花旗集团利率交易部门表示，市场对美国通胀前景过于自满，因此押注价格压力上升的交易具有吸引力。花旗利率交易台策略师本杰明.威尔特希尔表 示，投资者可能低估了美国消费者的韧性，市场对通胀的预期很可能会被小幅上调。他表示："市场似乎坚信通胀会回落，但我们仍处于一个结构性更高 的通胀环境。"他建议投资者买入"五年期远期通胀掉期"。当前，美联储偏好的核心通胀指标依然顽固地维持在略低于3%的水平。 越来越多迹象显示，他们的担忧并非空穴来风。1月份，美国国债与通胀保值债券之间的收益率差大幅上升，升至数月高位。作为另一项市场预期指标的 通胀掉期也同步走高。 对通胀将卷土重来的观点基于对美国经济强劲将重新推高物价的预期，尤其是如果美国总统提名的下一任美联储主席凯文.沃什推动更快或更大幅度的降 息。更广泛地看，商品价格上涨、政府大规模举债以及人工智能支出激增，也加剧了通胀压力。 瑞银集团高级交易员本.皮尔逊表示，由美国主导的"通胀性繁荣"是今年投资者低估的最大风险。皮尔逊称，如果这种情况成为现实，将使美联储在上半 年"完全按兵不动"，并迫使市场在下半年重新计入加息预期。渣打银行G-10策略主管史蒂文.巴罗预测，如果白宫对降息的渴 ...

Core Viewpoint - The CBO forecasts a slight increase in the U.S. budget deficit to $1.853 trillion for FY 2026, indicating a deterioration in fiscal conditions under President Trump's economic policies [1] Group 1: Budget Deficit Projections - The budget deficit for FY 2026 is projected to be approximately 5.8% of GDP, consistent with the 2025 fiscal year deficit of $1.775 trillion [1] - Over the next decade, the average deficit rate is expected to reach 6.1%, rising to 6.7% by FY 2036, significantly above the Treasury Secretary's target of around 3% [1] - The CBO's current deficit forecast for FY 2026 is $100 billion (8%) higher than its January 2025 estimate, with cumulative deficits from 2026 to 2035 increasing by $1.4 trillion (6%) [3] Group 2: Economic Growth and Tax Policies - The CBO's economic growth forecast is notably lower than the Trump administration's, predicting a 2.2% year-over-year GDP growth in Q4 2026, with an average of about 1.8% over the next decade [1] - The anticipated investment tax credits and larger personal tax refunds in 2026 will be offset by larger fiscal deficits and a slowdown in labor force growth due to reduced immigration [2] Group 3: Interest Costs and Debt Levels - Net interest expenditures are projected to more than double from $970 billion in FY 2025 to $2 trillion by FY 2035, driven by rising federal debt [4] - The total public debt is expected to reach $56.152 trillion, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 120% by 2036, up from 99% in FY 2025 [5] - The aging baby boomer generation is contributing significantly to rising Medicare and Social Security costs, further exacerbating the deficit [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Canada management committee indicates that recent actions by the United States regarding trade, foreign policy, and central bank independence are contributing to a more "volatile" world and increasing uncertainty [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - In January, the Bank of Canada maintained its interest rate at 2.25% for the second consecutive time, citing rising uncertainty as the main reason for indecision on whether to raise or lower rates [1] - The minutes from the February 11 meeting highlight the challenges of effectively weighing and assigning probabilities to various risks in an unpredictable environment with little historical precedent [1] Group 2: Future Policy Direction - The Bank of Canada reiterated the difficulty in predicting the timing and direction of the next policy interest rate adjustment [1]

Core Insights - The annual electronic trading survey by JPMorgan reveals that 41% of respondents believe geopolitical tensions will have the greatest impact on financial markets this year, more than doubling from 2025 [1] - Technological innovations, such as AI, rank second at 19%, while interest rate policies come in third at 13% [1] - Chi Nzelu, head of the newly established quantitative trading and research team at JPMorgan, indicates that the market is highly focused on ongoing geopolitical tensions, suggesting that a quick resolution is not anticipated [1] Market Opportunities - Tokenized assets are viewed as the largest opportunity in the digital market, with 48% of sell-side respondents and 33% of buy-side respondents selecting this option, surpassing cryptocurrencies, stablecoins, and deposit tokens [1] - The survey, conducted in January, included responses from 955 institutional and professional traders globally, reflecting their sentiment heading into early 2026 [1]

Metal Market - Domestic base metals collectively rose, with nickel leading at a 4.02% increase and tin at 3.27% [1] - Lithium carbonate surged by 9.18% to 150,260 yuan/ton, while aluminum oxide fell by 0.28% [1][4] - In the black metal sector, stainless steel rose by 2.22%, while iron ore and rebar saw slight declines [1] - Internationally, base metals also experienced gains, with tin up by 2.17% and nickel by 1.6% [1][2] Precious Metals - COMEX gold increased by 1.09% and silver by 2.51%, while domestic gold and silver rose by 0.56% and 1.88% respectively [1][2] Macro Economic Indicators - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 0.2% year-on-year increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) showing a 1.4% year-on-year decline [5] - The People's Bank of China conducted a net injection of 4.035 billion yuan through reverse repos [5] Currency and Oil Market - The US dollar index fell by 0.28% to 95.59, with expectations of lower non-farm payroll data putting pressure on the dollar [7] - Oil prices rose, with WTI up by 0.73% and Brent by 0.65%, supported by geopolitical uncertainties in the US and Iran [9]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） | 1130.400 | 9.2↑ 沪银主力合约收盘价（日，元/千克） | 20944 | +660.00↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 160,510.00 | +3600.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 9,050.00 | +74.00↑ | | | 主力合约成交量:沪金 | 217,933.00 | -164.00↓ 主力合约成交量:沪银 | 504,079.00 | -107478.00↓ | | | 仓单数量:沪金(日,千克) | 105072 | 0↑ 仓单数量:沪银(日,千克) | 342,102 | 18734↑ | | 现货市场 | 上金所黄金现货价 | 1123.02 | 6.33↑ 华通一号白银现货价 | 19,556.00 | 266.00↑ | | | 沪金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | -7.38 | -2.85↓ 沪银主力合约基差(日,元/ ...

短期来看，美元兑瑞郎大概率维持震荡下行的弱势格局。虽然技术指标显示汇价处于超卖区域，存在技 术性反弹的需求，但大趋势的逆转尚需时日。投资者需密切关注瑞士央行的干预动态以及美国关键数据 的指引。在历史性的低点面前，市场情绪极度敏感，任何风吹草动都可能引发剧烈波动。对于交易者而 言，当前局势下，"顺势而为"或许是最为明智的选择，切勿盲目抄底，以免陷入"接飞刀"的困境。 2026年2月11日，外汇市场风云突变，美元兑瑞士法郎(USD/CHF)延续断崖式下跌，盘中一度重挫近 1%，最低触及0.7660水平，创下2011年以来的15年历史新低。截至发稿，汇价徘徊在0.7665附近，市场 情绪被避险资金的单向涌入与美瑞货币政策的巨大背离彻底点燃。这一历史性低点不仅标志着瑞郎的极 度强势，更折射出全球资本在不确定性加剧背景下，对传统避险资产的疯狂追逐。 反观美元，可谓内忧外患。美联储内部关于降息节奏的分歧日益加剧，部分官员甚至面临法律诉讼威 胁，央行独立性遭受质疑，严重打击了市场信心。美元指数整体呈现疲软态势，兑一篮子货币持续走 低。对于美元多头而言，唯一的救命稻草便是即将公布的美国经济数据。若非农就业数据能超预期强 劲， ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Platinum is in continuous shock consolidation, and palladium is in narrow - range shock [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: Platinum futures 2606 closed at 537.50 with a - 1.39% change, gold - exchange platinum at 549.47 with a 1.01% change. Palladium futures 2606 closed at 429.05 with a - 2.08% change, RMB spot palladium at 419.00 with a - 2.56% change [2] - **Trading Volume and Position Data**: Guangdong platinum trading volume was 6,135 kg (down 7,342 kg), NYMEX platinum was 18,004 kg (down 12,597 kg). Guangdong palladium trading volume was 3,099 kg (down 3,052 kg), NYMEX palladium was 10,569 kg (down 3,611 kg) [2] - **ETF and Inventory Data**: Platinum ETF holdings were 3,279,592 ounces (unchanged), palladium ETF holdings were 1,200,822 ounces (unchanged). NYMEX platinum inventory was 583,369 ounces (down 63,072 ounces) [2] - **Spread Data**: PT9995 to PT2606 spread was 11.97 (down 10.02), Guangdong platinum 2606 to 2610 spread was 11.50 (down 2.90). RMB spot palladium to PD2606 spread was - 10.05 (up 14.45), Guangdong palladium 2606 to 2610 spread was 4.90 (down 0.05) [2] - **Exchange - Rate Data**: The US dollar index was 96.86 with a - 0.78% change, USD/CNY (spot) was 6.92 with a - 0.24% change, USD/CNH (spot) was 6.92 with a - 0.20% change, USD/CNY (6M forward) was 6.83 with a - 0.45% change [2] Macro and Industry News - **Policy Statements**: Trump believes the interest rate should be 2 percentage points lower. Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts and inflation [5] - **Economic Data**: US December retail sales month - on - month rate was 0%, lower than the forecast of 0.4%. ADP report shows US private - sector employment increased by 6,500 per week in the four weeks to January 24 [5] - **Geopolitical News**: Negotiations on Greenland are in the early stage, and talks will be held in the coming months. There are developments in the US - Iran nuclear - issue negotiation [5] - **Corporate News**: Alphabet plans to issue bonds to raise about £4.5 billion and over 3 billion Swiss francs [5] - **Domestic Policy**: Li Qiang emphasizes the rational development of rare - earth resources and key - core technology research [5] Trend Strength - Platinum trend strength is 0, palladium trend strength is 0. The range of trend strength is [- 2,2], with - 2 being most bearish and 2 being most bullish [4]

新西兰西 太平洋首席经济学家Kelly Eckhold表示，新西兰联储在下周的政策会议上可能会维持利率不 变，但会承认经济前景正在改善。官方现金利率预计将维持在2.25%，新西兰联储可能会将预期的首次 加息时间提前至12月。Eckhold补充称，至关重要的是，由于持续的产能过剩、金融环境收紧以及食品 和燃料价格通胀下降，新西兰联储的通胀预期将趋向2%，从而削弱了央行迅速恢复加息的必要性。 ...

Market - The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a new high, while the S&P 500 index declined due to weak holiday sales and concerns about AI's impact on finance [4][5] - Retail sales in December stagnated, indicating a slowdown in consumer spending, with investors awaiting employment and CPI reports [4] - Major retail stocks like Costco and Walmart saw declines, while Spotify's stock surged by 14.75% due to strong user growth despite slowing profits [2][3] Macro - The New York Federal Reserve reported that the U.S. loan default rate rose to 4.8%, the highest in nearly a decade, driven by increased defaults among low-income and young borrowers [10] - U.S. national debt surged by $696 billion in four months, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability as interest costs exceed $1 trillion [11] - The European Parliament is closer to approving a U.S.-EU trade agreement, with a vote scheduled for February 24 [12] Company - Ford's quarterly core profit fell by about 50% to $1 billion, with a net loss of $11.1 billion in Q4, but the CEO expects stronger performance by 2026 [14] - Alphabet raised nearly $32 billion in a bond issuance, highlighting the tech giant's significant financing needs for AI development [15] - U.S. brokerage stocks fell due to concerns over AI disrupting traditional financial services, with Altruist launching an AI tax planning tool [16][20] - Blackstone is increasing its investment in AI company Anthropic, raising its stake to approximately $1 billion [18] - Tesla appointed its European business head to oversee global electric vehicle sales amid declining demand in the U.S. and Europe [21]