Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Corn: Short - term, new grain harvest brings supply pressure, focus on North China's weather impact; mid - term, conduct band trading around new - season drivers; long - term, follow import substitution + planting cost pricing logic. Consider low - buying opportunities for the 2601 contract [5]. - Pig: Short - term, supply exceeds demand, near - month contracts focus on basis repair; mid - term, pig prices may enter a bottom - grinding stage; long - term, pig production capacity will continue to be realized. Suggest waiting and seeing for near - month contracts and being cautious about far - month contracts [11][12]. - Egg: Short - term, egg prices are under pressure and supported; mid - term, supply exceeds demand, prices may run in a low - level range; long - term, wait for the de - capacity process driven by over - culling [17][18]. 3. Summary by Commodity Corn - **Important Information**: On October 31, deep - processing enterprise purchase prices in the Northeast rose by 4 yuan/ton to 2001 yuan/ton, and were stable in North China at 2169 yuan/ton; port prices in Jinzhou rose by 10 yuan/ton to 2060 - 2090 yuan/ton, and were stable in Shekou at 2285 yuan/ton; the number of futures warehouse receipts was 63966; the wheat - corn price difference in Shandong widened to + 380 yuan/ton [5]. - **Market Logic**: Short - term, new grain supply pressure exists, spot is weakly stable, pay attention to North China's weather. Mid - term, trade in a wide range. Long - term, follow import substitution + planting cost pricing and focus on policies [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a mid - long - term range trading strategy. Focus on low - buying opportunities for the 2601 contract after callback, with the first support at 2100, the second at 2050 - 2080; the first pressure at 2150, the second at 2160 - 2170. For the 2603 contract, support is at 2120 - 2130 [6]. Pig - **Important Information**: On October 31, the national average pig price was 12.44 yuan/kg, down 0.04 yuan/kg. In September, the number of fertile sows was 40.35 million, a quarterly decrease of 0.2%. As of October 30, the average slaughter weight was 124.66 kg, up 0.06 kg from the previous week. The price difference between fat and standard pigs was 0.36 yuan/jin [11]. - **Market Logic**: Short - term, supply exceeds demand, near - month contracts focus on basis repair. Mid - term, pig prices may enter a bottom - grinding stage. Long - term, pig production capacity will continue to be realized [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: For near - month contracts, wait and see after closing short positions. For far - month contracts, pay attention to sow inventory changes. For the 2601 contract, the pressure at 12500 is verified, and support is at 11500 - 11600; for the 2603 contract, the pressure at 11800 - 12000 is verified, and support is at 11000 - 11200; for the 2605 contract, the pressure at 12200 - 12300 is verified, and support is at 11500 - 11600; for the 2607 contract, support is at 12000 [13]. Egg - **Important Information**: On October 31, the average egg price in the main production areas was 2.88 yuan/jin, stable; in the main sales areas, it was 3.34 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin. On October 30, the production - link inventory was 1.05 days, stable; the circulation - link inventory was 1.11 days, up 0.01 days. On October 31, the average price of old hens was 4.18 yuan/jin, up 0.02 yuan/jin. In September, the number of laying hens was about 1.368 billion, a month - on - month increase of 0.22% and a year - on - year increase of 6.05%. The estimated number of laying hens in October is 1.36 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.56% [17]. - **Market Logic**: Short - term, egg prices are under pressure and supported. Mid - term, supply exceeds demand, prices may run in a low - level range. Long - term, wait for the de - capacity process driven by over - culling [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: Close short positions. Wait and see. If inventory levels continue to rise, consider shorting the 2512 contract with pressure at 3180 - 3200. Mid - long - term, determine the trading direction based on culling behavior [19].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For螺纹, with weak demand, low - rising inventory, and a continued downward cycle in the downstream real - estate industry, it should be treated with a bearish - trending - with - fluctuations mindset. The main factors are weak real - estate demand, and the plan of domestic production capacity reduction [2]. - For热卷, due to weakening supply and demand, continued inventory reduction, export difficulties, and the plan of domestic production capacity reduction, it should also be treated with a bearish - trending - with - fluctuations mindset [7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content 1. Fundamental Analysis - **螺纹**: Demand is poor, inventory is rising from a low level, and traders' purchasing willingness is weak. The downstream real - estate industry is in a downward cycle [2]. - **热卷**: Both supply and demand are weakening, inventory is decreasing, and exports are blocked, but domestic policies may play a role [7]. 2. Basis Analysis - **螺纹**: The spot price is 3240, and the basis is 107, which is bullish [2]. - **热卷**: The spot price is 3350, and the basis is 5, which is neutral [7]. 3. Inventory Analysis - **螺纹**: The inventory in 35 major cities across the country is 437.48 million tons, decreasing month - on - month and increasing year - on - year, which is neutral [2]. - **热卷**: The inventory in 33 major cities across the country is 337.57 million tons, decreasing month - on - month and increasing year - on - year, which is bearish [7]. 4. Disk Analysis - **螺纹**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is neutral [2]. - **热卷**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is flat, which is bullish [7]. 5. Main Position Analysis - **螺纹**: The net position of the main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - **热卷**: The net position of the main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [7]. 6. Factors Analysis - **螺纹** - Bullish factors: Low production, spot premium, and domestic production capacity reduction expectation [4]. - Bearish factors: The downward cycle of the downstream real - estate industry continues, and terminal demand is weaker than the same period [4]. - **热卷** - Bullish factors: Fair demand, spot premium, and domestic production capacity reduction expectation [8]. - Bearish factors: Downstream demand enters the seasonal off - season, and the expectation is pessimistic [9].

Core Viewpoint - Tianshan Co., Ltd. (000877) emphasizes its commitment to capacity management and reduction in line with national policies, aiming to enhance its core competitiveness while aligning with industry supply-side structural reforms [1] Group 1 - The company strictly adheres to national capacity management policies and is determined to promote capacity reduction [1] - Tianshan Co. is advancing its capacity management work in an orderly manner, taking into account production line conditions, layout, and market demand [1] - The company leverages its advantage of having a wide layout of production lines to optimize its capacity structure primarily through internal capacity utilization [1]

Report Overview - Report Title: "Spot Regional Differentiation, Corn Focus on Low-Long Opportunities; Pig Prices Start Bottoming, Futures Trading for Basis Repair; Strong Expectation but Weak Reality, Eggs Focus on Regression Repair" - Report Date: October 24, 2025 - Researcher: Zhang Xiaojun - Contact Information: 0371 - 65617380 - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F0242716 - Futures Trading Consultation Number: Z0011864 [2][3] Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - Corn: Spot prices show regional differentiation, with Northeast China rebounding from a decline and North China relatively weak. There are low-long opportunities, and a range trading strategy is recommended in the medium and long term [5][7]. - Pigs: Pig prices are starting to bottom out, and the futures market is trading for basis repair. Near-term contracts will follow the supply-demand logic, while far-term contracts will trade on the expected difference in sow de-capacity [9][11]. - Eggs: There is a situation of strong expectation but weak reality. Eggs should focus on regression repair. Before large-scale concentrated chicken culling occurs, a high-short strategy is maintained [14][15]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Corn Important Information - On the 24th, the purchase price of deep-processing enterprises in Northeast China was 2015 yuan/ton, and in North China it was 2230 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton from the previous day. The prices at north and south ports were mainly weak and stable [5]. - As of October 24, the number of corn futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged from the previous day, totaling 61,968 [5]. - The wheat-corn price difference in Shandong was +270 yuan/ton as of October 23 [5]. - More than 60% of the autumn grain harvest nationwide is complete. The purchase by the China Grain Reserves Corporation in Northeast China has supported the market sentiment, and the autumn harvest in North China is accelerating [5]. Market Logic - Short term: The spot price in Northeast China has stopped falling and stabilized, while North China is stable with a weak trend. Attention should be paid to the impact of continuous rain in North China on yield and grain quality. The lower support for the futures price is in the range of 2050 - 2100 yuan/ton, and the upper pressure is related to the wheat-corn price difference [6]. - Medium term: Band trading should be carried out around the drivers of new-season corn, focusing on the opening price of new grain, farmers' selling sentiment, and downstream inventory building efforts. A wide-range trading strategy is recommended [6]. - Long term: The pricing logic of import substitution and planting cost is maintained, and policy guidance should be closely monitored [6]. Trading Strategy - In the medium and long term, a range trading strategy is maintained. Pay attention to the low-long opportunities of the 2601 contract after a pullback to test the support level at 2100. The first pressure level is 2150, and the second is 2160 - 2170 [7]. Pigs Important Information - On the 24th, the national average pig price was 11.74 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous day. It is expected that the pig price will be weak in the north and stable in the south on the morning of the 25th [9]. - In September 2025, the number of fertile sows was 40.35 million, a quarterly decrease of 0.2%, still 103.46% of the normal level. The number of new-born piglets in the first half of the year was at a historical high, indicating an increasing supply of pigs in the second half of the year [9]. - As of October 23, the average slaughter weight of pigs was 124.6 kg, an increase of 0.09 kg from the previous week [13]. - On October 24, the price difference between fat and lean pigs was 0.32 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.02 yuan/jin from the previous day [13]. - On October 24, the number of pig futures warehouse receipts increased by 95 to 206 [13]. Market Logic - Short term: After a rapid decline, pig prices have stopped falling and rebounded, and the spot market may enter a low-level shock bottoming stage. The futures market will continue the basis repair logic [10]. - Medium term: The number of new-born piglets from February to June increased month-on-month, indicating an expected increase in pig supply in the second half of the year, which limits the rise in pig prices [10]. - Long term: The number of fertile sows is still higher than the normal level, and the production efficiency has increased year-on-year. If there is no impact from epidemics, the pig production capacity will continue to be realized throughout the year [10]. Trading Strategy - The policy guidance on sow de-capacity can only affect the pig supply from the second half of next year. Near-term contracts will follow the supply-demand logic. It is recommended to stop losses on previous short positions and wait and see. Far-term contracts should trade on the expected difference in sow de-capacity, and pay attention to the actual change in sow inventory. Do not be overly bullish on far-term contracts before obvious sow de-capacity occurs [11]. - For the 2601 contract, the support level is 11300 - 11500, and the pressure level is 12300 - 12500. For the 2603 contract, the support is 11000 - 11200, and the pressure is 11700 - 11800. For the 2605 contract, the support is 11800 - 11900, and the pressure is 12200 - 12300. For the 2607 contract, the support is 12400 - 12600, and the pressure is 12800 - 13000 [11]. Eggs Important Information - On the 24th, the main line of egg spot prices rose slightly, and the low-price areas were stable. The average price in the main production areas was 2.9 yuan/jin, up 0.07 yuan/jin from the previous day, and in the main sales areas it was 3.25 yuan/jin, up 0.04 yuan/jin [14]. - On the 24th, the inventory level was stable with a slight increase. The average production link inventory nationwide was 1.04 days, up 0.01 days from the previous day, and the circulation link inventory was 1.1 days, unchanged from the previous day [14]. - On the 24th, the average price of old hens was 4.1 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day. As of October 23, the weekly culling age of old hens was 499 days, unchanged from the previous week [14]. - In September, the number of laying hens in the country was about 1.368 billion, a month-on-month increase of 0.22% and a year-on-year increase of 6.05%. The theoretical estimated number of laying hens in October is 1.36 billion, a month-on-month decrease of 0.56% [14]. Market Logic - Short term: Egg prices have fallen to a low level, and downstream inventory replenishment has driven the inventory down, causing egg prices to stop falling and rebound [14]. - Medium term: The pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the short term remains unchanged. The culling age of chickens is still high, the supply pressure of eggs has not been significantly released, and the short-term downstream consumption is relatively weak. It is expected that the spot price will lack continuous upward momentum. When the inventory stops falling and starts to rise, the spot price will be weak. Attention should be paid to the intensity and scale of chicken culling driven by low prices [14]. - Long term: The continuous increase in the scale of egg chicken farming may extend the price bottoming cycle. Wait patiently for the de-capacity process driven by excessive culling in the farming sector [15]. Trading Strategy - Before large-scale concentrated chicken culling occurs, a high-short strategy is maintained. Near-term contracts will continue the basis repair logic. The futures market rose significantly in the last two trading days of this week, but there is no substantial bullish driver in the fundamentals. It was suggested in the morning report on Friday to consider stopping profits on previous short positions. In the situation of strong expectation but weak reality, it is recommended to wait and see and wait for trading opportunities when the fundamentals and the market sentiment resonate [15].

Core Viewpoint - Tianrun Dairy's Q3 report reveals struggles within the industry cycle, with a revenue decline of 3.81% year-on-year and a shift from profit to loss, indicating significant operational challenges amid low milk prices [1][2]. Financial Performance - Revenue for the first three quarters reached 2.074 billion yuan, down 3.81% year-on-year [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders turned negative, recording a loss of 10.6145 million yuan, with Q3 net profit dropping 77.60% year-on-year to 11.2418 million yuan [1][2]. - Despite a 1.91% increase in dairy product sales to 226,800 tons, revenue declined, suggesting a potential impact from industry price wars [2]. Cost and Operational Challenges - The company faces cost pressures due to optimizing herd structure, with plans to reduce the number of cattle from 64,800 to 51,900 by September 2025, resulting in short-term costs that erode profits [1][3]. - Bad debt provisions related to student milk and nurturing project milk businesses have further impacted profits, highlighting collection risks [2]. Industry Context - The dairy industry is experiencing systemic shocks, with average fresh milk prices in major producing provinces dropping 3.2% year-on-year, leading to a supply-demand imbalance [2]. - Tianrun Dairy's gross margin has decreased from 16.76% in 2024 to 16.17% in Q3 2025, reflecting ongoing profitability challenges [2]. Competitive Landscape - As a regional dairy company, Tianrun's product structure increases sensitivity to market cycles, with 54% of revenue from ambient dairy products and about 40% from chilled dairy products, both facing intense competition [2]. - The strategy of reducing herd size and focusing on high-yield cows aims to mitigate sensitivity to low milk prices, representing a common approach during industry capacity reduction phases [3]. Future Outlook - Short-term challenges include slow recovery in liquid milk demand, high costs during new capacity ramp-up, and unresolved bad debt risks [3]. - The ability to convert capacity upgrades and cost control into competitive advantages will be crucial for Tianrun Dairy to navigate the upcoming industry cycle turning point [3].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Consumer Sector**: The retail sales growth is slowing down, with both commodity retail and catering revenues performing poorly. Appliance sales are particularly weak due to the cooling real estate market, while only a few categories like sports and entertainment products have seen growth exceeding 10% [1][3][4]. - **Pork Farming Sector**: The sector is undergoing a capacity reduction, with a focus on large-scale, low-cost producers like Muyuan and Wens, as well as significant improvements in New Hope [2][34][35]. - **E-commerce and Internet Sector**: Major players like Alibaba, JD, and Pinduoduo are currently at low levels, with expectations for cloud business growth to accelerate to around 30% in Q3 [22][23]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Retail Sales Performance**: In September 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of social retail sales was only 3%, a decline from August. This trend indicates a significant drop in consumer spending since the second half of the year [3][4][8]. - **Weakness in Commodity Retail**: The commodity retail sector saw a year-on-year growth of only 3.3% in September, the lowest for 2025, primarily dragging down overall retail sales [4][5]. - **Challenges in Consumer Market**: The slowing growth of disposable income, which fell to 4.5% in Q3, is a major challenge for the consumer market. Measures to increase income and reduce burdens are necessary to improve consumer confidence [8][9][10]. - **Beverage Industry Performance**: Notable companies like Nongfu Spring are expected to see over 25% growth in Q3, while the Dongfang Shuying brand is projected to grow over 50% [11]. - **Snack Industry Dynamics**: The snack sector, particularly Wei Long's spicy strips, has rebounded, with konjac products maintaining a growth rate of 40-50% [12]. - **Jewelry Sector Trends**: Brands like Chow Tai Fook have benefited from rising gold prices, achieving better-than-expected sales, while established brands have a competitive edge due to their brand strength and design capabilities [13]. - **Cloud and E-commerce Business Outlook**: The cloud business is expected to grow by around 30%, while traditional e-commerce is stabilizing with a projected 10% growth in customer management revenue [23][25]. Additional Important Insights - **Policy Measures for Consumer Confidence**: Key policy measures include reducing burdens related to healthcare and pensions to increase disposable income and improve public service supply [9][10]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Companies like Alibaba and JD are recommended for their strong fundamentals and potential for recovery, despite current low valuations [22][26][27]. - **Pork Farming Capacity Reduction Logic**: The logic behind capacity reduction in the pork farming sector is strengthening, with a focus on large producers to stabilize prices [34]. - **Hai Da Group's IPO Plans**: Hai Da Group plans to IPO its overseas assets, which is expected to support long-term growth despite potential short-term dilution concerns [37][38]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and trends across various sectors, highlighting both challenges and opportunities for investors.

Core Insights - A fire incident occurred at Chengxing Co., Ltd. on October 20, 2025, but no casualties were reported [1][2] - The fire was caused by a small amount of yellow phosphorus leaking from a tank truck, which self-ignited [2] - The incident has raised concerns about the yellow phosphorus industry, which is already facing production restrictions due to environmental regulations and supply-side reforms [2] Company Overview - Chengxing Co., Ltd. has a yellow phosphorus production capacity of 160,000 tons per year, ranking among the top in the country [2] - The company reported a total operating revenue of 1.776 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.85% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 18.56 million yuan, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 211.08%, indicating a turnaround from previous losses [3] Industry Context - The total production of yellow phosphorus in China for the first half of 2025 was approximately 413,900 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.52% [2] - The average market price for yellow phosphorus was 23,300 yuan per ton, up 1.83% year-on-year [2] - The industry is undergoing significant changes due to environmental inspections and supply-side reforms, which are expected to eliminate smaller producers and enhance the competitive edge of larger companies like Chengxing [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - For rebar, with weak demand, rising inventory at a low level, low purchasing willingness of traders, and the downstream real - estate industry in a downward cycle, it should be treated with a bearish - biased trading range mindset [2]. - For hot - rolled coil, with weakening supply and demand, decreasing inventory, blocked exports, and potential domestic policy efforts, it should also be treated with a bearish - biased trading range mindset [7]. Summary by Related Catalog Rebar - **Fundamentals**: Demand is lackluster, inventory is rising from a low level, traders' purchasing willingness is low, and the downstream real - estate industry is in a downward cycle; bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The rebar spot price is 3230, and the basis is 127; bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in 35 major cities nationwide is 4.673 million tons, increasing both month - on - month and year - on - year; neutral [2]. - **Market**: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward; bearish [2]. - **Main Position**: The net position of rebar's main contract is short, and short positions are decreasing; bearish [2]. - **Likely Factors**: Low production, spot premium, and domestic production - cut expectations [4]. - **Negative Factors**: The downward cycle of the downstream real - estate industry continues, and terminal demand remains weak and lower than the same period [4]. Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: Both supply and demand have weakened, inventory continues to decrease, exports are blocked, and domestic policies may be implemented; neutral [7]. - **Basis**: The hot - rolled coil spot price is 3340, and the basis is 55; bullish [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in 33 major cities nationwide is 3.293 million tons, increasing both month - on - month and year - on - year; bearish [7]. - **Market**: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward; bearish [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of hot - rolled coil's main contract is short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [7]. - **Likely Factors**: Decent demand, spot premium, and domestic production - cut expectations [8]. - **Negative Factors**: Downstream demand enters the seasonal off - season, and the outlook is pessimistic [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing concerns about real estate devaluation in China, highlighting specific types of properties that are more susceptible to depreciation due to market adjustments and demographic changes [1][12]. Group 1: Market Trends - The real estate market in China is experiencing a significant adjustment, with 38 out of 70 major cities reporting a year-on-year decline in second-hand housing prices, with the highest drop reaching 11.2% [1]. - The sales area of commercial residential properties nationwide decreased by 12.3% year-on-year, with first-tier cities down by 5.7%, second-tier cities by 8.9%, and third and fourth-tier cities by 18.6% [1][12]. Group 2: Types of Properties at Risk - **Suburban "Sleep Towns"**: Properties in suburban areas lacking adequate infrastructure and industry support are facing severe challenges, with average transaction cycles reaching 267 days, 2.8 times longer than city center areas [3][4]. - **Old Residential Communities**: Approximately 18.6 million old communities exist, with 25% predicted to face continuous depreciation due to lack of renovation opportunities [7][8]. - **Properties in Overcapacity Regions**: Areas reliant on single industries are experiencing population outflows, leading to reduced housing demand and increased risk of property devaluation [9][11]. Group 3: Factors Contributing to Devaluation - For suburban properties, high commuting costs, inadequate amenities, and population return to urban centers are key factors driving depreciation [4][5]. - Old properties face risks due to aging infrastructure, outdated layouts, and high energy consumption, making them less appealing to modern buyers [7][8]. - In overcapacity regions, reduced job opportunities and declining local government finances diminish the attractiveness of real estate investments [11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The real estate market is transitioning from an "incremental era" to a "stock era," with a predicted annual housing demand of 8 million units from 2025 to 2035, significantly lower than previous years [12]. - The market is expected to focus more on the living attributes and service functions of properties rather than mere investment appreciation, leading to a clear differentiation between high-quality assets and those lacking competitive advantages [12][16].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [4] Core Views - During the holiday period (September 29 - October 7), the Hong Kong building materials index rose by 2.55%, with glass products performing the best, including China Glass (+13.21%) and Xinyi Glass (+5.76%). Cement stocks followed, with China National Building Material (+4.55%) and West China Cement (+4.14%). Consumer building materials were relatively weak, with China Liansu down by 2.08% [2][12] - The current valuation percentiles indicate that glass products are below the 50th percentile of the past three years, while cement is above glass. Key companies like China National Building Material and Conch Cement are around the 80th percentile, suggesting that the recent rise is mainly due to the greater elasticity of undervalued glass products [2][12] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and five other departments jointly released the "Building Materials Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)", which addresses the weak market demand and structural issues in the building materials industry, outlining key goals and initiatives for 2025-2026. The plan is expected to accelerate capacity reduction and improve the competitive landscape of the industry [2][12] Summary by Sections Market Performance - In the two trading days before the holiday (September 29-30), the CSI 300 index rose by 1.99%, while the building materials sector (CITIC) increased by 1.57%. Notable individual stock performances included Shengfeng Cement (+14.8%) and Wanli Stone (+12.2%) [10][12] Recommended Stocks - The recommended stocks for the week include West China Cement, China National Building Material, Honghe Technology, China Jushi, Huaxin Cement, Sankeshu, and Dongpeng Holdings. The report suggests that the traditional building materials industry is nearing a cyclical bottom, with potential growth in new materials due to high demand in downstream sectors [3][16]