2025 年 07 月 12 日 市场已演绎出"牛市氛围" 周 回 顾 展 望 相关研究 证券分析师 傅静涛 A0230516110001 fujt@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 韦春泽 A0230524060005 weicz@swsresearch.com 联系人 程翔 (8621)23297818× chengxiang@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 ⚫ 一、A 股大波段上行的线索愈发清晰，关注两个变化：1. 反内卷政策下，中游制造基本 面预期锚定提前向 2026 年切换，短期有弹性的投资机会明显增加。2. 美国美丽大法案 通过加码财政刺激，中期美国深度衰退风险基本排除，这也提升了中国 2026 年供需格 局拐点的可见度。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 策 略 研 究 一 证 券 研 究 报 告 ——申万宏源策略一周回顾展望(25/07/07-25/07/12) - ⚫ 上证指数突破后，A 股积极因素仍在继续累积。A 股大波段上行的线索正愈发 ...

从中期来看，原油市场供需格局调整将主导价格走势。EIA预测，2025年底布伦特原油价格或降至61美 元/桶，2026年进一步下探至59美元/桶，主要基于全球石油库存上升及OPEC+增产的压制。6月 OPEC+会议确认加速推进增产计划，预计9月前完成原定一年半的220万桶/日增产目标，供应宽松预期 持续强化。 需求端则呈现结构性分化。美国夏季出行旺季提振汽油及航空煤油消费，商业原油库存超预期去化；中 国则因汽柴油库存低位、高温及自驾游需求上升，支撑汽油消费稳中向好。然而，一德期货指出，全球 炼厂利润收缩及欧美汽柴油需求峰值已现，边际走弱风险逐渐显现。此外，美联储降息预期升温或短期 提振风险偏好，但难以扭转原油中长期过剩趋势。 综合来看，2025年三季度布伦特油价或围绕60美元/桶震荡，地缘风险反复与OPEC+增产节奏成为关键 变量。若中东局势彻底降温，旺季结束后油价中枢或进一步下探至60美元以下，回归基本面主导的偏空 逻辑。 来源:金融界 近期国际原油市场波动加剧，地缘政治风险与供需基本面博弈成为核心矛盾。2025年6月，中东局势动 荡主导油价先扬后抑，而机构普遍认为，随着伊以停火协议达成及OPEC+增产推进， ...

Wind数据显示，截至当地时间7月11日收盘，伦敦银现货价格上涨3.77%，每盎司价格站上 38美元；COMEX白银期货价格上涨4.74%，每盎司价格突破39美元。白银现货及期货价格 双双创出近14年来新高，今年以来涨幅均超过32%。 白银暴涨势头猛 珠宝交易中心负责人王鸿媛表示，投资银条6月份较5月份销售额提升了20％。现在消费者普 遍对于一公斤的投资银条热度比较高，500克的银条也是消费者比较热衷的。 白银价格上涨主要受哪些方面影响？ 白银价格上涨是避险情绪与工业需求共同作用的结果 。全球地缘政治局势持续紧张，使得市 场避险情绪空前高涨。 黄金价格率先启动，白银等贵金属尽管前期涨幅滞后，但在避险需求 的扩散下，补涨行情汹涌来袭。 工业需求增加也是白银价格上涨的主要原因 。 白银在光伏电池中扮演着举足轻重的角色，光 伏产业发展迅猛，成为白银需求增长的核心驱动力；新能源汽车产业的蓬勃发展同样为白银 需求注入强劲动力，根据世界白银协会统计数据，2024年，混动汽车与纯电汽车的单位白银 用量较传统汽车分别提升了21％和71％。 与此同时， 全球主要产银国的矿山产量增长乏力，难以满足日益增长的市场需求 。 世界白 ...

Price Trends - Import iron ore prices have increased compared to the previous week, with 62% grade iron ore priced at 95.70 USD/ton, up 1.38% from June 27, and 65% grade at 104.98 USD/ton, up 1.72% [1][2] - Domestic iron ore prices have seen a slight decrease, with 66% grade iron concentrate priced at 869 RMB/ton, unchanged from June 27 [1] Supply and Demand - Iron ore arrivals at Chinese ports totaled 24.135 million tons from June 23 to June 29, a decrease of 3.594 million tons week-on-week [2] - The total iron ore inventory at 45 ports in China was 138.784 million tons as of July 4, a decrease of 518,300 tons [3] - The average daily steel mill operating rate was 83.46%, a decrease of 0.36 percentage points week-on-week [3] Shipping and Freight Costs - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was reported at 1436 points, down 85 points week-on-week [2] - Freight costs from Australia to Qingdao were 7.39 USD/ton, an increase of 0.23 USD/ton, while freight from Brazil decreased to 18.58 USD/ton, down 0.12 USD/ton [3] Steel Production - In late June, key steel enterprises produced 21.29 million tons of steel, with an average daily production of 2.129 million tons, a decrease of 0.9% week-on-week [4] - The estimated daily production of steel nationwide was 2.75 million tons, a decrease of 0.9% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanxi coking coal market is experiencing a stable operation with slight supply decreases, while the overall price index remains unchanged compared to the previous period, but shows a significant decline year-on-year [6]. Price Index Summary - The Shanxi coking coal price index stands at 1124 points, unchanged from the previous period, but down 847 points compared to the same period last year [6]. - Specific prices for various types of coking coal include: - Top-grade metallurgical coke wet quenching at 1179 points - Top-grade metallurgical coke dry quenching at 1452 points - Standard-grade metallurgical coke wet quenching at 1029 points - Standard-grade metallurgical coke dry quenching at 1184 points - All these prices remain stable compared to the last period [6]. Market Dynamics - The coking coal market is showing positive trends, with some coking plants raising prices by 50-55 yuan per ton [6]. - Coking enterprises are currently facing losses, with an average loss of 63 yuan per ton and a capacity utilization rate dropping to 72.72%, down 0.48 percentage points from the previous week [6]. - Steel mill demand is improving, leading to smooth shipments from coking enterprises and a rapid decrease in inventory levels [6]. Pricing and Inventory - The mainstream price for standard-grade dry quenching coke in Shanxi is between 1210-1285 yuan per ton [6]. - The spot market for coking coal at ports is stable to slightly strong, with port inventories remaining stable [6]. - The current mainstream cash out-of-port price for standard-grade metallurgical coke is between 1250-1300 yuan per ton [6]. Future Outlook - The combination of smooth shipments, low inventory levels, and a bullish sentiment in the futures market is expected to support a stable to slightly strong operation in the coking coal market in the short term [6].

其次，激发有效需求，拓展市场新空间。在当前经济形势下，促进消费潜力释放已成为推动经济持续健 康发展的重要引擎。今年以来，为了提振消费市场，持续出台了一系列扩内需政策措施，涵盖了减税降 费、优化消费环境、促进消费升级等多个方面。在部分消费品行业，如汽车、家电等，扩内需政策已经 产生了显著效果。为了满足消费者日益增长的多样化需求，还应继续加强政策引导和支持，鼓励新型消 费业态发展。如数字消费、绿色消费、健康消费等新兴业态正逐渐崛起，有望成为消费市场的新亮点。 物价是供需关系的晴雨表。从供给方面来看，我国生产能力强大，同时部分传统领域也存在一定低效产 能。而某些高端领域和关键环节仍存在短板，导致供给结构尚不足以完全满足经济动能的变化。从需求 方面来看，随着居民消费观念的转变，消费者对产品和服务的需求日益多样化、个性化，对供给侧提出 了更高的要求。为了解决这一供需结构性矛盾，需要加强供需两侧政策协同。 首先，优化供给结构，增强产业适配性。提升供给质量和效率，是推动增长动能转换、实现经济高质量 发展的必由之路。这就需要继续深化供给侧结构性改革，用改革的办法推进结构调整，扩大有效供给， 提高供给结构对需求变化的适应性和灵 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the projections for soybean and oilseed production, highlighting changes in planting area, yield, and total supply for the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons [1][2] - For soybeans, the harvested area is expected to decrease slightly from 86.1 million acres to 82.5 million acres, while the yield remains stable at 50.7 bushels per acre for 2024/25 [1] - The total soybean production is projected to decline from 4,366 million bushels to 4,335 million bushels in 2025/26, with a corresponding decrease in total supply from 4,734 million bushels to 4,705 million bushels [1] Group 2 - The oil production is forecasted to remain stable at 28,800 million pounds for 2024/25, with a slight increase in total supply from 30,851 million pounds to 31,871 million pounds in 2025/26 [2] - Domestic usage of oil is expected to decrease from 26,800 million pounds to 26,700 million pounds in 2024/25, while biodiesel usage is projected to drop significantly from 12,900 million pounds to 12,250 million pounds [2] - The total demand for oil is anticipated to decline slightly from 29,400 million pounds to 29,300 million pounds in 2024/25, with an increase in ending stocks from 1,451 million pounds to 1,531 million pounds in 2025/26 [2]

亚洲棕榈油价格飙升至两个月高点，产量下降需求增加，市场供需如何影响未来走势？季节性因素将如 何影响市场？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the pressure on soybean and corn futures ahead of the USDA supply and demand report, questioning whether the market can find hope in export demand [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Soybean and corn futures are facing downward pressure as the USDA supply and demand report approaches [1] - The market is looking for signs of recovery through potential export demand [1] Group 2: USDA Report Implications - The upcoming USDA report is critical for understanding supply and demand dynamics in the agricultural sector [1] - Market participants are closely monitoring the report for insights that could influence future pricing and demand trends [1]

交易咨询业务：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 2025年7月11日 能化产品周报—原油 研究员：刘琛瑞 交易咨询：Z0017093 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 http://www.eafutures .com 免责声明：本报告的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不做任何 保证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考， 报告中的信息或意见并不构成所述证券或期货的买卖出价或征价，投资者据此做出 的任何投 资决策与本公司和作者无关。 地址：上海市虹口区东大名路1089号26层2601-2608单元 基本面信息： 观点：绝对低库存和旺季加持给予油价下方支撑。中期基本面转弱预期较为一致，不过需观察欧佩克实际增产量以及提 防美国贸易谈判风险爆发的时间点。 东亚期货 2 • 1、全球静态库存不高 • 2、成品油旺季需求 • 3、中长期的增产压力 • 4、贸易摩擦带来的长期需求抑制 基本面要点： 东亚期货 3 • 供给：美国（EIA周报）：产量1338.5万桶/日，环比变动-0.36%，同比变动0.64%；美原油净进口量325.6万桶/日，环比变动-29.43%， ...