Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations yesterday, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges recording a trading volume of 1.67 trillion yuan, an increase of 76.5 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - By the end of the trading session, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.51%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.78%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.12% [1] Investment Insights Storage Demand and Battery Materials - CITIC Securities highlighted that the investment enthusiasm for energy storage is extremely high, with planned investment projects in Inner Mongolia doubling compared to this year [2] - The demand for energy storage is expected to continue growing due to high load growth and the ongoing development of renewable energy [2] - Battery materials, including positive and negative electrodes, electrolytes, and separators, are anticipated to see sustained price increases, with a positive outlook for the battery and integration sectors [2] Cement Industry Outlook - Tianfeng Securities noted that most provinces in northern China have begun staggered production during the heating season, with over 85% of clinker lines currently offline [3] - The short-term profitability support for the cement industry remains strong, with plans for production halts in December, particularly in the Yangtze River Delta region [3] - By 2025, leading companies are expected to address overproduction capacity, with a total of 52.5 million tons of new capacity planned and 83.59 million tons of capacity to be exited [3] Consumer Market Trends - Huatai Securities projected that consumer demand is likely to continue its steady recovery into 2026, driven by ongoing consumption policies [4] - The report emphasized the emergence of new consumption sectors, including trendy toys, beauty products, and ready-to-drink beverages, which are expected to produce leading companies [4] - Four key investment themes were identified: the rise of domestic brands, technology-driven consumption, emotional consumption, and undervalued high-dividend blue-chip stocks [4]

Core Insights - The market showed a positive trend with all three major indices rising, indicating a strong start for December, with over 3,300 stocks increasing in value [1] - The consumer electronics sector emerged as a standout performer, driven by the surge in AI hardware, with major companies like Google, Li Auto, and Alibaba launching AI glasses, signaling a shift towards AI technology as the next major terminal [3] - The rising prices of storage chips are expected to support the entire tech hardware sector, reflecting a broader trend of demand improvement and market recovery [3] Industry Trends - The price of silver reached a historical high, with a year-to-date increase of over 90%, influenced by expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and real industrial demand from sectors like photovoltaics and electric vehicles [3] - The current market dynamics suggest a focus on "cross-year market" and "spring rally," with institutions indicating that the current market adjustment presents a good value opportunity [3][4] - The market is likely to evolve in a manner where "value plays the stage, and growth takes the lead," with the recent surge in consumer electronics serving as a preview of this growth narrative [3][4] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to monitor the sustainability of the leading sectors, particularly consumer electronics and AI hardware, to determine if the market will experience broad rotation or deepen around core tech growth themes [4] - There is potential for capital to flow along the supply chain if tech growth is confirmed, with attention on semiconductor equipment, new materials, and sectors benefiting from rising silver prices, such as photovoltaics [4]

细水长流行更远 ◎农银汇理投资部副总经理、基金经理 谷超 近半年来，资本市场迎来了稳步上行的结构性行情，外需贡献占比较高的相关企业股价表现突出。 从短期视角看，4月以来制造业景气度有所回落，主要是受外部环境波动与国内房地产市场调整的阶段 性影响。但从中长期维度审视，经济长期向好的核心趋势未发生改变。当前我国经济已具备庞大体量与 深厚韧性，内需正逐步成为拉动经济增长的主动力与稳定锚，在经济基本面稳步向好的支撑下，内需复 苏的长期逻辑清晰。坚定看好资本市场的长期发展潜力，尽管前期外需导向的结构性市场风格难以持 续，但"细水长流"的稳健型市场格局，更有利于投资者分享长期价值增长红利。 "十五五"规划建议提出，"高质量发展取得显著成效。经济增长保持在合理区间，全要素生产率稳步提 升，居民消费率明显提高，内需拉动经济增长主动力作用持续增强，经济增长潜力得到充分释放，全国 统一大市场建设纵深推进，超大规模市场优势持续显现，新型工业化、信息化、城镇化、农业现代化取 得重大进展，发展新质生产力、构建新发展格局、建设现代化经济体系取得重大突破"。 这一部署充分凸显我国超大规模市场的独特优势与内需驱动的战略重要性，我们长期看好内 ...

韩联社11月11日报道，韩国金融研究院预测2026年韩国经济将增长2.1%，主要依托内需复苏。民 间消费增速升至1.6%，建设投资从-8.9%反弹至2.6%。但出口受全球贸易放缓拖累，增速将降至0.8%， 经常账户顺差收窄。物价方面，消费者物价上涨率预计降至1.8%，但美国政策走向与地缘风险仍存不 确定性。金融领域面临多重挑战，股市需警惕信用融资带来的波动，银行业因净息差承压与风险加权资 产调整可能导致健全性指标恶化，保险业受老龄化冲击增长放缓。 （原标题：韩国金融研究院预测2026年经济增长2.1%） ...

Market Performance Review - The A-share market experienced significant differentiation this week, with major indices showing mixed results. The CSI A50 index rose by 0.26%, while the Shanghai Composite Index slightly declined by 0.18%. In contrast, the ChiNext and STAR Market indices fell by 3.01% and 3.85%, respectively [3][11] - The consumer sector led the market, with significant gains in the comprehensive sector (6.99%), textiles and apparel (4.41%), retail (4.06%), beauty and personal care (3.75%), and pharmaceuticals (3.29%). Conversely, the communication and electronics sectors both dropped by 4.77% [12][30] A-share High-Frequency Data Tracking - The dynamic HMM timing model suggests a current market position leaning towards volatility, recommending a 10.4% allocation [15] - Personal investor sentiment has shown a slight recovery, with the sentiment index moving to 3.34% as of November 15, up from -1.9% on November 8 [20][22] - Financing sentiment fluctuated throughout the week, with financing transactions remaining stable and below 20% for four consecutive trading days [24] Future Market Outlook and Investment Views - The market is expected to continue its volatile pattern, with limited upward potential due to a lack of significant capital inflow and an increase in planned share reductions by listed companies [4][30] - The report suggests maintaining a growth style in investment strategy, focusing on sectors that meet the "turnaround + high growth" criteria, particularly in photovoltaic equipment and commercial industries positioned for growth [30]

Core Viewpoint - The service industry is showing signs of stabilization and bottoming out after experiencing price pressure and same-store sales decline in 2024, with expectations for a recovery in demand and pricing turning points in 2026 [1][2] Group 1: Industry Outlook - The service consumption sector is expected to see an increase in quality brands emerging and growing, supported by improved infrastructure for chain operations [1] - External factors such as competition from delivery platforms, new social security regulations, and the rise of pre-prepared meals are likely to optimize the competitive landscape in the long term, benefiting leading companies [1] - The restaurant and hotel sectors are identified as the most conducive for nurturing large companies [1] Group 2: Company Focus - Companies that can successfully navigate brand differentiation and lifecycle challenges are likely to emerge as winners, characterized by their ability to meet consumer value demands, possess comprehensive operational capabilities, and capture ongoing growth drivers [1] - In the restaurant sector, beverage brands in 2026 will need to be cautious of high baselines and competitive disruptions, but leading brands are expected to achieve stable performance and gradually replace smaller chains [2] - The hotel sector is anticipated to see a rebalancing of supply and demand, with a forecasted slowdown in supply growth, while high-quality leaders are expected to expand market share even during industry downturns [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The service industry is characterized by strong cyclical attributes, with a long-term trend towards increased flexible employment penetration [2] - The duty-free sales sector is at a low point, with attention on the potential impact of Hainan's reopening and the expansion of local channels [2] - Tourism pricing pressures and expenditure may lead to weaker stability in performance growth, with a focus on the development of scenic projects and improvements in transportation as potential catalysts [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from China International Capital Corporation (CICC) indicates that the social services industry is expected to stabilize and bottom out in 2025 after experiencing price pressures and same-store sales declines in 2024, with a gradual easing of price wars and a potential recovery in same-store sales [1] Industry Summary - The social services industry is projected to see a recovery in 2026, driven by domestic demand recovery and policy expansion, with a focus on companies with strong internal growth capabilities and high-growth segment leaders [1] - The restaurant sector, particularly beverages, will face challenges in 2026 due to high base effects and competitive landscape disruptions, but leading brands are expected to achieve stable performance and gradually replace smaller chains [1] - The fast food segment shows resilience, while the full-service restaurant brands will experience ongoing differentiation in same-store sales [1] - The hotel industry is anticipated to rebalance supply and demand, with a slowdown in supply growth expected despite positive growth, as RevPAR (Revenue Per Available Room) continues to decline for two years [1] - The recovery of business demand is crucial for RevPAR to turn positive, with high-quality leading brands likely to expand market share even during industry downturns [1] - The labor service sector exhibits strong cyclical attributes, with a long-term trend of increasing flexible employment penetration [1] - Duty-free sales are at a low point, with attention on the marginal changes brought by the Hainan closure and the expansion of local channels [1] - The tourism sector faces price pressures and cost inputs that may weaken performance stability, with a focus on the development of scenic projects and improvements in transportation as potential catalysts [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Precious Metals**: The international spot gold price has reached a record high of over $4380 per ounce, driven by increased trade tensions, the US government shutdown, and dovish statements from Fed officials. The value of gold as a hedge has been further enhanced by geopolitical risks and the trend of central bank gold purchases and de - dollarization. The large capital inflow into the Shanghai gold futures contract indicates strong market sentiment [3]. - **Copper**: Demand is suppressing copper price increases, but rising expectations of interest rate cuts may lead to a rebound. The 86,000 yuan per ton level is a key resistance point [15]. - **Aluminum**: In the short - term, macro factors are the core drivers of aluminum prices. With the expansion of China's core CPI in September and expectations of Fed rate cuts, and the reduction of inventory, the Shanghai aluminum futures may show a slightly upward trend. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and its price is declining. Cast aluminum alloy has strong support due to raw material shortages and policy factors [37][38]. - **Zinc**: The fundamentals of domestic and overseas zinc markets are different, with the domestic market showing a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Low inventory provides short - term price support, and attention should be paid to the opening of export windows and potential macro - driven factors [63]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: In the nickel industry chain, the quota for nickel ore in 2026 is expected to decrease. The new energy sector is in a peak season, while nickel iron prices are weakening. Stainless steel sales are sluggish after the holiday, but export prospects are positive. Macro factors such as Sino - US tariffs and interest rate cut expectations should be monitored [77]. - **Tin**: The tin market has a pattern of tight supply and differentiated demand. Supply is constrained by the delayed resumption of Burmese mines and Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mining, while demand is divided between weak traditional electronics and strong high - end solder demand from AI servers and new energy vehicles. Low inventory supports prices, but high prices are suppressing trading [91]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Market demand is good, and warehouse receipts are decreasing. The demand from downstream lithium - battery material enterprises is expected to increase, which may support the futures price [106]. - **Silicon Industry Chain**: For industrial silicon, as the dry season approaches, production cuts may increase, and prices may rise slightly, but inventory pressure limits the upside. The polysilicon market is affected by news and has weak fundamentals [117]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Movement**: The international spot gold price has broken through $4380 per ounce, and the Shanghai gold futures contract has the largest capital inflow in the domestic commodity futures market [3]. - **Influencing Factors**: Trade tensions, the US government shutdown, Fed officials' dovish statements, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases are the main factors driving the rise in gold prices [3]. Copper - **Price Data**: The latest price of Shanghai copper futures main contract is 84,390 yuan per ton, with a daily decline of 0.78%. London copper has a daily increase of 0.45% [16]. - **Market Outlook**: Demand restricts price increases, but interest rate cut expectations may lead to a rebound. The 86,000 yuan per ton level is a key resistance point [15]. Aluminum - **Price Data**: The latest price of Shanghai aluminum futures main contract is 20,910 yuan per ton, with a daily decline of 0.31%. Alumina futures main contract price is 2,800 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 0.36% [39]. - **Market Outlook**: Macro factors drive short - term price trends. Aluminum inventory is decreasing, while alumina is in an oversupply situation [37]. Zinc - **Price Data**: The latest price of Shanghai zinc futures main contract is 21,815 yuan per ton, with a daily decline of 0.57%. London zinc has a daily increase of 0.85% [64]. - **Market Outlook**: The domestic and overseas zinc markets have different fundamentals, and low inventory provides short - term price support [63]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Data**: The latest price of Shanghai nickel futures main contract is 121,160 yuan per ton, with a daily decline of 0%. The stainless steel futures main contract price is 12,630 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 0% [78]. - **Market Outlook**: The nickel ore quota in 2026 is expected to decrease. The new energy sector is booming, while nickel iron prices are weakening. Stainless steel sales are slow, but export prospects are positive [77]. Tin - **Price Data**: The latest price of Shanghai tin futures main contract is 280,750 yuan per ton, with a daily decline of 0.21%. London tin has a daily increase of 1.01% [92]. - **Market Outlook**: The tin market has a pattern of tight supply and differentiated demand, and low inventory supports prices [91]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Data**: The latest price of lithium carbonate futures main contract is 75,700 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 760 yuan [107]. - **Market Outlook**: Market demand is good, and warehouse receipts are decreasing, which may support the futures price [106]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Price Data**: The latest price of industrial silicon futures main contract is 8,430 yuan per ton, with a daily decline of 2.03%. Polysilicon and other product prices are also provided in the report [117]. - **Market Outlook**: As the dry season approaches, industrial silicon production cuts may increase, and prices may rise slightly. The polysilicon market is affected by news and has weak fundamentals [117].

Group 1 - The significant increase in M1 growth to 7.2% at the end of September reflects a trend towards the liquidity of deposits, marking a 7.1 percentage point rise from the low point earlier in the year [1][2] - The narrowing "scissors difference" between M1 and M2 indicates increased social investment and consumption activity, suggesting improved economic vitality [1][2] - Despite the rise in M1, the current weak domestic demand has not been reversed, and sustained high M1 growth will require enhanced policy support to stabilize and boost domestic demand [1][3] Group 2 - The increase in M1 growth is attributed to both a low base effect from last year and short-term funding factors, including the return of deposits from wealth management products and the impact of recent financial policies [2] - The transition of fixed-term deposits to demand deposits due to lower opportunity costs has contributed to the ongoing rise in M1, although this does not necessarily indicate increased stock market activity [2] - To shift funds from "idle accounts" to "market investment," improvements in market expectations and a substantial recovery in domestic demand are essential, supported by continuous policy efforts [3]

Group 1 - The significant increase in M1 growth to 7.2% at the end of September indicates a rise in social investment and consumption activity, reflecting improved economic vitality [1][2] - The M1 growth is influenced by a low base effect from the previous year and short-term funding factors, including the return of deposits from wealth management products and the impact of recent financial policies [2] - The ongoing rise in M1 growth reflects a trend towards the liquidity of deposits, but transitioning funds from accounts to market investments requires improved market expectations and substantial recovery in domestic demand [3] Group 2 - The narrowing "scissors gap" between M1 and M2 suggests a more active financial environment, although the current weak domestic demand has not yet been reversed [1][3] - The increase in M1 is partly due to the maturation of high-interest fixed deposits, which have shifted to demand deposits, contributing to the rise in M1 [2] - The correlation between M1 growth and stock market activity may weaken as asset allocation channels diversify, indicating that increases in M1 do not necessarily translate to stock market inflows [2]