Core Viewpoint - The return of U.S. traders after Memorial Day weekend has led to a decline in crude oil futures prices, influenced by the upcoming OPEC+ meeting and market caution regarding production levels [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - U.S. traders have returned to the market, contributing to a decrease in crude oil prices [1] - President Trump's one-month delay on imposing a 50% tariff on EU imports has provided some relief to the market [1] - The upcoming OPEC+ meeting is causing market caution regarding production decisions for July [1] Group 2: Production Expectations - Market expectations indicate a potential increase in production by 411,000 barrels per day in July [1] - The formal confirmation from major oil-producing countries, including Russia, may exert pressure on the market [1]

Group 1: Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed up 0.37% at 3,012 yuan/ton, while the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 1.03% at 3,563 yuan/ton [1] - After the first round of Sino-US trade negotiations and the warming of macro sentiment, crude oil prices have shown a volatile and upward trend recently, boosting the overall energy sector. However, the medium-term expectation of oversupply in the crude oil market has not reversed, and resistance may start to appear after continuous rebounds [1] Group 2: Fundamental Analysis of Fuel Oil - The reduction of tariffs is beneficial to trade and shipping demand, and there is additional inventory replenishment demand during the 90-day suspension period, which is expected to drive the improvement of marine fuel oil consumption. Low-sulfur fuel oil, with more concentrated downstream demand in the marine fuel segment, may be more sensitive [2] - After the entry into force of the Mediterranean ECA in May, although the demand for low-sulfur fuel oil was partially replaced, refineries also reduced the supply of low-sulfur fuel oil through product adjustment. The European market performed stronger than expected, and the tightening of arbitrage cargo volume also supported the Asian market. However, in the medium term, the low-sulfur fuel oil market still faces the contradiction of demand share replacement and excess capacity [2] - As summer approaches, the demand for power plants in the Middle East and other regions will gradually increase. Saudi Arabia, the largest consumer, has shown an increasing trend in fuel oil procurement. According to shipping schedule data, Saudi Arabia's high-sulfur fuel oil imports in May are expected to reach 960,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 250,000 tons. However, OPEC began to accelerate production increase in May, and power plants can use more domestic raw materials (crude oil, fuel oil, etc.), so it is not advisable to have too high expectations for the peak-season demand increase in the power generation segment [2] Group 3: Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term volatile and upward, medium-term pressure still exists [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term volatile and upward, medium-term pressure still exists [3] - Cross-variety: No strategy [3] - Cross-period: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long the spread of FU2507 - 2509 at low prices (positive spread) [3] - Spot-futures: No strategy [3] - Options: No strategy [3]

Group 1 - OPEC is set to release its monthly oil market report, which is crucial for understanding global oil supply and demand dynamics [1] - The API crude oil inventory data for the week ending May 9 will be released, providing insights into U.S. oil stock levels [1] - The final CPI month-on-month figure for Germany in April will be published, which is important for assessing inflation trends in the Eurozone [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Governor Waller is scheduled to speak, which may influence market expectations regarding U.S. monetary policy [1] - Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson will also deliver remarks, potentially impacting investor sentiment [1] - EIA will release several key inventory reports, including crude oil, Cushing crude oil, and strategic petroleum reserve inventories for the week ending May 9, which are vital for gauging U.S. oil market conditions [1]

Group 1 - WTI crude oil has surpassed $59 per barrel, with an intraday increase of 0.67% [1]