Report Summary 1. Market Data - DR001 closed at 1.36 with a -9.56bp change, DR007 at 1.49 with a -1.66bp change, GC001 at 1.36 with a 4.00bp change, and GC007 at 1.47 with a -1.00bp change [3] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.55 with a -0.20bp change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with a 0.00bp change [3] - 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year Chinese treasury bonds closed at 1.35, 1.52, and 1.68 respectively, with changes of 0.25bp, 1.65bp, and 1.10bp; 10 - year US treasury bonds closed at 4.44 with a -3.00bp change [3] - The central bank conducted 1707 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40%, with 2262 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 555 billion yuan [3] - This week, 17268 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, with 2000 billion yuan of MLF maturing on July 25 and 1200 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposits maturing on July 22 [4] 2. Stock Index Data - The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 closed at 4086, 2772, 6161.3, and 6612.3 respectively, with changes of 0.67%, 0.28%, 1.01%, and 0.92% [5] - IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts' closing prices and changes are presented, along with their volume and open interest changes [5] - The trading volume of the A - share market reached 1.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 1289 billion yuan from last Friday, with most sectors rising and the banking sector falling [5] 3. Core Views - With the end of the tax - payment period, inter - bank market funds are abundant [4] - The upcoming policies for ten key industries and the start of a major hydropower project are positive factors [6] - Domestic and overseas factors are generally positive, with A - share liquidity and market sentiment strong, and stock indices expected to be bullish [6] 4. Futures Premium and Discount - The premium and discount rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts for different delivery months are provided [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is that the oil price will show a volatile trend [3]. Core View - Supported by the expectation of the consumption peak season, the oil price will maintain a relatively strong oscillation. Geopolitical factors in the short - term are positive, while macro - financial factors are negative. In the medium - to - long - term, supply and demand still have a loosening trend, and the price center will move down [3]. Summary by Directory Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: EIA, OPEC, and IEA all show an increase in global crude oil production. EIA predicts that the global crude oil and related liquid production in 2025 will be 10,460 million barrels per day, an increase of 180 million barrels per day compared to 2024. In June 2025, OPEC's production increased by 21.9 - 42 million barrels per day compared to May, and Non - OPEC DoC countries' production also increased [3]. - **Demand (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: EIA, OPEC, and IEA have different outlooks on demand. EIA expects the global crude oil and related liquid demand in 2025 to be 10,354 million barrels per day, an increase of 80 million barrels per day compared to 2024. IEA continues to lower the demand growth rate forecast [3]. - **Inventory (Short - Term)**: As of the week ending July 11, US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 3.859 million barrels to 422 million barrels, a decline of 0.91%. There were also changes in refined oil and gasoline inventories [3]. - **Oil - Producing Countries' Policies (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: OPEC plans to increase production by 55 million barrels per day in September and then start a new round of production increase of 166 million barrels per day. UAE aims to reach a production capacity of 5 million barrels per day in 2027 [3]. - **Geopolitical Factors (Short - Term)**: The EU has reached an agreement on the 18th sanctions package against Russia, and Trump has put forward requirements for Russia to end the war in Ukraine. These measures may affect Russia's oil exports [3]. - **Macro - Financial Factors (Short - Term)**: Trump is promoting the collection of at least 15% - 20% tariffs in agreements with the EU, which may have a negative impact on the oil market [3]. - **Investment View**: In the short term, supported by the consumption peak - season expectation, the market shows a relatively strong oscillation. In the medium - to - long - term, supply and demand tend to be loose, and the price center will move down [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, sell on rallies. For arbitrage, go long on SC2509 and short on SC2510 [3]. Part Two: Futures Market Data - **Market Review**: Supported by the expectation of the consumption peak season and the impact of sanctions on Russia, international oil prices maintained a relatively strong oscillation. As of July 18, WTI crude oil rose by 2.25 US dollars per barrel (+3.38%), Brent crude oil rose by 2.12 US dollars per barrel (+3.09%), and SC crude oil rose by 10.4 yuan per barrel (+2.07%) [6]. - **Month - Spread and Internal - External Spread**: The month - spread strengthened, while the internal - external spread weakened [8]. - **Forward Curve**: The near - end performance was relatively strong [20]. - **Crack Spread**: The crack spreads of gasoline and diesel declined, while the crack spread of aviation kerosene was stable [23][33]. Part Three: Crude Oil Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production**: In June 2025, OPEC's production increased, and non - OPEC countries' production also increased. US weekly crude oil production was 13.375 million barrels per day, with a slight decrease in the week ending July 11 [53][79]. - **Inventory**: US commercial crude oil inventories decreased, while Cushing inventories increased. Northwest European crude oil inventories rose, and Singapore fuel oil inventories declined [80][89]. - **Demand**: In the US, gasoline implied demand decreased, and refinery operating rates remained high. In China, the capacity utilization rate of independent refineries increased, and the capacity utilization rate of atmospheric and vacuum distillation units rebounded [106][115]. - **Macro - Financial**: The US dollar index rebounded, and US Treasury yields increased [137]. - **CFTC Position**: The speculative long positions in WTI crude oil decreased [147].

Report Information - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: July 18, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Core View - The Shanghai copper market continued its weak and volatile trend. The macro - environment showed an external weakness and internal strength situation. There was no obvious change in the fundamentals. The copper price was in a volatile range as both the macro and fundamental factors provided no clear directional guidance [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The Shanghai copper market continued to show a weak and volatile trend. The U.S. dollar index fluctuated sharply due to Trump's remarks about the Fed chair. Domestically, the premier's meeting on strengthening the domestic market circulation policy made related industrial products rise. The inventory in China decreased by 0.43 million tons this week, the 08 - 09 spread of the Shanghai copper market turned to contango, and the lme0 - 3 contango expanded to 64. The support from the spot market in both Shanghai and London continued to weaken [11]. 2. Industry News - Rio Tinto's copper production in Q2 2025 was 22.9 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 15% and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 9%. Its annual production guidance for 2025 was 78 - 85 million tons, and the output was expected to reach the upper limit of the guidance [12]. - The brass rod market was under pressure. Small enterprises mainly produced continuous casting rods for the real - estate sector, facing insufficient demand and production cuts. Large enterprises had more orders for extrusion rods, but small enterprises had difficulty entering this field due to high production thresholds [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, after a strong breakthrough, the stock index is more likely to strengthen and fluctuate under the drive of sentiment and liquidity. Attention should be paid to macro incremental information for guidance on the stock index direction. In the long - term, the Politburo meeting at the end of July will set the policy tone for the second half of the year. Given the possible further deterioration of real estate sales and investment and the overall weakness of consumption, policies are expected to further support domestic demand. Overseas, the uncertainty of US tariff policies, the approaching Fed rate - cut time, and changes in geopolitical patterns will bring phased trading opportunities for the stock index [6]. - In the future, the central bank may continue to reasonably supplement liquidity through over - renewal of MLF or in combination with reverse repurchase tools in the second half of the year [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial Data - **Interest Rates**: DRO01 closed at 1.51 with a 14.09bp increase, DR007 at 1.91 with a 20.92bp increase, GC001 at 2.14 with a 175.00bp decrease, GC007 at 1.69 with a 34.50bp decrease, SHBOR 3M at 1.63 with no change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change, 1 - year treasury at 1.34 with a 0.50bp decrease, 5 - year treasury at 1.49 with a 0.50bp increase, 10 - year treasury at 1.65 with a 0.10bp increase, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.29 with a 3.00bp increase [3]. - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 3315 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with 2205 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 1110 billion yuan. This week, 20275 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature. The central bank will conduct 3000 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations on the 25th, with 1820 billion yuan maturing, achieving a net injection of 1180 billion yuan for the fourth consecutive month. Combining with reverse repurchase operations, the net injection of medium - term liquidity is 3180 billion yuan [3][4]. 3.2 Stock Index Market - **Index Performance**: Yesterday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 0.37% to 3936.1, the Shanghai 50 rose 0.16% to 2712, the CSI 500 rose 0.88% to 5915.4, and the CSI 1000 rose 1.26% to 6356.2. The trading volume of the two markets was 14869 billion yuan, a decrease of 542 billion yuan from last Friday. Industries such as aerospace, gaming, shipbuilding, photovoltaic equipment, medical services, electronic chemicals, jewelry, small metals, and communication equipment led the gains, while only the securities, banking, cement building materials, and airport sectors declined [5]. - **Futures Contracts**: IF当月 rose 0.4%, IH当月 rose 0.3%, IC当月 rose 0.6%, and IM当月 rose 0.8%. The trading volume and positions of all four futures contracts decreased, with IF trading volume down 26.4%, IH trading volume down 31.3%, IC trading volume down 13.7%, and IM trading volume down 11.4%. IF positions decreased by 3.8%, IH positions by 9.1%, IC positions by 3.4%, and IM positions by 5.7% [5]. - **Premium and Discount**: IF premium/discount rates for the current, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 15.29%, 8.64%, 5.76%, and 4.34% respectively; IH are 14.20%, 6.73%, 3.82%, and 1.72% respectively; IC are 17.96%, 12.96%, 11.17%, and 9.52% respectively; IM are 23.35%, 16.93%, 14.72%, and 12.79% respectively [7].

Report Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. Core Views - The overall market shows mixed trends across different sectors. The stock index market has a positive performance, with most indices rising. The bond market is expected to be volatile, with a downward trend in interest rates in the long - term. The commodity market, including metals, energy, and agricultural products, also has various trends influenced by factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand relationships, and policy changes. [2][7] - It is recommended to take different trading strategies according to different market conditions, such as buying certain stock index futures on dips, and being cautious in the commodity market with a focus on specific opportunities and risks. [4][5] Summary by Categories Macro - financial - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day saw most indices rising, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.04%, the ChiNext Index up 3.11%, etc. The trading volume increased by 188.2 billion yuan. The overseas geopolitical risk has cooled down, and domestic policies are expected to support the economy. It is recommended to buy IH or IF futures on dips and consider IC or IM futures related to "new - quality productivity". [2][4] - **Treasury Bonds**: On Wednesday, most treasury bond futures had a slight decline. The economic data shows some disturbances and structural differentiation. The central bank's liquidity injection maintains a loose attitude, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term, with a downward trend in interest rates in the long - term. [6][7] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices rose. The market's expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy has increased, and the change in the bank regulatory bill is beneficial to silver. It is recommended to buy silver on dips. [8][10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price oscillated and rebounded. The overseas geopolitical situation has eased, but the uncertainty of the Fed's interest - rate cut suppresses the sentiment. The copper raw material market is tight, and the low inventory may support the price to rise, but the weakening domestic consumption limits the upside. The price is expected to oscillate and rise, and attention should be paid to the import loss for arbitrage. [12] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price oscillated. The cost - driving force has weakened, and the demand expectation has improved. The low inventory may push the price up, but the price increase and the off - season effect limit the upside. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term. [13] - **Zinc**: The zinc price rose slightly. The zinc industry is in the process of converting surplus zinc ore into zinc ingots, with a high expectation of zinc ingot output. However, some factors affect the inventory and production, and the geopolitical situation may affect the zinc ore export. [15] - **Lead**: The lead price rose. The lead acid battery export growth has slowed down, and the downstream consumption is weak. But the high - concentration long - position in the LME lead July contract and the reduction of domestic inventory make the price run relatively strongly, with limited upside for Shanghai lead. [16] - **Nickel**: The nickel price rebounded slightly. The cost of downstream iron plants is under pressure, and the nickel ore price may fall. The nickel iron price is also under pressure, and the refined nickel supply - demand is in an oversupply situation, with a risk of price decline. [17] - **Tin**: The tin price fell slightly. The supply of tin ore is short - term tight, but the terminal demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to oscillate in a certain range. [18] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate price fluctuated slightly. The marginal variables in supply, demand, and cost are limited, and it is recommended to operate cautiously. [19] - **Alumina**: The alumina price rose slightly. The alumina production capacity is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended to short on rallies. [20] - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel price rose slightly. The market supply exceeds demand, and the demand is weak. The planned production cut by steel mills eases the supply - demand contradiction, but the price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term. [21][23] Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The steel price oscillated. The real estate demand is weak, and the market is in the off - season. The terminal demand is weakening, and the market confidence is low. Attention should be paid to policy trends, demand repair, and cost support. [25][26] - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price was slightly down. The supply has increased, and the demand is relatively stable. The price is in a low - volatility state with support from iron production and pressure from supply. [27][28] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The glass price is expected to be weakly volatile due to the lack of real - estate demand boost. The soda ash supply is expected to be loose, and the price is also expected to be weakly volatile. [29] - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose. They are still in a downward trend, and the fundamentals point to a downward price. It is not recommended to buy on dips prematurely, and attention should be paid to price fluctuations caused by market sentiment. [30][31][33] - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon price rebounded. The supply is in an oversupply situation, and the demand is weak. The price may continue to decline, and it is not recommended to buy on dips. [35][36][37] Energy and Chemicals - **Rubber**: The rubber price oscillated. The bulls expect a price increase due to potential production cuts, while the bears are concerned about weak demand. The tire开工率 is rising, and it is recommended to take a neutral approach and focus on short - term operations. [39][40][43] - **Crude Oil**: The crude oil price fell slightly. The geopolitical risk has been released, and the price is in a reasonable range. It is not recommended to short further. [44][45][46] - **Methanol**: The methanol price rose. The market is expected to return to the supply - demand fundamentals, with high domestic supply and potential weakening demand. It is recommended to wait and see. [47] - **Urea**: The urea price rose. The supply is high, and the demand is relatively weak. The price is expected to have no clear trend in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see. [48] - **Styrene**: The styrene price is expected to be oscillated and bearish. The cost is relatively stable, the supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. [49] - **PVC**: The PVC price rose. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to decline steadily under the background of geopolitical easing. [51][52] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol price fell. The supply is increasing, and the demand is expected to decline. The inventory is accumulating, and it is recommended to short on rallies with caution. [53] - **PTA**: The PTA price rose. The supply is expected to increase after the end of the maintenance season, and the demand is under pressure. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long following PX. [54] - **Para - xylene**: The PX price fell. The supply and demand are in a dynamic balance, and the price is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long following the decline. [55][56] - **Polyethylene (PE)**: The PE price rose slightly. The supply pressure may ease, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate. [57] - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The PP price rose slightly. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to decline seasonally. The price is expected to be bearish in June. [58] Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The hog price showed mixed trends. The northern region may raise prices, while the southern region has stable supply. It is recommended to go long on near - term contracts at low prices and short on long - term contracts at high prices. [60] - **Eggs**: The egg price mostly fell. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the demand is average. The price is expected to be mostly stable with a few slight declines. It is recommended to short on rallies. [61] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The soybean and rapeseed meal prices fell. The domestic soybean meal inventory is increasing, and the supply is relatively sufficient. It is recommended to go long at the low - end of the cost range and pay attention to supply pressure at the high - end. [62][63] - **Oils and Fats**: The oil and fat prices oscillated. The Brazilian biodiesel policy is beneficial, but there are still some negative factors. The price is expected to oscillate. [64][65][66] - **Sugar**: The sugar price rebounded. The Brazilian sugar production is expected to change, and the import profit window is open. The sugar price is expected to decline steadily. [67] - **Cotton**: The cotton price rose. The market is in the off - season, and the high basis affects consumption. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term. [68]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil price fluctuates widely due to the intersection of production increase and geopolitical factors, and the chemical industry shows a weakening trend in a volatile manner [1]. - The international crude oil supply - demand is likely to become looser in the medium - to - long - term, and the short - term oil price is bearish. The polyester downstream has improved significantly, with PTA showing a slightly stronger trend in a volatile manner and ethylene glycol slightly strengthening. The styrene cost is expected to collapse and trend weakly. The LPG price is expected to continue to decline in a volatile manner in the short term. The BR price is expected to decline in a volatile manner in the medium - to - long - term. The asphalt fundamentals are better than those of crude oil, and it is more resistant to decline and has lower volatility. The container shipping index for European routes is recommended for short - term observation [7][10][11][12][13][16][18]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Week - ly Viewpoint Strategy Summary - **Price Monitoring**: The report provides the closing price monitoring data of various energy and chemical products, including the current value, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes, and weekly price trends of products such as the US dollar - RMB exchange rate, various types of crude oil, natural rubber, and chemical products [6]. - **Investment and Trading Views**: Different investment and trading views are given for various energy and chemical products. For example, the short - term view on crude oil is bearish, with a suggestion to wait and see for both single - side and arbitrage trading. For natural rubber, the short - term view is bearish, with a suggestion to wait and see for single - side trading and to short the 1 - 9 spread when it is above 1000 for arbitrage trading [7][9]. 3.2 Crude Oil (SC) - **Influencing Factors**: - **Supply**: EIA, OPEC, and IEA have different forecasts for global crude oil production. OPEC+ members are discussing further production increases, and Kazakhstan may exceed its production plan [8][21]. - **Demand**: EIA, OPEC, and IEA have different adjustments to global crude oil demand forecasts, with a general trend of weakening [8][21]. - **Inventory**: The US EIA crude oil inventory and related product inventories have different changes, with the commercial inventory increasing and the Cushing inventory decreasing [8][21][106]. - **Policy and Geopolitics**: OPEC+ production policies, US tariff policies, and geopolitical events such as the US - Iran nuclear negotiations and Israeli threats to attack Iranian nuclear facilities all affect the oil price [8][21]. - **Market Performance**: The oil price fluctuates widely. As of May 23, the prices of WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil all show a downward trend on a weekly basis [24]. - **Investment and Trading Views**: The short - term oil price is bearish. It is recommended to wait and see for both single - side and arbitrage trading. Key factors to monitor include OPEC+ production cut policy changes, Middle East geopolitical situation disturbances, and US policy uncertainties [8][21]. 3.3 Natural Rubber (RU&NR) - **Influencing Factors**: - **Supply**: The supply in domestic and overseas production areas is affected by weather and other factors. The raw material acquisition price in Yunnan maintains a high - level shock, and the raw material output in Hainan increases but is still lower than last year's level. In Thailand, the new rubber output is low at the beginning of the tapping season, and in Vietnam, the fresh rubber supply is restricted by rainfall [9]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises shows a mixed trend, and most enterprises have general sales and inventory pressure, with a potential decrease in the capacity utilization rate next week [9]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of natural rubber in China has decreased slightly, and the warehouse receipts of RU and 20 - number rubber have also decreased [9]. - **Other Factors**: The profit, basis, spread, and macro - policy all have an impact on the rubber price [9]. - **Investment and Trading Views**: The short - term view is bearish. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and to short the 1 - 9 spread when it is above 1000 for arbitrage trading. Key factors to monitor include production area weather disturbances, reserve policy changes, and domestic and overseas macro - policy disturbances [9]. 3.4 Polyester (TA&EG&PF) - **Influencing Factors**: - **Supply**: The spread between PX and naphtha and MX has increased, prompting some PX producers to seek MX supplies, and the net profit of the reforming unit has recovered [10]. - **Demand**: The downstream load of polyester has recovered, the polyester load remains at a high level of 94%, and the polyester inventory has been significantly reduced [10]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of PTA has declined, and PTA has entered a de - stocking cycle [10]. - **Other Factors**: The basis, profit, valuation, and macro - policy all affect the market [10]. - **Investment and Trading Views**: There is no obvious driving force, and it is expected to be mainly bullish. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, and key factors to monitor include geopolitical risks [10]. 3.5 Styrene (EB) - **Influencing Factors**: - **Supply**: The Asian styrene price has rebounded, and the domestic device load is gradually recovering [11]. - **Demand**: The EPS start - up rate has rebounded, the PS start - up rate has slightly decreased, and the start - up rates of acrylonitrile, butadiene, and ABS are stable [11]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports has decreased [11]. - **Other Factors**: The basis, profit, valuation, and macro - policy all have an impact on the styrene market [11]. - **Investment and Trading Views**: The styrene cost is expected to collapse and trend weakly. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, and key factors to monitor include geopolitical risks [11]. 3.6 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - **Influencing Factors**: - **Supply**: The domestic LPG production and arrival volume have different changes, and some refineries have production adjustments, which may lead to an increase in domestic supply [12]. - **Demand**: The combustion demand is in a seasonal off - peak, the profit of olefin deep - processing is weak, and the propane chemical demand has increased but the downstream demand is in a seasonal off - peak [12]. - **Inventory**: The refinery inventory pressure has increased, and the port inventory has continued to accumulate [12]. - **Other Factors**: The basis, position, downstream profit, valuation, and geopolitical and macro - factors all affect the LPG market [12]. - **Investment and Trading Views**: The short - term view is bearish in a volatile manner. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and to pay attention to the weakening of the inter - month spread and the narrowing of the PDH profit in the off - peak season for arbitrage trading. Key factors to monitor include Sino - US tariff policies, US sanctions on Iran, and downstream demand changes [12]. 3.7 Butadiene Rubber (BR) - **Influencing Factors**: - **Supply**: The domestic butadiene production has decreased slightly, and the production of butadiene rubber may continue to decrease due to losses and device maintenance [13]. - **Demand**: The demand for both all - steel and semi - steel tires is weak [13]. - **Inventory**: The butadiene port inventory has decreased, while the butadiene rubber enterprise and trader inventory has increased [13]. - **Other Factors**: The basis, spread, profit, and macro - geopolitical factors all affect the BR market [13]. - **Investment and Trading Views**: The short - term BR price is relatively stable, but it is expected to decline in the medium - to - long - term. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and to consider a long - BR and short - NR/RU strategy for arbitrage trading. Key factors to monitor include downstream demand, cost changes, device maintenance, and geopolitical situations [13]. 3.8 Caustic Soda (SH) There is no detailed information provided for caustic soda in the given content. 3.9 PVC (V) There is no detailed analysis information provided for PVC in the given content. 3.10 Asphalt (BU) - **Influencing Factors**: - **Supply**: The domestic asphalt production plan in May shows different trends in different regions, and the import situation is also affected by various factors such as price and demand [16]. - **Demand**: The demand in the north is gradually released, while the demand in the south is limited due to the rainy season and capital issues [16]. - **Inventory**: The refinery inventory is accumulating, while the social inventory in most regions is decreasing [16]. - **Cost and Profit**: The crude oil market is affected by multiple factors, and the asphalt processing profit is relatively stable [16]. - **Investment and Trading Views**: The asphalt fundamentals are better than those of crude oil, and it is more resistant to decline and has lower volatility. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and to pay attention to the opportunity of shorting the cracking spread for arbitrage trading. Key factors to monitor include geopolitical disturbances and Trump's policies [16]. 3.11 Container Shipping Index for European Routes (EC) - **Influencing Factors**: - **Spot Freight Rate**: The May spot freight rate has declined slightly, and shipping companies are trying to increase the June freight rate [18]. - **Politics**: Events such as the US - Israel - Hamas negotiation, the Antwerp port strike, and the resurgence of the Red Sea crisis affect the market [18]. - **Capacity Supply**: The long - term capacity delivery is at a historical high, and the short - term capacity supply is gradually increasing [18]. - **Demand**: The cargo volume on the US route has increased, and the cargo volume on the European route is in a seasonal recovery stage [18]. - **Investment and Trading Views**: It is recommended for short - term observation. It is recommended to wait and see for both single - side and arbitrage trading. Key factors to monitor include geopolitical disturbances and domestic and overseas macro - policy disturbances [18].

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | 宏观金融数据日报 | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前一日变动 | 品种 | 收盘价 | 我則一日变 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (%) | | | 动(%) | | 沪深300 | 3882 | -0.81 | IF当月 | 3846 | -0.9 | | 上证50 | 2712 | -0.80 | IH当月 | 2693 | -0.8 | | 中证500 | 5653 | -0.88 | IC当月 | 5562 | -0.9 | | 中证1000 | 5990 | -1.26 | IM当月 | 5872 | -1.3 | | IF成交量 | 110117 | 52.7 | IF持仓量 | 251143 | 7.7 | | IH成交量 | 51804 | 38.4 | IH持仓量 | 85531 | 9.0 | | IC成交量 | 98824 | 27.3 | IC持仓量 | 216012 | 4.0 | | IM成交量 | 233775 | 15.2 | IM持仓量 | 335860 | 1.6 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View - As the market's response to tariff shocks and policy support weakens, and the current rebound has reached the upper limit of the range, the market may enter a short - term consolidation phase without incremental catalysts. It is advisable to cautiously observe the stock index and pay attention to macro - incremental signals [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Interest Rate and Bond Market - DRO01 closed at 1.48, down 3.18bp; DR007 closed at 1.57, down 0.49bp; GC001 closed at 1.49, down 5.00bp; GC007 closed at 1.61, down 0.50bp; SHBOR 3M closed at 1.64, unchanged; LPR 5 - year closed at 3.50, down 10.00bp; 1 - year treasury closed at 1.45, up 0.25bp; 5 - year treasury closed at 1.53, unchanged; 10 - year treasury closed at 1.69, up 1.40bp; 10 - year US treasury closed at 4.58, up 10.00bp [3] - On May 20, the 1 - year LPR was 3.0% (previously 3.1%), and the 5 - year LPR was 3.5% (previously 3.6%). The central bank guided the LPR to decline through policy rate cuts, which will reduce the financing costs of the real economy. Also, on May 20, some banks cut deposit rates, with large state - owned banks' current deposit rates falling below 0.1% and 1 - year fixed - deposit rates falling below 1% [4] - The central bank conducted 154.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40%. With 64.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturing, the net investment on the day was 90 billion yuan [3] Stock Index and Futures Market - The CSI 300 closed at 3914, down 0.06%; the SSE 50 closed at 2734, up 0.19%; the CSI 500 closed at 5703, down 0.95%; the CSI 1000 closed at 6066.1, down 1.08%. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.1 trillion yuan, a decrease of over 70 billion yuan [5] - IF volume was 72,125, down 7.3%; IF open interest was 233,159, down 0.8%; IH volume was 37,418, up 2.6%; IH open interest was 78,458, up 1.1%; IC volume was 77,616, up 31.0%; IC open interest was 207,764, up 3.8%; IM volume was 202,919, up 34.7%; IM open interest was 330,540, up 7.8% [5] - The market volume shrank, small and medium - cap stocks led the decline, the futures discount widened during the session, but the IM recovered some discount as the CSI 1000 accelerated its decline at the end of the session. The press conference after the market mainly mentioned financing for technology companies with little incremental information [5] - The IF, IH, IC, and IM futures showed different levels of premium or discount in different contracts. For example, IF's current - month contract had a 11.02% premium, and IM's current - month contract had a 24.09% premium [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - On May 20, the central bank guided the LPR to decline synchronously through policy rate cuts, which will drive down the loan costs of enterprises and residents and reduce the financing costs of the real economy. Meanwhile, state - owned big banks and some joint - stock banks lowered deposit rates, with the current deposit rate of state - owned big banks falling below 0.1% and the 1 - year fixed - deposit rate falling below 1%. Driven by liquidity, small - cap stocks were active, and the stock index showed a strong oscillation. In the short term, the market may enter a shock consolidation phase, and short - term long positions should consider taking profits on rallies and beware of adjustment risks [4][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Financial Data - **Interest Rates**: DR001 closed at 1.52%, down 2.07bp; DR007 at 1.59%, down 1.57bp; GC001 at 1.52%, up 3.00bp; GC007 at 1.62%, up 2.00bp; SHBOR 3M at 1.64%, down 0.30bp; LPR 5 - year at 3.50%, down 10.00bp; 1 - year treasury at 1.44%, up 0.25bp; 5 - year treasury at 1.54%, up 1.10bp; 10 - year treasury at 1.67%, up 1.20bp; 10 - year US treasury at 4.46%, up 3.00bp [3] - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 1350 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40%. With 430 billion yuan of repurchase maturing, the net investment on the day was 920 billion yuan [3] 3.2 Stock Index Market - **Index Performance**: The CSI 300 rose 0.54% to 3898.2; the SSE 50 rose 0.43% to 2716.6; the CSI 500 rose 0.46% to 5747.4; the CSI 1000 rose 0.83% to 6146. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1.2 trillion yuan, an increase of nearly 100 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors closed higher, with jewelry, household light industry, and other sectors leading the gains, while the shipping port sector fell sharply [5] - **Futures Contracts**: For IF, the closing price of the current - month contract was 3862, up 0.6%, with a trading volume of 72250 (up 4.0%) and an open interest of 237717 (up 1.2%); for IH, the current - month contract closed at 2699, up 0.4%, with a trading volume of 37208 (up 2.2%) and an open interest of 78851 (up 2.3%); for IC, the current - month contract closed at 5621, up 0.5%, with a trading volume of 67678 (down 9.4%) and an open interest of 199111 (down 2.3%); for IM, the current - month contract closed at 6019, up 0.7%, with a trading volume of 173350 (down 9.7%) and an open interest of 309017 (down 2.7%) [5] - **Premium and Discount Situation**: IF's current - month contract premium was 9.90%, IH's was 7.47%, IC's was 19.78%, and IM's was 24.26% [7]