有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 杨莉娜 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F0230456 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0002618 | | 联系方式： | 010-68573781 | | 作者： | 胡彬 | | 从业资格证号： | F0289497 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0011019 | | 联系方式： | 010-68576697 | | 作者： | 梁海宽 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064313 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015305 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518650 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2026年03月03日星期二 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 有色金属日度策略 Metal Futures Daily Strategy 摘要 铜： 金银价格日间大幅下挫，但铜价仍展示出韧性。油价的上涨推升了 未来的通胀预期，铜作为对通胀最为敏感的大宗商品之一，价格中 枢有望受此提振上移。全球铜精矿供给当前紧张，但国内精废价差 走扩，使得废产阳极流入冶炼端增多。硫酸价格依旧高位运行，短 ...

有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 杨莉娜 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F0230456 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0002618 | | 联系方式： | 010-68573781 | | 作者： | 胡彬 | | 从业资格证号： | F0289497 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0011019 | | 联系方式： | 010-68576697 | | 作者： | 梁海宽 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064313 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015305 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518650 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2026年03月02日星期一 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 有色金属日度策略 Metal Futures Daily Strategy 【交易策略】铜当前基本面处于阶段性弱势，对价格上行驱动不明 显。当前铜价主导因素仍是宏观逻辑，叠加地缘政治冲突造成的风 险溢价，以及自身相较黄金白银的估值修复。随着金银市场重拾升 势，国内下游需求逐步回归，铜价有望结束盘整，再度走强。下游 需求端建议积 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong IPO market has continued its hot trend in 2023, with 24 companies completing IPOs by February 26, representing a year-on-year increase of 166.67%, and a total fundraising amount of 892.26 billion HKD, up 1013.59% [1] - Emerging sectors such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and biomedicine have become the main drivers of the IPO market, with AI being a key engine for this trend [1] - The current boom in the Hong Kong market is attributed to a restructuring of global asset allocation logic, with improved external liquidity and the implementation of domestic policies related to new productive forces contributing to a "valuation repair" and "growth elasticity" phase [1] Group 2 - There are currently 488 companies waiting to be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with over 10 being international companies, indicating a strong pipeline of potential listings [2] - More than 100 of the companies in the queue are A-share listed companies, reflecting a trend where leading A-share firms with stable cash flows and technological advantages are choosing to list in Hong Kong [2] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange emphasizes maintaining high listing quality and is undergoing institutional reforms, including the introduction of a consultation document for optimizing listing rules and a proposal for a "T+1" settlement cycle [2]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong IPO market has continued its strong momentum in 2023, with 24 companies completing IPOs by February 26, representing a year-on-year increase of 166.67%, and total fundraising amounting to 89.226 billion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 1013.59% [1] - Emerging sectors such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and biomedicine have become the main drivers of the IPO market, with AI being a key engine for this IPO boom [1] - The current market enthusiasm is attributed to a restructuring of global asset allocation logic, with improved external liquidity conditions and the implementation of domestic policies related to new productive forces contributing to a "valuation recovery" and "growth elasticity" phase for the Hong Kong market [1] Group 2 - There are currently 488 companies waiting to go public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with over 10 being international companies, indicating a strong pipeline of potential listings [2] - More than 100 of the companies in the queue are A-share listed companies, reflecting a trend where leading A-share firms with stable cash flows and technological advantages are choosing to list in Hong Kong [2] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange emphasizes maintaining high listing quality and plans to introduce several key reforms, including optimizing listing regulations and potentially implementing a "T+1" settlement cycle [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent strong performance of the building materials sector in the A-share market is attributed to multiple favorable factors, including macroeconomic policies, gradual improvement in industry fundamentals, and consensus on low-level capital allocation [1][3]. Policy Support - The real estate sector is experiencing a combination of policies aimed at stabilizing expectations, sales, and construction, which have led to increased demand for construction materials such as waterproofing, coatings, pipes, and tiles [3]. - Infrastructure investment continues to support the economy, with local governments accelerating the issuance of special bonds and major projects commencing, leading to a steady recovery in demand for traditional cyclical building materials like cement, glass, and fiberglass [3]. Cost and Profitability - Prices of core raw materials for building materials, such as coal, soda ash, and natural gas, have decreased, effectively lowering production costs and enhancing profit margins for companies [3]. - Ongoing supply-side reforms, including staggered production and capacity regulation, are clearing out outdated capacities, leading to increased industry concentration and improved profitability for leading companies [3]. Future Outlook - The investment opportunities in the building materials sector are clear, driven by both cyclical recovery and growth upgrades, with short-term benefits expected from accelerated construction and demand recovery [4]. - Long-term demand will be supported by urban renewal and the promotion of green and energy-efficient materials, while new materials like fiberglass and advanced composites are expected to grow due to high demand in new energy and AI sectors [4]. - The building materials sector is characterized by low valuations and high dividends, providing room for continued valuation recovery, supported by favorable policies, improving demand, and rising profitability [4]. Investment Strategy - For investors, the building materials ETF (159745) is recommended as an efficient tool for exposure to the sector, tracking the CSI All Share Construction Materials Index and covering a full industry chain [4]. - The ETF allows for easy trading, low fees, and risk diversification, making it suitable for both trend-following and value-oriented investors [4][5].

短期避险情绪消化，马年A股有望迎来开门红。 A股休市期间，港股非银普遍上涨2%-5%。 两市成交量有望回升，非银板块基本面好、估值低，建议参与估值修复行情。 【广发非银】开工大吉，迎接开门红 短期避险情绪消化，马年A股有望迎来开门红。 A股休市期间，港股非银普遍上涨2%-5%。 两市成交量有望回升，非银板块基本面好、估值低，建议参与估值修复行情。 证券：一是估值低，该涨未涨，合理折价30%以上；二是业绩好，ADT大幅增长，股债双牛，Q1显著好于去年同 期；三是可期待，存款搬家、衍生品新规打开增长空间。 【广发非银】开工大吉，迎接开门红 推荐国泰、华泰、中信、东财、招商、东方、兴业等。 保险：一是负债持续高增长，截止目前新单增速普遍在40%以上，短期利好NBV持续增长，长期利好负债成本加 速下行；二是慢牛利好保险资产端，预计26上半年利润有望高速增长；三是政策呵护，提升行业集中度。 A股平安、太保、新华；H股国寿、平安、太平。 多元：推荐证券IT、渤海租赁、中国船舶租赁。 证券：一是估值低，该涨未涨，合理折价30%以上；二是业绩好，ADT大幅增长，股债双牛，Q1显著好于去年同 期；三是可期待，存款搬家、衍生品新 ...

Core Viewpoint - Kangda New Materials (002669.SZ) experienced a stock price increase of 4.13% to 14.87 yuan, driven by sector performance, positive earnings forecasts, and technical indicators [1][2][3]. Sector Performance - The basic chemical sector rose by 2.22%, while the new materials sector increased by 2.08%, indicating a recovery in industry sentiment and a broad-based rally among leading stocks due to supply-side contraction and anti-involution policies [1]. Recent Performance - The company announced an earnings forecast on January 20, 2026, predicting a net profit of 125 to 135 million yuan for 2025, marking a turnaround from a loss of 246 million yuan in 2024, representing a growth of 150.78% to 154.84% [2]. Financial and Technical Analysis - The stock price broke through the 60-day moving average of 14.42 yuan, with a narrowing MACD histogram at -0.062 and a KDJ J-line rising to 90.255, indicating increased short-term buying momentum. Additionally, there was a net inflow of 1.4044 million yuan from main funds, reflecting institutional interest [3]. Company Valuation - Despite the anticipated profit increase for 2025, the current price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is negative, while the price-to-book ratio stands at 1.66, below the industry average, suggesting potential for valuation recovery. Institutions forecast a net profit growth rate of 46.35% and a revenue growth rate of 12.12% for 2025, indicating improving fundamentals [4]. Future Development - The recent stock price increase is attributed to a combination of sector sentiment, earnings growth, technical breakthroughs, and valuation recovery. Investors should monitor the 2025 annual report, expected to be released in March 2026, for final confirmation of performance and the ongoing impact of wind power demand on core business [5].

Group 1 - The offline retail industry in China is experiencing extreme polarization, with Lianhua Supermarket's revenue declining by 30% year-on-year in 2024, and its parent company, Jia Yue Holdings, closing 1,009 stores, accounting for about one-third of the total 3,037 supermarket closures nationwide [1] - The industry is evolving into a "dumbbell" structure, indicating that traditional supermarkets are facing structural clearance pressure [1] - Lianhua Supermarket's stock price showed a fluctuation of 4.05% from February 20 to February 23, 2026, with a closing price of HKD 0.39 on February 23, 2026, and a daily change of 0.00% [1] Group 2 - The current institutional target average price for Lianhua Supermarket is HKD 0.89, indicating an upside potential of approximately 128% compared to the closing price of HKD 0.39 on February 23, 2026 [2] - Only one institution covers Lianhua Supermarket, with a target price range of HKD 0.89, suggesting significant valuation recovery potential, but attention is needed on industry differentiation and company fundamental pressures [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Hang Seng Tech Index has become increasingly important in the market as AI narratives strengthen, serving as a key benchmark for the tech sector in Hong Kong and a vital tool for investing in Chinese tech assets [1] Valuation and Market Position - The current valuation of the Hang Seng Tech Index has dropped to historically low levels, with a dynamic price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) of approximately 22.10 times as of February 13, 2025, which is below the 25th percentile of the past three years and significantly down from over 60 times at the peak in early 2021 [2] - The price-to-book ratio (PB) stands at about 2.91 times, also in the historical bottom range [2] - Compared to the Nasdaq 100 Index (approximately 34 times PE) and the domestic ChiNext Index (over 40 times PE), the Hang Seng Tech Index shows a significant valuation discount, reflecting multiple pessimistic expectations such as regulatory tightening and macroeconomic slowdown [5] Earnings Improvement and Future Outlook - With the acceleration of AI model commercialization, a recovery in cloud business demand, and the normalization of gaming license issuance, leading internet companies are showing signs of improvement in both revenue and profit [6] - According to Galaxy Securities, the fundamentals of the Hang Seng Tech Index are expected to show significant improvement by the second quarter of 2025, with a year-on-year revenue growth rate of 14.43% and a net profit growth rate of 16.18%, outperforming the overall Hang Seng Index [6] - Excluding the impact of the food delivery price war on Alibaba, Meituan, and JD.com, the core constituents of the Hang Seng Tech Index are expected to see a revenue growth of 13.6% and a Non-GAAP net profit growth of 21.7%, indicating strong profit recovery momentum [6] Market Dynamics and Investment Tools - The Hong Kong stock market has seen significant inflows from foreign and southbound investors, driving strength in traditional sectors like agriculture, food and beverage, and transportation, despite volatility in global software and tech giants [7] - The Huatai Securities report suggests that the peak earnings season for U.S. tech stocks is nearing its end, and there may be catalysts for technology and consumer sectors around the Chinese New Year [7] - The E Fund Hang Seng Tech ETF Connect (QDII) C (013128) is highlighted as a cost-effective tool for investors looking to capitalize on the valuation recovery of the Hang Seng Tech Index, featuring a fee structure that avoids high redemption fees for short-term holders [7][10] Sector Composition - The Hang Seng Tech Index includes leading companies in both internet and hard tech sectors, with over 50% of the index weight attributed to platform companies like Tencent, Alibaba, Meituan, JD.com, and Kuaishou [7][8] - The hard tech segment encompasses companies in the smart electric vehicle supply chain, semiconductor manufacturing, and consumer electronics, capturing both the resilience of consumer internet and the growth potential of industrial internet [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent performance of the banking sector, with a focus on the 4Q25 regulatory data and the January 2026 financial data, indicating a 2% year-on-year increase in net profit for commercial banks and a quarterly growth rate of 12% driven by low baselines in city and rural commercial banks [1] - The net interest margin remains stable at 1.42%, with a year-on-year decline narrowing to 11 basis points [1] - Social financing in January 2026 reached a historical high of 7.22 trillion yuan, with direct financing increasing by 322.8 billion yuan year-on-year, reflecting improved demand for short-term loans from residents, indicating the effectiveness of consumption policies [1] Group 2 - Recent stock performance shows that CITIC Bank's A-shares closed at 7.34 yuan on February 13, 2026, down 0.94%, while its Hong Kong shares closed at 7.34 HKD on February 20, 2026, up 0.82% [1] - Capital flow data indicates a net inflow of 12.63 million yuan into A-shares and a total net inflow of 7.48 million HKD into Hong Kong shares on the same day [1] - Technical analysis suggests a short-term resistance level for A-shares at 7.77 yuan and a support level at 7.1 yuan, while the MACD indicator for Hong Kong shares is approaching a golden cross, with the middle band of the Bollinger Bands at 7.27 HKD providing support [1] Group 3 - Institutional views suggest that the net interest margin for banks is expected to stabilize in 2026, with a recovery in net interest income potentially driving valuation recovery, particularly for quality city commercial banks and joint-stock banks [2] - Analysts recommend focusing on banks with strong wealth management businesses, such as CITIC Bank, highlighting the dual themes of "dividend + growth" [2] - It is anticipated that the decline in net interest margin for commercial banks will further narrow in 2026, with net interest income growth potentially approaching 5% [2]