证 券 研 究 报 告 有色金属行业周报（20251229-20260102） 推荐（维持） 金属供给刚性逻辑持续，期待春季躁动下表现 观点：我们建议关注春季躁动行情下电解铝的弹性和红利属性。从基本面看， 本周全球铝安全库存总体仍维持低位，海外项目因电力问题减产预期在持续发 酵，未来 2-3 年全球供需或维持紧平衡，库存或维持低位对铝价形成支撑。从 金融属性看，本周国内外铜铝比虽然环比上周有所回落，但依然维持历史高位， 铝补涨空间仍存，考虑美国当前铝面临高升水，若未来缺电逻辑造成美国地区 减产，铝上涨弹性或更强，静待春季躁动行情叠加铜铝比修复带来的铝价弹性。 我们持续看好电解铝红利属性，我们预计本周电解铝行业平均利润提升至 6000 以上，预计未来电解铝利润有望维持高位。从分红意愿看，因为这几年 电解铝企业总体进入现金流持续修复和盈利稳定性提升的阶段，并且由于行业 未来资本开支强度较低，上市公司普遍具备提高回馈股东的能力和意愿，红利 资产属性逐步凸显，看好电解铝行业弹性和红利属性。 观点：我们认为公司 2025 年业绩符合预期，公司作为全球矿业龙头，核心金 属稳步扩张，预计公司 2025 年 Q4 实现归母净 ...

来源：中泰证券 报告摘要 一、A 股： 【市场走势】本周A 股市场表现分化，主要宽基指数涨跌不一。上证指数微涨0.13%，但深证成指、创 业板指和北证50 均有所下跌，其中北证50 跌幅最大，下跌1.55%。 风格指数方面，中盘价值和小盘成长表现较好。行业方面，综合金融、石油石化和国防军工领涨，而商 贸零售、电力及公用事业、食品饮料跌幅居前。成交额方面，本周日均成交额为2.1 万亿，环比上涨 15.16%。 【深入剖析】本周为2025 年最后一个交易周。受节假日资金撤出影响，本周创业板等高弹性板块整体 承压。结构方面，近期商业航天板块不断迎来催化。2025 年12 月31 日，上交所官网信息显示，蓝箭航 天空间科技股份有限公司（蓝箭航天）科创板IPO申请获受理，正式冲刺科创板"商业火箭第一股"。受 各种催化影响，A 股卫星与商业航天板块持续占优。 【预期展望】展望A 股市场，预计在政策利好和产业创新的驱动下，市场结构性机会将持续显现。数字 经济、汽车产业链、AI 应用以及商业航天等新兴科技领域有望获得更多关注。在长线资金不断涌入带 来的流动性支持下，本轮"春季躁动"行情或提前启动。建议投资者关注具备技术创新优 ...

Market Performance - As of December 31, 2025, the North Exchange A-shares had a total of 288 stocks with an average market capitalization of 3.019 billion yuan[19] - The North Exchange 50 Index fell by 1.55% during the week of December 29 to December 31, closing at 1,440.43 points[19] - The average daily trading volume for North Exchange A-shares was 19.439 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.74% from the previous week[19] New Stock Listings - The new stock Hengtong Light (stock code: 920045.BJ) was listed on December 31, 2025, with a revenue of 1.625 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 91.38%[3][27] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Hengtong Light was 224 million yuan, up 123.75% year-on-year[3][27] Investment Insights - The North Exchange's price-to-earnings (PE) ratios as of December 31, 2025, were 45.85 for A-shares, 43.62 for the ChiNext, 13.08 for the Shanghai Main Board, 23.21 for the Shenzhen Main Board, and 75.12 for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board[4][28] - The report suggests focusing on technology sectors such as robotics, AI, commercial aerospace, and smart driving during the "spring market rally" period[4][28] Risks - Potential policy risks may affect investor enthusiasm and market heat[5][29] - Liquidity risks exist due to lower trading volumes compared to other boards like the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and ChiNext[5][29] - Earnings may not meet expectations due to external market changes, impacting stock prices negatively[5][29]

策略研究 · 策略周报 元旦假期事件梳理及 A 股展望 2026 年 1 月 4 日 核心观点 分析师 杨超 ：010-80927696 ：yangchao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522030004 王雪莹 ：（010）80927721 ：wangxueying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130525060003 相关研究 2025-12-28，节奏看"水"，集中靠"质"——2026 年港股市场投资展望 2025-12-11，2025 年 12 月中央经济工作会议对投资 的启示：向新向优 2025-12-08，12 月中央政治局会议对投资的启示 2025-11-22，变局蕴机遇，聚势盈未来——2026 年 A 股市场投资展望 2025-11-06，A 股三季报业绩有哪些看点？ 2025-10-30，公募基金三季度持仓有哪些看点？ 2025-10-30，2025 年 11 月投资组合报告："十五五" 新蓝图与市场新机遇 2025-10-29，变局蕴机遇，驶向新蓝海——《"十五 五"规划建议》解码 A 股投资全景图 2025-10- ...

A-share Market Insights - The market is expected to transition from "consolidation" to "spring rally" as the year-end approaches, with high-quality A-share assets offering attractive value globally [1][2] - Key investment directions include: 1) long-term opportunities in technology growth assets, 2) cyclical sectors with strong pricing power driven by supply-demand imbalances, and 3) blue-chip assets favored by long-term institutional investors [2] Hong Kong Market Insights - The influx of southbound capital is accelerating, providing solid financial support for the Hong Kong market [2] - The easing of US-China trade tensions is likely to boost market risk appetite, while the anticipated December interest rate cut and balance sheet expansion by the Federal Reserve will enhance global liquidity, benefiting Hong Kong stocks [2] US Market Insights - Despite stable earnings projections for US stocks in 2025, valuation and market concentration have returned to historical highs, indicating potential for increased volatility [2] - Earnings growth in 2026 is expected to continue, driven by sustained AI demand, reduced tariff risks, and accommodative monetary and fiscal policies [2] - Investment strategies may focus on two main themes: 1) ongoing narratives in technology stocks, particularly in AI, and 2) recovery opportunities in cyclical sectors, especially in midstream manufacturing and essential consumer goods [2] Domestic Bond Market Insights - The domestic bond market is entering a phase characterized by "weak economic recovery, stable yet easing policies, and central bank caution against excessive moves" [3] - The central bank's commitment to maintaining stable interest rates will limit the downward movement of long-term rates, leading to a range-bound market [3] - Investors are advised to shift focus from capital gains to coupon income and liquidity management, while closely monitoring potential signals from the central bank regarding long-term yield guidance [3] Commodity Market Insights - The ongoing anti-involution policies warrant attention to the actual implementation of capacity reduction measures [4] - Oil prices are under short-term pressure due to geopolitical tensions easing and OPEC+ shifting towards supply expansion [4] - Industrial metals are expected to see demand recovery driven by improved global economic growth forecasts, with supply-side disruptions likely to reshape the supply-demand landscape [4] - Gold's monetary attributes may continue to be favorable amid ongoing government leverage, particularly in the US, where long-term deficit rates are challenging to reduce [4]

早上好，先来关注下国际市场。 1月2日，美股三大指数集体高开，道琼斯指数涨0.19%，标普500指数涨0.58%，纳斯达克综合指数涨1.03%。费城半导体指数大幅高开，阿斯麦涨超7%， 盘中创历史新高；美光科技涨近6%；AMD涨超4%。 中概股集体大涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数暴涨4%，百度涨11.35%，富途控股涨6.84%，哔哩哔哩涨6.87%，网易涨6.77%，老虎证券涨5.54%，36氪涨 4.85%，房多多涨4.79%，蔚来涨4.64%，阿里巴巴涨4.55%，霸王茶姬涨4.47%，腾讯控股ADR涨4.30%，新东方涨4.15%，微博涨3.82%，爱奇艺涨 3.39%，理想汽车涨3.01%，高途涨3.02%，贝壳涨2.79%，迅雷涨2.82%，京东涨2.34%。 截至收盘，美股三大指数涨跌不一，纳指高开低走，收跌0.03%，标普500指数微涨0.19%，道指涨0.66%。明星科技股表现分化，阿斯麦涨近9%，美光科 技涨超10%，二者股价均创历史新高。AMD涨超4%，英伟达涨超1%，谷歌微涨；特斯拉、微软跌超2%，亚马逊跌近2%，Meta跌超1%，苹果微跌。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨4.38%，本周累涨2. ...

Group 1 - The ChiNext index experienced a decline of 1.2%, while the ChiNext Mid 200 index fell by 0.04% and the ChiNext Growth index decreased by 1.3% [1] - In 2025, the ChiNext index achieved a cumulative increase of 49.6%, outperforming broader market indices [1] - The latest scale of the ChiNext ETF (159915) has exceeded 100 billion yuan, making it the largest among ChiNext-related ETFs [1] Group 2 - China Galaxy Securities indicates that the A-share market is entering a critical window for cross-year layout as 2026 approaches, with attention on potential market movements around New Year's Day [1] - The year 2026 marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," and the release of policy dividends is expected to be relatively early, with structural opportunities concentrated in sectors aligned with policy guidance and industry prosperity [1] - There is an anticipation of a spring market rally in the future [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the expectation of a spring market rally in 2026, driven by policy dividends and structural opportunities in line with the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] - The China Securities A500 ETF (159338) has seen a net inflow of nearly 15 billion yuan over the past 20 days, indicating strong investor interest [1] - The A500 index, which the ETF tracks, selects samples from leading companies across various industries, reflecting a balanced representation of market capitalization and industry distribution [1] Group 2 - Compared to the CSI 300, the A500 index emphasizes industry balance and leading companies, providing a better beta base during industrial upgrades [2] - As of December 30, 2025, the A500 index has increased by 465.87% since its base date, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 363.28%, resulting in an excess return of 102.59% [2] - The number of accounts for the Guotai CSI A500 ETF is three times that of its closest competitor, indicating a strong preference among investors for this ETF [2]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.09% to 3968.84 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.58%, the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.23%, and the Sci-Tech Innovation Index decreased by 0.36% [1] - The total market turnover was 2.07 trillion yuan, a decrease of 956 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - Over 2700 stocks declined, indicating a neutral to weak risk appetite in the market [1] ETF Market Performance - By the end of 2025, China's ETF market reached a size of 6.03 trillion yuan, an increase of over 60% from 3.73 trillion yuan at the beginning of the year [2][9] - The number of ETFs increased to 1396, up by 350 from 1046 at the start of the year, with over 90% of ETFs achieving positive returns and over 60% outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [2][9] - The top-performing ETF for 2025 was the Communication ETF (518800), which saw a year-to-date increase of 125.81% [2][9] Sector Highlights - The Mining ETF (561330) ranked third in overall ETF performance for the year, with a growth of 106.11%, driven by global liquidity easing and investments in new energy and power grids [2][10] - The CSI A500 index has gained traction as a new benchmark for Chinese equities, representing a balanced mix of traditional value and emerging growth sectors [3][10] - The CSI A500 index-related ETFs have approached a total size of 300 billion yuan, reflecting its growing popularity among investors [3][10] Future Outlook - The market anticipates a spring rally in 2026, coinciding with the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan, with structural opportunities expected to align with policy guidance and industry prosperity [4][11] - Investors are encouraged to consider the CSI A500 ETF (159338), which has the highest number of accounts among its peers, as a means to access leading companies across various sectors [4][11] Bond Market Insights - The bond market remains weak, with the 10-year government bond ETF (511260) showing minimal fluctuations [12] - The year 2025 has been characterized by a complex environment for interest rate bonds, with expectations for a more optimistic bond market pricing in 2026 [5][12] - The decoupling of the bond market from fundamentals may ease as speculative funding's pricing power diminishes [6][13]

Research Views - The stock index is expected to continue oscillating within the range established since October. The third - quarter cumulative year - on - year revenue growth rate of CSI 1000 is about 2.6%, which supports its current valuation and reduces the risk of liquidity. The Spring Rally may be less intense this year due to the lack of necessary conditions [1]. - The bond market is expected to remain strong in the short term. The central bank will maintain a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026 but will be cautious about interest rate cuts. The bond market's oscillating pattern is difficult to change [1][2]. Price Changes Stock Index Futures | Variety | 2025 - 12 - 30 | 2025 - 12 - 29 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH | 3,035.4 | 3,038.0 | - 2.6 | - 0.09% | | IF | 4,622.2 | 4,610.2 | 12.0 | 0.26% | | IC | 7,381.0 | 7,336.6 | 44.4 | 0.61% | | IM | 7,459.2 | 7,439.0 | 20.2 | 0.27% | Stock Indexes | Variety | 2025 - 12 - 30 | 2025 - 12 - 29 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE 50 | 3,036.6 | 3,034.6 | 1.9 | 0.06% | | CSI 300 | 4,651.3 | 4,639.4 | 11.9 | 0.26% | | CSI 500 | 7,458.9 | 7,430.6 | 28.3 | 0.38% | | CSI 1000 | 7,597.3 | 7,594.2 | 3.1 | 0.04% | Treasury Bond Futures | Variety | 2025 - 12 - 30 | 2025 - 12 - 29 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS | 102.49 | 102.48 | 0.01 | 0.01% | | TF | 105.82 | 105.84 | - 0.025 | - 0.02% | | T | 107.94 | 107.98 | - 0.035 | - 0.03% | | TL | 111.83 | 111.82 | 0.01 | 0.01% | [3] Market News - The Shanghai Composite Index oscillated within a narrow range throughout the day, while the ChiNext Index showed relatively stronger performance. There were 1,734 rising stocks, 65 daily limit - up stocks, and 3,306 falling stocks. The Shanghai Composite Index closed slightly lower, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.49%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.63% [1][4]. - The liquid - cooled server concept stocks, AI intelligent agent concept stocks, and robot concept stocks performed actively. The commercial aerospace concept stocks first rose and then fell. PEEK materials, consumer electronics, and digital currency sectors led the gains, while Hainan, retail, photovoltaic wind power, and shipping port sectors led the losses [4]. Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - The report provides charts of the trends and basis of IH, IF, IM, and IC contracts, including their closing prices over time and the relationship between futures and spot prices [6][7][8][9][10]. Treasury Bond Futures - Charts show the trends of treasury bond futures contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis of different - tenor treasury bond futures, inter - period spreads, inter - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][14][15][16][17][19]. Exchange Rates - The report presents charts of the central parity rate of the US dollar and euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates of the US dollar against the RMB, the US dollar index, euro - US dollar exchange rate, pound - US dollar exchange rate, and US dollar - Japanese yen exchange rate [23][25][27][29][31].