日度报告——综合晨报 4 月经济数据同比回落 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-05-20 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美联储官员频频为降息泼冷水 特朗普和普京的谈话结束，特朗普表态俄乌立刻谈判，但是分 歧存在的情况下，预计难以实现。 宏观策略（股指期货） 中国 4 月经济数据同比回落 综 4 月份经济数据同比增速回落，反映出外部冲击和内需走弱的双 重压力。下一阶段政策应竭力呵护房地产市场，持续巩固"止 跌回稳"态势，缓解居民资产收缩压力，释放消费潜力。 合 农产品（豆粕） 晨 美豆种植率高于预期 报 巴西 CNF 升贴水继续下降，国内进口大豆成本随之下行。随着 进口大豆到港及油厂开机增加，上周豆粕库存继续小幅上升， 昨日沿海豆粕现货报价以下跌为主。 有色金属（铜） 中国 4 月未锻轧铜及铜材进口量同比增加 0.2% 短期美元指数承压运行而支撑铜价，但国内基本面阶段转弱预 期升温而抑制铜价，总体上，铜价短期震荡偏弱运行可能性更 大。 能源化工（原油） 欧盟或向 G7 提议将俄罗斯石油价格上限降至 50 美元/桶 油价窄幅波动。 | 杨云兰 | 高级分析师 （农产品） | | --- | -- ...

通胀风险仍存，黄金避险需求未消！现货黄金昨日反弹逾百美元，今日再次回落，近期的调整或给多头 带来中长期入场机会？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent US-China Geneva talks have led to significant tariff reductions, which have lowered the risk of a US economic recession. However, the effective tariff rate of 15.5% remains elevated compared to last year's 2.4%, indicating that inflation risks are not fully alleviated [1][4]. Economic Impact of Tariff Reductions - Following the tariff reductions, the effective tariff rate in the US is projected to decrease from 28.4% to 15.5%, significantly reducing recession risks. This reduction alleviates the pressure on import costs, restores consumer confidence, and lowers the risks of corporate layoffs and bankruptcies, thereby stabilizing overall economic demand [4]. - Despite the reduction, the retained 10% baseline tariff on most countries will continue to exert supply-side pressure, potentially leading to a 0.73 percentage point decline in the US GDP growth rate by 2025 compared to a scenario without tariffs. This impact is a significant improvement from the previously estimated 1.4 percentage point decline [4]. - The unemployment rate may rise by an additional 0.5 percentage points in 2025 due to the economic slowdown, although the increase may be less pronounced than in previous years due to a reduced influx of labor supply [4]. Inflation Risks - The increase in the effective tariff rate compared to last year, combined with the depreciation of the US dollar, continues to exert upward pressure on the prices of imported goods. The significant rise in tariff revenue in April indicates that businesses and consumers will still bear the cost of tariffs [6]. - Recent CPI data showed lower-than-expected inflation primarily due to a decline in service prices, but certain goods, such as entertainment products and appliances, have seen price increases. For instance, audio equipment prices rose by 8.8% [6][7]. - Historical patterns suggest that price increases typically occur 2-3 months after tariffs are fully implemented, indicating that the current inflation data may not yet reflect the full impact of the new tariffs [7]. Federal Reserve's Stance - The Federal Reserve is currently more focused on inflation risks rather than recession risks. The recent tariff reductions have lessened recession concerns but have not completely eliminated inflation risks, prompting the Fed to adopt a wait-and-see approach [9]. - The Fed has postponed its interest rate cut predictions to the fourth quarter, with expectations of a reduction of less than 50 basis points for the year. This is a shift from earlier predictions of a more aggressive cut if tariffs remained high [9]. Potential Risks - There are two main risks to the current predictions: potential changes in tariff policies that could reignite recession fears and weak demand leading to lower oil prices and service inflation, which could offset the inflationary pressures from tariffs [10].

Core Viewpoint - Newmont Corporation is positioned as a strong investment opportunity due to its robust financial performance, strategic asset management, and favorable market conditions for gold, driven by economic uncertainty and rising gold prices [1][10]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Newmont's net income surged to $1.9 billion, over ten times the amount from the same period last year, with adjusted earnings per share at $1.25, exceeding analyst expectations [3]. - Free cash flow reached $1.2 billion, marking a significant achievement despite a production decline to 1.54 million ounces due to recent asset sales [3]. - The total sustaining cost per ounce was $1,651, but the net profit margin improved, with the revenue-cost gap remaining well above $1,000 per ounce [3]. Asset Management - Newmont has strategically divested six smaller, less profitable mines, generating over $4 billion in cash, and is now focusing on 11 long-life, lower-cost mines [1][4]. - The company has a strong balance sheet with $4.7 billion in cash and total debt of $7.5 billion, resulting in a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 0.3 [3][4]. Growth Prospects - Newmont anticipates a total production of 5.6 million ounces for 2025, with over half expected in the second half of the year, driven by projects like Ahafo North in Ghana and the Tanami expansion in Australia [7]. - The company aims to increase production to 6.4 million ounces annually by 2027, supported by the expansion of the Cadia mine and growing global demand for precious metals [7]. Market Conditions - Economic uncertainty, inflation risks, and geopolitical tensions are driving demand for gold, with prices soaring to $3,325 per ounce [1]. - Newmont's diversified operations, including increased copper production post-Newcrest acquisition, reduce operational risks and align with global electrification trends [7][8]. Valuation and Returns - Newmont's forward P/E ratio is approximately 13, with an EBITDA multiple of about 6.4, indicating attractive valuation compared to peers [10][11]. - The company offers a dividend yield of around 2%, with potential for increase if gold prices remain high, alongside an ongoing stock buyback program [10].

Group 1 - The international gold market experienced a significant drop on May 12, 2025, with London spot gold prices falling over 2% to a low of $3217.1 per ounce, marking a nearly one-month low [1] - The decline was attributed to multiple negative factors, including geopolitical risks, a strong dollar, and changes in market sentiment [2][3] - The U.S. dollar index rose to 100.63, creating direct pressure on gold prices, while expectations for the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance increased following strong economic indicators [2][3] Group 2 - Geopolitical tensions eased, leading to a decrease in gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, with funds previously flowing into gold now moving towards riskier assets like stocks [2] - The technical breakdown of key support levels triggered programmatic selling, exacerbating the decline in gold prices [3] - The largest gold ETF saw a reduction in holdings by 5.2 tons, indicating a retreat of speculative funds from the gold market [3] Group 3 - Despite short-term pressures, the long-term investment value of gold remains solid, supported by ongoing central bank purchases and a deepening trend of de-dollarization [3] - In Q1 2025, global central banks net purchased 289 tons of gold, with China's reserves surpassing 2200 tons, highlighting gold's role in stabilizing prices [3] - Goldman Sachs maintains a year-end target price of $3700 for gold, with potential extreme scenarios suggesting prices could reach $4500 [3]

周一，日本30年期国债收益率大幅攀升5个基点至2.955%，创下近25年来的最高水平，并逼近历史峰值。 自特朗普4月初升级关税威胁以来，日本债券市场持续遭受动荡。投资者面临着日益复杂的风险组合。 一方面，关税政策对经济构成威胁，削弱了日本央行近期加息的可能性，这使短期债券相对更具吸引力。另一方面，关税政策提高了通胀风险， 降低了超长期债券的投资价值。 日本10年期债券最近的销售录得自2021年以来最疲弱的需求。投资者对周二即将举行的30年期债券拍卖也保持谨慎态度。 "超长期债券市场正在发生不可逆转的结构性变化，30年期收益率不一定会在3%水平停止上涨，"野村证券执行利率策略师Mari Iwashita表示： "在日本央行减少国债购买、寿险公司需求下降等重大趋势转变中，特朗普的关税政策导致美国债券市场动荡，也扰乱了超长期债券的 供需平衡。" 日债市场陷入动荡，长期收益率飙升 5与12日周一，市场风险偏好明显上升。根据商务部的声明，本次中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展，大幅降低双边关税水平，美方取消了共计 91%的加征关税，中方相应取消了91%的反制关税；美方暂停实施24%的"对等关税"，中方也相应暂停实施24%的 ...

贵金属产业日报 2025-05-08 研究员: 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F3082507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 点，当前利率期货显示今年仍有3次降息空间。在此背景下，美元指数和长端美债收益率或维持相对承压态 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价(日,元/克) | 790.78 | -12.72 沪银主力合约收盘价(日,元/千克) | 8094 | -158 | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 198555 | 10247 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 228462 | -1892 | | | 沪金主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 107220 | 2768 沪银主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 127151 | -2783 | | | 仓单数量:黄金(日,千克) | 15648 | 0 仓单数量:白银(日,千克) | 931982 | -8999 | | 现货市场 | 上海有色网黄金现货价(日,元/克) | 801.9 ...

"新美联储通讯社"Nick Timiraos：美联储官员在考虑重点是就业的风险还是通胀的风险。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：失业率上升和通胀风险已增加。 ...

证券研究报告 | 海外市场点评 2025 年 05 月 06 日 [Table_Main] 海外市场点评 证券分析师 薛威 资格编号：S0120523080002 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 谭诗吟 资格编号：S0120523070007 积极信号有望释放 ——美联储 5 月利率决议前瞻 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 邮箱：tansy＠tebon.com.cn 背景：美东时间 5 月 7 日（北京时间 5 月 8 日凌晨），美联储将公布 5 月利率决 议。从目前的 CME 联邦基金期货模型来看，市场预期 5 月按兵不动的概率为 95%， 由于美国经济尚具有一定韧性，关税带来的影响目前从就业与通胀角度看尚不显 著，联储预计会保留足够的政策灵活性，以应对未来的较大不确定性。 焦点：联储如何评价经济形势？关注鲍威尔发布会言论。当前美国经济数据显示出 温和转弱的特征，但尚未显示出衰退迹象。联邦政府和从事 ToG 相关业务企业在 4 月的大规模裁员并未明显体现在非农数据上，PMI 数据也维持较强势的状态，但 后续谈判进度存在较大的不确定性，一旦谈判 ...