source： 南华研究,同花顺 聚丙烯套保策略表 | 行为 | 情景分析 | 现货 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖 | 套保比例(%) | 建议入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 导向 | | 敞口 | | | 方向 | | 场区间 | | 库存 管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心 聚丙烯价格下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情 况，做空聚丙烯期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生 产成本 | PP2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 7050-7 100 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低成本，若聚丙烯价 格上涨还可以锁定现货卖出价格 | PP2509C7000 | 卖出 | 50% | 50-100 | | 采购 管理 | 采购常备库存偏低，希 望根据订单情况进行采 | | 为了防止聚丙烯价格上涨而抬升采购成本，可以 在目前阶段买入聚丙烯期货，在盘面采购来提前 | PP2509 | 买入 | 50% | 6800-6 900 | | | | 空 | 锁定采购成本 | | | | | | | 购 | | ...

苹果产业风险管理日报 2025/06/10 边舒扬（投资咨询证号：Z0012647 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 苹果价格区间预测 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | | 7300-7900 | 10.5% | 10.8% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 苹果风险管理策略建议 | | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工 | 买卖方 | 套保比例（%） 建议入场区 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 口 | | 具 | 向 | | 间 | | 库存管 | 担心全国新苹果丰产，苹果收购价 过低 | 多 | 为了防止新季库存叠加损失，可以根据企业自身情况，做空苹果期货 来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | AP251 0 | 卖出 | 50% | 7600-7650 | | 采购管 | 担心旧作苹果库存下降，而新季苹 果减产，苹果收购价过高 | 空 | 为了防止苹果价格上涨而抬升采购成本，可以在目 ...

白糖产业风险管理日报 2025/06/10 边舒扬（投资咨询证号：Z0012647 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 白糖近期价格区间预测 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | | 5600-5800 | 6.45% | 1.6% | source： 南华研究,wind,同花顺 白糖风险管理策略建议 | 行为 | 情景分析 | 现货 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 导向 | | 敞口 | | | 方向 | | 场区间 | | 库存 管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心 糖价下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存 情况，做空郑糖期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的 生产成本 | SR2507 | 卖出 | 25% | 5800-58 50 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低成本，若糖价上 涨还可以锁定现货卖出价格 | SR509C6000 ...

Group 1: Company Overview - Nanhua Capital completed its first over-the-counter options transaction for casting aluminum alloy, showcasing its rapid response capability and innovative advantages in industrial financial services [1] - Shuaiyichi New Materials Group Co., Ltd. focuses on the research, production, and sales of green, low-carbon recycled aluminum alloy materials, with a maximum annual production capacity of 1 million tons and over 400,000 tons of recycled aluminum utilized annually [2] - Nanhua Futures (603093) is a leading comprehensive service provider of derivatives in China, committed to helping enterprises reduce costs and increase efficiency through the use of on-exchange and off-exchange derivative tools [3] Group 2: Industry Insights - China is a major player in the global aluminum industry, with an estimated casting aluminum alloy (recycled) production capacity of approximately 13 million tons and a production volume of about 6.2 million tons in 2024, accounting for 26.2% of global output [3] - The industry faces structural challenges, including tight upstream scrap aluminum supply increasing costs and intense price competition in downstream products compressing profit margins, alongside demand contraction and high inventory levels [3] - The listing of casting aluminum alloy futures provides industry chain enterprises with more precise risk management tools, aiding in cost reduction and efficiency improvement [3]

Core Insights - The global energy landscape is undergoing significant transformation, with the importance of new and clean energy becoming more prominent in the context of "carbon peak" and "carbon neutrality" initiatives [2] - The "silicon energy" sector, which includes the polysilicon and organic silicon supply chains, plays a crucial role in China's dual carbon strategy, with industrial silicon being an essential raw material [2] - China is the largest producer, consumer, and exporter of industrial silicon globally, and the introduction of industrial silicon futures provides effective tools for managing price volatility [2] Industry Dynamics - Industrial silicon prices have experienced significant fluctuations due to various factors, directly impacting the pricing trends across the entire photovoltaic industry chain [2][3] - Seasonal price volatility is notable, with companies like X Trading typically purchasing large quantities during the peak season in August, which often leads to increased procurement costs [3] - The challenges faced by X Trading include tight cash flow and a lack of expertise in hedging strategies, which have resulted in financial losses [3] Risk Management Strategies - To address these challenges, a risk management subsidiary has provided tailored futures education and various hedging strategies, including "forward + cumulative short" models, to help companies reduce procurement costs and increase sales profits [4] - In August 2023, X Trading adopted an off-market forward strategy to mitigate rising procurement costs due to production limitations, successfully saving approximately 100,000 yuan [5] - The cumulative short option strategy allows X Trading to hedge against price declines while controlling costs, proving beneficial in a fluctuating market [6] Practical Applications - X Trading executed multiple cumulative short option transactions, resulting in a total profit increase of over 160,000 yuan from 800 tons of industrial silicon traded [11] - The fixed payout cumulative short option strategy, which does not have a knock-out feature, has been particularly effective in providing a broader compensation range for price declines [9][10] Educational Initiatives - Investor education is crucial for enabling companies to effectively utilize futures and options, as demonstrated by X Trading's transition from losses to proactive risk management [12] - The industrial silicon sector's characteristics necessitate flexible and personalized risk management tools, which can be achieved through tailored forward contracts and options [12] Broader Implications - The strategies developed for the industrial silicon sector can be replicated across other new energy metal industries, such as lithium, nickel, and cobalt, which also face significant price volatility [14] - Promoting futures tools to support the green industry chain can enhance China's influence in the global renewable energy pricing system, contributing to the achievement of global carbon neutrality goals [15] - The successful integration of futures derivatives with the real economy demonstrates the potential for market-driven solutions to address challenges in the green industry, encouraging further innovation in green futures products [16]

聚酯产业风险管理日报：长丝再传减产计划，EG偏弱运行 2025/06/09 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 周嘉伟（期货从业证号：F03133676） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 聚酯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 乙二醇 | 4150-4650 | 18.69% | 42.7% | | PX | 6300-6900 | 25.01% | 80.1% | | PTA | 4400-4900 | 23.92% | 71.7% | | 瓶片 | 5700-6250 | 19.33% | 63.7% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 聚酯套保策略表 聚酯产业链前期自中美联合声明出台以后，终端纺服订单恢复，下游情绪明显回暖，长丝库存大幅 去化，聚酯原料端在偏强的供需格局驱动下走势偏强，估值横向对比均处于偏高水平。目前来看，抢出口 实际对需求的提振不及预期，聚酯减产信号存在较大落地可能性，需求预期边际转弱下，聚酯板块成为资 金空配压估值的选择。紧张的 ...

南华期货沥青风险管理日报 2025年6月9日 凌川惠（投资咨询证号：Z0019531） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 沥青价格区间 | 品种 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沥青主力合约 | 3400-3600 | 15.15% | 17.58% | source： wind,南华研究,同花顺 沥青风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方向 套保比例（%） 建议入场区间 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心沥青价 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做 | bu2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 3500-3600 | | | 格下跌 | | 空沥青期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | | | | | | 采购管理 | 采购常备库存偏低，希望根据 | 空 | 为了防止沥青价格上涨而 ...

日报 . 烧碱产业风险管理日报 2025/06/09 寿佳露（投资咨询证号：Z0020569） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 烧碱价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 烧碱 | 2300-2600 | 25.84% | 63.9% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 烧碱风险管理策略建议 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担心烧碱价格下 | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空烧碱期货来锁定利 润，弥补企业的生产成本 | SH2509 | 卖出 | 50% | 2600-265 0 | | 理 | 跌 | | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低成本，若烧碱上涨还可以锁定现货卖出价格 ...

"当前我国铜产业链呈现'原料进口紧缺、冶炼内卷严重、加工生存困难'的窘境。" 今年以来，铜价呈现"过山车"行情，其中沪铜期货主力合约创出阶段性新高后陡坡下行，有所反弹后维 持震荡行情。 国信期货首席分析师顾冯达分析称，未来一个月，铜价预计将在7.5万至8.3万元/吨区间波动，铜价高位 偏强震荡为主，整体抗跌性强，中长期来看铜价重心异涨难跌，关注全球政治经贸及供应链调整等潜在 风险。 从铜产业链的情况来看，顾冯达认为，当前我国铜产业链呈现"原料进口紧缺、冶炼内卷严重、加工生 存困难"的窘境。2025年中国铜企转型的核心特征可概括为产业转型升级、风险管理常态化。 金田股份（601609.SH）高级副总裁郑敦对第一财经记者称，该公司近几年两条腿走路，一方面在传统 赛道中，不断提高技术，推动产业往高端方向发展，另一方面在国家支持和鼓励的战略新兴赛道加大布 局力度，这部分的业务占比大幅上升。同时，为降低铜价带来的风险，根据订单和生产需求进行套期保 值。 季先飞也称，现在整个铜产业链从冶炼到终端消费，都处于压低利润的状态，冶炼方面若按照加工费来 计算，已经处于亏损状态，铜材加工企业的利润也较低，终端企业也不断往前端压价格 ...

Core Insights - The event "Financial Empowerment for Enterprises Going Global" was held in Shanghai, focusing on enhancing cross-border financial services and supporting enterprises in international markets [1] Group 1: Policy Initiatives - The People's Bank of China, along with other regulatory bodies, issued an action plan to enhance cross-border financial service convenience in Shanghai, addressing diverse financial needs [3] - Yangpu District released measures to promote high-quality development in science and technology finance, including 20 specific initiatives across five key areas [3] - The district aims to support international technology innovation and online new economy sectors with 15 unique measures, including establishing the "Yangfan" AEO enterprise service [3] Group 2: Financial Services and Solutions - Bank of China Shanghai Branch introduced a "24/7 Direct Account" service for whitelist enterprises, allowing for immediate foreign exchange transactions and improving capital efficiency [4] - A guarantee fund model was introduced to reduce the cash deposit ratio for enterprises, enhancing customs clearance efficiency amid tariff fluctuations [4] - The Shanghai Municipal Financial Office provided a detailed interpretation of the action plan's strategic goals and key tasks [4] Group 3: Risk Management and Support - The China Foreign Exchange Trading Center emphasized the importance of exchange rate risk management and provided case studies on risk management tools [4] - Yangpu Customs shared initiatives for AEO credit cultivation, offering preferential treatment to support the high-quality development of foreign trade enterprises [5] - Xtransfer highlighted the role of cross-border payment solutions in facilitating global transactions for foreign trade enterprises [6] Group 4: Future Directions - Yangpu District plans to further optimize the policy environment, enhance top-level design, and promote cross-border investment and financing convenience [6] - The district aims to strengthen international financial cooperation and encourage innovation in cross-border financial products and services [6]