2025年A股银行股虽然继续稳健上涨，但幅度整体跑输大盘。结构性上涨和阶段性波动成为主要特征，与此同时，42只银行股总市值突破15万亿元大关，达 到15.7万亿元。 新华财经上海1月3日电（记者 王淑娟）刚过去的2025年，A股银行股虽然继续稳健上涨，但幅度整体跑输大盘。数据显示，42只A股银行股2025年走出 了"前高后低"的行情，结构性上涨和阶段性波动成为主要特征，银行（申万）指数年内涨幅为7%，跑输沪深300指数超10个百分点。与此同时，42只银行股 总市值突破15万亿元大关，达到15.7万亿元。 行情分行：整体跑输大盘，农行涨幅超50% 数据显示，2025年银行股行情从普涨转向结构性分化。回顾市场走势，银行股整体未能复制大盘强势上涨态势，因为跑输沪深300指数被调侃为"买银行股不 如买沪深300"，但最终还是交出了总市值高达15.7万亿元的靓丽成绩单。 具体按阶段来看，2025年银行股走出了"上半年上行、7至9月回调、10月后修复"的行情特征。2025年上半年，延续2024年勇夺行业涨幅第一的趋势，银行板 块开局走强。这期间，申万银行指数累计上涨13.1%，跑赢同期A股主要指数。以浦发银行为代表的股份 ...

经历3年的深度回调，2025年港股创新药市场在5月三生制药与辉瑞的48亿美元巨额BD催化下重返牛市。恒生医疗保健指数(800804)一路向上狂奔至9月，指 数最高达到4721.41点，涨幅达到102.76%。 在创新药牛市的激励下，港股市场对生物医药企业展现出了显著的吸引力，也成为业内企业今年寻求上市融资的重要平台。据智通财经APP统计，今年年内 共有27家医疗健康/生物技术企业在港市成功上市，且还有近10家公司在12月递交招股书。此外，港交所数据显示，目前仍有约300家企业排队候场，其中大 健康企业占比高达1/3。 值得一提的是，据港交所数据，2025年香港新股IPO市场融资额位居全球第一，累计募资总额突破2800亿港元。该募资金额不仅是上年募资金额的近三倍， 更刷新了最近四年来的新高。其中，恒瑞医药(01276)以113.74亿港元位列2025年港股IPO企业募资额前五。 | 排名 公司 | | 上市日期 | 募资总额(亿港元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 宁德时代 | 2025-05-20 | 410.06 | | 2 | | 紫金黄金国际 2025-09-30 ...

东方财富证券表示，中证A500指数是A股ETF跟踪规模第二大的宽基指数，行业与市值分布均衡、贴近 全A市场，兼具分散风险与全面映射中国经济的优势。其在电子、军工等新兴产业超配，自主可控成分 股权重高，凸显新质生产力特征；同时依托互联互通与ESG筛选、高境外营收占比，国际化属性突出。 指数核心财务指标优异、估值具备吸引力，且历史业绩展现出高弹性与抗跌性，是适配境内外中长期资 金、分享经济升级红利、参与中国资产重估和震荡慢牛进程的优质配置标的。 场内ETF方面，截至2025年12月31日收盘，中证A500指数下跌0.28%，A500ETF龙头(563800)换手 8.46%，成交18.34亿元。成分股方面涨跌互现，蓝色光标20cm涨停，烽火通信、航天电子10cm涨停； 北京君正领跌，信立泰、东方盛虹跟跌；前十大权重股合计占比20.04%。 宏观方面，12月31日，国家统计局公布数据显示，中国12月官方制造业PMI 50.1，为4月份以来首次升 至扩张区间，前值49.2。中国12月经济景气水平总体回升，三大指数均升至扩张区间，其中制造业产需 两端明显回升，大型企业PMI重返扩张区间。非制造业PMI景气度回升，服务业 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 31 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 银行业年度策略 高股息为盾，静待价值修复 相关研究： 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 | 相对收益 | -4.85 | 4.99 | -10.62 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对收益 | -2.10 | 5.22 | 5.69 | 分析师：郭怡萍 证书编号：S0500523080002 Tel：(8621) 50295327 Email：guoyp@xcsc.com 中国人寿金融中心10楼 核心要点： 市场回顾 今年银行板块行情节奏呈现"前强、中弱、后稳"的走势，主要反映从避 险主导到寻求增长的市场风格转换过程，以及资产风险预期的变化。 政策导向：宽松政策过渡期，金融支持实体经济 | 1. | 《2025年中期策略-价值重估仍 | | --- | --- | | 在进行时》 | 2025.07.02 | | 2. | 《业绩底部修复，配置价值提 | | 升》 | 2025.09.05 | 2026 年，政策环境正从此前的超常规逆周期调节模式，向更具稳定性和 ...

有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 杨莉娜 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F0230456 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0002618 | | 联系方式： | 010-68573781 | | 作者： | 胡彬 | | 从业资格证号： | F0289497 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0011019 | | 联系方式： | 010-68576697 | | 作者： | 梁海宽 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064313 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015305 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518650 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年12月30日星期二 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 有色板块在铜带领下有所调整，但铝产业链相关品种跌幅不大，临 近假日建议减仓观望为主，上方压力区间23000-24000，下方支撑 区间21000-21300，可买入虚值看跌期权做保护。氧化铝现货价格 暂时企稳，在产产能环比持平，建议节前轻仓操作，上方压力区间 2800-3000，下方支撑区间2000-2200，可买入虚值看涨期权做保 护。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - On December 30, the convertible bond industry showed mixed performance in terms of gains and losses, with valuations rising on a month - on - month basis [1]. - The mid - cap growth style was relatively dominant in the market [1]. - The trading sentiment in the convertible bond market weakened [1]. - The convertible bond price center increased, and the proportion of high - price bonds rose [2]. - The convertible bond valuations increased [2]. - In the A - share market, more than half of the underlying stock industry indices declined, while in the convertible bond market, 14 industries rose [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - **Index Performance**: The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.14% month - on - month, the Shanghai Composite Index remained unchanged, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.49%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.63%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.06%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.04% [1]. - **Market Style**: Mid - cap growth was relatively dominant. Large - cap growth rose 0.57%, large - cap value fell 0.13%, mid - cap growth rose 0.81%, mid - cap value rose 0.66%, small - cap growth rose 0.66%, and small - cap value rose 0.34% [1]. - **Fund Performance**: The trading sentiment in the convertible bond market weakened. The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 75.057 billion yuan, a 2.96% month - on - month decrease; the total trading volume of the Wind All - A was 2.161532 trillion yuan, a 0.18% month - on - month increase; the net outflow of the main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 23.828 billion yuan, and the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond decreased by 0.02 bp to 1.86% [1]. Convertible Bond Price - The overall weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 134.53 yuan, a 0.09% month - on - month increase. Among them, the closing price of equity - biased convertible bonds was 202.44 yuan, a 1.47% increase; the closing price of bond - biased convertible bonds was 118.85 yuan, a 0.18% decrease; the closing price of balanced convertible bonds was 129.71 yuan, a 0.01% increase [2]. - The proportion of bonds with a closing price above 130 yuan was 59.95%, a 1.15 - percentage - point increase. The largest change in proportion occurred in the 120 - 130 (including 130) range, with a proportion of 28.01%, a 1.39 - percentage - point decrease. There were no bonds with a closing price below 100 yuan. The median price was 132.60 yuan, a 0.07% month - on - month decrease [2]. Convertible Bond Valuation - The fitted conversion premium rate of 100 - yuan par value was 33.54%, a 0.45 - percentage - point month - on - month increase; the overall weighted par value was 101.88 yuan, a 0.19% month - on - month decrease [2]. - The premium rate of equity - biased convertible bonds was 18.25%, a 1.38 - percentage - point increase; the premium rate of bond - biased convertible bonds was 86.78%, a 2.11 - percentage - point increase; the premium rate of balanced convertible bonds was 25.17%, a 0.42 - percentage - point increase [2]. Industry Performance - **Underlying Stock Market**: Among the A - share industries, the top three decliners were Commerce and Retail (-1.56%), Real Estate (-1.22%), and Utilities (-1.14%); the top three gainers were Petroleum and Petrochemical (+2.63%), Automobile (+1.35%), and Non - Ferrous Metals (+1.31%) [3]. - **Convertible Bond Market**: Among the convertible bond industries, the top three gainers were Automobile (+2.08%), Petroleum and Petrochemical (+1.25%), and Textile and Apparel (+0.77%); the top three decliners were Environmental Protection (-2.57%), National Defense and Military Industry (-1.23%), and Building Materials (-1.16%) [3]. - **By Category**: - **Closing Price**: The large - cycle category decreased by 0.38%, manufacturing increased by 0.54%, technology decreased by 0.24%, large - consumption increased by 0.10%, and large - finance decreased by 0.05% [3]. - **Conversion Premium Rate**: The large - cycle category decreased by 0.21 percentage points, manufacturing increased by 0.57 percentage points, technology increased by 0.028 percentage points, large - consumption increased by 0.63 percentage points, and large - finance increased by 0.79 percentage points [3]. - **Conversion Value**: The large - cycle category decreased by 0.74%, manufacturing increased by 0.17%, technology decreased by 0.36%, large - consumption decreased by 0.43%, and large - finance decreased by 0.20% [3]. - **Pure Bond Premium Rate**: The large - cycle category decreased by 0.55 percentage points, manufacturing increased by 0.81 percentage points, technology decreased by 0.16 percentage points, large - consumption increased by 0.12 percentage points, and large - finance decreased by 0.065 percentage points [4]. Industry Rotation - Industries such as Petroleum and Petrochemical, Automobile, and Non - Ferrous Metals led the gains. For example, Petroleum and Petrochemical had a daily increase of 2.63% in the underlying stock market and 1.25% in the convertible bond market; Automobile had a 1.35% increase in the underlying stock market and 2.08% in the convertible bond market [54].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that if the Shanghai Composite Index can close above 4000 points by the end of 2025, it will instill strong confidence in the market, encouraging more incremental capital to enter in the future. The market is expected to continue a slow bull trend in 2026, with a focus on technology growth, cyclical stocks, and resource stocks [2][3]. Economic Dimension - The economic landscape is characterized by accelerated structural transformation and the rise of new productive forces. Manufacturing PMI is stabilizing, and retail consumption is recovering. High-end manufacturing sectors like smart devices and new energy vehicles are growing significantly faster than the overall economy, becoming key drivers of new productive forces [5]. Financial Dimension - Valuations are aligning with performance, showing significant horizontal space. Non-financial sectors' net profit grew by 1.04% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with technology sectors like AI (up 19.24%) and semiconductors (up 32.41%) showing remarkable profitability. A-shares are undervalued compared to U.S. stocks, with financial and infrastructure sectors still having safety margins [5]. Policy Dimension - The policy environment is focused on stabilizing expectations and increasing incremental capital. Reforms in the capital market, such as raising the equity investment cap for insurance funds to 50%, and optimizing delisting and dividend mechanisms, are enhancing investment functionality. The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes support for new industries like AI and commercial aerospace [5]. Capital Dimension - Continuous inflow of capital is observed, with insurance funds increasing their equity investments to over 4.7 trillion yuan, adding more than 600 billion yuan in 2025. There is ample room for growth, as evidenced by a reduction of 1.11 trillion yuan in household deposits and a 2.14 trillion yuan increase in non-bank deposits, with funds entering the market through ETFs and mutual funds [6]. Industry Dimension - The dual focus on technology and cyclical sectors is evident. In technology growth, there is a surge in demand for AI computing power, storage, and commercial aerospace driven by policy support. In cyclical sectors, the supply-demand gap for industrial metals like copper and aluminum is widening, with expectations of a 150,000-ton shortfall in refined copper in 2026 [6]. Company Dimension - Overall profitability is improving, showcasing resilience. Leading companies in innovation-driven sectors, such as CATL, are achieving high capacity utilization rates close to 90%, with technological breakthroughs driving down costs [7]. Outlook for 2026 - Multiple brokerages express optimism for the A-share market in 2026, predicting a continuation of the slow bull market. The core driving logic is expected to shift from valuation recovery to profit support, with anticipated earnings growth of 5% to 12% [9][10]. The recovery of PPI is seen as a key factor that will drive nominal GDP growth and improve overall profitability in the market [11]. Key Investment Themes - Key investment themes include technology growth led by AI and hard technology, with a focus on areas like optical modules and computing chips. The cyclical and resource sectors are also expected to benefit from improved supply-demand dynamics, with industrial metals and energy sectors showing potential for cash flow improvement and high dividend yields [12].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share vaccine sector is expected to underperform, with a projected increase of 9% by December 28, 2025, lagging behind the broader market by 10 percentage points, indicating a weak overall performance in the sector [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - The 2026 investment strategy for the vaccine sector focuses on three main lines: pipeline realization, technological breakthroughs, and valuation recovery, while avoiding highly competitive products like bivalent HPV and traditional rabies vaccines [1] - Key areas of focus include vaccines with high technological barriers, multi-valent options, potential for business development collaborations, and favorable competitive landscapes, such as RSV vaccines [1] Group 2: Company Highlights - **CanSino Biologics**: The DTcP-Hib-MCV4 combination vaccine and inhaled tuberculosis vaccine (5-type adenovirus vector) are in Phase I clinical trials. The quadrivalent meningococcal conjugate vaccine was exported to Indonesia in September, marking a significant achievement post-COVID vaccine exports. The PCV13i vaccine has gained access in over half of China's provinces and started vaccinations in October. Several vaccines are advancing towards commercialization, with multiple NDA applications submitted [2] - **Aimee Vaccine**: The PCV13, PPSV23, and rabies vaccines are in the final stages of market entry. Aimee has 20 vaccines in development, with 15 products having received 23 clinical approvals. The PCV13 has submitted for market registration, and the iterative rabies vaccine is also in the registration process. The PPSV23 has completed Phase III clinical serum testing and is moving towards statistical unblinding [3] - **Clover Biopharmaceuticals**: The respiratory combined vaccine (RSV-hMPV-PIV3) has gained global attention, with positive Phase I clinical trial results in older adults. This vaccine is expected to advance to Phase II trials in the first half of 2026, addressing unmet clinical needs related to RSV and enhancing immune protection through repeat vaccinations [4] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Suggested stocks in the Hong Kong vaccine sector include CanSino, Clover Biopharmaceuticals-B, and Aimee Vaccine, indicating potential investment opportunities in these companies [4]

日经225指数以科技和出口板块的大型蓝筹股为主，在市场对AI泡沫的担忧升温的情况下在11月出现了较明显的回调。而东证指数成分股的行业分布 更为均衡，包含金融、消费、服务等全行业，且覆盖更多中小型公司。 以爱德万测试软银集团和为首的科技股成为了日本股市2025年上涨的最大驱动力。爱德万测试今年市值首次突破10万亿日元，年内涨幅约114%。作为 英伟达(NVDA.US)芯片出厂前检测缺陷的测试设备供应商，爱德万测试受益于预期将持续数年的AI支出热潮，这也促使这家半导体设备龙头在10月上 今年4月初，在美国总统特朗普对外大规模加征关税的余震中，东证指数一度暴跌。随后，在贸易战担忧缓解、以及日本股市相对于美欧股市被低估 的情况下，日本股市重获青睐。此外，日元持续疲软让外资能以更低成本购入日本资产，从而刺激需求。在对日本企业盈利改善、高市早苗政府财经 刺激计划以及全球流动性过剩的预期推动下，东证指数在年末持续创下新高。 与此同时，买盘兴趣也扩展到了小盘股，表明日本股市的吸引力正在扩大。数据显示，东证指数中盘股和小盘股板块今年分别上涨了27%和26%，自 2022年以来首次跑赢大盘股21%的涨幅。 野村资产管理公司首席策 ...

Core Viewpoint - Foreign institutions are optimistic about the Chinese stock market for 2026, shifting their focus from "valuation repair" in 2025 to "profit growth" in 2026, driven by accelerating corporate earnings, macro policy support, and RMB appreciation [1][2][5]. Investment Trends - As of December 20, 2025, global investment in Chinese assets through ETFs has seen a net inflow of $83.1 billion, with the technology sector receiving the most inflow at $9.5 billion [1][9]. - Active foreign capital is expected to return to the Chinese stock market, with some institutions already increasing their positions in preparation for 2026 [10][12]. Earnings Forecasts - Goldman Sachs predicts a 38% increase in the Chinese stock market by the end of 2027, with corporate earnings expected to grow by 14% in 2026 and 12% in 2027 [3]. - UBS forecasts an increase in the Hang Seng Tech Index target to 7,100 points and the MSCI China Index target to 100 points by the end of 2026, indicating significant upside potential [3]. Valuation Insights - Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs believe there is still about a 10% potential for valuation repair in the Chinese stock market, which will support market growth [4][5]. - JPMorgan has upgraded its rating on the Chinese market to "overweight," citing reasonable valuations and light positions among international investors [4]. Sector-Specific Opportunities - The technology sector is highlighted as a core focus for profit growth, with opportunities in artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and high-end manufacturing [6]. - Traditional industries are also attracting foreign investment, with improvements in state-owned enterprise profitability and dividend increases acting as a dual engine for market growth [7][8]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the Chinese stock market will enter a new phase dominated by fundamentals, with a focus on structural investment opportunities [2][5]. - The anticipated return of active foreign capital is expected to be driven by improving corporate fundamentals, a weaker dollar, and the attractiveness of RMB assets [12].