报 告 正 文 有效融资需求暂显不足。 5月社融同比保持多增，除了政府债融资保持较高规模以外，低利率带动企业债券融资好转。不过，5月信贷依然偏弱，一方面化债对于企 业贷款的替代效应仍然存在，关税政策也继续影响着企业的融资意愿，反映在企业短期贷款和票据融资整体走弱；另一方面，实体部门融资需求仍然偏弱，降息后 居民的加杠杆意愿尚未有明显增强，财政政策有待加力提效 。 财政资金拨付提振M1。 5月M1增速反弹，一是主要受到去年同期整顿存款"手工补息"带来的低基数影响，二是政府债发行前置，企业现金流趋于改善。5月M2增速 小幅回落，主因5月财政多收少支背景下，政府存款对居民和企业存款增长构成一定压制，不过低基数效应仍然存在。5月末，M2-M1增速差收窄，指向财政资金投 放至实体带动企业资金活化程度好转 。 直接融资支撑社融同比延续多增。 2025年5月社会融资规模增量为2.29万亿元，同比多增额收窄至2271亿元，直接融资是主要的支撑。一方面，5月政府债券融资规 模抬升至1.46万亿元，但同比多增额缩减至2367亿元；另一方面，企业债券净融资规模下降至1496亿元，同比多增额扩大至1211亿元。5月人民币贷款规模增加 ...

信贷同比延续少增。 5月份新增人民币贷款6200亿元，同比少增额收窄至3300亿元。其中，居民部门贷款新增540亿元，同比由多减转为少增217亿元，短期贷款减 少208亿元、中长期贷款增加746亿元，从同比变化来看，居民短贷同比多减额略降至451亿元，中长贷同多增额收窄至232亿元。企业部门贷款增加5300亿元，主要 由中长贷和短贷贡献，票据融资较弱，同比少增额降至2100亿元，从分项来看，企业短贷增加1100亿元，同比由多减转为多增2300亿元，企业中长贷增加3300亿 元，同比少增额继续扩大至1700亿元，票据融资规模增加746亿元，同比少增2826亿元 。 报 告 正 文 有效融资需求暂显不足。 5月社融同比保持多增，除了政府债融资保持较高规模以外，低利率带动企业债券融资好转。不过，5月信贷依然偏弱，一方面化债对于企 业贷款的替代效应仍然存在，关税政策也继续影响着企业的融资意愿，反映在企业短期贷款和票据融资整体走弱；另一方面，实体部门融资需求仍然偏弱，降息后 居民的加杠杆意愿尚未有明显增强，财政政策有待加力提效 。 财政资金拨付提振M1。 5月M1增速反弹，一是主要受到去年同期整顿存款"手工补息"带来的 ...

Group 1: Credit and Financing Data - In May 2025, new RMB loans increased by 620 billion, which is 330 billion less year-on-year, with the stock growth rate falling by 0.1 percentage points to 7.1%[3] - Household loans increased by 54 billion, down 21.7 billion year-on-year, with short-term loans decreasing by 20.8 billion and long-term loans increasing by 74.6 billion[3] - Corporate loans increased by 530 billion, down 210 billion year-on-year, with short-term loans up by 110 billion and long-term loans up by 330 billion[5] Group 2: Social Financing and Monetary Supply - Social financing increased by 2.3 trillion in May, up 227.1 billion year-on-year, with a month-end growth rate steady at 8.7%[9] - The largest contributions to social financing came from government bonds (1.4633 trillion, up 236.7 billion year-on-year) and corporate bonds, while RMB loans were the main drag[9] - M2 growth rate remained flat at 7.9%, while M1 growth rate increased to 2.3%, up 0.8 percentage points[11] Group 3: Monetary Policy Outlook - The central bank aims to promote reasonable price recovery as a key consideration for monetary policy, maintaining a loose policy tone throughout 2025[2] - A 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio cut and a 20 basis point interest rate cut are expected within the year[15] - The transition of monetary policy focus to price stability reflects the need to counter economic downturn pressures and external uncertainties[14]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - China's economic growth in April showed resilience overall, with industrial production and exports better than market expectations, while fixed - asset investment and consumption were slightly below expectations [72]. - The Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks led to a "rush to export" to the US in mid - May, but the long - term uncertainty remains [33][72]. - The domestic real estate market is still in the bottom - grinding process, with the decline in real estate development investment widening, which continues to drag down economic growth [72]. - The second - quarter economic growth faces challenges compared to the first quarter, but the "rush to export" factor is beneficial for the stable growth of the second - quarter economy [72]. Summary by Related Content Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to April, national fixed - asset investment increased by 4.0% year - on - year, down from 4.2% in January - March and lower than the market expectation of 4.26% [4][6]. - From January to April, broad infrastructure investment (including electricity) increased by 10.85% year - on - year, down from 11.5% in January - March but higher than the market expectation of 10.0% [6]. - From January to April, manufacturing investment increased by 8.8% year - on - year, down from 9.1% in January - March and lower than the market expectation of 9.1% [6]. - From January to April, national real estate development investment decreased by 10.3% year - on - year, with the decline expanding from 9.9% in January - March [6]. - In high - tech industries, the investment in information services, computer and office equipment manufacturing, aerospace and spacecraft equipment manufacturing, and professional technical services increased by 40.6%, 28.9%, 23.9%, and 17.6% respectively year - on - year [6]. - From January to April, equipment purchase investment increased by 18.2%, with a growth contribution rate of 64.5% [6]. Real Estate Market - From January to April, the sales area of newly built commercial housing nationwide was 28,262 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%, narrowing from a 3.0% decline in January - March [7][9]. - From January to April, the sales volume of newly built commercial housing nationwide was 2.7035 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.2%, with the decline expanding from 2.1% in January - March [9]. - In the first 28 days of May, the average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 240,000 square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 1.5%, with the decline in April being larger and narrowing in May [10][12]. - The national second - hand housing price is still in the bottom - grinding stage, with the decline rate slowing down this year compared to last year [13][15]. Consumption - In April, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 3.7174 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%, lower than the market expectation of 5.5% and down from 5.9% in March [16][18]. - From January to April, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 16.1845 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.7% (3.5% for the whole of last year); excluding automobiles, the retail sales of consumer goods were 14.7005 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.2% (3.8% for the whole of last year) [18]. - In April, the categories with relatively large year - on - year increases in the retail sales of goods by units above the designated size included household appliances and audio - visual equipment, cultural and office supplies, furniture, gold and silver jewelry, sports and entertainment products, and communication equipment, with increases of 38.8%, 33.5%, 26.9%, 25.3%, 23.3%, and 19.9% respectively [21]. Service Industry - In April, the national service industry production index increased by 6.0% year - on - year, down from 6.3% in March [22][24]. - In April, the production indexes of information transmission, software and information technology services, leasing and business services, wholesale and retail, and the financial industry increased by 10.4%, 8.9%, 6.8%, and 6.1% respectively year - on - year, faster than the service industry production index [24]. Foreign Trade - In April, China's exports denominated in US dollars increased by 8.1% year - on - year, higher than the market forecast of 2.0%, and imports decreased by 0.2% year - on - year, better than the market forecast of a 6.0% decrease [25][27]. - In April, China's exports to ASEAN increased by 20.8%, exports to the EU increased by 8.27%, and exports to the US decreased by 21.03% [28][30]. - After the release of the joint statement of the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks on May 12, there was a "rush to ship" in US - bound shipping. The CCFI index of the US - West route on May 23 was significantly higher than that on May 9 [31][33]. Industry - In April, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.1% year - on - year in real terms, higher than the market expectation of 5.2% [34][36]. - In April, the product sales rate of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 97.2%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.2 percentage points [37][39]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the national capacity utilization rate of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 74.1%, 0.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year [40][42]. - From January to April, the operating income of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 43.44 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%, and the total profit was 2.11702 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.4% [45]. - In April, the profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 3.0% year - on - year [43][45]. Finance - In April, the scale of social financing increased by 1.16 trillion yuan, lower than the market expectation of 1.26 trillion yuan [46][48]. - In April, RMB loans in the credit statistics increased by 280 billion yuan, lower than the market expectation of 760 billion yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 450 billion yuan [49][51]. - At the end of April, the balance of broad - money (M2) was 325.17 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.0%, higher than the market expectation of 7.5%; the balance of narrow - money (M1) was 109.14 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%, lower than the market expectation of 3.0% [52][54]. - From January to April, the newly - added medium - and long - term loans of enterprises were 5.83 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 780 billion yuan [55][57]. Employment and Prices - In April, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.1%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [58][60]. - In April, the national consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, in line with the market expectation [61][63]. - In April, the national industrial producer price index (PPI) decreased by 2.7% year - on - year, slightly better than the market expectation of a 2.8% decrease [66][68]. - The 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices continued to decline in May, slightly lower than the same period last year [64][65]. - The bulk commodity index fluctuated horizontally and declined slightly in May, and the PPI in May is expected to remain at a relatively low level [69][71].

Economic Indicators - In April 2025, the new social financing scale increased by 1.16 trillion RMB, down from 5.89 trillion RMB in March, slightly below the market expectation of 1.26 trillion RMB[2] - The year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock in April was +8.7%, an increase from +0.3 percentage points in March[2] - The total amount of new RMB loans in April was only 11% of the average for the same month over the past five years, indicating weak financing demand from the real economy[2] Loan Dynamics - In April, the balance of loans from financial institutions grew by +7.2%, down from +7.4% in the previous month, continuing a downward trend since the beginning of the year[2] - Resident loans decreased by 5.216 trillion RMB in April, with medium- and long-term loans and short-term loans dropping by 1.231 trillion RMB and 4.019 trillion RMB, respectively[3] - Corporate loans increased by 6.1 trillion RMB in April, but this was a year-on-year decrease of 2.5 trillion RMB, with medium- and long-term loans only reaching 48.9% of the average for the past five years[3] Monetary Supply - The M2 growth rate in April was +8.0%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points from the previous month, while M1 growth rate was +1.5%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points[4] - The weak performance of social financing and credit reflects insufficient internal demand, low inflation, and external tariff impacts[4] Market Performance - As of May 16, the CSI REITs index rose by +1.24%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by +0.76%[10] - The average weekly liquidity indicators for nine sectors showed that seven sectors experienced positive changes, indicating improved liquidity conditions[10]

银行角度看 4 月社融：政府债保持高增，透支与预期影响贷款 银行 证券研究报告/行业点评报告 2025 年 05 月 17 日 评级： 增持（维持） | 增持（维持） 评级： | | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 简称 | 股价 | | | EPS | | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | 分析师：戴志锋 | | （元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | | 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 | 江苏银行 | 10.73 | 1.69 | 1.65 | 1.91 | 2.03 | 2.15 | 6.35 | 6.50 | 5.62 | 5.29 | 4.98 | 买入 | | | 渝农商行 | 7.27 | 0.94 | 0.99 | 1.07 ...

行业报告 | 行业专题研究 银行 证券研究报告 4 月金融数据点评：信贷"小月更小" 事件：2025 年 5 月 14 日，央行公布 2025 年 4 月金融统计数据。 （1）4 月人民币贷款新增 2800 亿，同比少增 4500 亿。 （2）4 月新增社融 1.16 万亿，同比少减 1.22 万亿，社融存量同比增速较 2025 年 3 月末提升 0.3pct 至 8.7%。 （3）4 月 M2 同比增长 8.0%，环比提升 1pct；新口径 M1 同比增长 1.5%， 环比下滑 0.1pct；M2-M1 增速剪刀差环比扩张 1.1pct 至 6.5%。 点评： 1.三重因素影响下，信贷"小月更小" 作为传统信贷小月，4 月增量回落本是正常现象。但今年 4 月信贷大幅同比 少增，与 3 月信贷超预期同比多增，形成鲜明对比。对于这一现象，我们 认为有以下三点原因： 其一，信贷前置发力导致储备项目透支严重。4 月对公中长贷新增 2500 亿， 远低于 2020-2024 年同期的均值 5115 亿，同比少增 1600 亿。 其二，季末信贷冲量后，季初月份集中到期压力较大。4 月对公短贷新增 -4800 亿，创历史 ...

Core Viewpoint - The financial data indicates that the policy side continues to exert efforts to stabilize growth, including accelerated issuance and utilization of government bonds, while also highlighting that the recovery speed of domestic demand, particularly in the household sector, still needs to be boosted [1][4][17]. Group 1: Social Financing and Credit - In April, new social financing amounted to 1.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.2 trillion yuan, raising the social financing stock growth rate to 8.7%, the highest since March 2024 [1][4]. - The increase in social financing was significantly influenced by a low base from the previous year, where new social financing in April 2022 was -65.8 billion yuan [4]. - New credit in April was 280 billion yuan, a decrease of 450 billion yuan year-on-year, with corporate bill financing being the main support for credit in April, amounting to 834.1 billion yuan [8][10]. Group 2: Government Bonds and Fiscal Policy - From January to April, net financing of government bonds reached 4.85 trillion yuan, with April's net financing at 976.2 billion yuan, an increase of over 1 trillion yuan year-on-year [4]. - The Ministry of Finance initiated the issuance of special government bonds on April 24, with the issuance pace advanced by about one month compared to 2024, indicating ongoing support for stabilizing growth and domestic demand [4][17]. Group 3: Household Sector and Demand Recovery - In April, household loans decreased by 521.6 billion yuan, indicating a need for improvement in the willingness of households to leverage [14]. - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities saw a year-on-year growth rate drop to -12%, reflecting a cooling in market activity and the need for recovery in household balance sheets [14][17]. Group 4: Monetary Supply - M2 growth rebounded to 8.0%, up 1 percentage point from March, primarily due to a low base effect from the previous year [17]. - The decline in M1 year-on-year was slight at 1.5%, indicating a mixed trend in monetary supply [17].

丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 政府债仍是最主要支撑项——2025 年 4 月金融 数据点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 4 月存量社融同比 8.7%，增速环比提升 0.3 个百分点，从增量结构上来看，政府债仍 为主要贡献项。2025 年 4 月 M1 同比增速为 1.5%，增速环比下降 0.1 个百分点；M2 同比增 速为 8.0%，增速环比提升 1 个百分点。存款结构方面，4 月为税收"大月"，叠加政府债发行， 财政存款收大于支，对企业和居民存款形成一定的挤出效应，另外 4 月债市收益率下行或带动 居民存款分流至理财等非银机构。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 马月 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490125010043 SFC：BVN394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 政府债仍是最主要支撑项—— 2] 2025 年 4 月金融 数据点评 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 2025 年 4 月人民币贷 ...

来源：招商宏观静思录 事件 货币当局更新4月金融数据。 1） 社融新增11585亿，增速8.7%（前值8.4%） 核心观点 核心关注 外部形势变化下，信贷受冲击明显，票据成为支撑信贷增长的主要支柱。 在低基数作用下，社融增速环比走强，触及年内高位。结构上，政府债起到重要作用。 M2同样因基数原因，增速提高1个百分点；M1增速与上月基本持平，仅下降0.1个百分点，反映地产销售具有一定韧性。 在关税对资产形成巨大扰动的形势下，非银金融存款大幅增加，机构避险意愿增强。 企业端，相比居民部门，企业部门受关税影响较为明显。四月，企业信贷新增6100亿（上年同期8600亿）。结构上，企业实际贷款（即：剔除了票据融资 的企业信贷）新增-2300亿，上年同期为0。其中，企业短期贷款新增-4800亿（上年同期-4100亿），中长期贷款2500亿（上年同期4100亿）。票据融资当 月新增8341亿（上年同期8381亿），票据融资占当月信贷新增的297.9%（上年同期114.8%）。 2） 新增人民币贷款2800亿，增速7.2%（前值7.4%） 3） M2同比增长8.0%（前值7.0%），M1增速1.5%（前值1.6%） 结论与启 ...