Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current bullish market sentiment and the potential for a "slow bull" rather than a "crazy bull," emphasizing the importance of rationality and understanding market dynamics to avoid pitfalls in investing [1]. Market Volatility - Market fluctuations are normal, and investors should respect market rules and avoid being swayed by emotions. The concept of "Mr. Market" illustrates that stock prices can deviate from intrinsic values in the short term, but will eventually revert to their true value [5]. - Investors should remain calm and rational, avoiding emotional reactions to market movements. The article highlights the dangers of impulsive trading based on fear or greed, advocating for a focus on identifying strong companies and waiting for the right opportunities [6]. Investment Principles - Investing should be done with spare money that does not affect one's quality of life. The article warns against a gambler's mentality, where investors risk all their assets in hopes of quick wealth, which can lead to stress and poor decision-making [7]. - The article categorizes household assets into four types: money for expenses, money for safety, money for growth, and money for preservation. It emphasizes the importance of maintaining sufficient cash for living expenses [8]. Market Behavior - The article cautions that a bull market does not guarantee profits and warns against chasing trends and frequent trading. It cites Graham's observation that bull markets can lead to losses for ordinary investors due to overconfidence and impulsive actions [10]. - A-shares are characterized by a predominance of retail investors, which amplifies market volatility and can lead to herd behavior. The number of retail investors has surpassed 240 million, with retail holdings accounting for about 28% of the market capitalization [11]. Cognitive Awareness - Investors must change their mindset and avoid making decisions based on rumors or superficial information. Understanding the fundamentals of the market, including economic indicators and company performance, is crucial for successful investing [12]. - The article emphasizes the importance of investing within one's capability and knowledge. It suggests that investors should either engage directly in stock trading if experienced or rely on professional fund managers if they lack the time or expertise [13]. Risk Management - Diversification is essential to mitigate non-systematic risks. The article advises against concentrating investments in a single asset or sector, promoting a balanced portfolio across various asset classes [14]. - Investors should maintain a long-term perspective and not let short-term market fluctuations alter their investment beliefs. Focusing on companies with long-term growth potential is key to achieving better returns [16]. Emotional Discipline - The article discusses the "disposition effect," where investors tend to sell winning stocks too early and hold onto losing ones. It encourages focusing on fundamental analysis rather than succumbing to short-term market pressures [17]. - Investors should avoid "selective attention," which leads to a biased view of the market. A comprehensive evaluation of market conditions and company performance is necessary for informed decision-making [18].

今天是大寒节气，杭州开始飘雪，意味着进入冬天最冷的时间。A股也在持续降温，特别是前期爆炒板 块所在的双创指数跌幅较大。 生产队今天继续干活，在沪深300ETF、科创50ETF、创业板ETF、上证50ETF、中证500ETF等几只宽基 上抛售，统计了一下，1月15日以来4个交易日，生产队在上述主要宽基的抛售金额大约分别是1100亿、 1300亿、800亿和700亿，累计达到3900亿，当然，库存还有很多。 今天市场风格转回老登板块，房地产、银行和消费板块走好。上午央行维持LPR不变，不过在今天的发 布会上，国家发改委继续强调要实施更积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，CPI和PPI实现双回升， 这个对顺周期是利好，离春节不到一个月了，市场对消费板块的预期开始升温，值得关注。 这个不必担心，牛市一旦起来，趋势的力量是强大的，更何况有基本面的支持。类似的，熊市的趋势也 很强大，2024年9月底之前，生产队数次增持，指数还是不断下跌。预计本周接下来抛售的规模会逐渐 降低，因为爆炒股连续跌停，融资盘和成交量都下来了，创业板即将触及30日线，降温的目的差不多达 到了。 打击市场违规炒作的查处还在进行，昨天证监会浙江监管局 ...

（责任编辑：张晓波 ） 自由现金流ETF（159201）及其联接基金（A：023917；C：023918）紧密跟踪国证自由现金流指 数，经流动性、行业、ROE稳定性筛选后，选取自由现金流为正且占比高的股票，指数质地高，抗风险 能力强，适合底仓配置，满足长线投资配置需求。基金管理费年费率为0.15%，托管费年费率为 0.05%，均为市场最低费率水平，最大程度让利投资者。 每日经济新闻 1月20日早盘，截至11:20，自由现金流ETF（159201）盘中涨0.08%，成分股南山铝业、卫星化 学、福斯达等领涨，涨幅超5%。资金净流入方面，自由现金流ETF（159201）近10个交易日有8个交易 日获资金净流入，合计"吸金"超6.28亿元。自由现金流ETF（159201）最新份额达77.5亿份，最新规模 达98.34亿元，均创成立以来新高。 机构认为，"慢牛"预期升温，侧重业绩基本面。近期市场呈现加速走强、主题炒作升温、部分板块 与个股"局部过热"的情况，监管层开始加强市场逆周期调节，向市场明确传达出推动市场理性、稳健运 行的信号。中长期来看，在居民储蓄资产入市、"反内卷"改善业绩、新一轮科技产业革命下，目前A股 市 ...

银价格，又爆了！ 昨天，随着国际金价和银价一路飙升并双双再度创下历史新高，贵金属再次成为市场的焦点。 那么，本轮贵金属"牛市"背后的深层逻辑是什么？2026年是"盛宴的尾声"还是新周期的起点呢？下面我们就一起来看看。 去年以来，贵金属市场可以说是"牛气冲天"——黄金领涨，白银后来居上，上演了一场"接力赛"。 2025年，纽约期金和伦敦金现货累计上涨超70%，沪金期货上涨近65%；纽约期银及伦敦银现货累计上涨超170%，沪银期货上涨超155%。 而今年开年以来，金银价格的走势也持续强劲。 昨天（1月19日），国际黄金期货价格一度飙升至每盎司4698美元的历史最高点，现货黄金也站上4690美元。 02宽松货币政策的催化 比黄金更为耀眼的是白银的涨幅。伦敦现货白银价格一举突破每盎司94美元，自今年开年以来已累计飙升31%，创下自1983年以来最强劲的新年开局。 | < 白 | | | 伦敦银现 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SPTAGUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | | | 93,131 | | 昨结 | 9 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Trends - The U.S. initial jobless claims fell to 198,000, the second-lowest level in two years, indicating a strong labor market and increasing the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates at 3.50%-3.75% on January 28 [3][4] - The strong employment data has led to a stronger U.S. dollar, while gold prices have retreated from a high of $4,630, and oil prices have dropped over 4.8% due to a combination of geopolitical easing and a strong dollar [3][4] Group 2: AI Investment Insights - TSMC announced a capital expenditure plan of $56 billion, signaling confidence in AI's integration into daily life, which has shifted market sentiment regarding AI investments [4][5] - The narrative around AI investments has evolved from speculative storytelling to a focus on actual orders and demand [4] Group 3: Sector Performance - Financial stocks and traditional sectors are experiencing a resurgence, with notable gains in hardware and infrastructure companies like Applied Materials (AMAT) and ASML, which saw stock prices rise over 5% [5][6] - Nvidia (NVDA) maintains a market capitalization of $4.5 trillion, while storage chip giant SanDisk (SNDK) has achieved a cumulative increase of 72.4% this year, outperforming the S&P 500 [5][6] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The capital markets are witnessing a revival in trading activity, as evidenced by strong earnings reports from Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, driven by a surge in M&A and trading business [9] - Broader sectors such as industrials, energy, and consumer staples have outperformed the market, with gains exceeding 5.5%, and the Russell 2000 index has risen 8% year-to-date [9]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index stabilized on Monday, closing up 0.29% at 4114.00 points, with a trading volume of 27.325 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.243 billion yuan compared to last Friday [1]. Industry Insights - The gas turbine industry is currently experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with significant order growth from the global top three gas turbine manufacturers [1]. - The downstream applications for gas turbines include power generation, petrochemicals, and transportation [1]. - Recent successful evaluations of several gas turbine innovation development demonstration projects by the National Energy Administration highlight advancements in this sector [1]. Investment Competition - The 82nd "Digging Gold" competition, organized by the Daily Economic News App, commenced on January 19, with registration open from January 17 to January 30. Participants can simulate trading with a capital of 500,000 yuan [1]. - Cash rewards for the competition include 688 yuan for the first place, 188 yuan for the second to fourth places, and 88 yuan for the fifth to tenth places, with additional rewards for monthly leaderboard positions [3]. Expert Opinions - Some experts believe that recent market corrections do not affect the bullish trend, suggesting that the A-share market may enter a prolonged slow bull phase [4]. - Potential investment opportunities identified by experts include sectors such as display panels, gas turbines, and humanoid robots [5].

股票频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 这一轮牛市确实超出了大多数人的想象。其实，对于宏观市场方向的判断，我用了一些简单而常用的方 法，比如逆向思维，再加上我对宏观周期的经验和敏感，以及确实存在的运气成分。我永远都是市场的 学生，虚心万事能成，自满十事九空。随着市场连创新高，理性提醒我，底部靠信仰，顶部靠理智。股 市总是在绝望中重生，争议中上涨，狂欢中崩盘。我们要在炮火中挺进，烟花中撤退。从事宏观研究和 投资实践二十年，看清趋势至关重要，模糊的正确好过精准的错误。平常心，想本质、想简单、想长 远。理性精神和长期主义能帮助我们走向更远。 最后，这两天看到贾和罗两位的事情，感到遗憾，都是在各自领域很优秀的人，其实可以参考但总和 我，相互释放善意，我修路，你架桥，大家就都过去了，成年人的世界。其实就是嘴仗，没啥根本利益 冲突。大家多劝劝，别起哄。群众都明白，谁先释放善意，谁格局大。最后，祝愿世界和平！祝愿您新 年快乐，马到功成！ 1月19日，经济学家任泽平昨晚发微博称，但斌先生的善意收到了。最近，但斌先生向我致歉，大致意 思，2024年9月以来确实是一轮牛市。实事求是，但斌先生作为业内顶级投资人，水平很高，他 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current market sentiment is driven by liquidity and risk appetite, leading to a concentration of hot sectors and thematic investments, which has resulted in structural overheating in some areas [1][2] Group 1: Market Trends - The recent "opening red" market rally is characterized by significant liquidity and heightened risk preferences, with a clear focus on thematic investments [1][2] - The adjustment of financing margin ratios aims to prevent systemic risks and guide the market back to rationality, while broad-based ETFs have experienced significant net outflows, indicating a market entering a phase of consolidation [1][2] - Historical comparisons suggest that the current spring market rally is still in its early stages, with potential for new highs following a short-term correction [1][2] Group 2: Sector Focus - Analysts emphasize that the upcoming earnings reporting period will shift focus back to performance indicators, particularly in sectors expected to show high growth or improved conditions, such as electronics, machinery, and pharmaceuticals [1][2] - The adjustment in financing margins is not expected to impact the overall upward trend of the market but will affect sector dynamics, with increased competition among thematic sectors [2][3] - The focus on sectors benefiting from the "anti-involution" trend and price increases includes chemicals and non-ferrous metals, with a particular emphasis on high-growth areas in the upcoming earnings forecasts [2][3] Group 3: Investment Strategies - The market is expected to maintain a "slow bull" trend, with a focus on performance fundamentals as the primary driver of investment decisions, while cautioning against irrational speculative activities [2][3] - The anticipated earnings reports in late January are expected to catalyze significant market movements, particularly in sectors with strong performance indicators [2][3] - The overall market sentiment remains positive, with expectations of continued upward momentum despite short-term fluctuations, driven by fundamental improvements and policy support [2][3]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: ETF Fund Flow Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model is designed to analyze and predict fund flows into various ETFs, identifying sectors or themes that are likely to outperform based on capital allocation trends [1][11] - **Model Construction Process**: The model tracks daily fund flow data for key ETFs, such as CSI 300 ETF, CSI 500 ETF, and thematic ETFs like Chip ETF, Carbon Neutral ETF, and Chip 50 ETF. It evaluates the net inflow or outflow of funds over specific time periods to determine investor preferences and market sentiment. For example, the model observed significant outflows from broad-based ETFs like CSI 300 ETF and CSI 500 ETF, while recommending thematic ETFs in technology sectors such as chips and carbon neutrality [1][11] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies shifts in capital allocation, highlighting potential opportunities in technology-related sectors while cautioning against certain AI application themes [1][11] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. ETF Fund Flow Model - **Key Observations**: - Significant outflows from CSI 300 ETF and CSI 500 ETF, with daily net outflows reaching 114 billion, 715 billion, and 1,048 billion yuan on January 14, 15, and 16, respectively [11] - Recommendations for Chip ETF, Carbon Neutral ETF, and Chip 50 ETF, reflecting a preference for technology sectors like electronics and power equipment [11] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Style Factors (BARRA Style Factors) - **Factor Construction Idea**: These factors aim to capture the performance of different market styles, such as value, growth, momentum, and size, to identify prevailing market preferences and trends [24] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Fundamental factors: Evaluate metrics like profitability and earnings growth to assess the performance of high-profitability assets relative to the market average - Transaction-related factors: Analyze metrics such as turnover rate, short-term momentum, and beta coefficients to identify stocks with potential for excess returns - Size factors: Examine the performance of small-cap stocks versus large-cap stocks, including non-linear size effects [24] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factors reveal a shift in market preferences, with high-turnover stocks reversing gains, while short-term momentum and high-beta stocks show potential for sustained excess returns. Small-cap stocks exhibit relative outperformance during the observed period [24] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Style Factors (BARRA Style Factors) - **Key Observations**: - Profitability-related factors showed recovery, with high-profitability assets outperforming the market average [24] - Transaction-related factors indicated a reversal in high-turnover stocks, while short-term momentum and high-beta stocks demonstrated potential for sustained excess returns [24] - Size factors highlighted the relative strength of small-cap stocks, with non-linear size factors experiencing larger drawdowns [24]

Group 1 - The article discusses the potential bullish trend in the A-share market by 2026, supported by factors such as low interest rates and the attractiveness of stock dividends compared to government bonds [5][6][10] - It highlights the concept of "asset scarcity," where capital is expected to flow into higher-yielding investments as traditional options like real estate and bank deposits lose their appeal [7][8] - The article emphasizes the importance of strategic focus on stimulating consumption and internal demand through asset appreciation rather than direct cash distribution [9][10] Group 2 - The article outlines four key investment strategies for navigating a bull market, applicable to both institutional and retail investors [11] - The first strategy is to embrace index ETFs, particularly the CSI 500, which represents a diversified selection of leading companies [12][13] - The second strategy stresses the importance of balanced asset allocation to mitigate risks associated with heavy concentration in specific stocks or sectors [14] - The third strategy advises investors to adopt a long-term perspective and avoid short-term trading, as retail investors typically lack advantages in quick market movements [15][16] - The fourth strategy suggests waiting for price corrections to find good entry points for investments, emphasizing the need for a positive mindset [17][19] Group 3 - The article identifies three key criteria for selecting high-quality companies in the high-end manufacturing sector: price increases, overseas expansion, and innovation [22][23] - It discusses the importance of evaluating both relative and absolute price metrics, including PE/PB ratios and historical performance, to determine good pricing [25][26] - The article categorizes leading manufacturing companies into five groups based on their fundamentals and valuation metrics, providing a framework for investment decisions [28]