Core Viewpoint - Multiple departments released economic data for the first three quarters of the year, covering various sectors including industrial economy, wholesale, and retail [1] Group 1: Economic Data Overview - The economic data reflects the performance of the industrial economy, indicating trends and shifts in production and manufacturing [1] - Wholesale and retail sectors are highlighted, showcasing their contributions to overall economic growth and consumer behavior [1]

Key Points - The article discusses recent economic data from the US, Eurozone, and Japan, highlighting trends in inflation, manufacturing, and consumer confidence [5][15][16] - It notes a mixed economic outlook, with some indicators showing improvement while others indicate a slowdown [6][20] Group 1: Important Data Review - US September CPI increased by 3% year-on-year, below the expected 3.1%, while core CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month, also below expectations [15] - October manufacturing PMI in the US rose to 52.2, indicating expansion, while the consumer confidence index fell to a five-month low of 53.6 [15] - Eurozone manufacturing PMI improved to 50, with service PMI reaching a 14-month high of 52.6, pushing the composite PMI to 52.2 [15][16] - Japan's exports rebounded in September, with a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, while core CPI rose by 2.9%, leading to expectations of potential interest rate hikes [16] Group 2: Weekly Economic Activity Index - The US WEI index fell to 2.16 from 2.50, indicating a decline in economic activity [20] - Conversely, Germany's WAI index rose to 0.05 from -0.02, suggesting a recovery in economic activity [20] Group 3: Demand - US retail sales showed a year-on-year decline, with the Redbook commercial retail sales index at 5.0%, down from 5.9% [24] - Mortgage rates in the US decreased, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate falling to 6.19% from 6.27% [26] Group 4: Prices - Commodity prices increased, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index at 302.98, up 3.3% week-on-week [30] - US gasoline prices decreased to $2.90 per gallon, down 1.2% from the previous week [30] Group 5: Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Eurozone have eased, with the US financial conditions index rising to 0.648 from 0.428 [33] - Offshore dollar liquidity improved, with narrowing swap points for both the yen and euro against the dollar [35][42] - The yield spread between 10-year bonds in Europe has narrowed, indicating a shift in market sentiment [37]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market is entering its third week of government shutdown, experiencing volatility influenced by U.S.-China trade relations [1] - Major indices, including the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones, saw gains by the end of last week, despite daily fluctuations driven by mixed market sentiments [1] - Key economic data, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI) scheduled for release on October 24, will be crucial for assessing economic conditions ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting [1] Economic Data and Corporate Earnings - The ongoing government shutdown has created uncertainty around the release of several economic indicators, including import prices and retail sales [2] - The National Association of Realtors is expected to release September existing home sales data, which may provide insights into the housing market recovery [2] - The corporate earnings season is ramping up, with major companies like Tesla, Intel, Netflix, and Coca-Cola set to report their Q3 earnings this week [2][3] - Tesla's performance is anticipated to be strong due to recent delivery boosts from tax incentives, while Intel's stock has risen following government investments and partnerships with Nvidia [3] Trade Relations and Market Sentiment - Recent trade tensions have heightened market risk aversion, particularly following new export controls from China and threats of increased tariffs from the U.S. [4] - The rare earth sector has seen volatility due to these trade disputes, despite being a recent market winner [4] - Trump's fluctuating policy signals regarding tariffs have added complexity to the supply chain landscape, with new tariffs on medium and heavy trucks set to take effect on November 1 [4] Commodity Markets - Gold prices have risen for nine consecutive weeks, currently trading around $4,240 per ounce, reflecting its status as a safe-haven asset amid trade tensions [5] - Analysts suggest that if foreign investors shift a small percentage of their U.S. assets to gold, prices could soar to $6,000 per ounce [5] - The oil market is facing expectations of oversupply, with Brent crude prices down approximately 2.3% and WTI down 2.8% over the past week [6] - OPEC+ has increased production targets, contributing to a rise in oil stored on tankers, which has reached over 1 billion barrels [6] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its forecast for global oil surplus in 2026 to 4 million barrels per day, indicating a significant increase in expected oversupply [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The slowdown of deposit relocation does not mean it has ended. Further data observation is needed as the YoY growth rate of non - bank deposits remains at a relatively high level, and there are seasonal disturbances. Asset relocation may continue due to factors such as the high economic base and trade frictions in Q4 [2][14] - The bond market is likely to remain weakly volatile. A defensive approach is recommended, with control over the duration level, and seizing allocation and trading opportunities after adjustments [3][15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review Summary and Bond Market Outlook - This week, the bond market showed a "first decline then rise" trend. The 10Y and 30Y Treasury bond rates changed by +0.4bp and -3bp respectively. Market sentiment was affected by factors such as US - China negotiation signals, stock market trends, and economic data [10] - Deposit relocation accelerated in July and August but slowed down in September. It is still too early to conclude that it has ended [11][14] - The bond market is expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended to focus on defense, control the duration, and choose to allocate certificates of deposit and short - term interest - rate bonds [15] 3.2 Bond Market Review 3.2.1 Fundamentals - The central bank had a net withdrawal this week, and the capital interest rate increased. Next week, the maturity volume of reverse repurchases is less than that of the previous week [16] - The R001 and DR001 increased by 5bp and 1bp respectively compared to October 11th. The 3M certificate of deposit issuance rate first rose, then fell, and then rose again [18] 3.2.2 Secondary Market Trends - Bond yields first rose and then fell. Except for the 7Y, 20Y, and 30Y Treasury bonds, the yields of other key - term Treasury bonds increased. Most of the term spreads of Treasury bonds narrowed [26] - The spread between new and old 10Y Treasury bonds first widened and then narrowed, the spread of 10Y China Development Bank bonds widened negatively, and the spread of 30Y Treasury bonds narrowed [29][30] 3.2.3 Bond Market Sentiment - The median duration of the full - sample bond funds slightly increased. The turnover rate of ultra - long bonds increased, and the 30Y - 10Y Treasury bond spread narrowed rapidly. The inter - bank leverage ratio rose to 107.6%, and the exchange leverage ratio decreased to 122.4%. The implied tax rate of 10 - year China Development Bank bonds slightly narrowed [33] 3.2.4 Bond Supply - This week, the net financing of interest - rate bonds decreased. Next week, the issuance scale of Treasury bonds will increase, and the 10Y Treasury bond 250016.IB will be re - issued. The issuance scale of local government bonds will also increase [48][51] - The net financing of certificates of deposit increased this week, and the average issuance rate rose to 1.63% [53] 3.3 Economic Data - In September, the import and export growth rates significantly rebounded, and prices generally recovered. The YoY decline of the freight rate index slowed down in October, and industrial production improved marginally [59][60] - The YoY growth rate of non - bank deposits declined in September, and the M1 growth rate increased [60] 3.4 Overseas Bond Market - The release of key US inflation data was postponed due to the government "shutdown." The expectation of a Fed rate cut in October has increased again, mainly due to the weak employment market [69] - US bonds rose, and most emerging markets had more gains than losses [70] 3.5 Major Asset Performance - The Shanghai Gold Index performed the best, followed by Chinese - funded US dollar bonds, Chinese bonds, the US dollar, convertible bonds, Shanghai Copper, rebar, the CSI 300 Index, live pigs, the CSI 1000 Index, and crude oil [74] 3.6 Policy Review - On October 17th, multiple policies were introduced, including promoting logistics cost reduction, expanding green trade, adjusting the Hainan duty - free shopping policy, and more. These policies aim to support economic development and stabilize market expectations [77][82]

Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In the first three quarters, the national general public budget revenue reached CNY 163,876 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%[2] - Tax revenue amounted to CNY 132,664 billion, growing by 0.7% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue decreased by 0.4% to CNY 31,212 billion[2] - Total expenditure for the first three quarters was CNY 208,064 billion, up 3.1% year-on-year, with central government expenditure increasing by 7.3% to CNY 31,008 billion and local government expenditure rising by 2.4% to CNY 177,056 billion[2] Monthly Trends - In September, general public budget revenue increased by 2.6% year-on-year, up from 2% in the previous month, with tax revenue showing a significant rise of 8.7% compared to 3.4% previously[3] - Non-tax revenue in September fell sharply by 11.4%, worsening from a decline of 3.8% in the prior month[3] - General public expenditure in September also improved, growing by 3.1% year-on-year, compared to just 0.8% in August[3] Fiscal Policy and Economic Impact - The fiscal policy strength index indicates a continued decline in fiscal policy effectiveness, despite a rebound in major tax categories, suggesting potential economic recovery[25] - The government plans to utilize CNY 500 billion in policy financial tools and CNY 500 billion in local debt limits to stimulate the economy in Q4[26] - The total local debt limit is expected to shrink to less than CNY 800 billion by year-end, following the recent allocation of CNY 5 trillion for local government financial support[26] Budget Completion Status - As of September, the completion rate for general public budget revenue was 7.1%, higher than the same period in the previous two years[6] - Cumulative general public expenditure growth was 3.1%, below the budget target of 4.4%, necessitating a quarterly increase of approximately 7.4% in Q4 to meet the annual goal[14]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The possibility of a trend - weakening in the bond market is low, and yields are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation pattern. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for unilateral trading [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Factors - **Liduo Factors**: The capital market is balanced and slightly loose, with the central bank's net injection supporting market liquidity. After the bond market became desensitized to the stock market, it generally rose. The marginal weakening of economic data and the continuation of supply - demand contradictions provide core support for the bond market [2] - **Likong Factors**: The issuance of 50 - year ultra - long - term special treasury bonds was poor, triggering market concerns. Strong overseas risk appetite put pressure on the bond market [2] 3.2 Market Data - **Yield**: Data on 2Y, 5Y, 7Y, 10Y, and 30Y treasury bond yields from 2024/04 to 2025/08 are presented [3] - **Funding Rate**: Data on deposit - type institutional pledged repurchase weighted average rates (1 - day and 7 - day) and 7 - day reverse repurchase rates from 2023/12 to 2025/06 are presented [3] - **Term Spread**: Data on treasury bond term spreads (7Y - 2Y and 30Y - 7Y) from 2024/04 to 2025/08 are presented [4][5] - **Futures Position and Trading Volume**: Data on the positions and trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are presented [7][8] - **Futures Basis**: Data on the basis of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures' current - quarter contracts are presented [9][11][12][14] - **Futures Inter - period Spread**: Data on the inter - period spreads (current - quarter minus next - quarter) of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are presented [18][20] - **Futures Inter - variety Spread**: Data on the inter - variety spreads (TS*4 - T and T*3 - TL) of treasury bond futures are presented [21][22]

#报告 高盛：对9月中国经济数据、第三季度GDP以及四中全会的预测 https://t.co/mRgjtbvh8ONone (@None):None ...

Group 1 - The consumption market during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays showed strong growth, with total domestic travel expenditure reaching 809 billion CNY, an increase of 108.19 billion CNY compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - Daily sales revenue in consumption-related industries increased by 4.5% year-on-year, with goods and service consumption growing by 3.9% and 7.6% respectively [1] - The market for digital products and automobiles experienced rapid growth during the holiday period [1] Group 2 - Precious metals maintained a strong performance during the holiday but saw a significant decline afterward, likely due to profit-taking from a rapid short-term increase [2] - Geopolitical tensions eased with the announcement of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, which may have influenced market sentiment [2] - Concerns over the U.S. fiscal deficit and debt continue to drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, with central banks, particularly in China, increasing their gold reserves [2] Group 3 - The U.S. stock indices experienced a decline, while the first trading day after the National Day holiday saw a positive opening for stock indices, led by the non-ferrous metals sector [3] - The financing balance decreased by 34.06 billion CNY to 2.37839 trillion CNY as of September 30 [3] - The domestic liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, with increased allocation to equity assets by residents and potential inflows of external capital due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] Group 4 - The double coke market showed fluctuating trends, with inventory levels remaining stable despite a significant increase in social inventory due to the holiday [4] - The increase in inventory was primarily driven by rebar, and there are concerns about the market's acceptance of high-priced resources post-holiday [4] - Upcoming policy expectations related to "anti-involution" are anticipated to provide support for prices in the double coke market [4] Group 5 - The industrial sector for small and medium enterprises in China showed stable economic performance in the first eight months of the year, with an increase in value-added output of 7.6%, outperforming large enterprises by 3.3 percentage points [8] - The development of specialized and innovative small and medium enterprises has been particularly strong, with a year-on-year increase of 8.7% in value-added output [8] Group 6 - The National Development and Reform Commission announced measures to regulate price competition and maintain a fair market price order, emphasizing the need for businesses to adhere to fair pricing principles [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the report. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively analyzes overseas and domestic macro - dynamic trends during the National Day holiday. Overseas, the US government shutdown, economic data fluctuations, and changes in market expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts are the main focuses. Domestically, A - shares show a structural market, and the bond market maintains an oscillating pattern. Meanwhile, the National Day holiday sees a significant increase in cross - regional passenger flow, a boost in the tourism market, and a stable performance in the movie market [12][5][6][7][8]. Summary by Directory 1. Overseas Macro - dynamic Tracking 1.1 Overseas Assets: Equity Rallies, Gold Hits New High - During the National Day holiday, the expectation of two more Fed rate cuts this year strengthened, leading to a decline in the 2Y US Treasury yield. The US government shutdown pushed up the term spread, and gold prices soared to a record high. OPEC+ considering increased production in the next three months caused oil prices to fall. - Global major stock indices mostly rose. The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq increased by 1.19%, 0.82%, and 1.49% respectively in the week up to October 6. - In the commodity market, gold, silver, and copper prices rose, while oil prices fell. The US dollar slightly increased, and the euro and yen against the US dollar declined [13][15]. 1.2 Overseas Politics: Focus on the US Government Shutdown - The US federal government shut down on October 1 due to the Senate's rejection of the Republican's temporary appropriation bill. The probability of this shutdown lasting until October 15 or later is 70%. - The government shutdown may impact GDP through consumption, business operations, and government spending. Historical data shows that previous shutdowns led to a decline in GDP growth rates [19][22][23]. - Other political hot - spots include new US tariffs, the Trump administration's plan to end the Gaza conflict, and the Supreme Court's ruling on the Fed official's dismissal [24]. 1.3 Economic Data: US Employment and PMI - US JOLTS job openings in August were higher than expected, with an increase mainly in healthcare and accommodation & catering, and a significant decline in construction and the federal government. - US ADP employment in September was significantly lower than expected, with a decrease of 32,000 people, the largest decline since March 2023. - The US ISM manufacturing PMI in September was slightly higher than expected, but new order demand was weak. The ISM services PMI was significantly lower than expected, with a sharp decline in business activity and new orders [27][29][34]. 1.4 Fed: Market Rate - cut Expectations Strengthen - Fed officials had different stances during the holiday. Logan and Goolsbee were hawkish, while Milan was dovish. - Market expectations for two more rate cuts this year strengthened. As of October 3, the probability of 25bp rate cuts in October and December was 86.3%, up from 65.4% a week ago [37][38][39]. 2. Domestic Macro - dynamic Tracking 2.1 Domestic Assets: A - shares' Structural Market, Bond Market Maintains Oscillating Pattern - In late September, A - shares were led by the technology - growth sector. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and STAR 50 Index all rose. Looking ahead, A - shares will continue the structural market driven by policies and liquidity. - The bond market is in an environment where negatives outweigh positives, with interest rates likely to oscillate. Short - term bonds are stable, while ultra - long - term bonds are weak [41]. 2.2 National Day Passenger Flow: Cross - regional Passenger Volume Hits a New High - During the first half of the 2025 National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday (up to October 4), the cross - regional passenger volume reached about 1.25 billion person - times, a 5.7% increase from the previous year, with a daily average of over 310 million person - times [6]. 2.3 National Day Tourism: Travel Radius Further Expands - The 8 - day holiday boosted both domestic and outbound tourism. Long - distance outdoor consumption demand was evident, and outbound tourism continued to heat up. For example, bookings for trips to Russia increased nearly three - fold after the visa - free policy, and the top 10 popular outbound destinations included Japan, Thailand, etc. [7][47]. 2.4 Off - line Consumption: National Day Movie Market Remains Stable - As of 17:28 on October 6, the total box office (including pre - sales) of the 2025 National Day movie season exceeded 1.5 billion yuan, slightly lower than last year. The average ticket price decreased, and the market remained stable due to price concessions and diversified supply [8][50].

Economic Data Impact - The government shutdown has paused the release of all economic data, including crucial jobs and inflation reports, which the Federal Reserve relies on for monetary policy decisions [1][2] - The absence of federal economic data is creating challenges for the Fed, making it difficult to assess the labor market accurately [2][3] Labor Market Indicators - Initial claims and the ADP report indicate a weaker labor market, but these data points are considered noisier and less reliable than the comprehensive reports from the Labor Department [3][6] - The unemployment report is incomplete without the unemployment survey, limiting the Fed's ability to gauge the actual unemployment rate [5][6] Stock Market Reactions - The stock market appears to be reacting positively to the government shutdown, possibly due to expectations of lower interest rates, despite ongoing concerns about inflation [8][9] - Core PCE inflation was reported just under 3% before the shutdown, and there is an expectation that it may trend upward [9] Bank Mergers and Regulatory Environment - Fifth Third's planned acquisition of Comamera for over $10 billion is indicative of a changing regulatory environment and a trend towards regional bank mergers to achieve economies of scale [10][11][12] - The potential for larger regional banks raises concerns about financial stability and the implications of having "too big to fail" institutions [14] Economic Outlook - The government shutdown could shave a few basis points off GDP, compounded by the uncertainty surrounding government employee layoffs and buyouts [15][16] - The overall economic impact may be more significant due to low consumer confidence and the potential for reduced spending [17]