格隆汇9月10日｜随着强劲的企业盈利和对人工智能的热情再度升温推动美股创下纪录高位，华尔街分 析师正争相上调对标普500指数的预期。德意志银行策略师宾基·查达将其对这一美国基准指数的年终目 标上调至7,000点，意味着从当前水平还有逾7%的上涨空间。巴克莱银行的分析师也上调了预测，而富 国银行证券团队预计，到明年年底标普500将再上涨11%。"市场确实有些泡沫，但只要人工智能资本支 出保持不变，牛市就应会延续。"富国银行的Ohsung Kwon表示。今年4月，在特朗普宣布大规模全球关 税后，他们曾大幅下调预测；随后，随着特朗普缓和贸易言论，他们又重新转向看多。查达此次将目标 上调近7%，他表示，关税对通胀的直接影响预计已有一半反映在数据中。他还认为，投资者仓位、好 于预期的经济增长以及美元走弱都将为股市提供支撑。 ...

牛市领涨主线之外，哪些行业值得关注？20250909 摘要 券商和信创软件在 25 年第一季度表现不佳，机器人板块则相对强势， 表明前期强势板块回调期不一定能保持强势，概率仅为 55%。 历史数据显示，中期表现行业在回调期间若出现超额收益，则在新一轮 上涨波段中跑赢大盘的概率高达 70%。 建议关注化工、有色金属（非黄金和稀土）及新能源相关化工方向，以 及周期板块和工程机械等价值板块，这些板块近期表现出超额收益。 化工板块经历三年格局出清，目前处于复苏前端或出清末端，具备投资 潜力。 市场对 2026 年 PPI 回正交易的预期较高，居民存款支撑指数牛市，基 本面催化因素包括 PPI 回正、居民消费复苏和地产反转。 PPI 回正大概率发生在今年年底或明年年初，预示周期风格将受益，未 来 6 个月以上对周期风格持乐观态度。 若当前主线回调走弱，后续跑赢大盘概率为 1/3；前期中等偏下行业回 调期若有超额收益，后续增长波段跑赢概率为 4/5。周期风格或在 2026 年表现较好，建议提前再平衡。 Q&A 当前市场结构的主线如何切换？有哪些观察指标？ 高低切和坚守主线并不是最优解，因为市场并非二元对立。正确的答案是某 ...

九月首周，A股市场宽幅震荡，接下来行情将如何表现？ 智通财经搜集了10家券商的观点，大部分券商认为，上周市场的调整本质上是技术性调整，健康且必 要，支撑本轮行情的核心逻辑并没有发生变化，波动是为了更好地向上，可淡化市场波动。 中国银河表示，上周市场的调整，本质上是技术性调整，持续上涨累积了较多获利盘与解套盘。本次调 整是健康的调整，也是必要的调整。近期市场处于较热状态但不极端，这是慢牛过程中的回调，不是上 涨行情的结束，即所谓牛市多长阴。 "短期市场调整消化性价比矛盾，且调整阶段市场仍保持了一定热度，叠加新的结构性行情，演绎依然 非常有弹性。脉冲式调整后，市场至少是有机会的震荡市。市场节奏减慢，更要充分理解牛市纵 深。"申万宏源证券指出。 兴业证券进一步指出，短期的波动更多在于节奏和结构，支撑本轮"健康牛"的核心逻辑并没有发生任何 变化，波动是为了更好地向上。 操作方面，浙商证券提醒投资者，虽然从中长线视角看，政策、资金、情绪等因素依然支持"系统 性'慢'牛"健康运行，但大盘短期出现的双向波动并未完全结束，近期仍有震荡整理的需求，部分大热 板块产生"虹吸效应"，在演绎极致行情的同时也伴随着波动风险。 "因此， ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the overall market conditions in China, focusing on the capital market, economic structure changes, and specific industries such as real estate, energy, and chemicals. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Stability and Bullish Outlook** The domestic economic structure is positively changing, with a decrease in risk-free interest rates driving capital into the market, stabilizing the capital market. The short-term bullish logic remains unchanged, and the mid-term outlook is still positive [1][3][5]. 2. **Risks to the Bull Market** Major risks include regulatory tightening and tensions in US-China relations. However, the current regulatory approach is focused on risk prevention, and no significant risks from US-China relations have been observed, making the overall risk manageable in the short term [4][5]. 3. **Market Adjustment Reasons** Recent market adjustments were primarily due to weak narratives around rising stocks, with profit effects narrowing to specific sectors like AI computing. This extreme concentration in a few stocks necessitates a structural adjustment in trading [6]. 4. **Investment Directions** Suggested investment areas include: - **Anti-involution related industries**: Such as photovoltaic, chemicals, and petrochemicals, which are expected to benefit from policy support and capacity clearing [7]. - **Growth opportunities**: Focus on sectors like AI and innovative pharmaceuticals, which have strong industry trends [7]. - **Hong Kong stock opportunities**: Benefiting from the improvement in domestic fundamentals [7]. 5. **Impact of US Tariff Exemptions on Strategic Metals** The US has exempted certain strategic metals from tariffs, highlighting their importance in technology and defense. China, being a major producer of antimony and molybdenum, is expected to see price increases due to supply-demand imbalances [10][11]. 6. **OPEC+ Production Increase** OPEC+ has agreed to increase production in October 2025, indicating a shift from price maintenance to market share preservation. This is expected to lead to a gradual loosening of global oil supply-demand balance, with Brent crude prices potentially dropping below $60 [12][13]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Real Estate Market Recovery** Recent policies in Shenzhen, such as lifting purchase restrictions, are expected to improve market conditions, similar to previous experiences in Shanghai and Beijing [2][29]. 2. **Chemical Industry Recovery** The chemical industry is showing signs of recovery due to supply-side reforms and seasonal demand increases, particularly during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [14][15]. 3. **Coal Market Dynamics** The coal market is experiencing a price decline after reaching a peak, with expectations of a bottom around 650 RMB. Government policies are aimed at stabilizing prices and reducing overproduction [20][21]. 4. **Steel Industry Challenges** The steel industry is facing self-imposed production cuts and regulatory measures aimed at reducing overproduction. However, demand is expected to improve as the market transitions from off-peak to peak seasons [24][25]. 5. **Future of Energy Sector** The energy sector, particularly coal and storage, is expected to see gradual growth in the coming years, driven by changing supply-demand dynamics and policy support [46][47]. 6. **Aviation and Shipping Industries** The aviation sector is projected to achieve significant profitability in the upcoming peak season, while the shipping industry is expected to benefit from increased demand due to OPEC+ production adjustments [35][38]. 7. **Regulatory Environment for Express Delivery** Recent price increases in the express delivery sector are expected to alleviate competitive pressures, with a focus on maintaining profitability as the e-commerce peak season approaches [39]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into market trends, risks, and investment opportunities across various sectors.

廖市无双：短期波动已经安然度过了吗？20250907 摘要 近期市场走势如何，投资者应如何看待当前的市场波动？ 人民币汇率自 7 月中旬以来对美元呈现升值趋势，受益于美联储加息周 期接近尾声和美国经济数据疲软，预计汇率走强将对权益市场形成支撑， 系统性慢牛行情或将更加明显。 中长线看好股市前景，以上证指数自 2015 年高点下跌后的反弹 0.618 计算，目标位在 4,132 点。然而，近期市场波动增大，需警惕短线双向 波动压力。 上证指数在 3,731 点附近获得支撑，与 21 年顶部相吻合，并落在 20 日 均线与中线上升趋势线之间，可能成为本轮调整底部，是潜在买入机会。 创业板指数虽表现较强，但成交量下降，显示潜在卖压增加，短期调整 尚未结束，9 月份可能面临波动放大风险，需保持谨慎。 当前市场风格偏向大盘成长，行业板块中电力与新能源表现突出，但需 注意资金在高位硬科技板块和新能源板块间的轮动，以及固态电池等概 念炒作风险。 建议逢低加仓，增加金融板块配置，减少科技板块配置。关注大金融、 地产和重资产基建等相对稳定且具备较好中长期投资价值的领域。 当前市场最强风格仍为大盘成长，与基金重仓风格高度相关。高 ...

Key Points - The article summarizes significant events over the weekend and the latest assessments from major securities firms regarding the market outlook and investment strategies [1][13]. Group 1: Major Events - Yi Huiman, Vice Chairman of the Economic Committee of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, is under investigation for serious violations of discipline and law [3]. - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for the 10th consecutive month, with foreign exchange reserves exceeding $3.3 trillion as of the end of August [4]. - New regulations on public fund sales fees are expected to reduce annual sales expenses by approximately 30 billion yuan, a decrease of 34% [5][6]. - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for August recorded only 22,000 jobs, leading traders to increase bets on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [7]. - Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced his resignation, citing a desire to avoid party division [9]. - Shenzhen has relaxed housing purchase restrictions in eight districts to better meet residents' housing needs [10]. Group 2: Securities Firms' Assessments - CITIC Securities notes three liquidity characteristics in the market, including a shift in ETF fund flows and a potential return to core asset investments as the market stabilizes [14]. - Shenwan Hongyuan emphasizes the ongoing bull market atmosphere, suggesting that the market will continue to see structural opportunities, particularly in technology and energy sectors [15]. - Guojin Securities indicates that the market is likely to remain in a sideways trend, with a focus on power equipment and non-ferrous metals for future opportunities [16]. - China Merchants Securities believes the recent market adjustment is part of an upward trend, recommending investments in AI computing, solid-state batteries, and high-quality growth sectors [18]. - Zhongxin Jian Investment highlights that the current market is in a consolidation phase, with a focus on sectors like new energy and innovative pharmaceuticals [19]. - Dongfang Caifu suggests that A-shares may experience a period of volatility, while Hong Kong stocks could see increased attractiveness due to U.S. interest rate expectations [20]. - Huaxi Securities maintains that the "slow bull" market remains intact, supported by long-term capital inflows and favorable policies [21]. - Zhongtai Securities sees the recent A-share adjustments as temporary, with potential catalysts on the horizon that could boost market sentiment [22]. - Xinda Securities believes that despite increased volatility, the main upward trend of the bull market remains unchanged [23]. - Industrial Securities emphasizes the importance of structural adjustments in the market, advocating for a diversified investment approach [24].

申万宏源研报称，牛市氛围不容易消失的判断正在验证。短期市场调整消化性价比矛盾，但调整阶段， 市场仍保持了一定热度。而新的结构行情，演绎依然非常有弹性。脉冲式调整后，市场至少是有机会的 震荡市，等待新催化、新主线指数再上台阶。市场节奏减慢，更要充分理解牛市纵深。时间已经是牛市 的朋友，核心是随着时间的推移，高景气方向会不断增加 + 居民增配权益的通道会更加顺畅，这对应 着后续胜率和赔率都会再提升。基本面只是短期新亮点有限，但中期景气方向会不断增加；性价比只是 短期性价比偏低，但中长期性价比远未极端；资金供需只是阶段性流入过快，但中长期存款搬家可能还 在底部区域。本轮牛市慢下来，确实会更好。 ...

Group 1 - The impact of retail and industrial capital on bull and bear markets is greater than that of institutional capital. Historical data shows that retail capital has larger fluctuations, with annual inflows reaching 1.5-2.5 trillion yuan during bull markets, while institutional capital peaks at 500-700 billion yuan, often misaligned with market trends [2][3][8] - Retail capital inflows are gradually increasing, with evidence that seasoned investors tend to enter the market earlier and stronger than smaller investors. The number of new accounts has been rising for three consecutive months, indicating a potential bullish trend [4][13][14] - Industrial capital outflows have increased but remain significantly lower than levels seen from 2020 to 2022. Current IPO financing is recovering but still below the 2019-2022 levels, suggesting that the intensity of industrial capital inflows has not yet reached the levels typical of late bull markets [16][17][18] Group 2 - The current assessment indicates that September's volatility has increased slightly but does not alter the overall bullish trend. The market is expected to enter a main upward wave, with structural profit-making effects observed for nearly a year [18][19] - Recent market changes show that most A-share indices have declined, with significant movements in sectors such as electrical equipment and non-bank financials. The market's performance is influenced by concentrated trading in specific sectors, which may lead to adjustments [26][30] - The report suggests a shift in investment strategy, recommending a focus on non-bank financials, electric equipment, and non-ferrous metals, while also highlighting the potential for cyclical stocks to perform well under current conditions [24][25]

Group 1 - The fund market is experiencing a surge in activity, with 38 new funds launched in the first week of September, attracting a total of 27.5 billion yuan, primarily in equity products [1][2] - A notable highlight is the launch of the "Zhaoshang Balanced Optimal Fund," which achieved over 8.7 billion yuan in subscriptions on its first day, making it the first non-initiated active equity fund to sell out in one day this year [2][3] - Investor interest in the A-share market has increased, as evidenced by a rise in inquiries about market dynamics and fund allocation advice, indicating a recovery in investor confidence [1][6] Group 2 - The performance of equity funds has significantly improved, with 34 equity funds launched in a short span, raising 24.3 billion yuan, which constitutes over 88% of the total new fund issuance [2][3] - The number of new funds launched in the third quarter has reached a peak not seen since 2022, with 404 new funds initiated, and 93 funds opting for early closure due to high demand [3][4] - Some high-performing existing funds have had to impose purchase limits due to overwhelming inflows, such as the Yongying Technology Smart Selection Fund, which reduced its daily purchase limit from 1 million yuan to 10,000 yuan [4][5] Group 3 - Market sentiment remains optimistic, driven by the upward trend in the A-share market and supportive policies, although there are differing views among institutions regarding the sustainability of this sentiment [6][7] - Analysts suggest that while there is a positive outlook, caution is advised due to the accumulation of risks in the micro-structural level of the market [7][8] - The "AI+" sector has emerged as a key focus, with significant trading activity, while other thematic sectors have seen limited opportunities this year [8]

Market Insights - The rapid increase in turnover rate often indicates rising short-term adjustment pressure in the market, with historical experience showing that high turnover rates during mid-bull market phases can lead to temporary pullbacks, which do not alter the long-term trend but instead accumulate momentum for subsequent rises [1][11] - Since the end of June, the TMT sector's congestion level rose to over 40% by the end of August, nearing the early-year peak, indicating that the trading volume in the computing power sector of the ChiNext board is also approaching its early-year peak [1][15] - The liquidity supply-demand pattern remains favorable compared to the 2019-2021 period, with significant IPO fundraising in July exceeding 230 billion, although it dropped to around 30 billion in August, reflecting a lower financing scale compared to the previous bull market [1][19][21] Industry Rotation - Historical bull markets have shown that various sectors experience rotation, with the TMT sector being a clear leader from 2013 to 2015, followed by sectors like "Belt and Road" and financials taking over at different times [2][24] - The 2019-2021 bull market also witnessed multiple sectors taking turns in leading the market, with consumer stocks, electronics, and new energy sectors showing significant performance at different times [2][26] - From the current point until the end of the year, a rotation in leading styles is expected, particularly as Q4 approaches, which has historically seen an acceleration of incremental capital entering the market [2][32] Domestic Manufacturing Insights - The manufacturing PMI for August showed a marginal increase to 49.4%, indicating a slight recovery in production activities, although it remains in the contraction zone [3][33] - The non-manufacturing PMI also rose to 50.3%, with the service sector showing improvement while the construction sector experienced a decline [3][35] - Upstream price indices are recovering, with the main raw material purchase price index rising to 53.3%, indicating a positive trend in the supply side [3][35][38] International Employment Trends - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for August fell significantly short of expectations, with only 22,000 new jobs added compared to the anticipated 75,000, reinforcing expectations for a potential interest rate cut in September [4][14] - The unemployment rate in the U.S. rose to 4.3%, indicating a cooling labor market, which may influence global economic conditions [4][20] Industry Configuration Recommendations - Investment themes are suggested to focus on three directions: breakthroughs in technology AI, economic recovery with a focus on strong sectors, and the continued rise of undervalued stocks [5][32] - The report emphasizes the importance of the Hang Seng Internet sector, suggesting that as the bull market progresses, funds may increasingly concentrate on fewer high-growth sectors while also considering the potential for cyclical stocks to perform well as fundamentals improve [5][32]