Market Overview - The market trading volume remains at a medium-low level, with stock rotation occurring rapidly under the influence of existing funds [1] - Major indices showed slight declines this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.57%, Shenzhen Index down 0.46%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.47% [2] - The North Exchange 50 index experienced a significant drop of 3.68%, indicating a notable decline in micro-cap stocks [2] - The trading volume for micro-cap stocks approached the highest level since December 2023, indicating a crowded trading environment [2] Interest Rate Impact - On May 20, the central bank lowered the 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) by 10 basis points, resulting in rates of 3% and 3.5% respectively [3] - Major state-owned banks collectively reduced deposit rates, with 1-year fixed deposits falling below 1% and 5-year deposits below 1.5% [3] - The decline in risk-free rates is expected to increase the value of companies, particularly those with high dividend yields [3] Investment Opportunities - High-quality assets are defined by several criteria: high profitability/dividend certainty, industry leadership with high barriers to entry, low PE ratios (below 20 or even 10), and a revenue structure primarily focused on domestic markets [3] - The current market environment suggests a potential style shift from small-cap to large-cap stocks, benefiting high-quality assets [3][4] - Investors are advised to focus on certainty in uncertain markets, with a preference for companies that have stable operating performance and dividends [4]

Group 1 - Major commercial banks have lowered RMB deposit rates, with the one-year fixed deposit rate falling below 1% for the first time, sparking discussions on investment and financial planning in a low-interest-rate environment [2] - The market had anticipated this decline in deposit rates, as the need for monetary policy to stimulate the economy and stabilize the housing market continues, leading to a decrease in loan rates and a historical low net interest margin of 1.43% for commercial banks [2] - The ongoing trend of declining interest rates will significantly impact investment and financial planning strategies [4] Group 2 - In the current low-interest-rate environment, traditional financial products that guarantee returns, such as fixed deposits and certain insurance products, offer limited yields, making them less suitable for investors seeking substantial returns [4] - The capital market is experiencing an "asset shortage," where investors struggle to obtain returns that match the risks they are taking, leading to a need for a shift in investment strategy [6] - A recommended investment approach is to extend the investment horizon and focus on long-term value growth, aligning with the national encouragement for "patient capital" to support new productive forces and high-quality development in the capital market [6] Group 3 - Options for investing as "patient capital" include investing in stocks or funds with a long-term perspective, avoiding short-term trading, and maintaining emotional stability during market fluctuations [8] - Another option is to purchase participating insurance, allowing insurance companies, which are skilled in long-term investments, to manage assets while ensuring capital preservation and potential high returns from economic recovery [8]

证券研究报告 固收 沿着债市定价体系找机会 华泰研究 2025 年 5 月 25 日│中国内地 利率周报 研究员 张继强 SAC No. S0570518110002 SFC No. AMB145 zhangjiqiang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 研究员 吴宇航 SAC No. S0570521090004 wuyuhang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 研究员 仇文竹 SAC No. S0570521050002 qiuwenzhu@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 联系人 欧阳琳 SAC No. S0570123070159 ouyanglin@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 联系人 朱逸敏 SAC No. S0570124070133 zhuyimin@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 与信贷等广谱利率对比：债市定价基本合理 债券与存贷款之间会通过比价效应和机构行为传导。但本次 LPR 下调后， 一些银行通过减少加点幅度，仍维持新增按揭贷款 3%的原利率。如果 3% 是房贷利率的 ...

REITs 业 研 试点持有型不动产 ABS 扩募，消费 REITs 表现持续 优异 2025 年 05 月 25 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 沪深300 中证REITs全收益 相关研究报告 《地方政策积极支持公募 REITs 产 品发行，消费 REITs 表现持续优异 —行业周报》-2025.5.18 duzhiyuan@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790124070064 试点持有型不动产 ABS 扩募，消费 REITs 表现持续优异 2025 年第 21 周，中证 REITs（收盘）指数为 869.19，同比上涨 9.27%，环比上 涨 1.19%；中证 REITs 全收益指数 1089.72，同比上涨 16.22%，环比上涨 1.2%。 本周 REITs 市场交易规模成交量达 6.87 亿份，同比增长 44.33%；成交额达 31.21 亿元，同比增长 57.95%；区间换手率 3.58%，同比下降 6.77%。本周保障房、环 保、高速公路、产业园区、仓储物流、能源、消费类 REI ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2][5] Core Viewpoints - The market for REITs is expected to continue to perform well due to supportive policies and the anticipated entry of social security and pension funds, enhancing the cost-effectiveness of allocations in this sector [5][6] - The market trading volume for REITs reached 687 million shares, a year-on-year increase of 44.33%, with a transaction value of 3.121 billion yuan, up 57.95% year-on-year [5][28] - The China Securities REITs (closing) index rose to 869.19, a year-on-year increase of 9.27% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.19% [5][16] Summary by Sections 1. REITs Role and Expansion - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes the need for a diversified funding mechanism for urban renewal projects, highlighting the role of REITs in infrastructure investment [6][14] 2. Market Review - The China Securities REITs (closing) index increased by 1.19% quarter-on-quarter, with a cumulative increase of 14.91% since the beginning of 2024, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.76% [16][21] - The China Securities REITs total return index rose by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter, with a cumulative increase of 26.45% since the beginning of 2024, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index by 13.3% [21][26] 3. Weekly Performance - Weekly performance for various REIT sectors showed mixed results, with consumer REITs increasing by 1.04% and a monthly increase of 7.58% [39][56] - The weekly and monthly performance for other sectors included: affordable housing (+0.83% weekly, +6.32% monthly), environmental (-0.05% weekly, -0.03% monthly), and logistics (+1.58% weekly, +5.81% monthly) [39][56] 4. Active Market for New REITs - There are currently 14 REIT funds awaiting listing, indicating a vibrant issuance market [8][39] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the industry, suggesting favorable conditions for investment in REITs [5][39]

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of rental housing REITs has shown significant excess returns, supported by rental price advantages and demand from end consumers, indicating a strong potential for stable operations through 2025 [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Huatai Suzhou Hengtai Rental Housing REIT triggered trading halts twice within its first week of listing due to high price increases, reaching 3.554 yuan per share and 3.909 yuan per share, respectively [2][3]. - The REITs market has demonstrated strong performance, with six rental housing REITs showing monthly increases of over 18% since the second half of 2024, peaking at a 47% increase in January 2025 [4][7]. Group 2: Investment Demand - The Huatai Suzhou Hengtai Rental Housing REIT saw an unprecedented oversubscription of 222.64 times during its issuance phase, indicating strong investor interest [3][4]. - The demand for rental housing REITs is driven by a combination of stable rental income, low-risk profiles, and favorable regulatory support, making them attractive to institutional investors [4][6]. Group 3: Underlying Asset Value - The underlying assets of leading REITs are concentrated in prime business districts and high-tech industrial zones, enhancing their core value due to their unique locations [6]. - The operational efficiency of these REITs is notable, with average occupancy rates maintained between 92% and 97%, significantly higher than industry averages [6][7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The potential for further expansion in the rental housing REITs sector is widely recognized, with predictions indicating that the overall issuance scale could exceed 25 billion yuan by 2025 [7]. - The market for rental housing REITs is expected to remain active, driven by a continuous influx of new assets and the need for original stakeholders to monetize their investments [7].

Group 1 - The first batch of pilot reforms for long-term investment of insurance funds is set at 50 billion, the second batch at 112 billion, and a third batch of 60 billion is pending approval, totaling 222 billion [1] - The total scale of insurance funds is projected to reach 34.93 trillion by the end of 2024, with an average annual growth rate of 16% [1] - The unique operational logic of insurance funds, characterized by long-term and stable attributes, significantly influences asset allocation strategies and has a profound impact on the development of the stock market [1] Group 2 - The primary issue in the Chinese stock market is the short-term nature of funding, which leads to volatility, while the long-term nature of insurance funds effectively addresses this problem [2] - The combination of insurance funds and other long-term capital is expected to transform the short-term funding characteristics of the Chinese stock market, potentially leading to a new phase of stable and healthy development [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since 2021, the logic of the "asset shortage" in the bond market is not applicable this year. Instead, the bond market presents a "liability shortage." The liability gap and structure are the main lines of bond market trading this year [2][5][12]. - The bond market is unlikely to rise trend - wise. Only continuous negative carry can drive the trend - wise correction of long - term interest rates. The probability of a tightening of capital prices in the second quarter is not high, and the market interest rate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1.5% - 1.6% [2][8][22]. - The bond market has no obvious odds recently. A 10bp positive carry can boost the inter - bank bond market leverage ratio by about 0.1 - 0.2 percentage points. The current positive carry amplitude is insufficient, restricting the market's enthusiasm for leveraging [2][8][30]. - It is recommended to allocate when the 10 - year Treasury bond yield is above 1.65% and the 30 - year Treasury bond yield is above 1.9%. Institutions with stable liabilities can appropriately focus on the coupon opportunities of credit bonds with a term of more than 3 years [2][8][34]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 From "Asset Shortage" to "Liability Shortage", Bond Market Volatility - Before 2024, the "asset shortage" was the main line of the bond market. Due to the downward pressure on the real estate industry and the establishment of the regulatory red line for local implicit debt, credit expansion was constrained. Since this year, with the adjustment of the social financing structure and the relative stability of credit, the "asset shortage" is no longer the main contradiction. The supply of government bonds has increased, and the social financing growth rate has rebounded to 8.7% in April [5][12]. - While the asset supply has increased, the bond market faces a "liability shortage." The central bank's attitude is not the only source of liability pressure. Currently, the market style is more trading - oriented, lacking stable - liability configuration forces. Insurance's premium income growth has declined significantly this year, and its trading attribute has increased; wealth management is undergoing rectification, reducing the allocation of less - liquid credit bonds; public funds have a strong wait - and - see sentiment [8][19]. 3.2 Difficulty in Trend - wise Market, Focus on Curve Trading Opportunities - The bond market is difficult to rise trend - wise. In a relatively stable fundamental situation, only continuous negative carry can drive the trend - wise correction of long - term interest rates. The current fundamental situation is relatively stable, but the real interest rate is high, and there is still uncertainty in the fundamental recovery. The probability of a tightening of capital prices in the second quarter is not high [8][22]. - The bond market has no obvious odds recently. Although the bond market has returned to the positive carry range, the amplitude is insufficient, restricting the market's enthusiasm for leveraging. A 10bp increase in carry can increase the inter - bank bond market leverage ratio by 0.14 and 0.21 percentage points respectively. Since May, the average monthly inter - bank bond market leverage ratio has increased by about 0.2 percentage points compared with April [8][30]. - Before the bond market shows sufficient odds, it is difficult to have a trend - wise market. It is expected that the 10 - year Treasury bond yield will fluctuate around 1.6% - 1.7%. It is recommended to capture trading opportunities along the yield curve. Institutions with stable liabilities can focus on the coupon opportunities of credit bonds with a term of more than 3 years [8][34].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the insurance industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - As of the end of Q1 2025, the balance of insurance funds reached 34.9 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.7% [2] - The bond market saw rising yields, prompting insurance companies to increase their bond investments, with the balance of bond allocations for life insurance companies reaching 16.1 trillion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of over 1 trillion yuan, marking a historical high of over 51% [2][19] - In the context of "asset scarcity," insurance companies are expanding investment channels to stabilize medium to long-term investment returns, with a positive outlook on long-duration bonds and high-dividend stocks [2][19] Summary by Sections Bond Market - In Q1 2025, the bond market interest rates rose, attracting insurance capital to increase long-term bond allocations [3] - The 10-year and 30-year government bond yields increased by 20.5 basis points and 18.3 basis points respectively since the beginning of the year [3] Equity Market - Equity assets have become crucial for insurance companies to enhance returns, with life insurance companies' stock holdings reaching 2.65 trillion yuan and long-term equity investments at 2.60 trillion yuan, together accounting for over 16% of total investments [5] - The top ten heavily weighted industries saw significant increases in holdings, except for real estate, which saw a year-on-year decrease of 28.1% [6] Investment Allocation - Life insurance companies increased their bond allocation to 16.06 trillion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter growth of 6.7%, while property insurance companies' bond allocation reached 909.3 billion yuan, a 4.6% increase [10] - The allocation of stocks for life and property insurance companies reached 8.4% and 7.6% respectively, both marking recent highs [19] Long-term Investment Strategies - The expansion of long-term stock investment trials is expected to bring stable medium to long-term incremental funds to the capital market, with a focus on high-quality listed companies in both domestic and Hong Kong markets [12][13] - The insurance industry is actively increasing its allocation to long-term bonds and high-dividend stocks to optimize asset-liability management [10][19]

| I C E H Ho | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 日博策略参 | | | | 发布日期:2025/05 | | 行业板块 趋势研判 品种 | | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | | 随着市场对关税冲击的波动与政策护盘动能趋于衰减,加上当前 | | 股指 震荡 | | 反弹已至区间上沿,在缺乏增量催化因素的背景下,短期或转入 | | | | 震荡整固阶段,策略上、短线多单考虑冲高止盈, 警惕调整风险 | | 宏观金融 震荡 | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | | 国债 | | 空间。 | | 賣金 農汤 | | 多空交织，短期金价或盘整震荡;但中长期上涨逻辑尚未改变。 | | 白银 震荡 | C B | 跟随黄金宽幅震荡, 但中期上方空间有限。 | | 看空 第四 | | 近期国内外宏观数据偏弱压制市场风险偏好,叠加铜下游需求有 | | | | 所转弱,铜价短期偏弱运行。 | | 農汤 | | 近期电解铝低库存对铝价仍有支撑,但随着铝价走高,上行空间 | | | | 受限,预计近期震荡运行。 | | 氢化 ...