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培训资料:如何做研究与投资?从四个逻辑分析几个大类行业
材料汇· 2025-05-26 14:10
Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of time management in research and investment, highlighting that time is the most scarce asset for individuals in this field [3][4] - It advocates for focusing on significant issues and understanding the macro, industry, business, and financial logic to make informed decisions [5][6][7] - The article discusses the essence of industries and key changes, stressing the need to grasp core elements driving industry development and company growth [7][8][9] Group 1: Importance of Research Methodology - Time management is crucial, and researchers should prioritize significant problems over minor details [3][4] - A scientific and reasonable research methodology should be established and continuously optimized [4] - Research should be approached through four logical frameworks: macro logic, industry logic, business logic, and financial logic [5][6] Group 2: Understanding Industry Dynamics - Different industries have unique characteristics and core drivers that evolve over time [7][8] - The article highlights the importance of recognizing key changes at critical moments in an industry’s lifecycle [8] - For example, in the TMT sector, the end of the smartphone boom signifies a shift in innovation dynamics [8] Group 3: Core Competencies of Companies - Companies must align their strategies with macro and industry trends to succeed [6][7] - The essence of a business model should adapt to societal trends and human nature to ensure sustainability [10] - The article emphasizes the role of entrepreneurial spirit and governance structure as core competitive advantages [11] Group 4: Industry-Specific Insights - In the consumer goods sector, the article notes the diminishing demographic dividend and the shift towards experience and service-oriented consumption [12][13] - The service industry is expected to grow as consumer spending shifts towards experiences and services [14][15] - The manufacturing sector retains competitive advantages due to its comprehensive capabilities and large domestic market [18][19] Group 5: Research Process and Individual Traits - The research process involves induction, deduction, and empirical validation, which are interrelated [23][24][25] - Key traits for successful researchers include curiosity, honesty, and independence [26][27][28] - Continuous learning and building a personal research framework are essential for effective research [35][36] Group 6: Practical Recommendations - Establish a personal wisdom circle to enhance research quality [33][34] - Engage in extensive reading and learning to stay informed about industry trends [35] - Create structured research documentation to improve efficiency and facilitate future analysis [37]
段永平最新持仓曝光!新进三家公司
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2025-05-16 08:57
Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - Duan Yongping's investment strategy reveals a shift in focus towards technology companies, with new positions in Microsoft, Nvidia, and TSMC, while reducing holdings in several other major companies like Apple and Alibaba [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Portfolio Changes - As of Q1 2025, Duan Yongping's H&H International Investment holds 11 US stocks with a total market value of $12 billion, approximately 86.3 billion RMB [1]. - New investments include Microsoft, Nvidia, and TSMC, while he increased his stakes in Pinduoduo and Occidental Petroleum [1][2]. - Significant reductions were made in holdings of Apple, Berkshire Hathaway B, Alibaba, Google C, Disney, and Moderna [1]. Group 2: Specific Stock Holdings - Apple remains the largest holding with a market value of $7.602 billion, accounting for 63.33% of the portfolio, despite a reduction of 6.640396 million shares [2]. - Berkshire Hathaway B is the second-largest holding at $1.801 billion, representing 15% of the portfolio, with a decrease of 239,800 shares [2]. - Pinduoduo is the third-largest holding, with a market value of $918 million and an increase of 525,200 shares [2]. Group 3: Insights on New Investments - Duan Yongping expressed interest in Nvidia, acknowledging the company's potential in AI, despite not fully understanding its business model [3][4]. - He views TSMC and Microsoft as strong B2B companies, indicating a late realization of their significance in the tech sector [4]. - Pinduoduo is seen as a company with future potential, although it has not yet generated significant profits [4].
打粉只是其中一个很细的一环,重点在商业模式
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-15 08:33
打粉只是其中一个很细的一环 我是胖张 很多人就知道如何打粉,如何获取客户,如何搞流量,但他不知道商业模式,不知道如何营销,不知道产品,他一样赚不到大钱,我个人认为,打粉,私 域,它只是整个商业模式当中极其细小的一个细小环节 打过来的粉,精不精准,还有这些粉能不能转化,以及粉丝如何销售,卖什么产品比较好,以及让粉丝持续复购买单,这些全是这一个项目当中的很关键的 一环,你不能说就打个粉就行了,打个粉,你有那些粉没有用,最多卖粉,但卖粉它不能刚好配对好你的后端甲方,你只能不断的变换收粉的人,这种是极 其不稳定的。 真正的打粉厉害的,是将整个产品,整个项目,整个链路全部打通的,这才是高手,你别和我讲你只会打粉,那个没有用,但凡我身边说他打粉厉害,我没 见到一个说赚大钱的,我身边赚大钱的一般是他们营销也厉害,产品也厉害,而打粉只是他们获取客户的一个细小一环节的这些人。 这些人才是大老板,我讲一下我这边非常不起眼的一哥们,他是如何做的,他只是把流量,作为其中一个很细小的版块而已,他现在主要是做护肤品的,这 哥们一年三个多亿,你看着这人一点都不起眼。 说实在的,走在路上,你都不知道这哥们一年搞几个亿的,首先这哥们的客户群体 ...
财报会说话:真实的茶饮出海现状
FBIF食品饮料创新· 2025-05-11 16:14
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant trend of Chinese tea brands expanding internationally, particularly in Southeast Asia, highlighting the strategies and challenges faced by various companies in this competitive landscape [5][4]. Group 1: Market Overview - The global ready-to-drink beverage market is projected to exceed $1.1 trillion by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.2% from 2023 to 2028 [4]. - Southeast Asia's tea beverage market is expected to grow from $20.1 billion in 2023 to $49.5 billion by 2028, achieving a CAGR of 19.8%, making it one of the fastest-growing regions globally [4]. Group 2: Company Strategies - Different Chinese tea brands are at various stages of international expansion: - Mixue Ice City focuses on scaling up [7]. - Nayuki targets high-end markets [7]. - Cha Bai Dao emphasizes differentiation [7]. - Gu Ming concentrates on regional deep cultivation [7]. - Mixue Ice City leverages its supply chain advantages to build a tea empire, with a significant increase in overseas store openings [10][11]. - Nayuki's strategy involves positioning itself as a luxury brand in Southeast Asia, with high average order values and premium pricing compared to local competitors [20][21]. - Cha Bai Dao adopts a localized approach, ensuring product quality and flavor by sourcing local ingredients and adapting to regional tastes [27][28]. - Gu Ming remains cautious about international expansion, focusing on deepening its presence in lower-tier cities within China [31][32]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Mixue Ice City's financial report indicates a substantial increase in overseas store count, with 4,895 stores outside mainland China as of December 31, 2024, up from 4,331 the previous year [10][11]. - Nayuki reported a revenue of 4.921 billion yuan in 2024, a decline of 4.7% year-on-year, and a shift from profit to a net loss of 919 million yuan [21][24]. - Cha Bai Dao has successfully opened multiple stores in Southeast Asia, with plans for continued expansion in 2025 [28][30]. Group 4: Challenges and Market Dynamics - The international expansion of Chinese tea brands faces challenges such as local competition, regulatory changes regarding environmental policies, and the need for effective supply chain management [34][36]. - The capital market's response to these brands is polarized, with some experiencing significant stock price declines while others, like Mixue and Gu Ming, have seen substantial increases in market value [37][39]. - The article emphasizes that the next phase of competition in the Southeast Asian tea market will hinge on innovation and the ability to adapt to local consumer preferences [38][40].
你的商业模式好不好,就看这三点
创业家· 2025-05-07 09:57
Group 1 - The three essential elements of a business model are customer value, resource capability, and profit mechanism [1] - Customer value refers to the value provided to customers and the reasons for their choice [2] - Resource capability addresses the unique resources or advantages that a company possesses [2] - The profit mechanism outlines the sources of a company's profits [2]
AI垂类模型的生死劫:大多数玩家可能陷入三大陷阱
3 6 Ke· 2025-05-06 11:15
《孙子兵法》有云:"上兵伐谋,其次伐交,其次伐兵,其下攻城。"此言意在阐明,制胜之道在于谋略,智者未战先谋败,方能立于不败之地。 正如我在上篇文章《工业互联网+人工智能,谁能笑到最后?四类玩家分析》中所承诺的,本文让我们一起"事先验尸",深入剖析垂类模型企业在转型过 程中可能面临的风险与挑战。 当下,垂类AI模型俨然已成为业界新宠,然而,在这股喧嚣之下,我们更需要保持冷静和理性。不妨换位思考:倘若一家垂类模型企业最终走向失败, 其致命伤会在何处? 在开启这场思维探索之前,我们要先向那些不断试错的先行者致敬。正是他们的探索和迷失,铺就了我们前行的道路。 "事前验尸"虽然听起来有些可怕,但却是一种颇具创意的逆向思维决策方法。 步骤是在初步拟定行动方案后、正式实施之前,要求决策参与者做一个反向假设:假设拟定的方案已经付诸实施,但结果惨遭失败。基于这个假设,参与 者需要推演可能导致失败的原因,进而对原有方案进行调整和优化,以求最大程度地规避风险,确保成功。 这种思维方式的精妙之处在于,它能够帮助我们跳出思维定势,审慎地看待可能的未来。 站在当下这个节点,垂类模型企业正面临前所未有的机遇和挑战,这注定是一段充满未知、机 ...
段永平:做个有所不为的人
Hu Xiu· 2025-04-29 07:24
Group 1 - The announcement of Duan Yongping's temporary departure from the investment community Xueqiu has become a hot topic in the domestic investment circle [1] - Duan Yongping, a legendary figure who started his entrepreneurial journey at 28 and retired at 40, has significantly influenced a generation of investors and entrepreneurs [1] - His investment philosophy has impacted numerous influential companies such as Xiaobawang, BBK Electronics, OPPO, VIVO, Pinduoduo, and Jitu Express [1] Group 2 - Investment is fundamentally about buying companies, which translates to purchasing their future cash flows discounted to present value [3][5] - The essence of investment lies in value investing, where the focus is on the company's intrinsic value rather than market price fluctuations [9][10] - A good business model is characterized by a sustainable competitive advantage, allowing for consistent profitability and cash flow [14][18] Group 3 - Apple is highlighted as a prime example of a company with an exceptional user experience and a strong business model that competitors find hard to replicate [16][17] - The single product model of Apple is noted for its efficiency in resource allocation and cost control, leading to high-quality products at lower costs [18][19] - Apple's marketing strategy is also recognized for its effectiveness, achieving high sales prices with relatively low advertising costs [21] Group 4 - The importance of having a guiding principle or "North Star" in decision-making is emphasized, which can lead to significant long-term differences in outcomes [25][26] - The concept of "doing the right things" and maintaining integrity is presented as essential for long-term success in business [30][29]
华特达因2025年一季报简析:营收净利润同比双双增长,盈利能力上升
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-04-19 22:25
Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 616 million yuan for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.78% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 182 million yuan, up 8.13% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin improved to 86.31%, an increase of 1.68% compared to the previous year, while the net margin rose to 56.12%, up 0.71% [1] Key Financial Metrics - The company's operating expenses, including sales, management, and financial costs, totaled 109 million yuan, accounting for 17.7% of revenue, which is a 0.93% increase year-on-year [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) increased to 0.78 yuan, reflecting an 8.33% year-on-year growth [1] - The cash flow from operating activities per share decreased significantly by 76.42% to 0.23 yuan [1] Business Model and Market Position - The company has a strong return on invested capital (ROIC) of 21.97% and a net profit margin of 47.13%, indicating high value addition in its products or services [3] - The company has a healthy cash asset position and has cumulatively raised 140 million yuan in financing while distributing 1.346 billion yuan in dividends since its listing [3] - The collaboration with China Resources is aimed at promoting vitamin D supplements, enhancing market penetration and resource sharing [5] Fund Holdings - The largest fund holding in the company is by Tianzhi New Consumption Mixed Fund, which holds 13,200 shares, marking a new entry into the top ten holdings [4] - The fund's current scale is 0.17 billion yuan, with a recent net value of 0.8065, reflecting a decline of 0.74% from the previous trading day [4]
中泰资管天团 | 田瑀:如果好模式与好能力无法兼得
中泰证券资管· 2025-04-17 08:58
很多人喜欢给投资做总结。比如,价值投资的理想标的,得兼具好生意和好的管理层。 生意指的是商业模式,管理层通常用来代指公司能力。一眼看去,这总结自然没错。但问题是,在很多时 候,市场并没有那么多同时满足好生意和好公司这两个条件的标的。所以在投资中我们会不时面对现实选 择,如果好模式与好能力无法兼得,是选"好商业模式+平庸能力",还是选"平庸商业模式+好能力"? 要做这道选择题,我建议先来厘清模式和公司能力,以及它们分别会如何影响企业盈利。 在我看来,商业模式指的是一个企业如何做一门生意,包括但不限于客户需求是什么,支付意愿如何,采 购目标如何,成本结构如何等问题。好的商业模式,指的是在既有的做生意方式下,可能会产生更大的可 持续差异上限。 比如说浓香型白酒,都是52度500毫升,品质都很好,可同类产品间溢价差别却非常明显。 化工就是其典型的例子。这种行业往往产品同质化严重,客户粘性几乎为零,只能靠成本取得优势。但即 使在这样的商业模式下,有些企业仍然可以通过后天努力,比如生产管理,范围经济等手段实现持续的成 本优势,从而实现可观的盈利能力。记得有个化工从业者曾经跟我说过,"当行业毛利率集体跌破5%时, 我们愣是 ...
个人投资清单
雪球· 2025-03-03 07:25
长按即可免费加入 风险提示:本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见,所涉及标的不作推荐,据此买卖,风险自负。 作者:老韭菜做梦想自由 来源:雪球 一直想写一个checklist(清单) , 因为自己总是会犯一些基本错误 , 这些基本错误实际上是可 以通过一个checklist来排除的 , 好记性不如烂笔头 。 以后通过持续的完善这个checklist来作为自 己买入卖出调仓变动的操作手册 , 只有通过了这个操作手册的checklist才能进行操作 , 减少自 己犯一些基本错误 , 同时随着完善 , 也能更好的让自己犯过的错误不要再犯 。 因为记忆的原因 , 有些一时也记不起来 , 只能等记起来了 , 或者看到球友的想法来添加 , 希 望有需求的球友可以一起来完善这份checklist , 谢谢 。 一 : 总原则 不懂不做 。 二 : 商业模式/企业文化/估值 商业模式是指企业长期赚钱的核心方式 , 企业文化是指管理层是不是一群靠谱的人 , 估值就是 指值多少钱 。 商业模式也可以用方丈的十字真言 : 赚的多 , 赚的久 , 赚的容易 。 或者也可以用长坡厚雪来 概述 。 其中赚的多是指总的营收/利润多 , 行业空 ...