1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the asphalt futures market showed a narrow - range oscillation. After a previous sharp decline, there is a rebound repair momentum, and the downward momentum has weakened. The social inventory of asphalt continues to decline. Although demand has entered the off - season, more negative feedback from the demand side is needed for a unilateral decline in the futures market [8]. - In the future, the futures market lacks bullish drivers and is expected to continue a weak trend. As the asphalt downstream enters the off - season, the pressure of supply surplus is emerging. The expectation of crude oil supply surplus exerts long - term pressure on the futures market. Recently, the cease - fire negotiation between Russia and Ukraine is expected to continue, and the geopolitical risk premium has declined. In the short term, after a large decline, there is a rebound repair momentum, but the oil price is under pressure in the short term, and the cost - side support has weakened. It is expected that the futures market will continue a wide - range oscillation [8][51]. - It is recommended to focus on the range of 2900 - 3100 yuan/ton for the BU2601 contract [8][51] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - Market focus: The cease - fire negotiation between Russia and Ukraine is expected to continue, and the geopolitical risk premium has declined; the US EIA crude oil inventory decreased this week; the asphalt cracking spread decreased month - on - month [7]. - Key data: As of November 19, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 24.8%, a decrease of 4.2 percentage points from the previous statistical period; as of November 21, the weekly output of domestic asphalt was 44.1 tons, a decrease of 7.3 tons from last week; the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 64.2 tons, a decrease of 0.5 tons from last week; the social inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 79.4 tons, a decrease of 3.1 tons from last week [7] 3.2 Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors for asphalt: Supply has decreased [11]. - Bearish factors for asphalt: Demand has weakened, and the oil price has declined [11] 3.3 Macro Analysis - The US and Russia are discussing a framework plan to end the conflict. The US envoy met with the Russian envoy in Miami last month to discuss the plan, which requires Ukraine to make major territorial concessions to Russia. The plan has been rejected by Kiev before. The US government is following the model of mediating the cease - fire in Gaza last month [12]. - Russia's response: The Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said that Russia has not received any relevant information from the US through official channels. Such news should be evaluated based on official communication rather than media reports [12]. - Zelensky has received the US peace plan draft. The US believes that this plan may bring a breakthrough to the stagnant diplomatic process. Zelensky is expected to talk with President Trump soon [12]. - The discussion between the US and Russia on ending the conflict conveys a short - term change in the US attitude towards Russia. The market expects that the improvement of US - Russia relations will lead to the relaxation of US sanctions on the Russian energy sector, driving the oil price down. However, due to the volatility of US - Russia relations, the driving force is not sustainable, and the oil price generally maintains a wide - range oscillation [12] 3.4 Supply - Demand Analysis Supply - As of November 21, the weekly output of domestic asphalt was 44.1 tons, a decrease of 7.3 tons from last week. Output from local refineries decreased, and that from PetroChina and Sinopec decreased slightly. The refinery operating rate is in a seasonal decline, and supply is expected to continue to decline [13]. - As of November 19, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 24.8%, a decrease of 4.2 percentage points from the previous statistical period. The operating rates in East China and Shandong decreased significantly. As refineries enter the seasonal maintenance period, the operating rate is expected to decline, and the supply pressure will gradually weaken [22] Demand - As of November 21, the weekly shipment volume of domestic asphalt was 37 tons, an increase of 0.8 tons from the previous statistical date. The shipment volume is still at a low level this year. In the north, the low - temperature weather has led to the completion of downstream road construction, and the demand improvement in the south is not obvious. As demand enters the off - season, the shipment volume faces seasonal decline pressure [23]. - As of November 21, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic modified asphalt was 10.59%, a decrease of 0.63 percentage points from last week. The capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt is in a seasonal decline, and it still faces downward pressure as the downstream enters the off - season [26] Inventory - As of November 21, the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 64.2 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons from the previous week, mainly due to the decline in enterprise inventory in North China [33]. - As of November 21, the social inventory of domestic asphalt was 79.4 tons, a decrease of 3.1 tons from the previous week, continuing the downward trend since August. Attention should be paid to the subsequent inventory decline speed [40] Spread - As of November 21, the weekly profit of domestic asphalt processing dilution was - 571 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 42 yuan/ton. The domestic asphalt basis was 182 yuan/ton. As of November 19, the asphalt - to - crude - oil ratio was 51.25 [49] 4. Market Outlook - The futures market lacks bullish drivers and is expected to continue a weak trend. As the asphalt downstream enters the off - season, the pressure of supply surplus is emerging. The expectation of crude oil supply surplus exerts long - term pressure on the futures market. Recently, the cease - fire negotiation between Russia and Ukraine is expected to continue, and the geopolitical risk premium has declined. In the short term, after a large decline, there is a rebound repair momentum, but the oil price is under pressure in the short term, and the cost - side support has weakened. It is expected that the futures market will continue a wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to focus on the range of 2900 - 3100 yuan/ton for the BU2601 contract [51]

Group 1: Energy - The international oil price fell overnight, with the Brent 01 contract down 0.8%. The geopolitical risk premium of the Russia-Ukraine conflict was suppressed, and the oil price rebound due to geopolitical factors was limited. The market is expected to be weak and volatile [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil is stronger than high-sulfur fuel oil. The low-sulfur market is supported by supply disruptions and strong diesel cracking, while the high-sulfur market is expected to face supply increases in the medium term [21] - The cost support for asphalt is weakening, and the demand is expected to decline seasonally. The market sentiment is bearish [22] - The expected import cost of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) is rising in December. The demand from both the chemical and combustion sectors is improving, and the LPG market is expected to be strong [23] Group 2: Metals - Precious metals are oscillating at a high level. The employment data is mixed, and the Fed officials' statements are divided. The possibility of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in December is high. Attention should be paid to the directional breakthrough on the technical side [2] - Copper prices fell overnight due to a stronger dollar and weak demand. Short positions can be held with a stop-loss at 87,000 yuan [3] - Aluminum prices fluctuated narrowly. The Fed's interest rate cut prospects are uncertain, and the aluminum market may continue to adjust. Attention should be paid to the support of the middle Bollinger Band [4] - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton. The inventory structure is gradually being repaired, and there is still profit potential for cross-market arbitrage [7] - Lead prices are supported by low inventory levels, but the external market is under pressure due to high inventory. The import window for aluminum ingots may open, and the upward momentum of aluminum prices is insufficient [8] - Nickel prices are weakening. The macro risk is increasing, and the support from the upstream price rebound is weakening. The inventory of nickel and stainless steel is increasing [9] - Tin prices are oscillating. The environmental rectification in Malaysia has limited impact on the market. The import of tin concentrate in China has improved slightly, but the resumption of supply from Myanmar is not strong. Short positions can be held with a stop-loss at 295,000 yuan [10] - Lithium carbonate prices are strengthening. The downstream demand is strong, and the inventory is decreasing. The technical analysis shows a range breakthrough, and a buy-on-dip strategy can be adopted [11] - Polycrystalline silicon prices are falling. The photovoltaic demand is weak, and the actual supply-demand improvement is limited. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [12] - Industrial silicon prices are undergoing a technical correction. The downstream demand for polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon is expected to improve, which may boost the price [13] Group 3: Building Materials - Steel prices rebounded at night. The demand for rebar and hot-rolled coils is improving, but the supply pressure is gradually easing. Attention should be paid to the environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan [14] - Iron ore prices are oscillating. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to be range-bound in the short term [15] - Coke and coking coal prices are expected to be weak and oscillating. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream demand is stable, but the steel mills' profit is average, and the pressure on raw material prices is high [16][17] - Manganese silicon and silicon iron prices are falling. The market expects coal supply to increase, which may lower the cost. The demand is stable, but the supply is high, and the bottom support may weaken [18][19] Group 4: Chemicals - Urea prices are oscillating narrowly. The Indian tender results will affect the market sentiment. The agricultural demand is weakening, but the industrial demand is improving, and the inventory is decreasing [24] - Methanol prices are in a weak position. The overseas supply is high, and the demand is expected to decline. The market is expected to remain weak in the short term [25] - Pure benzene prices are rebounding, but the sustainability is uncertain. The supply pressure is easing, and the demand is expected to improve, but the export to the US faces challenges [26] - Styrene prices are supported by cost and supply reduction. The demand from the European market is strong [27] - Polypropylene, polyethylene, and propylene prices are expected to be weak. The supply is high, and the demand is low, and the supply-demand contradiction is increasing [28] - PVC and caustic soda prices are falling. The cost support is weakening, and the demand is insufficient. Attention should be paid to the cost changes and profit margins [29] - PX and PTA prices are oscillating. The supply from overseas may be affected, and the demand is weakening. The market is cautiously bullish [30] - Ethylene glycol prices are expected to be bearish. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. A short strategy can be adopted [31] - Short fiber and bottle chip prices are under pressure. The demand is weakening, and the prices are expected to follow the raw material prices [32] Group 5: Agricultural Products - Soybean and soybean meal prices are oscillating. The US soybean planting area is expected to increase, and the impact of La Nina on South American soybean production needs to be monitored. A buy-on-dip strategy can be considered after the correction [36] - Soybean oil and palm oil prices are affected by the US biodiesel policy. The palm oil price may have bottomed out [37] - Rapeseed and rapeseed oil prices are under pressure. The import volume has decreased, and the demand is weak. A bearish strategy is recommended [38] - Corn prices are oscillating. The supply is increasing, and the demand is improving. The Dalian corn futures 01 contract may continue to decline [40] - Hog prices are at a low level. The futures market is trading on the potential supply pressure in the future. The pig price may form a double bottom in the first half of next year [41] - Egg prices are rebounding strongly. The spot price is stable. Attention should be paid to whether the previous price decline has ended [42] - Cotton prices are range-bound. The US cotton export sales are increasing, but the domestic demand is average. The Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to be range-bound in the short term [43] - Sugar prices are oscillating. The international market supply is sufficient, and the domestic market is focusing on the new season's production estimate. The production in Guangxi is expected to be good [43] - Apple prices are oscillating at a high level. The short-term price is strong due to low inventory, but the long-term inventory pressure may exist. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction [44] Group 6: Others - The container shipping index (European line) is expected to be stable in early December and may improve in late December. The 02 contract may be slightly discounted compared to the 12 contract, and the far-month contracts are expected to be low and oscillating [20] - Wood prices are oscillating. The low inventory supports the price, and a wait-and-see strategy is recommended [45] - Pulp prices are falling. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to remain weak in the short term [46] - Stock index futures are falling. The A-share market is volatile, and the external market is uncertain. A wait-and-see strategy is recommended, and attention can be paid to stable, consumer, and cyclical sectors [47] - Treasury bond futures are falling. The market is trading lightly, and the structure is differentiated. The change in market risk preference may bring new opportunities [48]

Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The supply - side contraction - induced cyclical inflection point of oil prices has not been seen yet, and the rebound space of oil prices due to geopolitical factors is generally limited, with the market showing a mainly weak - oscillating trend [2]. - Precious metals are oscillating at high levels, waiting for new drivers and technical directional guidance [3]. - The overall trend of various commodities is affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and cost fluctuations, and different commodities have different market outlooks and investment suggestions [2 - 48]. Summary by Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices declined, with the Brent 01 contract down 1.77%. The U.S. is promoting a Russia - Ukraine agreement, suppressing geopolitical risk premiums. U.S. EIA commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 342,600 barrels last week. The supply - side contraction - induced cyclical inflection point of oil prices has not appeared, and the market is mainly weak - oscillating [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The logic of high - sulfur fuel oil being weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil continues. Low - sulfur fuel oil is strong due to supply - side disruptions, but there is medium - term supply pressure. High - sulfur fuel oil supply may become looser in the medium term [21]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: The expected import cost of international LPG in December is rising. The improvement in the profitability of butane dehydrogenation units boosts the downstream chemical enterprises' enthusiasm for starting operations, and the demand for the combustion end has improved. LPG is expected to be strong - oscillating [23]. - **Natural Gas**: No relevant information in this report. - **Coal**: - **Coking Coal**: The market's expectation of coal mine supply guarantee has increased, and the price has declined. The total inventory of coking coal has increased slightly, and the price may be weak - oscillating [17]. - **Steam Coal**: No relevant information in this report. - **Uranium**: No relevant information in this report. Metals - **Precious Metals**: - **Gold & Silver**: Overnight, precious metals were strong - oscillating with sharp intraday fluctuations. The Fed's October meeting minutes showed serious differences among officials, and the market's expectation of a December interest rate cut dropped below 40%. Precious metals are waiting for new drivers [3]. - **Platinum & Palladium**: No relevant information in this report. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper rose, and SHFE copper was oscillating with reduced positions. The Fed's meeting minutes showed differences, and the expectation of a December interest rate cut dropped to 30%. Chile raised its average copper price forecast for this year and next. Hold short positions with a stop - loss of 87,000 yuan [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, SHFE aluminum was oscillating. This week, non - ferrous metals as a whole adjusted, and SHFE aluminum fell back from a high level. The market is still looking for economic prospects and interest rate cut clues, and the aluminum market is expected to be short - term oscillating [5]. - **Zinc**: The TC of both domestic and overseas mines decreased, and smelters' production cuts in November gradually materialized. Domestic zinc social inventories decreased, and the market is expected to be short - term oscillating and medium - term bearish [8]. - **Lead**: The external and domestic inventories increased, and the market fundamentals weakened. The support level for SHFE lead is temporarily seen at 17,100 yuan/ton [9]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: SHFE nickel had narrow - range fluctuations, and the market trading was dull. The inventory of pure nickel and nickel - iron increased, and nickel prices are expected to be weak [10]. - **Tin**: Overnight, LME tin rose first and then fell, and SHFE tin opened high and closed low. The resumption of production in low - grade mines and the efficiency of Indonesia's production capacity rectification are the keys to deepening the tight supply. Hold short positions with a stop - loss of 295,000 yuan [11]. - **Rare Earths**: No relevant information in this report. Chemicals - **Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene**: The two - olefin futures continued to decline, with a divergence between short - term futures and spot prices. The supply pressure of plastic and polypropylene is difficult to alleviate, and the long - term trend is bearish [28]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: The cost support for PVC weakened, and it continued to decline. The demand for PVC exports to India improved, but the overall demand boost was limited. Caustic soda is in a downward trend [29]. - **PX & PTA**: Oil prices fell, but PX was strong, supporting PTA prices. PTA's profitability was poor, and the number of device overhauls increased. The terminal demand for PTA weakened [30]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The weekly output of ethylene glycol increased slightly, and port inventories continued to rise significantly. The supply pressure is large, and the medium - term demand is weak [31]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber has no new investment pressure, but the demand is expected to weaken. Bottle - chip demand is fading, and there is long - term over - capacity pressure [32]. - **Glass**: Glass continued to decline. The inventory pressure in the middle - stream is high, and the profit is narrowing. The follow - up may fluctuate with the cost side [33]. - **20 - Rubber & Natural Rubber & Butadiene Rubber**: The international crude oil price fell sharply, and the price of Thai raw materials rose. The demand is slowly weakening, and the supply of natural rubber is decreasing while that of synthetic rubber is increasing [34]. - **Soda Ash**: The cost side of soda ash moved down, and it continued to decline. The industry inventory decreased slightly. The long - term supply is expected to be in excess [35]. Agriculture - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The night - session of the main contract of Dalian soybean meal futures followed the decline of U.S. soybeans. The South American soybean planting progress is slow, and the domestic soybean supply is sufficient while the crushing profit is poor [36]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Overnight, U.S. soybean oil fell. The policy change may narrow the price difference between global vegetable oils and U.S. domestic vegetable oils. Palm oil may have a phased bottom [37]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The focus of the rapeseed market is on the supply side. The impact of Australian rapeseed on the supply side is mainly on the March contract and far - month contracts. The short - term strategy is bearish [38]. - **Soybean No.1**: The price of the main contract of soybean No.1 futures fell rapidly from a high level. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans decreased, and imported soybeans may be strong - oscillating in the short term [39]. - **Corn**: The night - session of Dalian corn futures was weak - oscillating. The new corn supply in Northeast China increased less, and farmers were more reluctant to sell. The downstream inventory is low, and the 01 contract may continue to correct [40]. - **Livestock & Poultry**: - **Pig**: The pig futures were weak - oscillating, and the spot price rebounded slightly. The pig price may have a second bottoming in the first half of next year [41]. - **Chicken & Eggs**: The egg spot price continued to fall, and the market may be weak in the short term. Hold short positions in near - month contracts [42]. - **Cotton**: U.S. cotton fell back, waiting for the weekly export data. The domestic Xinjiang cotton purchase is basically over, and the new cotton listing brings pressure to the market. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be range - oscillating [43]. - **Sugar**: Overnight, U.S. sugar was oscillating. India and Thailand are gradually starting to crush sugar, and the domestic market's focus is on the new - season output forecast [43]. - **Apple**: The futures price of apples was oscillating at a high level. The spot price of cold - stored apples is strong, but there may be inventory pressure in the far - month contracts [44]. - **Timber**: The futures price of timber was oscillating. The supply is expected to be stable, and the demand supports the price. The low inventory provides strong support [45]. - **Paper Pulp**: The paper pulp futures continued to fall. The port inventory increased, and the downstream procurement willingness was average. The price may continue to correct [46]. Others - **Shipping**: The market has digested the expected price increase of container shipping in early December. The 12 - contract is relatively resistant to decline, and the far - month contracts are expected to be low - level oscillating [20]. - **Financial Futures**: - **Stock Index Futures**: A - shares were boosted by the rise of heavy - weight sectors, and the performance of futures contracts was differentiated. The short - term stock market should adopt a relatively defensive strategy [47]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The market risk preference change may bring new opportunities [48].

Group 1: Market Overview - Global asset performance this week shows commodities leading with a 1.67% increase, followed by stocks at 0.41%, while bonds fell by 0.11% and REITs dropped by 1.04% [3] - European stock markets rebounded, with the STOXX index up 1.77% and the French CAC40 rising 2.77%, while the US stock market remained volatile [4] - Emerging markets saw mixed results, with Brazil's IBOVESPA index hitting a record high with a 2.39% increase, while China's A-shares faced a decline of 1.08% [4] Group 2: Commodity Insights - Energy and metal prices increased, with Brent crude oil rising 1.19% to $64.39 per barrel and gold prices up 2.07% to $4,084.06 per ounce [5][10] - The US commercial crude oil inventory rose significantly by 6.41 million barrels, indicating a low inventory level compared to the past five years [9] - OPEC and other agencies have raised their 2025 global oil supply forecasts, predicting an increase in production [8] Group 3: Economic and Policy Developments - The US government shutdown has ended, with a temporary funding bill signed to keep operations running until January 30, 2026, but the shutdown is expected to reduce Q4 GDP by 1.5% [6] - Federal Reserve officials expressed hawkish views, with market expectations for a rate cut in December dropping from 66.2% to 43.2% [6] - The recent increase in mortgage delinquencies and stock market volatility may support the case for a rate cut in December [7] Group 4: REITs and Real Estate - The global REITs index fell by 0.83%, with healthcare and office sectors showing better performance compared to retail and industrial sectors [11] - US REITs reported better-than-expected revenue and profit growth for Q3, particularly in the office sector [12] - The current low-interest-rate environment is favorable for REITs, which possess both equity and bond characteristics [12] Group 5: Hong Kong Market Analysis - The Hong Kong stock market experienced fluctuations, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.92% and the technology index declining by 1.80% [13] - Despite the index performance, there was active trading with a single-day turnover of HKD 209.6 billion, indicating investor confidence [14] - High-dividend assets are favored, with the Hang Seng high-dividend index showing a yield of 6%, significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield [14]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights ongoing concerns about oil demand, leading to a decline in oil prices despite OPEC+'s decision to pause production increases starting January 2026 [4][5] - As of November 7, Brent and WTI crude oil prices were reported at $63.70 and $59.84 per barrel, reflecting a decrease of 1.4% and 1.7% respectively from the previous week [4] - OPEC+ announced a production increase of 137,000 barrels per day in December, but will pause further increases in early 2026 due to low demand expectations and rising inventory risks [5] Group 2 - The current oil market faces an oversupply situation, and OPEC+'s decision to slow production increases is expected to mitigate this risk [6] - The IEA forecasts a growth in global oil demand of 700,000 barrels per day in 2026, while supply is expected to increase by 2.4 million barrels per day, with both OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ contributing equally [6] - Geopolitical risks, particularly the intensification of sanctions against Russia, are likely to provide a price premium for oil due to ongoing conflicts and policy changes [7] Group 3 - The "Big Three" oil companies in China are focusing on increasing reserves and production while managing costs effectively to navigate the new cycle of oil price volatility [8] - China National Petroleum Corporation, Sinopec, and CNOOC have set production growth targets of 1.6%, 1.5%, and 5.9% respectively for 2025, indicating a commitment to long-term growth despite external uncertainties [8] - The companies are also transitioning their refining businesses to lower-cost operations and enhancing their chemical segments to increase the proportion of high-value products [8]

Group 1: Market Trends - The market is currently exhibiting a small-cap style, with valuation factors yielding a positive return of 0.40%, while market capitalization factors have negative returns of -0.72% and -0.40% respectively [4] - Momentum and Beta factors also showed negative returns of -0.79% and -0.43%, indicating a reversal effect in the market [4] - The large transaction portfolio achieved a positive excess return of 1.08% relative to the CSI All Share Index [4] Group 2: Fixed Income - The secondary market for publicly listed REITs in China has shown a downward trend, with the weighted REITs index closing at 182.3 and a weekly return of -0.48% [5] - In comparison to other major asset classes, the return rates ranked from high to low are: convertible bonds, crude oil, A-shares, pure bonds, gold, REITs, and US stocks [5] - Credit bonds issued totaled 334, with a total issuance scale of 363.4 billion yuan, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 7.66% [5] - Industrial bonds accounted for 162 issues, with an issuance scale of 176.9 billion yuan, marking a week-on-week increase of 5.36% [5] Group 3: Oil and Chemical Industry - OPEC+ announced a production increase of 137,000 barrels per day in December, while suspending production increases from January to March 2026, which is expected to alleviate concerns over oil supply [6] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict and increased sanctions on Russia, are likely to provide a risk premium for oil prices [6] Group 4: Basic Chemicals - Strong demand for energy storage and power batteries is tightening the supply-demand situation for iron phosphate, leading to improved prices and profitability for phosphate chemical companies [6] - Limited new capacity for phosphate rock in the short to medium term is expected to maintain high prices for high-grade phosphate rock, benefiting leading companies in the industry [6] Group 5: Semiconductor Industry - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 635 million USD, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.2%, driven by increased wafer shipments and ASP growth [7] - The revenue from 8-inch wafers was 259 million USD, showing a year-on-year decrease of 1.6% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.4%, while 12-inch wafers generated 376 million USD, with a year-on-year increase of 43% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.8% [7] Group 6: Healthcare Industry - The company's shareholder return plan has strengthened confidence, further solidifying its position as an industry leader [8] - The "Double Beauty + Double Health" business model has effectively built a high-quality membership system, while the acquisition of the second-largest brand in the industry, Nair, has improved its net profit margin from 6.5% to 10.4% in the first half of 2025 [8]

Core Insights - The continuous decline in gold prices is primarily driven by the strengthening of the US dollar and a decrease in geopolitical risk premiums, alongside technical selling pressures in the market [1][2][4]. Group 1: Key Drivers of Gold Price Decline - Strengthening of US Dollar: The Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cycle is nearing its end, with rates remaining at 5.25%. The actual yield on US Treasury bonds has surpassed 2.5%, leading to a 15-year high in the opportunity cost of holding gold [1]. - Global Capital Flow Back to the US: The US stock market, particularly in technology sectors like AI and quantum computing, has attracted significant capital, with net inflows reaching $42 billion in October, reducing the demand for gold as a safe haven [1]. - Decrease in Geopolitical Risk Premium: The establishment of a ceasefire in the Middle East and the resumption of negotiations in the Russia-Ukraine conflict have led to a drop in the VIX index to 12.3, the lowest in nearly two years, indicating a significant recovery in market risk appetite [2]. - Sharp Decline in Central Bank Gold Purchases: Global official gold purchases in Q3 fell by 37% year-on-year, with the People's Bank of China halting its accumulation for two consecutive months [3]. Group 2: Technical Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Key Support Levels Breached: The current price of London gold has fallen below $1,750 per ounce, breaking the 200-week moving average, which triggered algorithmic selling from quantitative funds, resulting in a single-day sell-off of 42 tons [4]. - Significant Reduction in ETF Holdings: The largest gold ETF, GLD, has seen its holdings drop to 810 tons, a 22% decrease from its peak in 2024 [5]. Group 3: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historical Price Correction Analysis: The current decline is compared to past significant corrections, with the maximum drop projected at 32% over 14 months due to a combination of a strong dollar and easing geopolitical tensions [7]. - Key Observations for Future Price Movements: The $1,680-$1,700 range is identified as a critical support level, with potential supply contractions if breached [7]. Group 4: Investment Strategy Recommendations - Conservative Strategy: Suggests pausing physical gold purchases and waiting for prices to drop to around 380 CNY per gram, while also recommending a combination of US Treasury bonds and gold options for hedging [9]. - Aggressive Strategy: Recommends dollar-cost averaging into gold mining ETFs, particularly GDXJ, which is currently at a historical low price-to-book ratio, and taking advantage of the gold-silver ratio [9]. - High-Risk Areas: Cautions against leveraged gold futures and certain DeFi projects tied to gold, highlighting the risks associated with insufficient collateral [9]. Group 5: Future Warning Signals - Potential Policy Shifts: An earlier-than-expected interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve or increased stimulus measures in China could positively impact gold prices [12]. - Black Swan Risks: Uncertainties surrounding the US elections and potential escalations in semiconductor supply chain conflicts in East Asia could serve as significant risk factors [12].

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of China's special port service fee for U.S. vessels has led to a significant reduction in U.S.-flagged shipping operations in Chinese ports, while the overall capacity for U.S. routes remains stable through alternative measures like transshipment and restructuring [1][2]. Port Operations - Since October 14, the operational situation at major ports, such as Nansha Port, has remained stable, with no U.S.-owned shipping companies conducting business [2] - The Guangzhou Port, a key gateway in South China, continues to maintain high cargo and container throughput despite the new fee [2] - The only reported instance of a special port service fee being charged involved the U.S. Matson Navigation Company's "Manukai" container ship, which allegedly incurred a fee of 4.4584 million yuan during its stay at Ningbo [2] Shipping Response - Shipping companies have quickly adapted to the new regulations, with Maersk and other firms implementing transshipment measures to avoid docking at Chinese ports with U.S.-flagged vessels [4] - Pacific Shipping is restructuring its operations by relocating half of its bulk carrier fleet to Singapore and changing the flag of its vessels to avoid the special port service fee [4][5] Market Dynamics - The shipping market, particularly for bulk commodities, is expected to require time to adjust, but signs of stabilization are emerging [7] - As of the week of October 23, the ultra-large tanker market remains cautious, with both charterers and shipowners adopting a wait-and-see approach [7] - The overall supply of vessels remains sufficient, and there is no structural shortage, allowing charterers to control shipping schedules [7] Future Outlook - Short-term adjustments in the shipping market are anticipated, but long-term positive impacts are expected as companies seek regulatory clarifications and aim to minimize operational costs [7] - There is potential for non-U.S. shipowners to gain a premium in the mid-term, particularly those with Chinese backgrounds, due to resource supply chain security considerations [8] - Ongoing U.S.-China trade discussions in Kuala Lumpur may address maritime logistics and shipbuilding industry concerns, with preliminary agreements being formed [8]

Group 1: Shipping Industry - The SCFIS European route index increased by 10.52% to 1140.38 points, driven by severe congestion at European ports and delays in shipping schedules [1] - Demand is boosted by the pre-Christmas shipping peak and announcements of rate increases by shipping companies in November [1] - Uncertainty in supply due to COSCO and MSC suspending or delaying certain routes, with multiple vessels pending in December [1] Group 2: Oil Market - New sanctions by the US and EU against Russia have led to a short-term rebound in oil prices, raising concerns about supply constraints [1] - US and product oil inventories are generally declining, while the number of active drilling rigs has increased only slightly, indicating limited production growth [1] - OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers plan to increase output, with warnings of a potential surplus of 4 million barrels per day next year [1] Group 3: Fuel Oil - Sanctions against Russia have strengthened the cost support logic for fuel oil, with expectations of a decline in high-sulfur fuel oil exports from Russia [1] - Increased downstream shipping activities post-holiday are expected to improve short-term procurement demand [1] - There is a lack of significant supply contraction despite high inventories of high-sulfur fuel oil and stable inflows from Russia [1] Group 4: Lithium Carbonate - Production of cathode materials is on the rise, driven by pre-released demand for new energy vehicles [1] - Weekly visible inventory continues to decrease, with stable growth in new energy vehicle production and sales [1] - Global lithium resources are still in an expansion cycle, with new production lines coming online [1] Group 5: Coking Coal - Stricter environmental and safety inspection policies are causing ongoing disruptions in coal supply [1] - Most coal mines in Shanxi are at low inventory levels, while domestic steel mills are operating at high capacity [1] - Expectations for a second round of price increases for coke are likely to materialize soon [1] Group 6: Egg Market - Increased replenishment activity from downstream traders and expectations of supply improvements due to deep losses in breeding operations [2] - Seasonal temperature drops are improving storage conditions for eggs, leading to increased holding sentiment among producers [2] - The theoretical inventory of laying hens remains high, raising concerns about long-term demand growth [2] Group 7: Precious Metals - Overcrowding in long positions and a temporary easing of risk aversion have impacted the precious metals market [2] - The end of the traditional gold buying season in India has contributed to a decline in ETF holdings [2] - Ongoing expectations for Fed rate cuts and potential monetary easing cycles in major economies could influence gold prices [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term balanced state with poor operability on the market [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆, also in a short - term balanced state with poor operability [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆, in a short - term balanced state with poor operability [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, in a short - term balanced state with poor operability [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall energy market is facing different supply - demand situations and price trends. Crude oil may enter a weakly oscillating phase. Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil show different supply - demand characteristics in the short and medium terms. Asphalt maintains a tight balance, and liquefied petroleum gas has certain inventory and price trends [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - Since September, the global oil inventory accumulation speed has accelerated further, with a 1.5% increase in inventory since the fourth quarter. The mid - term trend of the crude oil market is still under pressure, but the short - term downward momentum is weakening, and the market may turn to a weakly oscillating state [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - Short - term fuel oil prices follow the cost side with a weakly oscillating downward trend. High - sulfur fuel oil has short - term price support but faces increasing supply pressure in the medium term. Low - sulfur fuel oil maintains a supply - demand weak situation. Strategies include shorting high - sulfur cracking spreads and expanding the high - low sulfur spread [2] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract oscillates narrowly. The weekly asphalt operating rate declines, demand is weaker than expected in October, and the overall commercial inventory decreases slightly. The asphalt market maintains a tight balance and is pressured by the weak cost side [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The LPG main contract continues to oscillate narrowly, with the far - month contract under pressure. Supply increases slightly this week, chemical demand grows, and inventory at refineries and ports decreases. The basis narrows to near the flat - water position [4]