Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Long-term bullish on stock indices, recommended to buy on dips; hold a neutral stance on government bonds [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Adopt a range trading strategy for coking coal and rebar; sell call options for glass [1][7][8] - **Non-ferrous Metals**: Cautiously hold long positions on copper on dips without chasing highs; wait for price pullbacks to go long on aluminum; either hold a wait-and-see stance or go short on nickel on rallies; use a range trading strategy for tin, gold, and silver [1][11][12] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are expected to trade in a range; polyolefins are expected to trade in a wide range; take a short position on the 01 contract of soda ash [1][20][22][23] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade with a slight upward bias; PTA is expected to trade in a range; apples are expected to trade with a slight upward bias; red dates are expected to trade in a range [1][35][36] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Go short on hogs and eggs on rallies; corn is expected to trade with a downward bias; soybean meal is expected to rebound from a low level; oils are expected to experience a high-level adjustment with palm oil being weak and soybean oil being strong [1][39][40][46] Core Views - The report provides investment strategies and market outlooks for various futures products based on factors such as supply and demand, cost, macroeconomic policies, and international trade relations [1][5][7] - It emphasizes the importance of considering multiple factors and market uncertainties when making investment decisions, and provides specific price ranges and trading strategies for different products [11][20][21] Summary by Industry Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: The market is expected to trade with a slight upward bias in the medium to long term. The recent market has seen an increase in trading volume, with sectors such as new energy and non-ferrous metals performing strongly. Positive factors such as Sino-US talks and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations may support the upward movement of stock indices [5] - **Government Bonds**: The market is expected to trade in a range. Although the central bank will resume open market bond trading, the improving market risk appetite may limit the upward potential of government bonds [5] Black Building Materials - **Double Coking (Coking Coal and Coke)**: The market is expected to trade in a range. The recent price increase is mainly driven by the strengthening of upstream coking coal prices, and the short-term supply shortage is the core factor supporting the strong operation of coal prices [7] - **Rebar**: The market is expected to trade in a range. The futures price has strengthened recently, and the low valuation and improving market sentiment may limit the downward space of steel prices. It is recommended to go long on the RB2601 contract on dips [7] - **Glass**: It is recommended to sell call options. The recent fundamental situation has continued to deteriorate, and the lack of macro policy expectations may make it difficult for the price to rise. It is expected that the price will be more likely to fall than rise [8][9] Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The market is expected to trade at a high level. The recent strong rise in copper prices is driven by factors such as supply shortage concerns and optimistic trade prospects. However, the high price may suppress downstream demand, and the price is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend in the near term [11][12] - **Aluminum**: The market is expected to trade at a high level. The recent decline in electrolytic aluminum production capacity and the positive signals from Sino-US and overseas economic policies may support the price. It is recommended to take profit on long positions on rallies and pay attention to tariff developments and market sentiment [13] - **Nickel**: The market is expected to trade in a range. The new RKAB policy in Indonesia may bring some uncertainties to the supply of nickel ore, and the medium to long-term supply surplus may continue. It is recommended to hold a wait-and-see stance or go short on rallies [16] - **Tin**: The market is expected to trade in a range. The supply of tin ore is expected to improve in the fourth quarter, but the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to use a range trading strategy and pay attention to the supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [17][18] - **Silver and Gold**: The market is expected to trade in a range. The recent decline in prices is due to factors such as the improvement of the US government shutdown situation and the divergence in the market's expectations for interest rate cuts. However, the expected interest rate cuts and safe-haven sentiment may support the prices in the medium term [18][19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The market is expected to trade in a range. The high supply and weak domestic demand, along with the uncertain export sustainability, may keep the PVC market in a weak position. However, the low valuation and potential policy and cost disturbances may limit the downward space [20][21] - **Caustic Soda**: The market is expected to trade with a downward bias. The short-term supply pressure may be relieved by new maintenance, but the future increase in production and the weak demand may lead to a downward trend in prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the downstream stocking rhythm and export situation [22][23] - **Styrene**: The market is expected to trade in a range. The high inventory and limited demand may lead to a weak supply-demand situation. It is recommended to pay attention to factors such as oil prices, pure benzene production and imports, and macro data and policies [23][24] - **Rubber**: The market is expected to trade in a range. The strong raw material prices and positive macro sentiment may support the price, but the high inventory may limit the upward space. It is recommended to pay attention to factors such as inventory changes and downstream demand [25] - **Urea**: The market is expected to trade in a range. The increase in maintenance devices and the improvement in agricultural and industrial demand may support the price, but the high inventory may limit the upward space. It is recommended to pay attention to factors such as supply and demand changes and export situations [26][27] - **Methanol**: The market is expected to trade in a range. The decrease in production capacity utilization and the increase in demand from the methanol-to-olefins industry may support the price, but the high inventory may limit the upward space. It is recommended to pay attention to factors such as macro changes, device maintenance, and coal prices [28][29] - **Polyolefins**: The market is expected to trade with a downward bias. The expected increase in supply and the slow recovery of demand may lead to a downward trend in prices. It is recommended to pay attention to factors such as downstream demand, Fed interest rate cuts, and Sino-US trade relations [29][30] - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to take a short position on the 01 contract. The supply surplus and weak demand may lead to a downward trend in prices. It is recommended to pay attention to factors such as supply and demand changes and cost pressures [33][34] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The market is expected to trade with a slight upward bias. The increase in global cotton production and consumption, along with the progress of Sino-US trade negotiations, may support the price [35] - **PTA**: The market is expected to trade in a range. The weak supply-demand situation and the high inventory may lead to a downward trend in prices. It is recommended to pay attention to factors such as oil prices and supply and demand changes [35][36] - **Apples**: The market is expected to trade with a slight upward bias. The stable market situation in the western regions and the increase in demand may support the price. It is recommended to pay attention to factors such as production and quality changes [36] - **Red Dates**: The market is expected to trade in a range. The stable market price and the expected increase in supply may lead to a stable price trend. It is recommended to pay attention to factors such as new-season listing and price changes [37][38] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Hogs**: The market is expected to face pressure on the upside. The current supply is relatively loose, and the intervention of secondary fattening may shift the supply pressure to the future. It is recommended to take a short position on the 01, 03, and 05 contracts in the medium term and pay attention to the supply and demand changes and capacity reduction [39][40] - **Eggs**: The market is expected to face pressure on the upside. The current supply is relatively large, and the seasonal decline in demand may limit the upward space of egg prices. It is recommended to take a short position on the 12 contract on rallies and hold a wait-and-see stance on the 01 contract [41][42] - **Corn**: The market is expected to trade with a downward bias. The increase in new grain supply and the weak demand may lead to a downward trend in prices. It is recommended to take a short position on the 01 contract on rallies and pay attention to factors such as policy and weather changes [43][44] - **Soybean Meal**: The market is expected to rebound from a low level. The increase in soybean imports and the improvement in demand may support the price. It is recommended to hold long positions on the M2601 contract and pay attention to the Sino-US trade relations and soybean procurement [46][47] - **Oils**: The market is expected to experience a high-level adjustment. The short-term pressure on the price is due to factors such as the increase in palm oil production and the weak demand. However, the potential supply shortage and the positive signals from Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations may support the price in the medium term. It is recommended to pay attention to the support levels of the 01 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils and the spread between soybean and palm oils [48][49][54]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, but Powell said a December rate cut is not guaranteed, strengthening the US dollar index and cooling global risk appetite. Domestically, economic growth has accelerated, and the upcoming meeting between Chinese and US leaders has boosted market optimism. Policy stimulus expectations have increased, enhancing short - term macro - upward drivers. Focus on China - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policies [3]. - Different asset classes have different trends: stocks are short - term oscillating and strengthening; bonds are short - term oscillating; commodities have different trends for different sectors [3]. Summary by Directory Macro - finance - **Stocks**: Driven by sectors such as energy metals, industrial metals, and photovoltaic equipment, the domestic stock market rose significantly. With accelerated economic growth, the upcoming Sino - US leaders' meeting, and enhanced policy stimulus expectations, short - term macro - upward drivers have increased. Short - term cautious buying is recommended [4]. - **Precious Metals**: After the Fed's rate cut, the US dollar strengthened, and precious metals weakened. In the short term, they are oscillating and correcting, but the medium - to - long - term upward trend remains. Short - term long - position reduction and mid - to - long - term buying on dips are advised [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel spot and futures markets continued to rebound. Demand improved marginally, inventories decreased, and supply is expected to decline due to compressed profits and environmental restrictions. The market is mainly driven by macro factors, and prices are likely to be oscillating and strengthening [5]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices continued to be strong due to improved macro expectations and a significant drop in arrivals. Port inventories decreased. Steel mill profits are compressed, and iron - water production may decline further. Supply has some changes, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [7]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: Spot prices were flat, and futures prices rebounded slightly. Demand decreased due to a slight decline in steel production. Supply of silicon manganese increased slightly. Prices are expected to oscillate in the range [8]. Chemicals - **Soda Ash**: The main contract oscillated. Supply increased in the short term, and there are capacity expansion plans in the fourth quarter. Demand increased slightly. With supply pressure, a bearish view is taken [9]. - **Glass**: The main contract oscillated. Supply was stable, demand in the peak season was weak, and inventory was relatively high. Supported by anti - involution policies, it is expected to be oscillating and strengthening in the short term [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: Driven by supply concerns, copper prices reached a record high. High US inventories may limit future imports. A mine shutdown in Indonesia tightened the global supply, but beware of the restart of a Panama mine. Domestic de - stocking was less than expected, and prices are expected to remain strong [10]. - **Aluminum**: The price of Shanghai aluminum rose significantly, with technical support at 21100. Fundamentals are not good, but a decline in London inventories may support prices in the short term [11]. - **Tin**: After the end of a large - scale smelter's maintenance in Yunnan, the smelting start - up rate increased significantly. However, the ore supply is tight, and prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract rose. Supply and demand both increased, and the price is expected to be oscillating and strengthening in the short term, but beware of hedging pressure [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract rose. Demand was stable, and with cost support, it is expected to be oscillating and strengthening [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract rose. Supply is high, demand is low, and it is waiting for policy support and attention to spot price support [13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market evaluated the impact of a large drop in US inventories and sanctions on Russian oil producers. The meeting between Chinese and US leaders raised expectations for trade agreements, and oil prices rebounded slightly [15]. - **Asphalt**: Prices rebounded with oil prices and then stabilized. With the approaching off - season, inventory reduction will slow down. Future price trends depend on the rebound space of oil prices [15]. - **PX**: As oil prices rose, PX followed suit. It is in a tight supply situation but has high short - selling risks [16]. - **PTA**: The market is waiting for the results of a symposium. Short - term capital is leaving, and the inventory accumulation rate has slowed down. It will remain oscillating in the short term [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventories decreased slightly, and prices rose slightly with oil prices. It will continue to oscillate in the near term [16]. - **Short - fiber**: Prices rebounded slightly but are expected to remain weakly oscillating. Future upward space depends on terminal orders [17]. - **Methanol**: Some inland markets are weak, and port prices are oscillating at a low level. Supply pressure will increase, and demand is weak. Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [17]. - **PP**: Market quotations oscillated. Supply is sufficient, but demand has improved marginally. Prices may be repaired in the short term [19]. - **LLDPE**: Prices fluctuated slightly. Supply is expected to increase, and demand may improve slightly. Prices may be repaired in the short term, but the supply - surplus situation remains [19]. - **Urea**: The domestic market showed a slight downward trend. Supply is becoming more abundant, and demand is stable. Prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [20]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: CBOT soybean prices fell slightly. US soybean exports have decreased significantly this year. The market is optimistic about trade negotiations, but there are still system risks [21]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: Domestic soybean supply is abundant, and soybean meal supply is sufficient. If Sino - US agricultural trade relations improve, soybean meal inventory accumulation may limit upward price space [21]. - **Palm Oil**: In Malaysia, inventory accumulation pressure has increased since October, and the implementation of Indonesia's B50 plan is uncertain. After continuous price drops, it has entered a technically oversold stage [22]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: Soybean oil supply is abundant, and it is in the consumption peak season. Rapeseed oil inventory is decreasing, but there are factors suppressing prices [23]. - **Corn**: North - port corn prices continued to decline. The market price is close to the cost line, and farmers' reluctance to sell may slow down the decline [23]. - **Hogs**: The average price of live hogs decreased slightly. Short - term prices have stabilized, but there is still a large supply - demand mismatch pressure in November [23].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - For the stock index, the weekend Sino-US economic and trade talks had a positive outcome. The market should focus on the results of the month - end Sino - US leaders' meeting. After the previous continuous rise, the hot sectors rotated rapidly, with technology remaining the market's main line. In the long - term, the policy supports the capital market, and the mid - to - long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. - For bonds, in the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market may improve. The market is in a situation where weak domestic demand recovery and improving inflation expectations coexist, and the bond market is expected to oscillate and recover [7]. - For precious metals, the decline in gold and silver prices is a "correction in the upward trend" rather than a "trend reversal". It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy and buy on dips [10]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metal prices are expected to be strong due to factors such as Sino - US trade negotiation progress, supply disruptions, and low inventory [13][15]. - For black building materials, the steel price has a long - term upward logic, but the short - term demand is weak. The iron ore price will oscillate. The black sector is not pessimistic, and it is more cost - effective to look for rebound opportunities [32][34][41]. - For energy and chemicals, different products have different trends. Some are recommended to wait and see, and some are expected to stop falling or rise [54][60]. - For agricultural products, different products have different outlooks. For example, the short - term pig price may rebound, but the medium - term is still under pressure; the sugar price is expected to decline, etc. [76][85]. Summary by Category Macro - financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: The central bank explores liquidity - providing mechanisms for non - bank institutions; the CSRC optimizes the QFII system and strengthens the protection of small and medium - sized investors [2]. - **Base Ratio**: IF, IC, IM, and IH have different base ratios for different contract periods [3]. - **Strategy**: Focus on the Sino - US leaders' meeting. The technology sector is the main line, and the mid - to - long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Monday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different price changes. The national industrial enterprise profits increased in September. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations and had a net investment [5]. - **Strategy**: The economic growth in the third quarter slightly exceeded expectations. The central bank maintains a supportive attitude towards funds. The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover in the fourth quarter [7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver declined. The market's confidence in global central banks' short - term gold purchases weakened. The US 9 - month CPI data was lower than expected [8][9]. - **Strategy**: The decline in gold and silver prices is a correction. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy and buy on dips [10]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The copper price continued to rise. The LME copper inventory decreased, and the domestic social inventory increased slightly. The downstream procurement sentiment was weak [12]. - **Strategy**: Due to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and expected Fed rate cuts, and the tight supply of copper raw materials, the copper price is expected to continue to oscillate strongly [13]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The aluminum price rose. The domestic inventory increased, and the downstream procurement willingness was weak. The LME aluminum inventory decreased [14]. - **Strategy**: Supply disruptions overseas and low domestic inventory are expected to drive the aluminum price to rise further [15]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The zinc price rose slightly. The zinc ore inventory increased slightly, and the domestic zinc ingot inventory accumulation rate slowed down [16]. - **Strategy**: The zinc price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term due to the positive market atmosphere and structural risks [17]. Lead - **Market Information**: The lead price fell slightly. The lead ore inventory decreased, and the lead ingot social and factory inventories continued to decline [18]. - **Strategy**: The lead price is expected to run strongly in the short term due to positive market atmosphere and structural risks [18]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The nickel price oscillated at a low level. The nickel ore price was stable and slightly strong, and the nickel iron price was weak [19]. - **Strategy**: The short - term suggestion is to wait and see. If the nickel price drops enough, consider building long positions [20]. Tin - **Market Information**: The tin price rose. The supply was still tight due to the slow recovery of the Myanmar tin mine. The demand in emerging fields provided support, and the inventory decreased [22]. - **Strategy**: The tin price is expected to rise in the short term due to the tight supply - demand balance and improving market sentiment. It is recommended to buy on dips [22]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The carbonate lithium price rose. The MMLC index and the LC2601 contract price increased [23]. - **Strategy**: The fundamental situation of carbonate lithium has improved, but pay attention to the pressure from hedging and supply elasticity. The reference range for the LC2601 contract is 79,400 - 83,200 yuan/ton [24]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina price rose. The domestic and overseas prices and inventory had different changes [25]. - **Strategy**: The short - term suggestion is to wait and see. The reference range for the AO2601 contract is 2700 - 3000 yuan/ton [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel price rose slightly. The social inventory increased, and the raw material prices were stable [27]. - **Strategy**: A steel mill's planned maintenance may relieve the inventory pressure, but the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The cast aluminum alloy price oscillated. The contract price rose slightly, and the inventory decreased [28]. - **Strategy**: The cost provides support, but the high warehouse receipts limit the upward space [29]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil rose. The registered warehouse receipts and positions decreased [31]. - **Strategy**: The steel price has a long - term upward logic, but the short - term demand is weak. Pay attention to Sino - US talks [32]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore price rose. The overseas shipment increased, the iron water production decreased, and the port inventory increased [33][34]. - **Strategy**: The iron ore price will oscillate due to weak fundamentals and positive macro - environment [34]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass price rose slightly, and the inventory increased. The soda ash price rose, and the inventory increased slightly [35][37]. - **Strategy**: The glass price is expected to oscillate widely, and the soda ash price is expected to consolidate narrowly [37][38]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose slightly. The prices are in the oscillation range [39]. - **Strategy**: The black sector is not pessimistic. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black sector's trend [40][41]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The industrial silicon price rose slightly, and the polysilicon price rose significantly. The supply and demand of both have different situations [42][44]. - **Strategy**: The industrial silicon price is expected to consolidate in the short term. The polysilicon price may improve in the future, but pay attention to the actual implementation [43][45]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price oscillated. The views of bulls and bears are different. The tire enterprise inventory is not high [48][49][50]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to gradually exit short - term long positions and wait and see. Consider partial hedging [52]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The crude oil and refined oil prices rose. The Chinese crude oil and refined oil inventories decreased [53]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and adopt a low - buy and high - sell strategy later [54]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The methanol price decreased slightly. The port inventory increased slowly, and the domestic start - up rate decreased [55]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see due to the uncertain import situation and high port inventory [55]. Urea - **Market Information**: The urea price in many places rose. The inventory increased slightly [56][57]. - **Strategy**: The supply and demand situation has improved slightly. It is recommended to wait and see or consider long positions on dips [57]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene decreased. The supply was wide, the inventory increased, and the demand decreased [58]. - **Strategy**: The benzene styrene price may stop falling temporarily due to high - level inventory reduction [60]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC price rose. The cost decreased, the start - up rate decreased slightly, and the inventory increased slightly [61]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply is strong and the demand is weak. It is recommended to consider short positions on rallies in the medium term [62]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol price rose. The supply was high, the inventory decreased, and the cost changed [63]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to consider short positions on rallies due to expected inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter [64]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA price rose. The supply increased slightly, the demand was stable, and the inventory increased slightly [65]. - **Strategy**: The short - term supply may accumulate slightly, and the demand is difficult to increase. Pay attention to the impact of the symposium [66]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The PX price rose. The load increased, the inventory increased, and the PXN decreased [67]. - **Strategy**: The PX price mainly follows the crude oil price. Pay attention to the impact of the symposium [68]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE price rose. The upstream start - up rate decreased, the inventory decreased, and the downstream start - up rate increased [69]. - **Strategy**: The PE price is expected to oscillate at a low level due to high - level inventory reduction and seasonal demand [70]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP price rose. The upstream start - up rate increased, the inventory decreased, and the downstream start - up rate increased [71][72]. - **Strategy**: The PP price is under pressure due to high inventory and supply - demand imbalance [73]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The pig price rose in many places. The supply may be limited, and the downstream acquisition enthusiasm is okay [75]. - **Strategy**: The short - term pig price may rebound, but the medium - term is still under pressure. It is recommended to establish anti - arbitrage positions and short on rallies [76]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The egg price was mostly stable. The supply was stable, and the market sales were average [77]. - **Strategy**: The spot price may rebound slightly, but the space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [78]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The CBOT soybean price rose. The domestic soybean and bean meal inventories are high, and the import cost may oscillate [79][80]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short on rallies due to high domestic inventory and sufficient global supply [81]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The Malaysian palm oil export and production data changed. The domestic oil price fell [82]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for the palm oil price and wait for clearer production signals [83]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The sugar price oscillated. The Brazilian sugar production is expected to increase, and the gasoline price decreased [84]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short on rallies in the fourth quarter due to expected global sugar production increase [85]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The cotton price oscillated. The new cotton purchase price rose slightly, and the downstream start - up rate was low [86]. - **Strategy**: The cotton price may have limited upward space due to weak fundamentals [87].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The short - term shock adjustment of stock indices is mainly affected by intensified overseas disturbances and adjustments in some high - position sectors. As unfavorable factors such as trade frictions gradually ease, stock indices are expected to return to the upward channel. With policy support and abundant macro - liquidity, even if short - term macro uncertainties increase, the adjustment space of stock indices is expected to be limited. It is recommended to take a long - term long position [8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Interest Rate and Bond Market - Interest rate products' closing prices and changes: DRO01 closed at 1.32 with a 0.52bp increase; DR007 at 1.41 with a 1.57bp decrease; GC001 at 1.40 with a 5.50bp decrease; GC007 at 1.57 with a 6.50bp increase; SHBOR 3M at 1.59 with no change; LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change; 1 - year treasury bond at 1.48 with a 0.25bp decrease; 5 - year treasury bond at 1.62 with a 0.82bp increase; 10 - year treasury bond at 1.85 with a 0.50bp increase; 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.02 with a 1.00bp increase [4] - Last week, the central bank conducted 8672 billion yuan of reverse repurchase and 1200 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit operations in the open market, with 7891 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturing, resulting in a net investment (including treasury cash) of 1981 billion yuan [4] - This week, 8672 billion yuan of reverse repurchase will mature in the central bank's open market, with 1890 billion, 1595 billion, 1382 billion, 2125 billion, and 1680 billion yuan maturing from Monday to Friday respectively. Also, 7000 billion yuan of MLF will mature on Monday and 5000 billion yuan of 182 - day outright reverse repurchase will mature on Wednesday [5] Stock Market - Stock index closing prices and changes: CSI 300 closed at 4661 with a 1.18% increase; SSE 50 at 3046 with a 0.62% increase; CSI 500 at 7259 with a 1.62% increase; CSI 1000 at 7419 with a 1.52% increase. Futures closing prices and changes: IF current - month contract at 4648 with a 1.2% increase; IH current - month contract at 3048 with a 0.8% increase; IC current - month contract at 7212 with a 1.7% increase; IM current - month contract at 7369 with a 1.7% increase [7] - Futures trading volume and position changes: IF trading volume was 116181 with a 9.4% decrease, and position was 255413 with a 3.5% decrease; IH trading volume was 58979 with a 2.2% decrease, and position was 95329 with a 1.4% increase; IC trading volume was 137728 with a 5.1% decrease, and position was 243604 with a 4.2% decrease; IM trading volume was 224453 with a 13.8% decrease, and position was 349089 with a 7.0% decrease [7] - Last week, CSI 300 rose 3.24% to 4660.7; SSE 50 rose 2.63% to 3045.8; CSI 500 rose 3.46% to 7258.5; CSI 1000 rose 3.25% to 7419.2. Shenwan primary industry indices generally rose, with communication (11.5%), electronics (8.5%), power equipment (4.9%), machinery and equipment (4.7%), and media (4.3%) leading the gains, while only agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (- 1.4%) and food and beverage (- 0.9%) declined. The daily trading volume of A - shares last week was 15749 billion, 17043 billion, 15180 billion, 15106 billion, and 17592 billion yuan respectively, and the average daily trading volume decreased by 3494.9 billion yuan compared with the previous week [7] Futures Premium and Discount Situation - IF premium rates for current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 3.70%, 3.75%, 3.06%, and 3.10% respectively; IH premium rates are - 1.19%, - 0.62%, - 0.35%, and - 0.30% respectively; IC premium rates are 9.04%, 9.19%, 9.20% respectively; IM premium rates are 9.47%, 11.05%, 11.58%, and 11.66% respectively. The values in parentheses are annualized premium and discount rates (green for premium, red for discount) [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The weekend Sino-US economic and trade talks had positive results, and the focus is on the outcome of the leaders' meeting at the end of the month. The technology sector remains the market's main line, and the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. - In the fourth quarter, the bond market's supply - demand pattern may improve, and it is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. - The decline in precious metal prices is a "correction in the upward trend." It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy and focus on the Fed's interest - rate meeting [10]. - For most metals in the non - ferrous metals sector, due to factors such as supply concerns, positive market sentiment, and structural risks, prices are expected to be strong in the short term [13][15][18][20]. - In the black building materials sector, steel prices may be weak in the short term but have long - term support; iron ore prices will fluctuate; glass and soda ash markets are weak; manganese silicon and ferrosilicon may be affected by policies and fundamentals; industrial silicon and polysilicon prices will fluctuate [35][38][39][40][44][49][51]. - In the energy and chemical sector, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended for short - term observation; oil prices are suggested to be traded in a range; methanol, urea, etc. are recommended for waiting and watching [57][59][61][63]. - In the agricultural products sector, the short - term prices of live pigs and eggs may rebound, while the prices of soybean meal, vegetable meal, and other products are expected to be weak, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [83][85][87]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - financial 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Market News**: Sino - US reached preliminary consensus on economic and trade issues; the government focuses on financial support for key industries; breakthroughs in the photoresist field; some storage wafer factories suspended product quotations [2]. - **Strategy**: The Sino - US economic and trade talks had positive results. The technology sector is the main line, and the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market News**: Bond prices fluctuated on Friday; Sino - US economic and trade consultations were held; US CPI data was lower than expected; the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations [5]. - **Strategy**: The economic growth in the third quarter slightly exceeded expectations. The bond market is expected to fluctuate in the fourth quarter, and pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - **Market News**: Precious metal prices declined due to the expected easing of overseas risks. US CPI data was lower than expected, and the market expected the Fed to cut interest rates [8][9]. - **Strategy**: The decline in precious metal prices is a correction. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy and focus on the Fed's interest - rate meeting [10]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals 3.2.1 Copper - **Market News**: Supply concerns and optimistic expectations for Sino - US economic and trade talks pushed up copper prices. LME and domestic inventories decreased [12]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US economic and trade talks made progress, and the Fed's meeting is expected to be dovish. Copper prices are expected to remain strong [13]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Market News**: Aluminum prices rebounded after a decline. Some overseas aluminum plants reduced production, and domestic and overseas inventories decreased [14]. - **Strategy**: Supply concerns and improved trade relations are expected to drive aluminum prices higher [15]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Market News**: Zinc prices were slightly up. Zinc ore inventories increased slightly, and domestic zinc ingot inventories increased slowly [16][17]. - **Strategy**: Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term due to supply - side risks and positive market sentiment [18]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Market News**: Lead prices were slightly up. Lead ore inventories decreased, and lead ingot inventories continued to decline [19]. - **Strategy**: Lead prices are expected to be strong in the short term due to supply - side changes and positive market sentiment [20]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Market News**: Nickel prices fluctuated at a low level. Nickel ore prices were stable to strong, and nickel iron prices were weak [21]. - **Strategy**: Short - term observation is recommended. If nickel prices fall enough, long positions can be gradually established [22]. 3.2.6 Tin - **Market News**: Tin prices declined. Supply was tight, and demand from emerging fields provided support [23]. - **Strategy**: Tin prices are expected to rise in the short term due to tight supply - demand balance and improved demand in the peak season [24]. 3.2.7 Lithium Carbonate - **Market News**: Lithium carbonate prices increased. Downstream demand was strong, and inventories were expected to decline [25]. - **Strategy**: The fundamental situation has improved. Pay attention to supply - side changes and market sentiment [25]. 3.2.8 Alumina - **Market News**: Alumina prices declined. Ore prices were supported in the short term, and inventories continued to accumulate [26]. - **Strategy**: Short - term observation is recommended. Pay attention to supply - side policies and the Fed's monetary policy [27]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market News**: Stainless steel prices were up. Market sentiment improved, but demand support was weak [28]. - **Strategy**: Observe the market due to unresolved supply - demand contradictions and limited upward momentum [29]. 3.2.10 Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market News**: Cast aluminum alloy prices rose. Cost support was strong, but delivery pressure on near - month contracts was high [30]. - **Strategy**: The price increase may be limited due to high warehouse receipts [32]. 3.3 Black Building Materials 3.3.1 Steel - **Market News**: Steel prices declined. Rebar supply and demand increased, and hot - rolled coil supply decreased slightly while demand increased [34]. - **Strategy**: Steel prices may be weak in the short term but have long - term support [35]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Market News**: Iron ore prices declined. Overseas shipments increased, and iron water production decreased [36][37]. - **Strategy**: Iron ore prices will fluctuate due to weak fundamentals and macro - economic expectations [38]. 3.3.3 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market News**: Glass prices declined, and inventories increased; soda ash prices declined, and inventories increased slightly [39][40]. - **Strategy**: Glass prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, and soda ash prices will be weak [39][40]. 3.3.4 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market News**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices declined slightly. Prices were in a volatile range [41][43]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to policy changes and fundamentals. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips [44][45]. 3.3.5 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market News**: Industrial silicon prices declined, and supply pressure was high; polysilicon prices declined, and supply pressure may ease [46][50]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon prices will fluctuate, and polysilicon prices will show a wide - range shock [49][51]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals 3.4.1 Rubber - **Market News**: Rubber prices rose due to typhoons and stock market support. Bulls and bears have different views [53][54]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to close short - term long positions and observe. Consider partial hedging [57]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - **Market News**: Crude oil prices rose, and refined oil inventories decreased [58]. - **Strategy**: Oil prices are recommended to be traded in a range, and short - term observation is suggested [59]. 3.4.3 Methanol - **Market News**: Methanol prices declined. Import unloading was slow, and inventories increased slowly [60]. - **Strategy**: Observe the market due to potential supply - side disturbances and high inventories [61]. 3.4.4 Urea - **Market News**: Urea prices rose. Supply increased, and demand from compound fertilizers improved [62]. - **Strategy**: Observe the market and consider long - position opportunities at low prices [63]. 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market News**: Pure benzene prices declined, and styrene prices showed different trends in spot and futures [64]. - **Strategy**: Benzene prices may stop falling due to cost and inventory factors [65]. 3.4.6 PVC - **Market News**: PVC prices declined. Supply was high, and demand was weak [66][67]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short on rallies due to strong supply and weak demand [68]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: Ethylene glycol prices declined. Supply was high, and inventories increased [69]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short on rallies due to expected inventory accumulation [70]. 3.4.8 PTA - **Market News**: PTA prices rose slightly. Supply increased, and demand was stable [71]. - **Strategy**: Observe the market due to potential negative feedback risks [73]. 3.4.9 p - Xylene - **Market News**: p - Xylene prices rose. Supply was high, and demand from PTA was limited [74]. - **Strategy**: Observe the market as it mainly follows crude oil and has negative feedback risks [75]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - **Market News**: PE prices declined. Spot prices rose, and inventories decreased [76]. - **Strategy**: PE prices will maintain a low - level shock [77]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - **Market News**: PP prices declined. Supply pressure was high, and demand was weak [78][79]. - **Strategy**: PP prices will be under pressure due to supply - demand contradictions [80]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Live Pigs - **Market News**: Live pig prices rose. Supply pressure was high, and demand support was okay [82]. - **Strategy**: Short - term rebound is expected, and mid - term short - position opportunities can be considered [83]. 3.5.2 Eggs - **Market News**: Egg prices were strong. Supply was sufficient, and demand increased [84]. - **Strategy**: The spot price may rebound slightly, and the futures market is recommended for observation [85]. 3.5.3 Soybean Meal and Vegetable Meal - **Market News**: CBOT soybean prices declined, and domestic soybean meal prices were stable. International soybean supply is sufficient [86]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to sell on rallies due to high domestic inventory and stable international supply [87]. 3.5.4 Oils and Fats - **Market News**: Palm oil exports from Malaysia showed different trends, and production increased. Global soybean supply and demand changed [88]. - **Strategy**: Observe the market and wait for clear production signals [89]. 3.5.5 Sugar - **Market News**: Sugar prices fluctuated. Brazilian production is expected to increase, and gasoline prices were cut [91]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short on rallies in the fourth quarter [92]. 3.5.6 Cotton - **Market News**: Cotton prices fluctuated. New cotton purchase prices rose, but downstream demand was weak [93]. - **Strategy**: Cotton prices may have limited upward space due to weak fundamentals [94].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; neutral on government bonds, suggesting holding a wait - and - see stance [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Neutral on coking coal and rebar, suggesting range trading; neutral on glass, suggesting a wait - and - see stance [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Bullish on copper, suggesting buying on dips cautiously without chasing highs; bullish on aluminum, suggesting buying on dips after a pullback; neutral on nickel, suggesting a wait - and - see stance or shorting on rallies; neutral on tin, suggesting range trading; neutral on gold and silver, suggesting range trading [1][10][11][12][17][18][19][21] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Neutral on PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, suggesting a sideways movement; bearish on soda ash 01 contract, suggesting a short - selling strategy; neutral on polyolefins, suggesting a weak sideways movement [1][22][24][25][27][28][29][30] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Neutral on cotton and cotton yarn, suggesting a sideways movement; bearish on PTA, suggesting a weak sideways movement; bullish on apples and jujubes, suggesting a slightly bullish sideways movement [1][32][33][34][35] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Bearish on pigs and eggs, suggesting short - selling on rallies; neutral on corn, suggesting a weak sideways movement; neutral on soybean meal, suggesting a low - level sideways movement; bullish on oils, suggesting a limited correction [1][37][40][41][42][43] Core Views - The A - share market is affected by multiple factors. External uncertainties and internal profit - taking needs lead to a sideways movement. The stock indices are supported during important meetings, but there may be a risk of profit - taking after the meetings. The government bond market is affected by economic data and future policy expectations, and a wait - and - see stance is recommended [5] - The black building materials market is affected by supply and demand fundamentals. Coking coal and rebar are expected to trade in a range, while glass is facing weak fundamentals and a wait - and - see stance is recommended [7][8][9] - The non - ferrous metals market is affected by global trade tensions, supply disruptions, and demand expectations. Copper and aluminum are expected to maintain a strong position, while nickel and tin are expected to trade sideways [10][11][12][17][18] - The energy and chemicals market is affected by cost, supply, demand, and macro - policies. Most products are expected to trade sideways, while soda ash 01 contract is expected to decline [22][24][25][30] - The cotton textile industry chain is affected by global supply and demand and Sino - US relations. Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade sideways, while PTA is expected to decline slightly [32][33][34] - The agriculture and animal husbandry market is affected by supply and demand fundamentals and seasonal factors. Pigs and eggs are expected to decline, while corn, soybean meal, and oils are expected to trade sideways or have a limited correction [37][40][42][43] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: The A - share market is affected by external policy uncertainties and internal profit - taking needs. It is expected to trade sideways in the short term and is bullish in the medium to long term. Buying on dips is recommended [5] - **Government Bonds**: The government bond market is affected by economic data and future policy expectations. A wait - and - see stance is recommended [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Supply recovery is slow after the National Day holiday. It has multi - allocation value, and range trading is recommended [7] - **Rebar**: The futures price is undervalued, and the demand has recovered while the production has declined slightly. It is expected to trade sideways at a low level, and buying on dips near 3000 for RB2601 is recommended [8] - **Glass**: The market is facing weak fundamentals with rising inventory and weak demand. A wait - and - see stance is recommended [9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price is affected by global trade tensions and supply disruptions. It is expected to maintain a high - level sideways movement. Buying on dips cautiously without chasing highs is recommended [10][11] - **Aluminum**: The price is affected by ore prices, production capacity, and demand. It is expected to trade sideways at a high level. Buying on dips after a pullback is recommended [12] - **Nickel**: The supply is expected to be loose in the medium to long term. It is expected to trade sideways. A wait - and - see stance or shorting on rallies is recommended [17] - **Tin**: The supply is expected to improve, and the demand is weak. It is expected to trade sideways in the range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton. Range trading is recommended [18][19] - **Gold and Silver**: The prices are supported by interest - rate cut expectations and safe - haven sentiment. They are expected to trade sideways. Buying after a full correction is recommended [19][21] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The market is facing weak fundamentals with high inventory and uncertain export prospects. It is expected to trade sideways in the range of 4600 - 4800 [22][23] - **Caustic Soda**: The market is affected by supply and demand and macro - policies. It is expected to trade sideways with a slight downward trend, and the 01 contract should pay attention to the pressure at 2450 [24][25] - **Styrene**: The market is affected by cost and supply - demand imbalance. It is expected to trade sideways in the range of 6300 - 6700 [25][26][27] - **Rubber**: The supply provides some support, but the demand is limited. It is expected to trade sideways with a slight upward trend, and pay attention to the support at 15000 [27][28] - **Urea**: The supply is decreasing, and the demand is mixed. It is expected to trade sideways at the bottom in the range of 1550 - 1650 [28] - **Methanol**: The supply is recovering, and the demand is stable. The inventory is high, and the market is expected to be weak in the short term [29] - **Polyolefins**: The price is affected by cost, supply, and demand. It is expected to trade sideways with a weak trend. The L2601 contract should pay attention to the support at 6900, and the PP2601 contract should pay attention to the support at 6600 [29][30] - **Soda Ash**: The market is facing oversupply and weak demand. The 01 contract is recommended to be shorted [30][31] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global supply and demand are adjusted, and Sino - US relations are uncertain. It is expected to trade sideways [32][33] - **PTA**: The price is affected by oil prices and supply - demand fundamentals. It is expected to trade sideways in the range of 4350 - 4600 [33][34] - **Apples**: The quality is declining, and the delivery cost is expected to rise. It is expected to trade sideways with a slightly bullish trend [34][35] - **Jujubes**: The new - season jujubes are about to be harvested. The market is expected to trade sideways with a slightly bullish trend [35] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The short - term price increase is limited, and the medium - to long - term supply is high. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [37][38][39] - **Eggs**: The short - term supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. Short - selling on rallies for far - month contracts is recommended [40][41] - **Corn**: The new crop is about to be listed, and the supply is sufficient. The price is expected to be weak in the short term. Short - selling on rallies and 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage are recommended [40][41][42] - **Soybean Meal**: The price is affected by US soybean harvest and Sino - US trade relations. Buying on dips for the M2601 contract is recommended [42] - **Oils**: The price is affected by palm oil production, soybean supply, and rapeseed import. Buying after a correction is recommended [43][44][45][46][47][48][49]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is influenced by the optimistic sentiment of the China - US trade agreement, with the US dollar index rebounding and global risk appetite rising. The domestic economic growth is accelerating, and the market is generally optimistic about the China - US trade negotiations. The increase in domestic policy support boosts domestic risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward drive has strengthened, and attention should be paid to the progress of China - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [2][3]. - Different asset classes have different trends: stocks are expected to be strongly volatile in the short term; bonds are expected to be volatile; commodities show different trends in different sectors, with some in a state of shock and some with clear short - term trends [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - **Macro**: Overseas, the US dollar rebounds due to the optimistic sentiment of the China - US trade agreement, and global risk appetite rises. Domestically, economic growth accelerates, and the market is optimistic about trade negotiations. Policy support increases, and the short - term macro - upward drive strengthens. For assets, stocks are strongly volatile in the short term and can be cautiously bought; bonds are volatile and should be cautiously observed; different commodity sectors have different trends [2]. - **Stock Index**: Driven by sectors such as combustible ice, fruit chains, and construction machinery, the domestic stock market rises significantly. With economic growth and policy support, the short - term macro - upward drive strengthens. It is recommended to cautiously buy in the short term [3]. - **Precious Metals**: The precious metals market falls at night. Due to the rise of the US dollar and profit - taking, the short - term is in a high - level correction, but the medium - and long - term upward pattern remains unchanged. Short - term long positions should be reduced on rallies, and medium - and long - term positions should be bought on dips [3]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel futures and spot markets continue to fluctuate. Trade conflicts are expected to ease, and there are expectations for policies, which support prices. However, the fundamentals are weak, demand is weak, and it is expected to weaken further after late October. Supply is likely to decline. There is no trending market, and the upward and downward space is limited in the short term [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot price is flat, and the futures price rebounds slightly. The iron - water production is expected to decline further. Steel mills replenish stocks slightly. Global shipments increase, and arrivals decrease. The port inventory rises. It is recommended to treat it with a range - bound thinking [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices decline slightly, and the futures prices fluctuate. The demand for ferroalloys decreases. The supply of silicon manganese increases slightly. The prices of both are expected to continue to fluctuate in the range [7]. Chemicals - **Soda Ash**: The main contract fluctuates in the range. Supply is in the capacity - release period, and demand increases slightly. It should be treated with a bearish view in the medium and long term [8]. - **Glass**: The main contract fluctuates in the range. Supply increases, and demand is weak after the "Golden September and Silver October". It is recommended to operate in the short - term range [8]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The Shanghai copper price fluctuates and falls, affected by the weak commodity atmosphere and the decline of gold. The US copper inventory is high, and the domestic de - stocking is less than expected. Although the Indonesian mine is shut down, it will resume production next year, and the supply is expected to increase. It is expected to maintain high - level volatility [9]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum price rises slightly. The external market is stronger than the domestic market, and the domestic fundamentals are poor. The inventory decline is slow. The London inventory decreases. It is expected to fluctuate in the range in the short term [10]. - **Tin**: The supply is tight in the short term, and the demand improvement is limited. The price is at a high level, which suppresses consumption. The inventory decreases this week. It is expected to maintain high - level volatility [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract falls slightly. The supply and demand both increase, the inventory decreases, and the market is expected to be strongly volatile [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract falls. The production reaches a new high, and the inventory does not accumulate during the wet season. The 2511 contract faces the pressure of warehouse - receipt digestion. It is expected to fluctuate in the range [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract falls. The warehouse - receipt quantity increases, and there is pressure from the concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts in November. The supply is high, and the demand is low. It is necessary to wait for the implementation of the state - reserve news [13][14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Methanol**: The domestic methanol market is weak, and the port market has a weakening basis. The short - term supply decreases, the demand for olefins is high, and the inventory decreases slightly. However, the traditional downstream demand is weak, and the supply pressure will increase. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [15]. - **PP**: The market price falls in part. The supply growth rate is higher than the demand, the inventory is high, and the cost support weakens. It is necessary to focus on the recovery of downstream demand [16]. - **LLDPE**: The price of polyethylene is adjusted. The supply increases, the inventory accumulates, and the demand is differentiated. The cost support weakens, and the market is under pressure in the short term [16]. - **Urea**: The urea market is weak. The production is expected to increase, the demand for compound fertilizers is ending, the agricultural demand is warming up, and the export is shrinking. The short - term market may rise slightly after a stalemate, but there is still a risk of decline [17]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The rise of US soybeans pauses. The sowing in Brazil is progressing smoothly, and the weather in Argentina is good. The CBOT soybean assets are mainly in a wait - and - see state. The trade between China and the US is the key factor for the future market [18][19]. - **Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal**: The oil - mill operating rate is high, the soybean meal delivery is urgent, and the terminal procurement is cautious. The oil - mill profit is in deficit, and the willingness to support the price is strong. There is a supply gap risk in the domestic market before the South American new soybeans are listed. The soybean meal is expected to stabilize after a decline, and the rapeseed meal is mainly affected by the soybean meal [19]. - **Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil**: The soybean oil market is in the peak season, and the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil provides consumption expectations. The rapeseed oil inventory is decreasing, and the spot basis is stable [19]. - **Palm Oil**: The domestic palm oil arrives in large quantities, the inventory increases, and the basis is weak. The production and export growth rates in Malaysia decline [20]. - **Corn**: The corn market price is strong, the new - season corn is on the market, the downstream demand is positive, the price is close to the cost line, and farmers' reluctance to sell may increase [20]. - **Pigs**: After the festival, the production and inventory reduction accelerate, the pig price falls to a new low, and the profit is in deficit. There is support for restocking in some areas, and the supply is expected to decrease in late October, which will stabilize the price. Unless the demand increases seasonally, it is difficult for the price to recover significantly [20].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro-finance: Long-term bullish on stock indices, recommended to buy on dips; neutral on treasury bonds, recommended to hold off [1][5] - Black building materials: Neutral on coking coal and rebar, recommended for range trading; neutral on glass, recommended to hold off [1][7][8] - Non-ferrous metals: Neutral on copper, recommended to hold long positions cautiously on dips without chasing highs; neutral on aluminum, recommended to build long positions on dips after pullbacks; neutral on nickel, recommended to hold off or short on rallies; neutral on tin, recommended for range trading; neutral on gold and silver, recommended for range trading [1][11][13] - Energy and chemicals: Neutral on PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins, recommended for range trading; bearish on soda ash 01 contract, recommended a short position [1][21][23] - Cotton textile industry chain: Neutral on cotton and cotton yarn, recommended for range trading; bearish on PTA, recommended for range trading; bullish on apples and jujubes, recommended for bullish range trading [1][34][35] - Agriculture and animal husbandry: Bearish on pigs and eggs, recommended to short on rallies; neutral on corn, recommended for range trading; neutral on soybean meal, recommended for range trading; bullish on oils, recommended to buy after corrections [1][38][44] Core Views of the Report The report provides investment strategies for various futures products based on fundamental and technical analyses. It considers factors such as supply and demand, macroeconomic conditions, policy expectations, and geopolitical events. Overall, the market is expected to be volatile, with different products showing different trends and investment opportunities [1][5][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro-finance - Stock indices are expected to be volatile in the short term but bullish in the long term, supported by China's GDP growth, income growth, and policy expectations. Recommended to buy on dips [5]. - Treasury bonds are recommended to be held off, with the outcome of the Sino-US negotiation at the end of the month being the key factor affecting market risk appetite. Band trading can be considered if there is significant volatility in the next two weeks [5]. Black Building Materials - Coking coal and coke are expected to be volatile, with coking coal having long-term value due to supply constraints and inventory health. Coke prices are supported by demand from steel mills [7][8]. - Rebar is expected to be volatile at low levels, with limited downside due to low valuations and improving demand. A long position can be considered when RB2601 stabilizes around 3000 [8]. - Glass is recommended to be held off, as the market is weak due to environmental policies, inventory accumulation, and lack of demand. Wait for a reversal before considering a long position [9][10]. Non-ferrous Metals - Copper is expected to remain strong at high levels, supported by supply disruptions, interest rate cuts, and potential demand growth in the fourth quarter. Recommended to hold long positions cautiously on dips without chasing highs [11]. - Aluminum is expected to be volatile, with a recommendation to build long positions on dips after pullbacks. Pay attention to tariff developments and market sentiment [13]. - Nickel is expected to be in a surplus situation in the long term, with a recommendation to hold off or short on rallies. The new RKAB approval policy may bring uncertainty to the nickel ore market [18]. - Tin is expected to be volatile, with a recommendation for range trading. Pay attention to supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [18]. - Gold and silver are expected to be supported by interest rate cut expectations and safe-haven sentiment. Recommended to trade cautiously and build positions after sufficient price corrections [19][20]. Energy and Chemicals - PVC is expected to be volatile, with a focus on the 4600 - 4800 range for the 01 contract. Pay attention to macro data, export conditions, inventory, and raw material prices [21][22]. - Caustic soda is expected to be weakly volatile, with a focus on the 2450 resistance level for the 01 contract. Pay attention to downstream inventory replenishment and export conditions [23][24]. - Styrene is expected to be weakly volatile, with a focus on the 6600 resistance level. Pay attention to oil prices, pure benzene supply, macro data, and plant operations [24][25]. - Rubber is expected to be volatile, with a focus on the 14500 support level. Pay attention to raw material prices, inventory, and downstream demand [26][27]. - Urea is expected to be bottoming out and volatile, with a range of 1550 - 1650. Pay attention to compound fertilizer production, urea plant maintenance, export policies, and coal prices [28]. - Methanol is expected to be volatile, with a weak short-term market due to increased supply, stable traditional demand, and high inventory [30]. - Polyolefins are expected to be weakly volatile, with a focus on the 6800 support level for L2601 and the 6500 support level for PP2601. Pay attention to downstream demand, interest rate cuts, trade relations, and oil prices [30][31]. - Soda ash 01 contract is recommended for a short position, as the market is under pressure from oversupply and inventory accumulation [31][33]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be volatile, with uncertainties in the Sino-US relationship. The 2025/26 and 2024/25 cotton supply and demand forecasts show a decrease in ending stocks [34][35]. - PTA is expected to be weakly volatile, with a focus on the 4350 - 4600 range. Pay attention to oil prices, supply and demand, and macroeconomic conditions [35]. - Apples are expected to be bullishly volatile, with high-quality fruits commanding higher prices. The expected increase in delivery costs due to quality decline may support prices [36]. - Jujubes are expected to be bullishly volatile. Pay attention to the progress of new-season orchard contracts in Xinjiang [37]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - Pigs are under pressure, with a recommendation to reduce short positions in the 11 contract, hold short positions in the 01, 03, and 05 contracts, and be cautious about bottom-fishing in the 07 and 09 contracts. Pay attention to secondary fattening and supply and demand dynamics [38][40]. - Eggs are expected to face resistance in rebounds. Partially close short positions in the 11 contract and wait for spot price guidance. Consider shorting the 12 and 01 contracts on rallies. Pay attention to chicken culling, weather, diseases, and environmental policies [40][41]. - Corn is expected to be range-trading, with a bearish view on the 11 contract. Consider shorting on rallies and pay attention to the 2120 - 2150 resistance level. Also, pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread. Focus on policies and weather conditions [42]. - Soybean meal is expected to be trading at low levels, with limited upside due to harvest pressure and slow US soybean exports. Pay attention to Sino-US trade relations and post-October shipping purchases [43]. - Oils are expected to have limited corrections. Pay attention to the support levels of 8200 - 8250, 9200 - 9300, and 9800 - 9900 for the 01 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil, respectively. Consider buying after corrections [44][50].

Report Summary 1. Market Data and Central Bank Operations - DRO01 closed at 1.31 with a -0.03 bp change, DR007 at 1.42 with a -1.44 bp change, GC001 at 1.54 with a 19.00 bp change, and GC007 at 1.50 with a 1.00 bp change [3]. - SHBOR 3M was at 1.58 with no change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change, 1 - year treasury at 1.40 with a 0.75 bp change, 5 - year treasury at 1.58 with a 0.50 bp change, 10 - year treasury at 1.76 with a 0.60 bp change, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.02 with a - 0.50 bp change [3]. - The central bank conducted 43.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40% with a net injection of 43.5 billion yuan as there were no reverse repurchase maturities [3]. - This week, 1021 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, with 612 billion yuan and 409 billion yuan maturing on Thursday and Friday respectively [4]. 2. Stock Index Performance - The CSI 300 rose 1.48% to 4606.3, SSE 50 rose 1.36% to 3001.3, CSI 500 rose 1.38% to 7294, and CSI 1000 rose 1.5% to 7483.4 [5]. - Industry sectors generally rose, with automotive, aviation, power grid equipment, and pharmaceutical sectors leading the gains, while shipping and small - metal sectors declined [5]. - The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2.0729 trillion yuan, a significant decrease of 503.4 billion yuan or 17% from the previous day [5]. 3. Futures Contracts and Market Outlook - In the futures market, IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts all showed price increases, but their trading volumes and open interests decreased to varying degrees [5]. - In the short term, the stock index is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the impact of tariff policies and the Sino - US leaders' meeting at the APEC in South Korea at the end of this month [5]. - Small - and medium - cap stocks with high technology weights may face greater shocks, and risk - hedging tools such as CSI 1000 put options can be considered [5]. - The CSI 300 and SSE 50 indexes are expected to show stronger resilience, and in the long term, the upward trend of the stock index is expected to continue [5]. 4. Futures Contract Premium and Discount - IF's premium/discount rates for different contracts were 0.00%, 4.22%, 3.64%, and 2.61% respectively [5]. - IH's were 1.03%, 11.85%, 0.74%, and 0.23% [5]. - IC's were 13.23%, 39.54%, 11.84%, and 10.17% [5]. - IM's were 67.43%, 15.93%, 15.63%, and 13.23% [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Long-term bullish on stock indices, recommended to buy on dips; hold a wait-and-see attitude towards treasury bonds [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Ranged trading for coking coal and rebar; recommended to wait and see for glass [1][8][9] - **Non-ferrous Metals**: Recommended to hold long positions on copper on dips; consider low-level long positions on aluminum; wait and see or short on rallies for nickel; ranged trading for tin; buy on dips for gold; ranged trading for silver [1][11][19] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to fluctuate; short strategy for soda ash 01 contract [1][21][33] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate with a bearish outlook; PTA is expected to have a narrow-range fluctuation; apples and jujubes are expected to fluctuate stronger [1][34][36] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Short on rallies for pigs and eggs; corn is expected to have a wide-range fluctuation; soybean meal is expected to have a range-bound fluctuation; oils are expected to fluctuate stronger [1][40][48] Core Viewpoints - The stock index market may have wide-range fluctuations in the future due to the change in the macro environment and the impact on the technology sector; the bond market may continue to fluctuate due to geopolitical and trade issues [5] - The black building materials market is affected by factors such as rainfall, demand, and tariffs, with prices showing different trends; the non-ferrous metals market is affected by supply, demand, and macro factors, with copper and gold prices expected to be supported [11][19] - The energy chemicals market is affected by supply, demand, and macro policies, with PVC and soda ash facing certain pressure; the cotton textile industry chain is affected by supply and demand and Sino-US relations, with cotton and PTA showing different trends [22][34] - The agricultural and livestock market is affected by supply, demand, and policies, with pigs and eggs facing supply pressure and oils expected to have limited callbacks [40][52] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: The market is expected to fluctuate in the short term and be bullish in the long term. It is recommended to buy on dips. The market turnover has increased, and the technology sector has been affected by the macro environment [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: It is recommended to hold a wait-and-see attitude. The bond market may continue to fluctuate due to geopolitical and trade issues [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The market is expected to fluctuate. The pithead price shows a differentiated trend, and the demand for early heating provides potential support [8] - **Rebar**: The market is expected to fluctuate. The price has fallen, and the static valuation is low. It is recommended to pay attention to the buying opportunity around 3000 for RB2601 [8] - **Glass**: It is recommended to wait and see. The supply has increased slightly, the inventory has risen, and the market is affected by policies and supply news [9][10] Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The market is expected to maintain a high-level strong trend. The supply is affected by accidents, and the demand has room for improvement in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to hold long positions on dips [11] - **Aluminum**: The market is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The supply is stable, the demand is in the peak season, and it is recommended to consider low-level long positions [13] - **Nickel**: The market is expected to fluctuate. The supply may be loose, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [18] - **Tin**: The market is expected to fluctuate. The supply is tight, the demand is warming up, and it is recommended to conduct ranged trading [18] - **Gold and Silver**: The market is expected to fluctuate. The prices are supported by the expectation of interest rate cuts and risk aversion. It is recommended to trade cautiously after price corrections [19] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The market is expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at 4800 for 01 [22] - **Caustic Soda**: The market is expected to fluctuate. The supply is high, the demand is increasing, and it is recommended to pay attention to the range of 2380 - 2530 for 01 [25] - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to maintain a short strategy for the 01 contract. The supply is excessive, the demand is weak, and the price may decline [33] - **Other Chemicals**: The markets of styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to fluctuate, and different factors affect their prices [22][26][28] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The market is expected to fluctuate with a bearish outlook. The supply and demand are adjusted, and the Sino-US relationship brings uncertainty [34] - **PTA**: The market is expected to have a narrow-range fluctuation. The cost support is insufficient, and the supply and demand are balanced [35][36] - **Apples and Jujubes**: The markets are expected to fluctuate stronger. The production and supply of apples are affected by the weather, and the supply of jujubes is affected by the harvest time [36][37] Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: The market is under pressure. The supply is increasing, and the price is expected to be weak in the short and long term. It is recommended to adjust short positions [40] - **Eggs**: The market is under pressure to rebound. The supply is sufficient, the demand is weak, and it is recommended to adjust short positions and wait for the spot market [42] - **Corn**: The market is expected to have a range-bound fluctuation. The new crop is listed, and the supply and demand are balanced. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 11 contract [43] - **Soybean Meal**: The market is expected to have a low-level range-bound fluctuation. The supply and demand are balanced, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support at 2900 for M2601 [45] - **Oils**: The market is expected to have limited callbacks. The prices are affected by multiple factors, and it is recommended to buy after the callback [52]