Core Insights - The current trading environment for silver shows significant volatility, with prices fluctuating between $47.88 and $49.31 per ounce, indicating a potential for both upward and downward movements in the near term [1][5]. Market Data - As of October 23, 2025, the latest prices for silver are as follows: - Spot silver: $49.26 per ounce - Silver T+D: ¥11,463 per kilogram - Paper silver: ¥11.288 per gram - Shanghai silver futures: ¥11,467 per kilogram [2]. Economic Analysis - The U.S. September CPI data is expected to show a growth rate similar to August, with energy prices rising by 0.7% in August and likely continuing to increase in September. Core CPI is projected to reach a monthly rate of 0.3%, rounding to 0.4%, with both overall and core CPI annual rates close to 3.0%, exceeding the Federal Reserve's target by one percentage point [3]. - The Federal Reserve has lost access to timely employment data from ADP, which has historically provided a comprehensive dataset covering 20% of the private sector workforce. This loss may impact the Fed's ability to gauge the labor market accurately [3][4]. Trading Strategy - Silver prices have shown slight upward movement due to stable support at $47.80, with bullish momentum indicated by the relative strength index. However, prices remain under negative pressure due to trading below the 50-day EMA, suggesting a potential for a sharp bearish correction in the short term [5]. - Key resistance levels for silver are identified at $50.00 and $49.00, while support levels are at $46.00 and $45.00 [5].

Core Viewpoint - There is a divergence within the Federal Reserve regarding future interest rate cuts, with the final decision heavily influenced by Chairman Powell and Governor Waller [1] Group 1: Powell's Position - Powell has reiterated a dovish stance, indicating a desire to cut rates in October and December, but emphasizes that decisions will depend on economic data [2] - He acknowledges strong GDP and spending data but remains cautious about labor market risks, suggesting that a decline in job vacancies could lead to higher unemployment [2] Group 2: Waller's Position - Waller, a dovish member of the FOMC, has shown signs of a subtle shift in his stance, expressing a desire to cut rates but also acknowledging the need to monitor strong GDP data against a weak labor market [3] - He recognizes that inflation, excluding tariffs, is around 2.5%, which may influence future rate decisions [3] Group 3: Divergence within the FOMC - The FOMC currently exhibits a clear divide, with the Board leaning dovish while regional Fed presidents tend to be more hawkish [4][5] - This division increases the risk of dissenting votes during potential rate cuts in October and December [7] Group 4: Market Predictions - Bank of America predicts a 25 basis point cut in October, followed by a pause in December, contingent on stable employment data and persistent inflation [8] - Upcoming economic reports on inflation and employment will be crucial in determining whether the Fed will proceed with rate cuts or adopt a more cautious approach [10]

Core Insights - The Philadelphia Fed's October business outlook index reported a significant decline of minus 12.8%, marking the weakest performance since April when it was near minus 20, indicating ongoing softness in the manufacturing sector [2] Economic Indicators - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-over-year increase of 2.9%, with a core CPI increase of 3.1%, suggesting persistent inflationary pressures [3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for August indicated a month-over-month decrease of 0.1% for final demand, with year-over-year figures moderating to 2.6% [4] - Retail sales have been robust, with August showing a 6% increase, July also at 6%, and June at 1%, while core retail sales increased by 7.1%, 5.1%, and 0.9% over the last three months [5][6] Labor Market Insights - The Federal Reserve faces challenges as inflation remains sticky, and there are concerns about a potential slowdown in the labor market, which may require more attention [7] - Initial jobless claims data has not shown significant deterioration, making it difficult to identify problems in the labor market despite some negative trends in other macroeconomic indicators [8]

Market Trends and Industry Dynamics - The dollar index has fallen by over 10% since the beginning of the year, marking its worst performance in nearly half a century [1] - Global asset prices, including gold and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, have experienced a significant surge [1] - Global stock markets, including US, European, A-shares, Hong Kong, and Japanese stocks, have generally increased [1] - The correlation between the S&P 500 index and a "mysterious index" reached a high of 824% over the past 5 years [1] Investment Opportunities and Potential Risks - The primary driver of the dollar's decline is risk, particularly related to Trump's tariff policies and concerns about the US government's creditworthiness [1] - Foreign capital inflows into US stock ETFs have increasingly been hedged against dollar risk, with over 80% of funds now employing hedging strategies [1] - Gold has become a preferred safe-haven asset, with significant inflows into gold ETFs, especially from North America [2] - Market expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions are heavily influencing the dollar's movements [2] US Economic Policy and Federal Reserve - The market is closely monitoring US non-farm payroll (NFP) data to anticipate the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [2] - There have been substantial revisions to the NFP data, raising concerns about its accuracy and reliability [3] - Trump's administration is attempting to influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, raising concerns about the central bank's independence [3][4] Global Economic Impact - A weaker dollar and potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are expected to benefit other countries, particularly developing nations [4] - Morgan Stanley predicts that the dollar may depreciate by approximately 10% to around 91 by the end of next year [4]

Core Points - President Trump announced a major celebration for the U.S. Navy's 250th anniversary on October 5 in Norfolk, Virginia, despite the ongoing government shutdown [1][2] - The government shutdown, which began on October 1, has led to significant disruptions in various federal services, including consular services and data reporting by the Bureau of Labor Statistics [4][5] - The economic impact of the shutdown is estimated to reduce GDP growth by 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points for each week it continues, according to S&P Global Ratings [7] Group 1: Government Shutdown Impact - The U.S. government shutdown has resulted in the suspension of consular services and limited updates on the State Department's website [4] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics has halted the release of key employment data, affecting the assessment of economic conditions [5] - The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) placed 81% of its employees on leave, halting most of its operations, including consumer complaint handling [6] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The ongoing government shutdown is expected to create rising economic uncertainty, with potential implications for market sentiment [7] - The shutdown has already led to the closure of numerous national parks and iconic sites in Washington, D.C., due to staffing shortages and funding issues [6]

Group 1 - Policymakers are facing challenges due to the government's shutdown, which is expected to withhold employment data [1]

Core Insights - The monthly government jobs numbers will be delayed, prompting private firms to step in to provide employment data [1] Group 1 - The absence of timely government jobs data creates a gap that private firms are addressing by offering alternative employment statistics [1] - Private sector involvement in labor market data collection may enhance the accuracy and timeliness of employment insights [1]

媒体援引美国参议院银行委员会助理报道称，劳工统计局（BLS）可能准备好发布9月劳动力数据，数 据已经收集完毕。参议院民主党成员Warren针对数据问题写信给BLS代理局长。此前，BLS宣布，美国 政府停摆期间，不会发布就业数据。按惯例，9月非农就业报告将在10月3日发布。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 ...

Core Insights - The ADP report unexpectedly became the focus of the market due to the absence of official employment data from the U.S. government, which is currently in a shutdown [1] - The report indicated a surprising decrease of 32,000 jobs in the private sector for September, significantly below market expectations, leading to initial declines in U.S. stock index futures and a drop in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield [1][3] - The report raised more questions than answers regarding the U.S. economic situation, complicating investors' assessments [3] Group 1: ADP Report Analysis - The ADP report has historically been inconsistent in predicting official non-farm employment data, and this month's report was particularly unusual [4] - A technical recalibration based on the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) led to a reduction of 43,000 jobs in the ADP report, indicating that market interpretations of weak data should be approached with caution [4] - The reliance of private data on official statistics highlights the challenges in data collection and the limitations of private data providers [5] Group 2: Challenges in Data Collection - Data collection is a labor-intensive and costly process, and private data providers are not yet equipped to independently guide the market [5] - Although alternative data from private suppliers is becoming valuable, it is often only accessible to institutional investors and lacks uniform quality [5] - The public sector's role in data collection is crucial, especially for specific demographic employment data, which private entities may not prioritize due to a lack of profit motivation [5] Group 3: Issues with Official Statistics - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) faces challenges, including budget cuts and resource constraints, which have raised concerns about data quality [6] - The BLS has been criticized for unevenly disclosing data to a select group of "super users," further undermining confidence in its statistics [6] - Political pressures have also affected the BLS, as seen in the previous administration's actions that questioned the integrity of the agency [6]

Core Insights - The private sector experienced a loss of 32,000 jobs in September, significantly below the expected gain of 45,000 jobs, following a downward revision of August's figures from 54,000 to a loss of 3,000 jobs [1][3] - The overall labor market is showing signs of weakness, particularly with small companies losing 40,000 jobs while only large corporations gained 33,000 jobs [2][3] Private-Sector Jobs Data Breakdown - The ratio of goods-producing to services jobs remained stable, with goods jobs down by 3,000 and services jobs down by 28,000 [2] - Education and Healthcare sectors led job creation with 33,000 new jobs, while sectors like Trade/Transportation/Utilities, Professional/Business Services, and Leisure & Hospitality saw losses of 7,000, 13,000, and 19,000 jobs respectively [4] Income Change Metrics - Job Stayers saw a 4.5% increase in income compared to a year ago, while Job Changers experienced a 6.6% increase, indicating a narrowing gap in income growth [5] Market Reaction - Pre-market futures showed a negative response to the job numbers, with the Dow down 160 points, S&P 500 down 30 points, and Nasdaq down 130 points, suggesting expectations for potential interest rate cuts [6] Government Shutdown Impact - The federal government shutdown is likely to hinder further job reports from the U.S. Department of Labor and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, limiting insights into the labor market's current state [7]