Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index rose by 1.41%, with the Hang Seng Tech Index surging by 3.49% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increasing by 1.78% on September 17, with a half-day trading volume of HKD 192.36 billion [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Tech ETF (159101) gained 2.71%, with notable increases in component stocks such as SMIC (+5.70%), SenseTime-W (+5.26%), Meituan-W (+5.18%), Alibaba-W (+5.02%), and Tencent Holdings (+2.09%) [1] - The market anticipates a greater than 90% probability of the Federal Reserve restarting interest rate cuts in September, with probabilities exceeding 70% for cuts in October and December [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are expected to facilitate global capital reallocation, potentially benefiting Chinese assets amid a backdrop of global monetary system restructuring, with a combination of US dollar depreciation and a reversal of innovative narratives [2] - If policies are effectively managed, Chinese assets may benefit from the dual dividends of accelerated capital repatriation and global capital rebalancing, with some funds possibly flowing into the Chinese capital market [2] - In the context of renminbi appreciation and strengthened expectations for Fed rate cuts, there is optimism for a "catch-up" rally in Hong Kong stocks, shifting focus from "takeout narratives" to "AI narratives," particularly in the tech and internet sectors [2] Group 3 - Relevant ETFs include the Hong Kong Stock Connect Tech ETF (159101) for the tech sector and the Hang Seng Internet ETF (513330) for internet leaders [3]

Group 1 - The external constraints are weakening, allowing for a more accommodative monetary policy in China, with two interest rate cuts since the beginning of the current easing cycle [1] - The depreciation of the US dollar has led to differentiated exchange rate gains and losses, with the USD/CNY rate declining from 7.3 to around 7.1 since 2025, easing the debt repayment pressure for companies holding USD loans [1] - The easing of monetary policy is expected to enhance the attractiveness of Chinese assets, benefiting from global liquidity influx and a restructuring of the global monetary system, with a potential return of foreign capital to the Chinese market [1] Group 2 - Foreign capital allocation is focusing on core assets characterized by distinct trends, with significant increases in the software and services, and technology hardware sectors in Hong Kong stocks, driven by advancements in AI technologies [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect and QDII funds are highlighted as investment vehicles for technology-related ETFs, such as the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (159101) and the Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) [1]

美联储降息往往伴随全球资金再配置。降息促进全球资金流动性释放，中国资产可能相对收益，尤其是 在当前全球货币体系重构背景下，美元贬值和创新叙事反转相结合，两者反映的全球货币秩序重构可能 是本轮市场行情的核心驱动力，新货币秩序下人民币资产相对受益；如果政策应对得当，人民币资产有 望受益于全球货币体系加速碎片化、多元化的双重红利——碎片化加速中国在海外的资金回流，多元化 驱动全球资金再平衡，或有部分资金流向中国资本市场。美联储重启降息或将促进全球资金流动性释 放、对美元汇率形成一定下行压力，从而有望进一步推动全球资金再配置。 美联储于2024年9月开启本轮降息周期，2024年降息三次，但2025年以来在多方不确定性因素影响下暂 未降息。 近期美国通胀压力不大、就业趋弱，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔会议上释放鸽派信号，市场对美降 息预期再度升温。9月11日公布的美国8月CPI同比增长2.9%、核心CPI同比增长3.1%，较上月的 2.7%/3.0%略有上行但幅度不大；9月5日公布的8月非农就业人数增加2.2万，低于市场预期，继此前大 幅下修就业数据后，9日劳工部发布的初步修订数据显示2024年4月至2025年3月美国 ...

Group 1 - Market expectations for the Federal Reserve to restart interest rate cuts have increased significantly, with probabilities exceeding 90% for September and over 70% for October and December [1] - The Federal Reserve began its rate cut cycle in September 2024, with three cuts planned for that year, but has not cut rates since 2025 due to various uncertainties [1] Group 2 - The impact of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts on Chinese assets can be analyzed through three main aspects: easing external constraints on China's monetary policy, potential depreciation of the dollar leading to a stronger yuan, and global capital reallocation [2] - A weaker dollar may affect export-oriented companies and those with dollar-denominated debts, but it could also reduce repayment pressures for companies with dollar loans [2] - The combination of dollar depreciation and a shift in global monetary order may drive a bullish trend in Chinese equity markets, benefiting from the fragmentation and diversification of the global monetary system [2]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to restart interest rate cuts in September 2024, with three cuts anticipated in 2024, but no cuts since then due to various uncertainties [1] - Recent U.S. inflation data shows a slight increase, with the August CPI rising 2.9% year-on-year and core CPI at 3.1%, compared to 2.7% and 3.0% respectively in the previous month [1] - Non-farm employment data for August indicates an increase of 22,000 jobs, which is below market expectations, and a significant downward revision of 911,000 jobs for the period from April 2024 to March 2025 [1] Group 2 - The market probability for the Federal Reserve to cut rates in September exceeds 90%, with probabilities for cuts in October and December also above 70% [1][3] - Historical analysis shows that during previous Fed rate cut cycles, sectors such as non-bank financials and growth stocks in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks tend to perform well [6][7] - In the short term (around 11 weeks), sectors benefiting from market activity, such as non-bank financials, have shown strong performance, while in the medium term (around 20 weeks), sectors like computers, electronics, and communications in A-shares have led in gains [6][7]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to restart interest rate cuts in September 2024, with three cuts anticipated in 2024, but no cuts have occurred in 2025 due to various uncertainties [2][4] - Recent U.S. inflation data shows a slight increase, with the August CPI rising to 2.9% year-on-year and core CPI at 3.1%, compared to the previous month's figures of 2.7% and 3.0% respectively [2][4] - Employment data indicates a weaker job market, with only 22,000 jobs added in August, falling short of market expectations, and a significant downward revision of 911,000 jobs in the initial employment statistics from April 2024 to March 2025 [2][3] Group 2 - The Fed's interest rate cuts may alleviate external constraints on China's monetary policy, as China has already implemented two rate cuts since the Fed's current easing cycle began [6] - A weaker U.S. dollar is anticipated as a result of the Fed's cuts, with the dollar to RMB exchange rate declining from approximately 7.3 at the beginning of 2025 to around 7.1 recently, impacting export-oriented companies and those with dollar-denominated debts [6] - The Fed's rate cuts typically lead to a global reallocation of funds, potentially benefiting Chinese assets, especially in the context of a restructuring global monetary system [6] Group 3 - Historical analysis of past Fed rate cut cycles shows that growth-oriented stocks in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks tend to perform well, while dividend-focused stocks lag behind [7] - In the first 11 weeks following the Fed's cuts, non-bank financial sectors in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have shown strong performance, while sectors like coal, utilities, and transportation have underperformed [7] - Over a 20-week period, sectors such as computer, electronics, and communication in A-shares, as well as hardware, semiconductors, and environmental protection in Hong Kong stocks, have seen significant gains [7]

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected decline in U.S. employment data has increased market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, leading to a potential marginal easing of liquidity. Additionally, uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies and inflation may result in gold prices experiencing high-level fluctuations [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - U.S. non-farm payrolls unexpectedly fell to 22,000 in August (previously 73,000, forecasted 75,000), with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, indicating increased risks in the labor market [3]. - The manufacturing PMI in China rose by 0.1 percentage points to 49.4% in August, suggesting a slight improvement in manufacturing sentiment [4]. Group 2: Precious Metals - The uncertainty in U.S. tariff policies, including recent adjustments signed by Trump, and the marginal easing of liquidity are expected to support gold prices, which may experience fluctuations [3]. - Upcoming U.S. inflation data will be crucial in determining the interest rate path, influencing precious metal prices in the short term [3]. Group 3: Industrial Metals - Industrial metal prices are anticipated to gain upward momentum due to the gradual recovery of demand as the traditional peak season approaches, alongside macroeconomic policy support [2][4]. - The supply-demand dynamics are improving, with downstream processing rates increasing and supply disruptions due to maintenance and seasonal factors providing additional support for prices [4].

Group 1: Market Performance - A-shares' major indices collectively rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index increasing by 1.14%, 2.25%, and 3.82% respectively as of August 28 [2] - The technology sector continued to lead the market, with the STAR 50 Index surging by 7.23%, and significant gains in communication equipment, semiconductors, and electronic components [2][3] - The A-share market has shown strong performance this year, with the STAR 50 Index up 37.99%, the Shanghai Composite Index up 14.67%, and the Shenzhen Component Index up 20.71%, outperforming major developed market indices [3] Group 2: Emerging Markets Attraction - Emerging markets, particularly China, are becoming a focal point for global capital, with the iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (IEMG) seeing a net inflow of over $8.6 billion this year, significantly higher than developed market ETFs [3][4] - Institutional investors believe that the restructuring of the global monetary system is driving funds towards emerging markets, which are viewed as relative value opportunities [4] Group 3: Future Investment Opportunities - Investment managers are optimistic about two main areas in the Chinese market: consumption upgrades and technological innovation, particularly in artificial intelligence and electric vehicles [6] - The current environment of a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve is expected to benefit risk assets, including those in emerging markets [5]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown strong performance in 2023, with significant inflows into emerging markets, particularly China, as global investors seek higher returns amid a restructuring of the global monetary system [1][4]. Group 1: A-Share Market Performance - As of August 28, major A-share indices, including the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index, have risen by 14.67%, 20.71%, and 37.99% respectively this year, outperforming major developed market indices [2][3]. - The technology sector has led the gains, with the STAR 50 Index surging by 37.99% and individual stocks like Tianfu Communication and Changxin Bochuang seeing significant increases of 20% and 18.84% respectively [2][3]. Group 2: Emerging Market Attraction - The iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (IEMG) has seen net inflows exceeding $8.6 billion this year, with a notable acceleration of approximately $5.8 billion since April 2, indicating strong investor interest in emerging markets [3][4]. - Analysts predict that the MSCI Emerging Markets Index could rise by 15% over the next 12 months, outperforming developed markets by 10% [3]. Group 3: Global Monetary System and Investment Outlook - The restructuring of the global monetary system is driving funds towards emerging markets, as active fund managers bet on a weaker dollar [4][5]. - The current low-risk premium for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks suggests potential for revaluation, especially if U.S. Treasury bonds lose their status as a pricing anchor [5][6]. - Investment opportunities in China are expected to arise from consumption upgrades and technological innovations, particularly in artificial intelligence and electric vehicles [6].

Group 1: Market Performance - A-shares' major indices collectively rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index increasing by 1.14%, 2.25%, and 3.82% respectively as of August 28 [1] - The technology sector led the gains, with the STAR 50 Index surging by 7.23%, and sub-sectors like communication equipment, semiconductors, and electronic components also showing significant increases [1][2] - The iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (IEMG) saw a net inflow of over $8.6 billion this year, indicating strong interest in emerging markets compared to developed markets [2][3] Group 2: Investment Trends - Analysts noted that the AI computing sector has shown significant growth, becoming a prominent investment theme [2] - Emerging markets, particularly China, are attracting global investors, with expectations that the MSCI Emerging Markets Index could rise by 15% over the next 12 months, outperforming developed markets by 10% [2][4] - The shift in the global monetary system is prompting funds to seek higher-yielding assets, with a notable preference for emerging markets [3][4] Group 3: Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve's potential shift to a more accommodative policy could enhance the performance of related assets, benefiting emerging markets [4] - Analysts believe that the current low-risk premium for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks may lead to a revaluation of these assets, especially if U.S. Treasury bonds lose their status as a pricing anchor [4] - Investment opportunities in China are expected to focus on consumption upgrades and technological innovation, particularly in the electric vehicle and artificial intelligence sectors [5]