Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.26% to 4101.91 points, while the Shenzhen Component decreased by 0.18% and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.2%[1] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed down 0.29% at 26844.96 points, with the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.11% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down 0.50%[1] - The total market turnover in Hong Kong was 2550.786 million HKD[1] Economic and Policy Developments - President Trump announced a 10% tariff on eight European countries starting February 1, increasing to 25% in June unless a Greenland acquisition agreement is reached[12] - The EU is reportedly discussing retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. in response to these measures[12] - Market speculation has shifted towards Kevin Walsh as a potential new Federal Reserve Chair, reducing expectations for interest rate cuts this year[12] Financial Data Insights - The U.S. Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.17% to 49359.33 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both decreased by 0.06%[1] - Bloomberg forecasts that China's Q4 GDP growth may slow to 4.5%, down from 4.8% in Q3, marking a three-year low[12] - The one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is expected to remain stable at 3.00%, with the five-year LPR also unchanged at 3.50%[12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term bond market may face downward pressure. Small - position active participation in band trading after adjustments, emphasizing reverse operations. Consider the market's concerns about factors such as the supply pressure of ultra - long - term government bonds in Q1, the impulse of credit issuance at the beginning of the year, and the continuous rise of equity and commodity prices. Long - term bonds may continue to be under pressure. The strategy is mainly based on short - duration carry strategies, and small - position participation in band trading after adjustments [3][15]. - Next week, the capital market will face phased pressure, but the pressure during the tax period is expected to be controllable. It is necessary to pay attention to the central bank's capital injection during the tax period [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Review and Outlook of the Bond Market - This week, under the combined effects of equity market adjustment, policy game, and capital market fluctuations, the bond market oscillated and recovered with increased volatility. The yields of 10Y and 30Y government bonds changed by - 4bp and + 0.1bp respectively. The capital price first rose and then fell due to the reserve payment day and the delayed release of outright repos [10][11]. - Next week, the capital market will face phased pressure. The net withdrawal of the open - market will increase to 1.1015 trillion yuan, and the government bond issuance scale will increase to 706.6 billion yuan. However, due to the relatively late Spring Festival this year and the structural interest rate cut, the capital pressure is expected to be controllable [2][14]. 3.2 Bond Market Review 3.2.1 Funding: Central Bank Net Injection, Funding Rates First Up Then Down - This week, the central bank's open - market net injection was 81.28 billion yuan. From January 12th to January 16th, the central bank injected 951.5 billion yuan and had 138.7 billion yuan of reverse repos mature. The capital price first rose and then fell. R001 and DR001 rose by 3bp and 5bp respectively compared with January 9th [19][20]. 3.2.2 Secondary Trend: Oscillating Downward, Increased Volatility - This week, yields oscillated downward with increased volatility. Except for 3M and 30Y, the yields of other key - term government bonds declined. Except for 5Y - 3Y and 50Y - 30Y, the term spreads of other key - term government bonds widened. As of January 16th, the yields of 10Y and 30Y government bonds changed by - 4bp and + 0.1bp respectively compared with January 9th [27]. 3.2.3 Bond Market Sentiment: Widening of 30Y - 10Y Government Bond Spread, Recovery of Bond Fund Duration - From January 12th to January 16th, the weekly turnover rate of 30Y government bonds dropped to 37%. As of January 16th, the 50Y - 30Y government bond spread narrowed by 1.9bp compared with January 9th, and the 30Y - 10Y government bond spread widened by 3.7bp. The inter - bank leverage ratio slightly decreased to 108.1%, and the exchange leverage ratio decreased to 123.2%. The median duration of medium - and long - term pure - bond funds recovered, and the divergence decreased [33]. 3.2.4 Bond Supply: Increase in Government Bond Issuance Scale Next Week - This week, the net financing of interest - rate bonds decreased and turned negative, with a net financing of - 174.4 billion yuan. The net financing of government bonds and local government bonds decreased, while that of policy - bank bonds increased. Next week, the planned issuance of government bonds is 475 billion yuan, and the planned issuance of local government bonds is 231.6 billion yuan [49][52][53]. 3.3 Economic Data: Improvement in Real Estate Transactions, Weak Performance in Automobile Consumption - In December, imports and exports ended at a high level. The growth rate of social financing slightly declined, and household credit remained weak. Since January, real estate transactions have improved, and automobile consumption has been weak. High - frequency data shows that new - home transactions have turned positive month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline has narrowed. Thirteen - city second - hand housing transactions have increased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline has narrowed. Automobile consumption has turned negative both month - on - month and year - on - year [58][59]. 3.4 Overseas Bond Market: Cooling of Core Inflation in the US in December - In December, the core inflation in the US cooled down. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation was further dampened. Overseas bond markets showed that US bonds declined, and emerging markets mostly declined. This week, the 2Y US bond yield rose 5bp to 3.59%, and the 10Y US bond yield rose 6bp to 4.24%. The 10Y - 2Y US bond spread widened from 64bp on January 9th to 65bp [68][69]. 3.5 Major Asset Classes: Strength in Shanghai Gold and Crude Oil, Adjustment in Shanghai Copper - The CSI 300 index slightly adjusted this week. As of January 16th, 2026, it closed at 4731.9 points, down 0.57% from January 9th. This week, Shanghai gold, the Nanhua Pig Index, and the Nanhua Crude Oil Index rose, while Shanghai copper weakened. The performance of major asset classes was: Shanghai gold > Pig > CSI 1000 > Crude oil > Rebar > US dollar > Chinese bonds > Chinese - funded US dollar bonds > Convertible bonds > CSI 300 > Shanghai copper [75]. 3.6 Next Week's Bond Market Calendar - The calendar includes information on liquidity injection and maturity, government bond supply, fundamental data, and important domestic and international events from January 19th to January 25th, 2026 [80].

Group 1: US Labor Market - Initial jobless claims decreased by 9,000 to 198,000, below all economists' expectations [1][7] - Continuing claims for unemployment benefits were 1.884 million, slightly below the expected 1.893 million [1][7] - The four-week moving average of initial claims fell to 205,000, the lowest level in two years [1][7] Group 2: German Economy - Germany's GDP grew by 0.2% in 2025, marking its first annual growth since 2022, driven by household consumption and government spending [2][8] - The growth comes after two consecutive years of contraction, with investment declining and trade negatively impacting growth [2][8] - There are concerns about the sustainability of this economic recovery despite optimistic expectations regarding government spending on military and infrastructure [2][8] Group 3: Currency Markets - The US Dollar Index rose to a six-week high, trading around 99.30, supported by strong economic data and optimistic comments from Federal Reserve officials [4][10] - The Euro weakened against the dollar, trading near 1.1610, influenced by the stronger dollar and weak economic data from the Eurozone [5][11] - The British Pound fell to a four-week low, trading around 1.3380, pressured by the strong dollar and technical selling after breaking below the 1.3400 support level [6][12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Euro is currently under pressure against the US Dollar, primarily due to strong US economic data and a robust Dollar index, despite positive industrial output data from the Eurozone [1][2]. - Eurozone industrial output for November increased by 0.7% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations, but this improvement is seen as insufficient to reverse the overall downtrend of the Euro [2]. - The Dollar index has recently stabilized above 99.25, providing strong support for the Euro's downward trend, with market expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates in the 3.50%-3.75% range [1][2]. Group 2 - The Eurozone's economic recovery is perceived as lacking momentum, with the manufacturing PMI indicating weak manufacturing sentiment, which contributes to the Euro's inability to sustain upward momentum [2]. - The current trading environment is characterized by a "strong Dollar pressure + limited Eurozone positives" scenario, with short-term downward risks dominating [2]. - Traders are advised to closely monitor US economic data and Federal Reserve statements, as well as Eurozone economic indicators, to assess the potential for a trend reversal in the Euro [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article provides a comprehensive investment calendar for 2026, detailing important economic data release dates and significant meetings to assist investors in navigating the investment landscape effectively [1]. Economic Data Release Schedule - The calendar includes key economic indicators such as GDP reports, LPR quotes, and PPI/CPI data for both China and the United States, with specific dates highlighted for each release [3][4][6]. - Important dates include the release of China's economic annual report in December 2025 and the quarterly GDP reports for 2025 [3][4]. Significant Meetings and Events - The calendar outlines major meetings such as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings in the U.S. and the National People's Congress in China, which are crucial for understanding policy directions [8][10][11]. - Events like the Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholder meeting and the World Internet Conference are also noted, indicating their potential impact on market sentiment [20][40]. Market Observations - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of public funds and the disclosure deadlines for annual and quarterly reports, which can influence investment decisions [12][14][15]. - It highlights the significance of the MSCI index adjustments and the implications for market dynamics [10][20]. Seasonal and Holiday Considerations - The calendar notes holiday breaks for A-shares, U.S. stocks, and Hong Kong stocks, which can affect trading volumes and market activity during those periods [4][8][19]. - It also mentions the impact of major events like the Chinese New Year and the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on market behavior [27][28].

Group 1: Gold Market Overview - Gold futures opened at $4,467.10 per troy ounce, reflecting a 0.1% increase from the previous day's closing price of $4,462.50, but have since declined by 0.89% after market open [1] - The one-year gain for gold as of December 29 was 74.5%, with a weekly increase of 3.1% and a monthly increase of 6.2% [3][8] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Interest Rates - The ADP Employment Report indicated that the U.S. economy added 41,000 jobs in December, following a loss of 29,000 jobs in November, although analysts had anticipated a larger rebound of 48,000 jobs [1] - The U.S. Factory Orders report for October showed a decline of 1.3%, missing expectations by 10 basis points [1] - Current expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at 3.50% to 3.75% during the next decision on January 28, with an 86.2% probability of no change [2] Group 3: Investment Opportunities in Gold - Gold does not pay interest, but potential interest-rate reductions could lower the opportunity cost of holding gold, making it more attractive to investors [2] - There are opportunities for investors to explore top-performing companies in the gold industry using screening tools available on platforms like Yahoo Finance [4]

Core Conclusion - The article highlights that the initial and continuing unemployment claims in the U.S. have decreased and are better than expected. It also notes the decline in overseas commodity prices and the continuous drop in U.S. gasoline prices. Upcoming important economic data includes December non-farm payrolls, ISM manufacturing PMI, and ISM services PMI [2]. Group 1: Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data releases for the week of January 5-9 include the U.S. December ISM manufacturing PMI on January 5, ISM services PMI on January 7, and non-farm payrolls on January 9. In the Eurozone, the December CPI preliminary data will be released on January 7, followed by November PPI and unemployment rate on January 8, and November retail sales on January 9 [3][4]. Group 2: Weekly Economic Activity Index - The U.S. economic activity index remains stable, with the WEI index at 2.23% for the week ending December 27, 2025, compared to 2.21% the previous week. In Germany, the WAI index has shown an upward trend, rising to 0.14% for the week ending December 21, 2025, from 0.1% the previous week [5][18]. Group 3: Demand - U.S. Redbook commercial retail sales year-on-year growth has rebounded to 7.6% for the week ending December 26, 2025, up from 7.2% the previous week. Additionally, the mortgage loan rate in the U.S. has slightly decreased, with the 30-year mortgage rate at 6.15% as of December 31, 2025, down from 6.18% the previous week [6][20][23]. Group 4: Employment - Initial unemployment claims in the U.S. fell to 199,000 for the week ending December 27, 2025, better than the expected 218,000. Continuing claims also decreased from 1.913 million to 1.866 million, against an expectation of 1.902 million [7][25]. Group 5: Prices - Commodity prices have declined, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.9% as of January 2. U.S. gasoline prices also continued to drop, reaching $2.69 per gallon for the week ending December 29, 2025, down 1.1% from the previous week [8][31]. Group 6: Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the U.S. and Eurozone have marginally tightened. The Bloomberg financial conditions index for the U.S. was 0.795 on January 2, down from 0.807 the previous week. In the Eurozone, the index decreased to 1.619 from 1.651 [14][33]. Group 7: Fiscal - The U.S. federal funding expenditure for the calendar year 2025 is approximately $7.765 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.8%. This is an increase from $7.34 trillion in 2024, which had a growth rate of 3% [10][45].

Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to end December 2025 with an "11 consecutive days of gains," primarily benefiting from a recovery in risk appetite and increased volume in ETFs, particularly the CSI A500 [1][5] - The Hong Kong stock market showed strength during the New Year holiday, attributed to southbound capital inflows, RMB appreciation, and intensive catalysts in the semiconductor industry, which may positively influence A-shares after the New Year [1][5] - The liquidity environment before the Spring Festival is likely to remain favorable, with the market expected to continue its upward trend, although some volatility may occur in January [1][5] Group 2 - Seasonal trends suggest that February has the highest probability of market gains, with historical data from 2008 to 2025 indicating that February, July, and November are the months with the highest likelihood of market increases, often coinciding with policy changes [2][6] - In years where the Spring Festival occurs later, the market may perform better before the holiday compared to after, contrasting with earlier years where pre-holiday performance tends to be weaker [3][7] - Historical data shows that significant fluctuations in Q1 are often influenced by major economic turning points or substantial changes in household financing, with examples from various years illustrating the impact of policy and economic conditions on market performance [3][7]

Group 1 - Wall Street is showing signs of recovery as earnings reports and economic data are released following the holiday season [1] - Key earnings reports are expected from Acuity (AYI), Applied Digital (APLD), Cal-Maine Foods (CALM), and Constellation Brands (STZ) [2] - A busy schedule of economic data is set for the week, including the ISM manufacturing index and auto sales on January 5 [2][3] Group 2 - The S&P U.S. services PMI for December is scheduled for January 6, along with a speech from Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin [3] - January 7 will see the release of the ADP employment report, ISM services index, job openings, and U.S. factory orders [3] - January 8 will feature weekly jobs data, U.S. trade deficit, productivity, and consumer credit reports [3] - January 9 will be particularly busy with the U.S. employment report, including unemployment rate and hourly wages, as well as housing starts and consumer sentiment survey [4]

Economic Indicators - Swiss KOF Economic Leading Indicator for December will be released at 16:00 [1] - U.S. FHFA House Price Index for October and S&P/CS 20-City Composite Home Price Index year-on-year will be published at 22:00 [1] - Chicago PMI for December will be available at 22:45 [1] Oil and Energy Sector - Total U.S. oil rig count for the week ending January 2 will be reported at 02:00 [1] - API crude oil inventory for the week ending December 26 will be released at 05:30 [1] Federal Reserve - The minutes from the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting will be published at 03:00 [1]