Report Industry Investment Rating - Unspecified Core Viewpoints - Propylene supply pressure is significantly increasing, with short - term fundamentals showing no obvious improvement. New capacity is being released, and downstream demand is weak. However, PP powder production profit has recovered [3]. - For polyolefins, the third round of Sino - US economic and trade talks may bring positive news. Supply pressure is increasing due to the restart of maintenance devices and new device production. Cost - side support is weak, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid replenishment [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - Includes charts of propylene main contract closing price, East China basis, North China basis, and 01 - 05 contract [10][13] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Charts show propylene CFR in China - naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production margin, PDH capacity utilization rate, MTO production margin, and methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate [19][27][29] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - Charts cover the price differences between South Korea FOB - China CFR, Japan CFR - China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR - China CFR, and propylene import profit [35][37] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - Charts display the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [43][45][48] 5. Propylene Inventory - Charts show propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [69] 6. Polyolefin Basis Structure - Includes charts of plastic futures main contract trend, LL East China - main contract basis, polypropylene futures main contract trend, and PP East China - main contract basis [70][74] 7. Polyolefin Production Profit and Operating Rate - Charts cover LL production profit (crude - oil - based), PE operating rate, PE weekly output, PE maintenance loss, PP production profit (crude - oil - based), PP production profit (PDH - based), PP operating rate, PP weekly output, and PDH - based PP capacity utilization rate [79][81][84] 8. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Charts show the price differences between HD injection - LL East China, HD blow - molding - LL East China, HD film - LL East China, LD East China - LL, PP low - melt copolymer - drawn wire East China, and PP homopolymer injection - drawn wire East China [94][101][102] 9. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - Charts include LL import profit, LL US Gulf FOB - China CFR, LL Southeast Asia CFR - China CFR, LL Europe FD - China CFR, PP import profit, PP export profit (to Southeast Asia), PP homopolymer injection US Gulf FOB - China CFR, PP homopolymer injection Southeast Asia CFR - China CFR, PP homopolymer injection Northwest Europe FOB - China CFR, and LL export profit [107][111][117] 10. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Profit - Charts show PE downstream agricultural film operating rate, PE downstream packaging film operating rate, PE downstream stretch film - LL - 2300, PP downstream woven bag operating rate, PP downstream BOPP operating rate, PP downstream injection molding operating rate, PP downstream woven bag production margin, and PP downstream BOPP production margin [127][128][134] 11. Polyolefin Inventory - Charts cover PE oil - based enterprise inventory, PE coal - chemical enterprise inventory, PE trader inventory, PE port inventory, PP oil - based enterprise inventory, PP coal - chemical enterprise inventory, PP trader inventory, and PP port inventory [136][140][144] Strategies - Unilateral: Neutral - Inter - period: PL01 - 05 reverse spread - Inter - variety: Long PL2601 and short PP2509 [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given documents. 2. Report's Core View - Both沪胶and合成胶are expected to run strongly.沪胶期货2509合约and合成胶期货2509合约are likely to maintain a volatile and strong trend on Wednesday [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Trend Information - **沪胶（RU）**: The 2509 contract of domestic沪胶期货slightly rose 0.73% to 15,085 yuan/ton on Tuesday night. It is expected to maintain a volatile and strong trend on Wednesday [5]. - **合成胶（BR）**: The domestic合成胶期货slightly rose 0.21% to 11,880 yuan/ton on Tuesday night. It is expected that the 2509 contract of合成胶期货will maintain a volatile and strong trend on Wednesday [7]. 3.2 Driving Logic - The core driving logic for both沪胶and合成胶is that the third - round economic and trade talks between China and the US were held in Sweden this week. After one - and - a - half days of negotiations, in - depth, candid and constructive exchanges were conducted on major issues of mutual concern. According to the consensus of both sides, they will continue to promote the extension of the 24% part of the suspended reciprocal tariffs by the US and China's counter - measures as scheduled. Although there are still differences between the two sides, the financial market expects that if the talks don't succeed, they can be postponed. In any case, the macro - sentiment will improve, creating a bullish atmosphere [5][7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Report's Core View - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to run strongly, with a short - term and intraday view of being oscillating and strong, and a medium - term view of being oscillating [1][5] 3. Summary by Related Content - **Price Movement and View** - The short - term view of methanol 2509 is oscillating and strong, the medium - term view is oscillating, the intraday view is oscillating and strong, and the reference view is to run strongly [1] - On Tuesday night, the domestic synthetic rubber futures slightly closed up 1.03% to 2442 yuan/ton, and it is expected that the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract may maintain an oscillating and strong trend on Wednesday [5] - **Core Logic** - This week, China and the US held the third round of economic and trade talks in Sweden. After a day - and - a - half negotiation, in - depth, candid and constructive exchanges were carried out on major issues of mutual concern. According to the consensus of both sides, they will continue to promote the extension of the 24% part of the suspended reciprocal tariffs by the US and China's counter - measures as scheduled. Although there are still differences between the two sides, the financial market expects that if the talks don't succeed, they can be postponed. The macro - sentiment will improve, and under the support of a bullish atmosphere, the methanol futures may show an oscillating and strong trend [5]

Group 1 - The Asia-Pacific stock markets experienced varying degrees of decline, with A-shares fluctuating between gains and losses, indicating a cautious atmosphere [1] - The recent decline is not due to panic but rather a rational warning from a savvy segment of investors who sense the risk of an overheated market, although the majority still believe the Chinese market is not overheated [1] - The foreign exchange market provided signals, with the US dollar index surging by 1%, equivalent to a 2%-3% increase in the stock market, indicating that risks are just beginning to emerge [1] Group 2 - The rise of the US dollar was largely driven by the sharp decline of the euro, which fell due to market distrust regarding the US-EU trade agreement, suggesting potential changes in the agreement should be monitored [1] - The initial relief regarding a 15% tax on Europe has turned pessimistic, as French and German leaders expressed concerns that this outcome would hinder economic growth, negatively impacting European stock markets and bond yields [1] - Investors are also focused on the US-China economic talks, which lasted over five hours in Stockholm, with significant market volatility expected around the announcement of the outcomes [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macroeconomically, the market anticipates that the China-US economic and trade talks will bring positive news; in terms of industry, the iron ore port inventory continues to rise, but the molten iron output remains at a high level, so there is still demand support. For the I2509 contract, be cautious when chasing high prices. Buying on dips can still be considered, and pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control. Also, it's advisable to buy call options opportunistically [7][50]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Highlights Summary a. Market Review - As of the close on July 25, the futures price of the main iron ore contract was 802.5 (+17.5) yuan/ton, and the price of Macfayden powder at Qingdao Port was 832 (+15) yuan/dry ton. - The global iron ore shipment volume increased by 122000 tons week-on-week. From July 14 to July 20, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 31.091 million tons, with an increase of 122000 tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 25.52 million tons, a decrease of 6800 tons. - The arrival volume at 47 ports in China decreased by 371400 tons. From July 14 to July 20, 2025, the total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 25.118 million tons, a decrease of 371400 tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 23.712 million tons, a decrease of 290900 tons; the total arrival volume at the six northern ports was 13.892 million tons, an increase of 241300 tons. - The molten iron output decreased by 210 tons. The average daily molten iron output was 2.4223 million tons, a decrease of 210 tons from last week and an increase of 2620 tons compared to the same period last year. - The port inventory increased by 14170 tons. As of July 25, 2025, the imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China was 143.9568 million tons, an increase of 14170 tons week-on-week and a decrease of 14.5226 million tons year-on-year. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 88.8522 million tons, an increase of 63060 tons week-on-week. - The profitability rate of steel mills was 63.64%, an increase of 3.47 percentage points from last week and an increase of 48.49 percentage points compared to the same period last year [5]. b. Market Outlook - Macro aspect: Overseas, the European Central Bank kept its three key interest rates unchanged, hitting the "pause button" on rate cuts for the first time after eight consecutive rate cuts since June last year. Trump said he was abandoning the idea of firing Powell. Domestically, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council stated that it should take the lead in resisting "involutionary" competition and strengthen restructuring and integration. The Ministry of Commerce announced that Vice Premier He Lifeng will go to Sweden for economic and trade talks with the US from July 27 to 30. - Supply and demand aspect: The iron ore shipment volume from Australia and Brazil increased, and the domestic port inventory continued to rise, but the year-on-year decline widened; the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills remained flat, and the molten iron output decreased slightly but remained above 2.4 million tons, so the demand support still exists. - Technical aspect: The iron ore I2509 contract is still in an upward channel, with the daily K-line moving average combination in a bullish arrangement; the MACD indicator shows that the upward momentum of DIFF and DEA has slowed down, and the red bars have shrunk. - Strategy suggestion: Considering the macro situation, the market expects positive news from the China-US economic and trade talks; in terms of the industry, the iron ore port inventory continues to rise, but the molten iron output remains at a high level, so there is still demand support. Be cautious when chasing high prices for the I2509 contract. Buying on dips can still be considered, and pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - This week, the I2509 contract rose and then pulled back. It performed weaker than the I2601 contract. On the 25th, the price difference was 30 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 2 yuan/ton. - This week, the iron ore warehouse receipts increased. On July 25, the warehouse receipt volume of iron ore at the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 3400 lots, a week-on-week increase of 400 lots. The net short position of the top 20 holders of the ore futures contract was 25163 lots, an increase of 21618 lots compared to the previous week. - This week, the spot price increased. On July 25, the 61% Australian Macfayden powder ore at Qingdao Port was reported at 832 yuan/dry ton, a week-on-week increase of 15 yuan/dry ton. This week, the spot price of iron ore was weaker than the futures price. On the 25th, the basis was 29 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 2 yuan/ton [13][19][25]. 3. Industry Situation - The total arrival volume at 47 ports in China decreased this period. From July 14 to July 20, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 31.091 million tons, an increase of 122000 tons; the iron ore shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 25.52 million tons, a decrease of 6800 tons. The shipment volume from Australia was 16.294 million tons, a decrease of 108900 tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 14.436 million tons, an increase of 13500 tons. The shipment volume from Brazil was 9.226 million tons, an increase of 102100 tons. The total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 25.118 million tons, a decrease of 371400 tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 23.712 million tons, a decrease of 290900 tons; the total arrival volume at the six northern ports was 13.892 million tons, an increase of 241300 tons. - The iron ore port inventory increased. This week, the total imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports was 143.9568 million tons, an increase of 14170 tons; the average daily port clearance volume was 3.2933 million tons, a decrease of 94300 tons. In terms of components, the Australian ore inventory was 63.0925 million tons, an increase of 88430 tons; the Brazilian ore inventory was 51.396 million tons, a decrease of 38630 tons; the trading ore inventory was 91.8357 million tons, a decrease of 9970 tons. The total imported iron ore inventory of steel mills was 88.8522 million tons, an increase of 63060 tons; the current daily consumption of imported ore by the sample steel mills was 3.011 million tons, a decrease of 150 tons; the inventory consumption ratio was 29.51 days, an increase of 0.22 days. - The available days of iron ore inventory for the sample steel mills increased this period. As of July 24, the average available days of imported iron ore inventory for domestic large and medium-sized steel mills was 21 days, an increase of 1 day. On July 24, the Baltic Dry Bulk Shipping Index BDI was 2258, a week-on-week increase of 206. - The iron ore import volume increased, and the mine capacity utilization rate was adjusted upward. According to customs data, in June 2025, China's iron ore and concentrate imports were 105.948 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%; from January to June, the imports were 592.205 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3%. As of July 25, the capacity utilization rate of 266 mines was 64.48%, an increase of 0.68%; the average daily concentrate output was 406800 tons, an increase of 4300 tons; the inventory was 410000 tons, a decrease of 44500 tons. - The domestic iron ore concentrate output declined. In June 2025, China's iron ore raw ore output was 88.97 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.4%. The iron concentrate output of 433 iron mine enterprises was 23.304 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 76200 tons, a decline of 3.2%; from January to June, the cumulative output was 137.753 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 11.932 million tons, a decline of 8.0% [28][31][34][38][41]. 4. Downstream Situation - From January to June, the crude steel output decreased year-on-year. In June 2025, China's crude steel output was 83.18 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.2%; from January to June, the output was 514.83 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.0%. In June, China's steel exports were 9.678 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 900000 tons, a decline of 8.5%; from January to June, the cumulative exports were 58.147 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%. In June, China's steel imports were 470000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 11000 tons, a decline of 2.3%; from January to June, the cumulative imports were 3.023 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 16.4%. - The blast furnace operating rate of steel mills increased, and the molten iron output decreased. On July 25, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.46%, the same as last week and an increase of 1.13 percentage points compared to last year; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.81%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points from last week and an increase of 1.20 percentage points compared to last year. The average daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 2.4223 million tons, a decrease of 210 tons from last week and an increase of 2620 tons compared to last year [44][47]. 5. Options Market - In the past two days, the ore price has pulled back from a high level, but the anti-involution expectation will continue to benefit the black series. Therefore, there is still a possibility of a rebound after the iron ore adjustment. It is recommended to buy call options opportunistically [50].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The National Development and Reform Commission will improve the institutional mechanism for the coordinated development of state - owned and private enterprises to enhance economic vitality and industrial competitiveness [2] - As of the end of June, the cumulative installed power generation capacity in China reached 3.65 billion kilowatts, with significant growth in solar and wind power, while the average utilization hours of power generation equipment decreased [2] - Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will go to Sweden from July 27th to 30th to hold economic and trade talks with the US, aiming to continue consultations on economic and trade issues [3] Section Summaries Hot News - On July 23rd, the National Development and Reform Commission held a corporate symposium on the coordinated development of state - owned and private enterprises [2] - As of the end of June, the cumulative installed power generation capacity in China was 3.65 billion kilowatts, solar power was 1.1 billion kilowatts, and wind power was 0.57 billion kilowatts [2] - He Lifeng will hold economic and trade talks with the US in Sweden from July 27th to 30th [3] - Trump's claim that reducing short - term interest rates would save $1 trillion in annual interest expenses is unlikely to be true [3] - US House Speaker Johnson is disappointed with Fed Chairman Powell, and he is unclear about the legal power to remove the Fed Chairman [3] Plate Performance - Key focus: Coking coal, soda ash, coke, methanol, pulp [4] - Night - session performance: Non - metallic building materials rose 2.55%, precious metals 29.66%, oilseeds 12.09%, etc. [4] Plate Positions - The document shows the position changes of commodity futures plates in the past five days, but specific data are not summarized here [5] Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.01% daily, 4.00% monthly, and 6.88% annually; the Hang Seng Index rose 1.62% daily, 6.09% monthly, and 27.31% annually, etc. [6] - Fixed - income: 10 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.11% daily, 0.34% monthly, and 0.37% annually [6] - Commodity: The CRB commodity index rose 0.02% daily, 2.21% monthly, and 2.40% annually; London spot gold fell 1.30% daily, rose 2.56% monthly, and 29.06% annually [6] - Others: The US dollar index fell 0.15% daily, rose 0.45% monthly, and fell 10.40% annually; the CBOE volatility index was flat daily, fell 1.37% monthly, and 4.90% annually [6]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Commerce announced that Vice Premier He Lifeng will hold trade talks with the US from July 27 to 30, following the consensus reached during the June 5 call between the two countries' leaders [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission stated that the Hainan Free Trade Port will officially start operations on December 18, 2025 [2] - The Ministry of Public Security emphasized that current "smart driving" systems in vehicles have not achieved full automation, and drivers remain responsible for safety [2] Group 2 - The Dalian Commodity Exchange issued a market risk warning regarding significant price fluctuations in coking coal and other commodities, urging members to enhance risk management [3] - The Supreme People's Court released an interpretation to protect the rights of homebuyers, expanding the scope of protection effective from July 24, 2025 [3] Group 3 - Guangzhou's government released a sports development plan aiming for national leadership by 2030, with goals including a 40% participation rate in sports and a sports industry value added to GDP of 2.2% [4] Group 4 - Han Jian He Shan reported no significant changes in its internal and external operating environment [6] - China Railway Industry confirmed that there are no undisclosed significant matters [7] - Dongfang Electric noted a significantly higher turnover rate than usual, indicating potential trading risks [8] - *ST Zhengping expressed uncertainty regarding participation in the Yaxia Hydropower Project [9] - Huaxin Cement also faces uncertainty in obtaining revenue from the Yaxia Hydropower Station construction [10] - Kailong Co. has uncertainty regarding its involvement in the Yaxia Hydropower Project [11] - ST Xifa, primarily engaged in the beer business, does not involve hydropower projects [12] - Dayu Water-saving stated that its related business does not currently involve the Yaxia Hydropower Project [13] - Liugang Co. has a rolling price-to-book ratio significantly above the average, indicating trading risks [14] - Watson Bio signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with Yuxi State-owned Capital Operation Company [15] - *ST Zitian faces a potential termination of its stock listing by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [15] - Beixin Road and Bridge's subsidiary won a highway project worth 1.629 billion yuan [15] - Everbright Bank's stake held by CITIC Financial Assets increased from 7.08% to 8% [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the policy support period, treasury bond futures showed divergent trends. The central bank's operations and policy adjustments aimed to boost credit, stabilize market expectations, and promote high - quality economic development. The progress of Sino - US trade negotiations affected market risk appetite, and the suspension of tariffs and export rush provided short - term support for domestic demand, which might delay the subsequent policy rhythm. In the context of capital disturbances, policy wait - and - see, and supply pressure in June, the bond market will maintain a short - term volatile and slightly strong pattern, and a clear policy signal is needed to break the situation [1][2][3] 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's monthly CPI had a month - on - month change of - 0.20% and a year - on - year change of - 0.10%; monthly PPI had a month - on - month change of - 0.40% and a year - on - year change of - 3.30%. Economic indicators (monthly updated): Social financing scale was 426.16 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.16 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.51%; M2 year - on - year was 7.90%, with a decrease of 0.10% and a decline rate of 1.25%; manufacturing PMI was 49.50%, with an increase of 0.50% and a growth rate of 1.02%. Economic indicators (daily updated): The US dollar index was 98.79, with a decrease of 0.06 and a decline rate of 0.06%; the offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 7.1932, with an increase of 0.005 and a growth rate of 0.07%; SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.52, with an increase of 0.02 and a growth rate of 1.26%; DR007 was 1.54, with an increase of 0.02 and a growth rate of 1.14%; R007 was 1.64, with a decrease of 0.12 and a decline rate of 6.66%; the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.60, with a decrease of 0.01 and a decline rate of 0.37%; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, with a decrease of 0.01 and a decline rate of 0.37% [7][8] 3.2 Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - The report presents multiple charts including the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each treasury bond futures variety, the maturity yield trend of treasury bonds with various terms, the valuation change of treasury bonds with various terms in the past day, the precipitation fund trend of each treasury bond futures variety, the position ratio of each treasury bond futures variety, etc [9][13][15] 3.3 Overview of the Money Market Fundamentals - The report shows multiple charts such as the bond lending turnover and the total position of treasury bond futures, the trading - to - position ratio of each treasury bond futures variety, the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds, the issuance of treasury bonds, the Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the transaction statistics of inter - bank repurchase with collateral, and the issuance of local government bonds [24][26][27] 3.4 Spread Overview - The report provides multiple charts including the inter - period spread trend of each treasury bond futures variety, the spread between the spot - bond term spread and the futures cross - variety spread (4*TS - T), the spread between the spot - bond term spread and the futures cross - variety spread (2*TS - TF), etc [32][35] 3.5 Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes charts of the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TS main contract and the fund interest rate, the nearly three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the nearly three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract [38][40][51] 3.6 Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report presents charts of the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TF main contract and the fund interest rate, the nearly three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the nearly three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract [47][50][53] 3.7 Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows charts of the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the T main contract and the fund interest rate, the nearly three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the nearly three - year net basis trend of the T main contract [58][60] 3.8 Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes charts of the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TL main contract and the fund interest rate, the nearly three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the nearly three - year net basis trend of the TL main contract [66][70][72]

Report Overview - The report is a data daily report on agricultural products by ITG Guomao Futures, written by Huang Xianglan from the Agricultural Products Research Center on June 11, 2025 [2][3] Core Viewpoints - The domestic soybean inventory continues to accumulate and is currently at a relatively high level compared to the same period. The soybean meal inventory is also increasing but remains at a low level. With the significant recovery of the oil mills' operation rate, it is expected that the soybean meal inventory will accumulate more rapidly in mid - to late June [6] - The soybean meal is expected to accumulate inventory, and the domestic basis is under pressure. As domestic ship - buying progresses, the M09 contract is expected to move in a volatile manner. Attention should be paid to the progress of the China - US economic and trade talks [6] Data Summary Basis Data - On June 10, the 43% soybean meal spot basis in Dalian was - 51, down 12; in Rizhao it was - 171, down 32; in Tianjin it was - 91, down 12; in Zhangjiagang it was - 151, down 32; in Dongguan it was - 181, down 22; in Zhanjiang it was - 141, down 22; and in Fangcheng it was - 151, down 32. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was - 199, down 15 [4] Spread Data - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 420, down 10; the futures spread of the main contract was 402, down 3 [5] International and Inventory Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.1367, up 2. The Brazilian soybean CNF premium was 177 cents per bushel. The domestic soybean inventory at ports and in major oil mills, as well as the soybean meal inventory and feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days, showed different trends over different time periods. The operation rate and soybean crushing volume of major oil mills also had their own trends [5] Supply and Demand Analysis Supply - The expected arrival volume of Brazilian soybeans in China in May, June, and July is over 10 million tons each month. The short - term planting weather of US soybeans shows no obvious abnormalities. However, in the US production area, Nebraska has had less precipitation recently, but there is no high - temperature combination, which needs further observation [5][6] Demand - Based on the inventory situation, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase steadily before September, and the poultry inventory remains at a high level. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has significantly improved, and downstream pick - up has improved [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Markit data shows that the May Caixin Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.3, indicating weak manufacturing demand, while the PMI rose slightly to 51.1, with new orders increasing and the employment index reaching a six - month high, but corporate profits are still affected by cost pressures [78]. - On the supply side, blast furnace hot metal production declined, and the weakening demand impacted steel mill profits. The supply of five major steel products decreased by 0.1% week - on - week, and the weekly output of rebar decreased by 70,000 tons [78]. - In terms of demand, the weekly apparent consumption of five major steel products decreased by 3.5% week - on - week, with building materials consumption down 5.9% and plate consumption down 2.0%. The inventory depletion speed has slowed down, and there may be inventory accumulation pressure in the future [78]. - Due to market information disturbances in the raw material market and the profit - taking of short - position funds, the coal - coke futures prices rebounded significantly, driving up the center of gravity of finished product prices. Short - term operations are recommended [78]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part 1: Review of Rebar Futures Market 3.1.1 Recent Important Information Overview - Economic data: From January to April 2025, national real estate development investment decreased by 10.3% year - on - year, and related indicators such as construction area, new construction area, and completion area also declined. The sales area and sales volume of new commercial housing decreased, and the funds in place for real estate development enterprises decreased by 4.1% year - on - year [7]. - In April 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1% year - on - year, and from January to April, it increased by 4.7%. The national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 4.0% year - on - year, and infrastructure investment increased by 5.8% [7]. - In April 2025, the national consumer price index decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the producer price index decreased by 2.7% year - on - year [7]. - The China - US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks reached a substantial agreement, with both sides reducing tariff levels. The US cancelled 91% of the additional tariffs, and China cancelled 91% of the counter - tariffs. Both sides suspended the implementation of 24% of the "reciprocal tariffs" [8]. 3.1.2 Rebar Main Contract Trend The SHIBOR rate decreased from 1.7450 on April 29, 2025, to 1.6200 on June 5, 2025, with a bullish outlook [20]. 3.2 Part 2: Futures Market Environment: Macro, Comparison, and Basis 3.2.1 Macro - Money Quantity The SHIBOR rate decreased month - on - month, indicating a bullish trend [20]. 3.2.2 Macro - Money Price No specific content provided. 3.2.3 Comparison - Domestic and Foreign No specific content provided. 3.2.4 Comparison - Other Commodities in the Industry Chain - The prices of rebar, hot - rolled coils, PB powder, metallurgical coke, and main coking coal in Shanghai and Qingdao were 3,120 yuan/ton, 3,210 yuan/ton, 734 yuan/ton, 1,340 yuan/ton, and 1,270 yuan/ton respectively. Their one - week, one - month, and one - year price changes varied [28]. 3.2.5 Rebar Main Contract Basis The basis (spot - futures) of rebar on June 5, 2025, was 131 yuan/ton, showing certain fluctuations in the recent period [31]. 3.3 Part 3: Overview of Rebar Spot Supply and Demand 3.3.1 Steel Mill Raw Material Inventory No specific content provided. 3.3.2 Blast Furnace Profits (for Various Steel Products) No specific content provided. 3.3.3 Blast Furnace Profits (Futures - Spot) No specific content provided. 3.3.4 Blast Furnace Operation The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel enterprises in China was 83.56% on June 6, 2025, slightly lower than 83.87% on May 30, 2025 [43]. 3.3.5 Electric Furnace Profits No specific content provided. 3.3.6 Electric Furnace Operation No specific content provided. 3.3.7 Daily Average Hot Metal Output No specific content provided. 3.3.8 Weekly Steel Output The total output of steel (including rebar, hot - rolled coils, wire rods, and medium - thick plates) on June 6, 2025, was 7.9162 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.024485822 and a week - on - week decrease of 0.001551365 [53]. 3.3.9 Weekly Rebar Output The weekly output of rebar on June 6, 2025, was 218,460 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 70,000 tons [78]. 3.3.10 Steel Mill Steel Inventory The steel mill steel inventory on June 6, 2025, was 5.1777 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.10339752 and a week - on - week increase of 0.009376949 [60]. 3.3.11 Steel Social Inventory No specific content provided. 3.3.13 Rebar Social Inventory No specific content provided. 3.3.14 Building Materials Transactions No specific content provided. 3.3.15 Consumption Indicator - Cement Price No specific content provided. 3.3.16 Downstream High - Frequency Data - Land Transaction Area No specific content provided. 3.3.17 Downstream High - Frequency Data - Real Estate Transactions No specific content provided. 3.4 Part 4: Future Outlook - The manufacturing demand is weak, and the supply of steel products has decreased slightly. The demand for steel products has declined, and the inventory depletion speed has slowed down. - Due to the rebound of coal - coke futures prices, the center of gravity of finished product prices has moved up. Short - term operations are recommended.