Interesting. Kevin Hanks live at the CBOE for our pre-built playbook is with us. Of course, we're waiting on the PCE at 10 a.m. Let's uh first just start big picture. How you feeling this Friday morning.>> Good morning, Nicole. Yeah, we seem to be cruising into the end of the week with big events on the horizon. The Fed meeting that will be obviously the announcement.Do they cut. Will it be will there be dissents. Then Jerome Pal's press conference.Then we get the uh summary of economic pro projections that ...

#报告 数据过剩时代的新法则——如何像饮食一样精选经济数据。 https://t.co/htYmBT1QZcNone (@None):None ...

未经季节性调整的申请人数更是骤降近5万人，至19.7221万人，远超模型预期，主要集中在加州、德州 和纽约州等地。同时，续请失业金人数也减少4000人，至193.9万人，虽然仍居高不下，但整体显示劳 动力市场处于维持状态，并未陷入停滞的危险。 周四数据显示，美国上周初请失业金人数远低于经济学家预期，降至逾三年来最低水平，现货白银遭资 金获利了结，最终收跌2.32%，报57.09美元/盎司。 【最新白银行情解析】 本周白银抛售潮源于价格抛物线式上涨至纪录高位后，交易员纷纷锁定收益。当杠杆头寸平仓时，此类 行为通常会加速——算法交易与止损订单进一步放大卖盘，加剧价格压力。回调速度表明投机性持仓可 能正在减少，这往往是市场进入盘整阶段的前兆。 短期市场情绪还对强劲的美国经济数据及美联储官员言论敏感，后者淡化了激进降息预期。实际利率上 升会降低白银等无收益资产的吸引力，政策制定者的任何鹰派表态都可能延长短期压力。对活跃交易员 而言，即便长期基本面仍具支撑，短期市场也可能维持负面动能。 北京时间周五(12月5日)亚盘时段，现货白银小幅上涨，截至发稿，现货白银暂报57.22美元/盎司，上涨 0.22%，最高触及57.27 ...

Group 1 - The international precious metals market experienced a strong start in December, with gold prices reaching a six-week high of $4,232.12 per ounce and silver prices hitting a record high of $58.854, reflecting an annual increase of over 100% [2] - The optimism in the market is primarily driven by expectations of a shift in monetary policy, with an 87% probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December, supported by dovish comments from Fed officials [2][3] - The volatility in gold prices is influenced by multiple factors, including interest rates, the strength of the dollar, central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and economic data releases [3] Group 2 - Central banks globally have shown a strong demand for gold, with a net purchase of 53 tons in October, marking a 36% month-on-month increase, which provides a solid long-term support for gold prices [3] - The market is currently characterized by a "gold weak, silver strong" dynamic, with gold prices experiencing some profit-taking pressure due to a stable dollar index [2][3] - The company, 巨象金业, leverages AI technology and financial analysis to provide investors with unique data-driven insights and market analysis, enhancing decision-making capabilities [4][9] Group 3 - 巨象金业 emphasizes the importance of secure trading environments, with all transactions regulated by the Hong Kong Gold Exchange, ensuring client funds are independently stored [6] - The company offers various incentives for new clients, including free account opening bonuses and trading rebates, to facilitate entry into the gold trading market [6] - The analysis team at 巨象金业 provides daily customized insights and strategies to help investors understand market dynamics beyond short-term fluctuations [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The British pound is experiencing a slight decline against major currencies, influenced by expectations of interest rate cuts from the Bank of England and new tax announcements from the UK government [1][3]. Economic Indicators - The UK job market shows signs of weakness, with employment growth slowing and inflation rates decreasing, leading investors to anticipate a 25 basis point rate cut by the Bank of England to 3.75% [3]. - The UK government plans to implement a tax increase of £26 billion by the fiscal year 2029-30 to address fiscal deficits, which has contributed to a decline in UK government bond yields [3]. Market Dynamics - The GBP/USD exchange rate is stabilizing around 1.3230, with the dollar weakening due to expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in the upcoming policy meeting [3]. - The US dollar index (DXY) has reached a two-week low of approximately 99.30, reflecting a broader trend of dollar weakness [3][4]. Technical Analysis - The GBP/USD pair is consolidating around the 1.3224 level, with a bullish reversal pattern forming, although the 200-day EMA at 1.3265 remains a significant resistance point [6]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 52.75, indicating a neutral to bullish momentum, suggesting potential upward movement if the 200-day EMA is decisively broken [6].

Monetary Policy - Federal Reserve officials signaled a dovish stance, with support for a rate cut in December from officials like Waller and Daly[9] - Economic data showed a slowdown in U.S. retail sales and durable goods orders, indicating weakened consumer momentum[9] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 4 basis points to 4.02% as markets continued to price in rate cut expectations[23] European Central Bank - The European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to maintain current interest rates, citing economic resilience and stable inflation[10] - Market expectations indicate a low probability of further rate cuts in 2025, with a 40% chance of a cut by the end of 2026[10] Economic Data - U.S. retail sales grew by only 0.2% in September, significantly lower than August's 0.6%[13] - Durable goods orders increased by 0.5% in September, down from 3.0% in August, with non-defense orders rising just 0.1%[13] - Eurozone economic sentiment index rose to 97.0 in November, up from 96.8 in October, indicating improved economic confidence[22] Fiscal Policy - The UK government announced an additional £26 billion in taxes, raising the overall tax burden to 38% of GDP by the end of the parliamentary term[12] - The largest revenue increase will come from freezing the personal income tax threshold, expected to generate £12.7 billion by the 2030-31 fiscal year[12]

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【每周经济观察】海外周报第 116 期 美国初请失业金人数好于预期 主要观点 本周海外重要经济数据和事件回顾 美国：9 月零售销售和 11 月咨商局消费者信心指数低于预期。1）经济方面， 9 月耐用品订单环比初值 0.5%，预期 0.5%，前值从 2.9%上修至 3%。2）消费 方面，9 月零售销售环比 0.2%，预期 0.4%，前值 0.6%。11 月咨商局消费者信 心指数 88.7，预期 93.3，前值从 94.6 上修至 95.5。3）通胀方面，9 月 PPI 环 比 0.3%，预期 0.3%，前值-0.1%，同比 2.7%，预期 2.6%，前值从 2.6%上修至 2.7%。 欧元区：消费方面，11 月消费者信心指数-14.2，预期-14，前值-14.2。 日本：10 月工业产值好于预期、失业率略高于预期，11 月东京 CPI 基本符合 预期。1）经济方面，10 月工业产值环比初值 1.4%，预期-0.6%，前值 2.6%。 2）就业方面，10 月失业率 2.6%，预期 2.5%，前值 2.6%，求人倍率 1.18，预 期 1.2，前值 1.2。3）通胀方面，11 月东 ...

Group 1 - The fixed income market anticipates a new Federal Reserve Chair in 2026, with expectations of interest rate cuts during the eight scheduled FOMC meetings [1][4] - The current federal funds rate is between 3.75% and 4%, with projections suggesting it may drop to around 3% by December 2026, although it could range from 2% to 4% [2] - The FOMC will update its economic forecasts starting in March 2026, with scheduled meetings on January 28, March 18, April 28, June 17, July 29, September 16, October 28, and December 9 [2] Group 2 - The potential new Chair, likely to be a proponent of rate cuts, is expected to be nominated by President Trump, with Kevin Hassett as a leading candidate [3] - FOMC decisions will heavily rely on economic data, particularly employment figures, which are currently mixed, with inflation slightly above the 2% target and unemployment rising but not alarming [3] - The outcome of employment data in 2026 will significantly influence the Fed's policy direction, as differing views among policymakers exist regarding the labor market's impact on the economy [3][4]

Core Insights - The U.S. government shutdown has ended, and delayed economic data will be released, marking a critical period for market recalibration [1] - Key economic indicators such as employment, inflation, and manufacturing metrics will provide insights into the economy's true state, influencing market expectations [1] - The Federal Reserve's internal concerns regarding persistent inflation and financial stability are rising, with upcoming meeting minutes and speeches expected to impact asset performance [1] Economic Data and Market Impact - The release of delayed economic data next week will reveal the underlying economic conditions, potentially reigniting expectations for monetary easing if the data is weak [1] - Conversely, strong data could delay any policy shifts from the Federal Reserve, affecting the direction of interest rates and the dollar [1][2] - The market is likely to experience volatility as traders reassess their positions based on the new data and policy signals [3] Market Behavior and Asset Performance - In a fluctuating risk environment, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields may remain strong if data is robust and interpreted as a sign of tighter policy [2] - Gold prices may face pressure but could rebound if economic signals are weak, although structural limitations on its price recovery remain [2] - The stock market is expected to see increased opportunities, but with notable sector rotation, particularly among high-valuation tech and interest-sensitive sectors [2] Trading Strategies - Maintaining flexible positions is crucial during this data-heavy and policy-uncertain phase to allow for adjustments [4] - Traders should focus on volatility opportunities surrounding data releases and significant speeches, potentially employing cross-market hedging strategies [4] - Setting clear stop-loss and take-profit levels at key technical points is essential to manage risks effectively [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The negative weekly new employment figures from the US ADP private - sector, upcoming US economic data, Japan's economic stimulus plan, the weakening of digital currency prices, global debt expansion, fiscal deficit expectations, and geopolitical risks may support the rebound of precious metal prices in the short - term and provide medium - to long - term support [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metal Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price was 930.22 yuan/gram, with a change of - 28.76 yuan compared to the previous period. The trading volume was - 22,326.00, and the inventory was 90,426.00 (in ten - gram units) [1]. - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price was 11,697.00 yuan/ten - gram, with a change of - 273.00 yuan. The trading volume was 623,148.00, and the inventory was 563,671.00 (in ten - gram units) [1]. - **COMEX International Gold**: The closing price of the active contract was 4067.40 dollars/ounce, with a change of 22.30 dollars. The trading volume was 231,322.00, and the inventory was 37,224,744.19 (in troy ounces) [1]. - **COMEX International Silver**: The closing price of the active contract was 50.54 dollars/ounce, with a change of 0.13 dollars. The trading volume was 75,851.00, and the inventory was 465,535,121.46 (in troy ounces) [1]. 3.2 Important Information - The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending October 18 was 232,000. The average weekly reduction in private - sector employment in the US for the four - week period ending November 1 was 2,500 [1]. - Trump has selected candidates for the Fed chair, and the US Treasury Secretary said the candidates have been narrowed down to five [1]. 3.3 Long - Short Logic - The negative weekly new employment figures from the US ADP private - sector, the uncertainty of future expectations due to upcoming US economic data, Japan's economic stimulus plan, and the weakening of digital currency prices may lead to a rebound in precious metal prices [1]. - Global debt expansion, fiscal deficit expectations, and geopolitical risks will support precious metal prices in the medium - to long - term [1]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - In the short - term, lightly go long on the main contracts at low prices. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3850 - 3950 and the resistance level around 4180 - 4384. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 870 - 890 and the resistance level around 960 - 1000. For London silver, note the support level around 38 - 45 and the resistance level around 52 - 55. For Shanghai silver, pay attention to the support level around 10,000 - 11,000 and the resistance level around 12,400 - 13,000 [1].