Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - Domestic commodity futures showed significant divergence in performance from October 13 to October 17, with precious metals, black metals, and base metals leading gains, while energy, chemicals, and agricultural products experienced collective declines [1] - In the energy and chemical sector, fuel oil fell by 5.54% and crude oil by 6.34% for the week; in the black metal sector, iron ore dropped by 3.02%, while coking coal and coking coke rose by 1.55% and 0.57%, respectively [1] - Precious metals saw substantial increases, with Shanghai gold rising by 10.90% and Shanghai silver by 10.53% [1] Group 2: Oil Market Dynamics - The oil market faced multiple bearish pressures, with WTI crude futures falling below $80 and Brent crude near $82 per barrel; domestic crude oil prices dropped by 12.41% over the week [2] - OPEC+ continued its production increase plan, adding 137,000 barrels per day, while U.S. shale oil production showed resilience, slightly increasing to 13.636 million barrels per day [2][3] - Demand weakened significantly, with U.S. refinery utilization dropping by 6.7 percentage points to 85.7%, and Chinese refinery utilization at a low of 81.23% [2] Group 3: Pork Market Trends - Domestic live pig futures continued to decline, with the main contract dropping 3.87% to a three-month low, driven by slow trading sentiment and increased outflow from large-scale farms [4] - The supply side remains robust, with the number of breeding sows at 40.38 million, indicating a sufficient long-term supply base [4][5] - Despite expectations for improved demand due to cooler temperatures, actual sales of pork have not met expectations, leading to continued price pressure [4] Group 4: Economic Indicators - In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.3% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.3%, with core CPI rising by 1.0% [6][7] - The decline in CPI was primarily driven by a 4.4% drop in food prices, which accounted for a significant portion of the overall decrease [6] - The export growth rate for September was 8.3%, with a cumulative growth of 6.1% for the first three quarters, indicating a recovery in trade despite challenges with U.S. exports [10][11]

Group 1 - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange's crude oil futures closed up by 0.34%, reaching 441.1 yuan per barrel [1] - The main contract for gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 1.27%, settling at 974 yuan per gram [1] - The main contract for silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 3.94%, closing at 11,748 yuan per kilogram [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, with sufficient arrival of imported soybeans and abundant inventories of soybeans and soybean meal, the weak pattern of soybean meal is hard to change, and attention should be paid to the evolution of the trade side. As aquaculture enters the off - season, downstream purchasing and sales are weak, and it will run weakly in the short - term [31]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the global soybean supply is loose, and the continuous upward momentum of the soybean series is limited [32]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Main Feed and Aquaculture Futures and Spot Price Trends - Futures: The closing price of the M2601 soybean meal futures contract on October 16, 2025, was 2907 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton from the previous week, a decrease of 1.09%. The RM601 rapeseed meal futures contract was 2364 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.92%. The C2601 corn futures contract was 2111 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.26%. The LH2601 live pig futures contract was 11905 yuan/ton, up 310 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.67%. The JD2511 egg futures contract was 2818 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.85% [4]. - Spot: The spot price of 43% protein soybean meal in Shandong on October 16, 2025, was 2920 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous week, a decrease of 0.34%. The rapeseed meal price in China was 2500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.96%. The price of second - class national standard corn with 14.5% moisture in Bayuquan Port was 2150 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.38%. The average出栏 price of commercial pigs in Henan was 11.21 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.09%. The average price of eggs in the main producing areas in China was 2.93 yuan/kg, down 0.04 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.35% [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Information - Cost - side: In the US Midwest, most areas had good weather this week, which was conducive to harvesting. US soybean crushing data was strong. In September, the US soybean crushing volume reached 197.863 million bushels, a 4.2% increase from August and an 11.6% increase from September 2024. Brazil planned to export 2.153936 million tons of soybeans, 672,337 tons of soybean meal, and 1.8898 million tons of corn in the week of October 12 - 18. Argentina's 2024/25 soybean production was expected to be 51.1 million tons, and the 2025/26 soybean planting area was expected to be 17.5 million hectares, a 2.8% decrease from the previous year [8]. - Supply - side: In September 2025, China's soybean imports were 12.869 million tons, a 4.8% month - on - month increase and a 13.2% year - on - year increase [8]. - Demand - side: The domestic soybean crushing volume remained at a high level overall and entered a seasonal downward phase in October. As of the week of October 10, the domestic major oil mills' soybean crushing volume was 1.29 million tons [8]. - Inventory: In the 41st week of 2025, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills increased, the soybean meal inventory decreased, and the unexecuted contracts increased [8]. 3.3 Supply - side - Import - As of October 16, the CNF price of imported Brazilian soybeans was 481.00 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton from the previous week. The CNF price of imported soybeans from the US West was 444.00 US dollars/ton, an increase of 8 US dollars/ton from the previous week [16]. 3.4 Supply - side - Pressing - As of the week of October 16, the soybean crushing profit was - 123.30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25.20 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of the week of October 10, the weekly soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.2365 million tons, a decrease of 1.0255 million tons from the previous week. As of October 10, the operating rate of domestic soybean oil mills was 57%, a recovery of 36 percentage points from the previous week [22]. 3.5 Inventory - side - As of October 17, the port inventory of imported soybeans was 7.1882 million tons, an increase of 0.6085 million tons from the previous week, and it was at a medium level in the past five years. As of October 10, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 1.0467 million tons, a decrease of 0.1061 million tons from the previous week, and it was at a relatively high level in the past five years [24]. 3.6 Demand - side - As of September 5, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in domestic mainstream oil mills was 40,500 tons, a decrease of 130,600 tons from the previous week, and it was at a low level in the past five years [29]. 3.7 Strategy Recommendation - The strong US soybean crushing data overshadowed export concerns, and CBOT soybeans rebounded from the low level. Under the pressure of supply, domestic double - meal continued to decline. The US government's continuous shutdown led to a lack of export sales and supply - demand data, and the market sentiment remained cautious. After the festival, domestic oil mills resumed operation quickly, but the downstream replenishment enthusiasm was poor, resulting in slow inventory reduction of soybean meal. The market is closely watching whether the policy of imposing special port fees on US ships will affect soybean ships. The rapeseed meal market shows a pattern of both supply and demand being weak. The low operating rate of oil mills leads to a tight overall supply of rapeseed meal in the spot market. As the temperature gradually drops, aquaculture enters the off - season, and the overall market trading is light, with mainly rigid demand procurement [31].

Core Insights - Domestic futures market shows mixed performance with major contracts experiencing both gains and losses [2] - SC crude oil and low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) saw declines exceeding 1%, while the shipping index (European line) increased by over 3% [2] - Notable increases were observed in live pig, polysilicon, and Shanghai gold, each rising by more than 1% [2] Group 1: Market Performance - The main contracts in the domestic futures market exhibited varied trends, with some rising while others fell [2] - SC crude oil and LU fuel oil both dropped more than 1%, indicating a bearish sentiment in these sectors [2] - The shipping index (European line) experienced a significant increase of over 3%, suggesting strong demand or supply chain improvements [2] Group 2: Sector Highlights - Live pig prices rose by over 1%, reflecting potential supply constraints or increased demand in the agricultural sector [2] - Polysilicon prices also increased by more than 1%, which may indicate a positive outlook for the renewable energy sector [2] - Shanghai gold saw a rise exceeding 1%, possibly driven by market reactions to economic conditions or inflation concerns [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the performance of commodity futures, with crude oil futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropping by 4.55% to 445 yuan per barrel [1] - The main gold contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 0.42%, reaching 913 yuan per gram [1] - The main silver contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 1.37%, settling at 11,059 yuan per kilogram [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - After the holiday, the sentiment in the chemical market was poor, and soda ash followed the sector with weak fluctuations. During the domestic long - holiday, soda ash production facilities had narrow adjustments, with individual companies having short - term shutdowns, resulting in a narrow decline in supply. Downstream demand was mediocre, and overall purchasing enthusiasm was low, with limited fundamental drivers. Given the fundamental situation of oversupply, it is expected that the short - term soda ash futures market may continue to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the progress of the second - phase capacity release of Yuanxing and the restocking situation of downstream enterprises [7][8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract行情**: On October 9, 2025, the soda ash futures fluctuated downward. The opening price of soda ash 2601 (SA601) was 1256 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1268 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1237 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 1250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan/ton or 1.73% from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 756,000 lots, a decrease of 27,000 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 1,317,000 lots, an increase of 67,000 lots from the previous day [2] - **Variety Price**: The opening, highest, lowest, and closing prices of different soda ash futures contracts on October 9, 2025, are provided, including soda ash 2609, soda ash 2601 M, and soda ash 2605 [4] 3.2 Spot Market - On October 9, 2025, the domestic soda ash spot market quotes are presented in a price summary table, but the specific prices in the table are not detailed in the text [5] 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry Chain - Related**: On October 9, 2025, the spot price of 5.00mm large - size glass in North China was reported at 1230 yuan/ton [6] - **Fundamental - Related**: As of October 9, 2025, the total domestic soda ash inventory was 1.6598 million tons, an increase of 59,900 tons compared to before the holiday. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 739,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 42,400 tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 920,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17,500 tons [6] 3.4 Market Outlook - Due to the fundamental situation of oversupply, the short - term soda ash futures market is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the progress of the second - phase capacity release of Yuanxing and the restocking situation of downstream enterprises [8]

Group 1 - Domestic futures main contracts showed a mixed performance with more declines than gains in early trading [1] - Jujube prices increased by over 2%, while peanuts, coke, and industrial silicon rose by more than 1% [1] - On the downside, live pig prices fell by over 2%, and other commodities such as silver, rapeseed meal, eggs, and urea dropped by more than 1% [1]

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On September 26, the three major A-share indices all pulled back. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.65%, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.76%, and the ChiNext Index declined 2.60%. The trading volume of the two markets exceeded 2.1 trillion yuan, a decrease of over 200 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - The CSI 300 Index encountered resistance and fluctuated on September 26, closing at 4550.05, down 43.44 from the previous day [2] Coke and Coking Coal - On September 26, the weighted index of coke was weak, closing at 1710.3, down 48.5 from the previous day [3] - The weighted index of coking coal trended weakly on September 26, closing at 1207.0 yuan, down 32.4 from the previous day [4] - For coke, port spot prices rose, with the price at Rizhao Port up 10 yuan/ton. Supply - rising coking coal prices increased costs for coke enterprises, squeezing profit margins, but production enthusiasm remained. Demand - steel mills' overall operation remained high, and rigid demand for coke increased as holidays approached, but terminal consumption was average with steel inventory accumulation, so overall restocking was expected to be limited [5] - For coking coal, prices in some regions changed. Supply - most mines in production areas operated normally, traders were actively buying, demand was good, and coal mine shipments were smooth, with online auctions generally showing an upward trend [5] Zhengzhou Sugar - Last Friday, ICE raw sugar futures fluctuated slightly and closed slightly higher. Due to the approaching long holiday, both long and short positions reduced to avoid risks, and the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract fluctuated and closed slightly lower in the night session on September 26. As of the week ending September 23, speculators increased their net short positions in ICE raw sugar futures and options by 22,260 contracts to 168,357 contracts [5] Rubber - Due to market concerns about the impact of tariffs on the European auto industry and the holiday effect, long - position liquidation pressured Shanghai rubber futures to fall on September 26. As of September 26, Shanghai Futures Exchange's natural rubber inventory decreased by 8852 tons to 187,972 tons, and futures warehouse receipts decreased by 5500 tons to 149,420 tons. The inventory of 20 - grade rubber decreased by 1713 tons to 47,982 tons, and futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1611 tons to 42,942 tons [6] Palm Oil - On the night of September 26, palm oil futures continued to trade in a narrow range, with prices rebounding slightly from the daytime close but still within the daytime price range. The main contract P2601 closed with a small positive K - line, at 9278, up 0.45% from the daytime close. From September 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit area decreased by 3.19% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.18% month - on - month, and production decreased by 4.14% month - on - month [6][7] Soybean Meal - Internationally, on September 26, CBOT soybean futures fluctuated. Argentina resumed the export tax on grains and by - products after a two - day suspension. Brazil's ANEC lowered the estimated soybean exports for September from 7.53 million tons to 7.15 million tons. Domestically, on September 26, the main soybean meal M2601 contract closed at 2937 yuan/ton, down 1.01%. Chinese buyers actively ordered Argentine soybeans, improving the long - term supply situation. Currently, the arrival of imported soybeans in China is still high, and the soybean crushing volume of major oil mills has remained above 2.3 million tons for four consecutive weeks, resulting in a large output of soybean meal. In the short term, soybean meal supply is abundant [7] Live Hogs - On September 26, live hog futures trended weakly. The main LH2511 contract closed at 12,575 yuan/ton, down 0.87%. Currently, production capacity is being released intensively, with group farms accelerating the slaughter of standard hogs and individual pig farmers more willing to sell. Traditional demand is approaching the peak season, and pre - holiday stocking enthusiasm has increased, but market consumption has not met expectations and is not enough to strongly support prices [8] Shanghai Copper - The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has been strengthening, and the US dollar index has declined. China will implement more active consumption - expansion policies, and with the arrival of the traditional consumption peak season, the outlook for the copper industry has improved, with downstream copper product production expected to pick up significantly, and refined copper demand may increase significantly. In terms of inventory, with positive consumption expectations and the development of power and new energy industries, the previously accumulated social inventory may gradually decrease, and copper prices are expected to rise [8] Iron Ore - On September 26, the main iron ore 2601 contract fell 1.74% to close at 790 yuan. Iron ore shipments decreased while arrivals increased, and pig iron production remained high. As pre - holiday restocking nears the end, steel mills' purchasing pace has slowed down, and the upward space for iron ore may be limited. In the short term, iron ore prices will fluctuate [8] Asphalt - On September 26, the main asphalt 2511 contract rose 0.7% to close at 3450 yuan. Asphalt production capacity utilization increased month - on - month, social inventory continued to decline, while refinery inventory pressure increased, and shipments continued to rise. In the north, pre - holiday construction rush still supports demand to some extent, but in the south, heavy rainfall has weakened demand. In the short term, asphalt prices will fluctuate [9] Logs - On September 26, the 2511 log contract opened at 806, with a low of 805, a high of 810, and closed at 808.5, with a reduction of 668 lots. The futures price rebounded above the 10 - day moving average of 805. Pay attention to the support at the 800 mark and the resistance at 815 - 820. Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, with a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and spot trading is weak. Pay attention to spot prices during the peak season, import data, inventory changes, and market sentiment [9] Cotton - On the night of September 26, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 13,400 yuan/ton. Cotton inventory decreased by 186 lots from the previous day. The price of machine - picked cotton is between 6.15 - 6.5 yuan per kilogram [10] Steel - Recently, typhoons in South China and the upcoming double - holiday have affected construction site demand. However, as the weather cools down, steel demand may recover after the holiday. Since mid - September, there have been many market rumors, causing the futures price to rise rapidly, but now there is a lack of further upward momentum. Recently, rebar production has resumed, so there is still pressure on steel prices. If downstream demand recovers more than expected in October, steel prices may rise further. The "15th Five - Year Plan" content will also affect the futures price. Pay attention to peak - season demand, coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [10] Alumina - Due to the rainy season in Guinea, bauxite shipments remain low, which is reflected in the domestic arrival data. Northern Chinese bauxite mines have not resumed production, and only some compliant capacities are expected to resume by the end of the year due to environmental protection policies. Although bauxite inventory has decreased slightly, the absolute inventory is still high, and bauxite supply is still abundant. Meanwhile, the weakening alumina price has increased the price - cutting intention of alumina plants. In the short term, bauxite prices may remain weakly volatile. The core factor leading the alumina price is still oversupply. Currently, domestic operating capacity remains high, and recently imported alumina from overseas has arrived in large quantities, increasing inventory and causing prices to fall both at home and abroad. In the short term, the price may trend weakly [11] Shanghai Aluminum - Fundamentally, the supply of alumina, the raw material, is still excessive, and the spot price is close to the cost line and at a low level. Electrolytic aluminum plants have good profit margins and are enthusiastic about production. On the supply side, previously replaced capacity projects have gradually been completed and put into operation, and with the release of new capacity, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has increased slightly again, and high - level operation may lead to a slight increase in domestic electrolytic aluminum supply. On the demand side, positive consumption - expansion policies have improved the outlook for aluminum product consumption, and the improvement of downstream production will boost aluminum demand. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai aluminum may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and rising demand [11]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market in China showed mixed performance during the night trading session on September 26, with various commodities experiencing different price movements [1] Group 1: Commodity Performance - Gold futures increased by 0.32% [1] - Silver futures rose by 1.19% [1] - Crude oil prices went up by 0.61% [1] - Rubber futures saw a gain of 0.49% [1] Group 2: Declines in Other Commodities - Copper futures decreased by 0.33% [1] - Nickel futures fell by 0.23% [1] - Iron ore prices dropped by 0.82% [1] - Coking coal futures declined by nearly 2% [1] - Glass futures experienced a decrease of 0.48% [1]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on September 23, 2025 - A-shares: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.18% to 3821.83, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.29% to 13119.82, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.21% to 3114.55. The trading volume in the two markets reached 2494.4 billion yuan, an increase of 372.9 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - Indexes: The CSI 300 Index closed at 4519.78, down 2.83 [2]. 2. Futures Market 2.1 Coking Coal and Coke - Price: The weighted index of coke closed at 1734.4, down 10.4; the weighted index of coking coal closed at 1229.0 yuan, down 10.7 [3][4]. - Factors: For coke, the third - round price cut is still expected, while some coking plants start the first - round price increase. The overall inventory is increasing, and traders' purchasing willingness has improved. For coking coal, the output of coking coal mines has increased slightly, the pre - National Day replenishment sentiment is strong, and the total inventory has increased [5]. 2.2 Zhengzhou Sugar - Price: Affected by factors such as the decline of US sugar and the possible reduction of spot quotes, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract fluctuated lower on Tuesday and rebounded at night [5]. - Supply: Based on the current crop growth, India's sugarcane production in the 2025/26 season may reach about 487 million tons, an 8% increase from the previous season, and the total sugar production is expected to increase 18% to 34.9 million tons [5]. 2.3 Rubber - Price: Shanghai rubber fluctuated slightly on Tuesday, with natural rubber being weak and 20 - number rubber being slightly stronger. It rose slightly at night due to the increase in crude oil prices [6]. - Production: In August 2025, China's rubber tire outer tube production was 102.954 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. From January to August, the production increased 1.6% to 7.95467 billion pieces [6]. 2.4 Soybean Meal - Price: The M2601 main contract of soybean meal closed at 2928 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.49% [8]. - Supply - demand: The supply of imported soybeans in China is sufficient, the oil mills maintain a high operating rate, and the inventory is rising. The price is expected to be weak under the supply pressure [8]. 2.5 Live Pigs - Price: The LH2511 main contract of live pigs closed at 12665 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.02% [8]. - Supply - demand: The supply of standard pigs increased significantly in September, and the market supply pressure is large. Although the pre - festival stocking enthusiasm has increased, the consumption has not reached the expected level, and the price may remain weak [8]. 2.6 Palm Oil - Price: The P2601 main contract of palm oil closed at 9054, a decline of 3.27%. The highest price was 9294, and the lowest was 8946 [9]. - Production: An Indonesian state - owned palm oil producer aims for a crude palm oil production of 415,000 tons in 2025 and 1.07 million tons in 2026 [9]. 2.7 Shanghai Copper - Price: Affected by macro and supply - demand factors, the price is under pressure. The inventory is rising, and the spot basis premium has narrowed to 60 points [9]. - Factors: The macro - level policies are not releasing more positive signals, and the Fed's internal differences increase market uncertainty. The supply is tightened due to a mine shutdown, but the demand is still cautious [9]. 2.8 Cotton - Price: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13580 yuan/ton at night on Tuesday, and the inventory decreased by 181 lots [10]. - Export: From January to August 2025, China's cotton product export volume was 4.9341 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.49%, but the export value decreased 4.95%, and the unit price dropped 13.11% [10]. 2.9 Logs - Price: The 2511 contract opened at 808, closed at 805, with a daily reduction of 362 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged [10]. - Market: The supply - demand relationship has no major contradictions, and the market is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality [10]. 2.10 Iron Ore - Price: The 2601 main contract of iron ore fell 1.23% to 802.5 yuan [11]. - Supply - demand: The shipment decreased, the arrival increased, and the steel mills have pre - festival replenishment demand. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [11]. 2.11 Asphalt - Price: The 2511 main contract of asphalt fell 1.2% to 3373 yuan [12]. - Supply - demand: The capacity utilization rate decreased slightly last week, the inventory continued to decline, and the shipment increased. The price will fluctuate in the short term [12]. 2.12 Alumina - Price: The ao2601 contract closed at 2877 yuan/ton [12]. - Supply - demand: The supply - demand contradiction is difficult to resolve, and the expected supply expansion suppresses the price. The price may fluctuate around the cost line [12]. 2.13 Shanghai Aluminum - Price: The al2511 contract closed at 20685 yuan/ton [12]. - Supply - demand: The downstream peak - season characteristics are not obvious, but the consumption willingness is expected to improve. The price is looking for a bottom in the range [12]. 2.14 Steel - Price: The rb2601 contract closed at 3155 yuan/ton, and the hc2601 contract closed at 3340 yuan/ton [13]. - Supply - demand: The supply is weak and the demand is increasing, but the downstream has not improved. The price will fluctuate under the game of multiple factors [13].