Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report anticipates that Shanghai Tin will fluctuate with a bullish bias, suggesting attention be paid to the range of 320,000 - 330,000 yuan/ton. The macro - economic situation shows the US "small non - farm" ADP improvement, and the Federal Reserve has "ample room" to cut interest rates. Fundamentally, the supply of domestic tin ore imports remains tight, processing fees are low, refined tin production is expected to be limited, and imports are likely to decline. On the demand side, downstream acceptance of high - priced goods is limited, and overall trading volume is low. Technically, the increase in positions and price rise indicates a warming of the bullish sentiment [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 322,630 yuan/ton, up 10,310 yuan; the 1 - 2 month contract closing price is - 770 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan. - The LME 3 - month tin price is 39,850 US dollars/ton, up 50 US dollars. - The main contract position of Shanghai Tin is 47,499 lots, up 4,075 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures is 753 lots, up 1,084 lots. - LME tin total inventory is 3,050 tons, down 25 tons; LME tin cancelled warrants are 260 tons, down 25 tons. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 6,865 tons, up 506 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of tin are 7,151 tons, down 86 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 316,700 yuan/ton, up 700 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 317,140 yuan/ton, up 1,550 yuan. - The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is - 5,930 yuan/ton, down 9,610 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 41 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars. - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 11,600 tons, up 2,900 tons [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 302,000 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan; the processing fee is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 306,000 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan; the processing fee is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 983.25 tons, down 518.38 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 203,370 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan. - The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1,245,400 tons, up 136,100 tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 222,600 tons, up 25,000 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - The US "small non - farm" ADP improved, with private enterprises adding an average of 4,750 jobs per week, ending four consecutive weeks of job losses. The Federal Reserve's October JOLTS job vacancies rose to a five - month high, but recruitment decreased and lay - offs reached a two - year high. - The Bank of Japan Governor hinted at future interest rate hikes "more than once". - Trump considered two candidates for the new Federal Reserve Chairman, and there were speculations about interest rate cuts and tariff adjustments [3].

Group 1 - The USD/CAD exchange rate is currently at 1.3853, showing a slight increase of 0.0001 from the previous trading day, with a fluctuation range indicating stability in the market [1] - Recent Canadian employment data exceeded expectations, reinforcing the Bank of Canada's strong policy stance, which supports the Canadian dollar [1] - Global trade concerns are affecting the Canadian export environment, limiting the appreciation potential of the Canadian dollar [1] Group 2 - The USD/CAD pair is experiencing a balance of forces, with key resistance at 1.3875 and support at 1.3800, indicating a potential range-bound movement [2] - Technical indicators suggest a market in a wait-and-see mode, with MACD convergence and RSI in a neutral zone [2] - Upcoming U.S. employment data and central bank policy decisions are expected to influence short-term volatility in the USD/CAD exchange rate [2]

两年期美债收益率涨3.59个基点，刷新日高至3.6105%，21:53刷新日低至3.5628%，职位空缺数据发布 时快速拉升大约4个基点。 【美债价格在美国职位空缺数据发布后显著下挫】周二（12月9日）纽约尾盘，美国10年期基准国债收 益率涨1.76个基点，报4.1819%，北京时间21:53刷新日低至4.1410%，随后在23:00发布美国职位空缺 （美联储青睐的就业数据）时快速拉升，美国财政部拍卖10年期美债之后一段时间刷新日高至 4.1859%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ICE Dollar Index experienced fluctuations, initially dropping to a low of 98.954 points before rising sharply after the release of favorable job vacancy data from the Federal Reserve, reaching a high of 99.312 points [1]. Group 1 - The ICE Dollar Index increased by 0.13% to close at 99.217 points [1]. - The Bloomberg Dollar Index rose by 0.03%, with a trading range of 1212.64 to 1215.70 points during the day [1]. - The significant movement in the dollar index occurred after the release of job vacancy data, indicating a positive market reaction [1].

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，12月5日消息，加拿大11月新增就业人数5.36万人，预期为减少0.25万人。 ...

北京时间周五(12月5日)亚盘时段，纸白银收复失地重新站上13.00上方，截至发稿，纸白银价格暂报 13.050元/克，上涨0.81%，前一交易日纸白银惨遭获利了结，给短期价格带来下行压力，目前来看，纸 白银盘内短线偏回升。 与此同时，交易员正等待延迟发布的9月PCE通胀数据，从中寻找美联储政策方向的关键信号。PCE数 据成为市场焦点，或影响12月降息路径PCE数据作为美联储最关注的通胀指标，将直接影响市场对12月 会议的预判。 若通胀高于预期，市场可能重新调整降息节奏，从而短期给银价带来下行压力；若通胀温和，则将为纸 白银带来反弹动力。市场普遍预期，美联储将在12月降息25个基点。 美国方面表示当前地区局势的和平谈判前景仍存在高度不确定性，使得市场避险需求维持在较高水位。 避险情绪的存在，使白银在强势收益率环境下依旧能够保持韧性。 【要闻速递】 美债收益率与就业数据抬升美元，短线压制纸白银价格。美国劳工部数据显示，截至11月29日当周的初 请失业金人数降至19.1万，低于前值21.8万，也明显低于市场预期的22万。 这一数据强化了美国劳动力市场韧性，推动收益率上升，同时提升美元表现，从而抑制纸白银上涨。 【 ...

贵金属日报 2025-12-04 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 面对就业数据的利多因素金银价格昨日未延续强势表现，哈塞特的"任命暗示"也令短期宽货 币的驱动因素出尽，当前金银策略上建议逐步了结在手多单，转入观望状态。沪金主力合约参 考运行区间 935-968 元/克，沪银主力合约参考运行区间 12639-14200 元/千克。 贵金属 贵金属研究 【行情资讯】 沪金跌 0.12 %，报 955.66 元/克，沪银跌 0.13 %，报 13600.00 元/千克；COMEX 金报 4238.50 美元/盎司，COMEX 银报 58.93 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率报 4.06%，美元指数报 98.87 ； 昨日所公布的美国经济数据分化，宽松货币政策预期对于贵金属价格的驱动已出现明显的边际 弱化，需要注意短期剧烈的价格回调风险。 美联储 12 月份议息会议前的最后一份就业报告表现偏弱，美国 11 月 ADP 就业人口数下降 3.2 万人，低于预期的新增 1 万人和 ...

Group 1 - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, as indicated by the recent ADP data, suggesting a potential deterioration in economic conditions [1] - There was a brief increase in yields, correlated with a rise in S&P futures, but this momentum was not sustained, leading to a separation in trends [2] - Overall, there has been a three basis points deterioration across all maturities, reflecting the impact of weak jobs data on the bond market [3] Group 2 - Japanese 10-year yields have reached a fresh high, indicating a significant movement in the bond market over the past 18 years [3]

Group 1 - The current state of the U.S. economy presents a paradox where stock indices like the Dow and Nasdaq are reaching new highs, while over 70% of Americans feel the economy is worsening [1][3] - The average price of new cars in the U.S. has surged to over $50,000, making it difficult for young graduates to afford vehicles, indicating a consumption driven by necessity rather than demand [3][5] - The median age for first-time homebuyers has risen to 40 years, reflecting a significant delay in home ownership compared to previous decades, which is exacerbated by rising living costs [5][7] Group 2 - Employment data shows a discrepancy, with September's non-farm payrolls adding only 119,000 jobs, and previous months' data being revised downward, raising concerns about the accuracy of employment statistics [9][11] - The AI boom has led to significant job cuts in the tech sector, with many programmers losing their jobs despite the stock market benefiting from AI investments, creating a disconnect between corporate profits and consumer spending [11][13] - Protests against AI data centers highlight public discontent, as local residents face rising utility costs without corresponding job opportunities, indicating a growing backlash against AI developments [13][15] Group 3 - The economic benefits are disproportionately favoring the baby boomer generation, while younger individuals struggle to contribute to retirement plans like 401(k)s, limiting their participation in stock market gains [15][16] - The current economic model appears to benefit a small segment of the population, raising questions about the sustainability and fairness of such growth, as it fails to improve the living standards of the majority [15][16]

Economic Indicators - The ICHI Composite Economic Index slightly declined this week but remains near the critical zone, influenced by the base effect from strong post-holiday recovery in previous weeks[1] - The Consumer Sentiment Index rebounded significantly, returning to the expansion zone, indicating enhanced resilience in demand[1] - The Investment Sentiment Index remained stable, reflecting a slight contraction due to the interplay of previous infrastructure investments and high base effects[1] Employment Trends - The unemployment rate for urban youth aged 16-24 (excluding students) in China decreased to 17.3% in October from 17.7% in September, showing the impact of manufacturing expansion and job creation policies[2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes promoting high-quality employment, focusing on structural and institutional improvements to alleviate structural unemployment[2] - Policies aim to enhance youth employment stability and labor participation rates through education reform and new employment forms[2] Global Economic Context - The Federal Reserve's current policy rate is between 3.75% and 4.00%, with inflation expected to return to 2% by 2026, indicating a prolonged process[7] - In September, the U.S. added approximately 119,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding market expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, reflecting signs of marginal weakness in the labor market[7]