度下跌0.6%至 142.81，创两周新低。 自今年1月高点以来，美元指数的累计跌幅已接近10%。彭博社指出，一项指标表明，货币期权交易员对美元 今后一年间走势的看空情绪达到历史顶峰。 此外，22日晚间消息，在特朗普税收法案勉强通过众议院后，美国30年期国债收益率短线拉升，日内上升逾2 个基点，报5.123%，为2023年10月以来的最高日内水平，距离2007年以来的最高点越来越近。这表明投资者 对特朗普的减税计划表示反对，对财政赤字的担忧也开始对股市产生越来越大的压力。 值得关注的是，在美元被抛售的同时，比特币却受到资金追捧。22日，比特币大涨超4%并突破11万美元大 关，创出历史新高。有分析指出，比特币升至历史新高，原因之一是投资者寻求美国资产的替代品。此外，美 国监管利好，也提振了加密货币市场。 22日，美股加密货币概念股盘前集体上涨，CleanSpark涨超5.6%， MARA Holdings ...

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank warns that the biggest threat to the US dollar may stem from the US government's own fiscal situation, with the fiscal uncertainty index reaching a historical high due to ongoing disputes over tax reform and budget deficits [1][4]. Group 1: Fiscal Situation and Debt Market - The US fiscal uncertainty index has surged to a historical high, primarily driven by continuous debates surrounding tax reform, fiscal deficits, and long-term budget outlooks [4][6]. - Despite a relatively strong economic backdrop, the US fiscal deficit remains exceptionally large and unsustainable, contradicting historical patterns where deficits correlate with high unemployment rates [4][6]. - Investor interest in US Treasuries is waning, as evidenced by the 30-year and 20-year Treasury yields both surpassing 5%, yet the latest 20-year Treasury auction results were disappointing, indicating a quiet withdrawal of foreign capital [3][6]. Group 2: Domestic vs. Foreign Investment - Historically, foreign investors have been the primary buyers of US Treasuries, and if this trend of withdrawal continues, the question of who will step in to purchase these bonds becomes critical [6][7]. - Domestic institutions may be incentivized to buy US Treasuries due to high yields, but their holdings in the Treasury market have significantly decreased compared to decades past, and they are less sensitive to US fiscal deficits than foreign investors [7][9]. - Even if domestic investors increase their Treasury purchases, it may not prevent the dollar from weakening, as they lack sufficient overseas assets to offset the outflow of foreign capital [7][11]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Domestic institutions currently hold a historically high position in the stock market, and any significant shift towards increasing Treasury allocations would likely require them to reduce their stock holdings, potentially leading to a chain reaction in the markets [9][11]. - Overall, while domestic institutions may find opportunities in US Treasuries, the ongoing withdrawal of foreign investors poses a clear downside risk for the US dollar [11].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a broad decline on Thursday, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.22% to 3380.19 points, the Shenzhen Composite Index down by 0.95%, and the ChiNext Index decreasing by 1.15% [1] - The total trading volume across A-shares was 1.1397 trillion yuan, a decrease from 1.2144 trillion yuan on Wednesday [1] - Small-cap stocks led the decline, while sectors such as banking, insurance, coal, oil, and public transportation saw gains [1] Sector Performance - The sectors that experienced the largest declines included batteries, non-metallic materials, engineering consulting services, automotive services, professional services, beauty care, instrumentation, electronic chemicals, and food and beverage [1] - The recent pullback in small-cap stocks is attributed to excessive inflows of funds and crowded trading, leading to volatility in market sentiment [1] U.S. Market Influence - The U.S. financial market faced a "triple hit" with declines in stocks, currencies, and bonds, as all three major U.S. stock indices fell by over 1% [1] - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield rose from 4.973% to 5.094%, while the 20-year yield increased from 4.998% to 5.122%, and the 10-year yield went from 4.487% to 4.601% [1] - The poor demand in the recent 20-year Treasury auction, with a yield exceeding 5%, contributed to the negative sentiment in the U.S. market [2] Investor Sentiment - Despite the decline in small-cap stocks, the overall market sentiment remains relatively stable, with most stocks that had limited prior gains not experiencing significant declines [2] - International institutions have shown a noticeable improvement in their outlook on A-shares, with foreign capital entering the market [2] - Positive signals from China regarding tariff negotiations, military product capabilities, and chip development may contribute to a gradual accumulation of favorable conditions in the market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Congress's tax reform proposal is raising concerns about significantly increasing the federal deficit, leading to a rise in U.S. Treasury yields and a sell-off in the stock market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The U.S. stock market experienced a notable decline on May 21, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 816.80 points to close at 41,860.44, a decrease of 1.91% [1]. - The S&P 500 index fell by 95.85 points to 5,844.61, down 1.61%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index decreased by 270.07 points to 18,872.64, a drop of 1.41% [1]. - The auction of $16 billion in 20-year Treasury bonds saw weak demand, resulting in a rise in bond yields, which negatively impacted the stock market [1]. Group 2: Treasury Yields - The 30-year Treasury yield surpassed 5% for the second time that week, closing at 5.09%, marking the highest level since October 2023 [2]. - The 10-year Treasury yield increased by 11 basis points to 4.6% on the same day [2]. - The yield on the 20-year Treasury bond reached 5.047%, the first time it has exceeded 5% since October 2023, indicating a lack of interest in purchasing new bonds [1][2]. Group 3: Economic Concerns - The proposed tax reform is expected to increase the federal deficit by approximately $3 trillion over the next decade, raising the debt-to-GDP ratio from 100% to a record 125% [2]. - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 due to rising government debt and interest expenditures [2]. - Concerns about inflation control and debt management are contributing to the rise in Treasury yields, as noted by market analysts [3]. Group 4: Corporate Earnings Impact - Major retailers, including Target, have lowered their full-year earnings forecasts due to slowing consumer spending and declining confidence, further pressuring the stock market [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold prices were boosted by factors related to the weakening of the US dollar's credit, including the potential tax bill by the Trump administration and the results of US Treasury auctions [2][3]. - The continuous expansion of the US fiscal deficit during the Trump administration is a positive factor for the medium - term price trend of gold. It is recommended to buy on dips for Shanghai Gold, with the main contract of Shanghai Gold expected to trade in the range of 756 - 809 yuan/gram [3]. - Silver requires a clear dovish stance from the Federal Reserve to have strong upward momentum. It is recommended to wait and see for now, with the main contract of Shanghai Silver expected to trade in the range of 7944 - 8380 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3. Summary of Related Data 3.1 Price and Yield Data - Shanghai Gold (Au) rose 0.92% to 777.74 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver (Ag) rose 0.86% to 8285.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX Gold rose 0.33% to 3324.50 dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver rose 0.12% to 33.69 dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.58%, and the US dollar index was 99.64 [2]. - In the table of precious metal price data, prices of various gold and silver products such as Au(T + D), London Gold, etc., showed different degrees of increase or decrease compared to the previous trading day [4]. 3.2 Data on Gold and Silver Contracts - For COMEX gold on May 21, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 3316.60 dollars/ounce, up 0.73% from the previous day; the trading volume was 22.61 million lots, up 2.09%; the open interest was 44.08 million lots, down 2.56% [6]. - For COMEX silver on May 21, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 33.58 dollars/ounce, up 0.95% from the previous day; the open interest was 13.83 million lots, down 1.43%; the inventory was 15570 tons, down 0.09% [6]. 3.3 Data on ETF Holdings - The holdings of SPDR Gold ETF decreased by 1.72 tons to 919.88 tons, a decrease of 0.19%. The holdings of SLV Silver ETF remained unchanged at 14054.89 tons [4]. 3.4 Spread Data - On May 21, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX spread for gold was 31.1035 yuan/gram (7.96 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA spread was - 0.14 yuan/gram (- 0.61 dollars/ounce). The SHFE - COMEX spread for silver was 468.78 yuan/kilogram (2.02 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA spread for silver was 506.43 yuan/kilogram (2.19 dollars/ounce) [52].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges facing the U.S. economy, particularly the rising government borrowing costs and the implications of a potential increase in the national debt due to tax cuts and other fiscal policies [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Impact of Rising Debt - The U.S. economy is experiencing a second wave of challenges following the resolution of tariff issues, with rising government borrowing costs becoming increasingly evident [1]. - Moody's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating has led to a sell-off in U.S. Treasury bonds, causing yields to rise sharply, with the 30-year Treasury yield reaching 5.089%, the highest since October 2023 [2]. - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicts that the Republican tax cuts could increase the deficit to about 7% of GDP, an unprecedented level for a low unemployment economy [2][3]. Group 2: Government and Consumer Borrowing Costs - As Treasury yields rise, the government faces higher interest payments on nearly $29 trillion in debt, potentially leading to increased taxes or reduced government services for citizens [4]. - The high interest rate environment not only affects government finances but also impacts consumers, as borrowing costs for significant purchases like homes and cars are linked to long-term yields [4]. Group 3: Political Stance on Fiscal Policy - There is skepticism regarding whether the Trump administration will make substantial fiscal adjustments, with Republican leaders arguing that the CBO's deficit projections are exaggerated [5]. - Analysts suggest that there will be no significant fiscal tightening in the foreseeable future, and the U.S. is likely to continue running large deficits [5][6]. - The Trump administration's previous promises to address the deficit through efficiency measures have been scaled back, indicating a lack of urgency in tackling the growing debt [6][7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The stock market's risk appetite has gradually recovered, and it is recommended to go long on IH or IF index futures related to the economy and IC or IM futures related to "new productive forces" on dips. For single - sided trading, it is recommended to buy IF index long contracts on dips, and there is no recommended arbitrage strategy [2][3][4]. - The LPR cut is in line with expectations, and the deposit rate cut by large banks may lead to deposits flowing to non - banks. The bond market faces short - term adjustment pressure, and it is advisable to wait for opportunities after a pullback and mainly enter the market on dips [6]. - The continuous expansion of the US fiscal deficit is positive for the medium - term price trend of gold, and it is recommended to go long on gold on dips. For silver, it is recommended to wait and see for now [7][8]. - For various metals, their prices are affected by factors such as supply and demand, inventory, and external policies, and different price trends and trading suggestions are presented [10][11][12]. - For energy and chemical products, factors such as supply and demand, production, and inventory affect their prices, and corresponding trading strategies are given [34][38][40]. - For agricultural products, the prices are affected by factors such as production, supply and demand, and policies, and trading strategies are also proposed [51][52][53]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.21%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.83%, etc. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1173.4 billion yuan, an increase of 3.8 billion yuan from the previous day. The margin trading balance increased by 2.254 billion yuan [2]. - **Macro News**: Shanghai will promote state - owned listed companies to improve market value management systems; many joint - stock banks cut deposit rates; Japan may accept US tariff cuts, and India and the US are discussing a trade agreement [2]. - **Valuation**: The price - earnings ratios of CSI 300, CSI 500, etc. are 12.65, 29.04, etc.; the price - to - book ratios are 1.32, 1.79, etc.; the dividend yields are 3.44%, 1.81%, etc. [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on IH or IF index futures related to the economy and IC or IM futures related to "new productive forces" on dips. For single - sided trading, buy IF index long contracts on dips [3][4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: The TL main contract fell 0.08%, the T main contract was flat, the TF main contract rose 0.03%, and the TS main contract rose 0.02% [5]. - **News**: China and ASEAN completed the negotiation of the FTA 3.0 version. The central bank conducted 157 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 65 billion yuan [5][6]. - **Strategy**: The LPR cut is in line with expectations, and the bond market faces short - term adjustment pressure. It is advisable to wait for opportunities after a pullback and mainly enter the market on dips [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Shanghai gold rose 0.92%, Shanghai silver rose 0.86%, etc. [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The continuous expansion of the US fiscal deficit is positive for the medium - term price trend of gold. It is recommended to go long on gold on dips. For silver, it is recommended to wait and see for now [7][8]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price of copper fluctuated, with LME copper down 0.71%. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the price is expected to move down. The reference range for Shanghai copper is 77000 - 78400 yuan/ton [10]. - **Aluminum**: The price of aluminum oscillated and declined, with LME aluminum down 0.22%. The consumption season is light, and the price is expected to be volatile. The reference range for domestic aluminum is 20000 - 20260 yuan/ton [11]. - **Zinc**: The price of zinc rose 0.76%. The zinc concentrate market is expected to be in surplus, and the zinc price has a downward risk in the medium term [12]. - **Lead**: The price of lead rose 0.28%. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 16300 - 17800 yuan/ton in the medium term, and the short - term price is strong [13]. - **Nickel**: The price of nickel oscillated. The cost of nickel is expected to loosen, and the price is bearish. The reference range for Shanghai nickel is 120000 - 130000 yuan/ton [14]. - **Tin**: The price of tin rose 1.13%. The supply is expected to loosen, and the price is expected to move down. The reference range for domestic tin is 250000 - 270000 yuan/ton [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate was flat. The supply and demand lack strong drivers, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. The reference range for the 2507 contract is 60400 - 61800 yuan/ton [16][17]. - **Alumina**: The price of alumina rose 3.55%. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term due to supply disturbances. The reference range for the AO2509 contract is 2900 - 3500 yuan/ton [18]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of stainless steel rose 0.23%. The market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [19]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The price of rebar rose 0.098%, and the price of hot - rolled coil rose 0.281%. The demand for plates and exports may strengthen marginally in the short term, but the long - term demand is still under pressure [21][22]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore rose 0.48%. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to decline. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [23]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The price of glass decreased, and the price of soda ash was flat. The glass price is expected to be weak, and the soda ash price is also expected to be weak in the medium term [24][25]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: The price of manganese silicon rose 0.24%, and the price of ferrosilicon fell 0.32%. It is recommended to wait and see for both, as the demand is expected to weaken [26][27]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of industrial silicon fell 0.94%. The supply is in surplus, and the demand is insufficient. It is recommended to wait and see and not to buy on dips prematurely [31][32]. Energy and Chemicals - **Rubber**: The EU launched an anti - dumping investigation on Chinese tires. It is recommended to have a neutral or bearish view and operate short - term. Pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [34][37]. - **Crude Oil**: The price of WTI crude oil fell 2.04%, and the price of Brent crude oil fell 1.55%. It is considered that the oil price is in the high - valuation range, and it is advisable to short on rallies [38][39]. - **Methanol**: The price of methanol rose. The supply is weakening, and it is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the anti - arbitrage opportunity [40]. - **Urea**: The price of urea rose. The market is in a situation of both supply and demand booming. It is recommended to wait and see and consider buying on dips after a significant pullback [41]. - **PVC**: The price of PVC rose. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be weak and volatile [42]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price of ethylene glycol rose. The inventory is decreasing, and the price may be affected by supply and demand changes. Short - term risks need attention [43][44]. - **PTA**: The price of PTA rose. The supply is in the maintenance season, and the demand is improving. The price is expected to oscillate at the current valuation [45]. - **Para - xylene**: The price of para - xylene rose. It is in the maintenance season, and the inventory is expected to decrease. The price is expected to oscillate at the current valuation [46]. - **Polyethylene**: The price of polyethylene was flat. The supply is expected to increase, and the price is expected to oscillate [47][48]. - **Polypropylene**: The price of polypropylene rose. The supply is stable, and the demand is seasonal. The price is expected to be volatile and bearish [49]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The price of hogs was stable. The short - term price may be stable, and the medium - term is bearish. It is recommended to sell on rallies [51]. - **Eggs**: The price of eggs was stable or decreased. The supply is increasing, and the price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to sell on rallies for near - month contracts [52]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The price of soybean meal was volatile. The short - term supply is large, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile [53][55]. - **Oils and Fats**: The price of oils and fats was affected by multiple factors. The price is expected to be weak and volatile [56][58]. - **Sugar**: The price of sugar oscillated. The international supply is improving, and the domestic price may weaken [59]. - **Cotton**: The price of cotton rose. The market confidence is boosted, and the price is expected to be strong and volatile in the short term [60][61].