近一年时间，作为大盘蓝筹以及大消费的代表，贵州茅台持续高比例分红的同时，积极回购增持，"三 箭齐发"之下，公司有望在"反内卷"政策中受益。 为积极响应交易所"提质增效重回报"的号召，去年9月，贵州茅台发布回购预案，回购金额不低于30亿 元且不超过60亿元，本次回购股份将用于注销并减少公司注册资本。 自今年1月，公司首次实施回购，截至8月30日，公司回购总额累计60亿元，已达到回购预案的金额上 限，即贵州茅台8个月回购60亿元。 公布增持计划后火速行动 近日，贵州茅台(600519)公告，控股股东"茅台集团"已获得中国农业银行股份有限公司贵州省分行出具 的贷款承诺函，农业银行承诺对茅台集团股票增持事项提供贷款支持，贷款额度不高于人民币27亿元。 这是继2023年7月以来，贵州茅台股东再次开展增持计划。 就在此前的8月30日，贵州茅台公告称，茅台集团基于对公司长期价值的认可和未来发展的信心，计划 自增持计划公告发布之日起6个月内，通过集中竞价交易方式增持公司股票，拟增持金额不低于人民币 30亿元（含）且不高于人民币33亿元（含）。 在公布拟增持计划后，贵州茅台9月2日公告，股东茅台集团通过集中竞价交易方式，增持6 ...

就在此前的8月30日，贵州茅台公告称，茅台集团基于对公司长期价值的认可和未来发展的信心，计划 自增持计划公告发布之日起6个月内，通过集中竞价交易方式增持公司股票，拟增持金额不低于人民币 30亿元（含）且不高于人民币33亿元（含）。 近日，贵州茅台公告，控股股东"茅台集团"已获得中国农业银行股份有限公司贵州省分行出具的贷款承 诺函，农业银行承诺对茅台集团股票增持事项提供贷款支持，贷款额度不高于人民币27亿元。这是继 2023年7月以来，贵州茅台股东再次开展增持计划。 在公布拟增持计划后，贵州茅台9月2日公告，股东茅台集团通过集中竞价交易方式，增持67,821股公司 股票，占公司总股本的0.0054%，增持金额超过1亿元。从首次披露至实施增持，公司行动极为迅速。 60亿元回购额稳居A股首位 近一年时间，作为大盘蓝筹以及大消费的代表，贵州茅台（600519）持续高比例分红的同时，积极回购 增持，"三箭齐发"之下，公司有望在"反内卷"政策中受益。 公布增持计划后火速行动 截至9月23日，贵州茅台最新滚动市盈率约为20倍，高于白酒行业指数，长期保持估值溢价。从历史数 据来看，贵州茅台近5年的最低市盈率19.69倍，平均 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the securities ETF (159841) has experienced significant net inflows and is at a historical high in terms of circulation scale, reflecting strong investor interest in the sector [1] - As of September 22, the securities ETF (159841) has a latest circulation scale of 9.193 billion, marking a record high and ranking first among similar products in the Shenzhen market [1] - The securities ETF (159841) closely tracks the CSI All Share Securities Company Index, which includes both traditional securities leaders and financial technology leaders, indicating a diversified investment approach [1] Group 2 - Analysts express optimism regarding the third-quarter performance of brokerage firms, suggesting that the sector's valuation may recover despite a recent decline of 5.5% in the brokerage sector as of September 22 [2] - The overall performance of the equity market has been positive since the beginning of the year, yet the brokerage sector index has lagged behind the broader market, indicating potential for valuation recovery [2] - The long-term outlook for the capital market remains positive, with expectations for sustainable earnings growth in the brokerage sector, suggesting that the current market adjustment may provide a strategic opportunity for long-term investors [2]

而黄金股呈现出更高弹性，从半年报来看，黄金板块业绩高增，主要来自"量价齐升"——金价上涨 + 产 量增加。业绩释放同时也摊薄了金矿公司的市盈率，未来有望迎来"戴维斯双击"。黄金珠宝商业绩也出 现拐点，并持续走向高端化。 如果以3500美元/盎司的金价进行测算，截至9月12日，主流金矿公司2026年的平均市盈率预计仅12~15 倍，而历史估值中枢在20倍左右——也就是说，当前黄金股仍有显著的估值修复空间。 不少龙头公司的"市值/资源量"比值已接近重置成本线，未来可能会吸引更多产业资本入场布局。黄金 股的配置价值，正在越来越清晰！ $黄金股ETF(517520)$是该指数的代表性ETF，投资者可关注全市场规模最大的$黄金股ETF (517520)$ 及其联接基金（A类020411；C类020412），作为投资黄金股的高效工具。 今日开盘，国际金价再创历史新高，中证沪深港黄金产业股票指数(931238)强势上涨2.01%，成分股晓 程科技(300139)上涨6.08%，株冶集团(600961)上涨5.50%，白银有色(601212)上涨5.07%，万国黄金集团 (03939)，赤峰黄金(06693)等个股跟涨。黄金 ...

当前，反内卷已成为自上而下的政策共识，资本市场对中游行业投资机会的关注度逐步提升。化工行业作为典型中游周期板块，其供需基本面、配置价值及 投资逻辑备受市场关注。近日，国投瑞银基金经理汤龑围绕反内卷政策导向、化工行业供需逻辑、配置时点、基金操作策略及下半年市场展望等核心问题展 开深入解读。 国投瑞银基金经理 汤龑 问题一：当前反内卷政策为何将重点聚焦中游行业，而非上游？其核心逻辑是什么？ 汤龑表示，反内卷政策的核心目标是解决产业链产能过剩、低价新增等问题，相关问题在中游行业表现尤为突出，从两大关键维度可明确政策聚焦中游的必 然性：一是产能利用率差异。上游经供给侧改革后提升至80%左右，显著优于中下游的70%；二是从利润增速看，上游行业（如有色金属、非金属矿采选） 保持正增长且盈利处于历史高位，而中下游行业盈利承压。因此，反内卷政策重点必然聚焦中游行业。 政策层面，当前官媒已密集发声，光伏、汽车、快递等行业政策陆续出台，反内卷已形成自上而下的政策共识，仅尚未完全转化为资本市场共识。且中游行 业对反内卷政策反应更为积极，自然成为政策重点支持及受益的核心领域。 问题二：反内卷背景下，化工行业有望充分受益的逻辑是什么？ ...

券商ETF基金（515010）跟踪证券公司指数（399975），指数前十大成份股权重达60.73%，包括中信证 券、东方财富、国泰海通、华泰证券、招商证券等头部券商，一键配置券商龙头。产品管理费托管费合 计0.2%为赛道最低费率档。 （本文机构观点来自持牌证券机构，不构成任何投资建议，亦不代表平台观点，请投资人独立判断和决 策。） 据央视网，专家表示，七八月份资本市场交易活跃度显著提升，8月份上证指数突破3800点，A股总市 值超过100万亿元，日均股票成交额达2.3万亿元，为年内新高。资本市场交易活跃不仅直接带动资本市 场服务业税收大幅增长，还带动与资本市场相关的行业税收增长。 中航证券分析指出，年初以来，权益市场整体表现向好，但券商板块指数修复力度仍落后于大盘，大型 券商估值目前仍处于历史中低位水平。展望全年，资本市场预计将保持稳步向上趋势，业绩增长的可持 续性有望增强，板块具备估值修复潜力。在中长期资本市场向好趋势明确的背景下，券商业务的深度与 广度预计将进一步拓展，业务结构和估值均具备中长期增长空间。 金融科技ETF华夏（516100）紧密跟踪中证金融科技主题指数，涵盖软件开发、互联网金融及数字货币 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the liquor industry, particularly focusing on the performance and strategies of major companies like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye during the recent sugar and liquor fair [1][2][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Feedback from the Sugar and Liquor Fair**: Overall feedback from the fair was in line with expectations, with some channel operations exceeding expectations. Most liquor companies emphasized price stability in their channel operations [1]. 2. **Valuation Changes**: Post-Spring Festival, the market's perception of real estate stability has led to an increase in Guizhou Moutai's valuation from 18x to 22x, with many other stocks also experiencing valuation upgrades [2]. 3. **Seasonal Performance**: Despite being the off-season, banquet consumption has continued to show growth similar to the Spring Festival, with business consumption also receiving positive feedback due to a more favorable operating environment for private enterprises [3]. 4. **Confidence in Price Recovery**: There is a growing confidence in price recovery, although it remains untested during the off-season. The overall sentiment is that the liquor sector is not facing a downturn but is on an upward trend [4][7]. 5. **Foreign Investment Interest**: Foreign investors are likely to increase their allocation in liquor stocks, particularly Guizhou Moutai, due to strong earnings growth and attractive dividend yields. In contrast, domestic investors are more cautious due to previous significant gains in other sectors [5][6]. 6. **Inventory and Pricing Strategies**: Most liquor companies are maintaining stable prices and avoiding aggressive discounting to ensure natural sales growth. This strategy is crucial for maintaining market share in the mid-to-high price segments [14][15]. 7. **Channel Operations**: Wuliangye is undergoing significant channel reforms, focusing on reducing traditional channel volumes while enhancing direct sales and new market channels. The success of these reforms depends heavily on management execution [19][20][21]. 8. **Sales and Payment Trends**: The first quarter's sales performance is expected to show a mid-single-digit growth rate, with most companies nearing completion of their payment collection for the quarter [18][39]. 9. **Consumer Behavior Insights**: There is a notable recovery in consumer demand, particularly in banquet and business settings, although the overall market remains cautious about confirming a definitive recovery point [10][11][12]. Additional Important Insights - **Regional Performance Variations**: The performance of liquor sales varies significantly by region, with southern regions showing stronger recovery compared to northern areas [27]. - **Emerging Trends in Consumer Preferences**: There is a shift towards premium products, with some companies reporting substantial growth in high-end liquor sales [10][11]. - **Future Outlook**: The overall sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with expectations of gradual recovery in consumer demand and potential for further valuation increases in the liquor sector [6][12][13]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the liquor industry.

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the potential for valuation recovery in the home furnishing sector in Q4, with many companies currently at historical low valuations and attractive dividend yields, suggesting a timely opportunity for left-side positioning [3]. - The introduction of new HNB products by British American Tobacco (BAT) in European markets is expected to enhance market share, with a target of reaching 50 million consumers of smoke-free products by 2030 and transitioning to a smoke-free enterprise by 2035 [3]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing - The report notes that in August, the residential construction area decreased by 28.4% year-on-year, while the sales area of residential properties saw a 10% decline [8]. - Despite the pressure on the real estate sector, the report emphasizes the opportunity for investment in home furnishing companies due to their low valuations and high dividend yields [8]. - Key companies to watch include leading brands in soft furnishings and custom furniture, such as Kuka Home, Sophia, and Oppein [8]. Paper and Packaging - As of September 19, 2025, the prices for various paper products showed mixed trends, with double glue paper at 4800 RMB/ton (down 18.75 RMB), while corrugated paper increased to 2791.25 RMB/ton (up 20 RMB) [8]. - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong supply chain management and fiber supply, such as Nine Dragons Paper and Sun Paper [8]. Light Industry Consumption - In August, sales of sanitary napkins on e-commerce platforms increased by 5.8% year-on-year, with the Nais Princess brand showing a significant growth of 41% [10]. - The report anticipates a boost in sales for personal care brands as the e-commerce sales season approaches, highlighting companies like Dengkang Oral Care and Steady Medical [10]. Export Chain - The report notes that the recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve may lead to improved demand in the U.S. real estate sector, positively impacting export-oriented home furnishing companies [10]. - Companies to monitor in the export chain include Zhongxin Co., Jiangxin Home, and Zhejiang Natural [10]. New Tobacco Products - The report discusses the launch of BAT's GLO HILO in several European markets, projecting a continued increase in market share for HNB products [10]. - It recommends focusing on companies that have established partnerships in the electronic cigarette and HNB product sectors, such as Smoore International [10].

以下文章来源于大胡子财研社 ，作者湾区区长 大胡子财研社 . 独到的财经观点，深度的金融分析，助你抓住最新财富机会，实现资产稳步增长！ 前几天，最新的社融数据出炉了，其中一个最值得大家留意的数据是存款数据。 最新8月份的数据显示： 8月份东大新增企业存 款2997亿元，同比少增503亿元； 新增的居民存款1100亿元，同比去年少增6000 亿 元。 而在此之前的 7月， 居民存款存量大概是 1.11万亿元 ，同比多减7800亿元。 在银行存款不断下跌、资金显著流出的同时，非银行业金融机构，比如券商、基金、保险公司这 些机构的存款，则在显著增长。 8月份， 非银存款增加了 1.18万亿元 ，同比多增5500亿元。 7月份非银机构的存款增加额更是高达 2.14万亿元 。 今年前8个月，非银存款累计新增达到了 5.87万亿元 ，创下了历史同期的新高。 大量存款离开银行存款，流向券商、基金这些机构，说明什么？ 其中许多产品通过少量配置权益资产，吸引力远超传统存款和纯债产品 。 数据显示，截至2025年6月末，银行理财市场存续规模已经超过 30万亿元，说明现在有大量的存 款，是从银行流向了这些有稳定收益的理财产品，并非 ...

Group 1 - Recent reports from major foreign banks indicate a bullish outlook for the Chinese stock market, highlighting a "sustainable bull market" driven by a transformation in risk-reward structure [1][3] - Morgan Stanley identifies the bull market as being in a "sustainable formation phase," marked by a significant change in risk-reward dynamics, while Goldman Sachs emphasizes a "structural rise supported by valuation recovery" [3][5] - Both banks agree that advancements in AI technology are improving fundamentals, leading to a resonance between micro-structural improvements in the market and macro valuation recovery [1][3] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley's key argument includes that the MSCI China Index's three-month return volatility ratio has risen to 0.96, approaching the U.S. market's 1.04, breaking the historical norm of high volatility accompanying market rises [4][5] - Goldman Sachs points out that the price-to-earnings ratio of the CSI 300 Index is currently at 13.3 times, which is 22% lower than the historical average and at levels seen during the 2018 bear market [6][7] Group 3 - Morgan Stanley focuses on the intensity of AI narratives and market sentiment, identifying key technology breakthroughs such as Alibaba's self-developed chips and advancements from companies like Cambrian and the "Yizhongtian" optical module leaders [7][8] - Goldman Sachs emphasizes the ability of the AI industry chain to deliver on fundamentals, raising growth assumptions for Alibaba Cloud to 30%-32% for the fiscal year 2026 [9][10] Group 4 - Morgan Stanley believes that the "anti-involution" policy has a significant upward pull on the economy, with indicators such as PPI stabilizing for the first time in 14 months [11][12] - Goldman Sachs anticipates that the macro policy mix will lead to an increase in the fiscal deficit rate from 10.4% to 13% by 2025, with private enterprise revenue growth expected to rise from 1% to 3% [12][13] Group 5 - Morgan Stanley's investment strategy focuses on using structured tools to hedge risks and capture short-term opportunities, with a preference for technology and cyclical sectors [12][13] - Goldman Sachs prioritizes fundamental stock selection, recommending to buy on dips, with a focus on service consumption and policy-supported private enterprises [13][14] Group 6 - Both banks share three core agreements: AI is a key driver of long-term growth, the policy environment is continuously improving, and the market presents attractive investment opportunities [14]