Core Viewpoint - The Shaanxi Provincial Government is actively implementing a series of financial policies to support economic growth, enhance public welfare, and ensure fiscal stability amid ongoing challenges [1][2][6]. Financial Policy and Economic Support - Shaanxi has effectively released fiscal policy efficiency, with general public budget expenditure reaching 466.09 billion yuan in the first eight months, with significant increases in spending on science and technology (39.9%), energy conservation and environmental protection (4.7%), social security and employment (4.5%), and education (4.4%) [2]. - The province has utilized various financial tools, including special bonds and subsidies, to support investment and consumption, securing an additional 94 billion yuan in special bonds for key projects [2]. - Structural tax reductions and refunds amounting to 29 billion yuan have been implemented to support technological innovation and manufacturing [2]. Investment in Innovation - Shaanxi has established a 10 billion yuan Science and Technology Innovation Fund to attract long-term investments in hard technology, with four new sub-funds totaling 5.17 billion yuan set up this year [3]. Social Welfare and Employment - The provincial government has allocated 2.48 billion yuan for employment subsidies and vocational training, aiming to stabilize employment [4]. - A total of 27.2 billion yuan has been dedicated to improving educational infrastructure and teacher capabilities, supporting high-quality education initiatives [4]. - Social security standards have been steadily increased, with pension and healthcare subsidies for retirees being raised [4]. Agricultural and Rural Development - Shaanxi has allocated 5.79 billion yuan to support grain production and implement subsidies for farmland protection and agricultural machinery purchases [4]. - An additional 12.71 billion yuan has been earmarked for developing advantageous industries in poverty-stricken areas to enhance local economic resilience [4]. Ecological Protection Initiatives - The province has invested 13.2 billion yuan in ecological protection and restoration projects, focusing on key areas such as the Qinling Mountains and the Yellow River [5]. - A new ecological compensation agreement with Hubei has been signed to enhance cross-province environmental protection efforts [5]. Fiscal Reform and Risk Management - Shaanxi is committed to deepening fiscal reforms to enhance governance and mitigate debt risks, with 73.2 billion yuan in special bonds issued for debt resolution this year [6]. - The province is focusing on improving the efficiency of fiscal management and ensuring that more funds are directed towards public welfare [6].

2025 年 09 月 11 日 锌：区间震荡 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪锌主力收盘价 | 22215 | 0.41% | 伦锌 3M 电子盘收 | 2867 | -0.21% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪锌主力成交量 | 83724 | -16741 | 伦锌成交量（手） | 9280 | 215 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪锌主力持仓量 | 103054 | -5145 | 伦锌持仓量（手） | 201219 | 1496 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 0# 锌升贴水 | -70 | -5 | LME CASH-3M 升 | 17.62 | 1.16 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） ...

Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes the need for a more proactive fiscal policy to stimulate economic growth and improve budget execution efficiency [1][2]. Fiscal Policy and Spending - In the first seven months of the year, the broad fiscal expenditure reached approximately 21.5 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 9.3%, significantly outpacing the fiscal revenue growth of around 0% [2]. - The acceleration of budget execution is aimed at increasing investments in areas such as livelihood, technology, and major projects to stimulate overall economic demand [2]. Government Debt and Financing - The net financing of government bonds in the first seven months amounted to 8.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.88 trillion yuan year-on-year [3]. - The issuance of new special bonds by local governments reached approximately 3.3 trillion yuan in the first eight months, marking a year-on-year increase of 27%, which constitutes about 75% of the planned annual issuance [3]. Consumer and Service Sector Support - The government plans to implement policies to boost consumption, including personal consumption loan interest subsidies and service industry loan interest subsidies, with a subsidy rate of 1 percentage point [3]. - These policies aim to lower the credit costs for residents and service industry operators, thereby stimulating consumption potential [3]. Future Fiscal Focus Areas - The report outlines key fiscal priorities, including supporting employment and foreign trade, fostering new growth drivers, improving livelihood, managing risks in key areas, and enhancing fiscal governance [4].

Group 1 - The implementation of personal consumption loan interest subsidies and service industry loan interest subsidies is set to begin on September 1, with an annual subsidy rate of 1% to support consumption [1] - The monetary policy has been moderately eased, with a 0.5% reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity, and a 0.1% decrease in policy interest rates, keeping loan costs low for enterprises and individuals [1] - By the end of June, the amount of loans signed for technological innovation and technological transformation exceeded 2 trillion yuan, which is 2.4 times the amount at the end of 2024, supporting 1.8 million technology-based SMEs in obtaining their first loans [1] Group 2 - The central government has allocated approximately 90 billion yuan in the budget this year to support local governments in issuing childcare subsidies, benefiting over 20 million families with infants and young children [2] - Starting from the autumn semester, kindergarten tuition fees will be waived for children in the final year, benefiting around 12 million children and reducing the financial burden on families by approximately 20 billion yuan [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the implementation of more proactive fiscal policies in China, which are contributing to stable economic performance, as evidenced by the fiscal data for the first seven months of the year [2][6]. Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - In the first seven months of this year, the total broad fiscal revenue was approximately 15.9 trillion yuan, remaining stable compared to the same period last year [2]. - Broad fiscal expenditure reached about 21.5 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of approximately 9.3% [2]. - The gap between fiscal expenditure and revenue was about 5.6 trillion yuan, which is a year-on-year increase of approximately 47% [2]. Tax Revenue Trends - Tax revenue saw a decline of 3.5% in the first quarter, but this was followed by four months of growth, narrowing the decline to 0.3% for the first seven months [3]. - The increase in tax revenue is attributed to stable growth in VAT and significant increases in securities transaction stamp duty due to active stock market trading [3]. Land Revenue and Local Government Financing - Land transfer revenue for the first seven months was approximately 1.7 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 4.6% [5]. - To maintain expenditure levels, both central and local governments accelerated bond issuance, with net financing of government bonds reaching 8.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.88 trillion yuan year-on-year [5]. Social Spending and Policy Focus - Fiscal spending in the social welfare sector has been prioritized, with expenditures on social security, education, and healthcare growing faster than overall spending [6]. - Recent policies, such as pension increases and childcare subsidies, indicate a focus on investing in human capital [6]. Future Fiscal Policy Outlook - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the need for continued macroeconomic policy support in the second half of the year, with a focus on implementing proactive fiscal policies and maintaining efficient fund usage [6]. - There is a belief that even without extraordinary fiscal measures, the real support for the economy in the second half could match that of the first half, with adjusted fiscal expenditure growth projected between 4.1% and 6.7% [6]. Preparedness for Economic Uncertainty - The Ministry of Finance has indicated that it retains sufficient policy space and tools to respond to potential uncertainties in the economy [7]. - The focus remains on stabilizing employment, businesses, markets, and expectations to support economic development and social stability [7].

Core Insights - The general public budget revenue has shown significant recovery, with a year-on-year growth of 0.1% from January to July, marking the first positive growth this year, indicating economic resilience [2][4][14] - The land market remains sluggish, with government fund budget revenue growth weak, reflecting ongoing challenges in the real estate sector [2][8] - Fiscal expenditure has ramped up, with a broad fiscal expenditure growth rate of 9.3%, the highest level in recent years, driven primarily by central government spending [3][10][14] - The structure of fiscal expenditure is optimizing, with a focus on social welfare and education, alongside new policies aimed at supporting families and boosting consumption [3][12] Revenue Analysis - From January to July, the general public budget revenue growth rate turned positive for the first time this year, with July showing a 2.6% increase, the highest monthly growth rate [2][4] - Tax revenue recovery is a key driver, with personal income tax, domestic VAT, and domestic consumption tax showing year-on-year growth rates of 8.8%, 3.0%, and 2.1% respectively [6][8] Land Market Insights - The government fund budget revenue saw a year-on-year decline of 0.7% from January to July, with July's growth rate slowing significantly to 8.9% [2][8] - Real estate investment continues to decline, with a 12% year-on-year drop in property development investment from January to July [8][10] Expenditure Insights - Broad fiscal expenditure growth reached 9.3%, significantly higher than the previous year's decline of 2.0%, with central government expenditure growing by 33.9% [3][10] - The issuance of government bonds is at a rapid pace, with a total of 9.11 trillion yuan issued from January to July, a 33.8% increase year-on-year [10][12] Policy and Structural Changes - Recent fiscal policies have focused on social welfare, with expenditures in social security, education, and health exceeding 6 trillion yuan, reflecting a commitment to improving living standards [12][14] - New initiatives such as childcare subsidies and free preschool education have been introduced to stimulate consumption and support families [12][14]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the implementation of more proactive fiscal policies to support stable economic operations in China [1][3][5] - In the first seven months of this year, the total revenue from broad finance was approximately 15.9 trillion yuan, remaining stable compared to the same period last year, while expenditures reached about 21.5 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 9.3% [1][2] - The fiscal expenditure exceeded revenue by about 5.6 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of approximately 47%, indicating a significant expansion of fiscal policy [1][2] Group 2 - Tax revenue, often referred to as the "economic barometer," has shown improvement, with stable growth in VAT and a significant increase in securities transaction stamp duty due to active stock market transactions [2][3] - Local government land transfer income has also shown signs of recovery, with land transfer revenue for the first seven months amounting to approximately 1.7 trillion yuan, down 4.6% year-on-year, indicating a narrowing decline [2][3] - The net financing of government bonds reached 8.9 trillion yuan in the first seven months, supporting broad fiscal expenditures, particularly in the areas of social security, education, and healthcare [3][4] Group 3 - The central government has accelerated the issuance of special bonds and policy financial tools, which is expected to maintain a certain level of fiscal expenditure [3][4] - The fiscal policy is projected to continue supporting economic growth, with adjusted fiscal expenditure growth rates estimated between 4.1% and 6.7% for the second half of the year, aligning with economic growth targets of 4.7% to 4.8% [4][5] - The Ministry of Finance has indicated that it will utilize more proactive fiscal policies and reserve tools to address uncertainties and stabilize employment, businesses, and market expectations [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the implementation of more proactive fiscal policies in China, which are contributing to stable economic performance, as evidenced by the fiscal data for the first seven months of the year [1][4]. Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - In the first seven months of this year, the total general fiscal revenue was approximately 15.9 trillion yuan, remaining stable compared to the same period last year [1]. - General fiscal expenditure reached about 21.5 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of approximately 9.3% [1]. - The fiscal expenditure exceeded revenue by about 5.6 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of approximately 47% [1]. Tax Revenue Trends - Tax revenue, often referred to as the "economic barometer," has shown improvement, with stable growth in VAT and significant increases in securities transaction stamp duty due to active stock market trading [2]. - The decline in tax revenue has narrowed, with a year-on-year decrease of only 0.3% for the first seven months, compared to a 3.5% decline in the first quarter [1][2]. Land Sales and Local Government Revenue - The revenue from land sales, a component of local government funds, was approximately 1.7 trillion yuan in the first seven months, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 4.6% [3]. - Major cities have increased the supply of quality land to stabilize the real estate market, contributing to a recovery in land sale revenues [2]. Government Debt and Financing - The net financing of government bonds reached 8.9 trillion yuan in the first seven months, an increase of 4.88 trillion yuan year-on-year [4]. - The government is accelerating bond issuance to maintain fiscal expenditure levels, particularly in social welfare sectors such as social security, education, and healthcare [4]. Future Fiscal Policy Outlook - The central government plans to continue implementing proactive fiscal policies and moderate monetary policies to support economic growth and social stability [6]. - Despite concerns about potential reductions in fiscal spending in the second half of the year, estimates suggest that the adjusted fiscal expenditure growth rate could remain between 4.1% and 6.7% [5].

Group 1 - The article highlights the acceleration of local government special bonds and special treasury bonds issuance, indicating that broad fiscal spending is likely to maintain a certain level of intensity [1][8] - The Ministry of Finance reports that in the first seven months of this year, broad fiscal revenue totaled approximately 15.9 trillion yuan, remaining stable compared to the same period last year, while broad fiscal expenditure reached about 21.5 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 9.3% [2][3] - The fiscal expenditure significantly exceeded revenue by about 5.6 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of approximately 47%, indicating a more proactive fiscal policy [2][3] Group 2 - Tax revenue, often seen as an economic barometer, showed a decline of 3.5% in the first quarter but improved in the following months, resulting in a decrease of only 0.3% in the first seven months [3][5] - The land transfer income for local governments decreased by 4.6% year-on-year, amounting to approximately 1.7 trillion yuan in the first seven months, but the decline is narrowing [5][6] - The net financing of government bonds reached 8.9 trillion yuan in the first seven months, an increase of 4.88 trillion yuan year-on-year, supporting broad fiscal expenditure [7] Group 3 - The central and local governments are accelerating bond issuance to maintain spending expansion, focusing on major projects and risk prevention [6][9] - The recent policies aimed at enhancing social welfare, such as pension increases and childcare subsidies, indicate a shift towards investing more in human capital [7][9] - The central political bureau meeting emphasized the need for sustained macroeconomic policy efforts, including the implementation of more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [7][9]

Core Insights - The overall fiscal performance in the first half of the year showed a stable operation with a more proactive fiscal policy and macroeconomic measures contributing to economic recovery, with a GDP growth of 5.3% [1][2] Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - National general public budget revenue decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, while expenditure increased by 3.4% [1] - Government fund budget revenue fell by 2.4%, but expenditure surged by 30% [1] - Tax revenue has been steadily increasing since April, indicating an improvement in the revenue structure [2] Fiscal Policy Highlights - The fiscal policy has shown structural optimization, increased intensity, strong support, and risk mitigation [2] - Significant growth in special bond issuance by 45% and over 90% of central budget investment allocated [2] - Social security, science and technology, education, and health expenditures increased by 9.2%, 9.1%, 5.9%, and 4.3% respectively, all exceeding overall expenditure growth [2] Challenges and Risks - Structural challenges remain, with weak general public budget revenue due to low prices, real estate adjustments, and limited space for state asset resource activation [3] - Industrial enterprises' profits fell by 1.8% year-on-year, and corporate income tax showed negative growth [3] - The second half of the year may face increased uncertainties, including potential external shocks and domestic demand insufficiencies [3] Future Fiscal Strategy - The primary focus for the second half is to enhance fiscal resource coordination and utilize proactive fiscal policies to stimulate consumption and expand domestic demand [4] - Continued support for consumer goods replacement programs and strengthening social welfare measures are emphasized [4] - The need for timely introduction of incremental policies and coordination of fiscal and monetary tools to support innovation, consumption, and small enterprises is highlighted [5]