在高市早苗政权提出积极财政政策的背景下，市场对日本财政恶化的警惕引发了抛售日元的压力。日本 财务相、经济财政相以及日本银行总裁举行了三方会谈，但传出会中并未提及有关日元贬值、美元走强 的具体议题…… 11月19日的纽约外汇市场上，日元汇率一度跌至1美元兑157日元区间。日元跌至157日元区间是自1月中 旬以来时隔约10个月。对欧元方面，日元在1欧元兑181日元出头，刷新最弱水平。在高市早苗政权提出 积极财政政策的背景下，市场对日本财政恶化的警惕引发了抛售日元的压力。 对美元方面，从美国东部时间19日凌晨触及156日元区间后，日元在大约10小时内下跌了1日元。19日傍 晚（日本时间），日本财务相片山皋月、经济财政相城内实以及日本银行总裁植田和男举行了三方会 谈，但传出会中并未提及有关日元贬值、美元走强的具体议题，市场对政府和日本央行进行汇率干预的 预期随之下降。 美国联邦储备委员会（FRB）的降息节奏变得难以判断也带来影响。19日公布的10月美国联邦公开市场 委员会（FOMC）会议纪要显示，不少与会者预计至少在年底之前维持政策利率不变。 在会议纪要公布后，根据美国利率期货市场走势预测政策利率的"FedWatch ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call primarily discusses China's economic development goals and macroeconomic policies as outlined in the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans, focusing on high-quality development and technological self-reliance [1][4][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Economic Growth Targets**: By 2035, China's per capita GDP is targeted to exceed $20,000, implying a nominal growth rate of approximately 3.5% and a real growth rate of about 4.17% over the next decade [1][2]. - **High-Quality Development**: The 15th Five-Year Plan emphasizes high-quality development and technological advancement, marking a shift from previous plans that prioritized economic growth alone [4][5]. - **Supply-Side Policies**: Future demand-side policies will focus on supply-side stimulation, such as providing financial support to enterprises and encouraging innovation, rather than direct fiscal stimulus [9][10]. - **Consumer Spending**: There is an increasing market focus on the consumer sector, with expectations for policies aimed at boosting consumer spending, although the effectiveness of these measures may be gradual [6][7]. - **Export Performance**: China's strong export performance in 2025 is attributed to the expansion into non-U.S. markets and increased overseas investment, rather than a strategy of "grabbing exports" [3][14][15]. - **Fiscal Policy Outlook**: Despite a projected fiscal deficit rate of 4.0% in 2025, the overall fiscal policy will remain prudent, focusing on enhancing fiscal efficiency and supporting national strategic tasks [12][13]. Additional Important Insights - **Technological Self-Reliance**: The emphasis on technological self-reliance indicates a significant shift in policy priorities, reflecting the need to enhance domestic capabilities in the face of global competition [4][5]. - **Impact of Global Economic Environment**: The anticipated shift towards expansive fiscal and monetary policies in developed countries by 2026 is expected to improve the global demand environment, benefiting China's exports [16]. - **Consumer Services Expansion**: Efforts to expand high-quality service consumption include large-scale events and reforms to reduce barriers to consumer spending, such as easing restrictions on car purchases [8][11]. - **AI and Economic Outlook**: The discussion on AI suggests that current valuations in the tech sector do not indicate a bubble similar to the 2000 internet bubble, as AI's impact on economic growth is still developing [17][18]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into China's economic strategies and the implications for various sectors.

在东京债券市场，日本长期国债普遍因遭到抛售而价格下跌，导致收益率不断上扬，接连突破历史高 点。19日，由于投资者购债意欲低下，作为长期利率指标的新发行10年期国债收益率一度升至 1.775%，为2008年6月以来最高。 在东京外汇市场，自高市当选日本自民党总裁进而当选日本首相后，日元重新进入下降通道，不断走 软。近日，由于媒体纷纷报道日本政府拟推出大规模财政刺激计划，日元贬值势头再度加剧，日元对美 元汇率下探至1美元兑换155日元左右。（完） 新华社东京11月19日电（记者刘春燕）由于日本首相高市早苗力推积极财政政策并主张保持宽松货币政 策等多重因素，投资者对日本政府财政状况恶化的忧虑不断上升，日本金融市场连日来遭遇股债汇"三 杀"。 截至19日，东京股市两大股指连续4个交易日下跌，日经股指累计下跌2700多点。投资者担心高市早苗 日前发表的涉台严重错误言论导致日中关系持续恶化，不仅百货、运输、酒店等与入境消费关系密切的 行业股票大跌，一些倚重中国市场的公司股票也因业绩前景难料遭到投资者抛售。此外，由于纽约股市 近日频繁调整，三大股指多次全面下跌，日本股市很多投资者选择获利了结、离场观望。 责任编辑：刘万里 ...

新华财经东京11月19日电（记者刘春燕）由于日本首相高市早苗力推积极财政政策并主张货币政策应保 持宽松，市场对日本财政状况恶化的忧虑不断上升，日本最近两日连续遭遇股债汇"三杀"。 截至19日，东京股市两大股指连续4个交易日下跌，日经股指累计跌去2700多点。由于投资者担心中日 关系恶化，不仅百货、运输、酒店等与入境消费关系密切的行业股票大跌，一些在倚重中国市场的公司 也因业绩变得不透明遭到投资者抛售。此外，由于纽约股市近日频繁调整，三大股指多次全面下跌，很 多投资者选择获利了结、离场观望。 在东京债券市场，高市早苗上台以来，投资者对日本政府财政恶化的忧虑不断加深，各种期限的长期国 债普遍遭到投资者抛售，导致长债价格下跌、收益率不断上扬，接连突破历史高点。19日，由于投资者 购债意欲低下，作为长期利率指标的新发10年期国债收益率一度升至1.775%，创下2008年6月以来的最 高。 在东京外汇市场，10月3日日元对美元汇率还徘徊于1美元兑147日元区间，其后随着高市当选日本自民 党总裁并进而当选日本首相，日元重新进入下降通道，不断走软。近日，由于此间媒体纷纷报道日本政 府拟推出大规模财政刺激计划，市场对政府增发 ...

Economic Outlook - The macroeconomic environment shows mixed signals, with external trade indicators improving while domestic consumption and real estate sales decline [2][3][15] - The container throughput at Chinese ports has increased by 1.4% week-on-week as of November 9, with a four-week year-on-year growth of 8.9% [2][28] - Commodity prices, including oil, gold, and copper, have seen upward trends, with the South China Comprehensive Index rising by 0.9% [2][40] Consumer Demand - Retail sales of passenger vehicles have turned negative, with a year-on-year decline of 19% as of November 9, compared to a growth of 5.8% in October [3][15] - Real estate sales have worsened, with a 38% year-on-year drop in transaction volume across 67 cities in the first two weeks of November [3][15] - The average land premium rate has decreased, indicating a cooling real estate market [15] Production and Infrastructure - Infrastructure activity continues to decline, with cement shipment rates dropping to 33.4% in the first week of November, down from 38.2% year-on-year [3][19] - The asphalt plant operating rate has also decreased to 29%, reflecting a slowdown in construction activities [19] Trade Dynamics - The number of vessels departing from major Chinese ports has decreased by 3.3% year-on-year in mid-November, indicating a potential slowdown in trade [28] - Direct trade flow between China and the U.S. has seen a significant drop, with the number of cargo ships falling by 35.8% year-on-year [29] Price Trends - Domestic and international commodity prices have rebounded, with significant increases in gold, copper, and oil prices [40][41] - The second-hand housing market has experienced a notable decline, with first-tier cities seeing a 0.8% drop in listing prices [42] Interest Rates and Financing - Funding rates have slightly increased, with DR001, DR007, and R007 rising by 4.08bps, 5.43bps, and 2.68bps respectively as of November 14 [4][60] - The issuance of local government bonds has been updated, with a total of 102.6 billion yuan planned for the week of November 17 [46]

Core Insights - The article highlights the positive trends in China's fiscal operations from January to October, indicating a steady recovery in revenue and optimized expenditure structure, which supports high-quality economic development and modernization efforts [1][2]. Revenue Summary - From January to October, the national general public budget revenue reached 18.649 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, with a notable monthly growth trend [1]. - Tax revenue was particularly strong, amounting to 15.336 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.7%, while non-tax revenue decreased by 3.1% to 331.26 billion yuan [1]. - Key tax categories showed growth, with domestic value-added tax at 588.58 billion yuan (up 4%) and corporate income tax at 391.82 billion yuan (up 1.9%) [1]. - The securities transaction stamp duty surged to 162.9 billion yuan, marking an 88.1% increase year-on-year, contributing to an overall stamp duty growth of 29.5% [1]. Expenditure Summary - National general public budget expenditure for the same period totaled 22.5825 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2% [2]. - Expenditure allocation favored social welfare and strategic sectors, with social security and employment spending at 377.42 billion yuan (up 9.3%), education spending at 341.17 billion yuan (up 4.7%), and health spending at 168.77 billion yuan (up 2.4%) [2]. - The focus on key areas such as technology, environmental protection, and social welfare demonstrates the government's commitment to stabilizing employment and improving living standards [2]. Policy Direction - The Ministry of Finance emphasizes the importance of proactive fiscal policies during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, aiming to support the realization of socialist modernization [3]. - Key strategies include maintaining a strong expenditure intensity, optimizing fiscal resource allocation towards high-quality development sectors, and ensuring policy coherence across fiscal, monetary, and industrial strategies [3].

行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 18 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | 表1：国债期货11月17日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2512 | 116.070 | 116.220 | 116.450 | 116.460 | 0.380 | 0.33 | 88270 | 103541 | -3316 | | TL2603 | 115.850 | 116.010 | 116 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the steady recovery of national public budget revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 3.2% in October, indicating a positive economic trend [1] - In the first ten months, the total public budget revenue reached 18.65 trillion yuan, growing by 0.8%, with a 0.3 percentage point increase compared to the previous nine months [1] - Tax revenue in October was 2.07 trillion yuan, reflecting an 8.6% growth, which supports the notion of a resilient economy [1] Group 2 - The stamp duty revenue for the first ten months was 378.1 billion yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 29.5%, with securities transaction stamp duty rising by 88.1%, indicating an active capital market [2] - Key industries such as equipment manufacturing and modern services showed strong tax revenue performance, with notable growth in sectors like computer communication equipment manufacturing (12.7%) and scientific research services (14.8%) [2] - Total public budget expenditure for the first ten months was 22.58 trillion yuan, up by 2%, with significant increases in social security and employment (9.3%) and education (4.7%) expenditures [2] Group 3 - Government fund budget revenue decreased by 2.8% to 3.45 trillion yuan, while expenditure increased by 15.4% to 8.09 trillion yuan, driven by accelerated use of bond funds [3] - The article emphasizes the need for continued active fiscal policies to support key expenditures and stimulate effective demand, contributing to economic recovery and sustainable fiscal health [3] - The Ministry of Finance plans to enhance fiscal support in line with major strategic goals, maintaining spending intensity and utilizing various fiscal tools to support economic and social development [3]

装备制造业、现代服务业等行业税收表现良好。前10个月，计算机通信设备制造业税收收入增长12.7%，电 气机械器材制造业税收收入增长7.9%，科学研究技术服务业税收收入增长14.8%，文化体育娱乐业税收收入 增长5.7%。 11月17日，财政部发布数据显示，全国一般公共预算收入月度增幅继续提高，累计增幅稳步回升。10月份， 全国一般公共预算收入2.26万亿元，同比增长3.2%。其中，中央、地方收入分别增长2.3%、4%。前10个月， 全国一般公共预算收入18.65万亿元，增长0.8%，增幅比前9个月提高0.3个百分点。 一般公共预算收入由税收收入和非税收入组成。10月份，全国税收收入2.07万亿元，增长8.6%，增幅与上月 基本持平。"税收收入持续较快增长，显示经济稳中有进对税源形成了有力支撑。"北京国家会计学院副院 长、教授李旭红表示。 前10个月，全国税收收入15.34万亿元，增长1.7%，增幅比前9个月提高1个百分点。其中，国内增值税、国内 消费税、企业所得税、个人所得税分别增长4%、2.4%、1.9%、11.5%，增幅比前9个月分别提高0.4个、0.2 个、1.1个、1.8个百分点。李旭红认为，主要税种 ...

Core Insights - The Ministry of Finance reported an increase in national general public budget revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 3.2% in October, reaching 2.26 trillion yuan [1] - Tax revenue showed a significant increase of 8.6% in October, indicating strong economic support for tax sources [1] - The overall fiscal performance for the first ten months reflects gradual improvement in revenue, strong expenditure support, and continuous structural optimization [3] Revenue Performance - In the first ten months, national general public budget revenue totaled 18.65 trillion yuan, growing by 0.8%, with a 0.3 percentage point increase compared to the previous nine months [1] - Major tax categories such as domestic VAT, consumption tax, corporate income tax, and personal income tax saw growth rates of 4%, 2.4%, 1.9%, and 11.5% respectively, with notable increases in personal income tax [1][2] - Stamp duty revenue reached 378.1 billion yuan, up 29.5%, with securities transaction stamp duty growing by 88.1%, reflecting an active capital market [2] Expenditure Trends - Total national general public budget expenditure for the first ten months was 22.58 trillion yuan, a 2% increase, with significant growth in social security and employment (9.3%), education (4.7%), and environmental protection (7%) [2] - The government is focusing on enhancing fiscal policy and increasing expenditure intensity to support key areas such as education, science and technology, and social security [2][3] Government Fund Budget - Government fund budget revenue decreased by 2.8% to 3.45 trillion yuan, while expenditure increased by 15.4%, primarily due to accelerated use of bond funds [3] - The expenditure of 4.54 trillion yuan from various bond sources is aimed at stabilizing investment and growth [3] Policy Outlook - The government aims to maintain an active fiscal policy, ensuring strong support for key expenditures and expanding effective demand [3] - The recent Party Congress emphasized the importance of fiscal policy in achieving economic and social development goals [3]