Core Viewpoint - President Trump's uncertainty regarding whether his economic policies will help the Republican Party win the upcoming midterm elections reflects a disconnect between economic data and voter sentiment [1][2]. Economic Performance - Despite boasting about creating a strong economy, Trump acknowledges that the full effects of recent economic activities may not be felt until the second quarter of next year [1]. - Employment growth has been slow, and the unemployment rate has risen, leading many Americans to not feel the benefits of macroeconomic growth [2]. Federal Reserve Criticism - Trump expresses frustration with the Federal Reserve, suggesting that the market's negative reaction to positive economic news is due to fears of a hawkish stance from the Fed [3][4]. - He challenges the traditional data-driven decision-making of the Fed, arguing that good news should not automatically lead to higher interest rates [4][5]. Tariff Policy - Trump reiterates his reliance on tariffs, claiming they have brought wealth to the U.S. and provided leverage in international negotiations [6]. - His tariff policies are facing scrutiny from the Supreme Court, and he warns that a ruling against them would be detrimental to the U.S. [7]. Government Intervention - Trump defends direct government intervention in the economy, indicating that the government is considering investing in defense and semiconductor companies [7]. - This industrial policy approach could have significant implications for investors and market structures in related sectors [7]. Inflation Challenges - Inflation remains a core challenge for Trump, who blames it on the previous administration while claiming to have reduced prices [9]. - Rising prices for essential goods like coffee and beef have become a point of attack for Democrats, highlighting the impact of Trump's economic policies on household costs [9].

作为美联储下任主席的热门人选，白宫国家经济委员会主席哈西特明确表示，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普 对政策利率的制定没有任何决策权。他可能意识到了市场 ...

淡水泉（香港）总裁兼首席经济学家陶冬撰文指出，无论鲍威尔在记者会上讲了什么，点阵图如何形容 未来利率走势，其实都不重要了。FOMC成员明年2月换人，美联储主席明年5月换人，接任主席及新班 子的立场才更重要。笔者认为，美国进入了"美联储双主席"的模式。这意味着鲍威尔未来工作会受到更 大掣肘，也因此带来利率政策的更大不确定性，这对债市稳定不利。 但是从另一角度看，若如笔者所 料哈塞特明年5月起担任美联储掌舵人，美国明年下半年利率可能迅速下降。当前白宫的不支持率创下 历史新高，共和党在刚结束的州市选举中全军覆没，令美国总统特朗普对明年中期选举深感忧虑，他和 哈塞特会迅速将政策利率推向中性水平（市场估计2.5%），如若经济或市场有风吹草动，不排除利率 进一步下调。美联储正在变天。 （第一财经） 来源：滚动播报 ...

市场普遍预期12月议息会议将维持利率不变。近期发布的多项数据显示，欧元区经济虽仍面临外需疲弱 与企业投资谨慎等压力，但通胀已从年初高位明显回落至11月的2.2%，核心物价继续降温，经济景气 指标也出现阶段性改善。 欧元兑美元的汇率近期整体于1.15-1.17范围波动。巴克莱银行全球外汇策略主管西莫斯·菲奥塔基斯表 示，实际上，欧元的实际价值远比表面看起来要高得多，贸易加权与关税调整后衡量，实际欧元强度远 高于名义水平。他认为从贸易加权的角度来看，欧元正处于历史高位，如果考虑到美国关税，欧元汇率 甚至更接近1.28美元。 从贸易角度看，分析人士指出，强势欧元意味着进口商品和服务变得更便宜，这直接降低了欧元区内部 的物价水平，有助于将整体通胀率拉回到欧洲央行2%的目标之下。同时，进口成本下降有利于消费， 缓解家庭与企业成本压力，这在当前通胀温和、经济复苏基础尚存的背景下，对内需构成支持。 最新数据显示，欧元区9月份对华贸易逆差为330亿欧元，这一数据引起欧洲市场的普遍担忧。市场认 为，对华市场出口逆差与强势欧元结合，会给欧元区带来显著的通缩压力，并可能对欧元区的出口竞争 力造成负面影响，从而迫使欧洲央行考虑降息。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Kevin Warsh has emerged as the leading candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, with support from Trump and Jamie Dimon, increasing his nomination probability to 41% [1][5]. Group 1: Candidate Support and Probabilities - Trump stated that Warsh aligns with his views on monetary policy, particularly regarding interest rate cuts [3]. - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, expressed strong support for Warsh, calling him a "great Federal Reserve Chair" [7]. - The probability of Kevin Hassett's nomination has decreased from approximately 71% to 52%, while Warsh's has risen to 41% [5]. Group 2: Background of Kevin Warsh - Warsh, 55, is currently a visiting scholar at Stanford University and has a background in investment banking at Morgan Stanley [9]. - He served as the Executive Secretary of the White House National Economic Council from 2002 to 2006 and was a Federal Reserve Governor from 2006 to 2011 [9]. - Warsh previously interviewed for the Federal Reserve Chair position during Trump's first term but was ultimately not selected [9].

美联储主席热门人选再添一位。 在美国总统特朗普透露凯文・沃什是美联储主席头号人选后，目前，在预测平台上，沃什的当选概率从 约15%飙升至最高40%。与此同时，白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文・哈塞特出任下届美联储主席的概 率，也从不久前的80%一度跌破60%。 当地时间12月12日，据《华尔街日报》报道，特朗普在采访中被直接问及沃什是否已是其目前的首选人 选时，特朗普回应道："没错，我认为他就是。" 此外，特朗普于当天还重申了其长期持有的立场，即美联储主席应就利率政策向总统征询意见。当地时 间12月10日，美联储宣布下调基准利率25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至3.5%—3.75%。彼 时，特朗普曾评论称，降息幅度太小，本可以更大。 沃什支持率飙升 据《华尔街日报》报道，特朗普于12月12日表示，凯文・沃什已跻身其心目中美联储下一任主席候选名 单的榜首，不过其他候选人仍在竞争之列。 据悉，当被问及沃什是否已是其头号人选时，特朗普回应称："没错，我认为他就是。" 沃什本人曾担任美联储理事，此前虽入选特朗普的候选人名单，但并非热门人选。不过，在上周三（12 月10日）与特朗普会面后，他进一步赢得了特朗普的青睐。据 ...

美联储主席热门人选再添一位。 在美国总统特朗普透露 凯文・沃什是美联储主席 头号人选后，目前，在预测平台上， 沃什的当选概率从约 15%飙升至最高40%。与此同时，白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文・哈塞特出任下届美联储主席的概率，也从 不久前的80%一度跌破60%。 当地时间12月12日，据《华尔街日报》报道，特朗普在采访中被直接问及沃什是否已是其目前的首选人选时， 特朗普回应道："没错，我认为他就是。" 此外，特朗普于当天还重申了其长期持有的立场，即美联储主席应就利率政策向总统征询意见。当地时间12月 10日，美联储宣布下调基准利率25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至3.5%—3.75%。彼时，特朗普曾评 论称，降息幅度太小，本可以更大。 沃什支持率飙升 据《华尔街日报》报道，特朗普于12月12日表示，凯文・沃什已跻身其心目中美联储下一任主席候选名单的榜 首，不过其他候选人仍在竞争之列。 据悉，当被问及沃什是否已是其头号人选时，特朗普回应称："没错，我认为他就是。" 沃什本人曾担任美联储理事，此前虽入选特朗普的候选人名单，但并非热门人选。不过，在上周三（12月10 日）与特朗普会面后，他进一步赢得了特朗普的青 ...

智通财经APP获悉，美联储官员周五就利率政策提出了强烈对立的观点，包括两名将在2026年获得投票 权的官员，这场争论将持续主导这家美国央行进入新的一年。 三位政策制定者在发言中聚焦通胀风险，不过其中一位暗示，他只是主张暂时暂停降息以确认通胀正在 缓解。另有两位官员则更强调劳动力市场面临的风险。 这些言论是自周三以来的首次表态。当时美联储为应对不断上升的失业率，连续第三次会议将基准利率 下调0.25个百分点。针对该决定的反对票表明，在通胀持续存在的情况下，这一连串降息行动已变得越 来越具争议性;而预测显示，官员们的中值预期仅认为2026年会进行一次降息。 "委员会中的一部分人倾向于更加谨慎。他们希望看到更多关于通胀的数据，更多关于劳动力市场的数 据，" Evercore ISI 的高级经济学家马尔科·卡西拉吉表示。随着新一任美联储主席即将上任并预计将推 动降低利率，"关于2026年进行多少次降息才算合理，这将是一个有点讨价还价的过程。" 两位官员——芝加哥联储主席奥斯坦·古尔斯比和堪萨斯城联储主席杰夫·施密德——周五发表了声明， 阐述了他们在周三反对降息的理由。这是古尔斯比自2023年加入美联储以来首次投下反对 ...

随着该报道出炉，预测市场迅速作出反应。根据Kalshi的数据，哈塞特获得提名的概率从此前的约71% 下滑至62%，而沃什的概率则升至36%。 哈塞特此前被视为领跑者，但其本人在公开场合一直态度谨慎，仅表示若被邀请将愿意服务。对此，民 主党参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦周四警告称，她担忧特朗普可能会任命一位"听命行事的傀儡"出任美联储主 席。 在强调沃什胜出概率上升的同时，特朗普再次重申其一贯立场，即美联储主席在制定利率政策时应当与 总统进行磋商。"现在通常已经不这么做了，但过去这是惯例，我认为应该这样做，"特朗普表示，"我 是一个聪明的声音，理应被倾听。" 自2017年提名鲍威尔出任美联储主席以来，特朗普便与其关系紧张。他多次公开施压美联储要求更快、 更大幅度降息，甚至使用人身攻击言辞。尽管自今年9月以来，美联储已累计降息75个基点，特朗普仍 对当前降息节奏表示不满。 美联储在本周三再次降息，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至3.5%-3.75%。特朗普认为这一水平仍然偏 高，并指出沃什在货币政策立场上与自己较为一致。"他认为必须降低利率，"特朗普说，"我接触过的 其他人也都是这么认为的。" 智通财经APP获悉，美国总统特朗 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - No clear core view presented in the provided content. 3. Summary by Related Categories Platinum and Lithium Fundamental Data - Platinum futures 2606 closed at 442.40 with a -0.46% change; the gold exchange platinum closed at 436.11 with a -0.49% change; the New York platinum main - continuous contract closed at 1713.90 with a 2.45% change; and the London spot platinum closed at 1696.00 with a 2.46% change [2] - Lithium futures 2606 closed at 385.25 with a -0.62% change; the RMB spot lithium closed at 356.00 with a -3.26% change; the New York lithium main - continuous contract closed at 1540.00 with a 2.19% change; and the London spot lithium closed at 1492.00 with a 1.05% change [2] - Trading volume and open interest data for Guangdong platinum, NYMEX platinum, Guangdong lithium, and NYMEX lithium are presented, showing changes compared to the previous day [2] - ETF holdings of platinum and lithium (in ounces from the previous day) and their changes compared to the previous day are given [2] - Inventory data for Guangdong platinum, NYMEX platinum, Guangdong lithium, and NYMEX lithium (in ounces from the previous day) and their changes are provided [2] - Various price spreads, such as PT9995 to PT2606, Guangdong platinum 2606 to 2610, and others, along with their changes compared to the previous day, are shown [2] - Exchange - rate data including the US dollar index, US dollar to RMB (CNY spot), US dollar to offshore RMB (CNH spot), and US dollar to RMB (6M forward) and their changes are presented [2] Macro and Industry News - The Swiss central bank maintained the interest rate at zero [4] - Modi and Trump had a phone call regarding trade and energy issues [4] - The US House of Representatives shelved the motion to impeach Trump after a vote [4] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week had the largest single - week increase since the pandemic [5] - The Federal Reserve reappointed 11 regional Fed presidents to ease concerns about personnel uncertainty [5] - The US, Ukraine, and the EU will hold a meeting on the Russia - Ukraine conflict in Paris on Saturday [5] - Vietnam's National Assembly amended the law to ban the export of rare - earth ore, effective next January [5] - Zelensky responded to the issue of territorial compromise, stating that the stance of the Ukrainian people must be shown through elections or referendums [5] - The Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 10th to 11th, and Xi Jinping attended and delivered an important speech [5] Trend Strength - The trend strength of platinum is 1, and that of lithium is 1, with the range of trend strength being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [4]