华夏时报记者李凯旋北京报道 12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行，会议分析了当前经济形势，部署了2026年经济工作。其中，关于房地产，中央经济工作会议指出，着力 稳定房地产市场，因城施策控增量、去库存、优供给，鼓励收购存量商品房重点用于保障性住房等。深化住房公积金制度改革，有序推动"好房子"建设。 加快构建房地产发展新模式。 另外，业内认为，坚持内需主导、推动投资止跌回稳、清理消费领域不合理限制措施等内容也与房地产息息相关。 房地产是扩内需的关键 具体来看，此次中央经济工作会议明确了2026年经济工作的八项重点任务。其中，"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"居首。中指研究院方面对《华夏时 报》记者表示，房地产作为最大的内需之一，在扩大内需方面依然要发挥重要作用，预计2026年房地产政策将继续落实。 另外，在这一项任务中，中央经济工作会议指出，清理消费领域不合理限制措施。"预计住房领域不合理限制性措施将得到进一步优化调整，特别是北上 深等城市的限购政策，包括商办市场的限购政策均有优化空间。"中指研究院方面对《华夏时报》记者表示。 中央经济工作会议在"坚持内需"这一部分还指出，要推动投资止跌回稳，适当增 ...

具体来看，此次中央经济工作会议明确了2026年经济工作的八项重点任务。其中，"坚持内需主导，建 设强大国内市场"居首。中指研究院方面对《华夏时报》记者表示，房地产作为最大的内需之一，在扩 大内需方面依然要发挥重要作用，预计2026年房地产政策将继续落实。 另外，在这一项任务中，中央经济工作会议指出，清理消费领域不合理限制措施。"预计住房领域不合 理限制性措施将得到进一步优化调整，特别是北上深等城市的限购政策，包括商办市场的限购政策均有 优化空间。"中指研究院方面对《华夏时报》记者表示。 中央经济工作会议在"坚持内需"这一部分还指出，要推动投资止跌回稳，适当增加中央预算内投资规 模，优化实施"两重"项目，优化地方政府专项债券用途管理，继续发挥新型政策性金融工具作用，有效 激发民间投资活力，高质量推进城市更新。 国家统计局发布的数据显示，今年以来，全国房地产开发投资同比持续呈现下降状态，跌幅从年初的 9.8%扩大至前10月的14.7%。 上海易居房地产研究院副院长严跃进对《华夏时报》记者表示："当前，全国固定资产投资由正转负。 其中，房地产开发投资疲弱是重要拖累因素。后续，需围绕城中村危旧房改造、优质住房投资建设 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and service sectors [7]. Core Insights - The central economic work conference emphasizes the need to stabilize the real estate market, indicating that the task of "stabilizing the market" is ongoing and requires sustained efforts [2][3]. - Policies aimed at controlling new supply, reducing inventory, and optimizing supply will be further implemented in 2026, potentially supported by interest rate cuts [1][3]. - The report highlights the importance of product strength as a core competitive advantage for real estate companies to navigate through market cycles [1]. Summary by Sections Market Stability - The conference reiterates the importance of addressing issues in the real estate market as a key focus for risk mitigation in critical areas [2]. - The transition period for the real estate market is acknowledged, suggesting that stabilization will take time and require ongoing policy support [2]. Inventory Reduction - The conference introduces measures such as city-specific policies to control new supply and reduce inventory, encouraging the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing [3]. - The concept of "inventory reduction" is highlighted as a significant focus, marking its first mention since 2016, and aligns with previous discussions on optimizing housing policies [3]. Housing Fund Reform - The report discusses the deepening of housing provident fund reforms, which aim to enhance the efficiency of fund utilization and lower housing costs [4]. - Over 260 policies related to housing provident funds have been introduced since 2025, focusing on expanding coverage and easing usage conditions [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends real estate stocks with strong credit, location, and product quality, such as China Overseas Development and China Resources Land [5]. - Companies with robust operational capabilities that manage cash flow effectively during market adjustments are also highlighted, including Longfor Group and New Town Holdings [5]. - Local Hong Kong real estate firms benefiting from market recovery, such as Sun Hung Kai Properties, are recommended [5]. - Property management companies with stable cash flow and dividend advantages, like Greentown Service and China Resources Vientiane Life, are also suggested [5]. Key Company Recommendations - The report lists specific companies with target prices and investment ratings, including: - Wanwu Cloud (Buy, target price 32.29 HKD) [9] - Longfor Group (Buy, target price 15.21 HKD) [9] - Greentown China (Buy, target price 13.69 HKD) [9] - China Overseas Development (Buy, target price 19.08 HKD) [9] - Greentown Service (Buy, target price 6.56 HKD) [9] - Link REIT (Buy, target price 50.59 HKD) [9] - China Resources Land (Buy, target price 36.45 HKD) [9] - New Town Holdings (Buy, target price 18.90 HKD) [9] - China Jinmao (Increase, target price 1.81 HKD) [9]

刚刚闭幕的中央经济工作会议在部署明年的经济工作中，对房地产提出具体要求。相比去年，这一次房地产工作仍被放在"化解重点领域 风险"之列，字数不多，但政策目标、方向、工具都有新变化。 第一，政策目标有变化。去年提的目标是"持续用力推动房地产市场止跌回稳"，这一次则提出"着力稳定房地产市场"，从"推动止跌"变 为"着力稳定"，凸显政策决心，意味着政策核心趋向如何巩固住"稳"的态势。在这样的判断背后我们看到，前十一个月，开发投资虽然在下 降，但住房市场全面进入存量时代，全国二手房交易网签面积在交易总量中的占比达到了45%。与此同时，房价降幅在继续收窄，部分大中城 市一二手房交易总量同比在增长。所以，明年的政策目标核心是让市场"稳"得住。 第二，政策方向有变化。去年强调的是"合理控制新增用地""推进处置存量商品房"等，这一次则首次明确将"控增量、去库存、优供给"并 列作为核心方向，其中"优供给"是第一次出现的新词汇，意味着明年的政策是一套协同发力的"组合拳"，各地供地前要考虑好库存的问题，去 库存的同时还要把"民生保障"也考虑进来，同时还要优化供地市场的结构。 第三，政策工具有变化。这一次，公积金改革与"好房子"建设首 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was weak yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products declined significantly. The steel prices are expected to fluctuate within the bottom range. With the approaching winter storage, attention should be paid to winter storage policies and price guidance [1][2]. - The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate widely. Recently, there have been many disturbing news, so attention should be paid to the risk of price fluctuations [5]. - The overall attitude towards the black - building materials sector and domestic policies remains relatively optimistic. Future trends of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon are mainly led by the black - building materials sector and issues such as manganese ore price and electricity price [9]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to be weak, with support at 8100 - 8300 yuan/ton [12]. - The polysilicon market is in a state of tug - of - war between reality and expectation. The price is expected to fluctuate widely within a range after the monthly spread returns [15]. - For the glass market, a bearish view is recommended in the absence of unexpected changes [18]. - The soda ash market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend in the short term, and a cautiously bearish view is maintained [20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products 1. Rebar - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3069 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton (-1.53%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 40,679 tons, with no change. The main contract's open interest increased by 87,857 lots to 1.602075 million lots. The Tianjin aggregated price was 3160 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3270 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Views**: This week, the rebar production decreased significantly and the inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral - to - stable performance overall. The terminal demand remains weak, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate within the bottom range. Attention should be paid to winter storage policies and price guidance [1][2]. 2. Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3238 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan/ton (-1.34%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 109,014 tons, with no change. The main contract's open interest increased by 42,440 lots to 1.148348 million lots. The Lecong aggregated price was 3260 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3250 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Views**: The production of hot - rolled coils continued to decline, apparent consumption decreased slightly, and it was more difficult to reduce inventory. The factory inventory increased this week. The terminal demand remains weak, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate within the bottom range. Attention should be paid to winter storage policies and price guidance [1][2]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the iron ore main contract (I2605) was 757.00 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.56% (-12.00). The open interest decreased by 1378 lots to 468,100 lots. The weighted open interest was 894,100 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 781 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 72.41 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 8.73% [4]. - **Strategy Views**: Overseas iron ore shipments increased slightly in the latest period. The daily average pig iron production has fallen below 2.292 million tons. The port inventory continued to increase, and the steel mill inventory was recently depleted. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to the risk of price fluctuations due to many disturbing news [5]. Ferromanganese and Ferrosilicon 1. Ferromanganese (Silicomanganese) - **Market Quotes**: On December 11th, the main contract of ferromanganese (SM603) rose in the morning and then weakened in the afternoon, closing down 0.21% at 5712 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a conversion to the futures - equivalent price of 5890 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 178 yuan/ton over the futures price [8]. - **Strategy Views**: The supply - demand pattern of ferromanganese is still not ideal, but most of these factors have been factored into the price. Future trends are mainly influenced by the black - building materials sector and the price of manganese ore. Attention should be paid to possible sudden changes in the manganese ore market [9]. 2. Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes**: The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) rose more than 1% in the morning and then fell back, closing down 0.29% at 5418 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5560 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 142 yuan/ton over the futures price [8]. - **Strategy Views**: The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. Future trends are mainly influenced by the black - building materials sector and the electricity price. Attention should be paid to possible sudden changes in the manganese ore market [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon 1. Industrial Silicon - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract (SI2601) was 8285 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.42% (+35). The weighted contract's open interest decreased by 11,179 lots to 495,222 lots. The spot price of 553 non - oxygen - blown industrial silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main contract was 915 yuan/ton; the price of 421 was 9650 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis of the main contract was 565 yuan/ton after conversion [11]. - **Strategy Views**: The industrial silicon price is expected to be weak, with support at 8100 - 8300 yuan/ton. The production in Southwest China is expected to decline further in December, and overall demand is slightly weak [12]. 2. Polysilicon - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the polysilicon main contract (PS2605) was 55,765 yuan/ton, with a change of +2.13% (+1165). The weighted contract's open interest increased by 6228 lots to 265,208 lots. The average spot price of N - type granular silicon was 50 yuan/kg, unchanged; N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, unchanged; N - type re - feed material was 52.3 yuan/kg, unchanged, and the basis of the main contract was - 3465 yuan/ton [13]. - **Strategy Views**: The polysilicon production is expected to continue to decline in December, but the decline may be limited. The inventory accumulation pressure before the Spring Festival is difficult to relieve. The price is expected to fluctuate widely within a range after the monthly spread returns [15]. Glass and Soda Ash 1. Glass - **Market Quotes**: On Thursday at 15:00, the glass main contract closed at 964 yuan/ton, down 2.03% (-20). The North China large - plate price was 1050 yuan, unchanged; the Central China price was 1110 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 58.227 million boxes, down 1.215 million boxes (-2.04%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced 11,700 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 9059 short positions [17]. - **Strategy Views**: In November, many glass production lines were shut down for maintenance. The real - estate industry still has downward pressure, and a bearish view is recommended in the absence of unexpected changes [18]. 2. Soda Ash - **Market Quotes**: On Thursday at 15:00, the soda ash main contract closed at 1094 yuan/ton, down 2.76% (-31). The heavy - soda price in Shahe was 1113 yuan, up 9 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.4943 million tons, down 44,300 tons (-2.04%), including 790,500 tons of heavy - soda inventory, down 20,300 tons, and 703,800 tons of light - soda inventory, down 24,000 tons. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 61,727 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 56,952 short positions [19]. - **Strategy Views**: The overall supply pressure of soda ash is still large, and demand is relatively flat. The spot price has limited room for further decline. The 2.8 - million - ton capacity of the Alxa Phase II project is expected to put pressure on the market. The market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend in the short term, and a cautiously bearish view is maintained [20].

NO.1 中央经济工作会议强调着力稳定房地产市场 12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。会议确定，明年经济工作要抓好以下重点任务。其中 明确，坚持守牢底线，积极稳妥化解重点领域风险。着力稳定房地产市场，因城施策控增量、去库存、 优供给，鼓励收购存量商品房重点用于保障性住房等。深化住房公积金制度改革，有序推动"好房子"建 设。加快构建房地产发展新模式。积极有序化解地方政府债务风险，督促各地主动化债，不得违规新增 隐性债务。优化债务重组和置换办法，多措并举化解地方政府融资平台经营性债务风险。 点评：此次会议延续"稳市场、防风险"核心导向，"因城施策"精准把握不同城市供需差异，存量商品房 转保障性住房的举措，既助力去库存又完善住房保障体系。公积金改革与"好房子"建设指向品质升级， 房地产发展新模式的加快构建，将推动行业从高速增长向高质量发展转型。同时联动化解地方债务风 险，为房地产市场平稳运行筑牢制度保障。 NO.2 北京国有建设用地使用权及房屋所有权首次登记实现"全程网办" 12月11日，北京市规划自然资源委印发通知，将企业住宅类不动产首次登记时限压缩至3个工作日，非 住宅类压缩至2个工作日。该市同步 ...

【导读】2026年经济工作定调，专家解读中央经济工作会议 中国基金报记者 张玲 任子青 据新华社报道，中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行，总结2025年经济工作，分 析当前经济形势，部署2026年经济工作。 受访专家表示，会议对今年以及整个"十四五"时期我国经济表现和政策效果给予肯定，提出 明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进。在宏观政策、扩大内需、新质生产力等多重驱动下，明年我 国经济将实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长，实现"十五五"良好开局。 我国经济顶压前行、向新向优发展 会议指出，今年是很不平凡的一年。我国经济顶压前行、向新向优发展，现代化产业体系建 设持续推进，改革开放迈出新步伐，重点领域风险化解取得积极进展，民生保障更加有力。 中信证券首席经济学家明明表示，会议首先对今年以及整个"十四五"时期我国经济表现和政 策效果予以了肯定。尽管面临多重压力，但我国经济顶压前行、向新向优发展，"十四五"即 将圆满收官，第二个百年奋斗目标新征程实现良好开局。 会议还指出，必须以苦练内功来应对外部挑战。明明认为，这既体现了直面外部冲击与挑战 的"实事求是"的态度，又展现出"以我为主"的大国自信。在"十五五"时期，我 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes a positive policy orientation, focusing on "stability while seeking progress" and "quality improvement and efficiency enhancement" [1][2] - The conference highlights the importance of stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, introducing new expressions such as "flexible and efficient" monetary policy tools [1][2] - The meeting indicates that macroeconomic policies will be more proactive and effective to achieve "qualitative improvement and reasonable growth" [2][3] Group 2 - The conference stresses "quality improvement and efficiency enhancement," repeatedly mentioning high-quality development across various sectors [3][4] - It aims to integrate traditional and innovative policy tools to promote high-quality economic growth while maintaining reasonable growth rates [3][5] - The focus on high-quality development reflects a higher demand for development quality and efficiency, especially as 2026 marks the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan [3][4] Group 3 - The meeting prioritizes "domestic demand" as the main driver for economic growth, indicating a shift towards relying more on domestic consumption [4][5] - This approach is in response to the anticipated decline in export growth due to external factors, such as high tariffs from the U.S. [4][5] - The conference plans to expand the supply of quality consumer goods and services, fostering new consumption growth points [4][5] Group 4 - The conference reiterates the commitment to a proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, emphasizing policy coordination [5][6] - It highlights the need for comprehensive use of fiscal, monetary, industrial, and employment policies to enhance economic support [6][7] - The focus is on maintaining necessary fiscal deficits while addressing local fiscal difficulties and ensuring stable monetary policy [6][7] Group 5 - The meeting emphasizes the importance of innovation-driven growth and the cultivation of new economic drivers [7][8] - It includes plans for developing a comprehensive education and technology talent development strategy and establishing international technology innovation centers [7][8] - The shift from "project-driven" to "systematic construction" in technology policy aims to improve the sustainability of technology investments [7][8] Group 6 - The conference signals support for the real estate market, focusing on stabilizing the market and addressing risks in key areas [8][9] - It encourages policies to stabilize the real estate market and improve financing channels for affordable housing [8][9] - The emphasis on resolving local government financing platform debt risks indicates a shift in focus towards managing operational debt [8][9] Group 7 - The meeting underscores the importance of maintaining openness to foreign trade and investment, balancing domestic and international priorities [9][10] - It aims to enhance the quality of foreign trade and expand bilateral investment cooperation [9][10] - The strategy includes high-quality development of the Belt and Road Initiative, reflecting a proactive approach to international economic engagement [9][10]

新华社12月11日消息，中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。 会议强调，做好明年经济工作，要实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性，持续 扩大内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量，因地制宜发展新质生产力，纵深推进全国统一大市场建 设，持续防范化解重点领域风险，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，推动经济实现质的有效提升 和量的合理增长，保持社会和谐稳定，实现"十五五"良好开局。 要点一：加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度 会议指出，明年经济工作在政策取向上，要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效 应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，提升宏观经济治理效能。 申万宏源证券首席经济学家赵伟预计，后续政策更加注重财政与货币、总量与结构、存量盘活与增量优 化的协同发力，通过强化政策协同与存量增量联动，实现稳增长与提质增效的双重目标。 明年政策节奏值得关注。国金证券首席经济学家宋雪涛认为，如果外部环境相对平稳，则以用好存量政 策空间为主；如果外部环境发生变化，更大力度的增量政策可以相机而动。 要点二：保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量 会议指出，要继续实施更加积极的财政政策。保持必要的 ...

今年国家对于房地产生产极其重视，其中化解存量房成为一项重要的工作。不过从经济学角度，如果在一个弱市的市场，信心还没有恢复，还没有建立起 来，忽然冲入了巨大的抛盘，有无可能市场稳定的信心又一次被打击，楼市真的能迎来稳定吗？ 之前几年，国家花费了巨额的资源，化解一些房地产商烂尾房的风险，在2025年初显成效，楼市买卖力量慢慢平衡下来，同时乐观的看到有可能在年底迎 来初步的稳定。谁能想到，银行也开始卖房子了，而且量还非常大，例如最近报道的四川农信挂牌2.4万套房产，紧接着吉林银行、天津银行、中原银行 等多家银行纷纷跟进，齐刷刷亮出"卖房"招牌。 银行开始直接在网络平台直销卖房子了，而且而不是通过传统的模式，由法院进行拍卖，然后回收款项。这也显示了银行要回收现金流的渴望，房产的范 围也是广阔，这也表明过去不少年头，不少银行掌握了越来越多的房产资源，现在开始倾巢而出，这不就是冲击楼市吗？对于房地产的稳定有何好处呢？ 随着房地产市场的遇冷，全国的各地房产价格都有持续的下滑。银行眼中视为优质的贷款抵押物，包括商业房产以及住宅房产，价值都在不断的下滑。在 这种情况下，银行也不敢继续持有这一些资产，以防存货跌价损失越来越大。于 ...