美联储博斯蒂克：就业数据很重要，修正是更重要的。就业市场从强劲水平放缓。 ...

白宫经济顾问委员会主席Miran：5-6月的就业数据修正；7月份的数据还不错。 ...

Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive time[4] - The ADP employment report for July showed an increase of 104,000 jobs, exceeding expectations[4] - The preliminary annualized GDP growth rate for Q2 2025 was 3%, higher than anticipated[4] Market Performance - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 7.38 basis points to 3.941%[4] - The 5-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 6.25 basis points to 3.960%[4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed by 4.57 basis points to 4.368%[4] Corporate Earnings - Microsoft's Q4 net profit reached $27.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 24%[4] - CATL reported a net profit of 30.512 billion yuan for the first half of the year, up 33.02% year-on-year[4] Stock Market Indices - The Nasdaq index closed at 21,129.67, up 0.15%[5] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 44,461.28, down 0.38%[5] - The S&P 500 index closed at 6,362.90, down 0.12%[5]

Core Viewpoint - Australia's 3-year government bond yields have continued to decline by 6 basis points due to weak employment data [1] Group 1 - The decline in bond yields indicates a response to economic indicators, particularly employment figures [1] - Weak employment data suggests potential economic slowdown, influencing investor sentiment towards government bonds [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant internal debate within the Federal Reserve regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation and the potential for interest rate cuts in response to upcoming inflation data [1][4][11]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Inflation - The Federal Reserve is divided on whether the costs associated with tariffs will justify maintaining high interest rates [1][3]. - The upcoming inflation data will be crucial in determining if tariffs will indeed push inflation higher and how the Fed will respond if inflation deviates from expectations [4][11]. - Recent changes, including a reduction in some extreme tariff increases and the extension of trade negotiations, have altered the landscape for inflation expectations [8][9]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Response Strategy - The Fed's strategy may shift based on inflation and employment data over the next few months, with a potential for interest rate cuts if economic indicators show weakness [3][16]. - There is a split among Fed officials, with some believing that inflation expectations could become unanchored, while others anticipate that rate cuts may be warranted later this year [9][12]. - Fed Chair Powell's recent comments suggest a more flexible approach, indicating that the current interest rates may have been temporarily raised to guard against tariff-induced inflation [14][15][17].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the recent decline in initial jobless claims in the U.S. has led to a temporary strengthening of the dollar, which in turn has pressured gold prices [2][3] - Initial jobless claims decreased by 5,000 to 227,000, marking the lowest level in two months and the fourth consecutive week of decline [2] - The rise in continuing claims to 1.97 million is the highest level since the end of 2021, suggesting difficulties for unemployed Americans in finding jobs [2] Group 2 - The U.S. dollar index reached a two-week high of 97.92, which negatively impacts gold prices as a stronger dollar increases the cost of gold for holders of other currencies [2] - The 10-year Treasury yield rose slightly to 4.352%, while the 30-year yield fell to 4.861%, influenced by strong employment data and inflation expectations [3] - Investors are advised to monitor the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on July 15, which will be crucial for assessing inflation pressures and Federal Reserve policy direction [3] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that gold is currently in a narrow trading range, with short-term moving averages flattening, suggesting a likely continuation of this trend [4] - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at $3,345 and $3,345, while support is noted at $3,317 [4]

Market Performance - The US stock market experienced strong performance on July 3, with all three major indices rising. The S&P 500 index increased by 51.94 points, or 0.83%, closing at 6279.36 points. The Nasdaq Composite index climbed 207.97 points, or 1.02%, ending at 20601.10 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 344.11 points, or 0.77%, closing at 44828.53 points. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices set new closing records, marking the S&P 500's seventh record close of the year and the Nasdaq's fourth record close of the year. Due to the public holiday, the US stock market closed early with relatively light trading volume [1]. Technology Sector - The technology sector was the main driver of the market's rise, with several leading tech stocks recording significant gains. Nvidia's stock price rose by 1.3%, reaching a historic high with a market capitalization of $3.89 trillion. The company briefly surpassed the $3.9 trillion market cap threshold, coming close to Apple's record for the highest global market capitalization. Amazon's stock increased by 1.59%, Microsoft by 1.58%, and Meta Platforms by 0.76%. Apple saw a 0.52% increase, while Alphabet rose by 0.5%. Tesla was an exception in the tech sector, closing down by 0.1% [3]. - Nvidia's strong performance was supported by multiple factors. OpenAI recently announced it would not adopt Google's TPU chips on a large scale and would continue to rely on Nvidia's GPUs and AMD's AI accelerators for its model training and inference work. OpenAI's reasoning was that these two chip manufacturers' products are "performance-validated" and have "existing supply agreements." This statement sent a positive signal to the market, indicating that Nvidia and AMD will remain core suppliers for OpenAI, potentially limiting Google's growth in the AI hardware market share [3]. Employment Data - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that June non-farm payrolls exceeded market expectations, providing significant support for the stock market. In June, non-farm employment increased by 147,000 jobs, far surpassing analysts' expectations of 110,000, representing a 33% increase. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, better than the expected 4.3%. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.2% month-over-month and increased by 3.7% year-over-year, indicating a moderate wage growth trend that helps alleviate inflationary pressures [4]. - Employment growth showed structural characteristics, with government sector employment increasing by 73,000 jobs, primarily driven by state and local education positions. Healthcare added 39,000 jobs, and social assistance increased by 19,000 jobs. The federal government saw a reduction of 7,000 jobs due to layoffs. Additionally, employment data for the previous two months was revised upward, with April's figures adjusted from 147,000 to 158,000 and May's from 139,000 to 144,000, totaling an upward revision of 16,000 jobs [4]. - The strong employment data impacted expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Before the data release, traders estimated a 25% probability of a rate cut in July. Following the report, market expectations for a short-term rate cut quickly diminished. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool indicated that the likelihood of a July rate cut fell to single digits, and the expectation for a 25 basis point cut in September decreased from 74% a week prior to 68% [4].

Employment Situation - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a job gain of +147K in June, exceeding the consensus estimate of +110K and the revised May figure of +144K [1][2] - The unemployment rate decreased to 4.1%, indicating a healthy labor market [1][2] Job Revisions - Revisions for the previous two months showed an increase, with May's job gain revised from +139K to +144K and April's from +147K to +158K, resulting in a total increase of +16K jobs over the past two months [3] Sector Analysis - The government sector contributed significantly to job gains in June with +73K, while the private sector saw mixed results, including a loss of -56K in Professional/Business Services [4][5] - Healthcare added +39K jobs and Social Assistance +19K, but traditional sectors like Leisure & Hospitality and Trade/Transportation/Utilities were absent from the report [5] Federal Reserve Implications - The strong jobs report may reduce the likelihood of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming FOMC meeting, potentially delaying any cuts until September [6] Jobless Claims - Initial Jobless Claims decreased to 233K from a revised 237K, which is below the expected 240K, indicating a moderation in the labor market concerns [7][8] - Continuing Claims remained stable at 1.964 million, suggesting that the labor market has not yet reached a critical threshold that would indicate weakness [8] Trade Balance - The U.S. Trade Deficit for May was reported at -$71.5 billion, aligning with expectations and showing improvement from the record low of -$138 billion in March [9]

美国强劲的6月份就业数据公布后，美元指数拉升，一度涨0.6%。 ...

美国国债2/10年期收益率曲线在就业数据公布后趋于平坦，最新差距为45.9个基点，此前为49.1个基 点。 ...