Report Investment Ratings - The operation ratings for various products are as follows: Threaded steel is rated with three stars (★★★), hot-rolled coil with three white stars (☆☆☆), iron ore with three white stars (☆☆☆), coke with three red stars (★★★), coking coal with one red star (★☆☆), silicon manganese with one red star (★☆☆), and ferrosilicon with one red star (★☆☆) [1]. Core Views - The overall situation of the steel industry is complex. The demand is still pessimistic, the cost side is weak, and the market is under pressure. The iron ore market is expected to be volatile, and the coke and coking coal markets are likely to be weak. The silicon manganese market has a downward shift in the bottom support expectation, while the ferrosilicon market has relatively strong bottom support [2][3][4]. Summary by Product Steel - Today's steel market is mainly volatile. The demand for rebar and hot-rolled coils has improved, but the downstream's ability to absorb is insufficient, and steel mills continue to lose money. The possibility of further blast furnace production cuts is high, and the supply pressure is gradually easing. The overall domestic demand is still weak, and the export of steel has declined from its high level. The demand expectation is still pessimistic, and the market is under pressure, but there is still some support in the downward shift of the oscillation range [2]. Iron Ore - The iron ore market is oscillating today. The global shipment is strong, and the domestic port inventory is still in an accumulative trend. The demand for steel has rebounded, but it has entered the off-season, and steel mills' profitability is poor. The iron ore fundamentals are marginally looser, and the market is expected to be mainly oscillating [3]. Coke - The coke price declined today. The coking profit is average, and the daily production is slightly decreasing. The inventory has slightly increased, and the downstream's procurement is on a small scale as needed. The overall supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream's demand for raw materials is still resilient, but the steel mills' profit is average, and they have a strong desire to lower the price of raw materials. The coke market is expected to be weak and oscillating [4]. Coking Coal - The coking coal price declined today. The production of coking coal mines has slightly decreased, and the spot auction transactions are average. The overall supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream's demand for raw materials is still resilient, but the steel mills' profit is average, and they have a strong desire to lower the price of raw materials. The coking coal market is expected to be weak and oscillating [5]. Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese price oscillated downward today. The market expects an increase in coal mine supply guarantee, which may lead to a decline in power costs and chemical coke prices. The demand for iron water has rebounded to a high level, but the production of silicon manganese is still at a relatively high level, and the inventory is slowly increasing. The bottom support expectation has shifted downward [6]. Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price oscillated upward today. The market expects an increase in coal mine supply guarantee, which may lead to a decline in power costs and semi-coke prices. The demand for iron water has rebounded to a high level, and the export demand has increased to about 40,000 tons. The overall demand is still resilient, and the inventory is continuously decreasing. The bottom support is relatively strong [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ★★★ (indicating a more distinct uptrend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: ★★★ [1] - **Iron Ore**: ☆☆☆ (suggesting a short - term balance between long and short trends, with poor operability on the current market, and it's advisable to wait and see) [1] - **Coke**: ★★★ [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★☆☆ (representing a bearish bias, with a driving force for price decline but poor operability on the market) [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Silicon Iron**: ★☆☆ [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall demand for steel is weak, and the cost support is loosening. The steel market is under short - term pressure, and it's necessary to pay attention to whether favorable policies will be introduced in the real estate sector [2]. - The fundamentals of iron ore are gradually becoming looser, and the market is expected to fluctuate [3]. - The prices of coke and coking coal are likely to fluctuate weakly due to sufficient carbon element supply and strong raw material price - squeezing sentiment from steel mills [4][6]. - The bottom - support expectations for silicon manganese and silicon iron have shifted downward, and the prices are under pressure [7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Performance**: The steel market continued to decline today. The apparent demand for thread steel improved this week, production increased, and inventory decreased. The demand for hot - rolled coil recovered, production increased slightly, and inventory started to decline [2]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The downstream carrying capacity is insufficient, and steel mills are generally in a loss state. There is a high possibility of further blast furnace production cuts in the future, and the supply pressure will gradually ease. Domestic demand is still weak, and steel exports have declined from the high level [2]. Iron Ore - **Supply**: Global shipments are strong, and the shipments in the fourth quarter are expected to remain at a high level. The domestic arrival volume has declined, and port inventory is in an accumulating trend [3]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for steel has rebounded, but it has entered the off - season, and steel mills' profitability is poor. The molten iron is in a seasonal production - cut trend, and there is still room for further decline in the future [3]. Coke - **Production and Inventory**: Coke production decreased slightly, and inventory decreased slightly. Downstream customers are purchasing on - demand, and traders' purchasing意愿 is general [4]. - **Price Outlook**: The coke market is expected to fluctuate weakly due to sufficient carbon element supply and strong price - squeezing sentiment from steel mills [4]. Coking Coal - **Production and Inventory**: Coking coal production increased slightly, and total inventory increased slightly. The terminal inventory increased slightly, and the production - end inventory increased slightly [6]. - **Price Outlook**: The coking coal market is expected to fluctuate weakly due to the high expectation of coal mine supply guarantee and strong price - squeezing sentiment from steel mills [6]. Silicon Manganese - **Cost and Inventory**: There are expectations of a decline in power costs and chemical coke prices. Manganese ore inventory increased slightly, and silicon manganese inventory is slowly accumulating [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: Silicon manganese production decreased slightly but remains at a high level. The demand for molten iron has rebounded to a high level [7]. Silicon Iron - **Cost and Inventory**: There are expectations of a decline in power costs and blue - carbon prices. Silicon iron supply remains at a high level, and on - balance inventory is continuously decreasing [8]. - **Demand**: The demand for molten iron has rebounded to a high level, export demand has increased to about 40,000 tons, and the production of magnesium metal has increased [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the precious metals market, although central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price center of precious metals in the long - term, short - term macro uncertainties about December interest rate cuts may lead to continued volatile adjustments. It is recommended to pay attention to the retracement of the 60 - day moving average [3]. - In the copper market, concerns about non - farm data affecting interest rate cuts have led to capital reduction and price drops. Inventory increases and narrowing premiums reflect fundamental pressures, with limited short - term repair space [17]. - In the aluminum market, Shanghai aluminum is expected to maintain a long - term oscillatory upward trend, but short - term weak fundamentals and a lower probability of December interest rate cuts may lead to profit - taking by previous funds, resulting in subsequent oscillatory consolidation. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and the expiration of a large number of warehouse receipts will exacerbate the imbalance between supply and demand [36]. - In the zinc market, the cooling of interest rate cut expectations and a significant drop in November TC due to intense competition for ore in the smelting sector have increased the willingness of smelters to reduce or halt production in November. There is a possibility of inventory reduction, and there are significant differences between bulls and bears [59]. - In the nickel and stainless - steel market, nickel - iron prices have been declining due to weak downstream demand. The downside space for nickel and stainless - steel is greater than the upside space. Stainless - steel spot sales face pressure, and downstream demand remains weak [75]. - In the tin market, due to limited resumption of production in Wabang, refined tin concentrate imports have sharply decreased, and supply is weaker than demand. Shanghai tin is expected to maintain high - level oscillations, with support around 276,000 yuan [88]. - In the lithium carbonate market, strong demand from the new energy vehicle and energy storage sectors, combined with a slowdown in supply growth, may lead to a short - term strong and oscillatory trend in lithium prices, but position fluctuations should be watched out for [104]. - In the silicon industry chain, the supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon is generally weak, with wide - range oscillations. The polysilicon industry chain is experiencing production cuts and inventory accumulation, with a weak fundamental outlook and wide - range, weak oscillations [116]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Outlook**: In the short term, due to unclear prospects of December interest rate cuts, precious metals may continue to oscillate and adjust. In the long term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up prices [3]. - **Price Charts**: Include SHFE gold and silver futures main - continuous prices, COMEX gold prices and gold - silver ratios, SHFE and SGX gold and silver futures - spot price differences, gold and US Treasury real interest rates, gold long - term fund holdings, and SHFE and COMEX gold and silver inventories [4][12][16]. Copper - **Price Outlook**: Market concerns about non - farm data and inventory increases have led to price drops, with limited short - term repair space [17]. - **Price Data**: Spot prices from various sources (Shanghai Non - ferrous, Shanghai Wumaoyi, etc.) have small daily increases. Futures prices of Shanghai copper and London copper show different trends, with Shanghai copper rising and London copper falling [22][23]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts and LME copper inventories show different changes, with some warehouse receipts decreasing and LME copper inventories increasing [32][34]. Aluminum - **Price Outlook**: Shanghai aluminum may oscillate and consolidate in the short term, while alumina is in an oversupply situation [36]. - **Price Data**: Aluminum and alumina futures and spot prices show different trends, with some rising and some falling [38][45]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum inventories show different changes, and alumina warehouse receipts increase slightly [53]. Zinc - **Price Outlook**: Cooling interest rate cut expectations and a drop in November TC have increased the willingness of smelters to cut production. There is a possibility of inventory reduction, and there are significant differences between bulls and bears [59]. - **Price Data**: Shanghai zinc and LME zinc prices show different trends, with Shanghai zinc rising and LME zinc falling slightly [60]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts decrease, and LME zinc inventories increase [72]. Nickel and Stainless - Steel - **Price Outlook**: Nickel - iron prices decline due to weak downstream demand, and the downside space for nickel and stainless - steel is greater than the upside space. Stainless - steel spot sales face pressure [75]. - **Price Data**: Nickel and stainless - steel futures prices show different trends, with some rising and some falling [76]. - **Inventory Data**: Nickel warehouse receipts decrease [76]. Tin - **Price Outlook**: Due to limited resumption of production in Wabang, refined tin concentrate imports have sharply decreased, and supply is weaker than demand. Shanghai tin is expected to maintain high - level oscillations [88]. - **Price Data**: Shanghai tin and London tin futures prices show different trends, with Shanghai tin rising and London tin falling slightly [89]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai tin warehouse receipts decrease, and LME tin inventories remain unchanged [99]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Outlook**: Strong demand and slow supply growth may lead to a short - term strong and oscillatory trend in lithium prices, but position fluctuations should be watched out for [104]. - **Price Data**: Lithium carbonate futures and spot prices show an upward trend [105][109]. - **Inventory Data**: Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts increase slightly, and social and downstream inventories decrease [114]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Price Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon is generally weak, with wide - range oscillations. The polysilicon industry chain is experiencing production cuts and inventory accumulation, with a weak fundamental outlook [116]. - **Price Data**: Industrial silicon and polysilicon - related product prices show different trends, with some remaining stable and some changing slightly [116]. - **Inventory Data**: Industrial silicon social inventory and polysilicon total inventory show different trends [134][143].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, silicon iron: ★★★, indicating a clearer long/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Coke, coking coal, ferrosilicon: ☆☆☆, suggesting that the short-term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is less operable, with a wait-and-see approach recommended [1] Core Views - The steel market is facing weak domestic demand, with the decline in real estate investment expanding and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment continuing to fall. The supply pressure is gradually easing, but the market sentiment remains cautious, and there may be short-term fluctuations [2] - The iron ore market has a marginal loosening of fundamentals, with supply increasing and demand expected to decline further. The market is expected to be mainly volatile [3] - The coke and coking coal markets have abundant carbon element supply, but the steel mills' profit margins are average, leading to strong price pressure on raw materials. The prices are expected to be weakly volatile [4][5] - The silicon manganese and ferrosilicon markets have an increase in the expectation of coal mine supply guarantee, and the demand has some resilience. The prices have strong bottom support [6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The spot market shows that the off-season demand for thread steel is declining, and the inventory is decreasing. The demand for hot-rolled coil is stabilizing, and the inventory accumulation rhythm is slowing down. The iron water output has rebounded, but the downstream's ability to absorb is insufficient, and the proportion of steel mill losses is expanding. The supply pressure is gradually easing, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of environmental protection production restrictions in Tangshan and other places [2] - The futures market has adjusted relatively fully, and the support at the lower edge of the oscillation range has increased. The cost-side furnace materials are significantly differentiated, and the market sentiment remains cautious, with short-term fluctuations still possible [2] Iron Ore - The supply side shows that the global shipment has increased significantly, and the domestic arrival volume has decreased to below the annual average level. The port inventory has decreased at the beginning of the week, and there are some short-term structural disturbances [3] - The demand side shows that the off-season demand for steel is weak, and the steel mill losses are intensifying. The iron water output has rebounded in the short term but is still in the seasonal production reduction trend, with further production reduction space expected in the future [3] - The macro level is in a policy vacuum period, lacking expected drivers. The iron ore fundamentals are marginally loosening, and the market is expected to be mainly volatile [3] Coke - The supply side shows that the coking profit is still average, and the daily output has decreased slightly. The coke inventory has decreased slightly, and the downstream is purchasing on demand, with the inventory slightly decreasing [4] - The demand side shows that the carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream iron water output has returned to a high range, with some resilience in demand. However, the steel mill profit margins are average, leading to strong price pressure on raw materials [4] - The futures market shows that the intraday price has dropped significantly, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [4] Coking Coal - The supply side shows that the market's expectation of coal mine supply guarantee has increased, and the coking coal output has increased slightly. The spot auction transactions are normal, and the transaction prices are mixed. The terminal inventory has increased slightly [5] - The demand side shows that the carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream iron water output has returned to a high range, with some resilience in demand. However, the steel mill profit margins are average, leading to strong price pressure on raw materials [5] - The futures market shows that the intraday price has dropped significantly, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [5] Silicon Manganese - The supply side shows that the market's expectation of coal mine supply guarantee has increased, and the power cost and chemical coke price are expected to decline. The weekly output has decreased slightly, but the output is still at a relatively high level, and the inventory is slowly increasing [6] - The demand side shows that the iron water output has rebounded to a high range, and the demand has some resilience [6] - The cost side shows that the price of Comilog manganese ore has increased slightly, and the spot ore price has changed rapidly following the market trend. The manganese ore inventory has increased slightly, and the contradiction is not prominent. The price has strong bottom support [6] Silicon Iron - The supply side shows that the market's expectation of coal mine supply guarantee has increased, and the power cost and blue carbon price are expected to decline. The supply remains at a high level, and the on-balance sheet inventory is continuously decreasing [7] - The demand side shows that the iron water output has rebounded to a high range, and the export demand has increased to about 40,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The metal magnesium output has increased, and the secondary demand has increased marginally. The overall demand has some resilience [7] - The cost side shows that the increase in electricity and blue carbon prices has led to a certain sentiment of bottoming out and rebounding. The price is judged to still have bottom support [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★★★ [1] - Iron ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ★☆★ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆★ [1] - Silicon manganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market has a short - term rebound supported by policy and environmental protection expectations, but its sustainability is to be observed. The iron ore market is expected to be mainly volatile, and the coke, coking coal, silicon manganese, and ferrosilicon markets are also likely to be in a volatile state [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's steel futures rebounded. In the off - season, the apparent demand for thread decreased, production declined, and inventory continued to fall. The demand for hot - rolled coils stabilized, production continued to decline, and the inventory accumulation slowed down. - Iron - making water production rebounded, but the downstream's ability to absorb was insufficient, the proportion of steel - mill losses increased, and there is a high possibility of further blast - furnace production cuts. - Real - estate investment decline continued to expand, infrastructure and manufacturing investment growth rates continued to fall, domestic demand was weak, and steel exports declined from a high level. - The previous adjustment of the futures was relatively sufficient, the support at the lower edge of the shock range increased, and short - term rebound was supported by policy and environmental protection expectations [2] Iron Ore - The iron - ore futures rebounded today and fluctuated recently. - On the supply side, global iron - ore shipments increased significantly this period, reaching a high level in the same period in recent years. Shipments from Australia and Brazil increased significantly, and shipments from non - mainstream countries also rebounded to a high level. The domestic arrival volume decreased to below the annual average. - On the demand side, steel demand was weak in the off - season, steel - mill losses intensified, and iron - making water was in a seasonal production - cut trend. - The iron - ore fundamentals became looser, and the futures are expected to fluctuate [3] Coke - The coke price rose today. Coking profits were still average, and daily production decreased slightly. Coke inventory decreased slightly, with downstream purchasing on demand and weak trader purchasing willingness. - The supply of carbon elements was abundant, downstream iron - making water was at a high level, but steel - mill profits were average, and there was strong willingness to cut raw - material prices. The coke futures were at a premium, and the price is expected to fluctuate [4] Coking Coal - The coking - coal price rose strongly today. The output of coking - coal mines increased slightly, spot auction transactions were normal, and transaction prices varied. Terminal inventory increased slightly. - The total coking - coal inventory increased slightly, and production - end inventory also increased slightly. Safety inspections were carried out in major coal - producing areas. - The supply of carbon elements was abundant, downstream iron - making water was at a high level, but steel - mill profits were average, and there was strong willingness to cut raw - material prices. The coke futures were at a premium, the coking - coal futures were at a discount to Mongolian coal, and the price is expected to fluctuate [5] Silicon Manganese - The silicon - manganese price rose today. On the demand side, iron - making water production rebounded to a high level. The weekly output of silicon manganese continued to decline slightly but was still at a high level, and inventory increased slowly. - The forward price of manganese ore from Comilog increased slightly, and the spot ore price fluctuated quickly. Manganese - ore inventory increased slightly, and contradictions were not prominent. The price had strong bottom support [6] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price rose today. On the demand side, iron - making water production rebounded to a high level. Export demand increased to about 40,000 tons, and the marginal impact was small. The output of magnesium metal increased, and secondary demand increased marginally. - Ferrosilicon supply decreased but remained at a high level, and on - balance inventory continued to decline. Due to the increase in electricity and semi - coke prices, the price is expected to be more likely to rise [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - In the medium - to long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price of precious metals [3]. - The potential end of the US government shutdown and the weakening labor market indicators have increased the market's expectation of a December interest rate cut, weakening the US dollar index and boosting copper prices. Meanwhile, the average price in the domestic spot market has risen, and the premium has slowed [12]. - For aluminum, funds are the core factor affecting prices. There is a contradiction between funds and the industry, and the upward trend of Shanghai aluminum depends on continuous fund inflows. For alumina, it is still in an oversupply situation [32]. - In November, due to intense competition for zinc ore in the smelting sector and a decrease in TC, the willingness to reduce or halt production has increased. If demand remains stable, there is a possibility of inventory reduction, and zinc prices are expected to have upward momentum [56]. - For the nickel industry chain, weak demand in the off - season suppresses the upward space. The price of nickel ore may remain strong in the short term, while nickel iron prices have been decreasing, and stainless steel faces pressure [72]. - For tin, supply is weaker than demand due to limited resumption of production in Wa State and a sharp decline in concentrate imports. Shanghai tin will maintain high - level volatility, but there is a risk of price decline [87]. - For lithium carbonate, it is currently in a state of being prone to rise but difficult to fall, maintaining a strong - side oscillation, but there is a risk of correction [103]. - For the silicon industry chain, the overall supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon and the polysilicon industry chain is weak, and they are expected to show wide - range oscillations [114]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - Price trends: Presented data on SHFE and COMEX gold and silver futures prices, as well as price - to - ratio relationships [4][10]. - Price differences: Showed SHFE and SGX gold and silver futures - spot price differences [5][7]. - Correlation: Illustrated the relationship between gold and US Treasury real interest rates and the US dollar index [8][9]. - Fund positions: Displayed the positions of gold and silver long - term funds [10]. - Inventory: Showed SHFE and COMEX gold and silver inventories [11]. Copper - Futures data: Provided data on copper futures prices, including Shanghai and London copper, with details such as the latest price, daily change, and daily change rate [13]. - Spot data: Presented copper spot prices and premium data from different regions, as well as import profit and loss and processing fee data [17][23]. - Scrap price difference: Gave the difference between refined and scrap copper prices [27]. - Warehouse receipts: Showed the quantity and change of copper warehouse receipts in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and international markets [28][30]. Aluminum and Alumina - Price data: Provided price data for aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy futures, including the latest price, daily change, and daily change rate [34]. - Price difference: Showed the price differences between different contracts of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy [36][38]. - Spot data: Presented aluminum spot prices, basis, and price differences in different regions, as well as alumina basis data [42][44]. - Inventory: Showed the inventory data of aluminum and alumina futures, including Shanghai and London inventory changes [50]. Zinc - Price data: Provided zinc futures price data, including Shanghai and LME zinc, with details such as the latest price, daily change, and daily change rate [57]. - Spot data: Presented zinc spot prices and premium data, as well as LME zinc premium data [65]. - Inventory: Showed the inventory data of zinc futures, including Shanghai and LME inventory changes [69]. Nickel Industry Chain - Price data: Provided price data for nickel and stainless steel futures, including the latest price, change, and change rate, as well as trading volume, open interest, and warehouse receipt data [73]. - Downstream profit: Showed the profit data of downstream products in the nickel industry chain, such as the profit rate of producing nickel sulfate and stainless steel [82][84]. Tin - Futures data: Provided tin futures price data, including Shanghai and LME tin, with details such as the latest price, daily change, and daily change rate [88]. - Spot data: Presented tin spot prices and premium data, as well as the price data of tin - related products [93]. - Inventory: Showed the inventory data of tin futures, including Shanghai and LME inventory changes [98]. Lithium Carbonate - Futures price: Provided the price data of lithium carbonate futures, including the latest price, daily change, and weekly change, as well as the price difference between different contracts [104][106]. - Spot data: Presented lithium spot prices, including the prices of different types of lithium products and their price differences [108]. - Inventory: Showed the inventory data of lithium carbonate, including exchange inventory, social inventory, and inventory in different sectors [112]. Silicon Industry Chain - Industrial silicon: Presented industrial silicon spot prices, basis, and price differences, as well as futures price data and price differences between different contracts [115][116]. - Polysilicon and related products: Showed the price data of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and other products in the silicon industry chain [123][125]. - Production and inventory: Displayed the production, inventory, and cost data of industrial silicon and polysilicon, as well as the production capacity and output data of silicon wafers [130][134].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ★★★ [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil**: ★★★ [1] - **Iron Ore**: ★★★ [1] - **Coke**: ★★★ [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★★★ [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ★★★ [1] - **Silicon Iron**: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The overall demand for steel is weak, with the cost center shifting down due to the decline of furnace materials, and the steel plate is under pressure, mainly in a weak shock in the short term [2]. - The iron ore market is expected to be volatile, with the supply side showing some fluctuations and the demand side weakening due to reduced steel demand [3]. - The coke and coking coal markets are facing pressure from reduced downstream demand and abundant carbon element supply, with prices expected to be relatively strong in a shock [4][6]. - The silicon manganese and silicon iron markets are affected by the decline in iron - water production, with different supply - demand situations and price trends [7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - In the off - season, the apparent demand and production of thread steel and hot - rolled coil both decline, and the inventory situation varies. Iron - water production falls from a high level, and the negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain needs to be alleviated. The overall domestic demand is weak, and exports have declined from a high level. The demand expectation is pessimistic, and the plate is under pressure [2]. Iron Ore - On the supply side, global shipments have declined month - on - month, and domestic arrivals have dropped significantly but are still at a high level, with port inventories continuing to increase. On the demand side, steel demand in the off - season has decreased, and iron - water production has continued to decrease. The market is trading the reality of a marginally looser iron ore supply, and the trend is expected to be volatile [3]. Coke - The price has declined during the day. The downstream acceptance of the fourth - round price adjustment is poor. Coking profits are average, and daily production has decreased slightly. The inventory has decreased slightly, and the overall supply of carbon elements is abundant, with downstream demand for raw materials decreasing [4]. Coking Coal - The price has declined during the day. Mongolian coal imports have increased, and the production of coking coal mines has decreased slightly. The total inventory has increased slightly, and the market is affected by factors such as safety inspections in coal - producing areas and reduced downstream demand [6]. Silicon Manganese - The price is weakly volatile. The demand has decreased due to the decline in iron - water production. The weekly production has decreased slightly but is still at a high level, and the inventory is slowly increasing. The price of manganese ore has shown some fluctuations [7]. Silicon Iron - The price is weakly volatile. The demand from iron - water production has decreased, but the export demand has increased marginally, and the secondary demand has also increased. The supply is at a high level, and the inventory has decreased. Cost factors may lead to a price rebound [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ★★★ (implied by the context as more positive) [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil**: ★★★ (implied by the context as more positive) [1] - **Iron Ore**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Coke**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Silicon Iron**: ★☆★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall steel market is under pressure due to weak demand expectations and declining exports, with the disk remaining under pressure. The iron ore market is expected to be in a weak and volatile state, while the coke and coking coal markets may be in a relatively strong and volatile state. The silicon manganese and silicon iron markets have strong price support at the bottom [1][2][3][5][6][7] Summary by Category Steel - The disk showed a weak and volatile trend. The demand and production of thread steel and hot rolled coil both declined, with inventory changes varying. Iron - water production continued to fall, and the negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain remained to be alleviated. The overall domestic demand was weak, and steel exports declined from the high level. The disk was under pressure, and attention should be paid to the support at the lower edge of the shock range and marginal demand changes [1] Iron Ore - The disk declined. The global iron ore shipment was at a high level, and the domestic arrival volume increased significantly. The port inventory was accumulating. The terminal demand entered the off - season, and the iron - water production continued to decrease. The supply - demand relationship was gradually loosening, and there was still a risk of negative feedback in the off - season industrial chain. It was expected to be in a weak and volatile state [2] Coke - The price fluctuated downward. After the third round of price increase was quickly implemented, there was an expectation of a fourth round. The coking profit was average, and the daily production and inventory decreased slightly. The downstream demand was weak, and the steel mills had a strong desire to lower the price. The disk price was at a premium, and it was expected to be in a relatively strong and volatile state [3] Coking Coal - The price fluctuated downward. The Mongolian coal import volume was high, and the coking coal production decreased slightly. The total inventory increased slightly, and attention should be paid to the impact of safety inspections. The downstream demand was weak, and the steel mills had a strong desire to lower the price. The disk price was at a discount to Mongolian coal, and it was expected to be in a relatively strong and volatile state [5] Silicon Manganese - The price fluctuated. The iron - water production continued to decline, while the weekly production of silicon manganese increased slightly, and the inventory was slowly accumulating. The manganese ore inventory decreased slightly, and the price had strong support at the bottom [6] Silicon Iron - The price fluctuated. The iron - water production continued to decline, but the export demand increased to about 40,000 tons, and the secondary demand increased marginally. The supply remained at a high level, and the inventory decreased. The price had strong support at the bottom [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials sector is "oscillation" [7] Core View of the Report - As the off - season begins, the expectation of weakening steel demand remains unchanged, and the inventory depletion is expected to slow down, putting pressure on steel prices. With the weakening of environmental protection restrictions, the weekly hot metal output is expected to stop falling and rise, supporting the demand for furnace materials. The coal mine production remains restricted this week, and the coal mine inventory continues to decline at a low level. The coking coal fundamentals are still supported, corresponding to the price stop - falling and rising since yesterday. The strong furnace material prices further support the steel cost. With no new changes in macro and policies, the prices of short - term sector varieties will maintain an oscillatory operation [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Overall Situation of Iron, Carbon, and Alloy Elements - **Iron Element**: This week, hot metal output shows signs of stopping decline, but considering the seasonal maintenance of steel enterprises in the traditional off - season, the overall downward trend of hot metal remains unchanged, corresponding to the marginal weakening of iron ore fundamentals. However, there are still disturbances from internal and external macro and policy expectations, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate. The supply and demand of scrap steel both increase, with no prominent fundamental contradictions. The short - term finished product prices are under pressure, and scrap steel prices are expected to follow the finished products [3]. - **Carbon Element**: After three rounds of coke price increases, the profit pressure on steel mills is relatively large, so the expectation of a fourth - round price increase is currently small. Given the strong cost support for coke and the continued procurement demand from steel mills, the coke price is expected to oscillate. This week, both domestic coking coal supply and upstream inventory have decreased, and the coking coal fundamentals remain relatively healthy. It is expected that coking coal supply will still be difficult to improve in the future. With continuous procurement from the middle and lower reaches, coal mine inventory has dropped to a low level in recent years, and the short - term fundamentals remain healthy. The coking coal price is expected to oscillate [3]. - **Alloy**: In the short term, the firm cost supports the price of ferromanganese - silicon, but the market supply - demand continues to have a pessimistic expectation, and there is insufficient driving force for the price increase of ferromanganese - silicon. The strong short - term cost trend supports the price of ferrosilicon, but the market supply - demand relationship is relatively loose, suppressing the upward price space [3]. 2. Glass and Soda Ash - Supply disturbance expectations have fermented again, and the supply side faces short - term downward risks. However, the inventory of middle and lower reaches is moderately high. If the production and sales continue to be weak, the price will return to an oscillatory and weak state. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed. If the market refocuses on fundamentals, the price may continue to oscillate downward. Recently, downstream enterprises have started to replenish inventory as they think the price is appropriate. After the inventory of soda ash plants is depleted, the price has slightly increased, and it is expected to oscillate in the short - term [4][7]. 3. Specific Analysis of Each Variety - **Steel**: The spot market transactions are generally weak, mainly at low prices. Recently, the profit of steel mills has marginally improved, but affected by environmental protection restrictions and seasonal maintenance of steel mills, hot metal output has declined from a high level, and steel production shows a downward trend. As the peak season is coming to an end, the demand side faces the pressure of falling from a high level. Steel inventory continues to be depleted, but the depletion speed has slowed down, and the inventory level remains higher than the same period last year. The short - term macro - sentiment has cooled down, and the futures market is expected to be under pressure for adjustment, but the cost side still has support, and the downward space of the futures market is limited [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The port transactions have decreased, and the spot market transactions have weakened. From a fundamental perspective, the overseas mine shipping end is relatively stable, and the arrival volume has fluctuated greatly in the past month, but the average arrival volume basically meets expectations. The demand side has a slight increase in the daily consumption of sintered powder ore, and there is an expectation of a month - on - month increase in hot metal, but the profitability rate of steel mills continues to weaken, and the peak season is gradually ending, which may limit the recovery space of hot metal. In terms of inventory, under sintering restrictions, the inventory of sintered powder ore has increased month - on - month, and the production and inventory of sintered ore have slightly decreased. The market sentiment is weak, but the price still has support when the demand does not weaken significantly [9]. - **Scrap Steel**: The arrival volume of scrap steel has increased slightly this week, approaching the level of the same period last year. The demand has also increased, with an increase in the daily consumption of electric furnaces in various regions. The overall daily consumption of scrap steel in 255 steel mills has decreased. The fundamentals of scrap steel have no prominent contradictions, and the short - term finished product prices are under pressure. Scrap steel prices are expected to follow the finished products [11]. - **Coke**: The futures market oscillates, and the spot price in Rizhao Port remains unchanged. After three rounds of price increases, the supply of coke is difficult to increase due to environmental protection and maintenance. The demand side is affected by environmental protection in Tangshan, and hot metal has declined significantly in the short - term. If the environmental protection inspection intensity weakens in the future, hot metal may still have a slight upward trend. The overall supply - demand of coke is relatively healthy, and the fundamentals have no major contradictions. After three rounds of price increases, the profit pressure on steel mills is large, so the expectation of a fourth - round price increase is small. Given the strong cost support and the continued procurement demand from steel mills, the coke price is expected to oscillate [13]. - **Coking Coal**: The futures market oscillates, and the spot price has increased. The supply of domestic coking coal and upstream inventory have both decreased this week. The import volume at the Ganqimaodu Port remains high, but high - quality resources at the port are still in short supply. The downstream coking enterprises still have the enthusiasm to replenish inventory, and the coal mine inventory has dropped to a low level in recent years. The short - term fundamentals remain healthy, and the coking coal price is expected to oscillate [14]. - **Glass**: The supply disturbance expectation has fermented again, and the supply side faces short - term downward risks. However, the inventory of middle and lower reaches is moderately high. If the production and sales continue to be weak, the price will return to an oscillatory and weak state. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to oscillate downward [15]. - **Soda Ash**: The downstream has started to replenish inventory at low prices, and the spot price has slightly increased. The supply side has a daily output of 104,000 tons, and some manufacturers are under maintenance, with the output remaining unchanged month - on - month. The demand side has a stable and good demand for heavy soda ash, and the downstream procurement of light soda ash has recovered to some extent. The supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious changes, and the industry is still in the stage of clearing at the bottom of the cycle. It is expected that the price will oscillate in the short - term, and in the long - term, the supply surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline [15][17]. - **Ferromanganese - Silicon**: The futures market price has slightly increased, and the cost support and supply - demand pressure are in a stalemate. The spot market is waiting for the performance of the new round of steel tenders, and the manufacturers' shipment situation is average, with the downstream's price - cutting sentiment remaining. The short - term cost is firm, supporting the price of ferromanganese - silicon, but the market supply - demand continues to have a pessimistic expectation, and there is insufficient driving force for the price increase [17]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The futures market price is strongly oscillating, and the settlement electricity price increase strengthens the cost support, but the loose supply - demand suppresses the increase in the futures market. The spot market remains stable, and manufacturers are reluctant to sell at low prices due to cost pressure. The short - term cost trend is strong, supporting the price of ferrosilicon, but the market supply - demand relationship is relatively loose, and there is insufficient driving force for the price to rise [18].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The medium - term downward risk of oil prices remains due to supply - demand surplus pressure and the uncertain impact of geopolitical factors [2]. - Precious metals are in a high - level shock platform and should be temporarily observed due to the uncertainty of the US economy and Fed policies [3]. - For most commodities, the market is affected by factors such as supply - demand balance, policy changes, and seasonal factors, showing different trends of shock, strength, or weakness [2 - 50]. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: After the unexpected increase in API and EIA crude oil inventories, the medium - term downward risk of oil prices exists. Geopolitical factors have an uncertain impact on supply [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil has limited upward momentum due to sufficient supply, while high - sulfur fuel oil's medium - term supply tends to be loose. The crack spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils is expected to widen [22]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: With improved chemical profits and increased combustion demand, but weak international oil prices, the LPG main contract is expected to oscillate [24]. - **Bitumen**: With the decline of construction in the north, the fundamentals show multiple negative signals, and the market is under pressure [23]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals are in a high - level shock platform, and it's advisable to wait and see due to the uncertainty of the US economy and Fed policies [3]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: After hitting a record high, it needs new negative supply themes or strong demand signals. It's recommended to wait and see [4]. - **Aluminum**: The short - term trend is oscillating and slightly stronger, but the upward space is limited [5]. - **Zinc**: Supported by winter storage and refinery复产 expectations, it's expected to oscillate between 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton, and short - term long positions on dips are recommended [8]. - **Nickel**: Weakly operating with a downward - shifting center of gravity due to weak downstream demand [10]. - **Tin**: After a short - term sharp decline, it's close to the October low, and short - selling is suspended to wait for changes in social inventory [11]. - **Lead**: Oscillating between 17,300 - 17,500 yuan/ton due to the conflict between supply - demand fundamentals and market sentiment [9]. - **Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron**: Both are expected to have narrow - range oscillations, with relatively stable supply and demand [19][20]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Both are oscillating strongly. Although downstream demand provides some support, steel mills' low profit levels lead to price - pressing sentiment. Attention should be paid to safety production assessment information [17][18]. - **Alumina**: With a surplus supply pattern, it's weakly operating with limited rebound space [7]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the price of aluminum and has no independent market for the time being [6]. Chemicals - **Urea**: The market is oscillating strongly, with increasing production and some support from agricultural demand, but the supply - demand surplus situation persists, and the market is expected to oscillate within a range [25]. - **Methanol**: With high port inventory, high import supply, and weak downstream demand, the market is under pressure, and it's necessary to wait for supply reduction and demand improvement [26]. - **Pure Benzene**: It's oscillating at a low level. There are medium - term negatives of high imports and falling demand, and it's advisable to focus on the inventory accumulation rhythm [27]. - **Styrene**: New production capacity is increasing, and the price is expected to continue to be weak [28]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: The supply is relatively loose, downstream demand is weak, and the market performance is average [29]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC is operating at a low level due to high supply and low demand, while caustic soda is expected to continue to decline due to high inventory and weak demand [30]. - **PX and PTA**: Supply is increasing, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation. The anti - arbitrage strategy is continued, and attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations [31]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is increasing, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation. The anti - arbitrage strategy is adopted, and attention should be paid to the possibility of plant shutdowns [32]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber is expected to accumulate inventory in the future, and bottle - chip is under pressure due to weak demand and over - capacity [33]. Building Materials - **Glass**: After the production line shutdown in Shahe, the inventory is expected to decline. With rising costs, the downward space is limited, and short - selling options can be held [34]. - **20 - Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber**: The supply pressure is easing, demand is slowly recovering, but inventory is increasing, and the market sentiment is pessimistic. It's advisable to wait and see and focus on cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [35]. - **Soda Ash**: It's oscillating. With increasing supply and high inventory, and reduced demand from float glass, it's under pressure, and attention should be paid to the strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash [36]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: Affected by the tariff adjustment, the price of soybean meal may rise. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on dips after the Sino - US trade eases [37]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: The contradiction between soybean and palm oil is differentiated. It's expected that soybean meal will be stronger than oil, and there is a risk of oil price decline [38]. - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil**: It's recommended to be bullish on rapeseed meal and bearish on rapeseed oil in the short term, with the risk of changes in trade relations [39]. - **Soybean No.1**: Driven by the rise of US soybeans, the price is strengthening, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and policy changes [40]. - **Corn**: The supply is abundant, and the price is expected to continue to be weak at the bottom. Attention should be paid to the Sino - US economic and trade agreement [41]. - **Hog**: The futures price rebounds, but the spot price continues to fall. There is a high probability of a second bottom - probing in the first half of next year [42]. - **Egg**: The futures price is strong, and it's advisable to wait for the opportunity to go short in the fourth quarter [43]. - **Cotton**: The short - term trend is oscillating, and it's advisable to wait and see. Attention should be paid to the impact of Sino - US negotiations on trade [44]. - **Sugar**: The international market supply is sufficient, and the domestic market focuses on the new - season output estimate. Attention should be paid to weather and crop growth [45]. - **Apple**: The market is trading the inventory pressure in advance, and a bearish strategy is maintained [46]. - **Timber**: With low inventory providing support, it's advisable to wait and see [47]. - **Pulp**: The supply is relatively loose, demand is average, and it's advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [48]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The market is expected to oscillate in the short term. It's advisable to maintain a balanced layout and focus on technological innovation, industrial upgrading, and also consider cyclical and consumer sectors [49]. - **Treasury Bond**: The futures are oscillating, and the steepening of the yield curve is expected to end [50].