Group 1 - The convertible bond market is experiencing fluctuations, with the China Securities Convertible Bond and Exchangeable Bond Index down by 0.58% as of November 18, 2025, and the convertible bond ETF (511380) down by 0.41% at a latest price of 13.6 yuan [2] - Year-to-date, the total issuance of bonds by securities firms has reached 1.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.34%, driven by a recovering capital market and low interest rates [2] - The issuance of 58 technology innovation bonds since May has totaled 789.7 billion yuan, with an average oversubscription rate of 3.8 times, indicating strong investor interest [2] Group 2 - The bond market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with government bond issuance decreasing and a balanced funding environment supported by the central bank [3] - The convertible bond market is projected to exhibit significant range-bound characteristics in 2026, influenced by rising expected returns from equity assets and the increasing probability of strong redemptions [3] - The latest size of the convertible bond ETF is 567.10 billion yuan, closely tracking the China Securities Convertible Bond and Exchangeable Bond Index, which reflects the overall performance of convertible and exchangeable bonds listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report indicates that the current bond market has more opportunities than risks, especially from November to December [11]. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week (2025.11.10 - 2025.11.14), the domestic bond market maintained an overall volatile pattern. The yield of 1 - year Treasury bonds rose by 0.59BP to 1.41%, the yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds remained flat at 1.81%, and the yield of 30 - year Treasury bonds fell by 1.00BP to 2.15%. The change in the wording of the third - quarter monetary policy implementation report towards further easing and the warming of inflation data led to a cooling of expectations for further monetary policy easing, resulting in a short - term continuation of the volatile pattern in the bond market [2][10]. - The US bond yield increased last week. The 1 - year US bond yield rose by 7BP to 3.70%, the 2 - year US bond yield rose by 7BP to 3.62%, and the 10 - year US bond yield rose by 3BP to 4.14%. The increasingly hawkish attitude of Fed officials led to a significant cooling of the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in December [11]. - The issuance of Huaxia Anbo Warehouse REIT was very popular, achieving "one - day sell - out". The public offering part of Huaxia Anbo Warehouse REIT, which was launched on November 11, exceeded the initial fundraising scale limit in one day and started the proportional placement [12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Pan - fixed - income Market Review and Observation - **Domestic Bond Market**: The domestic bond market was volatile last week. The change in the monetary policy report's wording and the warming of inflation data affected the market. In the long term, the downward breakthrough of long - term yields depends on economic data and investors' risk preferences. Overall, the bond market from November to December has more opportunities than risks [10][11]. - **US Bond Market**: The US bond yield increased last week. The hawkish attitude of Fed officials and the under - expected auction yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds led to a significant cooling of the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in December [11]. - **REITs Market**: The CSI REITs Total Return Index rose by 0.86% last week, with the transportation, affordable housing, consumption, and warehousing and logistics sectors leading the rise, while the municipal environmental protection and data center sectors falling. The issuance of Huaxia Anbo Warehouse REIT was very popular [12]. 3.2. Public Fund Market Dynamics - The issuance of Huaxia Anbo Warehouse REIT was very popular, achieving "one - day sell - out". The public offering part exceeded the initial fundraising scale limit in one day, and the public investor subscription confirmation ratio was 5.83%, while the offline investor confirmation ratio was as low as 0.68% [12][13]. 3.3. Pan - fixed - income Fund Index Performance Tracking - **Performance Statistics**: - The money enhancement index rose by 0.03% last week, with a cumulative return of 4.30% since its establishment [4]. - The short - term bond fund selection index rose by 0.03% last week, with a cumulative return of 4.48% since its establishment [4]. - The medium - and long - term bond fund selection index rose by 0.07% last week, with a cumulative return of 6.82% since its establishment [4]. - The low - volatility fixed - income + fund selection index rose by 0.07% last week, with a cumulative return of 4.78% since its establishment [4]. - The medium - volatility fixed - income + fund selection index rose by 0.04% last week, with a cumulative return of 6.12% since its establishment [4]. - The high - volatility fixed - income + fund selection index fell by 0.06% last week, with a cumulative return of 8.11% since its establishment [4]. - The convertible bond fund selection index rose by 0.03% last week, with a cumulative return of 23.54% since its establishment [4]. - The QDII bond fund selection index rose by 0.08% last week, with a cumulative return of 10.35% since its establishment [4]. - The REITs fund selection index rose by 1.67% last week, with a cumulative return of 33.81% since its establishment [4]. - **Index Positioning**: - **Money Enhancement Strategy Index**: Aims at liquidity management, pursues a curve that surpasses money funds and rises smoothly, and mainly allocates money market funds and inter - bank certificate of deposit index funds [17]. - **Short - term Bond Fund Selection Index**: Aims at liquidity management, pursues a smooth upward curve on the basis of ensuring drawdown control, and mainly configures 5 funds with stable long - term returns, strict drawdown control, and significant absolute return capabilities [19]. - **Medium - and Long - term Bond Fund Selection Index**: Aims to obtain stable returns by investing in medium - and long - term pure bond funds, controls drawdowns, and tries to obtain excess returns relative to the medium - and long - term bond fund index. It selects funds with both returns and drawdown control, and flexibly adjusts the duration and the proportion of credit bond funds and interest rate bond funds according to market conditions [21]. - **Low - volatility Fixed - income + Selection Index**: The equity center is positioned at 10%, and 10 funds are selected each period. It focuses on selecting fixed - income + targets with an equity center within 15% in the past three years and recently, and emphasizes the holding experience [22]. - **Medium - volatility Fixed - income + Selection Index**: The equity center is positioned at 20%, and 5 funds are selected each period. It selects fixed - income + targets with an equity center between 15% and 25% in the past three years and recently, and focuses on the performance - risk cost - effectiveness [25]. - **High - volatility Fixed - income + Selection Index**: The equity center is positioned at 30%, and 5 funds are selected each period. It selects fixed - income + targets with an equity center between 25% and 35% in the past three years and recently, and focuses on selecting targets with strong stock - picking ability and certain offensiveness on the equity side [26][29]. - **Convertible Bond Fund Selection Index**: Selects bond - type funds with the average proportion of convertible bond investment in bond market value greater than or equal to 60% in the latest period and greater than or equal to 80% in the past four quarters as the sample space. It constructs an evaluation system from multiple dimensions and selects 5 funds to form the index [30]. - **QDII Bond Fund Selection Index**: Selects 6 funds with stable returns and good risk control based on the credit and duration of overseas bonds to form the index [33]. - **REITs Fund Selection Index**: Selects 10 funds with stable operation, reasonable valuation, and certain elasticity based on the underlying asset types of REITs to form the index [34].

周度报告-国债期货 [Table_Summary] ★一周复盘：国债期货窄幅震荡 本周（11.10-11.16）国债期货窄幅震荡。周一，周末公布的 10 月通胀数据超预期，早盘现券利率上行，但由于科技股震荡调 整，国债期货震荡转涨，曲线走平。周二，市场消息面较为平 静，成交相对清淡。上午股市震荡走弱，国债期货小幅拉升， 午后股市低位震荡，市场担忧费率新规落地，国债期货转而走 弱。周三，央行昨日晚间公布的 Q3 货政报告表述整体中性，股 市中光伏、科技板块表现偏弱，红利板块走强，国债期货小幅 上涨。周四，市场消息面平静，股市持续上涨，锂电、有色等 板块涨幅靠前，国债期货震荡下跌。尾盘公布的 10 月金融数据 多数表现偏弱，但债市反应不大。周五，早盘统计局公布的 10 月经济数据普遍不及预期，股市震荡略偏弱，债市小幅走强； 午间股市跌幅扩大，但债市较为担忧买断式逆回购缩量而下 跌，尾盘债市担忧情绪有所缓解。截至 11 月 14 日收盘，两 年、五年、十年和三十年期国债期货主力合约结算价分别为 102.446、105.850、108.390 和 116.070 元，分别较上周末变动- 0.026、-0.070、-0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market showed slight recovery on November 12, with long-term bonds strengthening first, while the overall market remains in a state of fluctuation without a clear trend [1] Market Performance - The closing prices for government bond futures showed an increase across the board, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.09% to 116.45, the 10-year main contract up by 0.02% to 108.52, and the 5-year main contract increasing by 0.03% to 105.97 [2] - The yields on major interbank bonds generally decreased slightly, with the 30-year government bond yield down by 1 basis point to 2.143% and the 10-year government bond yield down by 0.4 basis points to 1.8% [2] Overseas Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields fell collectively, with the 2-year yield down by 3.95 basis points to 3.551% and the 10-year yield down by 5.25 basis points to 4.062% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields mostly increased, with the 3-year yield up by 0.3 basis points to 1.051% [3] - In the Eurozone, 10-year bond yields for France, Germany, Italy, and Spain all decreased slightly, indicating a similar trend to the U.S. market [3] Primary Market - The Ministry of Finance reported weighted average winning yields for 91-day and 182-day government bonds at 1.2271% and 1.3162%, respectively, with bid-to-cover ratios of 2.95 and 2.44 [4] - Agricultural Development Bank's financial bonds had winning yields of 1.4013%, 1.7128%, and 1.9291% for 1.074-year, 3-year, and 10-year maturities, with bid-to-cover ratios of 4, 5.08, and 2.92 [4] Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation with a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 1300 billion yuan for the day [5] - Short-term Shibor rates fell across the board, with the overnight rate down by 9.3 basis points to 1.415% [5] Institutional Views - Institutions suggest that the bond market may experience further declines in November and December due to limited credit growth and structural opportunities in credit bonds [7] - The central bank's recent measures to regulate interest rates are expected to create more room for easing, which could positively impact the bond market [7] - Recommendations include focusing on coupon strategies and short-duration credit bonds, while also considering flexible long-end operations to enhance returns [7]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the stock market is expected to continue fluctuating around the 4000-point mark of the Shanghai Composite Index, with a notable acceleration in style and sector rotation [2][12] - It is suggested to maintain a cautious approach, focusing on opportunities in technology, new energy, and electricity sectors during the fluctuations and rotations [2][12] - The bond market is anticipated to remain in a range-bound oscillation, with insufficient momentum for sustained buying and limited downward space for interest rates [1][12] Group 2 - Recent market events include the suspension of a 24% tariff on U.S. imports, effective from November 10, 2025, which may influence trade dynamics [9] - The report highlights that the A-share market has shown strong sentiment, with various sectors such as banking, coal, electricity, and chemicals performing well [10] - The report notes that the average daily trading volume in the market has decreased to 20,124 billion yuan, reflecting a rise in cautious sentiment among investors [19]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is likely to continue to fluctuate. The central bank's restart of buying and selling government bonds is positive for bond market sentiment in the short - term. In the medium - term, the bond market in the fourth quarter is mainly affected by fundamentals, the implementation time of the new fund fee regulations, and institutional allocation power. Overall, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market in the fourth quarter may improve, and the market may maintain a volatile trend under the background of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations. The bond market is expected to recover with fluctuations, and the long - term strategy is to buy on dips [14][15]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Economic and Policy Situation**: In October, the manufacturing PMI was lower than expected, with both supply and demand under pressure. The non - manufacturing PMI met expectations and showed a slight improvement. The "anti - involution" has boosted price expectations, but the coordination between demand and production needs further observation. In terms of exports, October's export data was lower than expected, with exports to the US declining and non - US exports maintaining resilience. The Fourth Plenary Session emphasized achieving the annual economic and social development goals, and as the economic growth rate in the first three quarters was relatively high, the pressure to achieve the goal this year is not large. Policy may focus more on policies for the connection with next year, and there is no strong need for additional measures in the fourth quarter. Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates in October, and subsequent inflation and employment data will indicate whether there will be a rate cut in December [11]. - **Major Events**: The People's Bank of China and the Bank of Korea renewed the bilateral local currency swap agreement with a scale of 400 billion yuan/70 trillion won for five years. On November 5, the Ministry of Finance issued 4 billion US dollars of sovereign bonds in Hong Kong, which were well - received by the market. The State Council Tariff Commission adjusted the tariff measures on US - originated goods. Some Fed officials expressed their views on interest rate cuts, and US financial system liquidity was approaching a dangerous level. China's October export and import data were released, and the foreign exchange reserve scale increased slightly [11][12][13]. - **Liquidity**: This week, the central bank conducted 495.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 2.068 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1.5722 trillion yuan. The DR007 interest rate closed at 1.43% [14]. - **Interest Rates**: The latest 10 - year Treasury yield was 1.81%, up 1.14 BP week - on - week; the 30 - year Treasury yield was 2.16%, up 1.00 BP week - on - week; the latest 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.11%, unchanged week - on - week [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: The recommended strategy is to buy on dips for a 6 - month period, with a profit - loss ratio of 3:1. The core driving logic is loose monetary policy and the difficulty of credit improvement [16]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Contract Performance**: Presented the closing prices, annualized discounts, settlement prices, and net basis of T, TL, TF, and TS contracts, as well as the closing prices and trading volumes of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts [19][23][26][29][31][36]. 3. Main Economic Data - **Domestic Economy** - **GDP and PMI**: In the third quarter of 2025, the actual GDP growth rate was 4.8%, exceeding market expectations. In October, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous value, while the service PMI was 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage point [41]. - **Manufacturing PMI Sub - items**: In October, both supply and demand in the manufacturing industry were under pressure. The production index decreased by 2.2 percentage points to 49.5%, and the new order index decreased by 0.9 percentage points. Domestic demand recovery was still insufficient [47]. - **Price Index**: In September, CPI同比 decreased by 0.3%, core CPI同比 increased by 1.0%, and PPI同比 decreased by 2.3%. In terms of month - on - month data, CPI环比 was 0.1%, core CPI环比 was 0.0%, and PPI环比 was 0.0% [50]. - **Export and Import**: In October 2025, China's import and export data were slightly lower than expected. Exports (in US dollars) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.0% year - on - year. Exports to the US decreased by 25.1% year - on - year, while exports to ASEAN maintained a relatively high growth rate of 10.9% year - on - year [53]. - **Industrial and Consumption Data**: In September, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value was 6.4%, and the year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail sales was 3.0%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous value [56]. - **Investment and Real Estate**: From January to September, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 0.5%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate investment was - 13.9%. In September, the month - on - month growth rate of second - hand housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities was - 0.6%, and the year - on - year growth rate was - 5.2% [59]. - **Foreign Economy** - **US Economy**: In the second quarter, the US GDP at current prices on an annualized basis was 3.0331 trillion US dollars, with an actual year - on - year growth rate of 1.99% and a quarter - on - quarter growth rate of 3.0%. In September, the US CPI and core CPI data were released, and the ISM manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMI data were also reported. In August, the order amount of durable goods increased by 7.63% year - on - year, and the number of non - farm payrolls increased by 22,000 [68][71][74]. - **EU and Eurozone Economy**: In the third quarter, the EU GDP increased by 1.5% year - on - year and 0.3% quarter - on - quarter. In September, the eurozone CPI and core CPI data were released, and in October, the manufacturing and service PMI data were reported [74][77]. 4. Liquidity - **Money Supply and Social Financing**: In September, the M1 growth rate was 7.2%, and the M2 growth rate was 8.4%. The M1 - M2 gap continued to narrow. The social financing increment was 3.53 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 233.9 billion yuan. The growth of social financing mainly came from government bonds [82]. - **Social Financing Sub - items**: In September, the year - on - year growth rate of government bonds in social financing slowed down, and the financing of the real - economy sector remained stable. The social financing growth rate of the household and enterprise sectors was 5.94%, and the growth rate of government bonds was 20.20% [85]. - **MLF and Reverse Repurchase**: In September, the MLF balance was 5.85 trillion yuan, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan. This week, the central bank conducted 2.068 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 867.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 1.2008 trillion yuan. The DR007 interest rate closed at 1.46% [88]. 5. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - **Interest Rate Changes**: Presented the latest interest rates, daily, weekly, and monthly changes of various types of interest rates, including repurchase rates, Treasury bond yields, and US Treasury bond yields [92]. - **Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Charts**: Presented charts of Treasury bond yields, inter - bank pledged repurchase rates, US Treasury bond yields, Treasury bond yields of the UK, France, Germany, and Italy, the Fed's target interest rate, and exchange rates [95][97][100].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market institutions reached re - balance under the policy events in October after the redemption panic before October. The current bond market has fully priced in the resumption of treasury bond trading, and the central bank's move is mainly to support fiscal efforts and supplement bank liquidity, with a neutral impact on the bond market in the medium - to - long - term [1][8][10]. - In October, the bond market yield declined rapidly under Trump's tariff measures, but the decline was much smaller than in April. After the Sino - US economic and trade consultations, the bond market yield did not show an obvious rebound. Investors have certain "learning ability", and the bond market prices faster but with a smaller decline in yield. The long - position sentiment in the bond market has recovered, but institutions are more cautious compared to April [1][17][18]. - The bond market is likely to maintain a volatile trend. It is recommended to adopt a dumbbell - shaped strategy, appropriately control the duration level in trading, seize trading opportunities from oversold rebounds, and pay attention to reverse operations [1][22]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 11 - month Bond Market Outlook - The expectation of the central bank's resumption of treasury bond trading started when large banks continuously bought short - term bonds in the secondary market and was realized after Governor Pan Gongsheng's announcement. The bond market yield generally declined on the day of the announcement, and institutions' behavior in bond trading has changed compared to 2024 [8][9]. - The central bank's move is to support fiscal efforts and supplement bank liquidity. It helps the central bank make more policy reserves, enhances the flexibility of central bank regulation, and eases the pressure on banks' liability side [10]. - The tariff measures in October had a different impact on the bond market compared to April. Investors have become more rational, and institutions' bond - buying behavior has changed. The bond market is expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as the new regulations on public fund redemption fees and the equity market [17][18][22]. 3.2 10 - month Bond Market Review 3.2.1 Bond Market Trend Review - In the first week, the 10 - year treasury bond rate declined to 1.82%. In the second week, it fluctuated narrowly and closed at 1.82%. In the third week, it rose to 1.85%. In the fourth week, it declined to 1.80%. The market was affected by factors such as tariff games, policy expectations, and the resumption of treasury bond trading [24][25][26]. 3.2.2 Funding Situation - The central bank net - injected 47 billion yuan through four major tools. The funding situation was balanced and loose in October. The average monthly values of R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 declined, and the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance rate and other rates showed different trends [27][28]. 3.2.3 Secondary Market Trend - The long - term interest rate had a ceiling and a floor. Except for the 1 - year treasury bond, the yields of other key - term treasury bonds declined, and most of the term spreads narrowed [35]. 3.2.4 Bond Market Sentiment - In October, the weekly turnover rate of 30 - year treasury bonds decreased compared to September. The 30Y - 10Y treasury bond spread narrowed, the bank - to - bank leverage ratio declined, and the median duration of bond funds increased [43]. 3.2.5 Bond Supply - The net financing of interest - rate bonds continued to decline in October, while the net financing of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased significantly. The issuance scale of treasury bonds, local government bonds, and policy - financial bonds changed compared to September and 2024 [54][56][60]. 3.3 Economic Data - In October, the manufacturing supply and demand weakened, while the service industry expanded rapidly. The real - estate transaction was weak year - on - year, and travel performance was stronger than the seasonal average. Industrial production improved marginally, and infrastructure and price high - frequency data showed different trends [62][63][67]. 3.4 Overseas Bond Market - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates again in October, and there were internal disagreements. The UK and German bond markets rose, and most emerging markets also showed an upward trend. The 10 - year Sino - US treasury bond yield spread narrowed [74][75][77]. 3.5 Major Asset Performance - In October, the Shanghai Gold and Shanghai Copper strengthened, while live pigs and crude oil weakened. The performance order of major assets was: Shanghai Gold > Shanghai Copper > US Dollar > Rebar > Chinese - funded US Dollar Bonds > Chinese Bonds > Convertible Bonds > CSI 300 > CSI 1000 > Crude Oil > Live Pigs [80]. 3.6 Policy Review - Multiple policies and events occurred in October and November, including the APEC meeting, the Sino - US leaders' meeting, and the release of policies related to funds, trusts, and the "15th Five - Year Plan". Future attention should be paid to the implementation and impact of these policies [84][85][90].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a downward trend in yields due to the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) upcoming resumption of open market operations for government bonds, which is expected to benefit the financial system's liabilities in the short term, although the preference for risk among investors may limit the extent of interest rate declines [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of October 30, the interbank bond market yields have shown a downward trend, with the 3-month government bond yield decreasing by 2 basis points to 1.30%, the 2-year yield stabilizing around 1.41%, and the 10-year yield falling by 1 basis point to 1.81% [2]. - The resumption of government bond trading by the PBOC, which had been paused for 10 months, is expected to significantly impact the market, especially in the context of increased issuance of government and local bonds [2][3]. - Analysts suggest that the current yield curve may have adjusted to a level acceptable to the PBOC, with limited interest rate risk and potential for further steepening of the curve [2][3]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - There is a cautious optimism among institutions regarding the extent of the bond market's upward movement, as the expectation of the PBOC's actions had already been priced in by the market [3][4]. - The market is advised to remain rational about the potential for further declines in interest rates, particularly for long-term bonds, as the impact of the PBOC's bond purchases may already be reflected in current yield levels [3][4]. - The focus for investors will shift to the potential for further monetary easing, with discussions around whether the resumption of bond purchases signals a broader easing of monetary policy [2][3]. Group 3: Strategic Recommendations - Institutions are encouraged to monitor potential adjustment pressures following the positive news regarding bond purchases, as the market may switch to a support logic for short-term bonds [4]. - It is suggested that investors consider small-scale operations in response to the PBOC's bond purchase news, with a more favorable market environment anticipated towards the end of the year [4]. - The bond market is expected to remain in a volatile range, with the 10-year government bond likely oscillating between 1.8% and 1.9%, and investors may consider reverse interest rate strategies [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][3] Core Viewpoints - The central bank's suspension and resumption of treasury bond trading may reflect its policy intention to maintain yield stability, and the bond market's long - term yield may fluctuate within a range in the next stage [1][3] - The price discovery significance of treasury bond trading operations is stronger than the liquidity adjustment significance, and the current interest rate and spread levels may be within the central bank's desirable range [3] - If the base money injection scale formed by treasury bond trading is close to or higher than the same period last year, it may replace reserve requirement ratio cuts [3] Summary by Related Content Reasons for the Central Bank's Actions - At the beginning of this year, considering the large imbalance pressure in the bond market supply - demand and accumulated market risks, the central bank suspended treasury bond trading. Now, with the change in supply - demand contradictions, the central bank will resume the operation. On the supply side, the proportion of government bonds in social financing has been increasing; on the demand side, due to the blocked decline in interest rates and higher expected returns in the stock market, the bond market has lost its previous strong position among major asset classes [3] Impact on M2 Growth - As of September this year, the year - on - year growth rate of China's base money injection was 1.86%. Assuming the year - end base money year - on - year growth rate remains at 1.86% and the money multiplier reaches 8.9 (the highest in August this year), the corresponding M2 year - on - year growth rate is only 6.4% (Scenario 1) [3] - If an additional 50 billion yuan of base money is injected on the basis of Scenario 1, the year - end M2 year - on - year growth rate will reach 7.8% (Scenario 2), lower than the 9 - month growth rate (8.4%) but higher than the 2024 M2 growth rate (7.3%) [3] - To keep the year - end M2 year - on - year growth rate at 8.4% (the same as in September) without reserve requirement ratio cuts, an additional 70 billion yuan of base money needs to be injected on the basis of Scenario 1 (Scenario 3) [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current uncertainty in tariff progress is high, and the short - term decline in market risk appetite is conducive to the repair of the bond market. In the fourth quarter, the bond market still needs to focus on the fundamentals and institutional allocation power. The bond market is expected to maintain an overall shock under the background of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations. If the stock market cools down and the allocation power gradually increases, the bond market is expected to repair shockingly [11]. - The economic growth rate in the third quarter slightly exceeded expectations. Exports were resilient in September, and the growth rate of industrial added value exceeded expectations. However, the growth rates of consumption and investment continued to slow down. In the future, attention should be paid to the driving effect of new policy - based financial instruments and the incremental debt balance limit of 500 billion yuan on the growth rate in the fourth quarter [11]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation Economic and Policy Situation - The GDP growth rate in the third quarter exceeded expectations, showing a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. In September, industrial added value remained resilient, while the consumption and investment sectors continued to recover weakly. The "anti - involution" has boosted price expectations, but the coordination between demand and production still needs to be observed. The Fourth Plenary Session emphasized achieving the annual economic and social development goals, and the pressure to achieve the goals this year is not great. Policy may focus more on the connection with next year, and there is no strong need for additional measures in the fourth quarter. Overseas, the US inflation data in September was slightly lower than expected, strengthening the logic of further interest rate cuts [10]. - In the first three quarters, China's GDP was 1,015,036 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 5.2% at constant prices. In September, social consumer goods retail sales were 419.71 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. From January to September, national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 3,715.35 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. In September, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.5% year - on - year [10]. - From January to September, the sales area of newly built commercial housing in China was 658.35 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%. National real estate development investment was 677.06 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 722.99 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 8.4% [10]. - The new Japanese Prime Minister is preparing an economic stimulus plan worth more than 13.9 trillion yen (about $92.19 billion) [10]. - In the first three quarters of this year, China's total foreign - related payments and receipts reached $11.6 trillion, a record high for the same period. Cross - border capital inflows were $119.7 billion, and the bank settlement and sales surplus was $63.2 billion, both higher than the same period last year. In September, the cross - border income and expenditure of non - bank sectors such as enterprises and individuals totaled $1.37 trillion, a month - on - month increase of 7% [10]. - On the morning of October 25, the economic and trade teams of China and the United States began economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia [10]. - In September, the US unadjusted CPI increased by 3% year - on - year, lower than the expected 3.1%. The core CPI increased by 3% year - on - year, also lower than the expected 3.1% [10]. - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in October was 52.2, and the service PMI preliminary value was 55.2, both exceeding expectations [10]. Liquidity - This week, the central bank conducted 867.2 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with 789.1 billion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net investment of 78.1 billion yuan. The DR007 interest rate closed at 1.41% [11]. Interest Rates - The latest 10 - year treasury bond yield was 1.85%, a week - on - week increase of 2.52 BP; the 30 - year treasury bond yield was 2.21%, a week - on - week increase of 1.20 BP. The latest 10 - year US treasury bond yield was 4.02%, with no week - on - week change [11]. Summary - The current bond market is expected to maintain an overall shock. In terms of rhythm, attention should be paid to the seesaw effect between stocks and bonds. If the stock market cools down and the allocation power gradually increases, the bond market is expected to repair shockingly [11]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - The report presents the closing prices, annualized discounts, settlement prices, and net basis of T, TL, TF, and TS contracts, as well as the closing prices and trading volumes of TS and TF contracts [16][22][25][28]. 3. Main Economic Data Domestic Economy - In the second quarter of 2025, China's GDP actual growth rate was 5.4%, exceeding market expectations. In September, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous value, while the service PMI was 50.1%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous value [45]. - In September, the CPI decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 1.0% year - on - year. The PPI decreased by 2.3% year - on - year. In terms of month - on - month data, the CPI increased by 0.1%, the core CPI remained unchanged, and the PPI remained unchanged [54]. - In September, China's exports increased by 8.3% year - on - year, and imports increased by 7.4% year - on - year. Exports to the US decreased by 27.0% year - on - year, while exports to ASEAN increased by 15.6% year - on - year [57]. - In September, the industrial added value increased by 6.4% year - on - year, and the social consumer goods retail sales increased by 3.0% year - on - year [60]. - From January to September, fixed - asset investment decreased by 0.5% year - on - year, real estate development investment decreased by 13.9% year - on - year, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased by 1.1% year - on - year, and manufacturing investment increased by 4.0% year - on - year [63]. - In September, the new construction area of houses decreased by 18.9% year - on - year, and the construction area of houses decreased by 9.4% year - on - year [66]. - In September, the completion - end data decreased by 15.45% year - on - year, and the new - house sales data in 30 large - and medium - sized cities weakened recently [69]. Foreign Economy - In the second quarter, the US GDP nominal annualized figure was $3,033.1 billion, with an actual year - on - year growth rate of 1.99% and a quarter - on - quarter growth rate of 3.0%. In September, the US unadjusted CPI increased by 3% year - on - year [72]. - In August, the US durable goods orders were $312.4 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.63%. The seasonally - adjusted non - farm employment population increased by 22,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.3% [75]. - In September, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 49.1, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50. In the second quarter, the EU GDP increased by 1.5% year - on - year and 0.2% quarter - on - quarter [78]. - In September, the eurozone CPI increased by 2.2% year - on - year, the core CPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month. The manufacturing PMI was 49.8, and the service PMI was 51.3 [81]. 4. Liquidity - In September, the M1 growth rate was 7.2%, and the M2 growth rate was 8.4%. The M1 - M2 scissors difference continued to narrow. The social financing increment was 3.53 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 233.9 billion yuan [86]. - In September, the growth rate of social financing in the government bond segment slowed down, while the financing of the real - economy sector remained stable. The social financing growth rate of residents and enterprises was 5.94%, and the government bond growth rate was 20.20% [89]. - In September, the MLF balance was 5.85 trillion yuan, and the net MLF investment was 300 billion yuan. This week, the central bank conducted 867.2 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 78.1 billion yuan, and the DR007 interest rate closed at 1.41% [92]. 5. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The report presents the changes in various market interest rates including repurchase rates, treasury bond yields, and US treasury bond yields [95]. - The report also shows the trends of treasury bond yields, bank - to - bank pledged repurchase rates, US treasury bond yields, and exchange rates [99][102][104].