1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The inflation in the US is in line with expectations, and the trading patterns of short - and long - term bonds are differentiated. The market expects a 25bp interest rate cut in the September meeting and three rate cuts throughout the year. In the European and Japanese markets, Japanese bonds are stable, while German bonds rise due to hawkish signals. In other major asset classes, global stock indices generally rise except for Russia, cryptocurrencies and precious metals lead the rally in commodities, and there are significant differences in the performance of different currencies against the RMB [4][22][23]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 This Week's Overseas Macro - Interest Rate Review 3.1.1 Macroeconomic Indicator Review - **Employment**: The US employment market shows further signs of weakness. The number of initial jobless claims increases by 27,000 to 263,000, the highest since October 2021, higher than the market expectation of 235,000 [1][12]. - **Inflation**: The US PPI unexpectedly drops month - on - month in August, with service costs falling by 0.2%. The core CPI remains high, with a month - on - month increase of 0.3% and a year - on - year of 3.1% in August. The overall CPI rises more than expected, with a month - on - month increase of 0.4% and a year - on - year of 2.9% in August [2][13]. - **Business Index**: The US EIA crude oil inventory data shows an unexpected increase. The inventory increases by 3.939 million barrels to 424.6 million barrels, against the market expectation of a 1.9 - million - barrel decrease [3][14]. 3.1.2 Review of Major Overseas Market Interest Rates - **US**: From September 5th to September 12th, 2025, the 1 - year and 10 - year US Treasury bond rates fluctuate by +1bp and - 4bp to 3.66% and 4.06% respectively. The long - and short - term trading patterns are differentiated. The long - term is traded around the recession narrative, and the short - term is traded around the expectation of the number and amplitude of interest rate cuts. The 3 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year US Treasury auctions have strong, strong, and relatively stable demand respectively [4][15][16]. - **Europe and Japan**: Japanese bonds are stable, with the 1 - year and 10 - year rates fluctuating by +0.9bp and +0.4bp to 0.70% and 1.59% respectively. German bonds rise due to hawkish signals from the European Central Bank, with the 2 - year and 10 - year rates fluctuating by +6.00bp and - 1.00bp to 2.02% and 2.70% respectively [22]. 3.2 Review of Other Major Asset Classes - **Equities**: Global major stock indices generally rise, except for the Russian market. South Korea (+5.94%), Japan (+4.07%), and Hong Kong (+3.82%) perform strongly, while Russia (-2.13%) is the only market with negative growth [23]. - **Commodities**: Cryptocurrencies and precious metals lead the rally. Bitcoin rises by 4.87%, London silver by 3.72%, and London gold by 1.57%. Some industrial products are under pressure, such as the pig index, rebar, coke, etc. [24]. - **Foreign Exchange**: European and Japanese currencies rise against the RMB, while the US dollar and most Asian currencies show small fluctuations. The Russian ruble drops significantly by 4.04% against the RMB [25]. 3.3 Market Tracking - **Government Bond Interest Rates**: The report shows the interest rate fluctuations of 1 - year and 10 - year government bonds in major economies such as the US, Japan, Germany, etc. [33]. - **Stock Indices**: It presents the weekly and historical percentile changes of major global stock indices, showing that most markets are at relatively high historical levels [35]. - **Commodities**: It shows the price changes of major commodities and their historical percentile levels, indicating significant differentiation in performance [38]. - **Foreign Exchange**: It displays the exchange rate changes of major global currencies against the RMB and their historical percentile levels [40]. - **Economic Data Panels**: It includes economic data panels of the US, Japan, and the Eurozone, covering GDP, inflation, employment, and business sentiment indices [42][49][54].

Economic Growth - Russia's GDP grew by 1.2% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [1] Natural Gas Production - Total natural gas production decreased by 3.3% year-on-year to 382.9 billion cubic meters [1] - Ural Federal District produced 303 billion cubic meters, down 4.6% [1] - Far Eastern Federal District produced 31.4 billion cubic meters, down 8.6% [1] - Siberian Federal District produced 27.4 billion cubic meters, up 26.7% [1] - Volga Federal District produced 11.2 billion cubic meters, down 2.4% [1] - Southern Federal District produced 7 billion cubic meters, down 11% [1] - Northwestern Federal District produced 2.8 billion cubic meters, down 6.1% [1] - North Caucasian Federal District produced 0.148 billion cubic meters, down 16.4% [1] Coal Production - Total coal production increased by 0.6% year-on-year to 248 million tons [1] - Anthracite production decreased by 2.1% to 12.6 million tons [1] - Coking coal production decreased by 8.6% to 59.5 million tons [1] - Lignite production increased by 7.9% to 56.7 million tons [1] - Other coal types increased by 2.7% to 119 million tons [1] Metallurgy - Gold production increased by 4.2% [1] - Aluminum production increased by 2.9% [1] - Steel production decreased by 6.1% [1] - Non-alloy steel ingots and semi-finished products decreased by 2.5% [1] - Pig iron production decreased by 0.7% [1] Fertilizer Production - Fertilizer production increased by 6% [2] - Ammonia production increased by 4.2% [2] Automotive Industry - Passenger car production increased by 0.5% [2] - Truck production decreased by 27.4% [2] Electricity Generation - Total electricity generation decreased by 2% to 692 billion kilowatt-hours [2] - Thermal power generation decreased by 0.7% to 448 billion kilowatt-hours [2] - Nuclear power generation increased by 1.7% to 123 billion kilowatt-hours [2] - Hydropower generation decreased by 10.1% to 116 billion kilowatt-hours [2]

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) is currently trading around 0.65 against the US dollar, showing a slight decline of 0.08% from the previous close of 0.6541 [1] - Strong economic data from Australia, including a 0.6% quarter-on-quarter GDP growth and a 1.8% year-on-year growth, has contributed to the recent strength of the AUD [1] - The hawkish comments from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock suggest that the central bank may not significantly cut interest rates if domestic consumption continues to grow, which has bolstered bullish sentiment for the AUD [1] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that the AUD/USD pair is slightly above an upward trend line, suggesting an overall bullish outlook [2] - The pair is trading above the 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating strong short-term price momentum [2] - Potential resistance levels for the AUD/USD are at 0.6568 (monthly high from August 14) and 0.6625 (nine-month high from July 24), while initial support levels are at 0.6502 (9-day EMA) and 0.6498 (50-day EMA) [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline in U.S. stock indices amid concerns over the Trump administration's tariff policies and ongoing weak manufacturing data, highlighting the impact on investor sentiment and market performance [3][5]. Market Performance - On September 2, major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 249.07 points to 45295.81, a decrease of 0.55%. The S&P 500 fell 44.72 points to 6415.54, down 0.69%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 175.92 points to 21279.63, a decline of 0.82% [3]. - Large tech stocks mostly weakened, with Nvidia down 1.95%, Amazon down 1.60%, Tesla down 1.35%, and Apple down 1.04%. The real estate sector was the worst performer, with the S&P 500 real estate index falling 1.7% [4]. Economic Data - The ISM manufacturing index for August recorded 48.7, indicating contraction for the sixth consecutive month. The output index fell significantly to 47.8, while orders rose above the neutral line, but employment and price components remained weak [5]. - The market is closely watching the upcoming non-farm payroll data to assess the labor market's continued cooling [5]. Federal Reserve Expectations - The FedWatch tool indicates a 92% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the September policy meeting [6]. Individual Stock Movements - PepsiCo's stock rose 1.1% after Elliott Management disclosed a $4 billion stake and proposed active shareholder actions, which may lead to improved governance and capital allocation [6]. - Kraft Heinz's stock plummeted 7% following the announcement of plans to split into two companies focusing on grocery and condiment products [6]. Commodity Market - Oil prices continued to rebound, with WTI crude futures up 2.47% to $65.59 per barrel and Brent crude futures rising 1.45% to $69.14 per barrel [6]. - Gold futures reached a new all-time high, closing up 2.16% at $3592.2 per ounce, driven by geopolitical and policy uncertainties increasing demand for safe-haven assets [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of various sectors in the Chinese economy, highlighting fluctuations in production, demand, and infrastructure investment, while also noting the impact of seasonal factors and policy constraints on these trends. Group 1: Power Generation - As of August 28, the cumulative power generation from coal-fired power plants decreased by 1.3% year-on-year, which is lower than the 3.9% decline in July [1][6] - The Three Gorges Reservoir's inflow data showed a significant narrowing of the decline in August compared to July, suggesting that hydroelectric power generation may exceed July levels [1][6] Group 2: Industrial Production - The operating rates in the industrial sector showed mixed results, with upstream production slightly slowing down month-on-month but generally improving year-on-year [7][8] - As of the fourth week of August, the operating rate of high furnaces increased by 6.8 percentage points year-on-year, while the operating rate for coking enterprises rose by 4.5 percentage points [7][8] Group 3: Steel Production - Major steel mills maintained a stable average daily production of rebar at around 2.2 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of over 27% due to low base effects [10] - Hot-rolled coil production also remained stable at approximately 3.2 million tons per day, with a year-on-year change turning positive [10] Group 4: Infrastructure Investment - The funding availability rate for construction projects continued to recover, reaching 59.2% as of August 26, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5 percentage points [11][12] - The cement dispatch rate recorded 38.1%, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.1% despite a month-on-month decline [11][12] Group 5: Real Estate Market - Real estate sales continued to show weakness, with a year-on-year decline of 9.9% in the average daily transaction area across 30 major cities in August [15][16] - The number of second-hand housing transactions in 82 cities increased by 24.5% year-on-year, indicating some recovery in the market [16] Group 6: Automotive Sector - Retail sales of passenger vehicles grew by 3% year-on-year in August, a slowdown from the previous 7% growth, attributed to high base effects from last year [19] - The wholesale volume of passenger vehicles increased by 12% year-on-year, maintaining a steady growth trend [19] Group 7: Container Throughput - Container throughput at domestic ports showed a year-on-year growth of 10.2% from August 4 to August 24, indicating strong export activity [21] - The average cargo throughput also increased by 6.3% year-on-year during the same period [21]

Group 1: U.S. Economic Policy - The Trump administration announced a plan to impose a 50% tariff on Indian products and indicated high tariffs on imported furniture[1] - U.S. new home sales in July fell 0.6% to an annualized rate of 652,000, exceeding market expectations of 630,000[1] - The U.S. Q2 GDP annualized growth rate was revised to 3.3%, higher than the expected 3.1%[1] - The core PCE price index for July rose 2.9% year-on-year, the highest since February 2025, matching expectations[1] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September increased from 75% to 86.4%[1] Group 2: European Economic Policy - The Eurozone economic sentiment index fell to 95.2 in August, down from 95.7 in July, breaking previous market expectations for a slight recovery[1] - The European Commission proposed legislative measures to implement tariff reductions on U.S. industrial goods and ensure U.S. tariff reductions on EU automobiles[1] Group 3: Global Market Performance - Global stock markets showed mixed performance, with most Asian markets rising while European and U.S. markets faced pressure[1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 3 basis points to 4.23%, while 20-30 year yields rose, indicating inflation concerns[1] - Gold prices increased due to rising concerns over the credibility of the U.S. dollar amid the Federal Reserve appointment controversy[1]

Core Viewpoint - The article provides a calendar of key economic data releases, highlighting important indicators for both the US and China, which are essential for investors to monitor market trends and make informed decisions [1]. Economic Data Summary - The article lists significant economic indicators for August and September, including: - US Manufacturing PMI for August - US Non-Farm Employment and Unemployment Rate for August - China's Foreign Exchange Reserves for August - China's Import and Export data for August - China's M2, Social Financing, CPI, and PPI for August - US CPI for August - China's Industrial Output, Investment, and Retail Sales for August - US Retail Sales for August - Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting [4][5]. Additional Information - The article mentions the release of China's Industrial Enterprises Profits for August and the official Manufacturing PMI for September [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of gold and dollar prices, highlighting the struggle of gold prices to break the $3400 resistance level despite a weak dollar, and the potential market movements anticipated in early September due to upcoming economic data [1][10]. Gold Market Analysis - On Wednesday, the international spot gold price opened at $3392.39, reaching a high of $3398.61 and a low of $3373.51, closing at $3396.59, with a slight increase of $3.34 or 0.1% [1]. - Gold continues to show relative strength among precious metals, being the only one with a positive change, despite the overall lack of significant price movements [4][6]. - The market appears to be waiting for key economic data in early September, which may influence future price trends [4][6]. Dollar Index Analysis - The dollar index opened at 98.21, peaked at 98.73, and closed at 98.17, reflecting a decrease of 40 points or 0.04% [3]. - The dollar's technical indicators suggest a potential for a rebound, but caution is advised as the market may be in a phase of technical weakness [8][10]. - The current dollar index is below the 120-week and 250-week moving averages, indicating a weakened market condition compared to earlier in the year [10][11]. Technical Indicators - The article notes a "bottom divergence" in the dollar index, suggesting a potential bullish signal, but the rebound has been weak, failing to break the 20-week moving average resistance [9][10]. - The Bollinger Bands for the dollar index are tightening, indicating an imminent technical shift, but the direction remains uncertain [8][10]. - The dollar's current position suggests that even if a new bottom forms, it may not lead to a strong mid-term bullish trend as seen in previous years [10][11]. Implications for Precious Metals - A continued weak dollar could benefit gold and silver prices, potentially leading to increased inflationary pressures in the U.S. economy [13]. - The article suggests that a weak dollar may support the commodity market, but the balance between benefits and drawbacks remains a topic of debate [13].

Group 1 - The recent movements in the global bond market are focused on the Federal Reserve's policy direction, with Powell hinting at a potential interest rate cut as early as next month [1] - The U.S. Treasury prices have risen significantly, leading to the steepest yield curve steepening in nearly four years, which has improved market sentiment [1] - Market skepticism remains regarding the extent and sustainability of potential rate cuts, with futures pricing indicating an approximately 80% probability of a 25 basis point cut at the September 17 meeting [4] Group 2 - Investors are awaiting key employment and inflation data to confirm the monetary policy direction, indicating that future market movements will depend on upcoming macroeconomic indicators [4] - The two-year U.S. Treasury yield dropped significantly to 3.7%, close to the low point earlier this month, following a jobs report that showed a notable slowdown in employment growth [4] - The interest rate swap market is beginning to price in the possibility of two rate cuts within the year, with some investors even betting on three cuts [4] Group 3 - Despite a positive reaction in the bond market to Powell's statements, the magnitude of this response remains limited due to conflicting economic signals [6] - The labor market shows signs of weakening, while inflation remains at a high level, forcing the Federal Reserve to weigh risks when considering policy easing [6] - The upcoming personal consumption expenditures price index will be crucial; if inflation pressures remain strong, market confidence in further easing may be challenged [4][6] Group 4 - Attention is also required for the upcoming U.S. Treasury auctions covering two-year, five-year, and seven-year bonds, as investor subscription rates will reflect long-term interest rate outlooks and gauge risk appetite [6] - The uncertainty persists, as even with the Fed's easing measures last year, economic resilience led to a pause in actions at the beginning of this year [6] - The bond market's current positive response to Powell's remarks is contingent on future data performance, with employment and inflation being key determinants of the Fed's policy path [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating but gives individual outlooks for each metal: - Copper: Expected to show an oscillating pattern [8][9] - Alumina: Under pressure and expected to oscillate [10] - Aluminum: Expected to oscillate and decline in the short - term, with a range - bound trend [12][13] - Aluminum Alloy: Expected to oscillate in the short - term, with potential for price spread recovery [13][14] - Zinc: Expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term and decline in the long - term [15][16] - Lead: Expected to oscillate [17][18] - Nickel: Expected to oscillate widely in the short - term and hold a short position in the long - term [19][21] - Stainless Steel: Expected to maintain a range - bound trend in the short - term [24] - Tin: Expected to oscillate, with increased volatility possible in August [25][26] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The overall demand for non - ferrous metals is gradually weakening, and prices are under pressure to oscillate. In the short - to - medium term, the weak US dollar supports prices, but the demand - weakening risk is increasing. In the long term, potential domestic stimulus policies and supply disruptions in some metals support prices. For specific metals, their prices are affected by factors such as macroeconomic data, supply - demand relationships, and policy changes [1]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - **Viewpoint**: Sino - US tariff suspension extension leads to high - level oscillation of copper prices. - **Analysis**: Sino - US suspend 24% tariffs for 90 days; Fed keeps interest rates unchanged; copper production increases; spot premiums decline; inventory rises. - **Logic**: Macro - level risk preference rises, but raw material supply is tight, and demand is in the off - season with limited inventory accumulation. - **Outlook**: Copper may oscillate due to supply constraints, low inventory, weakening demand, and potential tariff impacts [8][9]. 3.1.2 Alumina - **Viewpoint**: Spot prices decline slightly, and warehouse receipts increase, leading to pressure on alumina prices to oscillate. - **Analysis**: Spot prices in various regions decline slightly; overseas transactions occur; warehouse receipts increase. - **Logic**: Smelter production capacity recovers, resulting in an oversupply and increasing inventory. - **Outlook**: Consider shorting at high levels based on warehouse receipt changes [10]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: Spot prices are at a discount, and aluminum prices oscillate and decline. - **Analysis**: Spot prices, inventory changes, and corporate performance are presented. - **Logic**: US retail data is weak, and domestic economic data slows. Supply is stable, while demand is in the off - season, and inventory accumulates. - **Outlook**: Observe short - term consumption and inventory accumulation, with prices expected to range - bound [12][13]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: Tax refund policy tightening leads to oscillating prices. - **Analysis**: Price data, production project information, and policy changes are provided. - **Logic**: Supply and demand are both weak. Supply is affected by policy tightening, and demand is in the off - season. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term, with potential for price spread recovery [13][14]. 3.1.5 Zinc - **Viewpoint**: Declining ferrous metal prices lead to oscillating and declining zinc prices. - **Analysis**: Spot prices, inventory changes, and new project information are given. - **Logic**: Macro - level is slightly negative. Supply is loosening, and demand is in the off - season. - **Outlook**: Zinc prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term and decline in the long - term [16][17]. 3.1.6 Lead - **Viewpoint**: Stable cost support leads to oscillating lead prices. - **Analysis**: Price data, inventory changes, and market supply - demand conditions are presented. - **Logic**: Spot premiums are stable, supply and demand are both weak, and cost support is strong. - **Outlook**: Lead prices are expected to oscillate due to economic data and supply - demand balance [17][18]. 3.1.7 Nickel - **Viewpoint**: Fluctuating market sentiment leads to wide - range oscillation of nickel prices. - **Analysis**: Inventory changes, new policies, and corporate events are provided. - **Logic**: Market sentiment dominates, and fundamental factors are weakening. - **Outlook**: Nickel prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short - term and hold a short position in the long - term [19][21]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: Significant increase in warehouse receipts leads to continued price correction. - **Analysis**: Warehouse receipt changes, spot prices, and new policies are given. - **Logic**: Cost increases, production declines, and inventory shows a structural surplus. - **Outlook**: Stainless steel prices are expected to range - bound in the short - term, depending on demand, inventory, and cost [24]. 3.1.9 Tin - **Viewpoint**: Declining Indonesian refined tin exports lead to high - level oscillation of tin prices. - **Analysis**: Inventory changes and spot prices are presented. - **Logic**: Supply is tight, but demand weakens in the second half of the year. - **Outlook**: Tin prices are expected to oscillate, with increased volatility possible in August [25][26]. 3.2行情监测 The report provides information on the performance of the non - ferrous metals index, including today's, recent 5 - day, recent 1 - month, and year - to - date changes, showing a decline in the short - term and an increase since the beginning of the year [143].