Core Viewpoint - The overall fiscal performance in China for the first half of the year shows a stable trend, with a slight decline in revenue but an increase in expenditure, indicating a proactive fiscal policy aimed at supporting economic growth and social welfare [2][3][4]. Revenue Summary - National general public budget revenue reached 11.56 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, with tax revenue at 9.29 trillion yuan, down 1.2%, while non-tax revenue increased by 3.7% to 2.27 trillion yuan [3][5]. - Government fund budget revenue was 1.94 trillion yuan, down 2.4%, with land use rights revenue declining by 6.5% to 1.43 trillion yuan [3]. Expenditure Summary - National general public budget expenditure was 14.13 trillion yuan, up 3.4% year-on-year, with central government expenditure increasing by 9% to 1.99 trillion yuan and local government expenditure rising by 2.6% to 12.14 trillion yuan [4]. - Government fund budget expenditure surged by 30% to 46.27 trillion yuan, with central government fund expenditure increasing by 6.2 times [4]. Debt Issuance and Fiscal Policy - The issuance of national bonds reached a record high of 7.88 trillion yuan, a 35.28% increase, while local government special bonds issued amounted to 2.16 trillion yuan, up 45% [6][7]. - The fiscal policy remains aggressive, with a focus on enhancing local financial support and implementing measures to boost consumption [6][8]. Social Welfare Focus - The fiscal strategy emphasizes social welfare, including the establishment of a childcare subsidy system and support for employment among vulnerable groups [8]. - The government has allocated 66.74 billion yuan for employment assistance and is working to reduce the costs of child-rearing to promote a family-friendly society [8].

Group 1 - The overall fiscal operation in China for the first half of 2025 shows a stable trend, with total public budget revenue at 115,566 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, but the decline rate has narrowed by 0.8 percentage points compared to the first quarter [1][19] - Major tax categories have shown steady growth, with domestic value-added tax, domestic consumption tax, and individual income tax increasing by 2.8%, 1.7%, and 8% respectively [3] - Total public budget expenditure reached 141,271 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, with significant increases in spending on social security, education, science and technology, and environmental protection, all exceeding 5% [22] Group 2 - Central government has allocated 667.4 billion yuan for employment support, continuing to implement policies to reduce unemployment and enhance social insurance subsidies [6] - Basic pension benefits for retirees have been increased by 2%, and the minimum standard for urban and rural residents' basic pension has been raised by 20 yuan [8] - A total of 5,522 billion yuan has been allocated for medical security services, with per capita financial subsidies for basic public health services increasing to 99 yuan per year [11] Group 3 - The issuance of national bonds in the first half of 2025 reached 78,800 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 35.28%, the highest issuance scale for the same period in history [23][25] - The government has initiated a program to support the replacement of consumer goods, with 3,000 billion yuan allocated for this purpose, aimed at stimulating consumption and promoting industry transformation [28]

Core Viewpoint - Beijing's 2024 fiscal budget shows stable growth in revenue and effective expenditure management, supporting the city's economic recovery and social stability [1][2]. Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - The city's general public budget revenue reached 637.27 billion yuan, an increase of 3.1%, with tax revenue accounting for 85.9% [2][3]. - General public budget expenditure totaled 839.65 billion yuan, growing by 5.3%, focusing on key areas such as education, employment, and healthcare [2][5]. Support for Economic Growth - The government implemented tax reductions and refunds exceeding 150 billion yuan to support technological innovation and manufacturing [3]. - New government bonds issued amounted to 121.6 billion yuan, funding major projects in infrastructure and housing [3]. Social Welfare Initiatives - The city introduced a universal childcare subsidy policy, adding nearly 19,000 new childcare places, with a 93% enrollment rate for eligible children [4]. - The minimum living guarantee was raised to 1,450 yuan per month, benefiting over 4 million people [5]. Budget Management and Efficiency - A reduction of 3.03 billion yuan in non-essential expenditures was achieved through strict budget management practices [6]. - The city adopted a comprehensive performance management system to enhance budget execution and monitoring [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The overall fiscal situation in China for the first half of the year shows a stable trend, with a slight decline in revenue but an increase in expenditure, reflecting the implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy to support economic recovery and social welfare [1][2]. Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - National general public budget revenue reached 11.5566 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, with the decline narrowing by 0.8 percentage points compared to the first quarter [1]. - National general public budget expenditure was 14.13 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [1]. Proactive Fiscal Policy - The government continues to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, focusing on accelerating budget approvals and ensuring timely fund allocation [2][4]. - By the end of June, the central government had allocated 9.29 trillion yuan in transfer payments to local governments, accounting for 89.8% of the annual budget, which is an increase of 1.7 percentage points from the previous year [4]. Support for Key Projects - In the first half of the year, 2.6 trillion yuan in new local government bonds were issued to support major projects in key areas [6]. - Special government bonds totaling 500 billion yuan were issued to enhance the core tier-one capital of four major state-owned commercial banks, improving their ability to serve the real economy [6]. Social Welfare and Basic Livelihood - The proactive fiscal policy has supported the enhancement of basic pension guarantees, ensuring timely and full payment of pensions [8]. - Increased funding for basic public health services and urban-rural resident medical insurance has been implemented, along with policies to improve educational resources and support for childcare [8]. Consumer Spending and Employment - A total of 162 billion yuan in special long-term bonds has been allocated to promote consumer spending through trade-in subsidies and to enhance consumer capacity and willingness [10]. - The government has extended unemployment insurance and increased funding for employment support, with 66.74 billion yuan allocated for employment subsidies [12]. Healthcare and Elderly Care - Basic public health service funding per capita has increased to 99 yuan per year, while urban and rural resident medical insurance funding has risen to 700 yuan per year [14]. - Initiatives to enhance elderly care services and establish a childcare subsidy system are underway to reduce family costs associated with child-rearing [16]. Support for Vulnerable Groups - The central government has allocated 156.68 billion yuan for assistance to vulnerable groups, ensuring basic living standards and support for those in need [18]. - Future plans include increasing investment in social welfare to enhance the quality of life for citizens and strengthen the social safety net [20].

Group 1: Core Points of the Draft Regulation - The draft regulation focuses on the comprehensive legal framework for elderly care services in Beijing, addressing the needs of elderly individuals, particularly those who are disabled or suffering from dementia [1][2] - It emphasizes the development of various services such as meal assistance, home care beds, and integrated medical care, while supporting the establishment of medical institutions within qualified elderly care facilities [1][7] Group 2: Responsibilities of Stakeholders - The draft regulation clarifies the responsibilities of different stakeholders in elderly care, including government, market, society, and families, promoting a collaborative approach to address the challenges in elderly care [2][3] - It reinforces the obligation of children to provide financial support, care, and emotional comfort to elderly parents, thereby strengthening the foundation of family-based elderly care [3] Group 3: Service Supply and Infrastructure - The draft regulation aims to expand the supply of inclusive and professional elderly care services, establishing a multi-tiered service network that includes district-level guidance centers, community service stations, and home care services [4][5] - It highlights the need for improved elderly care facilities in new residential areas and the renovation of old neighborhoods to meet the growing demand for elderly services [6] Group 4: Integration of Medical and Elderly Care Services - The draft regulation outlines the integration of medical and elderly care services, ensuring that elderly individuals, especially those with high needs, are included in family doctor services and that qualified elderly care facilities can offer medical services covered by basic health insurance [7] Group 5: Financial and Policy Support - The draft regulation indicates that the government will enhance planning and policy support for elderly care services, optimizing the supply of basic elderly care services and encouraging market participation [3][4] - It also mentions the allocation of significant financial resources to support the development of elderly care services, with a focus on improving the quality and accessibility of these services [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the economic performance in the first half of the year, highlighting a GDP growth of 5.3% and the necessity for continued policy support to achieve the annual growth target of 5% in the second half of the year [2][4][6]. Economic Performance - The actual GDP growth in the first half of the year was 5.3%, with the first quarter at 5.4% and the second quarter at 5.2%, exceeding the annual target [4][6]. - The nominal GDP growth in the second quarter was only 3.9%, with a GDP deflator index decline of 1.2%, indicating persistent supply-demand imbalances [4][6]. Policy Drivers - Economic growth was supported by proactive policies and early implementation of consumption-boosting measures, such as the "trade-in" policy, which significantly improved retail sales in various categories [6][9]. - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5% year-on-year, with categories related to the "trade-in" policy showing substantial growth, such as home appliances and communication equipment [6][9]. Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment grew by only 2.8% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment at 4.6% and manufacturing investment at 7.5%, while real estate investment declined by 11.2% [9]. - Investment in equipment and tools surged by 17.3%, contributing 86% to overall investment growth [9]. Export Performance - Exports showed resilience, with a year-on-year increase of 5.9% in dollar terms, despite a 10.9% decline in exports to the U.S. [13][20]. - Diversification of exports helped mitigate the decline in U.S. exports, with significant growth in exports to Africa, ASEAN, and the EU [13][20]. Economic Concerns - Despite positive growth indicators, there are concerns about potential weaknesses in the economy, particularly in consumer spending, manufacturing investment, and real estate [15][16]. - The "trade-in" policy's impact on consumer spending may weaken in the second half due to lower absolute funding compared to the first half and higher base effects from last year [16]. Policy Outlook - The article anticipates that the second half of the year will see targeted policies rather than large-scale stimulus, focusing on optimizing existing budget allocations and supporting key sectors [27][28]. - Consumption policies may be refined to benefit lower-income groups and address unreasonable restrictions on consumer spending [29]. Investment and Infrastructure - Infrastructure investment is expected to be a key growth driver, with ongoing projects and new policy tools aimed at supporting technology innovation and stabilizing foreign trade [31][32]. - The government is likely to focus on urban renewal and improving housing quality while avoiding excessive stimulus measures [34]. Monetary Policy - A slight reduction in reserve requirements and interest rates may occur, but significant monetary easing is not anticipated in the short term [36][37]. - The stability of the RMB against the USD is expected to be maintained, with potential slight depreciation against other currencies [36][37].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the economic performance in the first half of the year, highlighting a GDP growth of 5.3% and the need for continued policy support to achieve the annual growth target of 5% in the second half of the year. It anticipates the introduction of new policies to stimulate the economy in response to various challenges [1][2]. Economic Performance - The actual GDP growth in the first half of the year was 5.3%, with the first quarter at 5.4% and the second quarter at 5.2%, exceeding the 5% annual target. However, the GDP deflator index fell by 1.2% in the second quarter, marking nine consecutive quarters of negative growth in the index, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [2][3]. - The growth in the first half was primarily driven by proactive policies and early consumer demand stimulation, particularly through the "trade-in" policy, which significantly boosted consumption [3][4]. Consumption and Investment - Social retail sales increased by 5% year-on-year, with notable growth in categories related to the "trade-in" policy, such as home appliances and communication equipment, which saw retail sales growth of 30.7%, 25.4%, 24.1%, and 22.9% respectively [3][4]. - Fixed asset investment grew by only 2.8% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment up by 4.6% and manufacturing investment by 7.5%. However, real estate investment declined by 11.2%. Equipment investment surged by 17.3%, contributing 86% to total investment growth [6][7]. Trade and Export - Exports showed resilience, with a 5.9% year-on-year increase in dollar terms, despite a 10.9% decline in exports to the U.S. The diversification of exports helped mitigate the impact of reduced U.S. demand [9][10]. Economic Concerns - Despite positive data, there are concerns about potential weaknesses in the economy, particularly in consumer spending, manufacturing investment, and real estate. The article notes that the base effect from last year's policies may lead to weaker economic data in the second half [12][14]. - Real estate sales and prices have shown signs of decline, with new housing sales down by 3.5% and sales revenue down by 5.5% year-on-year in the first half [17][18]. Policy Outlook - The article anticipates that the government will focus on targeted policies rather than large-scale stimulus, with an emphasis on optimizing existing budgets and addressing specific economic challenges [20][21]. - Consumption policies may be refined to benefit lower-income groups and stimulate demand, while investment strategies will likely shift towards infrastructure projects to counteract declining manufacturing and real estate investments [22][25]. Monetary Policy - The monetary policy is expected to remain supportive, with potential for minor adjustments such as a small reduction in reserve requirements or interest rates, particularly in response to global economic conditions [26][27]. Structural Issues - The article emphasizes that the main issues facing the Chinese economy are structural rather than total output, suggesting that a focus on domestic and international circulation and supply-demand relationships is crucial for understanding economic pressures [18][29].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate may be in a state where industry expectations are somewhat restored but still weak in reality. There is an accumulation of industrial inventory, and more effective demand is needed to drive industry destocking. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. The technical indicator shows that the 60 - minute MACD has double - lines above the 0 - axis with a shrinking red column. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position oscillatory trading and control risks by paying attention to the trading rhythm [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 72,880 yuan/ton, up 1,600 yuan. The net position of the top 20 is - 148,507 lots, down 1,651 lots. The position of the main contract is 411,638 lots, up 30,453 lots. The spread between near - and far - month contracts is 1,000 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan. The warehouse receipts of GZEE are 9,969 lots, down 270 lots [2] Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 68,000 yuan/ton, up 1,350 yuan. The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 67,450 yuan/ton, up 1,100 yuan. The basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 4,880 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 0 US dollars/ton, down 730 US dollars. The average price of amblygonite is 6,325 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan. The price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 1,878 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 44,100 tons, up 2,000 tons. The monthly import volume is 21,145.78 tons, down 7,190.11 tons. The monthly export volume is 286.74 tons, down 447.55 tons. The monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 52%, up 5%. The monthly output of power batteries is 129,200 MWh, up 5,700 MWh. The price of lithium manganate is 29,000 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 4.93 million yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of lithium cobalt oxide is 222,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of ternary material (811 - type) in China is 144,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of ternary material (622 power - type) in China is 119,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China is 124,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 51%, down 4%. The price of lithium iron phosphate is 3.05 million yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 52%, up 3%. The monthly output of new energy vehicles (according to CAAM) is 1,268,000 vehicles, down 2,000 vehicles. The monthly sales volume is 1,329,000 vehicles, up 22,000 vehicles. The cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles (according to CAAM) is 44.32%, up 0.33%. The cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles is 6,937,000 vehicles, up 1,993,000 vehicles. The monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 205,000 vehicles, down 70,000 vehicles. The cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles is 1.06 million vehicles, up 455,000 vehicles. The 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 21.89%, down 0.38%. The 40 - day average volatility of the underlying is 22.75%, down 0.04% [2] Option Situation - The total subscription position is 194,993 lots, up 11,479 lots. The total put position is 89,197 lots, up 5,667 lots. The put - to - call ratio of the total position is 45.74%, up 0.2267%. The implied volatility of at - the - money IV is 0.35%, up 0.0343% [2] Industry News - Guangdong and Anhui, as strong provinces in automobile manufacturing in China, will standardize the competition order of the new energy vehicle industry, shifting from "price war" to "value war". Xiamen Tungsten New Energy (688778.SH) announced that its operating income in the first half of 2025 was 7.534 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 18.04%, and the net profit was 307 million yuan, a year - on - year increase of 27.76%. The sales volume of lithium cobalt oxide increased by 56.64% year - on - year, and the sales volume of power battery cathode materials increased by 20.76% year - on - year. In the first half of 2025, the national economy showed a stable and positive trend, and the more proactive fiscal policy was effective. In the second half of the year, the fiscal policy will continue to play a leading role in promoting consumption and investment [2]

Domestic News - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project officially commenced on July 19 in Nyingchi, Tibet, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, aiming to construct five tiered power stations primarily for power transmission and local consumption [2] - The Ministry of Finance's Deputy Minister Liao Min announced at the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting that China will implement a more proactive fiscal policy in the second half of the year and expand high-level opening-up [2] Industry News - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) released the list of A-level enterprises for the 2024 annual performance assessment, including major companies such as State Grid Corporation of China and China National Petroleum Corporation [3] - The Lixun Robot Headquarters project broke ground in Changshu with a total investment of 5 billion yuan, expected to achieve an annual output value of 10 billion yuan upon completion [4] - FAW Qiji New Power Technology Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of FAW Group, held its inaugural conference in Changchun, focusing on developing leading technologies in new energy powertrains [4]

Core Viewpoint - The G20 meeting in Durban emphasized the importance of respecting economic development laws, maintaining multilateralism and free trade, and promoting inclusive economic globalization to stabilize the complex global economic system and support global economic recovery [1] Group 1: Economic Stability - China's economic development is showing a steady progress, contributing stability to global economic growth [1] - The internal and external balance of the Chinese economy is in good condition, with domestic consumption accounting for an increasing proportion of GDP [1] - The trade surplus in China's current account is around 2%, which is recognized as a balanced level internationally [1] Group 2: Policy Implementation - In the second half of the year, China plans to implement more proactive fiscal policies and expand high-level opening-up [1]