Group 1 - Economic fundamentals are key factors influencing long-term exchange rate trends, with indicators such as economic growth, employment, and industrial structure reflecting a country's overall economic vitality and development potential [1] - A country's interest rate policy significantly impacts exchange rates, as differences in interest rates between countries guide international capital flows, affecting currency demand and supply [1] - Inflation levels are closely related to exchange rates, where higher inflation relative to other countries can lead to currency depreciation, while lower inflation supports currency stability [1] Group 2 - The balance of international payments is a direct factor affecting short-term exchange rate fluctuations, with a surplus indicating higher demand for a country's currency, leading to appreciation, and a deficit suggesting depreciation [2] - Political stability and geopolitical changes can impact exchange rates, as instability may lead to capital outflows and increased volatility [2] - Market sentiment, driven by investor behavior and expectations about a country's economic outlook, can cause short-term fluctuations in exchange rates [2]

Currency Performance in Asia - In 2025, major Asian currencies showed significant divergence in performance, with the Japanese yen halting a four-year decline against the US dollar, initially rising from 157.7 yen per dollar at the beginning of the year to 140.9 yen per dollar by mid-April, before falling to 155.4 yen per dollar by December 1 [1] - The decline in the yen accelerated after the appointment of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in late October, attributed to his accommodative monetary policy, despite initial gains being driven by a weaker dollar and inflation-induced rate hike expectations in Japan [1] - The South Korean won also stopped its four-year decline but remained at a 16-year low, trading at 1468.63 won per dollar as of December 2 [1] - Other currencies such as the Singapore dollar, Thai baht, and Malaysian ringgit appreciated against the dollar, with increases of 5.4%, over 7.2%, and over 8.2% respectively [1] Renminbi Strength - Since the beginning of 2025, the renminbi has shown strong resilience, with the onshore exchange rate surpassing 7.07 per dollar on December 1, marking a new high since mid-October of the previous year [2] - The strong performance of the renminbi is attributed to a relatively weak dollar and the stable economic fundamentals in China, which support the currency's revaluation [2] - The International Monetary Fund's October report highlighted the resilience of the Asia-Pacific economies in 2025, with economic growth in the first half exceeding expectations despite multiple internal and external challenges [2]

Economic Indicators - The November manufacturing PMI is at 49.2%, showing a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous value, but still below the expansion threshold[9] - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell to 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points, indicating a contraction in the service sector[21] - The construction sector's PMI improved to 49.6%, up 0.5 percentage points, reflecting a recovery driven by policy support[22] Price Dynamics - The PMI input price index for raw materials is at 53.6%, indicating strong price pressures, while the output price index is at 48.2%, below the expansion threshold, highlighting a disconnect in price transmission[14] - The PPI year-on-year growth is estimated to be around -2.5%, down 0.4 percentage points, indicating a divergence from the output price index[19] Profitability and Market Outlook - Industrial profits turned negative at -5.5% in October, primarily due to rising production costs and insufficient demand, which limits the ability to pass on costs to consumers[14] - The short-term economic outlook favors the bond market, with expectations of a moderate decline in interest rates due to the central bank's resumption of bond purchases[28] - Without new policy measures such as rate cuts, the equity market's recovery in industrial profits is expected to remain under pressure[28] Risks - Key risks include rising sovereign debt risks abroad, escalating geopolitical conflicts, and the potential for policy effects to fall short of expectations[3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is driven by multiple factors, including policy guidance, economic fundamentals, and external environment changes [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Guidance - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has been signaling a stronger RMB through the continuous adjustment of the central parity rate, which was set at 7.0796 yuan per dollar, up by 30 basis points from the previous trading day [1]. - The current exchange rate regulation is aimed at promoting a stable environment for foreign trade enterprises, with the CFETS RMB exchange rate index showing moderate upward movement [1]. Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - The RMB's appreciation is supported by robust economic fundamentals, with exports exceeding expectations and a noticeable recovery in the capital markets since July [1]. - Increased demand for foreign exchange settlements from enterprises has boosted market confidence in the RMB, while cross-border capital flows remain stable and orderly [1]. Group 3: External Environment - The Federal Reserve has entered a rate-cutting cycle, with market expectations for another rate cut in December, contributing to a limited upward space for the US dollar index [1][2]. - Weakening US economic data, including slowing retail sales growth and signs of a softening labor market, have heightened concerns about the economic outlook, further supporting the RMB's strength [1]. Group 4: Seasonal Factors - Seasonal factors are also at play, as the fourth quarter typically sees a peak in foreign exchange settlements, maintaining high corporate settlement intentions [2]. - The ongoing trend of cross-border capital inflows provides additional momentum for the RMB's appreciation [2]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The RMB is expected to maintain a steady and strong trend, with limited volatility against the US dollar due to the Fed's rate cut expectations and significant depreciation of the dollar since the beginning of the year [2]. - The RMB's exchange rate is likely to remain stable, exhibiting a reverse fluctuation pattern with the US dollar, with relatively small amplitude [2].

Economic Fundamentals - Economic growth reflected by GDP growth rate influences currency demand and exchange rates, with stable growth attracting international capital and pushing exchange rates up, while slow growth or recession exerts depreciation pressure [1] - Inflation rates affect purchasing power; higher inflation compared to other countries leads to decreased confidence in the currency, resulting in downward pressure on exchange rates [1] - Interest rates are closely linked to exchange rates; higher interest rates attract capital inflow, increasing currency demand and supporting exchange rate appreciation, while lower rates can lead to capital outflow and suppress exchange rate performance [1] Monetary Policy - Central banks use monetary policy as a tool to regulate exchange rates, with the direction and intensity of policy having a direct impact [1] - The revised Foreign Exchange Management Regulations in 2025 enhance the macro-prudential management system, allowing the central bank to stabilize exchange rates through foreign exchange reserves and market operations [1] - Tight monetary policy can enhance currency attractiveness and promote appreciation, while loose policy increases money supply and lowers interest rates, leading to depreciation expectations [1] International Balance of Payments - The balance of payments, particularly the current account, reflects a country's external economic balance; a persistent surplus indicates higher demand for the currency, leading to a strong exchange rate, while a deficit exerts depreciation pressure [2] - Capital and financial accounts show cross-border capital flows; sustained net inflows increase demand for the currency, supporting exchange rate strength, while outflows create pressure [2] Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical stability is crucial for attracting international capital; political turmoil or increased policy uncertainty can lead to capital outflow and currency depreciation [2] - Sudden events like geopolitical conflicts or natural disasters can trigger market risk aversion, causing investors to shift to traditional safe-haven currencies, leading to short-term appreciation of those currencies and depreciation of affected currencies [2] Market Sentiment and Speculation - Market sentiment and speculative behavior significantly influence short-term exchange rate fluctuations; expectations of currency appreciation can lead to buying pressure, while depreciation expectations can trigger sell-offs [2] - Large-scale speculative trading can amplify short-term volatility, especially in high liquidity conditions [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - In October, multiple domestic economic indicators weakened, indicating significant downward pressure on the economy, which suppresses the stock market. The continuous unchanged LPR for six months reflects a prudent monetary policy, with a low possibility of significant reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. Although the phone call between the Chinese and US presidents on the 24th boosted short - term market risk appetite, in the current environment of multiple vacuums in macro data, performance, and policies, it cannot provide continuous upward momentum, and the stock index will maintain a volatile trend [2]. 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Contract Prices**: IF, IH, IC, and IM main and secondary main contracts all increased. For example, the IF main contract (2512) rose to 4473.0, up 29.4; the IH main contract (2512) rose to 2959.2, up 10.4; the IC main contract (2512) rose to 6900.0, up 58.0; the IM main contract (2512) rose to 7172.0, up 60.4 [2]. - **Price Spreads**: Various price spreads such as IF - IH, IC - IF, etc. changed. For instance, the IF - IH current - month contract spread increased to 1513.8, up 23.0; the IC - IF current - month contract spread increased to 2427.0, up 34.6 [2]. - **Seasonal - to - Current Month Differences**: Some seasonal - to - current month differences changed. For example, IF when - season - to - current increased to - 29.0, up 0.2; IH when - season - to - current decreased to - 5.2, down 2.2 [2]. - **Net Positions of Top 20**: The net positions of the top 20 in different contracts changed. For example, the IF top 20 net position increased to - 24,028.00, up 329.0; the IH top 20 net position decreased to - 10,694.00, down 174.0 [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of main contracts decreased. For example, the IF main contract basis decreased to - 17.4, down 4.6; the IH main contract basis decreased to - 9.0, down 2.8 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market Data - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.87%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.53%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.77%. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market turnover increased slightly, and nearly 4300 stocks rose. The communication and media sectors strengthened significantly, while the national defense and military industry and transportation sectors declined [2]. - **Economic Indicators**: In October, domestic imports and exports, fixed - asset investment, social retail sales, and industrial added value of large - scale industries all declined significantly compared to the previous values. The fixed - asset investment declined for 7 consecutive months, and social retail sales declined for 5 consecutive months. The real estate market continued to decline. In terms of financial data, the decline of M1 growth rate was greater than that of M2, and the M1 - M2 scissors - difference ended the 5 - month upward trend. The 11 - month LPR remained unchanged for the 6th consecutive month [2]. 3.3 Industry News - On the evening of November 24, Chinese President Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Trump. Trump said he would visit China in April next year, which boosted short - term market risk appetite [2]. 3.4 Key Events to Watch - November 25, 21:30: US September PPI, core PPI, retail sales - November 26, 21:30: US initial jobless claims for the week ending November 22 - November 26, 23:00: US October PCE, core PCE - November 27, 9:30: China's October industrial enterprise profits above designated size - November 30, 9:30: China's November manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and composite PMI [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) is experiencing fluctuations against the US dollar (USD) due to policy divergence, economic fundamentals, and commodity currency characteristics, with current trading around 0.6485 after a retreat from a high of 0.6580, yet still within a rebound range since 2025 [1] Policy Divergence - The core logic driving the AUD/USD exchange rate is the policy divergence between the US Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The Federal Reserve maintains a high interest rate of 5.25%-5.5%, with October's core PCE inflation at 3.5%, leading to a strong support for the USD as market expectations for rate cuts in 2025 are pushed back [1] - In contrast, the RBA's cautious policy stance, with current rates slightly above 0.5% and October's CPI at 5.4%, reflects growing concerns over economic growth, resulting in a cooling of rate hike expectations. This divergence has widened the 10-year government bond yield spread to -130 basis points, contributing to capital outflows and suppressing the AUD [1] Economic Fundamentals - The economic fundamentals further amplify exchange rate volatility. The US economy shows resilience with a 2.9% year-on-year GDP growth in Q3 and better-than-expected durable goods orders, although manufacturing remains weak, limiting the USD's upside potential [1] - Australia faces challenges with its reliance on resource exports, which account for over 60% of its economy. The November manufacturing PMI declined, and the service sector's expansion could not fully offset industrial weakness, compounded by fluctuating demand from China, its largest trading partner, which further weakens the AUD's fundamental support [2] Technical Analysis - Technically, the AUD/USD is in a corrective phase after a rebound, having risen from the 0.6350 range to a high of 0.6580, but recently fell below the 20-day moving average support, entering a consolidation range of 0.6450-0.6520. The 14-day RSI has dropped to 48, indicating a neutral to bearish trend, while the MACD shows a reduction in bullish momentum without a clear reversal signal [3] - Key support levels are focused on the lower boundary of the ascending channel at 0.6480 and the psychological level of 0.6450. A breach could lead to further declines towards the 0.6430-0.6450 support zone. Resistance is concentrated in the 0.6520-0.6540 range, with a breakthrough needed to alleviate the current downward pressure. Long-term, the AUD/USD remains in an upward trend initiated in 2020, with potential for a new upward cycle if it breaks the 14-year resistance trend line established since 2011 [3]

国泰君安期货研究所· 海 外 研 究 戴璐 Z0021475 国泰君安期货·君研海外 基本面、降息预期和"AI泡沫" ——透视当前海外三大风险点 资料来源：Bloomberg，国泰君安期货研究 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures (本报告感谢杨藤贡献） 日期：2025年11月24 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 三大逻辑点落地，市场如何定价？ 11月以来，全球市场经历较多地缘、宏观和产业逻辑的冲击，主要大类资产表现整体呈现几个特征：1）科技板块引领Risk-on，权益 转向防御；2）缺乏明显有效的避险资产，贵金属高位回落，全球国债市场表现不佳；3）年底市场微观流动性不佳，上风险情绪有限 非官方就业指标指向了本次非农数据改善，制造业PMI、服务业PMI、中小 企业就业和CB就业分项集合指数有改善 当前海外市场的波动源自三大逻辑点：1）经济基本面如何？2）基于基本面，对于短期（12月）和远期（2026年）的降息预期如 何？3）从"AI 泡沫"这一更务虚的叙事，转为对AI投资持续 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic fundamentals and corporate earnings are bearish, with the October economic data showing a weakening trend, including declines in investment growth and real estate prices. Inflation slightly rebounded in October [3]. - The macro - policy is neutral - bullish. The policy news is relatively quiet at the end of the year, and there is less need for further monetary policy tightening in the short term [3]. - Overseas factors are neutral - bearish. Geopolitical tensions may ease marginally, and multiple Fed officials have signaled potential interest rate cuts [3]. - Liquidity is neutral, with the average daily trading volume of A - shares decreasing compared to the previous week [3]. - The investment view is weak and volatile. The A - share market lacks a clear driving force, and it is expected that market differences will be digested during the index's volatile adjustment [3]. - The trading strategy is short - term volatility and long - term bullish, with risks focusing on domestic policies and overseas geopolitical factors [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Influence Factors and Logics** - Economic and corporate earnings: The 1 - 10 cumulative year - on - year decline in fixed - asset investment was 1.7%, with real estate investment down 14.7%, infrastructure investment up 1.51%, and manufacturing investment up 2.7%. Inflation rebounded slightly in October, with CPI up 0.2% year - on - year [3]. - Macro policy: The policy news is quiet at the end of the year, and there is less need for additional monetary policy in the short term [3]. - Overseas factors: Geopolitical tensions may ease, and multiple Fed officials signaled rate cuts, with the market betting the probability of a December rate cut exceeding 50% [3]. - Liquidity: The average daily trading volume of A - shares decreased by 1550.6 billion yuan compared to the previous week [3]. - **Investment and Trading Views** - Investment view: Weak and volatile, lacking a clear driving force, with the average daily trading volume dropping from about 2.5 trillion yuan in October to about 1.7 trillion yuan currently [3]. - Trading strategy: Short - term volatility and long - term bullish, with risks from domestic policies and overseas geopolitics [3] 3.2 Part Two: Stock Index Market Review - **Index Performance** - The CSI 300 fell 3.77% to 4453.6, the SSE 50 fell 2.72% to 2955.9, the CSI 500 fell 5.78% to 6817.4, and the CSI 1000 fell 5.8% to 7067.7 last week [5]. - Most Shenwan first - level industry indices declined, with power equipment, comprehensive, basic chemicals, commercial retail, and steel leading the losses [7]. - **Futures Volume and Open Interest** - The trading volume of CSI 300 futures, SSE 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures increased by 16.77%, 18.96%, 13.60%, and 14.05% respectively [11]. - The open interest of CSI 300 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures increased by 4.16%, 8.40%, and 11.64% respectively, while that of SSE 50 futures decreased by 2.10% [11]. - **Spread Performance** - The CSI 300 - SSE 50 spread was at 1497.8, in the 92.2% historical percentile; the CSI 1000 - CSI 500 spread was at 250.3, in the 42% historical percentile [16]. - The CSI 300/CSI 1000 and SSE 50/CSI 1000 ratios were at 0.6, in the 43.6% and 39.5% historical percentiles respectively [16] 3.3 Part Three: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Liquidity - **Funding and Macro - liquidity** - The central bank conducted 16760 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations and 8000 billion yuan in outright reverse repurchase operations this week, with a net injection of 13540 billion yuan. After considering the maturity of treasury cash deposits, the net injection was 12340 billion yuan [23]. - Next week, 16760 billion yuan in reverse repurchases, 9000 billion yuan in MLF, and 3000 billion yuan in 182 - day outright reverse repurchases will mature [23]. - **Market Volume and Margin Trading** - As of November 20, the margin trading balance of A - shares was 24839.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.3 billion yuan from the previous week [29]. - As of November 20, the margin trading purchase amount accounted for 11% of the total market trading volume, in the 93% percentile of the past decade [29]. - The average daily trading volume of A - shares last week decreased by 1550.6 billion yuan compared to the previous week [29]. - As of November 21, the risk premium rate of the CSI 300 was 5.39, in the 56.9% percentile of the past decade [29] 3.4 Part Four: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Economic Fundamentals and Corporate Earnings - **Macroeconomic Indicators** - In October, GDP was not reported, industrial added - value increased by 4.9% year - on - year, fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, real estate investment decreased by 14.7% year - on - year, and infrastructure investment increased by 1.51% year - on - year [32]. - The CPI in October was 0.2% year - on - year, and the PPI was - 2.1% year - on - year [32]. - The manufacturing PMI in October was 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from September [40]. - **Corporate Earnings** - The year - on - year growth rates of net profit attributable to shareholders of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and other indices varied in different quarters [45]. - The return on equity (TTM) of different indices also showed different trends [45] 3.5 Part Four: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Policy Drivers - **Recent Macro - policy Trends** - Multiple policies have been introduced in various fields such as consumption, real estate, and finance since the beginning of the year, including policies to promote service consumption, issue special treasury bonds for consumer goods replacement, and adjust real estate purchase restrictions [50][51] 3.6 Part Five: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Overseas Factors - **US Economic Data** - The US manufacturing PMI in October was 48.7%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous value; the non - manufacturing PMI was 52.4%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points from the previous value [60]. - The US unemployment rate in September was 4.4%, and the number of new non - farm jobs was 119,000 [60]. - The US PCE and core PCE in September had a year - on - year increase of 0%, and the CPI and core CPI in September had a year - on - year increase of 3% [63]. - **Trump Team's Actions** - Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on imports from multiple countries, including China, Mexico, and Canada, and has made various remarks and actions regarding international relations and economic policies [67]

Group 1 - Economic fundamentals are core factors influencing long-term exchange rate trends, with GDP growth reflecting overall economic vitality, strong growth typically leads to increased corporate profits, job opportunities, and consumer spending, attracting foreign investment and driving currency appreciation [1] - Inflation directly affects currency purchasing power; a country with a persistently high inflation rate compared to others may see its currency's actual value decline in international markets, increasing import costs and reducing export competitiveness, potentially leading to currency depreciation [1] - Unemployment rate is a key indicator of labor market conditions; lower unemployment often correlates with a well-functioning economy, boosting confidence in the currency and supporting the exchange rate [1] Group 2 - Central bank monetary policy operations have a direct and significant impact on exchange rates; raising benchmark interest rates increases the attractiveness of domestic assets, attracting international capital and leading to currency appreciation, while lowering rates may result in currency depreciation [2] - The balance of payments is a critical factor affecting exchange rates; a surplus in the current account indicates increased net income from foreign trade, supporting the domestic currency, while capital outflows can lead to depreciation [2] - Political stability and geopolitical environment influence market confidence in a country's economic outlook; stable countries attract foreign investment, while geopolitical conflicts may lead to capital flight towards safer assets, affecting currency fluctuations [3] Group 3 - Market expectations play a significant role in short-term exchange rate volatility; participants' analyses of economic data and policy directions shape their expectations, which are reflected in trading behaviors, potentially leading to preemptive currency purchases or sales based on anticipated policy changes [3]