今日沪深两市持续高位震荡，创业板指跌逾1%。港股科技ETF(513020)开年以来持续回暖，年内涨幅约30%，但近期在1.09附近的价 格区间持续震荡。 当前港股科技板块正处于"估值洼地"与"产业变革"的交汇点，政策、技术、资金三因素共振推动配置价值显著提升。资金面上，南 向资金与外资形成合力，持续改善板块流动性；政策面上，产业支持与资本市场改革双重利好叠加，从盈利基础与估值体系双维度 提振市场信心。盈利端来看，彭博一致预期显示2025-2027年恒生科技指数EPS将保持逐年上行趋势，叠加当前板块估值仍处历史低 位，有望迎来"估值修复"与"盈利增长"的戴维斯双击行情。在AI技术迭代、政策环境优化及全球资金再配置的驱动下，港股科技板块 或将成为新一轮市场行情的重要引擎。 港股科技ETF（513020）紧密跟踪中证港股通科技指数，该指数精选通过港股通交易的港股科技企业，覆盖互联网、半导体、新能 源汽车、生物医药等核心科技领域，具备较强的行业均衡性和成长性。 横向对比恒生科技等其他港股科技类指数，中证港股通科技指数行业分布更加均衡，或更有效地捕捉各个行业上涨空间。根据Wind 数据，今年以来截至7月7日，港股通科技 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share banking sector has shown strong performance, with all 42 stocks in the sector rising, driven by low interest rates and a preference for high dividend yields among long-term investors [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 4, 2023, the A-share banking sector has accumulated a rise of over 17% this year, with stocks like Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank reaching new highs [1]. - Shanghai Pudong Development Bank leads the sector with a year-to-date increase of over 40%, followed by banks like Qingdao Bank and Industrial Bank, each with gains exceeding 30% [2]. Group 2: Investment Appeal - The average dividend yield of the A-share banking sector is close to 4%, making it attractive compared to the current 10-year government bond yield of approximately 1.65% and a one-year deposit rate below 1% [2]. - Institutional investors, including insurance funds, are increasingly favoring bank stocks due to their stable returns and the ongoing reform in the public fund industry, which is expected to enhance demand for bank shares [2][3]. Group 3: Valuation Recovery - Recent increases in shareholdings by major shareholders and executives signal positive future prospects for banks, suggesting that the valuation recovery of the banking sector may accelerate [4]. - Several banks, including Suzhou Bank and Qingdao Bank, have announced plans for significant share buybacks, reflecting confidence in their long-term investment value [4]. Group 4: Funding Dynamics - The recent regulatory changes aimed at promoting the high-quality development of public funds are expected to bring short-term incremental capital to the banking sector [5]. - The demand for stable return equity assets from institutional investors, particularly insurance funds, continues to support the potential for increased allocation to bank stocks [5].

本报记者 于宏 近期，券商密集披露最新回购进展。例如，7月2日晚间，东方证券发布公告称，自5月6日公司披露回购 方案以来，截至6月30日，公司已通过集中竞价交易方式累计回购A股股份2670.32万股，占公司总股本 的比例为0.31%，已支付的总金额为2.5亿元（不含交易费用，下同）。 7月1日，国泰海通、中泰证券、国金证券也纷纷披露股份回购情况。其中，截至6月30日，国泰海通已 通过集中竞价交易方式累计回购A股股份5922.44万股，占公司总股本的比例为0.34%，已支付的总金额 为10.51亿元；中泰证券已通过集中竞价交易方式累计回购股份3350.35万股，占公司总股本的比例为 0.48%，已支付的总金额为2.13亿元；国金证券已通过集中竞价交易方式累计回购股份719.46万股，占 公司总股本的比例为0.19%，已支付的总金额为5946.68万元。 除上述4家券商外，实施回购的券商还包括财通证券、华安证券、西部证券，回购股份数量分别为 4074.2万股、1751.72万股、614.79万股，回购金额分别为3亿元、1.08亿元、5009.6万元。 同时，还有部分券商已公布回购方案。例如，5月9日，红塔证券发布 ...

近期"反内卷"政策催化下，光伏板块迎来强势反弹。具体来看，7月1日，中央财经委员会第六次会议中 指出"依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质，推动落后产能有序退出"，而此前产能 过剩正是制约光伏产业发展的核心因素之一，部分国内头部光伏玻璃企业积极相应政策号召，计划自7 月开始集体减产30%，有望缓解行业供给过剩情况，推动价格回升。 在消息面的利好带动下，全市场首只光伏ETF（515790）获得了较高的资金关注度与配置热情，截至7 月2日，交易所数据显示自6月27日以来已连续4个交易日获资金净流入，累计"吸金"14.58亿元，是同期 全市场仅有的累计流入超2亿元的光伏主题ETF，推动基金最新规模突破百亿关口，达111.57亿元；最新 份额达161.69亿份，创下成立以来新高。 与此同时，截至7月3日，近5个交易日光伏ETF（515790）呈现大幅放量的态势，期间日均成交额达 7.57亿元，其中7月2日更是高达11.9亿元，环比增长达94%，流动性优势较突出。 光伏ETF（515790）紧密跟踪中证光伏产业指数 （931151.CSI），指数将主营业务涉及光伏产业链上、 中、下游的上市公司股票作为待选 ...

从基本面的角度来看，2025年也有望成为国内创新药在财报角度实现盈利拐点的年份，这有望让估值逻 辑获得更强支撑。从现金流的角度来看，管线BD首付款为很多创新药公司提供了更好的现金流。国内 的创新药企逐步验证了其商业模式的可持续性和自我造血的能力，减少对于外部融资的依赖。随着出海 愈加频繁，潜在商业化能力逐步增强，共同驱动了本轮创新药估值的修复。 从今年2月下旬到3月初，随着医保支持创新药高质量发展的若干意见和丙类目录商保落地的政策预期增 强，板块得到修复，后面随着CSCO等重磅学术会议的临床数据催化、部分公司报表端提前扭亏的预期 以及国内药企海外授权在金额和数量上创出新高，持续催化了创新药板块整体的行情，最终迎来爆发。 本轮创新药行情的核心驱动力是什么？我们觉得最重要的因素之一就是对外BD进入爆发期，推动估值 提升和情绪高涨。而且近期BD形式与以往有了比较大的变化。首先BD交易从传统的license out延伸到 了NewCo的模式，最大的特点就是能够实现买卖双方更深度的绑定。其次，国内药企BD交易中的首付 款比例显著提高，金额创出新高。另一方面，从技术层面来看，中国创新药行业的研发实力也有显著提 升，中国原 ...

截至2025年7月3日 13:31，中证央企创新驱动指数(000861)下跌0.13%。成分股方面涨跌互现，深南电路 (002916)领涨7.32%，光迅科技(002281)上涨2.21%，中国卫星(600118)上涨1.97%；中国海防(600764)领 跌6.09%，振华重工(600320)下跌2.69%，昊华科技(600378)下跌2.67%。央企创新驱动ETF(515900)下跌 0.14%，最新报价1.46元。拉长时间看，截至2025年7月2日，央企创新驱动ETF近1周累计上涨0.83%， 涨幅排名可比基金1/4。 流动性方面，央企创新驱动ETF盘中换手0.31%，成交1040.13万元。拉长时间看，截至7月2日，央企创 新驱动ETF近1年日均成交2831.57万元，居可比基金第一。 规模方面，央企创新驱动ETF最新规模达33.57亿元，创近1月新高，位居可比基金1/4。 截至7月2日，央企创新驱动ETF近2年净值上涨5.46%。从收益能力看，截至2025年7月2日，央企创新驱 动ETF自成立以来，最高单月回报为15.05%，最长连涨月数为5个月，最长连涨涨幅为24.91%，涨跌月 数比为37/31 ...

Group 1 - The European banking sector delivered its best performance since 1997 in the first half of 2025, with the Stoxx 600 Bank Index rising by 29%, and many leading stocks reaching their highest levels in a decade [1] - The net interest margin, which had benefited from the European Central Bank's interest rate hikes and recovering loan demand, is expected to decline as interest rates are projected to decrease, potentially compressing banks' profit margins [1][4] - Investors will focus on cost control and non-interest income as banks face the challenge of maintaining profitability without the tailwind of significant interest rate hikes [1][4] Group 2 - Valuation recovery has been largely priced in, with Deutsche Bank, UniCredit, and Santander seeing stock price increases between 50% and 80% year-to-date, and their price-to-book ratios moving above the ten-year average [3] - If economic growth falls short of expectations or credit costs rise, current valuations may lack a safety cushion, especially given the weak manufacturing sentiment and ongoing geopolitical risks [3] - M&A-driven premiums are becoming harder to replicate, as evidenced by the cautious stance of potential buyers regarding high premiums and capital usage, with UniCredit's CEO stating they are no longer considering acquiring Deutsche Bank [3] Group 3 - The second half of the year will be determined by the quality of real earnings, cost management, and asset quality cycles, as the market transitions into a period of interest rate cuts and regulatory changes [4] - The key question is which banks can maintain stability and profitability in a cooling market, as this will dictate the sector's performance in the latter half of the year [4]

本报讯 （记者王镜茹）7月1日晚，欣旺达电子股份有限公司（以下简称"欣旺达"）披露，为深入推进 公司全球化战略，打造国际化资本运作平台，提升国际品牌形象及综合竞争力，公司拟发行H股并申请 在香港联合交易所有限公司主板挂牌上市。 目前，欣旺达正积极与相关中介机构就本次发行并上市的相关工作进行商讨。欣旺达相关负责人表示， 若H股发行成功，公司将以此为契机，充分利用境内外两个市场、两种资源，加快国际化战略布局，提 升公司的综合实力和全球影响力，为股东创造更大价值。 国际化步伐提速 作为A股市场锂电池领域的龙头企业之一，欣旺达深耕主业多年，形成了涵盖消费电池、动力电池、储 能系统等多维业务的综合型布局。近年来，随着全球新能源产业的加速演进，公司亦顺应趋势，持续优 化国际业务结构，推进全球化布局。 此次筹划H股发行，被业界普遍视为其国际化战略的关键一步。一方面，中国香港作为国际金融枢纽， 拥有广阔的融资平台和活跃的资本市场，有助于公司拓宽融资渠道、优化资本结构；另一方面，借助中 国香港资本市场的全球辐射力，公司也有望进一步提升国际品牌认知度，增强海外市场拓展能力。 "此次赴港上市，不仅是企业融资行为，更是一次战略再定位 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rise in asset prices is fundamentally a monetary phenomenon, reflecting where funds are directed. The stock market is currently experiencing this shift after the real estate market. The bull market is driven not by a sudden surge in corporate profits but by a systematic redirection of funds from traditional sectors to undervalued core assets in the secondary market, creating a mismatch between liquidity and asset supply [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The banking and insurance sectors in China have undergone a significant value reassessment since last year, accelerating since May 2023, indicating a trend not driven by retail investors [2]. - The valuation of Chinese banking and insurance stocks has been at unprecedented lows, with major banks' price-to-book ratios dropping significantly, such as Bank of China at 0.40 and Agricultural Bank of China at 0.40, marking a historical low [4][5]. - The insurance sector has faced even harsher conditions, with China Life's price-to-embedded value ratio at 0.22 and a price-to-book ratio of 0.6, placing it in the lowest 5% of its historical range [4]. Group 2: Valuation Comparisons - In contrast to Chinese financial institutions, major global banks like JPMorgan have a price-to-book ratio of 2.4, while European and Japanese banks hover around 1.0, highlighting a significant undervaluation of Chinese financial stocks [5]. - The extreme undervaluation of Chinese financial stocks, coupled with dividend yields of 6% to 8%, presents a unique investment opportunity in the global financial market [5]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment and Market Recovery - Since 2020, China's financial system has been in deep adjustment, focusing on reducing shadow banking and addressing real estate and local government debt risks, which has pressured profitability and valuation [6]. - Despite the challenges, this period has led to improved asset quality, with banks achieving a provisioning coverage ratio above 200% and stable capital adequacy ratios [6][7]. - The current policy environment is actively directing liquidity into the equity market, with regulatory measures encouraging insurance companies to allocate a significant portion of new premiums to A-shares [8][9]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The ongoing valuation recovery is seen as just the beginning, with continued monetary supply and a focus on undervalued, high-dividend financial blue-chip stocks expected to absorb market liquidity [10]. - The market is anticipated to experience a gradual bull market, characterized by steady index increases and reduced volatility, until a new phase of large-scale equity financing or a shift in interest rate cycles occurs [10].

专题报告 2025-07-02 PX：投产真空期下的估值修复 报告要点： 本报告围绕国内 PX 产能缺口去看待 PXN 的中枢修复，通过对比 2025 年与 2014-2018 年的产能 缺口、基本面以及估值，认为当前 PX 经过了接近两年的投产空窗期，产能缺口逐渐靠近 2014-2018 年水平，并且近期在高开工的情况下仍然维持去库格局，其估值中枢在没有额外驱 动下，理论上有潜力修复至 2014-2017 年平均水平，即修复至 350 美元/吨左右，节奏上应当 在裕龙石化投产落地前。 刘洁文 能化研究员 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 马桂炎（联系人） 能化研究员 从业资格号：F03136381 13923915659 magy@wkqh.cn 能源化工研究 | PX 一、产能周期对比 在经过连续几年的大投产后，国内 PX 投产进入连续两年的真空期。对于国内 PX 而 言，国内 PTA 投产速度较快，无论裕龙石化是否投产，PX 国内产能缺口在 2025 年 都将扩大。在假设 PTA 产能全部投放的前提下，若裕龙石化投产，国 ...